Ep. 1609 - Why I Voted For Trump
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The night America's fate is decided. As the final votes are counted and a nation waits for the outcome, join us to break down the live election results as only Ben Shapiro, Matt Walsh, Michael Knowles, Andrew Klavan, and Jeremy Boren can. With special guests appearing live in studio, Dr. Jordan B. Peterson, Dennis Prager, and Spencer Klayman. Daily Wire, Election Night 2024. Get real-time results and exclusive insights from the most trusted names in media.

This is more than an election. It's history in the making. Join the Daily Wire as each vote is counted, each state called, and each race decided. Daily Wire, election 2024, tomorrow at 6 Eastern, 5 Central. In just over 20 hours, polls will open for Election Day. Because Democrats changed the election rules four years ago, more than half the country has already voted.

That means just under half the country will be voting tomorrow. So one last time, I would like to remind everyone why I voted for Donald Trump. Donald Trump was the best president of my lifetime. He created 7 million new jobs, more than three times what analysts had predicted.

Real wages rose more than they had in 40 years. Unemployment reached the lowest level it had in 50 years. Unemployment for black people, Hispanics, Asians, veterans, the disabled, and Americans without a high school diploma all hit record lows. The median household income reached record highs. Poverty fell to record lows. The bottom 50% of U.S. households enjoyed a 40% increase in net worth. The stock market hit record highs.

Trump's tax relief cut the tax bill of a typical American family of four earning $75,000 per year in half. For every new government regulation instituted under Trump, eight old regulations were cut. For the first time in almost 70 years, America became a net exporter of energy and the top producer of oil and natural gas in the world. On top of that, renewable energy and production and consumption also reached record highs.

Families saw their child tax credit doubled and eligibility for it expanded. Trump improved health care, lowering the cost of drugs for the first time in over half a century, while simultaneously eliminating Obamacare's unconstitutional individual mandate. Despite overwhelming opposition from Democrats, Trump built over 400 miles of the border wall, causing illegal crossings to drop a whopping 87% where the wall had been constructed.

During Trump's term, illegal immigration hit relative historic lows. For the first time in many years, NATO allies began to pay their funding obligations to the tune of $400 billion. He withdrew from disastrous foreign policy agreements such as the Iran nuclear deal. And through deals such as the Abraham Accords, he brought peace to the Middle East. Unlike his predecessors or successor, no new wars started during his administration.

Of the past four presidents, Trump is the only one on whose watch Vladimir Putin did not launch any new invasions. That peace came by way of strength. Trump rebuilt the military to the tune of $2.2 trillion, established a new branch of the military to maintain American dominance in space, and obliterated longstanding enemies such as ISIS. Violent crime dropped consistently throughout his presidency. Taxpayers were no longer forced to fund abortions abroad.

Trump became the first sitting president to attend the March for Life, and Trump-appointed judges delivered the greatest win for the defense of innocent life in American history. By the end of Trump's term, America was safer, richer, and stronger than it was before he took office and than it became after he left. It was great. I'm Michael Knowles. This is The Michael Knowles Show. ♪♪

Welcome back to the show. I know what you're all thinking about.

Peanut the squirrel. And we will get to peanut the squirrel. We will also get to an exclusive interview with President Trump's head of security, a man who knows him as well or better as just about anyone. We'll get to that in one moment. First, though, folks, I got to tell you about Good Ranchers. You got to go to good ranchers dot com and use code nose. Thanksgiving is one of my favorite holidays.

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I am so pleased to be joined by Keith Schiller. Keith Schiller has served his country in a number of capacities in the U.S. Navy, in law enforcement, and then also as the head of President Trump's security for decades at this point. I believe Keith met President Trump a quarter century ago and then served as his head of security going up all the way to the director of Oval Office Operations. So,

Keith, first of all, thank you so much for coming on the show. Thank you, Michael. It's an honor to be on the show. It's actually a pleasure and I appreciate you taking the time to speak with me. Well, the honor and the pleasure is all mine.

Keith, I, like you, I'm a New Yorker. I'm actually from the same area that you're from, the Hudson Valley. And so I think for people who are not from New York, you know, they'd heard of President Trump for many decades. I have been aware of this man literally my entire life. This guy has been a huge fixture for New Yorkers long before I voted for him in 2016.

However, a lot of people know the professional record, you know, the business successes and obviously the political successes. I just went through them in the monologue. Not a lot of people know the man personally. You know him as well or better than just about anyone. And what the media have been saying for a decade now, previously they said that Trump was great and they loved him. But for about a decade now, they've said he's awful and he's a man of terrible character and everyone hates him. And he's a terrible person to be around. You have the personal insight.

Right. Tell us about the man personally. Yeah. You know, Mike, I just I think the media has done a great job at knocking, building him up and knocking him down. The truth is in the employees and the people that he touches on a daily basis that he reaches out. He he has rapport with long term people that been in his employee. That's the first thing.

thing I would like to say is, if he was such a bad person, he couldn't keep people around him. There's people, and I'm sure you've been to places where he's been at, and you've met many people. They love him. He's a guy, a man of the people. He has, he employs people from all races, all creeds, all genders, obviously. And they are people that would go to war for this guy.

I've seen it out on the campaign trip year after year where the people he connects, he knows how to connect with people. We used to get off the plane and ride to the venues. And for miles upon miles, the people would line up along the road with the American flags cheering for him. He knows how to connect with these people. And that's been something that I think most candidates don't have.

He has a place in Scotland, England. I can tell you a brief story that one of his managers who, after about two months, came up to me and said, you know, Keith, we used to be owned by another company.

And I never met the former owners. He said for years, this company owned this establishment. He says, but here we are two months in. I've met Ivanka. I've met Don. I've met Mr. Trump. They know us by name. They ask about our family. He knows how to connect and it's genuine. And that's the way I think why the people that he interacts with on the campaign trail

have that same feeling. Yes, he's a wealthy man, but he's a man of the people. I don't care if it's his elevator operator, a driver, an attorney, all walks of life, firemen, law enforcement, military, which he loves. He's able to make that connection, which I think most candidates are not able to do. And he's done that because he's employed thousands upon thousands of people over the years. And he's been able to

get them behind him, make them feel this connection that is so unique to him. He's a very, very, I don't have to tell you, a very, very unique gentleman, right? There's only one Donald J. Trump.

He's a warrior. He's a fighter. He's a leader. He's a man that creates jobs. And he's just very special. And getting in regards to the family, I have nothing but good things to say about the family. All great children. As you can expect, they're all expected to do well. They're very highly educated. Manners. Look at Baron. Beautiful young man. Ivanka, Don and Eric. Everybody around him.

loves this man, including obviously his family. But he's just able to make that connection with people that most candidates will never be able to do. And I don't know if it's because of his long history of building and making jobs, but he's out there every single day talking to the people, getting to know their families. So it's a special person that can do that. And of course, he's a patriot.

That's the first and foremost. Everything that he does is for this country, for the betterment of this country. And unfortunately, in Washington, D.C., that's not a popular person. Of course. Yeah. So...

Go ahead. I'm sorry. No, no. I think everything you're saying right now is something that Americans have picked up on over the years. And just they've received this barrage from the establishment media that tells them not to believe their lying eyes. When you say Trump is an original, he is. He's a complete American original. I know some people in the political establishment had called for Trump.

Trumpism without Trump. And I thought, are you kidding? What does that even mean? You know, there's no Trumpism without Trump. You know, this guy is a singular individual. And then you talk about that connection with voters. To me, the moment I really saw it on the national stage was that moment he was boarding the helicopter or the airplane and

And the wind blew a Marine's hat down. And he just instinctively reached down, picked it up, put it on the Marine's head, got on the plane. I thought that's not the sort of thing you can calculate. That's got to be just in your character. That has to just be in your behavior for however many decades. On the point about the family, Keith, I'd love to get your insight.

because it seemed to me when the media were saying, this is a man of bad character and, you know, people around him don't like him or whatever. I thought, look, I've met a lot of politicians. Most politicians have terrible family lives and maybe it's just something about the job or it's an occupational hazard or I don't know what, but having spent a little bit of time with president Trump's kids at different times over the years, I've always been impressed with,

By the kids, by how well they have done, how relatively normal they are given their eccentric upbringing, and by how much love and respect they obviously have for their father. I don't know that I've ever seen a comparison among other politicians. So tell me a little bit about that family dynamic.

Well, you know, they obviously they weren't that they learned that hard work ethic very at a very young age. I know Eric Don and Ivanka as soon as they were able to while they were in university and maybe even earlier were out working at some of his properties or they had they always had jobs. They always had to do something to earn their keep. And the father and and their mom instilled the hard work ethic.

