Week 12 preview: Ravens-Chargers, Packers' kryptonite, can Panthers hang vs. Chiefs?
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This episode of Football 301, Charles McDonald joins me to preview Week 12. We do a deep dive into the juiciest matchups of the weekend. Ravens Chargers, 49ers Packers. Then one thing on the 10 other games on Sunday in the NFL. More interesting slate than you would first think. But still, as always, a very fun show with Charles. See you guys in a sec.

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Hello and welcome back to Football 301. I am your host, Nate Tice. We are going to be previewing Week 12, the Dirty Dozen Week. We are going to be looking at two big matchups for a deep dive, and then we're going to give one thing on the 10 other games on Monday, or Monday, Sunday, and the Monday night slate.

to help me do that, as always, for these Thursday preview shows and soon to be other shows, such as a Sunday recap show and a pre-Thanksgiving Tuesday show is my guy, Mr. Vertz, Charles McDonald. How you doing today, Charles?

I'm doing good. We've gotten consistent rain in New York City for the first time in like almost two months. So, hey, the tree in my backyard was looking very ill, very sick. It's been like unusually hot for November, but we finally got a cool little 50 degree day. So I'm posted up in the office recording this podcast. And yeah, I hope everyone else gets to stay as cozy as I am this weekend. I know that sounds really cozy. We got we just got chills in it.

Sunny skies, though. Chills. I would like a little rain. I think we're going over like 100 days since we've gotten rain here in Vegas. It's a desert, to be expected. I'm not totally crazy. Just one day. One day would be nice. But fun, interesting games here. The ones that we're going to be breaking down are two ones that, again, like I said, worthy of a deep dive. But when we go through the one thing, there's actually some more just tasty matchups than you would first think. Or at least...

tasty for football 301 ones that we find intriguing that we will throw we'll throw on the syllabus and then you guys have to read it and go okay yeah that was interesting you have one takeaway from it but that first game the harble

We have Ravens at Chargers. This is Monday night football. Chargers are three-point underdogs at home in Los Angeles. I don't know. I heard that Los Angeles crowd last week against the Bengals. That was the most pro-Chargers crowd I probably ever heard at that stadium or probably any stadium.

LA or San Diego stadium that they played in the last few years. But when you're watching this game, Charles, when you, when was, let's say when the Ravens have the ball against this chargers defense, both stack up pretty high and all the analytics stuff that we look at all the numbers. But when you're watching that side of the ball, what are you focusing on?

I thought what was really interesting about the Bengals-Chargers game, going into it, what we talked about was the Chargers, obviously really well-schemed defense. They have some talent. But overall, you can find maybe more talented units just from a personnel basis. And I think we kind of saw...

sides of that coin where there were times where, especially in the first half, where they were able to get the Bengals off the field, keep them in bad down distances, kind of disrupt the whole time to things. And then in the second half, it was like, wait, hold on, hold on, hold on. We got Jamar Chase and T Higgins. You guys don't really have anyone at cornerback that can keep up with that. So that just one-on-one superior talent kind of got them back into the game and made that a really close game by the end of it. And I think, you know,

Obviously, the Ravens' wide receivers aren't T. Higgins and Jamar Chase, but overall, still from just an elite talent perspective, they still do have guys like Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry who are capable of just taking over a game by themselves. I kind of just want to see...

how the Chargers fare again when they have to go against like another pairing of elite talent that are kind of going to attack the game in similar ways, just like from two wide receivers to Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, where both of them are really, you know, elite rushing threats. And obviously Lamar's having a crazier throwing ball. The Ravens, they got to bounce back from last week. The Steelers speed bump, man. The Steelers speed bump. I can't get over it.

Yeah. The Derrick Henry fumble, I was like, oh, my God. That's what I knew they were going to lose. And I think that was very, very early in the game. It was. I think it was first or second drive. Yeah. Way early. Yeah. Well, because I was at MetLife watching Aaron Rodgers go five straight drives without getting a first down. So I was kind of flipping around the NFL when Jets were on offense. And that's when I saw that. I was like, oh.

Steelers won. Steelers won. It's very early in the game, but they won. But last week, the Steelers, they held the Ravens. And if you just watch the game, obviously, I don't think any of this is surprising. Held them in the season low in net yards per attempt, yards per play, points per drive, EPA per play, EPA per dropback, success rate, dropback success rate. And also, this was the only, the second time this year, the Ravens offense has been held to negative EPA. The other time was week two against the goddamn Raiders, which... Oh, God, that was a game, yeah.

Every week that goes by, I'm like, what the hell happened in that game? Yeah, I think one area is going to be interesting for the Ravens. Their pass protection recently hasn't been all that great. Their 30th impressor rate given up over the past month.

And we know like the Chargers, that's a team that can take advantage of that. So I think this is probably just going to be another game where Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry just go absolute sicko mode and carry them over to the finish line. Because I think outside of that, they kind of do match up well as far as the Chargers defense versus the Ravens offense. Yeah, it's a strength on strength, especially, you know, run stuff. The Chargers stack up top three, top five, every metric that you just laid out there for the season. And then,

I haven't played the toughest slate of offenses, but they've given the Chiefs some fits. They were giving the Bengals a little bit of fits until the talent always wins out. Yeah. And every sport talent always wins out. All things being equal, talent wins out. But, you know, I haven't said that like the Chargers. It's an Ida Twitter thread once. I think after they played the Browns, I'm like, all right, I'm going to study what these what the Chargers are doing right now. It was like Joey Bosa made a play and it was like, oh, yeah, Joey Bosa. And then Khalil Mack made a play. It's like, oh, yeah, Khalil Mack.

Derwin James makes a play. Oh yeah, Derwin James. Yeah, you guys are really good. You guys are stars and they're playing well. James is playing in the slot a bunch. The Chargers use a lot of dime. They'll use 60 Bs no matter what the look is on offense. I think on early downs, I looked it up.

when like the offenses are in two or fewer receivers you know so base personnel groupings uh the chargers have the highest rate of dime usage in the nfl and it's like not even close it's like almost 20 percent no one else is like above five percent uh but no they're just really well coached they got uh puna for interior tart free agent free agent additions in the middle who are like just playing really well and i mean the chargers interior we're

or Turner's spine, I should say, was probably one of the biggest weaknesses in the entire NFL for the last two years. And now it's like a strength, which is it's just been really fun to watch. Like these guys are just playing really well, play really sound. Tuli Tulioppo. I think I got that. Had six pressures last week. He's playing well. Dan Hanley, the linebackers playing well. All these guys are playing really well. So having said that, Ravens are a different beast.

And that is kind of what's just so interesting about that is like, yeah, I think they're going to hold up most part on this, the Chargers defense and stuff, but they're still susceptible to what the Ravens are good at. Like you can get explosive runs against this Chargers defense. I think they're, yeah, they're 26 and explosive run rate allowed. This is Derek Henry Lamar. This is where they go. And while the Chargers defense is good against certain things, like certain other things, like they're good against play action. They're really good.

against deep or quarterback design runs. So like zone reads, all that stuff, not a big sample size, but they're very sound. They don't kind of get out of whack. This is where you see Jesse Minter. It's kind of college background kind of crop in here. He's like, oh, I know these looks like a quarterback running. Yeah, I got it. Like watch him against Kyle or they snuffed out everything. Not good against scrambles, though.

So there's the difference that the quarterback runs their 25th and QB rushing yards allowed per game, but it's all mostly on scrambles. They're 30th and scramble yards allowed per game to quarterbacks only above the Jaguars and the Giants. And this is because it's a double edged sword of how they want to play.

They're very scheme heavy, very like game plan based defense, a lot of zone coverages. They do a lot of bracket stuff that goes down and charting is too man. Chase or Higgins cooked one of them. Oh, they did the double move. Oh, yeah, yeah. Torched it. They love doing that on a fork down. It was a baller play. I love that. And it goes down as too man. And it's one of these things where my quality control coach comes back into play and I'm like, it's bracket, guys.

But what bracket is, it's a double team. It's a safety in a corner on one guy. They'll do it on both sides. Really good against a Higgins or a Chase or something like that. Or a Ravens defense offense that sometimes only trots out two receivers. And okay, I'm going to focus on the two receivers out there. Zay Flowers and Rashad Bateman or...

the shadow of Deontay Johnson, and I'm going to focus on them. But that allows for scrambles. Everybody's eyes are on the receiver or their tight end matchup, and no one looks at the quarterback. So why I'm saying all that is, you know, look for a little more scrambles on these passing downs and look for maybe some explosive runs on Derek Henley on early downs. And again, this is going to be more, I feel like this is more of a second half.

Like the first half, they're all going to I think it's going to be kind of neutral. And the second half, we'll see whether the Chargers have new stuff to snuff it out or if the Ravens get there and they and they pop something later in the game. So really fun matchup, though. I was just trying to find angles on it.

The one thing I saw was also another thing is Chargers are not good against screens, running back screens. They've allowed gains of 15, 37, 18, and 33 yards on running back screens. You know who's good on running back screens? Derrick Henry.

