Week 10 lookahead: Lions-Texans deep dive, one thing to watch in EVERY game
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On this episode of Football 301, Charles McDonald joins me, as always, to preview Week 10. We break down Texans and Lions as our game of the week, and then we do a little Dirty Dozen. We look at all the other games on the Sunday and Monday night slate. We give one thing that we're checking out, sometimes two things when we can't help ourselves, but that's how we're previewing Week 10. Very fun show, as always. See you guys in a sec. ♪

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Hello and welcome back to Football 301. I'm your host, Nate Tice. We are going to be previewing a week 10 today. One deep dive into a game that we thought

It was meaty. It looked a little different after I parsed it apart. I want to talk to my partner about that one. And then we're going to do one thing to watch in the 12 other games that make up Sunday and Monday night. From Munich to Monday night this weekend. To help me do that, to preview these games in week 10, as always, is my guy, Charles McDonald. Mr. Vertz, how are you doing today, Chuck? I'm fine. You know? I'm fine. I'm fine.

I'm going to get you above a five one time, but it's like, I think we've got an okay. All right. Fine. Yeah. We're going to all those, all those. There was, there was a lot going on this week. I mean, I, I saw Ohio state in the damn college football playoff. If it were happening today, they would have to host a game to go potentially play Boise state.

as a four seed i don't like that i don't i just don't like that you're pretty upset about the ranking stuff yeah but not about who was ranked but about how the rankings like like how it would play out obviously march madison never saw that why why is ohio state potentially like fighting for their lives to go play boise or or byu like what are we doing fix it top four we don't need to do all the conference championship qualifiers and that's it and that's the only thing that happened

this week as far as I know. So college football playoff, get it right. You know, got a lot of work to do in this country. I'll see. I'll see how it ends up. But I'm kind of with you. Kind of with you on that. It should be a receding process. I mean, it's just like every time they do something for that, it's like, OK, but you should be doing this. Yeah. And it's like they just they just can't help themselves. Even when they went to the 14 playoff. It's like, why are you guys? Why are you doing games on New Year's Eve?

Dude, New Year's Day. New Year's Day. Everyone knows this. No one's going to watch shit on New Year's Eve. Oh, man. But look at the TV numbers. I mean, I watch more now, but in my early 20s, I missed almost every single college football playoff game that was played on New Year's Eve. There's no way. I did, too. It changed my viewing process. I know. And now, yeah, well, I have to catch up with that. But what I do know is

is the NFL scheduling. And even with an added slot, which might happen even more, uh, if they go to even more international games, we better get used to that 6 30 AM West coast kickoff. I, I've already, I've, I've said this privately, I think in a group chat and I said, I can already see how the NFL is going to sell it. Oh,

Oh, we got a European league. Guess what? European game or international game every Sunday morning. Hey, TV guys. Hey, TV, we just got a new TV slot that we just built up. Boom. Sell that. There we go. That's how NFL works. I can see already see the path to how they're going to go with it.

This reminds me very randomly, but I've been rewatching Entourage just in the background because it's easy to watch. And I'm on season... What? Okay. It wasn't what I was expecting. I didn't know. Right. I know. So I'm on season seven. I was literally watching this episode last night. I'm on season seven and there's a storyline where Ari Gold is trying to buy an NFL team like along with Jerry Jones or something like that.

And he has someone in his office and he asked this woman in his office, he goes, if you could fix the NFL, what would you do? This was 14 years ago. And she goes, cut the preseason down to two games, 18 games, two bye weeks. I was like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. I was like, we're right there. That's where it got. It's in episode season seven of Entourage where

this lady says, two preseason games, 18-week season, double bye weeks. That's what I would do to fix the NFL, which is, wow. That was pretty shocking to hear, honestly. Man, it's like the Simpsons predicted everything. Entourage predicted everything. Turtle, all that. Oh, man. We'll have an entourage discussion another time, but I actually had an episode come through my mind the other day. I've paid front course seats. Shoot, jump shot off here. It's the Bobcats. That's the one that came to mind.

I'm a big Bobcats. That line always sticks in my brain. All right. But going on to what actually is a game in a 17 game schedule, 18 weeks, though. But we got Sunday night with a really fun one. This is going to be our deep dive breakdown, which might be the segment. We're just going to call it deep dive. I'm going to try and get a little snorkel.

A sound bite there or something nautical. That'll work. We're workshopping here on Football 301. But Sunday Night Football, we have the Lions at the Texans. The Lions are three and a half point favorites on the road at Houston. Charles, when you are watching this game, when the Lions have the ball with their beefy offense, probably either one or two in every single category you look at, going against a feisty Texans defense,

What are you checking out in this game? I think the more I was looking into it, I think the only way the tech and it's weird to say it's about a defense that's put up really, really good numbers. Uh,

this season. But I kind of think the only way that they have a chance to win this game defensively is if they can win the game like between the 20s before you get to the red zone. Because outside, because that's really like the Texas defense big flaw, like the big red alert area for them in this game. I looked it up before we came on and they are 30th in red zone defense in terms of drives, any in a touchdown at about 70%.

of drives that reach the end zone ending at a touchdown, uh, Lions offense is obviously like top 10, top five in that same category because, you know, they, they maul. But when you start looking into just like overall, like you don't split it into anything, uh, this looks like a big on big matchup. If you just go by success rate, uh,

Overall, Lions offense second, Texans defense first, dropbacks, Lions third, Texans defense second, rushing, Lions first, Texans third. So that seems like, you know, maybe kind of forces colliding and you might see a draw. But the one area outside of red zones that I think is concerning for the Texans is they do give up explosive plays, which the Lions also get at.

will pretty much. So if you're in the spot where like you're playing well, you know, maybe you can get them to a couple of second longs, but then they get chunk plays. Next thing you know, you're in the red zone. Like that's where the danger pill is for the Texas. So like down to down, they can probably compete. But if you give up those chunk plays that let them just do what they want to do and put their heads down and just grind you into a pulp,

that seems like that's a spot where this game could get away. Because I know, you know, I feel like we watch this defense and they have good players and they put up good numbers, but it just feels a little... They're gettable. They're gettable. They're still gettable. And I think that the Lions, just like they have with everyone, can really exploit that. That's kind of how I looked at it. It's like, this Texas defense is no joke. Like, that's the thing I want to reiterate. It's a good defense, but it does have holes you can pick at.