So they're not kids that were born and just handed everything. They started at a very early age where they understood the value of a dollar and they understood quality building and construction. They learned all that from their father, especially Ivanka. She's a, she's a,

A great product of a great father and mother, you know, very good person. They're all great kids. I mean, I've interacted with Byron since he was four, three, four years old. I knew Don and Ivanka when they were going to college and being involved with activities. Tiffany, I had a lot of interactions with.

All very, very level-headed, well-rounded children. Extremely respectful. And as you said earlier, they could be kids of a very wealthy parent and be very dismissive of your average voter, an employee. They are exactly the opposite. I'll tell you a very quick story about Ivanka and the type of character that she is. She's a great person.

Many years ago, she flew into New York City, and we had one of my drivers had to go pick her up at the airport. It just so happened it was Super Bowl Sunday. So in the middle of the game, the driver leaves his home, his family, to go pick up Ivanka. That was his job, and he did it gladly. You know, as most employees, they love the family, so they did it gladly. So in the car, Ivanka asked him something.

What's going on? I guess the topic came up that it was Super Bowl and he left in the middle of the game. So because she didn't want him to miss the game and leave his family, she said, well, let's go to your house and we'll go sit with your family and we'll watch the game together. Because she knew if she had to drive her into Manhattan, it would have been another hour, hour and a half. Ivanka was upset.

Kind enough to think of this guy. He left his family. She goes there, sits in this house in Queens. Very large family. They were in awe that she's sitting there watching the game with them.

But that's the type of person that she is. And she's like that because her father's like that, considerate of others. And of course, the driver and his family were so pleased and happy that Ivanka would do something like that. But that's the type of people they are. And they're all like that. And they're not like that by mistake. It's because of the parenting and the people that

Their two parents were. They're very, very strict on the kids, but great people of integrity. You know, this confirms something I've suspected about President Trump and the Trump family, which I really like. And it drives the D.C. establishment crazy because they want President Trump to have a five bullet point manifesto on the back of a napkin and be some political dweeb who has some hyper focused ideology or whatever. And I think I actually don't want that in my politicians.

What I want in my politicians is a good gut, and I want courage, which is the prerequisite for all of the other virtues. I want someone who is going to make the right decision in the moment. And I think time again, you use the example of the Marine with the hat, or obviously you use the example of Butler, Pennsylvania. This is a man who demonstrates courage literally under fire. This is someone that you want to be able to trust personally.

to make those decisions, to make the, even, you know, Ivanka in the car driving on the Super Bowl to just know, hey, you know, a really generous and gracious thing to do would be to go over and take an hour or two out of my day so this guy can be with his family. That's what I want. I want someone who instinctively is doing the right stuff. So before I let you go, I know it's a very busy time, Keith, but before I let you go, what is your sense of

Having been the director of Oval Office Operations, what is the sense right now, maybe at the president or of his family? We are 20 hours out from Election Day beginning. I don't every day. I want to feel I feel good. I guess I have this kind of brimming hope in me, but I just I just don't know. It seems like everything's topsy turvy. What are people thinking?

Well, I can tell you, and I'm sure you've heard this all day long, it's going to come down to Pennsylvania, right? I think Mr. Trump...

Everything, assuming everything is on the level and people get out there and do what they have to do, he's going to win. He's going to win the electoral college. It's in the bag. It's a done deal. But unfortunately, as you know, polls are polls, and there's always some type of leeway there. It looks close, but my gut feeling and the people here, I'm down in Florida, so this is MAGA country down here.

They feel that he's going to win, you know, and that's really the only option for this country is if Donald Trump wins this again. He's a fearless man. He's a great leader. And under pressure, this is the guy that you want there. He's a smart man and most importantly, a patriot. That's the most important. He's going to do the best that he can do for the country.

That's all. This is exactly what I'm thinking. You know, I would take a guy who is instinctively a patriot and who has a demonstrably good gut demonstrated over many decades over any nerd from the Beltway establishment who, I don't know, read five more dusty old books on some wonkish nonsense policy out of a think tank. You know, this guy very clearly, uh,

has America's interests at heart. He could have just retired to one of his many beautiful properties. He didn't. He's put himself literally in the line of fire. And it's how I feel the same as you. I feel hopeful. I think he's going to win. It's difficult because Democrats changed the rules four years ago. But I just think

The story cannot end with this guy losing. This guy has got to win. So if you've not voted, especially if you're in a place like Pennsylvania, get out there and vote right now. Turn off this interview. Pause this interview. Pause this show. You can come back and listen to the show later. But go out there and vote. If you can vote early, set your alarm for tomorrow's 20 hours election day starts. Keith, thank you so much for taking time out of what I'm sure is an extremely busy schedule. And I look forward to seeing you

I hope at some point over the next weeks and months in a celebratory occasion to welcome back the 47th president. You can bank on it, Michael. And it's a pleasure. Thank you, sir, for having me. Thank you very much. All right, everybody, we've got a lot more to get to. We have to get to Peanut the Squirrel and Fred the Raccoon. But folks, first...

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I'm just going to keep teasing Peanut the Squirrel for the entire show because there are a few other things I want to get to first. How is it looking? Very troubling poll came out yesterday or two days ago out of Iowa. It's an outlier poll, but it contradicts the other polls which say that Trump's going to win. This poll says Trump is going to lose Iowa. Lose Iowa? Trump won Iowa twice. How on earth could he lose Iowa? Iowa's solidly red over the last decade. Well, according to the Des Moines Register, the

There was a September Iowa poll that showed Trump with a four-point lead over Kamala. That followed a June Iowa poll, which showed him with an 18-point lead over Joe Biden. This was before the Democrats swapped out their nominee. And now we've got this poll showing Kamala with a solid lead over Trump. How do you get that? Well, the pollster J. Ann Seltzer says, it's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming, but Kamala has clearly leapt into a leading position.

The methodology here was a little bit different. The methodology was taking voters at their word when they said that they were definitely going to vote. So a voter comes out and says, I'm definitely going to vote, and here's my preference. The poll just says that person is going to vote. Often polls will weight different voters by their likelihood historically rather than their

their stated likelihood. Now, on the flip side, that's the bad news is from the Des Moines Register. And it's a reason that Republicans need to get out there and vote, especially Republican men who aren't voting enough. However, then you get a story from the New York Times, which shows that the Republicans are looking good and President Trump is looking good. According to the Times, quote, across these final polls, white Democrats were 16% likelier to respond than white Republicans.

So you're getting a disproportionate response from the Dems, which might skew the polls. That's a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year. It's not much better for our final polls in 2020, even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility, this is the key, that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.

So what is it? What's it going to be? Is Trump going to win everything? He's going to win the blue wall. He's going to recreate President Reagan in 1984, every state but Minnesota. Or is Trump going to do so poorly, Kamala's going to do so well that he's even going to lose Iowa? The short answer is no one knows. And the reason no one knows is not just that polls can't really predict the future because no one can really know the future.

The reason no one knows is because Democrats changed all the rules last time. That's it. So when conservatives such as myself objected to Democrats rigging the 2020 election, what we meant by rigging the election, as we have stated many times, is that they changed all the rules. In some cases, illegally or unconstitutionally, as in the case of widespread mail-ins in Pennsylvania in 2020. But they changed the rules, even in some cases legally, to give advantages to Democrats.

Now, look, that's the game, I guess. If we want to change the rules back, then we've got to win elections and we've got to change those rules back. So that's the game. You've got to play within the rules of the game. Otherwise, you're out of the game. Sure, I get all of that. But without whining or lamenting how the rules were changed, it's just to point out that past cannot really be precedent here because we don't know. The rules are all different than they were in the

2016, 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, going back decades at this point. So we just don't really know. Will widespread mail-ins, will greater ease of ballot harvesting mean that lower information, lower likelihood voters who usually sit things out are going to have their votes submitted for them or perhaps by them? Is it going to mean that college students are going to vote at far higher rates, college students much more likely to vote for Democrats because they're young and ignorant?

We just don't know. We just don't know. So you come into the homestretch here. You've got polls conflicting as much as they possibly could. And then on top of all of that, Democrats in the New York state government murdered a squirrel. They killed Peanut the squirrel.

And also Fred the Raccoon. Fred the Raccoon has not gotten as much play as Peanut the Squirrel. New York State law enforcement went into a guy's house. A guy had been making a bunch of TikToks. His name is Mark Longo. Over the years, he's had this pet squirrel. He rescued a little squirrel who was going to die in the wild, I guess, and took him home and made a lot of TikToks about him and his raccoon, Fred. And then the government came in, bust down his doors.

take his animals. Then I guess the squirrel bit one of the capturers and then they killed the squirrel. Here is Mr. Longo describing the harrowing scene. We just learned that they have euthanized peanut and the raccoon as well. And the raccoon as well. Um,

I am so sorry. This must be really difficult for you. It not only tears my family apart, but Peanut was the cornerstone of our nonprofit animal rescue. And 10 to 12 DEC officers raided my house as if I was a drug dealer. I was sat outside my house for five hours. I had to get a police escort to my bathroom.