You know, just let him chug down, you know, tractor, you know, he's he's averaged 14.8 yards on running back screens in his career, nearly 15 yards, only taking two of them this year. And they went from 27 and 23 yards, but he's taken a ton in his career. He's been always been very good at it. So that's another thing I just want to throw in there. So maybe they sprinkle in a running back screen to slow down that pass rush, because like you mentioned, the Chargers can get after you like they they don't need to blitz.

but they'll blitz in the late downs, but man, they still have clue. Max still Joey bus, still tear tarts, still have to lay to the oppo. Like they can really create pressure just naturally. And they do everything else on the backend to let that, to open up that pressure and let those guys get home. So it's fun. It's, it's going to be like, there's natural answers, but there's, but this chargers defense is really smart. So I just kind of want to see what pops the other side of the ball though.

you know, there's good, there's bad. There's a really good quarterback on this side of the ball too. But when you're watching Chargers offense versus Ravens defense, what you checking out on that side, Charles? I mean, just more, just Herbert heroics because I keep, I keep, I keep, because I have so much fun watching this offense. And then when I look at the metrics, they're like, yeah, everything. You're right. Right. Right.

And I just sit there and think, man, where would they be without Herbert? Because when I'm visually watching it, it doesn't feel as bad as when you actually start cutting through some of the numbers. Totally agree. Down to down, there's still a bottom 10 offense in the league. It just feels like...

Like when they need a play, they get it. And I don't really know like always how to quantify that. But I feel like when I'm watching them every time or just about every time, especially in the first half, like in the fourth quarter, when Herbert had to just drop back there and make a play, he was there and able to make it. But they still need those plays because quite honestly, like they're just, they just waste a lot of plays before they get going. And I know that part of that is just due to

Harbaugh's philosophy and one day they will actually be like a consistent running the ball team today is not quite that day yet like if they

get the explosives from Dobbins. They're not really doing all that much all the time on the ground, even though it looks so great. You know, you got the look lined up, you got the motion coming across, Matlock's improving, then three yards. I was like, it's the coolest three-yard run you've ever seen, but it's still only going for three yards at the end of the day. And I think that this is

This is like sneakily a tough matchup for the charge because, you know, if we're looking over like just recent trends, Ravens defense kind of coming to life a little bit over the past month of football. The Ravens defense are ninth in success rate, 10th in success rate against the dropbacks, seventh in rushing success rate, and their first in red zone defense in terms of percent of drives that ended a touchdown. Now we did also see within that same sample size, the Bengals absolutely torched them.

on Thursday Night Football. But still, even if you're doing that against some weaker offenses, you're still in a much better spot than where you were at

at the start of the season. So I just want to see if they can get them kind of in the third and long because I did find an interesting split here where the Ravens, the cover zero looks, they're sixth in the league in terms of how often they use cover zero. And I found that Herbert against cover zero looks gets sacked 15.6% of the time when the Chargers face cover zero looks, which was by far like one of the worst rates in the league. Yeah.

Yeah. So if they can, if they can stop the run early downs and maybe just come after them, I'm sure you'll probably get burned a few times because Herbert is still good to find those one-on-one matchups. And even guys like Ladd-McCaulkey have shown some ability to get up in the man coverage, but he still, I still haven't been able to just fully jump off of this Ravens personnel yet.

I feel like the catch point luck for Brandon Stevens has to improve at some point. Because it's like a lot of times he's like Mirian and he's close and then the ball comes and he just forgets how to play football. But if you can just blitz Herbert and maybe sometimes the interior isn't as sound in terms of picking up what they need to, you can force them into some bad third down sacks because just the way they play offense, they're prone to the third and longs.

Yeah. No, they are. I had the number. I'm writing about this matchup. I haven't finished it. Sorry, Joey. Editor Joey, haven't filed it yet. No, they definitely – oh, they had the long 26th-ranked average distance to go on third down, the Chargers do. And like you said, it's like the coolest two-yard gain you'll ever see on first down. It's like, oh, man, look at all these big boys out there. Tight end. You got a defensive lineman at fullback. Oh, man, here comes the motion.

two yards and, and then, okay, okay. They're going to do it again. Okay. One yard. All right. Here's a third and seven. All right, go, go help us out, Justin. Okay, cool, cool. Good pass. And it's all great. And I, I love watching it the next day, but I'm sure it's not a lot of fun for the quarterback to operate in. Uh, yeah, the chargers are 30th and early down success rate on running back runs. Uh,

They're 29.7% success rate. The league average is 36%. You want to be at 40%. That's really the threshold for a good run offense. So they're not even close to that, despite the good designs. They'll pop stuff in the second half. And you saw that at the Bengals game, the end of the Bengals game. But every week, usually in the second half, because they play in a lot of close games, they will pop something and Dobbins will pop something. They're eighth in explosive run rate in the second half. So there's some like,

merit to this formula. Like, hey, just keep poking at it and the bubble will pop. But also it's like, yeah, I know, but you guys are getting away with it because you have an all world quarterback playing like at an all world level right now. So again, it's like I appreciate the formula, but like you said,

they need a little bit better personnel to actually like take advantage of what they're trying to do. Tons of play action. The Chargers are fifth in design rush rate and highest rate of play action in the entire NFL. Like this is horrible all the way. Like this is horrible. It's like Mike Love from the Beach Boys. Like don't F with the formula.

That's basically what he's saying with this formula. But it's kind of cool to watch Herbert in this because he's being and you can see and we've joked about it. Everyone's seen the videos, but you can see Herbert being confident and unlocked in this offense. Like he he is running more. It's the highest scramble rate he's ever had in his career. He's pushing the ball more. He has the deepest air yards per pass attempt that he has in his entire career. Eight point six yards this year. His average of his entire career was seven point four.

So he's pushing things a yard deeper on average, which he's tied actually for eighth with Lamar Jackson, who we all know, well, has no qualms with pushing the ball.

But it's really cool to watch like just the aggressive Herbo just doing stuff like turbo Herbo. Like, I mean, it's in watching the confidence he has with lab McConkie watching with Will Disley and pushing the ball of these guys. And it doesn't matter. Quentin Johnston is playing better, even if he's still more league average. Okay. I'm finding him and getting him the ball. I'm trying to rip these aggressive throws again.

It's not the best matchup for them because the Ravens run defense is really freaking good. The Ravens are second in EPA allowed for running back run. They have the lowest explosive run rate allowed in the NFL. They've only allowed six explosive runs, which are games of 12 yards or more in the entire season, according to True Media. Comparison, the league average is 17. The commanders lead this category with 29.

So they've given up six. The league leader has given up 29 explosive runs. So again, a strength on strength thing. They don't let you let you gash them. And then the chargers can't you if they can't get there in second half, can they put these put the game away if it's close? So again, it's I think the first point you said, the first sentence you said is kind of nailed it. It's going to be a Herbert hero ball mode. I think that's just what it's going to be. It's going to be where you got to get those five, six huge throws and

try and keep this game ugly, you know, make it a race to 20. And I think that's what the, the chargers formula has to be, but there's a reason the Ravens are three point favorites on the road, even if the chargers are playing really, really good ball. So if I was Zach Warwick, I would kind of, I know it's been a shaky plan, but I would kind of trust my DBs to get the job done. You know,

Right. You might get caught once or twice, but just make them do it 50 times. Like, you know, I would just like not chase. You know what I mean? Like just play sound, play sound, play sound. Just keep everything in front of you. Yeah. I mean, the Ravens get gashed through the air. Like they don't get gashed in a run, but they get caught. So like you said, it's been improving. It's not as bad as it was the first month. So maybe it improves a little bit more.

rocon smith is also dealing with the hammy so that's yeah might not be fun for them but it's just nice to see uh herbert unlocked after several years of the joe lombardi offense era and even whatever last year was with kellen moore like it's just kind of really cool to see him just playing this way even if the stats aren't crazy it the eye test has just been really really cool but um last thing i'll say was the other side of the ball was the uh

Chargers are actually really good too. And this might be interesting against that Ravens O-line. So many twists and games and pass rush plans. So that's another thing I'll be interested to see if they have something cool to kind of corral Lamar and kind of keep him in the pocket, even though Lamar's been dicing people from the pocket this year. So it's a fun matchup. I'll see if they really do.

Last thing I have, I just want to see if they go, you know, kind of like Madden 04 mode, Vic, every once in a while, where you put Dane Henley, Spy, Lamar. Because he might be one of the few linebackers that's fast enough to actually play in front of him. But still, he's just haven't done. Yeah. Converted former receiver. No, Henley's playing like a pro bowler. He's really. Denzel Perryman next month is playing well, but Henley has just been a revelation. It's really cool.

And a tear tart, long time favorite. It's just been a monster. Yeah. Yeah. You know, contract years. I mean, it's a one-year deal, so it's automatic contract year, but predictions for this, like I said before, chargers are three point underdogs. I think the Ravens win close one, but I think the Ravens win pull away in the fourth quarter.