And I think some of that is how they play, like as far as just style, third and fourth down, ton of man. They're blitz happy on third and fourth down by design. So that's where some gashes can come in. But it's kind of one of these things, and this is why the Lions are freaking juggernaut this year, is on offense, it's like, all right, we get them to do this. Then they have to, oh, I guess run the ball on us. All right, all right, we're going to sacrifice. We're going to load the box up, and we got them in man coverage. And then there's like another shot play design going to like,

Brock Wright or some like, you know, just like somebody just gashing you down the field. But it is a strength on strength, even without Jameson Williams for the for the Lions. But the thing is that the Texans are built and this is something we always reiterate around their pass rush. And that's what Daniel Hunter, who's second in the NFL this year and pressure rate only behind Miles Garrett, who is my

halfway mid midpoint defense player of the year has the highest pressure rate since 2016. Third highest, but it's been on like Bryce Huff and like Micah Parsons, his rookie year, but doing some good things over there in Cleveland. Will Anderson's eighth and also fourth and stuff, right? Which is zero or zero yard gains or TFLs.

But the thing is, Anderson's hurt right now. He hasn't practiced this week. He has an ankle injury. If he's not playing, then I'm like, oh, what's going to go up in here? Because even when he was playing, you got a great strength on strength. Penny Sewell is playing one of the best offensive linemen in the league right now. Decker is no slouch at left tackle. It was going to be a cool little matchups on those sides. But if Anderson's not in there,

Hunter is a very good player and honestly playing like one of the better edge players in the league right now. But it's still... That's a lot to ask out of just one guy. And on top of it, Lions have a ton of natural answers running the ball. You know, they'll pound it. And also, they shred man coverage. We've talked about this a little bit before, but Goff is second in success rate and second in EPA for dropback against man coverage this year. Only behind Mahomes. And that's the group you want to be in. And it's like...

ridiculous numbers. It's like 0.45 EPA per drop back. Third is 0.24. Like 0.24 is like an MVP caliber season. So basically double that against man coverage. The other thing too, is the Texans love to live in nickel. They don't want to put their linebackers on the field lines. You're going to do that against the lions. That's, that's a little different than going to doing that against the jets. And then the lions who are fine going bully ball. I looked at that.

those stats and trying to parse something there. And I was like, maybe the Texans have something there, but nope. Lions have faced 47 plays this year when they've been in base. Defense has been a nickel first and everything first and success rate, explosive plays, all that stuff. On top of it, David Montgomery makes a lot of people miss a fifth and fourth tackle or missed tackle rate. Texans give up the second most missed tackles or have the second most missed tackles. It's just like a lot of the things were,

The Texans can't, I can't find where they're going to have that advantage. Maybe if they get him in third and long, but that's easier said than done against this Lions team. And even then they're good. The Lions are good in protection and get all those things. So.

They need turnovers. That's it. I think they got to be aggressive. They got to try and just get turnovers. Like I say, you can't go toe to toe with this team right now, especially once we get to the other side ball, but that's how it just looks for me. Cause the lines just have so many natural answers against this defense. And it's not other than their pass rush, which might be hindered without Anderson. I just, I don't know what the angle is for the Texans right now. So that this was our juicy matchup too. And it's like, yeah,

Sure. Then going on the other side, when the Texans offense has the ball against this Lions defense, what are you checking out on that side, Chuck? Is Nico Collins on the field? I don't think he will be. That's the big thing for the Texans. And man, I feel like you said before the show, but we've kind of been on the Texans here a little bit. But...

I mean, this is what it is. And I don't think that you can look at what they've done over the past few weeks and say that right now they're a good football team. And what we were kind of talking about before the season and that we've seen play out is

or not before the season, but earlier in the season when they started getting off, was this team is kind of put together by just a few good players and the rest, especially on offense, and the rest is either falling apart or still trying to come up. And when you lose Neal Collins for a while, you lose Stephon Diggs, you see how thin the margins get for a team like this. But

If Newell Collins is back, I mean, he's been cleared to play, but it seems like it's going to be up to him whether he plays on Sunday. That would be a big boost because he hasn't played since week five. He's still 14th in receiving yards, which is insane. Yeah, he hasn't played in a month. He's still 14th in receiving yards.

Uh, it's fifth in targets per route, 11th in target success rate, fourth in yards per target, seventh EPA, uh, per target, first in yards per route run. He's one of three players over three yards per route run with AJ Brown and Justin Jefferson this year. Still first in first downs per target, first explosive, uh, receptions. Uh,

percentage, and he's still 10th in overall EPA generated on receiving targets this year. So basically, the Texans are going to get one of the three best receivers in the league back this week, potentially, which would help them out immensely because if he's not there, or if he's out there and he's not at 100%,

I don't really see what they can do here because the Lions defense is pretty good now. Like just they've played good football this year. And they also seem like an offense that is like perfectly deconstructed to deconstruct what the Texans have because I

I don't think they'll be able to run the ball. I don't see anyone be on the block. Lee McNeil, Z'Darrius Smith is going to be in town. I think he might play this week. I know Dan Campbell said they gave him the week off of practice and he might play on Sunday. So we'll see what happens there. But if they don't have like the easy button that they've desperately been missing in Nico Collins, I don't really see it for the Texans this week on offense. Yeah, I kind of started this side.

Yeah, we're going to kind of the same thing, but I was, it's all based on like how third manageable can you make things? Like it's how, how,

just a fishing and be on early downs. Because if Joe Mixon's not out there, they're totally screwed, but he is, he will be out there. I did find these running stats. I'll give the running stats in a sec, but I'm with you. That's we're going to see more man coverage in this game than you have than any other game in the NFL. Probably this season, you got the lines run man coverage more than anybody. And the Texans run a ton of man coverage on late downs. It's like, you're going to see a ton, but the difference is lines first off can protect.

When you go against man coverage and you can protect, you just got to pick your best matchup and you got to find it. A lot easier, even if Khalif Raymond's out there, but you got Amon Ron St. Brown, Sam Laporta. You got multiple options that Jared Goff can work through. Jared Goff has also been really good against pressure this year, which is a big difference from his prior years. Then you get to the other side with Stroud, and this is why they built this receiving group at first. Nico Collins, who we think is, I mean, honestly, top five receiver, no matter how you slice it.

Add Stefan Diggs. Add Tank Dell working back from injury. Okay, and then we have Dalton Schultz as our fourth. This is great. And then now it's Dalton Schultz and a hinder Tank Dell. And it's just even looking for angles. Okay, so it's going to be a bunch of man coverage. You know what you're getting against the Lions. Man, man, man, man, man. All right, he's got to win. All right, now he's going against these feisty Lions corners that are going to try and swamp him. And I think Stroud and Dell will get him once or twice.