I wasn't even allowed to feed my rescue horses breakfast or lunch. I was sitting, sat there like a criminal after they interrogated my wife to check out her immigration status, then proceeded to ask me if I had cameras in my house, then proceeded to go through every cabinet nook and cranny of my house for a squirrel and a raccoon. They got a search warrant. They got a search warrant.

Four departments and a judge signed off on a search warrant for a squirrel and a raccoon. And then they took them and killed them. Why did they go through all that to get a search warrant for an animal that had been with you very safely? The animal had been with him safely for something like seven years. The man is distressed at his squirrel being taken from him. Now,

It's not about the squirrel, okay? I know this might not be totally popular among the people who have a real soft spot for animals like squirrels. My great-grandfather in New York, he was an immigrant from Italy. He used to shoot rabbits and squirrels in his yard and cook them. So it's not really about the squirrel, I don't think. It's about the resources, right?

New York has all sorts of problems right now. Crime rampant in New York City. You've got...

open border, our southern border, is leading to a huge influx of unfettered, fighting-age men from foreign countries who have no right to be here, who are now filling up the Roosevelt Hotel in Midtown East in New York, just loitering about and smoking pot. I was just there a week or so ago. I was walking from Grand Central to the Carnegie Club Cigar Lounge, and it's just like a wave of

drugs as you walk by the Roosevelt for these poor beleaguered dreamers. I digress. New York is not enforcing its laws, doesn't have the resources to protect people on the street from violent criminals, but they've got, they're going to pull out Delta Force to go in there and take some guy's pet squirrel and his pet raccoon and then kill the squirrel. And they said they had to kill the squirrel to see if the squirrel had rabies. The guy had the squirrel for seven years. If the squirrel had rabies, we would know about it by now, right? Wouldn't the guy be dead?

There are laws against keeping certain animals. He says he was trying to get the license for the squirrel. I don't know. It took him a long time. I guess seven years to get the license for the squirrel. And I think it's fine to have laws against keeping certain animals. But it's just about priorities here, folks. The Democrats, there's a great meme going around. It's a Democrat stepping upstairs. He goes, arresting illegals. No, he's going to skip that one. Arresting rapists. He's going to skip that one. Arresting murderers. He's going to skip that one. Leg goes straight to killing a squirrel. That's what they're doing. I know people care a lot about Peanut. He's made a lot of waves.

I would point out, again, this is, I'm not saying that the coincidence is causality here. However, remember Cecil the Lion? Cecil the Lion got shot, cold blood. Harambe, of course you remember Harambe. And now Peanut the Squirrel. I can't help but notice all three were killed under Democrat administrations. Is that a coincidence? Yes, it is. But anyway, remember that at the ballot box. Remember that. Remember Peanut and Fred and Cecil and of course Harambe.

What about the polls outside of Iowa, outside of the national polls? Trump is looking good right now. Okay. He was, at least he was looking good three or four days ago. I don't know some last minute skewing, but even New Hampshire right now is looking pretty good.

New Hampshire Journal and Precones Analytica poll conducted October 24th to the 26th finds Trump leading Harris 50.2% to 49.8%. So it's very close there. But even in New Hampshire, it would be shocking if Trump won New Hampshire. Republicans haven't won New Hampshire since Bush 2000. Trump is looking good there. There's a Monmouth poll out in Pennsylvania. Trump is just barely ahead in Pennsylvania.

Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but if you take Trump 2016 out of it, Trump 2024 would be the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since Bush 88. Not George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, the first go-around, 1988. So Pennsylvania really, really matters.

Kamala has told voters, especially Catholics, one in four voters in Pennsylvania is a Catholic. She told Catholics she doesn't care about them. She's going to persecute them. Said if you believe in Jesus, you shouldn't be at her rally. You're at the wrong rally. Go to the Trump rally down the street.

Trump looking good, though it's tight in Pennsylvania. And then Nevada. Nevada also, you'd expect Nevada to go Democrat. Right now, Trump is leading Nevada in the early vote. These numbers are a little outdated now, whereas of last Tuesday, the GOP has an unprecedented lead of 42,796 votes in early voting. Republicans haven't won Nevada at the presidential level since Bush 04, okay? Okay.

Now, we don't know. The thing about the early vote here is we don't know who they voted for. We just know that

307,000 Republicans have voted and 264,000 Democrats have voted. Now, we don't know. There are going to be Democrats for Trump and there are going to be Republicans for Kamala, I guess, like Dick Cheney or Liz Cheney. However, if there is a discrepancy between party ID and who you vote for in this race, I think it's got to favor Trump, doesn't it? I think there are going to be way more Democrats for Trump than there are Republicans for Kamala.

I think there are going to be a lot more Democrats following Bobby Kennedy and Elon Musk and Tulsi Gabbard. And there are going to be a lot of people in that disaffected middle who think the left has gone way, way too far and that Kamala is obviously unqualified to be president. There could be a lot of those voting for Trump who missed the good old days before the 22% inflation or 30% inflation in some places that we've had over the Biden-Harris administration. So those numbers out of Nevada make me feel really, really good. You know what else makes me feel good?

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My favorite comment yesterday is from Crayola Coffee Bean, who says, my boyfriend and I vote the same, but if we didn't, we wouldn't hide it. We'd discuss it. Yeah, you got Kamala, you got the Democrats, you got Julia Roberts specifically telling women, hey, go into the voting booth and negate your husband's vote. Your husband's a Republican. And that whole ad, it was so awful. Your husband's a big, fat, dumb, stupid Republican. Well, deceive him. Lie to him implicitly and go in there and vote for Democrats. Cancel out his vote, that big dummy.

No, that's not good. If you view your role in politics as primarily a way to undermine your husband, you have bigger problems than the next tax bill. No doubt about that. A lot of people are praying in the lead up to the election, praying and fasting, which is a good idea. Prayer and fasting, always a good idea in your regular spiritual life and especially in times of crisis.

And just around that time, President Trump posts this to social media, to Twitter as well as to Truth Social. Happy All Saints Day. You know, All Saints Day is the day after Halloween. That's what Halloween comes from, All Hallows Eve, the night before All Saints Day. It's this beautiful picture with our Lord on the cross and all the saints around him and the cloud of witnesses. And beneath our Lord is

Our Lady of Guadalupe, which is an image of Mary, Mother of God, that appeared some 500 years ago in Mexico and converted millions and millions of people. And it's a miraculous image from a tilma that's still preserved in Mexico. It would appear miraculously preserved because this should have degraded

centuries ago, and also anarchists tried to blow it up with a bomb. And while pews got blown away, the image was preserved and there was a crucifix actually bent around protecting the image. So President Trump posting this, wishing everyone a blessed and happy All Saints Day. This is the second time that President Trump has posted an image specifically of Our Lady of Guadalupe, this Marian apparition to the Americas. And there are going to be a lot of people who view this cynically.

who say, oh, President Trump, he's just pandering to get the votes of Christians, maybe Hispanics, Hispanic Catholics, or I don't know. Posting

specifically Catholic images, is not necessarily the way that you're going to pander for votes in America. America has been largely a Protestant country for a long time. Even many Hispanics who have come to America are not Catholic. They're Protestant, sometimes Pentecostal. So I don't know if it's that. President Trump has a lot of Catholic influences around him. And also, one thing you've got to remember, President Trump, by all accounts, should be dead right now.

An assassin trained his gun squarely on Trump's head, and only because a nanosecond before the bullet would have hit his head, he turned his head to look at an immigration chart. Did the bullet whiz by most of his head? It did clip his ear. This man almost died, and he's said repeatedly in interviews since then. That experience has got him thinking about God a lot more. It's made him a lot more religious.

So I think, I'm not saying I would doubt the sincerity before, but it's now. I think that even for the most cynical observer of President Trump, you've got to look at it and say, yeah. Yeah, no wonder the guy who was shot in the ear and then nearly had his head blown off a second time, no wonder he's thinking about final things. He's thinking about providence and he's thinking about God. And that is ultimately what's going to happen here. We're not going to save ourselves in these elections. It's God's grace that does all the good things.

Now, you can cooperate with God's grace or you can reject God's grace. And I hope you will cooperate with God's grace tomorrow. We have this opportunity. President Trump's life was spared back over the summer twice. So you have this opportunity to elect this guy who really did help make our country a lot better. So you can cooperate with that grace or you can reject that grace. But it is ultimately going to be God. And so prayer and fasting, I think, very good idea. Some people disagree with that, like Bill Gates. Bill Gates is calling for a new religion.