Yeah, I think Ravens. I'm going to go Ravens win. It's a push, though. It's three points. I'm thinking like a 24-21 or a 2017 type game. All right, moving on to the next game. The next deep dive breakdown. This is one that I feel like we get every single year. Maybe it's because these teams always win or whatever it is, but it's a classic. We've got the 49ers at the Packers. One of my earliest football memories is these two teams playing in the playoffs and the Terrell Owens catch.

from Steve Young. He gets whacked in the end zone, but still catches it. Such a really fun game. I remember being on the Stairmaster a few years ago watching it. They had like an old NFL Network replay when I was watching it, but

When the 49ers have the ball against this Packers defense, what are you checking out, Charles? I guess the first thing I just want to see if Christian McCaffrey can get going again because he just doesn't look right right now. I know like when you look at the – even when you look at some of the advanced stats from last week, like he still had a quality game from an efficiency perspective. But you just watch him run, right?

not doesn't have the same juice as he used to and maybe that's something that can get better as as they start to you know kind of move through the season and getting more reps towards the postseason but

Man, it just seems a little tough. Seems a little tough for where he is right now. But I think what's interesting is, you know, I keep looking at the Packers' defense point totals, and they don't always give up so many points. But then when you look at their down-to-down stuff, they're just abysmal. Like, bottom five in success rate for a bunch of stuff. They don't get a whole lot of pressure. They allow a lot of explosive plays. But again, they still get turnovers.

Their red zone defense is okay sometimes. So they're like, they are stretching the limits of Ben don't break defense. And I think if there is a game for the 49ers run game to at least like start turning the corner and, you know, moving in the right direction, this could be one of them. To me, it just kind of depends like if they can actually exploit, you know, some of the looks that they're going to be able to get and how it's going to be blocked up because I don't think that anything's wrong with

where not too much is wrong with where Shanahan's scheme is right now. But the players, they're just not playing up to the standard, I think, that's been said to them in the past. So this Packers defense is gettable. I really expect the 49ers to have a pretty big day through the air. I actually think

Brock Purdy has been playing all right this year. Last week wasn't his best game, but he seems to be a better quarterback this year than he was at any point in the past. So I kind of expect the 49ers to have a big day on offense. And then to me, it's just watching...

how does the run game look in terms of explosives? Because I think they'll always be able to be a run game where for the most part, you can just kind of play on time and on schedule. But the explosives is what really kind of got this offense going to the next year. Like when you can get explosive runs on first and second down, that makes your life so much easier as a play caller, as a quarterback, really for the entire ecosystem. So if they can start to get that back, maybe they can go on a run, but that's kind of what we're waiting for here with the 49ers.

When I'm watching 49ers, if Purdy's scrambling on the first couple drives, then I'm like, uh-oh. Because usually their opening scripts are so good, so that's always when I'm checking out. But no, it's a great call. Packers are the sixth worst...

sixth worst defense in terms of combined success rate and explosive play rate against early down runs, which is not where you want to sit when you're about to go against a Shanahan offense because he'll just pepper it and pepper it and pepper it until it pops. I'm with you that I think that this could be a get right game for them. They also are Packers are 20th in pressure rate, which is

Huge because, you know, in a bad way, because this 49ers offense, you mentioned some of the skill guys feel like, you know, take a step down. There's no IU, which is a big deal. You know, Debo just doesn't feel good.

as crazy good this year, you know, even as a receiver or mostly as a receiver, especially McCaffrey. Of course, we've talked ad nauseum about him and I'm coming back from everything. But, you know, Purdy's scrambling more than he has this year, like ever. It's nearly 10%. The last year was three and a half percent in comparison, like league averages are usually around 5%. But not all of this is on him. Some of it is on him and some of it's on the offensive line is really taking a step back.

Yeah. Yeah. That, that is, and which is always kind of a thing with Shane and offenses. He can get by with adequate average offensive line play because of the design. So many boots, so much movement, so much stuff that just makes their lives easier. They're dropping back more.

Not the line you want to drop back more with. He has the highest pressure rate he's ever faced in his entire career. I know it's not a long career, but there's enough data points on it. And not all of it's on him, like I said, but the thing is 16 of the pressures he's had this year have been extended pressures, which next gen stats says four seconds or longer. He had 13 of those combined over the previous two years. That's a lot. To me, that is a

a combination of guys not getting open, a combination of him not trusting the guys getting open. If you have backup receivers in or a rookie receiver, I totally get that. Kittle's not in last week. Like they're always just, they're taking turns on who's missing each week. So totally get that. Why he's holding onto the ball.

Also, when you lose that little bit of confidence, that'll lead you to scrambling. Is that guy open? I'm just going to run it a little bit. He's been sacked five times this year on extended plays. He had 13 of those combined in the two years previously. His time to sack is 5.15 seconds this year, which is very long. Last year, it was 4.21 seconds. So every play just feels like... The passing game feels boom-bust, which before never really felt like that. It felt just like, oh man, just another...

chunk play, chunk play, chunk play, not a lot of negatives. So now it just feels a little bit more volatile, even if it's still good. That's what's so funny. It's like this struggling 49ers offense. Let me see where they rank. Fourth, sixth, seventh, fourth. Everything I look at. And I'm like, man, this Chargers offense is booming, man. Look at that. 25th, 28th, 27th, every stat. I know it's just the...

Feel is really a big thing. They have 11 drops this season. They had 11 all of last season. They had nine all the year before that. It's just that this team just can't catch a break. Like Jake Moody's misses several kicks. Like just like it's just one thing after another where they just can't get out of their own way. This is a great matchup for them to take a deep breath and just roll for the second half or the last quarter of the season.

Matt and I were looking at earlier this week, everyone's like remaining schedule, how everyone stands. And it's like, man, they got a tough, the MC West is not easy and they got a decently tough slate against that. But the other thing too is,

Could be a Kittle game if he's playing. Packers, not good against the tight ends, which makes sense because their linebackers can be up and down. A lot of single high stuff. They're 31st in defensive success rate against tight end targets, which, yeah. So, might be a George Kittle game, which, again, that's been kind of the safety net for Purdy this year. And maybe see a little bit more of that this year or this week. Other side of the ball. Packers have the ball against this 49ers defense. What are you checking out, Chuck?

I want to see the Packers offense can still keep being a machine on first and second down because when you just it's really funny honestly how stark the splits are when you like split first and second down versus third and fourth down because especially over the past month I think it's more pronounced because on first and second down they're basically top five, top three, top two in all offensive stats except for like rushing success rate which they're 11th so

Like even that is like, you're still fine in that regard. But I, when they, when they go to third and fourth down this, this is just over the past month. Cause I was just looking at some recent trends. They are 25% on third down conversions over the last month of football, which I found to be,

a little surprising. I don't know because I just think of Jordan Love and this high-flying passing game that exists sometimes. But, you know, when you start to look down on some of these critical plays where they need to get things done, they're not always efficient there. They have their 30-second success rate on offensive dropbacks from third and fourth down over the past month at 23.1%. And this is all with

the seven shortest distance to first down and third down with 6.1 yards, which would make sense because they're so good on first down. So they are in some of these manageable third down situations, but they can't convert for whatever reason, which is why I think sometimes, which is why

you'll be watching these games like, man, they look so good. And then even the Bears game, they scored 20 points or they haven't actually scored all that many points, even though they're moving the ball or Jordan Love throws, you know, it's one of those interceptions that he's prone to do every once in a while. But still, where this gets scary for me for the Packers offense is I know they're a better offense than 49ers defense at this point.

But the 49ers defense, you still have to account for having basically two assassins in the front seven with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. And if we're going to have like an off game by chance, we're not actually getting to good third long distances. That's where like those guys can really start to affect the game and turn the tides back towards the 49ers. Because if those guys don't go off, I don't really know if I see a pathway for them.

the 49ers defense, they just seem to be flatly average across the board. Like no matter how, no matter which way you want to slice it, like the first down, second down, you know, come up in the different portion of the season. They've been like the 16th best defense since the start of the season. But when you have Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, you can still get off the field at critical times. So that's really what I'm looking forward to, to see if the Packers do find themselves in some of these, you know,

poor third and long distances, even though they're not really prone to being in those situations, if Nick Bosa and Fred Warner can really start taking over the game that way.

Yeah. The shoot. I mean, even just talked about, it's always just one thing after another with this 49ers team, you know, Nick Bosa gets hurt last week is dealing with that. I forgot. I even mentioned Brock Purdy is dealing with a bum shoulder. It's just, it's just like, they just can't help. Like they just can't get healthy and everything, but it's a great point that it's avoiding Bosa and avoiding Fred Warner. And then a little bit of avoiding DeMondador Lenore, especially with various word out, you know, when he's been hurting his, with his stuff, but,

That is kind of like, all right, if we can avoid that and mitigate these two, okay, then we can, we got something here. And you watch the Seahawks who are,

Seahawks have been so up and down on offense this year. You can see them get after him a lot in the second half, especially after Bosa got hurt. And you can see them set stuff up. You can see them kind of just go, okay, we're going to try this. All right, here's a counterpunch. Here's a screen. Let's get Fred Warner going every which way, you know, trying to control him. And even last week, the Packers against the Bears front, you know, Bears have some similarities defensively.

defensive structure wise to to the 49ers so sometimes it's nice to have a little takeaway on that i watched so much cardinals offense first chargers defense film this week who else can i look at that's kind of like the ravens all right cardinals i guess um but they uh so just trying to find those like matchups and the packers you just kept mentioning their run game stuff it is so cool just watching what they get to and they're doing so much to try and make the linebackers be wrong

Jet sweeps, split action where a tight end crosses the face. They had one where they had a jet sweep, a fake handoff, a split action, and then they handed it off. So three things to make the linebackers figure out what to do. And it's hard. It's so hard. I like the 49ers chances better when they had this guy named Dre Greenlaw, who's working back from his injury right now.