But there's just other things. It's like, okay, well, the lines aren't great defending the slot. Tank Dell, even though he's smaller, he lines up outside. So it's not like a quote-unquote natural answer. It's not something we already do. It's going to be a manufactured thing that they would have to get to. So that's where I'm always just like, oh, grasp my straws. Like, where they really need Nico Collins out there because that gives them the natural answers to beat it. Okay, you got all these feisty corners. We're going to find some matchup that can win here. But it's really just...

Stroud has been good against man coverage, but he's super aggressive against it. Um, like he's middling success rate, but he's like a fifth total, um, in EPA generated, which is he goes for gashes. He's like, you're a run man coverage. I'm not scrambling. I'm going to gas you down the field helps when you have Nico Collins to do that, but maybe tank Dell can maybe get one or two, but that that's what it is. They have, he has to play hero ball.

It's Stroud hero ball against a frisky lines defense. That's now third and DVO way, by the way, because that's just what they're doing to teams. So it's get the third manageable and gash them. Like, so both sides of the ball for me, for the Texans, it's like, it's all about big place. Cause I just don't, you can't stand in the middle of the ring against this team and go toe to toe with them. So you just got to pick and choose your shot spots and take your shot plays on both sides. Came across a Joe Mixon stat. I should say came across a,

pulled out a thread of Joe Mixon stats. This is just more like talking about the Texans run game. Kenyon Green might be out, which might be actually a boost for the Texas offensive line. I'm dead serious. But you were also talking about like this team is built on stars and they need their stars to play like stars. Well, when one of your stars, Laramie Tunsell, is playing like an average player, that

That hinders you too, because you need him to be exceptional. And he hasn't been at all this year. But anyways, that Joe makes a stat. Basically the, the Texans with Joe Maxon are like a top six run game, believe it or not without them, their bottom two. It's like, it's when only above the Raiders who have like a historically bad run game this year. So this is just the stat, but yeah,

With Joe Mixon, they are sixth in EPA per rush, seventh in explosive rush rate. Without Joe Mixon, they're 31st in EPA per rush, 30th in explosive rush rate. So need a little Joe Mixon explosive plays here. But that's really what this Texans offense has to do or has to be. Yeah, I remember some people who were pointing and laughing at them for trading a seventh round pick for Joe Mixon.

There's a lot of run back takes that you probably want back. The North doesn't forget a seventh round pick. Let's stop concerned showing here. People.

Or, you know, giving Chuba Hubbard a contract and people bring it up. Oh, why they take Jonathan Brooks? That doesn't matter. Like they need players. They just need tangible, good players and players that are positive. What the hell else are they going to do with that money? Who else are they going to pay? Who else are you going to pay? So like, oh yeah, people are bringing their hands about, oh, he's top 10 on running back pay Chuba Hubbard, I should say. And he's getting paid the same amount as Alan Lazard. It's like, and we're upset

about what he's going to pay the same as like a slot receiver. Like, come on guys. Yeah. I looked it up two years from now. The Panthers have almost $200 million in cap space. You literally just have to spend it on something. This was the bears last year when they traded for Montez sweat. I don't want to give up a second rounder. You have no players. Yeah.

You need to pay people and you need players that actually move the needle. Like, like picks can become anything. It, we always say picks are coin flips or first rounders or coin flips or early picture coin flush, but not until we trade them. And then we go, well,

It could be, you know, the lottery there. It could be. It's a guaranteed thing, right? So, yeah. Sorry, a little side rant there. Like I said before, Lions are three-and-a-half-point favorites on the road. What is your prediction for this game, Charles? I think I know where you're leaning. Lions big. I'm not going to. They look like the best overall team in the league by far to me right now. So, I'm not going to bet against them. And I think this matchup is kind of like another potential blowout for them just with how things line up.

There's no close lines win. You know what I mean? It's either a Lions blowout or a Texans sneak by. They get lucky and they force turnovers and get some big plays. But I'm with you. I think it's the Lions by a touchdown. But I...

I was trying to really come up with a game plan for the Texans because I feel like we keep doing this whenever we preview them. But it's really like CJ Stroud has to be a hero. And we saw him scrambling a little bit against the Jets, which is really encouraging. And that's something that he'll probably have to do in this game too. But it's going to come down to him making decisions.

five huge haymaker throws, not even one or two, five, six, because that's, you don't, this Lions team will just bleed you out if you just give them a chance. If you have any wounds, they're going to get you. So I'm with you. It is going to be a fun game. There are, there's still some good players, even though we just kind of poo-pooed on it a little bit, but we're going to take a quick break and then we are going to give one thing for the other dozen games that are happening this weekend.

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We are back. We are going to do a dirty dozen here. That's what I'm calling it. Preliminary. Preliminary name for this. We're going to go one by one. We split up who is kind of taking the primary breakdown for this game, but we're just going to give you one thing to check out. One thing we're keeping an eye on. A stat, a player, a factoid, an entourage quote, something of that sort to get through these games. We're going to start. This is a Charles game. We have the Giants-Royals.

It's not at the Panthers. Giants, Panthers in Munich, Germany. Panthers are six and a half point underdogs to the Giants. Crazy that the Giants are almost a touchdown favorite on anybody, but they are. We are also saying you wanted to nominate this as your what? I think this might be a double nominee game for you. Yeah, it's Haas fight and slop watch. Yes. And you know, I used to be someone that graphics just going to do like both at the same time.

It's funny. I used to be someone who'd be like, when I would see this on the schedule, I'd be like, man, I'm not getting up for that game. Like, forget that. But yeah, I mean, I'm 30. I'll be up anyways, you know? So I'm, you know, I can't sleep until 10 o'clock anymore. My body just, it doesn't work that way. So I will be up watching the slop watch house fight in Germany between two of the unequivocally worst teams in the NFL. And as far as the Panthers go, one of the worst teams I've ever seen in my entire life.

But there is one specific area, and I mean one,

that you should pay attention to in this game if you're going to get up and watch it. And that is specifically the Giants' offensive line versus the Giants' defensive line. And I feel like I could be misremembering, but I feel like we've used Giants' defensive line as Hoss fight a couple times this season. Probably. At least once. Dude, Dexter Lawrence is on an absolute warpath. And now you have...

a good spot for Brian Burns where he's like the clear second best player in a front seven, which I think has helped him get off to a good start this season. And then, you know, some rotation guys that they have, some aren't playing that well, but some, you know, are still giving them a chance to get off the field. So I think the Giants side of this is obvious when you just look at the star power that they've accumulated this offseason. But on the flip side for the Panthers,

Start digging into some of the Panthers' offensive line numbers. They're really not that bad. It's like the only piece of the team that is working, and it's gotten Chuba Hubbard to have a breakout season and help them have at least one good thing that they can feel about moving forward. Hey, we can run the ball. But Panthers' offensive line,

Third in the rate of runs that go for zero or negative yards, the Giants defense is 10th. Panthers offense also randomly fifth in pressure rate, which I'm sure a lot has to do with Andy Dalton being back there and having a veteran quarterback get the ball out.