The potential positive path is so good that it will force us to rethink how should we use our time? You know, you can almost call it a new religion or a new philosophy of, okay, how do we stay connected with each other, not addicted to these things that will make video games look like nothing in terms of the attractiveness of spending time on them. So it's fascinating that we will...

the issues of disease and enough food, of climate, if things go well, those will largely become solved problems. Okay, a new religion is what Bill Gates is calling for. Not beating the charges that this man wants to make himself a master of the universe, that this man and his pals in the liberal establishment want to make themselves into gods. Just a point, though, for Bill Gates, who has not thought very deeply about religion, it would seem.

New religion means no religion. New religion means no religion. New religion, calling for a new religion means you think there's no real religion. There's only control. It means you view religion as a means of control or a means of social conditioning, and so you want to perfect the religion and tweak it a little bit. You want to make your own religion, which means that you're going to make yourself God.

Religion, though, most basically is a habit of virtue that inclines the will to give to God what he deserves. That's what it is. That's why there aren't really multiple religions. There's only religion. And people are getting closer or further away from religion, from properly giving to God what he deserves. That's what that is. But to say we're going to make a new religion is to say we're going to have no religion. You're not going to worship God. There's nothing permanently true. You're going to do what I say.

We're going to control you. This is what the liberals want. We're going to control you. We're going to rewrite the moral order. We're going to say that killing babies is not only—

not a bad thing, but it's a positively good thing. We're going to say that you don't really have rights. You don't really have property. We're going to take your pet squirrel and we're not going to enforce any other laws that we are going to make ourselves into gods. And not like the true god who is synonymous with logic and reason, but gods who are totally unbound by logic and reason, who are pure will, purely transcendent. Those are scary gods indeed. Now,

It's a total joke what Bill Gates is talking about here. Speaking of jokes, Saturday Night Live has just aired its annual funny sketch. This is a sketch about the liberals' insistence all the way through till tomorrow that in this election, democracy is on the ballot. And it's through the SNL sketch game show. Guess that name.

This is the most important election in American history. Democracy is on the line. Great. Our next question is for $300,000. And here to ask it is the man himself.

I was Hillary Clinton's vice presidential running mate. At the time, you said it was the most important election in American history, and that democracy was on the line. It's been less than eight years. What's my name? Hi, it is an honor. You voted for me to be one heartbeat away from the Oval Office in an election more recent than the release of Zootopia. What's my name?

It's not it's not my fault if he was a more memorable guy like Tim Walz. This is very much a guy like Tim Walz. Let's see them side by side. And they look they look and they are just basically indiscernible. What does that mean?

That SNL is airing a sketch mocking the liberal insistence, the core of the Kamala 2024 campaign and the core of the Biden 2024 campaign before that. They're mocking the key message of that campaign just days before the election. What does that mean? Does it mean that the fever has broken?

Does it mean that even SNL, even the NBC liberal flagship comedy show is recognizing this ain't selling with voters? Voters don't really believe democracy is on the line. In fact, it's absurd. It's absurd because you have now had a year of Democrats trying to kick Trump off the ballot.

in the name of democracy. You've had a year of Democrats trying to imprison their chief political rival in the name of democracy. You've had a year of Democrats justifying the assassination that did in fact come to pass in an attempt of President Trump, of their chief rival. By any even remotely reasonable measurement, Democrats pose the threat to democracy. And on top of all that, the Democrats don't even believe what they're saying anymore.

Most of them don't even remember that guy who Hillary ran with in 2016. Absolutely right. So, you know, there have been a lot of hoaxes in the 2024 race, really over the past now almost 10 years since President Trump came down that golden escalator.

We will get to the Democrats' last hoax. I say the last, maybe they'll fit five more in, but they only have one day left. So the last Trump hoax that they are launching before the election day actually comes to pass is

And because we're getting so close to the big moment, I'm very pleased that we are going to keep this show on YouTube, at least until Ben's show now, because The Daily Wire is going to bring you election coverage wall to wall until we figure out who our next candidate is.

president is. So do not go anywhere. Pennsylvania's future hangs in the balance. And here's a fact that might surprise you. Pennsylvania has nearly 2 million conservatives who don't vote. That's almost one out of every five people you know. But there is something you can do about it. Take 10 to 15 minutes and make a real difference in Pennsylvania's future.

How, you might ask? By identifying friends, family, coworkers, and fellow church members who aren't planning on exercising their right to vote. Many people are shocked to discover non-voters among their own family members or in their church communities. These are voices that could be heard, but aren't.

The best part is the effort costs nothing but a few minutes of your time. And those few minutes could help shape the future of the state and our country. It's a simple process. Visit 10xvotes.com and use their easy tools to find non-voting conservatives in your circle. That's 10xvotes.com. Don't wait. Go to 10xvotes.com, get your 10, and help us win. Remember, it costs nothing, takes just a few minutes, and you can play a crucial role in Pennsylvania's future. Head over to 10xvotes.com today.

So pleased that I've got a pollster who can actually tell us something about what is going on right now. You got a lot of conflicting reports. That is Brent Buchanan, all coming up on the Michael Knowles Show.

Before I get to Brent, before I get to the story, I do want to get to my iPad. If you are a Klem du Lachem Daily Wire Plus member, then you can write in directly here. If you're just on YouTube, I'm sorry. If you're just a no knock on the hoi polloi, but we need you to join Daily Wire Plus. Who do we have here?

Victoria Lady Esquire, Michael volunteered to do all of this coverage so he did not have to help at home with a newborn. It is true. The Daily Wire paternity leave policy is about 45 minutes, I would say. You are allowed to be at the hospital, but then you do have to get back very, very quickly.

Who do we have here? I'm convinced that most libs don't even know where Kamala stands on most issues. Ohio Dutchman. I'm convinced Kamala doesn't know where Kamala stands on most issues. Tomorrow they need grilled cheese and cookies on backstage, says Zachary H9477. That sounds kind of nice. Is he going to tell us his name? Shema Israel. It's a funny sketch, actually. You should watch the whole sketch.

Honey Badger's dad, what do you guys think the impact of Charlie Kirk will be on college voters? Well, Charlie is running a lot of the get out the vote operation. And so, well, I guess we'll get the final score tomorrow, but it seems like he's done a really great job. EJ Colonel Mill, I kind of want the vote to be 269, 269, just to see what happens. You know, that would be interesting.

I'd prefer a landslide for Trump, but it would be interesting if it came out even. Intergalactic Dork. Hi, Michael. I'm finally catching the live stream today. I'm glad to be here. I'm glad that you are here. Thank you for being here. Must be why we have commercials this summer, 74. That is why you have live commercials today is because we are going live all the time.

Let's see. iPad baby says patrigue89. Creamy people, Victorian lady. We've got, I've got so much cleaning to do today, says Shady Jim, putting DW on the TV once the kids are at school. My day is planned. So true. SBG Buffalo Blood and Empire has an average lifespan of 250 years. America's 248 years. My theory is that Kamala wins. We have a new civil war. That is disturbing. I hope that's not the case. But speaking of wars, Liz Cheney.

is helping Democrats launch one last hoax before the election. Liz Cheney responding to an apparent threat against her by Donald Trump. Here's what she says.

This is how dictators destroy free nations. They threaten those who speak against them with death. We cannot entrust our country and our freedom to a petty, vindictive, cruel, unstable man who wants to be a tyrant. Women will not be silenced. Vote Kamala. Okay. Wow, man, that's really hardcore. That's intense. What is Liz Cheney responding to?

She's a radical war hawk. Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, okay? Let's see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face. You know, they're all war hawks when they're sitting in Washington in a nice building saying, oh, gee, well, let's send 10,000 troops right into the mouth of the enemy.

But she's a stupid person. And I used to have meetings with a lot of people. And she always wanted to go to war with people. Did that sound like a threat to you? Liz Cheney is saying that Trump is threatening her. Trump says, Liz Cheney always wants to go to war. Okay, let's go see her in the war. Let's go see her staring down the enemy with all the gun barrels. Let's see if she's so gung-ho to go to war, if it's actually her skin in the game, if it's actually her life on the line.

She always wanted to go to war with people when I was in meetings with her. That's what Trump said. She says this is a threat. The irony is that this is the opposite of a threat because Trump is advocating the opposite policy of that which would imperil Liz Cheney's life. Trump is saying Liz Cheney wants to go to war. Well, what if we sent her to war? Then she would actually be at risk of death. But I don't want to send people to war.

which means I don't want to send Liz Cheney to war or anyone else to war, which means I don't want to imperil Liz Cheney's life. It's exactly the opposite of a threat. But of course, this is what the libs do. They just invert things. They don't only pervert things, they do that too, but they invert things. But this is really desperate stuff. I don't think anyone is really convinced by this.