But if he's not out there and they just got Fred Warner, Devondre Campbell has just been a glaring weakness on his defense. The Seahawks attacked him like they went after him. And the Packers, I would. Ryan Grubb's been up and down. LaFleur is way better of a play designer and play caller than Grubb is. And so that is just that's a little dicey. So, yeah, it's kind of like.

Can the Packers finish drives? Like, that's what it is. Like no shooting themselves in the foot, no love turnover, no drops on a third down and they'll be all right. But again, they just have, it's easier said than done. It is kind of funny. The foreigners offense would, I would say is still good. The

The defense is average-ish, maybe slightly above average, and the special teams is terrible. And I'd still be like, oh, yeah, they're okay. But it's just like, it just doesn't feel that way as I watch them every week. It's just like, again, they just can't get over the hump, which is just so strange because they usually can't. Linebackers matter, folks.

They do. Especially if you want to play everybody off ball, like they really matter. If you want to keep everyone back there to do everything. Yeah. They, they really matter. Um, all right. What's your predictions for this? Packers are two point favorites at home. Ooh, uh,

I like the 49ers to get it done. I think the offense is a big day. That's it. I just think the 49ers offense plays better than the Packers offense. But I could see a shootout here, depending on, you know, which version of the Packers passing game we get. Because sometimes they're just like a tick off, you know, and it ends in some nasty interceptions. But for the most part, they've been really good on offense this year. I just think the 49ers play will be better this week. Looking at the weather, 45 degrees.

On Sunday, only 20% chance of rain or snow or sleet or wherever they're going to get in Green Bay at this time of the year. I'm going to, I'll go with the Packers just to change it up. I'll go with the Packers. But I agree with you that I think this could be a pretty, like there should be some fireworks, I think, on both sides of the ball. Both have some good answers for the other side. So I think it's just a, God, I sound like an old coach. Whoever makes fewer mistakes. Yeah.

Whoever has the fewer turnovers. Both quarterbacks will give you a chance every once in a while. They will. I know. There's going to be some highlight throws and there's going to be some iffy choices, I think, from both of these quarterbacks. So it'll be fun. All right. We're going to take a quick break after we just wrapped up those deep dives. Then we're going to get to one thing for the rest of the Sunday slate.

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bears it all with transparent pricing. Smile, you're on Cricut. We are back with one thing to watch for week 12. We're going to be alternating who takes the lead on this and then, you know, maybe we'll drop in, you know, I don't know, in a fighting game, you can kind of call in a support. Were you a Marvel versus Capcom guy at all?

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Calling the supporting guy, you know, jump in there. I think that's what we're doing here. So starting with Vikings at Bears in a classic NFC North tilt. The Bears are three and a half point underdogs at home with their vibes. Charles, this is one of your games.

Three and a half, I know. When you're watching this game, what's your one thing watching Vikings-Bears? Oh, man. This just... I just am dreading the eventual Caleb Williams discourse after this game because, like, dude, Brian Flores has to be drooling right now with looking at the Bears offense because, you know, we've seen offenses, and I think, like, the best...

brand of offense that has had success against this Brian Floyd's defense is like teams that are organized and like have a good plan and know what they're doing and sound rules yeah competency all the funky stuff but this Bears offense like they're so sloppy like there's no attention paid to the details that just seems like worst case scenario against his defense uh

And you can just look at all the metrics. It's going to be heavily sided towards Vikings defense over Bears offense. And I think that we might officially go crazy after this game because we'll be like, no, no, no, no, no. Look, look, there's good plays here for Caleb. I promise you there's good plays here. But the overall production is going to be bad. Like when they said you said the spread is three and a half points. I thought that that might be the Bears point total for the game because I don't see them getting to the end zone this week.

And it's like, even the Vikings, like, too, even I...

Kind of matches eye test, but then I look at the stats and like they're really good against the run, which is like kind of backwards. How you think when it was usually with blitz happy teams and funky defenses, they're not really good against the run. They're usually average at best, but they're like the best or one of the best. And if you look at all the metrics, so it's not like, you know, the Bears are it's like, hey, just run the ball, make it easy on Caleb. And, you know, no, this is going to be a we keep using hero ball, but Caleb hero ball kind of game. I think we're going to see some

he's really good with the protection stuff. This will challenge it. This is going to challenge it. This is going to hurt a lot of rules. And even a guy like,

Will Levis last week has some success because he'll stand there and just fire things downfield. He'll throw grenades and just go, oh, some explode, hurt us. Some explode and hurt you. Caleb is more of a sniper. Caleb is very pristine with how he wants to play. He's not going to take chances if he doesn't think they're there, which is something he needs to work on. I still think he needs to kind of loosen up a little bit, you know, you know, just loosen up, skip class, you know, when as you're as you're back there.

And I think this is a good game for him to try that, which might lead to discourse if it goes sour. If he does try to extend a play or he does try to launch the ball downfield. But that's how you have to beat this defense. You have to run the ball and go for chunks in the air. You do not beat this defense nickel and diming them. What time is this game?

This is, I'm going to guess it's a noon game or 1 p.m. Okay. Thank God. One o'clock. And so not to make it when there's three games in the afternoon. Yeah. Yeah. That's a very good point. The will have his grenade bit. I thought you were going to say, and sometimes they explode on me because that's exactly what he does.

Like the play, and this is so off topic, but the play where he threw a pick versus the Dolphins last year, he threw a pick to Zach Seiler and they're like on their own goal lines. The screen got picked off and Will Levis tries to like lower his shoulder into Zach Seiler on the goal line and got demolished. Just like, dude, come on, come on. Don't you want to play football and make some money?

You appreciate the toughness with them, but it's just always like, man, just, just on F yourself. That's all I want to say to him. I mean, shoot, that's how the coaches seem to talk to him too. But yeah, it's,

Vikings just have some good answers against this. And, and, you know, the bears defense is starting to let up. They had some good moments, but they, they let up some explosives right now that you can kind of get them that way. And since the Vikings offense that thrives with explosives. So, you know, some fun matchups there, but yeah, it's just this bears team, another team that can't seem to get out of their own way. But yeah,

I will say that Caleb is playing well and I'll stand by it. And he's playing smart with it. And we've got some creation last week, which is really good. He's a good player guys. I'm telling you, but I'll go into one of my games next for one thing. That is a game that even though it's a seven and a half point spread, the lines at the Colts and the Colts are seven and a half point underdogs at home. I actually think this game is a little more interesting than you would think at first glance. Um,

Just because, well, one, Anthony Richardson's playing. But, you know, the Colts, they run the second most second highest rate of play action. The Lions are the best defense against play action. You know, EPA success rate, all that type of stuff.

So are we going to – and last week, if you saw Anthony Richardson really thriving, a lot of those big plays were – it's a lot of shotguns, so it doesn't have the same feel as an under-center play-action play. But a lot of play-action stuff that was just opening up the middle of the defense and kind of just got to see Richardson with some clean reads and really just throwing guys open. I mean, he had his best game as a pro, it felt like. But then also the thing I really want to look at is –

The Lions, no matter what, run man coverage. They blitz at the highest rate on late downs, on third and fourth down.

How do the Colts handle this? How does Rich, does Richardson scramble a bunch? He's not really a guy that like chooses scramble first. He like, he really tries to work from the pocket. It's like, well, I'm optimistic about him still long-term, but the Colts are starting a rookie center and Tanner Bortolini go Badgers who actually is playing very well. I do want to give him a shout out, but he's still a rookie. And then they have an undrafted free agent at right guard. They have a likely backup at left tackle.

Uh, they allowed the third highest pressure rate against the blitz this season, according to next gen stats. And they're going against the most blitz happy team in the NFL on late downs.

a little scary that's a little scary for the colts uh but we'll see hey throw them in the fire maybe they surprise you like i said bernalini has been playing well does richardson surprise you against the blitz that's going to leave you open you know explosive plays down the field are we getting back to that 48 completion percentage from richardson you know as he tries to gas you it's a good test um colts defense has improved a little bit but you're going against the lions offense and uh

You know, and I just want to see that interior Colts offensive line against DJ Reeder, Lee McNeil. You know, you got some beef on the interior. So kind of just an interesting styles makes fights match up. And a great test for Richardson after going against a I don't know what to call the Jets defense now. A team that a zombie defense right now. Madden defense, you know, good in theory. Yeah.