And the Giants defense is 11th in pressure rate. So the Panthers guards that they signed, Damian Lewis and Robert Hunt, I think they're both having really good seasons. Iki Okonu with the left tackle who was just abysmal last year is like, you know, startable this year. Not a bust anymore. Not a bust. Started as a bust, worked into a pretty good his rookie year, went back to a bust. And then now we're back to like playable. Yeah. Yeah. And then the one guy who was kind of interesting, he just started his first game.

for them this week is uh kate mays who kind of had a tag on going back to when he was a draft player and this is only because of my bulldogs fandom because i remember he was like a five star coming out of high school he was down between georgia and tennessee and then he went to tennessee and he started like damn near four years for them at tennessee as a former five star player and then he ended up in like the fifth of the sixth round but he got his first start um

yes, this past week. I think sometimes you can see guys like that where they were highly recruited out of high school, didn't quite work out in college, but they get a chance to kind of revamp in the pros. I want to see if that can be kind of like the third guy for the interior group that just kind of sets them off for the rest of the season. And that's all I have to say about the Panthers. Rest of the team, really bad. Really, really, really bad. Yeah, I watched some Panthers. I want to just kind of see what all the brouhaha was about.

Their interior line is good. I enjoyed it. Their run game is very good, actually, I would say. They're like a top 10 run game right now. It's not just stats, but eye test too. It's all sound stuff. That's why Chuba Hubbard got paid. No, but the Coker, though, the...

new fantasy favorite from everyone actually pretty good actually really enjoyed him so that's another guy if you want to check out undrafted free agent for the panthers i'll just remember by the way that's what you said yeah i keep wanting to say larry coker but it's it's jalen it's jalen coker that's something different right that's yeah that's a that's a long time ago uh but no uh don't check him out too

from Holy Cross, but interesting player there. And then seeing another Bryce Young start, all that stuff. Giants defense is no joke, though. I'm with you. Can't tackle on third down for some reason. That's just the funniest defense. They can't do some...

If they just tackle the Commanders a couple times on third down, both of those games are completely different. But that's just kind of how it goes when you're kind of a team like the Giants, who are my prediction to be the number one pick. This might be a number one pick poll a little bit. This might just launch the teams, but we'll see. We'll see which one goes down. I didn't expect myself to be Googling, is Larry Coker still alive today? Is he? He is. He is still alive. 76 years old. I thought he'd be like 90. How old is he? 76. 76.

That's actually younger than I thought. Dude, I thought he'd be like 90 years old. I mean, he was coaching Miami 20-something years ago. Wow, he was in his 50s then? Oh, my God. I thought he was like late 60s when he got that job. Dude, right? Yeah. Man, just one of those guys that's always looked old. You know, just kind of one of those kind of people. That's kind of how it goes. It's like Hank in Breaking Bad. All right, going on.

That Hector's looked old for he's in like Starship Troopers and he looks exactly the same. Yeah. Like 15, 20 years ago, 98 or something. All right. Going on to the next game. This is a rookie quarterback battle. This is the Patriots at the Bears at Soldier Field. Bears are six and a half point favorites. This is one of my games. First off, rookie quarterbacks. I know we said one thing that should be the only thing, but really, I want to.

Focus on one particular player for the Bears. Bears are facing a ton of injuries right now, especially on their offensive line. Jaquan Brisker has been dealing with a concussion. Braxton Jones has hurt their left tackle. Darnell Wright has a banged up knee. Those guys all did not participate in practice. A player that was a limited participant was their slot, Kyler Gordon.

who is a very good player, very good in the slot, did not play last week against the Cardinals, and he felt it. And there are some great on-off stats with Kyler Gordon. So for number six, for the Bears, okay, here we go. I know everyone loves on-off stats. He leads the NFL in run stuffs, which is gains of zero yards or negative yards. But with Gordon,

So the, he was only, they could match base and nickel. So he's only out there when they're in nickel with five defense backs. So when Gordon is out there, the bears are first in EPA per play by a long shot 0.22 EPA per play. They are seventh and yards per play allowed. They are tied for fourth and success, a success rate and explosive play combined sex rate. They're tied for fourth and that they're first easily an EPA per drop back and

Just all great stats without Kyler Gordon when he's been banged up, hurt. So when the Bears are in nickel without Kyler Gordon, they're 29th in combined success rate and explosive play rate. They give up 20% explosive run rate.

on a decent clip. I would say the sample size is like 30-something runs. So 105 runs is an explosive run. Easily dead last. Double the league average out of teams that are nickel. They're 23rd in EPA per play allowed. They are 30th in yards per play allowed. So they turn from a...

I mean, shoot, if you just look at EPA per play, the best defense out of nickel to a bottom 10 defense when the Kyler Gordon is not playing. So he has to play for them is what I'm getting at. Otherwise, this Bears defense, which is supposed to be what they should be relying on right now, it's supposed to be the steadying force of this team. It'll feel like it did last week against the Cardinals, but

Yeah, it's a, this is a, hopefully a mouthwash game for the bears or a Patriots team. Kind of like capitalizing on some good vibes, even if they lost last week against the Titans, but you got two rookie quarterbacks discussions about them right now are pretty crazy, which I shouldn't be shocked by, but they, they still are on Twitter.

I know, right? They're both very good guys. And these two and Daniels are doing some good stuff and it's pretty cool. But yeah, it's going to come down to Patriots get explosive plays is Calagoran on the field. Bears will allow explosive plays. Patriots haven't really gotten them, but Drake May is going to try. So it's going to come down to that side of the ball, which I'm pretty excited to watch. I have nothing to say about the Bears. Like when they gave up that.

before halftime last week, I cut that game off immediately. Embarrassing. I don't like to be like a try-hard guy because I'm not really my own personal life. No, you're not. But when I...

And I do when I when I saw that play, that was one of the most disgusting things I've ever seen. How are you giving up? What it was like 30, 19 or something like that. 50 yard line going into halftime. That that's that's a surrender draw. They're just trying to just get burning third down just to get to the half. And you let him score like a 50 yard touchdown. No untouched.