After, I mean, goodness gracious, we don't have enough time even in this extra block to recount all the hoaxes. The very fine people hoax or the Russia hoax or then the Ukraine hoax or then the this hoax or the that hoax, the dossier, all the rest of it. Now we've got Trump wants to kill Liz Cheney. I don't think so. I don't think that one's going to persuade. And frankly, if it did persuade any voters, it would probably persuade them to vote for Trump. But he didn't say that, okay? He said exactly the opposite.

So Kamala Harris is gaining support of the Cheneys, but she is losing support that is probably more critical to her defeating President Trump, and that is the support of black men. This is being reflected in polls.

You know, Kamala seems to be consistently underperforming with black men compared to Biden in 2020. I was just coincidentally, I was just speaking to a black politically engaged friend of mine. And he said, I said, yeah, it looks like it looks like Kamala's support is suppressed at maybe 12 to 15 percent among black men over what she might have expected from Biden 2020. He said, ah, that's not even close.

He said, I think that's actually undercounting how underperforming she will be among black men. But Kamala insists the opposite. Kamala goes on The Breakfast Club, which is a show aimed primarily at a black audience, and insists that the brothers are still voting for Kamala.

Now, we VP Harris, this is Lauren. Nice to meet you. We we talk a lot up here about the black men conversation, the fact that people, you know, they keep trying to push this whole black men are not supporting Kamala Harris. That's a lie. And my question to you is, is, you know, the fact that, you know, even if it's a lie, people are still saying it. What is your strong push to any black man right now? And that feels like you're not speaking directly to them and about the things that they should care about for their families and for themselves.

Well, Lauren, I have to tell you back to what Charlamagne is shouting in the background. The brothers aren't saying that. I mean, I was just at the barbershop in Philly talking with very incredible and distinguished men who are leaders in their community. The brothers are not saying that, man. I was just at the barbershop. I would like to have a real-time fact check. Kamala Harris has never...

just been at the barbershop. That has never happened ever. I don't, I'm not going to present any evidence for that. I don't even care if she physically was near. She has never been at the barbershop ever. Not once.

I like her accent. She's rolling out her best impression of a, you know, man, kind of accent. But this is better than her Latina accent, which she unveiled just a few weeks ago. And she said, oh, I love you too, mommy. I love you so much. But this one was a little bit more persuasive than that. This is also better than her preacher accent. Hallelujah, the jock.

I cometh in the morning. This one is a little better, but it's still unpersuasive. The woman's never been at a barbershop and she would appear, according to the polls, to be underperforming with black men. But don't take my word for it. We have an actual pollster on the show. That would be Brent Buchanan, an international pollster par excellence. Brent, thank you so much for coming on the show.

Hey, good to be with you. So, I've read a lot of commentary on the polls. I've looked at polls. I've done my own analysis of the polls. But I'm not a pollster. I don't actually conduct polls. I don't really know the nitty-gritty of them. Even working on campaigns, the pollsters are a totally separate class. So...

I don't know. I'm getting all these conflicting reports. You got this poll out of Iowa that says that Kamala is going to run away with a state that Trump won twice. And then you're getting the New York Times coming out and saying actually the polls are underestimating President Trump's support yet again as they did in 2016. So what do I know? I don't know what to believe. What should I believe?

I think, first off, pollsters are terrified of being wrong again this election. And I would like to, as a private pollster, divide public and private polling, because there's many of us who are hired to help guide strategy, like you're talking about, and to explain this is what's going on and why. And if you want to change it, here's what you need to do for messaging or targeting. Public polls just put stuff out, I guess, to get a press release out there for the most part. But I would say that

There's been a lot of hurting, which means that these pollsters are trying to make their numbers look like somebody else's numbers. And there's a whole lot you can do on the back end of a poll to make it appear like you want it to appear, either because you want it to look like the other polls that have come out or you just don't believe the results since you're going to tweak something on the back end. And I love a good outlier. You know, there were a friend of mine in Echelon Insights put out a I want to say was like Michigan at Trump plus five poll.

That was a significant outlier. This Iowa at Harris plus three is a significant outlier, but

One of the things that we have to do, especially as we're going into the final 24 hours of the campaign here, is realize that there is something to be learned from every poll that comes out. We don't just want to say that's complete bunk. I mean, thinking about if you're getting feedback from somebody at work and they come to you and they tell you something and you don't really agree with the premise, they don't give you all the facts that you're going to agree with. But there's about 10% in there that they're actually correct on in giving you feedback. It's just the other 90% is kind of crap.

And I think that's really what the Iowa poll is, is that most of it he's going to win. He's going to win by probably five or more. I wouldn't be surprised if it's more like seven in Iowa. But we have to look at why did that poll come out that way? And it's because Donald Trump is significantly underperforming with seniors in that poll. And he's really underperforming with female voters in that poll. And when you look at the fact that elections are about persuasion to turn out, not persuasion anymore.

and you look at the campaigns and where they're spending their time and what they're saying in their final closing remarks, you realize that Harris is talking to seniors and women

And Donald Trump is talking to men and voters of color. And they're both making their closing arguments in that they've got to get those people out. And I really I can't think of an election that was so incumbent on both sides actually having to really perform strong on Election Day. Usually it's more incumbent on Republicans to perform early on Election Day, but they banked a lot of early votes.

that they haven't in the past. But that means that there's still tons of people left to turn out in this final 24 hours. Of course. I read that a little over half of Americans have voted early, which is a shocking number, especially because Republicans are generally not inclined to vote early. But then I thought, okay, well, that means by my calculations, little under half the country still is going to vote on election day. So that's a ton of people. And it's all pretty dynamic.

That's a really good point on the Iowa poll, because outliers are kind of fun, but you can glean a little bit of information here. So, all right, Trump has a woman problem, at least in Iowa. He's got a senior problem, at least in Iowa. How widespread is that problem? You know, how likely is it to deny him a second shot at the White House?

Well, the reason that people in the past, at least, have put a lot of credence into this Seltzer poll coming out of Iowa right before the election is because that state looks a lot like the key demographics that matter in places like Michigan and Wisconsin and to an extent, Pennsylvania. And so it's almost a bellwether historically for what is going to happen in the rest of those states. And so

We actually just also finished our own polls in those three states, and it's incredibly tight. And this whole election season has all been about Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. And I think what's going to be fascinating is actually going to be Michigan and Wisconsin that are more likely to be the important states for the two campaigns as opposed to Pennsylvania. So, okay, take me through this because I agree. I think there's been an overemphasis on Pennsylvania here and Pennsylvania.

things have happened in Arizona and Nevada that are really interesting. Arizona looks like it's pretty strong for Trump. And even Nevada seems to be following that, looks pretty strong for Trump. Michigan, as you point out, looks like the Senate candidate there is looking pretty good. I mean, I don't know, better than maybe I would have expected. And Trump seems to be doing pretty well. And even in Wisconsin, Trump kind of made a closing salvo in Wisconsin over the past few days. So, so,

Putting Pennsylvania aside for a second, we're sitting all around tomorrow. We're all terrified. We're white knuckling our chairs. What is the likelihood for Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina? I don't know. And finally, Pennsylvania and Georgia and Georgia, of course. What's really interesting is when you look at Nevada and you look at both candidates paths to 270 on the Electoral College list,

Nevada almost doesn't matter. And it's only in about 5% of scenarios where whoever wins Nevada actually makes a difference in somebody's path to 270. That's because it only has six electoral college votes, two U.S. senators and four congressmen and women. And even though Trump has done better there, I don't think it's a good thing.

I just have PTSD about the culinary union and their ability to turn people out on election day. I've seen it over and over again in that state, the read machine that, you know, the Harry Reid machine that people talk about. And so maybe it's just the PTSD that I'm kind of canceling out some of what I'm seeing on the positive side for Republicans on early vote. But yeah, Arizona is definitely coming back around. That should be a Trump victory.

Georgia has been much stronger this time for Trump. And these are usually referred to as the Sunbelt states, I guess, because they're a little bit less depressing in the winter than the Rust Belt states. And North Carolina has been, you know, Trump had been performing incredibly well there. And it's actually tightened up according to a number of polls in the last few days. And so, you know,

We may be sitting here tomorrow night having conversations about the election and watching North Carolina come in and again, go back to Wisconsin and Michigan and how important those two states might be and that it could be a unique path to 270 for Donald Trump.

that nobody's really been talking about. But I would say he has more paths to 270 than she does. And one thing about Wisconsin that's really important to keep in mind is that out of all the states historically, whether you look at midterms or

general presidential elections, it has the highest polling error of any state in the country, sometimes underestimating Republican votes by 6%. I don't think it's going to be that high this time. But if we are talking about states that are nearly tied, you know, within 1%, 2%,

A polling error in Wisconsin is more likely to happen than a large polling error in Pennsylvania or Michigan. And so I think you're going to see Donald Trump win Wisconsin. And what's really interesting is Eric Covdey, the Republican Senate candidate there. I wouldn't be shocked if he actually outperformed Donald Trump on final margin. Wow. Well, OK, bringing us to the Senate, then it's obviously not just the presidential is up. What is going to happen? It seems like.

almost impossible for the Republicans to screw up taking back the Senate. It seems like we're going to get the Senate. Question is, how many seats are we going to get in the Senate? Are we going to lose the House? And what are the seats going to be that cost us the House?