A lot of 80-something overalls that you're not used to. Yeah, that's actually exactly how it is. It's like a good man defense with a bad user. I mean, shoot, even like Sauce Gardner's getting torched by Alec Pierce and stuff. So, yeah, not exactly what you want. But, yeah, I'm very interested in this game. Obviously, I think the Lions have a ton of advantages. You know, Ben Johnson versus Gus Bradley is not where you want to sit. But that Gus Bradley defense is like 20th now, not 32nd.

Direct, direct, slightly bad as opposed to just outright bad. So anything to add on this game? Or I want to just get to your next one. No, no, I have too much to add. Although when I did go to the game this week, it was pretty cool to see how excited Anthony and Shane were that he was able to put that game together. Yeah, you got to talk to him.

Yeah, I did. I got to talk to... I got to talk to the press conference and both of them briefly after the press conference. And they were... They were feeling good, man. Like, that was... That was... It was pretty obvious that the past two, three weeks had worn on them a little bit. And then just to get this game, you have no more questions about who's going to be the starting quarterback moving forward. I...

That was pretty cool to see. And I know for Anthony to kind of get that off of his back and actually put together a really complete performance, I know that meant a lot for him. So let's hope that keeps rolling because...

Like you you we should all be rooting for someone that athletic to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league and it's still a painful form The week is better with good quarterbacks. So it's just you got cheer for all of them That's what you want to see. So no it was it was a positive performance now It's about stacking not just good plays and good series. It's good games now. So stack those back-to-back So we'll see how he does I can say very I mean probably the best team in the NFL the lines. All right

All right. Next is one of your games. It's an AFC East tilt. We got the Patriots at the Dolphins. Dolphins are seven and a half point favorites with, you know, they, they're bigger favorites than how many wins they have. Yeah. Charles, you wrote about Drake May this week.

Shout out to you. But what is your one thing that you're checking out in this game? It's Drake May. I know that there's probably a more concerning aspect here where since Tua's gotten back, the Dolphins offense has been pretty good. They were fourth, I think, in the NFL when he's on the field as far as the sector rate. Yeah.

Right. So he's that that matters a lot for them and their chances to get to the playoffs. But, you know, it's still kind of hard for me to get to invest in like a four win team going on the run making the playoffs. But Drake May is is he's one of the stories of the league right now. I think one of the most one of the most interesting things to me is.

There was so much hand-wringing at the start of the season about, oh my God, you can't play him behind this offensive line. He's going to go get himself killed. And he has been such an improvement over Jacoby Brissett since the season started where...

Like they've moved from basically being an apocalyptically bad offense to just like a slightly below average one on a down-for-down basis. I think he's actually producing positive points on offensive dropbacks this year. So...

In every single facet like you look at success rate you look at pressure rate you look at sack percentage It's all gotten so much better with drake may in the lineup and now like you have enough of a sample size to know Oh, like he's was just obviously the best quarterback on the roster and would have given a better chance to win from the start But you know, I don't I don't I don't think two or three games behind jacoby percent actually tank their season You know, they got some bigger problems outside the quarterback but uh

I try not to get too ahead of myself. And I still feel this way about Kayla Williams too, but like it's, it's more pronounced with Drake May right now. Like you are obviously just watching a superstar come into his own. Even over the,

even in like this small sample size of what you've seen from NFL defenses, when you start watching this work under pressure and how he's still trying to create big plays under pressure and still following the play under pressure. Like I think he's already one of the better quarterbacks in the league where you're like, Oh, we're in a bad spot, but we got this guy who's going to read it out and make a big play. And it's not just the under pressure stuff.

it's, you know, clean pocket, just straight drop backs, you know, working through, you know, five step drops and throwing the guys open before they're supposed to be, uh, you know, at their landmarks. He looks really, really good to me. Um, and doesn't feel as sinister as like when the Patriots had Tom Brady and they were just marching down the field. Like I don't, I don't, I don't feel bad for, for rooting for this and wanting to be, to be good because it's a lot of fun. Uh, and he's just a really, really explosive talent that's already coming to his own. Like if I was a,

If I was a Bills fan or a Jets fan or a Dolphins fan, I would just be rooting for the Patriots to miss on as many draft picks as possible over the next few years because they got the quarterback.

Yeah, I mean, they got a ton of cap space this offseason. It's yeah, they get two more pass catchers and offensive line like you can rework that defense, you know, as long as they get back healthy and stuff. Yeah, obviously, I'm a big fan of Drake May. I concur that he looks like a star, just even that first third down conversion he had last week.

against the Rams where it's a four-week blitz, which is a rule breaker against the protection that they had, the six-man protection they had. And he just drifts away from the free runner, hits the crosser. Michael Hoyt, who 97 for the Rams, drops into the hole and he just holds on the ball. What's popped up, goes clear it and then hits him as he's getting hit. It's just like, that's a super,

against the blitz, knowing it's a blitz, not bailing the pocket and running away from where the routes are working. It's just like, he had an answer in his head. It's just get to the answer, hearing him talk about spatial awareness stuff. And it's just really cool. He's got a great mindset. I'm pretty, I'm like, he, his interviews are really cool. Like, and it's not corny, like, which is just a big thing too. Like you can tell his teammates really like him. It's all the stuff. Why, like why I liked him in the draft process so much. It was just, but yeah,

The thing that gets me other than the footwork stuff that everyone just for six months wouldn't shut the FF up about. And as opposed to like appreciating his feel for the pocket and the eyes downfield stuff was, I always thought he was way more mentally ahead than people were making them out to be where, you know,

Usually I would say guys have to sit because they can't handle a playbook. They can't handle a huddle. They're not they don't know shoot even Kate professional cadence or anything like that. And I just kept watching his college film was like, yeah, it's a basic offense, but like, shoot, they're handing them protection checks.

Like you got to read between the lines with what he's doing. So obviously this guy can handle some mental aspect pretty early. And then here we are in the last game. He's using triple cadences from the gun. And so in why that's a big deal is when for a lot of rookies, especially rookie quarterbacks, their heads are swimming with these long play calls. And Alex Van Pelt runs an old school West Coast verbiage. So these are long play calls.

And the cadence is kind of the afterthought. You know, are you on one? Are you on two? Are we doing a hard count to check into something? And so the fact that he's using what I'll call alternate cadences already to get guys to jump off sides and stuff, it's like, oh, man, they're like, it should just keep going and growing and growing. He's going to make mistakes. Like, it's just going to happen. Just circumstances and how he plays.

But man, this is, yeah, like you said, pretty, pretty optimistic and going against the Dolphins defense. It's actually been playing pretty dang good. So, and still have stars at all levels. And, and yeah, so it's a good test for them. Dolphins are clearly the better team. Their offense is starting to roll. So like, yeah, they're going to try and make a push for the playoffs, but really fun test for, for May, the Patriots going on to one of my games, not as sexy.

We had the Bucks at the Giants. Giants are six-point underdogs at home. A lot of home dogs. God. The Bucks. This year.

A lot of quit. Oh my God. So much quit. Really more than ever. It really feels like it, doesn't it? Like we're, it's just guys are just going, why am I hurting my body for this? Daniel Jones. And I understand his situation is different, but like right before we recorded this podcast, Daniel Jones made a statement to the media about how much he enjoyed his time as a giant. I'm like, you're still technically on the team. Like, I don't know. Marcus Mariota just left. Yeah.

Yeah, like, hey, at least you had the wherewithal to just not be around people if you don't feel like being here. Just go home. Just go home. Jones is playing scout team safety today. Deshaun Watson in Houston. Yeah, that one is just like...

I don't know. They've already embarrassed him enough. Right. That was too far. That's too much. Make them the backup and just like, go like, like, Hey, Hey, you're just going to sit back here. Like all the other backups do. Like, I don't know. That's just embarrassing to me. That's like, they're just really just flaunting it out there. You know? Right. Right. Why is he playing safety? I know. Yeah. That's a,

Yeah, I didn't like that part that I know it's just a little minor thing, but that just kind of like an indicator of how they're treating them. And yeah, Jones has not played well. Trust me. It's just, you know, we have to have some professionalism as opposed to just throwing anybody under the bus whenever you can. Brian Dable. All right. But in this game, yeah, we got Tommy DeVito against Todd Bowles.

That's fun. We got... Okay. I don't know how to say this guy's name. Is it Justin Skule? Skule? He's the tackle for the Bucs. S-K-U-L-E. So he's the guy that got... And I want to say Skule because he got absolutely Skule f***ed by Brian Burns. Or not by Brian Burns, by Ian Hutchinson when he had to play right tackle. And remember, Ian Hutchinson just teed off on him. And I think he had like four sacks. This was week two or whatever. He gives up the hot...

School. School? I could pick my kids at school, yeah. Okay, okay, thank you. He allows the highest sack rate in the NFL, according to NextGenStats. Now he's at left tackle, standing in for Tristan Wirfs. And the guy that lines up over there now is Brian Burns. So I'm watching that.

There's fireworks always in every game. That might be some fireworks and not the good sense. So I want to see, you know, how, how Liam Cohen mitigates that the bucks, if they just take care of business, they should have this game. You know, a giant's defense is no joke, but you know, you can get them there. They've been given up when their offense can't get past midfield.