Get out of here. Get the hell out of here. Get DJ Moore walking off the field. If you want to listen to a good rant from someone who knows DJ Moore, listen to the episode I did with Joe McCoy this week. He kind of got on his ass a little bit saying that that's because he because Gerald was in Carolina for DJ's rookie year. And he was like, bro, we did not teach you.

to act like you're doing now so until they can show a little better effort i think that was worse than like what the jaguars doing earlier in the season like you are literally walking off the field in the middle of the play you're giving a 50 yard touchdowns on third and 19 going to the half that's embarrassing there's still eight more games to go get it together chicago i've already had enough bears rants already gave a scorpion and a frog story about shane waldron but um this

The stark contrast between those two teams, how well coached the Cardinals are compared to the Bears. It was just stunning. Like actually stunning to watch all three phases. And that just stood out to me. Bears should be having such good vibes right now. And they just feel amazing.

And they just feel awful. Their defense is still pretty good. They gave up a Hail Mary. They gave up the run before the half. They're benching Stevenson. Like, just, oh, my God. Let's get out of your own way, please. But we'll see if some chemistry can happen with Caleb Williams and DJ Moore, because that's a thing, too.

going on there. So good times for the Bears. Maybe we'll see some Drake May fireworks as well. But going on to the next game, a game near and dear to your heart. This is one of yours. Of course it is because it's one of the best rivalries in the NFL. A very underrated one. That is the Falcons at the Saints at the Superdome. Saints are three and a half point underdogs at home after just firing their head coach, Dennis Allen.

What's the one thing you're watching this game, Charles? I'm actually really curious where you're going with this one. You know what I'm here for? I'm here to watch Kirk Cousins send the word of God into the Saints franchise. That's the only thing the Saints have left this season. To pray. Baptists versus Catholics. To pray and hope for retribution for their sins against NFL cap space. For those who haven't seen...

Obviously, they traded Marshawn Lattimore this week, who, when you start digging into the numbers, still very, very good cornerback when he's on the field and helping out the team. That added a $31 million dead cap charge to their 2025 cap, and they're already $77 million over the projected cap space for next year. So have fun with that. What I will have for the Saints is some encouraging words from the Pope.

who has been tweeting, you know, if you're on Twitter, the hashtags for each NFL team sometimes will pop up with the logo for that team. And,

For some reason, whoever is tweeting from the Pope's English account has been hashtagging Saints and the little Saints logo will pop up. And all three of these tweets that have come out recently from the Pope's account that have the Saints hashtag and the little logo, they all apply to what is going on with that wretched, horrific franchise right now. Right. And I'll read them in the order that they came out. First, this one was a little bit.

Not true. This is from Pope Francis. The hashtag saints are formed by the Beatitudes, poor, meek, merciful, hungering and thirsty for justice. That's not true. Seeking peace. They are, quote, filled with God and incapable of remaining indifferent to the needs of their neighborhood, their neighbor, which is this case, the Atlanta Falcons.

They bear witness to the path of life that we too can trod. In the name of Kirk Cousins, we say amen. The hashtag saints are precious pearls. That's not true either. And are always living and relevant because they provide a fascinating commentary on the gospel. Their lives are an illustration of the good news that Jesus brought to humanity. Kirk Cousins.

God is our father who loves everyone with boundless love by going to the bottom of division two and seven, losing seven straight games and getting your head coach fired on the hands of Bryce Young last Sunday. And the last one that he posted, which may be a direct shot to Dennis Allen. And this one feels like a bit from whoever's tweeting from his account. We cannot become hashtag saints with a frown. We must have joyful hearts that can remain open to hope.

That's all you have right now, Saints. You have hope for maybe 2027 when your cap space finally clears up and your roster is filled with UDFAs who haven't played a game in three years. That's when you can have hope again. But for now, your ass is mine. And we are going to win by 40 on Sunday. I feel like I have to take communion now. I didn't know that.

A little sip of wine. Have some blood of Christ. Real wine. Not the juice they give the kids. No, no. The real wine. The other real stuff. Wipe it too. Oh, man. In terms of the actual game, what's there to say? Like, this team's cooked. Alvin Kamara is out there running for his damn life and everyone else is hurt. We're not playing well. Lave's brother tweeting. Lave's out.

No, it's rough. Offensive line is woeful. Panthers are moving the ball on you. You just traded one of your best defenders to the Commanders. Yeah, it's not great in Saints land right now. The...

Man, yeah, you're right. I have nothing else to say over here because that's all it is. Thank you for reading those Saint tweets. That was great. All right, moving on to the next game. One of these teams is pretty sad. That's the Colts who are hosting the Bills. The Bills are four-point favorites at Indianapolis. So I was all excited here. Oh, four points. Right? They say home field is not as crazy now. They say it's only a point and a half. So that's really five and a half point favorites. Yeah.

So if I, I was really excited and I was like, I'm going to look up Josh Allen versus Gus Bradley stats. And I was just like, I clicked through true media, putting the filters, got it all gone. They've only faced each other twice.

in his career. And I was right. That's exactly my reaction. I was like, you guys haven't played the Colts when he's there. They have it. It's like a weird anomaly with it all. There's a gap there. So he faced him twice. One of them was his first ever start when Gus Bradley was the defense coordinator for the Chargers. And Josh Allen was just starting and he was just a

complete wild horse playing quarterback um and then their second start they play in 2020 bills popped off with some some good runs to running backs alan was like kind of more efficient than anything all right well there goes that factoid i was like i was really excited i thought i had something to parse there all right so what are the colts run it's got bradley legion of boom ton of cover three fourth highest in the nfl and cover three right josh allen against single high this year

second in EPA for dropback, take out scrambles. He's first and he is in his own zip code on those plays. 0.26 EPA for dropback. Like I said before, anything over 0.2 is like MVP caliber, which Josh Allen is this year. If

A guy in Baltimore wasn't playing right now. But the league average on those is negative 0.06. And he's at 0.26. That is absurd. He is outstanding against single high coverage. But then, okay, what else do the Colts run this year? They're running actually a lot of cover two. All right. All right. They're sixth in cover two rate.

Clickety-click-click-click. How's Josh Allen against Cover 2 this year? Second in EPA for dropback. He's 20 of 25 this year against Cover 2 for 229 yards. Extremely efficient. He's pushing the ball a decent amount. I think his average area yards is about 10 yards on those as well. It's not just dinking ducks. And also the Bills run game.

They pound the fricking rock. If you run too high, ask the Seahawks, ask the dolphins, ask any of these teams that want to sit, sit in too high against them while they get in with big bodies. Cause everyone's so scared of Josh Allen. They're going to shred you.