If you look at the Senate map, this is one of the best Republican Senate maps that we've had in a couple elections. It is much better than 26 and 28. And so it's the cycle that Republicans really need to overperform in the Senate, because especially if Donald Trump is in the White House in 2026, that's going to be a tough election year for Republicans in a map that is not nearly as favorable on the Senate side.

So you automatically get to 50 with Joe Manchin's retirement because that state, he was the only person who could have held it. I think he would have lost this year if he ran, which is why he didn't run again. So that gets you to 50. Tim Sheehy, that's the second most Republican state in the nation for Donald Trump that has a Democrat senator sitting in it. So testers likely to fall, Tim Sheehy likely to win there. That takes you to 51.

uh come over to ohio uh we need a really strong donald trump performance in ohio he doesn't really need the state because he's going to win it regardless we just need a really strong trump margin there for bernie moreno to come across the finish line with him because sherrod brown the democrat senator there for past couple terms is is a bit of an anomaly a populist in and of his own right and so that that gets you to 52 and now you're flirting with 53 and um

If you look at Wisconsin, I think that's the first best shot of the next three seats for Republicans, then likely Michigan and then likely Pennsylvania, but they're also close. It's really what we've been tracking is how far has the Republican been in those seats from Trump's margin. In Ohio and Montana, you benefit from the fact that Trump could win definitely by double digits in Montana and potentially by double digits in Ohio. And then on the House side,

This is going to be a game of both sides losing seats because the current Republican majority runs through California and New York, which is absolutely fascinating. If you'd have told me that Brent 10 years ago, that that is how you build the next Republican majority, I would have laughed at you. But we're here. And I read an article this morning that Katie Porter, who ran for U.S. Senate in California and lost her.

That primary her seat down in Orange County area, San Diego area. She's actually worried about it. And so you see opportunities to actually maybe pick up a seat in a California in a place like that. The New York Republican congressmen have been doing a phenomenal job. I think the Mark Mark Melanaro seat in New York 19 is going to end up being one of the most expensive in the nation.

Then you have places like Michigan seven, which is Alyssa Slotkin, who's running for the U.S. Senate. She's a Democrat congressman currently that seats likely to flip to Republican hands. But then you also have some Republican seats that were in tough territory with. And so I think it's hard to say the Republicans will definitely have the majority. The Democrats will definitely have the majority. I think the the safest bet in the House is to say that somebody is going to have a really slim majority, potentially even slimmer than the current majority. Wow.

You know, you mentioned New York 19. That was the first race I ever worked on. Actually, it was the first campaign I ever worked. And back then, this would have been 2010. Back then, I think it was the most expensive house race in the country. Not much has changed. You get some real swing districts here in the Hudson Valley or...

Or, you know, I was just talking to Keith Schiller, who's Trump's top security guy. He's also from the Hudson Valley. There's a lot of Republicans in those parts of California and New York. They could be really, really consequential. Brent, got to leave it there. Brent of Signal, Brent Buchanan, thank you so much for coming on, sharing some insight. And I hope that you're the rosiest of your predictions do turn out to be right. Otherwise, I guess we can have this interview from the gulag, perhaps, if things don't go our way.

All right. Thank you, Michael. Thank you, Brent. Okay. Much more to get to. So I really like talking on the poll side of things because...

The data are sometimes wrong, but they don't lie, you know, and they actually do kind of guide you a little bit to the point that Brent was making earlier. You know, you can always learn something from a poll, even if the poll is totally bonkers in its premises or the way it's weighted afterward. But then, you know, there's another side of things, which is the consultant side. So we've got a great Republican consultant coming on momentarily. There's Ryan Gerduski. First, though.

I want to get to at least a few questions here in the chat. All right, who do we have?

This is only subscribers, folks. This is not, if you're out there in YouTube land, I appreciate you being here. It's good to subscribe to the Michael Knowles YouTube channel. But if you want to get your questions answered, you want me to send to you my mellifluous tones in response, you've got to be a Daily Wire Plus member. And then you can use code Knowles, and then I can beat out Shapiro on who's signing up the most people. Okay. No matter what, God is in control.

Says, That's great. Question is,

Who were those other people waiting for? You know, an hour and a half. That's amazing. I mean, a lot of people came out to vote early. I went to vote here in Nashville and I went to one polling location. The line was so long. I had to do an interview, I think, half an hour later. You know, this is Tennessee. This shouldn't take too long. And the line was so, so long. I had to go to a different polling location. So you're hoping those are all Trump people. Those are all Republicans. I don't vote early, says AZ Cagnaslar. Well, just make sure you vote.

Just may, I understand some people don't want to vote early. I think it's good to vote early now that the rules have changed, but just make sure you don't forget or you don't get, you know, you don't get a flat tire on your way to the polling place.

Shizu at Monk 33, I've been circulating Michael's 10-minute wrap-up on Biden-Harris. Thank you. I put that out there just for the people who have missed early voting. It's about half the country and last little salvo right before the election. Here is a 10-minute reminder of how disastrous the Biden-Harris administration has been. That's on my YouTube channel right now.

So I would say send that around a little bit, not just so that people can see my swarthy features, but just to remind people this administration has been so disastrous. Most people forget. There's just been so many terrible things that have happened. Most people actually forget them. Michael, when is the Chet Arthur biography coming out? This is Roger the Shrubber. Well, that can be my project from the Gulag if Kamala wins.

Michael, what's the breakfast for election day, says Jack Doe. Well, the breakfast today was a nice little egg in a hole. A hole in one from sweet little Elisa. Two eggs, and then you use the second egg, you put it on the little hole that was cut out of the bread. It was really nice with two shots of espresso. Can't beat that. Real question, who was Hillary's running mate? I don't even remember Carrie's running mate. Carrie's running mate was John Edwards, and Hillary's was Tim Kaine, the man who could have been the second woman president. I am joined now by Ryan...

a Republican strategist and one of my favorite cable news guests of the past couple of weeks at least. Ryan, thank you so much for coming on the show. Thank you for having me. Ryan, I said this at the time when you got booted from CNN for being too witty.

I said, I am skeptical of any conservative commentator who is not banned, at least temporarily, from a major cable news outlet. Okay, to me, that is the floor on who I trust on cable news. It was a very, very funny bit. If you haven't seen it, I covered it on my show a week or so ago. If you haven't seen it, go look it up. It was absolutely fabulous. Ryan, you're now focused. Obviously, Election Day is tomorrow.

you have actually participated in politics, unlike so many talking heads who have never worked in election in their lives. Uh, so what are you thinking? What are you seeing on the ground now? Are you feeling good? You feeling bad? Are we going to be doing this interview from the Gulag in three weeks? What's the story? Uh,

You know, it's very nerve wracking, obviously, going to Election Day. There are some like polls are good. But when every poll says it's a tie, it's really I mean, they're kind of worthless. So you have to sit there and look deeper in. So I look at like the New York Times Santa poll yesterday that came out the last Santa poll that came out yesterday.

I noticed something a really big important misnomer on their part that I think is very important their sample sizes for black voters are way higher than

turnout so far. So in the state of Georgia, which is one of the highest black voter states with black population in the entire country, they have estimated 29% of the electorate will be black voters. That is the electorate that came out for Obama. Right now it's about 26.5. It might settle down to 26. Typically day of voters are whiter and more Republican. I have a hard time believing that these people are coming out when they usually vote early and they didn't vote early in the polls. The polls

failed miserably the three weekends in a row that they try to do souls to the polls. So that's my little hunch. The black vote is going to be very instrumental because it's down basically everywhere. And it's, I mean, it's universal across the country. In Ohio, for example, the three...

the counties that have the blackest population, also the three most Democratic counties, they have 28.5% of all early votes in the state back in 2020. They're down to 24%, 24.75%. In Pennsylvania, Philadelphia is at 43%. Philadelphia County, not just the city, but the county, is at 43% of where it was in 2020. These are very difficult numbers to get up

to retrieve on Election Day if the population doesn't seem excited. North Carolina is also down substantially with their black votes. So that's an important thing I will be looking for in Election Day is, does the black vote come out? Because nine in 10 black voters do vote Democrat. Maybe it'll be 8.5 this time, but it's going to be very, very, very high. For every one black voter that doesn't come out, Democrats will need to find a

because the propensity of Democrat to Republican is different. They will need, or every 10 black voters, they will need about

or I'm sorry, 30 college educated whites to match the 10 black voters who are not coming out. That is how important it is to their coalition to sit there and have these voters come out. So if they don't, I don't know if there's enough college educated white suburbanites to make up for the loss of these voters. That's the first thing. The second thing is the rules have been blown

blowing up in the election day early votes in massive numbers. In Western Pennsylvania, Republicans are over 100% of where they were in 2020 in basically every county outside the cities of Erie and Pittsburgh and where College Station is over in the central Pennsylvania.