Mike Evans is going to be back out there. He seems like he's practicing again, going as a DB room, then get gas. So yeah, just kind of a morbid curiosity game. Maybe that's a new segment that will drop in here. Morbid curiosity game, the MCG.

Anything to add to this? No. I know. Tommy DeVito and his agent will be out there. I'm so done with Bachelorette. Don't care. Oh, my God. I saw his face again already. It's been like a day. How'd you already make calls about this? Actually, I shouldn't be shocked. Next one, a NFC East classic. This one, they used to say, used to determine who was going to win president back in the day, but that's been blocked. Cowboys.

at washington washington the commanders are 10 and a half point favorites home against the commanders if you told me i mean i know dax hurt but if you told me that before the season i would have laughed so the commanders 10 and a half point favorites double digit favorites against the cowboys what are you checking out in this game charles okay i there was nothing here really um

So I had to do some digging, right? Okay, good. Okay, okay. And I have walked into the smallest sample size, most volatile nonsense to keep an eye on for this game. And we've talked about it a little bit as far as the commander's offense goes, where when...

Especially earlier in the season things were really booming for them a lot of stuff was being done like you know on third down third and long where they get an atomic conversions I that was a lot higher than you would normally see and we can we know that there's a regression in that aspect so over the past two games the Commanders are one for 11 on third and long Between the games against the Steelers and the Eagles. I feel like that checks out if you watch the of those games now

That's obviously volatile because we know it's a two-game sample size. It's 11 plays It's third and long like these plays can flip really any time but I the reason why the reason why I was initially looking at those two weeks was because That's the time frame in which Michael Parsons has been back for the Cowboys And the Cowboys defense in the two weeks of Michael Parsons has been back has been god-awful still and

But they do three things. They now do three things well, right? They're a top five pressure team over the past two weeks, top five sack team over the past two weeks, top five third down team over the last two weeks. And if we're going to cut it down to that third and long sample size, the Cowboys have not given up a third and long since Michael Parsons returned back to the lineup. They're 0-8.

on third down for defense. My Mike Zimmer third down take is still alive? It might be coming back now that he's got a front seven player with a pulse back, you know? But I think the Cowboys, they're at like almost a 50% pressure rate over the past two weeks since Michael Parsons got back. So if you're looking for anything in this game,

Don't watch the Cooper rush stuff. That's poison. But just watch how Michael Parsons is able to come affect the commander's offense because that's like the one thing in the small sample size that he's in back that they've been good at. Just getting after the passer and kind of causing him to have for opposing offensive lines.

Love that, which was supposed to be the strength of this team. Not having a Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. Yeah, that hurts. That really hurts. No, that's great. I love that. For anyone that doesn't remember, one of my predictions before the season was that the Cowboys would have the number one ranked third down defense.

So let's, let's see if that can climb back up for the second half of the year. No, I love that. Yeah. The commander stuff, you know, whether it's Jane dealing with the rib, whether it's cliff regression, whatever you want to call is like, they still, you know, they still have to push the ball. They still have to find ways to, you know, when they get into those situations, attack Pat down the field and everything. This is a great test for it, how they block it up if they have to get in a neutral game script and everything. So,

you know, that's a good, that's a good little thing to look at. Just watch third downs in this game. That's it. We'll just, we'll trim it down for you. Would you say it was like 10 plays? Yeah, there you go. We'll just, we'll just trim it down. One for the commanders, 0 and 8 for the Cowboys. So love it. Love it. And the other side of the ball, Cooper Rush versus the commander's defense. Commander's defense is playing better, but still not great. And yeah, that's just a whatever matchup. C.D. Lamb, maybe Jake, Jake Ferguson against Bobby Wagner. I don't know.

But yeah. All right. We're going to take a break. Then we're going to come back and wrap up the one thing to watch for the rest of the games. The kind of burgers you get today tells you a lot about yourself. You're either someone who settles for sad, same old, same old burgers, or you're at a Carl's Jr. Obsessed with a tangy OG Western bacon cheeseburger. Demanding a house-made guacamole loaded guac bacon.

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We are back. One of my games. This is a Haas fight slop watch combo.

A little two-pack for you guys here. And it's not the one I expected going in, but I actually dive it into it. You know, one side of the ball here is pretty fun. That is the Chiefs at the Panthers. Panthers are 11-point underdogs at home. Home underdogs? Whoa. 11 points? Whoa. 11 points. No, that's crazy.

Yeah, I know. And I originally was going into this like, oh, can this maybe get weird? And I started, you know, kind of picking it. And I had this low key hospital here. Might as well upgrade it. You got the Chiefs run defense, who I think.

Still very good. Statistically, still good. Second in rush success rate allowed to early down running back runs. Early downs are first and second down. Late downs are third and fourth down, just in case anyone had confusion. Lowest explosive run rate allowed to running backs. The Panthers have a top eight run game. Seventh in combined rushing and explosive success rate. I always just have to say that. The Panthers...

According to next gen stats are the only team in the NFL to not allow us not allow a sack in under four seconds this year, which is a pretty remarkable stat. When you think about it, that means just no quick hitters, no one, no one getting them. They're pretty run heavy. You know, they make things safe for Bryce Young. And when Andy Dalton was in there, the chiefs, on the other hand, have recorded the fastest average time to sack in the NFL because they get the most unblocked pressures with all the spags.

funkiness and everything that they do. So this is just pretty fun in the run game. And then pass protection wise, got strength on strength here, which is pretty surprising, which is not what you expect when you're watching Panthers chiefs, but you got two legit units here that are good at the other, the thing that the other team is good at. So actually watching this will be fun. Watching Chuba Hubbard, watching the Jonathan Brooks might be getting in there. Now the rookie that they draft out of Texas, first running back drafted actually, um,

That's going to be fun. I know this Panthers offensive line has been, they invested in it and it's played really well under Joe Gilbert, who has been a long time offensive line coach. Also my freshman year offensive line coach at UCF. And so, yeah, shout out Joe Gilbert, I guess. He's going to be raised after this season, you know? Dude. I mean, yeah. And he was the guy that the Colts had for a little bit to try and help out with Andrew Luck and stuff. So, yeah.

But no, he's making these guys. Ike Ikuonu is playing a lot better. They're getting a little bit of just like an improvement along that line. And it's a legit good unit. The other side of the ball is interesting too. Panthers coming off a bye week.

This is a Travis Kelsey game. I thought it might have been one last week. He didn't really get going. But the Panthers, you can maybe get after them with who they have. Their defense isn't that great. So maybe it's just Travis Kelsey. He gets going. But this other side of the ball, though, just watch the Chiefs defense versus the Panthers offensive line and what they do there. I think it's going to be actually a pretty interesting matchup there that maybe they can –

cover the spread. I'm not calling an upset here, but maybe make it funky and cover the spread here because they can maybe control the game and some of the clock. So nice little strength on strength there. Uncommon one. All right, going on to one of your games. We got AFC South matchup Titans at Texans. Texans eight point favorites at home. Another big spread here. What's the one thing you're watching on this game, Chuck?

I had two things. One, can CJ Stroud just overcome all the slop that this game is going to produce? Because, you know, even the Titans defense, they've gotten got a couple of times this season. But overall, the numbers are still pretty good. I think that they should probably feel good about their defense performance and against an offense that just has been

brutal, honestly, throughout most of the season. They could have some success, but the Texas defense, they should probably just crap on what the Titans have going on. I don't think this is a real offense that can threaten them. I know that the Titans, they've had some good games where they can run the ball effectively, but overall, it's not

really a scary unit. So can CJ Stroud just rise above and just make enough plays where they can have an ugly win? And also, I just want to see how healthy Nico Collins is because last week against the Cowboys didn't

actually look 100%. Like there was a, there was an over route that he caught and you know, if it was week one, he would have pulled away for a touchdown, but he kind of, you see it like it's a little stiff on one leg, he's hopping. Right, right, right. So I, but that's really all I'm looking for because I don't think this game has much else by terms of interest or juice.

Yeah, I'm kind of with you on that. I was kind of even just trying to have a little side note on it, and I was just like, eh, you know, just the Texans got to take care of business. Yeah, you know, Titans' defense is pretty good. Their front's pretty good, which should make it a slog for the Texans. I feel like it's just every Texan discussion's the same. Stroud's got to be a hero. Joe Mixon's got to pop a couple runs to overcome the offensive line, and then does the Texans' pass rush get home? That's really what it is.

Just looked I I was looking at the Titans schedule real quick and They have scored over 20 points two times in season Who's that the one actions, you know the Titans Titans little Titans. Okay. Yeah Yeah They have scored over 20 points two times a season one against the zombie dolphins when Tyler Huntley started a game and then against the Patriots a couple weeks ago Every other game is 17 17 12 10 14. Oh my god. Oh

I know. And that's what Mason Rudolph would do. They're trying to get Calvin Ridley going a little again, but it's just such a boom-bust offense. Levis, complete the grenade or just, like you said, toss it into your own lap. That's kind of how it looks. And I was trying to find the...