That's just what they've done. They've proven that they can do it. They have a couple of real good runs, zone run, duo run, and then a couple of change-ups off of that that they can really get to. So long story short, I think the Bills have some really good answers, and that's number 17 and a good run game against what's been kind of an iffy Colts defense. Improving, but iffy. They just have a lot of natural answers to it. So yeah, that's my one thing is watch Josh Allen's shred.

Cover three because he knows it's going to be covered through every snap.

But yeah, that's all I got to say about that. All right, so moving on. Let's say let's hit Joe Flacco on the other side of the ball. Well, that's the thing. It's like you just take out my exciting stuff that I want to talk about the other side of the ball. So that's what you get. I want to talk more about the Bills defense in the future, but now is not the time. Now is not the time. So we're going to go to a lot of cover to you, at least. We're going to one of your games, I believe, which is the 49ers at the Bucs. The Bucs are 6.2.

at home. What is your one thing for this game, Charles? It feels a little high to me. 6.0 underdogs at home. Because... Maybe not scared of K-Dot and Sterling Shepard. Yeah. And I understand. But this game has shootout potential to me. Okay.

because a little bit first off the bucks defense this is the easy part bucks defense is just horrendous like they're so bad right now and i think it seems like chris mcavery may make his debut this week yeah um which would be a huge boost just to even get him out there for a little bit even if it's in you know limited snaps just to have his present back on the field uh but even without him bucks defense is gettable by almost every team in the league at this point um

On the flip side, though, Bucs offense, even without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, they're still humming. Oh, yeah. Matt was going gaga about him earlier this week. Liam Cohn is his guy. This year's been interesting because

Baker's been neutered to a degree. Like, his air yards per attempt. I think over the past three weeks since Godwin got hurt and Mike Evans has been out, I think he's down to under three yards per attempt, or at least he certainly was in that Chiefs game on Sunday night. But they found the recipe for being able to move the ball. I think one of the most impressive things that you can say about Liam Cohen right now is, yeah, you lose...

two of the best receivers in the league, like, just objectively. And then you figure out how to replace that production on the fly, like, immediately. And they did it

against a good defense in Kansas City on Sunday, or excuse me, on Monday, on the road, and they took it to overtime. If you're in overtime, you still have a chance to win that game, which I think is really impressive. So Bucs off in the blind, playing great football. They found the running back rotation that works for them. They figured out how to call plays for Baker, and against a 49ers defense that's still just kind of like, fine, okay. They can still have a big day moving the ball. So I think that...

Six point underdogs feels a bit much to me only because I feel like they'll be able to score. And we just kind of keep getting data points that Liam Cohen really might be the real deal in terms of offensive play call as an organization goes.

Yeah. The box whole line has been, I mean, especially with Barton out there, it's been good. Like, like you just said, objectively good receivers, objectively good. And yeah, I've been really enjoying watching the box. It's not even with the air yard stuff, like you just mentioned, it's so many receiver screens, but they're effective. And that's what Matt and I kind of talked about the other day. It's like,

It's like the sign of a good offense or a healthy ecosystem is like, how effective are your receiver screens? It's like, if they're bad, it's a bad offense. If they're good, it's a good offense. And like, even without Godwin, who's phenomenal on them, they have figured out ways to get it. Kate Ottens, one of those guys has kind of replaced some of those touches. But that's the thing. It's like next man up. All right. And it's not just like, oh, we're going to just run the same scheme. Like,

Sterling Shepard do the Mike Evans stuff. They're not, there's none of that. It's like, no, okay. Evans is going to be good vertical and doing that. Sterling Shepard's best on like the outbreakers and everything, which has become like a running joke, but it's actually a real thing is Baker to Sterling Shepard out routes is like automatic. So I, yeah, I I'm, I'm with you on the Liam Cohen stuff. And then,

Foreign areas offense. They just always find a way. And Shanahan's a bye week now. So I'm kind of with you that there's some shootout potential here. Even if I, you know, I think the foreign areas are going to win this. I think it's a little bit more interesting than first blush. I think it was a good way to put it. Vita VEA against a,

finessey 49ers interior is always, is also fun, but that they'll just make them run side to side. Right. Like Shanahan knows what he's doing. He's not going to be like, Oh, I don't know how to deal with this guy. He's like, all right, just run, run outside this way, run outside this way, counter, get you going every which way, except right at you. One or two places. He's going to get on you and you just keep, keep him running. That's it. He's going to push back your center once or twice a bit. Keep moving. Just keep moving. Keep him moving. I should say, uh, going to, uh,

An AFC West tilt that's actually a little more interesting. I don't know. Broncos kind of like I was hyping up their defense so much and they just took it in the chin last week. But Broncos are at the Chiefs. Chiefs are seven and a half point favorites, which again feels a little tiny high, even if they are probably better.

either the best or the second best team to me along with the lions. My one thing I'm watching is spags versus a rookie quarterback. Always going to be interesting. Spags is blitz rate jumps up like significantly when you face as a rookie quarterback. I actually looked through his true media history. It's great when you can look at the coaches, all that hit other than Justin Herbert shredding them twice in 2020 when chiefs defense was still woeful and herbo was having his amazing rookie year and

They take it to rookies. This is just kind of what they do. And that's what Spagas wants to do. But

But Broncos run game is pretty dang good. And it's really coming along. It's very feeling very Sean Petney, very at you fullbacks. A lot of big bodies out there. Javante Williams just going down your throat. This Chiefs run defense is so much different than previous SPACs run defenses, which is the way you get after them. They don't let up any explosive plays. Their second explosive runs allowed. They have the best run defense in terms of success rate against running back runs in the entire NFL.

Um, they have a 28% rushing success rate allowed. So now for context, that Raiders run game that we just cracked a joke about being historically low, they're at 28%, 27.9%. So the chiefs run defense against running back runs is turns into every other run game to historically bad run games. That that's for a defense. That's so crazy. I'm passing downs or really all downs. The fact that they can hold up against the run, let no big place, uh,

All right. So now we have to get big plays through the air. Okay. Now we have to have, ask our offensive line and our rookie quarterback or any quarterback to figure out what the hell Spags is doing to us. That's, it's just a hard bet to make over and over and over, especially with this as good as Sean Payton is against that stuff. It's just not the personnel for it. One thing that they do have though, one advantage. And this is one thing I'm looking at after all that setup.

QB runs. This might be a Bo, don't call me Taysom Hill, Knicks game as far as running here. They're bottom eight against QB runs. So I think, you know, get some read element in there and get him going. Get Chris Jones. Think he's going to nail Javante Williams when he's on the outside. There's Bo Knicks running it. They're leaning more into that. But that's kind of just want to want to check out the Broncos game.