But almost all Western, almost all Northern Pennsylvania, they're meeting their numbers and exceeding them. Same thing's true in lots of parts of Michigan, in most of Georgia. That doesn't mean that there is not more room to grow. I'm going to be looking at Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional district. It has one of the worst voting participations in all of Georgia, and it is the whitest and most Republican district.

to see if they show up. We'll be looking at Western North Carolina. Did the hurricane stop them from showing up? And then I'll be looking at to see if more Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania will have mostly election day voters just because they don't have typical early day votes. And then, and then the last thing I think that is worth sitting there and noticing to sit there and see is how are seniors voting? I have talked about this for six to seven months.

Senior voting has been in polls in 2016, in 2020, and in 2024. Most polls have Trump losing seniors to Hillary, then Biden, then Kamala. He has never lost those groups to either any of those candidates. I mean, not Kamala yet, but it is more than likely. If there is a major polling error in the states, right?

Right. It will be because they oversampled liberal seniors. This is the Seltzer poll, the Ann Seltzer poll that everyone shocked in Iowa found the group that had moved the most left from 2020 to 2024. According to the Seltzer poll were voters over 65, which in Iowa are basically 100% white, overwhelmingly evangelical and extremely Republican. Not only did they have senior women voters,

being the most democratic group in the entire state. Trump was...

even with senior men, senior men who move 30 points. I think that that is nonsense. I don't believe that to be true. I think that when people are polling and polling is a very expensive thing to do, liberal seniors who watch Rachel Maddow day in and day out, they cannot wait to tell you how much they hate Donald Trump. A lot of conservative seniors or just, you know, middle of the road seniors who like Trump don't want to talk to a pollster. And I think that that is

A big thing you may see where you see the polling error that flips states to Trump. If the polling error doesn't exist, then probably Kamala would win. But if it does exist, as I think it does, the states will flip to Trump. So in terms of how to even read these polls or how to weight these polls, is there a structural issue right now? Namely that.

The Democrats changed all the rules in 2020. And so now you've got way more mail-in balloting. You've got certainly way more early voting. You've got more opportunities for ballot harvesting, depending on your state. So is it...

Is it possible that we just don't really know how to read or even conduct these polls anymore? Because previously you could say, all right, past is likely to be precedent. We've conducted elections more or less the same way for most of the 20th century. And so you can kind of rely on past performance. Whereas now, as you say-

Who knows? Election Day voters are usually whiter and more Republican, but I don't know, maybe, you know, usually black voters are more likely to vote for the Democrats. And but they seem to not have as quite as much enthusiasm. So just like, I don't know.

Yeah, I mean, typically, I mean, the polls are pretty good in 2022. Polls were not that terrible in 2020. Actually, no, they were horrible in 2020. I take that back. But in 2022, they were not bad. In 2018, they were not bad. I think when Trump's name is mentioned, there are there's a certain population that need to tell somebody. I mean, at this point, all white liberal seniors are calling pollsters saying, please hear my opinion. I have to tell you how much I hate this man.

So what a lot of pollsters, what like Nate Cohen of the New York Times, what they're sitting there and they're predicting, not predicting, but what they are

Yeah.

Yeah.

So the state moves from a D plus 23 state to a D plus 16 state, which is a tremendous, tremendous movement to the right. But it still results in Republican losses just of how the votes are distributed. Yeah, that's what Cohen is saying and saying and saying Texas will get red or New Mexico will get red in Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, etc.

But we'll still lose the rustle because college educated whites are just too liberal now and will overload it. I don't necessarily believe that because it's all based on, as you said, how do we know who's going to be voting? They base these on voter registration structures and likely voting vote and pass voting voting structures. If a ton of non-college educated whites show up that didn't show up before, it will change it. I want to put two really important facts for you really quick.

One, last year, the governor, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, made automatic voter registration for the state. If you got a license, you were automatically registered to vote. That resulted in a ton of people who had never been engaged before all of a sudden being registered to vote. The second thing is, in 2016, there were 2.66 million non-college-educated white Americans in Pennsylvania who were not registered to vote. Mm-hmm.

There is a tremendous pool of untapped voters that we have never seen before. Who knows if they're going to go vote? And the last thing I think is really, really important right now in Pennsylvania, these Western counties are huge turnout for the Republicans, but you know what the most, the highest turnout percentage wise compared to 2020 for the Democrats are super, super red counties, Tioga, Potter. These are rural, rural counties that Trump is going to get between 70 and 80% in.

The only way Trump gets 70 to 80% is a lot of Democrats in those counties vote Republican. It could be, and we don't know this until after election day, but it could be that we're seeing conservative Democrats who make the state much more narrow because they have a huge voter advantage, registration voter advantage lead, are also showing up and excited for Trump. I don't know that, but it would explain why super, super, super red counties in the state have the highest percentage

percentage of Democrat vote compared to 2020 is that the conservative Democrats are also voting for Donald Trump right now. So we'll see. Because I saw in Nevada, it looked like Republicans had a real runaway early vote lead. But of course, there has to be a caveat. We don't technically know who these people voted for. They might be Republicans for Kamala, might be just Liz Cheney's clones all over Nevada, or it could be Democrats for Trump. But I thought in this election,

If there is going to be a divergence between voter ID and the candidate you vote for, it's obviously going to cut in Trump's favor, right? There are obviously more Democrats for Trump than Republicans for Kamala. Or am I just being too nosy? No, no. I mean, in like a state like Pennsylvania, right? So like out the collar counties outside Philadelphia, I would guess there would be a higher percentage of Republicans voting for Kamala in Montgomery and Delaware, those kinds of counties. But they are having very low.

Comparative to 2020, very low turnout. It is white working class counties that are having the 130, 140% turnover from 2020 where they are voting in huge numbers. If the realignment everyone is talking about, Nate Cohen saying is real, is real, then...

In heavily minority states like Nevada, you're going to see a lot of a sabbatical switch over. But I think what's more important right now in the run up to the election is that minorities in Nevada, if you look at where the precincts are, they're not choosing necessarily between Kamala and Trump. They're choosing between voting and the couch. And the couch is winning in a lot of these places.

There is no enthusiasm. David Axelrod talked with us yesterday on CNN. There is no enthusiasm for Kamala Harris coming out of these communities. This is not Obama 08. Like this is not this historic moment for whatever reason it is. And there's probably a million of them. But this is not where this, you know, this this is not 2008 at all when it comes to enthusiasm.

Yes. I always thought Obama's rhetoric was a little oversold. I don't think he's the greatest speaker since Pericles, but he is Pericles compared to Comey. I think it's a law that you have to praise Michelle and Barack Obama every time they speak. I think that's actually a law. It's a federal law. Yeah, yeah. I'm pretty sure. Death sentence if you sit there and say anything their speech was about. Correct. Now, before I let you go, Ryan, I have to know, we've talked a lot about the presidential campaign.

Right now, we're just speaking to Brent Buchanan. It looks like Republicans would have to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory in a way that is shocking, even for them, in order not to take the Senate. And then the House seems a little bit up for grabs. Maybe Democrats take the House. What's your read? How's it looking? Especially because if the Dems take the House, it's going to be through New York, most likely.

Well, through blue states. House majority runs through blue states. I mean, Illinois, 17 is the big one. The problem for Republicans is that we got redistricted pretty heavily in the 2020 redistricting. So a lot of seats in New Jersey and Illinois are just not up for grabs anymore. The other thing I would sit there and say for the Senate seat, I've heard that Republican numbers are in the mid-single digits in favor of Bernie Marino in Ohio, and it looks like he should win. In Montana, they're doing very, very well. It's basically, in West Virginia, obviously, they're

basically all but flip the governor and his dog will be the next two senators from West Virginia. The question is, can any of the Midwestern or Nevada Senate races flip? In Nevada, there is a 42,000 Republican advantage over Democrats in the state. This is the first time since 2014 when the very popular Republican governor, Brian Sandoval, was running for reelection and won every county in the state. I'm not saying that's going to happen this time, but that

That's the last time it happened where Republicans were outvoting Democrats in the run up. And part of it's the enthusiasm thing. So if there is a shock thing, it could come from Nevada, a shock result. But certainly Pennsylvania and Nevada

Michigan and Wisconsin could all be within a point and we'll have to wait and see. And that's why Democrats keep running in Wisconsin. I think they've ran out two third party candidates as a MAGA candidate and as a constitution candidate to siphon off votes that might stop Republicans winning Wisconsin, but it's, it's very, very tight. And a lot of these Democrats like, like Casey and Tammy Baldwin have never faced a competitive election before.