I was trying to find a Nico Collins kind of speed. Uh, like whether he, like, yeah, he was running shorter distances per play last week. Um, he, he only, he played a lot fewer snaps. He was on a snap count, but he only traveled 617 yards in comparison, his last healthy week he ran or his total distance traveled was over 1400 yards. Yeah.

So like they were, you know, it's not only that they didn't want him out, like they're using him in a select way when he was out there. It was a very sprint or run happy to get him going and everything. So whether hamstrings suck, man, it's hard. It's hard, especially when you're a quick twitch athlete like that. It's hard to kind of just overcome it and get to 100 percent, especially middle of season going on to the AFC West. We got the Broncos at the Raiders.

Here in Las Vegas, Raiders are six-point underdogs at home. Another big underdog at home. Really, this for me is Brock Bowers versus the Broncos defense, which is that's all you watch the Raiders for right now is Brock Bowers and Max Crosby. That's it. You're just watching those two go. Yeah, does he get the Chretan matchup? What do the Broncos identify as a way to stop him? Did they just let him eat, no one else get going? I'm going to steal another one from next-gen stats here.

Broncos have the highest blitz rate in the NFL and early downs. Some of that's a little fudge. Some of the green docs stuff that they do. The Raiders have the highest unblocked pressure rate in the NFL, meaning they don't pick up blitzes. Well, should be fun.

Yeah, that should be a lot of fun. So if you want to see Gardner Minshew running around a little bit, yeah, check out this game. That's all I got. The Raiders are such a zombie team right now that I'm kind of just like, all right, Brock Bowers. And yeah, that's really all I'm checking out when I'm watching them. So watch the Broncos defense, see what they're up to this week. Going on to your next game.

Cardinals at Seahawks. Seahawks are one point underdogs at home, which actually kind of surprised me as I'm reading that out. What are you watching for in this game, Charles? Well, at first I started looking at this game thinking,

When I first look at it, just like following just the storyline of the Cardinals season. And there's like an inflection point when they lose 42 to 14 to the commanders at home, which feels like, wow, that feels like a total different lifetime compared to where we are now. But if you just take from that point on, so that week four game and you move on from week five till now,

This is like comfortably a top five offense in football. Very, very comfortably a top five offense. They are what? Second in success rate since then. Second in success rate on rush attempts. Dropbacks, they're sixth. Third in explosive play rate. They're first in sack rate. Kyler Murray has only been sacked on 2.9% of his dropbacks since that Commander's game. And they're also fifth in pressure rate. So,

That used to be one of the knocks that you would have on Kyler Murray and some of the quarterbacks that play like him where you're like, oh, man.

Too much pressure. You're just gonna have to accept sacks gonna be a part of this but they're just not really a part of the Carl's offense and like one of I feel like one of the the but things that people have had about Kyler Murray in general over his career has been if You could just get him to play like this, but you get rid of the negative plays like how good does that look? We're seeing it now like they're a top five offense. Um,

My friend Harrison Jr. is coming to life. Why am I forgetting the Titans name? Trey McBride. Trey McBride. Yeah. He's playing well. Dude, Parrish Johnson, the tackle, he's been playing really good football too. Fantastic. Yep. This offense is not...

It's not like just Drew Petson doing a good job, which he is. You also start to realize, oh, wait, no, they have some real deal good players on this offense. And I think one of the interesting things to see if they can get, I know Michael Wilson, he was banged up for part of the season, but if you can just kind of get him back into the offense a little bit and have that as another option, there's still room for them to throw more things at you as the season progresses. So I know the Seahawks defense played well last week,

Overall, though, still hasn't been a great unit. I know they've been a little bit better since Ernest Jones came onto the team and entered the lineup. But when I preview this, it still seems to me like this is an offense, this is a defense, excuse me, that this Cardinals offense should be able to get. So the one thing that I'm still watching for this game is just kind of continued growth of the Cardinals. They had the fourth pick this past year. Things didn't go well for them last year. Even when Kyler Murray came back, it was still kind of,

Yeah, if he but now you're starting to see like the whole vision of the offense come together And I think that you know, they're actually really really exciting to watch once you start putting it together. Yeah, it's good ball That's why I mean you you laughed at me the other day in a group chat, right? We know you like the Cardinals name I feel like everybody's saying that to me right now but

No, you're right on about Kyler though. Like they, it was always great. Last year they beat the Eagles in a big upset and Kyler played well in that game, but it's still like had moments where it's like, Oh, what are you doing here? But they are just, just like how they use Marvin Harrison jr. Early in the season. They're like, no, we're going to make you do the hard stuff. And it's going to, it's going to pay dividends. It's not going to work right now. We're not going to flash fry this. We're not going to microwave it. We're slow cooking this.

And now it's really starting to pick up and like where I feel pretty dang good. You brought up all the top five stats. That's how they look.

running they're one of the most explosive teams running or passing they're one of the best screen teams they're going to protection um trey benson's getting involved with james connor now like they're they're they're a second running back selecting last year's draft like they yeah like you said the vision's kind of really coming alive here and uh kyler's third this is just one number that you can look at for quarterback stats but kyler's third in qbr this year

Only below Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and right above Josh Allen. So there's only four quarterbacks above 70, and those are the four quarterbacks. He's playing really, really good ball. Great call on the commander's game, though, because they were hanging with him in the first half of that game, and then they just kept making mistakes. They had a fourth down. I remember watching this game. They had a fourth down. They're near the red zone, and Kyler takes a sack.

And you, so that's a great, like kind of inflection point moment. It was like, it felt like since that moment, it was like, Hey, you can't do that anymore, but you can't take a second fourth down. You got to give us a chance. And, and so bringing up the sack rate was just like a great way, kind of like matching what exactly has kind of been going on this office. They haven't been shooting themselves in the foot. Even when they did, like they accidentally threw a pick to tear a tart when they played the chargers, tear a tart fumbles it.

And so they get the ball back. Like, you know, so even bad moments have been like ended up okay for them. But yeah, everyone's just playing confident. They're well coached. They don't make a lot of mistakes. The special teams is really good. And then the defense is now, which was embarrassing at the beginning of the year, even though they did cool stuff, they were not good. Now they're 15th in EPA per play. They're 12th in DVOA. So it's, yeah, this is a real team. They're like an actually good team as opposed to maybe a frisky team. So a year ahead of schedule, I would say. Yeah.

I was looking real quick at the QBR for each game for Kyle this season. And the Commander's game is the second low of the season. Randomly, he had a 27.1 QBR against the Bears game. And then I looked at this. I was like, oh, they were just running the ball. Yeah, yeah. They ran the ball three times in that game because they had just given up. So I don't even think that game matters a little much. But every other game, like year above 50, and last week against the Jets or two weeks ago against the Jets,

95, like this is moving back in the right direction for him.

95, you said. That's how that game felt. They couldn't make mistakes. Yeah. They were just, hey, let's try this. Cool, 20 yards. Hey, let's try this. Touchdown. That's fun. So, yeah, that's how they're playing. And Seahawks had their best overall game last week, offense, defense, and everything. So this is a really fun one. And the NFC West is wide open. All these teams have a chance. So that's going to be really cool. All right, getting to the last one, which is one of mine.

And one that is more of a narrative one for me rather than some deep dive stat stuff. And that's the Eagles at the Rams. Saturday night football. The Rams are three point underdogs at home. Weird. Another home dog. But this is going to look at like one matchup thing. It's Ram defense, Rams defense aligned versus Eagles offensive line. You got the young Rams defense. Everyone looks at the pressure rates and goes, oh, they're really good, right?

But, you know, they are good. Some of that scheme stuff and all the movement stuff that they do. Eagles offensive line, you know, one of the strengths in the entire NFL. But narrative-wise, we got Rams offense with Sean McVay against the bogeyman. The bogeyman. We got Vic Fangio in the Eagles defense. This was the beginning of the end of Jared Goff as a Ram. This was the beginning of the end of that first iteration of that Rams offense back in 2018. And

Everything you see the Rams do right now in 2024, their main methods of attack. So we got more two tight ends now. They got a trade for Stafford. They got more gap scheme runs. It's because of Vic Fangio. I forgot about that game. Six years ago now. They beat their ass in that game. Whooped them. It was embarrassing. They couldn't complete a pass. I'm going to call them back. Went crazy that game, too. Mm-hmm.

God, that's a game that just like just was one of those random regular season games. That's like always gonna be burning my brain because it was a Sunday night or Monday night game too, I think. But that is...

People only pay attention to the island games. But really, though, everything that the Rams have shifted and used and now have, they're running more counter stuff now is because that they got all their zone stuff, all their boot stuff, all the stuff, their staples of this offense. Fangio just took it and threw it out and said, hey, what else you got? All right. Do you have a quarterback that can beat us? No. Do you have other runs that you can get to that can beat us? No.

that McVay has had to evolve. And it's just been year by year, adding changes, adding changing personnel. So really, I just want to watch this. Like, I just want to watch this part. I don't know if it's part duh. I think they've matched up maybe once or twice since then. But this really feels like a pristine Eagles defense.

that runs a Fangio defense all the way and still does that 6-1 front that we heard so much about, still does versions of it. They did it last week on Thursday night. 6-1. Oh, man. 6-1. The 6-1 means after the Super Bowl. 6-1, man. But this is Fangio. This is a guy that runs it.