They're kind of iffy passing the ball, but they do have some elements of their offense that can attack this defense. But what they lean into is going to be interesting because it's going to be tough. Pretty tough going against this defense right now. I didn't even mention the other side of the ball, which actually is pretty cool. It's actually a kind of low-key Haas fight. It's not low-key. It is a Haas fight with a Chiefs offensive line. They're a brutally efficient attack going against this Broncos defense. DeAndre Hopkins against Patrick Sertan. Riley Moss against...

The corpse of Xavier Worthy. Xavier Worthy? That seems like a dub for Riley already. Yeah, it's kind of playing out how I expected it. But that's why it's kind of not even fun to talk about. But this is another, their defense too. The Broncos defense doesn't give up explosive plays. Chiefs are fine with that. They're built on efficiency. So that's kind of a fun styles make fights type of game too. Yeah.

Really? I think that one's going to get a TV for me. Yeah. That'll get a prime TV, even if the spread is pretty big on that one. Dude, the Chiefs-Bucks game was so funny because even as it's going on,

You know, people are like, oh my God, like the average is 40 yards of play. They're just slotted down the field. But you start looking up, they're just like still in like 90th percentile success rate. They've scored 30 points by the end of the game. Their average is like points per drive wise, basically like elite offense stuff. But I think it's still, people still can't adjust. They're just choo, choo, choo, choo, choo. Oh, we're in the red zone. Touchdown.

It's by design. They want everything to be third and three, and then they're going to get four or five. It's Seth Galina, his joke that our buddy Seth, it's third and six, they get seven yards. It's second and nine, they get 10 yards. It's like they always get one more.

That works really, really well. They have a quarterback that can open it up whenever he wants. They don't like, if you don't have to do the hard stuff, you don't need to do the hard stuff. So if you're going to get five yards of pop, I mean, get it. Like, I think they're averaging like six years to go on third down one of the lowest in the league. Like, yeah, this is, this is by design. It's working. Uh, now they got Deandre Hopkins. Way to go guys. Yeah.

Yeah, he does. That, that thrown catch was so cool. Yeah. Just totally ad-libbing two good players ad-libbing. That's always the best, but yeah, I don't know. I'm excited to watch this one, but we're going to take a quick break and then we're going to come back with the rest of our one things for the rest of the games.

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We are back with the rest of our one thing in our dirty dozen. We have Titans at Chargers. Chargers are seven and a half point favorites in L.A.,

This is one of your games, Charles. What do you got? When we were growing up, and for younger people who don't know, there was this website called LiveLeak where you could just see some of the most heinous repulsive videos on the internet in terms of just like, you know, stuff that no one should ever be laying their eyes on. And I...

I think if LiveLeak was still a website today, you would probably find Chargers defense versus Titans offense, all 22 uploaded on there somewhere in the archives. This is snuff film territory. Like, I don't see... How are they going to move the ball against a defense that's playing this well right now? And...

I don't think the Chargers have had the toughest schedule of offenses that they've played against so far, which plays into some of the rankings that give them top two efficiency stats in what's supposed to be a rebuilding year. But it's not like the Titans offense is any juice right now. What are they supposed to do? I'm not scared of damn Mason Rudolph. And this is the... And what's interesting, I think, about the Chargers is not even this game, but this is kind of like one of the last games that they'll have...

you know, over the next damn near month and a half where they can just absolutely take it to a garbage offense before we actually figure out what they're made of because they play the Titans this week. After that, their next five are Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, Bucs before they actually

before they start getting to the final course of the season. So we'll find out what they're really made of after this game. But this game, I would not watch this game. I would not put this on until it's like fourth quarter and Scott Hansen's like, hey, this game's been garbage for 55 minutes, but it might be 10-10 in the fourth quarter and you should put it on. But outside of that, I don't really see what chance the Titans have to move the ball against how the Chargers are playing right now. I'm definitely leaning under. Yeah.

If I were to wager on this game. Yeah. It's a, we give a shout out. Mac gave a shout out to the Chargers defense earlier this week. And I actually studied them a little bit. Cause I'm just like, all right, what's going on here. And, and some of them, some of it is, yeah, just opponents face, but it's just like a lot of vets and it's going like, oh yeah, Khalil Mac. Oh yeah. You're really, oh, tear tart. Oh,

Oh, Puna Ford. Yeah, yeah. You're pretty dang good. I forgot about you. Like just all these guys. I'm like, oh, they're playing well. And when you have, I mean, but there's young guys too, but when they get pointed in the right direction and there is zero fat with the game plan, the game plan is just hyper specific. Like Jesse mentor is doing. This is what it looks like. Like, again, this is, yes, you play a bad schedule or a weaker schedule, but

make it look like a weaker schedule. That is just always what I get to about this. It's like, yeah, they play nobody. It's like, but they made them look like nobody. And that's what you're supposed to do. There's so many times where we go like, oh, they play a rookie quarterback and rookie quarterback goes off. And you're like, well, yeah, good, actual good defenses or actual good offenses wouldn't let that happen. But even, even some young guys there, Dan Henley, Diane Henley, who is a, yeah, that, that he's really stood out to me. I liked him as a prospect. He was like a converted receiver, um,

Justice Muscater, our other friend, he loved him too. But he bounced around a couple of schools and like, yeah, it was more of an athlete, but he's really like looking more polished and really just doing nice things against the pass, against the pass and the run. So I just want to give him a shout out to Lee.

Tupac Pulaloto? Tuli Tulapulaloto? God, I should nail that one. Who had a nice rookie year is, again, having a nice solid year contributing there, but just a lot of guys playing real well, real good football, really good schemes and stuff, and they're going against a not explosive, not a very good Titans offense. Some run game stuff with Tony Pollard, but like

You know, and some Calvin Ridley shot plays. And that's all you're looking at. So, yeah, yeah, I'm with you on this one. It could be ugly. Maybe an Alt 22 watch a couple days later. But that's all I got for it. Oh, going to this one, which is one of mine. Feels very fitting, actually, considering the teams. Yeah, it's kind of a Mike Tice bowl. We got the Vikings at the Jaguars. Jaguars are plus seven because...

