cover of episode 614. Is the U.S. Sleeping on Threats from Russia and China?

614. Is the U.S. Sleeping on Threats from Russia and China?

2024/12/5
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John J. Sullivan
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Stephen Dubner
以《怪诞经济学》系列著名的美国作家、记者和广播电视人物。
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John J. Sullivan认为美国政府,无论共和党还是民主党执政,在应对来自俄罗斯和中国的威胁方面反应迟钝,缺乏有效的领导力。他以自身在莫斯科大使任期内的经历为例,详细阐述了俄罗斯政府的侵略性和与美国对抗的决心,以及美国政府在应对这些挑战时的误判和不足。他批评了美国政府在阿富汗撤军等问题上的决策失误,认为这些失误加剧了俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的可能性。他还分析了制裁对俄罗斯经济的影响,认为制裁虽然必要,但不足以改变俄罗斯的政策,并指出俄罗斯经济长期来看将为其侵略行为付出代价。此外,他还对特朗普政府时期美国对俄政策进行了评价,认为特朗普政府虽然对俄罗斯实施了制裁,但在处理对俄关系时,更多地从交易性经济角度出发,缺乏长远战略考量。最后,Sullivan表达了对未来潜在冲突的担忧,并呼吁美国政府加强对俄罗斯和中国的威慑,并与盟友加强合作。 Stephen Dubner则从访谈者的角度,引导John J. Sullivan阐述其观点,并提出一些具有挑战性的问题,例如:特朗普政府对俄政策的评价,美国政府在日内瓦会晤中对普京的应对,以及对经济制裁有效性的质疑。他还总结了访谈中John J. Sullivan的主要观点,并就美国对俄政策的未来走向进行了探讨。访谈中,Dubner还穿插了一些背景信息,例如俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的背景,以及美国在阿富汗撤军的影响等,使访谈内容更加完整和清晰。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did John Sullivan believe the U.S. was underestimating threats from Russia and China?

Sullivan argued that U.S. politicians, both Republicans and Democrats, were not effectively leading on foreign policy, leading to frequent miscalculations and unpreparedness for potential conflicts.

What was the significance of the Geneva meeting between Biden and Putin in 2021?

The meeting was significant as it was a rare face-to-face encounter between the two leaders, but it failed to address the looming threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, which Putin had already decided to pursue.

How did the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan impact Russia's decision to invade Ukraine?

The chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 was seen by Putin as a sign of American weakness and fecklessness, emboldening him to proceed with the invasion of Ukraine.

What were John Sullivan's impressions of President Trump's approach to foreign policy?

Sullivan noted that Trump viewed international relationships purely from a transactional economic standpoint, similar to Putin, which led to an undisciplined and unconventional foreign policy.

How did the Russian government treat John Sullivan during his tenure as U.S. ambassador to Russia?

The Russian government devoted significant resources to annoy, provoke, criticize, frustrate, embarrass, and compromise Sullivan, reflecting their view of the U.S. as an enemy.

What role did the Russian Orthodox Church play under Putin's regime?

The Russian Orthodox Church became an instrument of the Kremlin under Putin, promoting Russian nationalism and supporting the regime's goals.

Why did John Sullivan believe sanctions against Russia were necessary despite their limited effectiveness?

Sanctions were necessary to hold Russia accountable for actions like election interference, cyberattacks, and assassinations, even if they did not directly influence Russia's military actions in Ukraine.

What was John Sullivan's view on the potential impact of a second Trump term on Russia's actions in Ukraine?

Sullivan believed that a second Trump term could lead to reduced U.S. support for Ukraine, potentially resulting in Ukrainian capitulation to Russia's demands.

How did John Sullivan characterize the current state of the Russian economy due to the war in Ukraine?

Sullivan described the Russian economy as facing significant inflation and economic strain due to heavy spending on the war effort and defense industrial base, similar to the U.S. economy in the 1970s.

What was John Sullivan's assessment of the UN's effectiveness in addressing global conflicts like the war in Ukraine?

Sullivan criticized the UN as being ineffective and toothless, citing its inability to prevent Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the UN Secretary General's interactions with Putin.

Shownotes Transcript

John J. Sullivan, a former State Department official and U.S. ambassador, says yes: “Our politicians aren’t leading — Republicans or Democrats.” He gives a firsthand account of a fateful Biden-Putin encounter, talks about his new book Midnight in Moscow, and predicts what a second Trump term means for Russia, Ukraine, China — and the U.S.