You know, I think, Ryan, you mentioned that Nevada could be a big surprise. That's Sam Brown there running for Senate. I think many people are saying the reason is because he gave his most prominent and first proper long sit-down interview.

on the Michael Knowles show. So I think many people, they're talking, I don't know how many, but there is some number of people who are crediting that with his- Yeah, look, when Italians sit there and interview people, the world changes. So maybe, I mean, that could be it. It's very dynamic. I think that's why with the hands and the... Okay, Ryan, this is very, very helpful to take a look. I am seriously...

Hoping. I feel good. Obviously, people are going to pray and they're going to fast. And as I've mentioned to everyone that I'm talking to today, either we can do another interview in the future where we can be celebrating, or at the very least, we can conduct a post-mortem interview from the Gulags after Kamala ships us all off in a few months. So, Ryan Groduski, thank you so much for coming on the show. Thank you, Michael. I want to get to a little bit of the iPad before we say goodbye.

The Democrats own the polls, says old soldier 1418156. They don't own all the polls. There are some Republican pollsters. The public polls, a lot of them are from Democrat. Well, are in conjunction with media outlets, many of which are Democrat. That's true. If Trump wins, he carries the House and Senate just like 16, but they will spend the first six months fighting him like they did with Obamacare. But will they spend the first six months fighting him like they did with Obamacare? Look, if Trump wins, even if Trump doesn't win, let's just say Trump's going to win.

The Republicans have to take the Senate, I think. It would be shocking. Like, the architecture of political science would collapse if Republicans somehow lose the Senate or fail to retake the Senate. For the House, I don't know. I just don't know. It's really tough. As Ryan was saying, redistricting was not great for Republicans. It's going to run through blue states. So I don't know. Even if Trump wins by a lot, even if the Republicans have 53, 54, whatever, in the U.S. Senate, I still don't know that we get the House.

Old people at my parish, Catholics at least, are voting Harris-Waltz says, Catholics at that are voting Harris-Waltz says Luke Thomas 12. That is really bad for them especially because it would seem inadmissible, impermissible for Catholics to vote for, for Christians of any flavor to vote for Harris and Waltz. I mean the woman wants to kill babies up until the moment of birth or afterward. These are non-negotiable issues.

Senna's basically a lock to go red, at least. That is true. Voting in AZ tomorrow, says Luke Jensen. So true.

Catherine, I just met another family at the traditional Latin Mass yesterday. They're huge Michael Knowles fans. That's great to hear. The red wave is coming here in Vegas. I feel good about Nevada, actually. Now, we will have Mr. Shapiro coming up momentarily. I think he's going to come on in about four minutes, unless I just go late. If I stay on the air, does that mean that we can just indefinitely postpone Ben?

That sounds, maybe I'll try to do that. That sounds great. Voting in Pennsylvania tomorrow with my hubby, says Kat Grove. That's great. Don't do the Julia Roberts thing where you undermine your, you know, you got to make sure. I want at least two votes out of the two of you for Trump. Michigan 7th, vote Tom Barrett, says Tyler H.,

Logic, not idolization. The trad Democrats, not the socialistic liberals running the party, are really angry about Kamala Harris being forced on them without any primary and having their primary candidate, Joe Biden, being shoved out. That's true. I'm sure they are the kind of more normal Dems. But are they irritated enough to vote for Trump? I don't think so. Are they irritated enough not to vote? Maybe. But, you know, I think most Democrats, if they're hardcore Democrats,

I'm just going to vote for the Democrat. You know, if somehow there were some coup d'etat and Trump had been thrown off the ticket, I would be really irritated. But would I be irritated enough to vote for a Democrat? No, I'd be irritated enough to call for the dismantling of the Republican Party or something like that. But but I wouldn't sacrifice the election to the other side. So I don't know that that's going to have a huge effect.

other than the fact that no one likes Kamala Harris, other than the fact that she never won a primary vote while running for president. But that's really just a matter of the Democrats replaced Biden with someone who's not a good candidate or who appears not to be a good candidate. Had they replaced Biden with Obama 2.0, then probably people wouldn't really care because voting is just an instrument to get good government. Michael is correct, says Honey Badger's dad. I want to frame that sentence. I just generally think that's a good thing to believe.

Baseball mom of eight. Unfortunately, although Harry Reid is dead, the Harry Reid machine lives on. Vonna would have to be overwhelmingly for Trump in order for him to win. And Harry Reid might vote for Trump or might vote for Kamala rather. Bring Brett along for election night, says Kodal 201-407-45. That'd be fun. We go to drag Brett out.

Noah Kuntz, Kuntz, I assume I pronounced that incorrectly. 20051126. What about this question? Was Mary sinless? Yes. Tyler H. Wait, Harry Reid is dead? Yeah, but Democrats are more ideologically driven than Republicans, says Honest Abe. Uh,

Yes, they are more ideological. They're not more principled. You know, there's just a difference. Conservatives kind of reject ideology, or they should reject ideology broadly, because ideology, to quote Michael Oakeshott, is the formalized abridgment of the supposed substratum of rational truth contained in the tradition. And conservatives have a fuller, more thorough view of politics that is based broadly on the tradition, not some irrational supposedly substrate of it. So they are more ideological. But conservatives...

But conservatives, I think, are more principled, and I think they are more inclined toward virtue. So they have motivations to go vote.

Aaron A23, Michael, I introduced my father to Mayflower for the first time yesterday. He tried the Dusk, which is my favorite blend, and gave glowing reviews among his top three. He says, well, thank you very much. Please thank your father for trying it out. Beautiful Mayflower cigars. And please thank your father for his excellent taste. We now have coming on a man who has terrible taste when it comes to cigars because he refuses to smoke any of my delicious Mayflower cigars. That would be the one and only

Ben Shapiro. Ben, welcome to your show. Well, I appreciate that, Michael. I've never had somebody throw me to my own show before. So while you're with us, I do have to get your quick gut take. Who takes the election? Which states go? And we will hold you accountable for this. So if you're wrong, you'll be fired. I know. Hold on. How specific do I have to be? Luckily, you're asking me this question right after you get the shock poll out of Iowa that says that all the other polls are wrong about everything. I think Trump wins.

I would bet at least a modest amount of money that Trump wins. Also, I don't know. I mean, who knows? We're all going to be arrested. I'm not going to bet with you because last time we bet was 2016 and I lost money to you. That's a good, you're right. And I have it. I still have it framed, even though I mobile deposited the check because I wanted the money to. I say Trump wins. Obviously, Republicans take the Senate and I'd put it at

52, I feel good about. I don't know, 53 maybe? I'm starting to feel good about Michigan. I think there's actually a good chance in Michigan. I feel kind of good about Sam Brown in Nevada. So I'm going to say let's stretch. Let's go to 53. For the House, I don't want to make any bets because I don't actually feel that good about the House. But I would say I would like Republicans to hold a slim majority. But if I really, if you made me put money on the line...

I think Democrats could take the House. So which blue wall states do you think Trump takes? Because obviously he's got to take one of them if he's going to win, obviously. Yes. I think Trump is looking... I still feel good about Pennsylvania. I actually think there's a shot in...

Michigan. I think there's a shot in Michigan, but I probably feel a little bit better about Wisconsin. Okay. What's your take? I think that's right. I think that if I'm looking at the blue wall states, he looks better in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than he does in Michigan, probably, which is weird because earlier on in the cycle, it seemed to be the reverse. Again, as you know, I'm a super pessimist, which means that I'm always thinking what's worst case scenario. Worst case scenario, the scenario where God hates us most is

is the one where Trump takes North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and ends up at 268. At which point this thing ends up in the courts because as you know, Michael, they screwed up the 2020 census, which means that a bunch of electoral college votes were not given to Florida and Texas when they should have been given to Florida and Texas. If the electoral college votes had been properly counted in the 2020 census, Trump could win without any.

of the blue wall states. So get ready for lawsuits galore from governors Abbott and DeSantis. If in fact, this thing ends up at 270 to 268, you'll end up at the Supreme Court with the Supreme Court determining whether or not any of these states have standing to sue for the Census Bureau's failure to actually properly count

the population back in 2020. So that is like the worst case scenario for the country, which means that if God hates us, which is always a possibility, then that could happen. Well, Michael, we're going to see you on election night tomorrow night. We're going to be together, presumably for the rest of time, because that's how long it takes all of these states to actually count their votes. So we need you to rest up so you can be just as useless as ever, but you can push the Mayflower cigars and really do your thing. It'll be awesome. Folks, Michael, I'll see you tomorrow night. All right, see you tomorrow.

I will see all of you along with Ben tomorrow. This is the Michael Knoll Show. ♪