He did it last week against the commanders to take him out of some stuff, a version of it. Now you got the Rams who have new pitches to throw at it. It's a very, a true strength on strength. This Rams offense can cook anybody. It's set Patriots beat writers into a tailspin this week.

You know, this is a very good offense versus a very good defense. Really, I would say two top five units, however you parse it. So, yeah, can't wait. Can't wait to watch that matchup. Last thing I have. I just looked up the Jericho's box score from that game. Oh, yeah. 20 for 44, 180 yards, four touchdowns, three sacks for 25 yards lost and 11.1 QBR for the day.

11.1 QBR. Yeah. 47 dropbacks. Because QBR is like percent of a chance that your team can win, right? Isn't that like how it's done? Yeah. QBR is like if we put this performance on an average NFL team, you would win X percent amount of the time. That's what I thought. So yeah. So yeah, if our quarterback threw for 180 yards on 47 dropbacks and four picks, we'd be lucky to win 10% of the time. You're right. Yeah. That's what...

And that's what that game... I mean, they snuffed him. They just couldn't do anything in that game. So, yeah, I'm just... I'm sure McVay is that... You know, has that in the back of his mind. I mean, he's a guy that seems, you know, to...

with the self-awareness and self-scouting of all that. So I'm just, and like I said, this Eagles defense rocks and, and it's set to the law of strengths and their strengths match the Ram strengths, you know, Cooper to Jean against in the slot against whoever wants to go in the slot, Cooper, you know, Cooper Cooper versus Cooper Cooper cup or Puka Nakua and all that. So yeah, really, really cool matchup. I'm pretty excited to watch. But yeah, that's it for our one things. We're going to get to a mailbag question right now. Remember,

You either can send us a question to our mailbag email at football301mailbag at yahoosports.com, or you can submit a review, five-star review, I might add. It's on Apple Podcasts, and they go to the front of the line. So the one that jumped to the front of the line is from a very, I like this name, Expat Footy. And this is really more for you, Charles. You know, I might add something on here. Is the Georgia, University of Georgia offensive scheme good?

This is a post-Todd Munkin, who's not an offense coordinator with the Ravens. Post-Todd Munkin offense. How do we feel about the Georgia offense, Charles? Well, they went back to Mike Bobo, which is what no one wanted in the first place. I was like, Kirby, you want to look a little further than who's in your contact list or your cell phone to find an offensive coordinator?

coordinator. You only got to be. Right. You got to be and maybe he was even saved on favorites because you already know Mike Bobo for so damn long because of his affiliation with Georgia. But I don't really know if it's poorly schemed as well as much as poorly coached.

Because this offense worked last year. It worked fine last year. Carson Beck looked great. He looked like someone who would be a first-round pick. Even the week one game versus Clemson, they looked fine for the most part, especially in the second half. But I think what the biggest problem with Georgia's offense were, the biggest problem I think that they've run into this year is...

the quarterback doesn't really give them any easy button plays, you know, which is what you really want in college football. Like we can't really run too much option stuff, you know, Beck will, he'll scramble every now and again, but it's not like having a real, you know, that's not a threat under center. Right. So like a lot of your runs or,

you know, you're just the running back's the only threat, you know, on some of these RPOs, you don't really have to defend threat of the quarterback run, which it just compresses the fields for them over and over and over again. But still this offense will

was fine in the same circumstances last year. I think one of the most disappointing things is just how sloppy they are, especially when it comes to blocking assignments. It's not just, you know, picking up blitzes or, you know, figuring out your slide protections. Like also just like versus the run, just trying to distribute who am I blocking on a down and down basis. They're pretty bad at that, which is really surprising for an offensive line that is filled with seniors and like five-star recruits. So I, I,

Beck hasn't played great this year. I still don't think he's quite as bad as like, you know, maybe like the whole season would suggest because even this last week, he played pretty well. Wisconsin would kill for him. They did.

Maybe he could transfer to Wisconsin after this season. Oh, man, actually, yeah. Because that might be better for his draft stock than just declaring. But, yeah, it's just congested. And I think, you know, I know that people, like I've seen some Georgia fans complain like the offense is too, you know, quote unquote pro style. But, you know, what they really mean is I wish our quarterback would run some more. And, you know, it's a little tough when you can't do that.

I love how pro style, even if they're in the gun, 80% of the time, it's like, you just mean you don't like quick game. That's what you're saying. You don't like drop back passing. Um,

No, I kind of as someone that just kind of watches college football nowadays, really through the lens of the draft, which is kind of warped, but it's just kind of how I how I roll these days. Yeah, you kind of nailed it for back has just been below average this year, you know, compared to what I expected, I should say below expectation for you use a next gen stat on them.

I really do think that it's been a guy that I thought would be battling for QB one. And when I did my top 50, he wasn't even close to it. Like I probably had two more quarterbacks in between him and like, you know, the next of quarterbacks. Like I still had two more before I even got to him, which is saying something in this QB class. But yeah, like you said, it's a very traditional attack, even if it's, you know, gone and all that modern stuff, but they just don't,

Like, they just don't have the juice to overcome it. I mean, losing Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkie will do that. You know, that doesn't help. The wider receiver room is bad. Like, I don't...

I don't like to just, like, crap on some of these kids who are still in college. But, dude, Arian Smith, the wide receiver that they have, like, you can tell so obviously when someone is a sprinter playing football instead of, like, someone who's fast that's also a football player. Because, dude, he is flying down the field, and then when it's time to make a play on the ball, it's like, well, I don't know.

I forgot my hands. It's like an infomercial where they fall down the stairs and stuff like that. Dropping screens, fumbling the ball. I'm like,

You're so fast, but you stink. And then Dylan Bell, the other guy. Right. Dylan Bell, the other guy who I think is actually a spectacular football player. Number 86, who plays like running back. His problem is he runs like a 4'6". Kind of. So, you know, you can never, I can't have, you know, peanut butter and jelly at the same time. I got to have one or the other. But they've had enough five-star recruits. They'll fix it at some point.

Right. I know. And Kirby, Kirby won't let this sit for, for too long. That's, that's the thing. Stop hiring your friends though. That's, that's, it's, it's hard. You hired someone you didn't really know.

Oh, especially with Munkin. I can only imagine those two interacting. Munkin's insane. So I can only imagine that. Yeah. I watch more Georgia defense because just the guys that they have. But like, I've always laughed at a fast player that can't catch. Like, I always just am fascinated by that. Like some of the most athletic guys I've been around. It's just like.

They just don't know how to catch. Just like this. Let the ball come into you. It's right there. Just let it go. Let it get. Don't split your hands. Don't do any of that. If anyone watching on YouTube, that's how you're supposed to catch. You web your hand together like that. Let it come into there. But we're closing it out today.

Charles and I, I hinted this at the beginning of the show, said this on Tuesday. We'll be back on Sunday, Sunday afternoon. Instant takeaways from the day games. All these games we just did the one thing on, except for that Eagles-Rams game, we'll be recording during Sunday night football just to get this in everybody's ears before they wrap up the night.

Hear what we got. Maybe you're doing some chores. Maybe you're coming down. Maybe you have to drive from the stadium, something like that. But hopefully we can listen to that or Monday morning when you're going on to work. But it'll be me and Charles starting this Sunday and through the rest of the season. I am Nate Tice. You can find me at Nate underscore Tice. Charles, where can they find you? What have you been working on this week?

Yeah, you can find me on fourverts on Twitter. Haven't been there as much this week. You can find me on Blue Sky too. Just a lot of writing. Wrote about Drake May, wrote about Netflix. Had some fun with the fourverts column this week. And yeah, I'm excited for this Sunday show. I'll be, that's funny, the first episode will be from my parents' basement. So maybe we'll get a couple of dog appearances if they are feeling rambunctious that day. Yeah.

I used to have my mage when I was living in an apartment. That was Robert Mays, my old co-host. I'm sure he hates my cat now because of how many times she'd be like, oh, you're talking? Hi. Hi. Hi. She'd just be meowing throughout the thing. Oh, man. Robert would be like, come on. All right, we got to lock her up. No, that'd be good. And also, outside the Sunday shows that we're going to be popping out there, we're also going to be doing a special Thanksgiving preview show today.

That was just for next week. We'll get to that next week when it comes out, but subscribe to us, follow us, rate us five stars. If not yellows yell at us on YouTube and tell us how much, why you want to give us four stars instead. You know, I'll take that. I'll take a reply. I might ask that, ask a question, how we can improve. You can also watch us on YouTube on the Yahoo sports YouTube channel. Thanks to Brett and stone behind the scenes. Thank you to you, Chuck.

bringing the fastball as always. Hope you guys have a great weekend. We will see you guys on Sunday slash Monday morning. Enjoy your football. Thanks for listening. See you guys next time.

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