Trevor Lawrence looks like he might be shutting it down for the year. At the very least, maybe missing this game. Don't blame him if he wants to shut it down because this franchise is a joke right now. Doug Peterson is still a hater.

and if my head coach hated me that much and wants to talk about me every time i'm hurt i would shut it down too so here's matt jones for you buddy yeah have fun go have fun he rolls his mom's house every tuesday after practice he weighs 240 pounds congrats doug he looks big yeah um but that's what maybe doug wants or doug wants to just go play golf or something i apparently that's what he wants to do but yeah and lawrence who's

played well. People had some funny tweets in the first quarter after the last game with the Eagles and then watched what he did the rest of the game. Yeah, Christian Kirk is hurt again. Evan Ingram is back dropping passes. The defense blows and they're playing rock, paper, scissors to take reps. It's just a mess. So I understand why their franchise quarterback is just kind of shutting it down. Get some adults in the room.

That's all I got to say. The band is not lifted. I'm just peeking open the band a little bit, and then I'll close it back down. But Vikings, this should be a game they take care of business. They have an offense going against a defense that's predictable, and then now they have their Brian Flores defense potentially going against Mac Jones. Left tackle that is now playing on the other side of the ball. Scherf got hurt at guard, so there could be some funky moments in this game unless Doug Pearson gets motivated, which...

I would bet against. All right, going to an NFC East brouhaha. This is one of your games. This is the Eagles and the Cowboys.

Philadelphia at another point at Dallas at Jerry rolled. Dak might be shut down. It is shut down. Yeah, he's on. He's on IR. I think they like hedged against it right there. Except like we might keep on. I can't remember. But he's hurt. He's out for at least a couple of weeks. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, he's out. That's that's all that matters. Cowboys are seven and a half point underdogs at home at Jerry world. All right, Charles, what's your one thing for this game?

Oh, I just saw today, Dak Prescott. I just saw this just now. Dak Prescott might need season-ending surgery on his hamstring. So he's going to be out. He's out. What's there to watch?

uh, Saquon Barkley. Not Trey Lance, I guess. Not Trey Lance. Yeah. Which, why did you trade for him? Like, just, it's, this is the perfect game to trot him out there. Like, no one gives a s***. There's no, you don't need a quarterback battle for whoever's behind a $60 million quarterback. Just throw him out there and see what happens. You traded a pick for him for that reason. But whatever. Um, they're going to play Cooper Rush.

I mean, with the way the Eagles defense is playing right now, scoring points seems like it'd be tough to come by, but I'll give a bit of fantasy advice. I would just throw anyone with an Eagles helmet out there into my starting lineup. Jalen Hurts, Adrian Brown, Zaquan Barkley, any backup tight end, any backup running back, because how the hell are they going to stop this offense? Like, personnel-wise, I don't think they... They obviously don't have the horses for it. They're not going to score a lot of points on offense. This is...

I think this is just another bad game. This is one of those games where I was like, hey, Dak plays. That might be interesting, but he's not. So it's not interesting. It's not. The Eagles defense is probably the most interesting part about all this. Eagles offense is kind of, you know, it's the stars. It's what you expect. So like you said, but their defense is interesting. I like a lot of the young players. So check out some Eagles young players when you're watching this game.

Zach Bond has been a great signing for them, but just all the Cooper Dijon, Quinion Mitchell, all these guys, they're really stepping up. So that would be the thing I'd focus on when I'm watching this game because it's not the Cowboys offense. I'll tell you that. No, there was the best way I can explain the Cowboys offense. There's a very funny play last week when they played the Falcons where they were in the red zone and Dak Prescott ends up scoring a touchdown where like four Falcons got free.

on pressures and somehow he escaped it. But if you screenshot it, like right before every Falcons player loses their motor controls and falls over each other, there's four, there's, there's four Cowboys off in the blind and chasing their defenders, trying to push them back past Dak Prescott. And there's Tyler Smith just on island near the line of scrimmage, just beating the absolute crap out of some Falcons defender. And now Dak Prescott's not there. So.

Has that become one of your favorite subsets? That's one of my favorite little bits now. Yeah, your subset of things is one lineman winning and the other four losing. That's like your favorite. The Bears darn outright one was another one you brought up. That was another one. Yeah. Out there as a man, you know, just built like a damn mountain, beating the hell out of some Falcons pass rusher while everyone else is getting beat around the ground. It's good. It's a great little subsection of a bit. I always say you got Jonathan Mingo.

At least they got that. Maybe he can play left tackle. I mean, he's not going to get on the field over C.D. Lamb. I said this on the show earlier this week. After the trade deadline, I was like, are they moving him tight end? Is he an F now? Because he can't line up on the outside. And C.D. Lamb's best in the slot. So I was like, what are you guys doing here? No one knows. No one knows, actually, what they're doing. Jerry probably forgot he made that trade.

I've been trying to think. I was like, he thought he was training for a different Mingo, but no Mingo came to my brain. So the joke, the bit fell away. But I think that, God, there's got to be someone from the early 90s I'm thinking of, but I'll finish the bit tomorrow.

who left the NFL a few years ago. That's all I got off the top of my head. Daniel Radcliffe's favorite player. Yeah. You know, probably shouldn't look up why he didn't actually make it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. All right, moving on to the next game. We're going to go with Chats at Cardinals, which is one of my games. Oh, what's the spread on this one, actually? The Cardinals are one and a half point underdogs.

to the Jets, but they are hosting them in Arizona. I guess some Jets fans are going to be traveling. They're feeling good about themselves. They got a mini-buy, I should say. Really actually had some notes for this game, believe it or not, because it's Cardinals are involved. Really, it's the Cardinals run game. Actually has great answers for the Jets run defense, especially now that Jamie Sherwood is one of the linebackers, who is a headhunter, by the way.

Holy crap. If I were in the NFL PA, I'd be sending him a note going, dude, chill. You can't be looking to knock out guys at games like every time you play. But the Cardinals have some great run answers for them. The Jets, anytime we talk about the Cardinals, it's going to be about non-zone runs. So duo, guys or pullers, gap scheme is usually guys or pullers, pin pull, those types of plays.

Jets bottom three and defending those runs. Bottom five, I should say, and defending those runs. They give up 4.8 yards per carry on those types of runs. Teams break a lot of tackles against them because probably going to the corners who play really aggressively, just kind of figuring out how they go there. They like to have their safeties rally down. This is what the bills got after him a little bit. Like they just kept running into light boxes. And then there was like one-on-one with the safety and,

So this is when the Cardinals thrive against on those types of non-zone runs. They average 5.5 yards per carry. James Conner is a monster on those. They're getting Trey Benson going a little bit. They're their day two running back pick from this selection or from this last draft, which is very explosive.

They're kind of easing him along. But they have some natural, I gotta stop saying natural, but some clean run answers here that didn't get after his Jets defense. That's what I'm checking out. I'm always just watching the Cardinals run game, like really whenever they're involved in a game. That's why I'm checking out because I think it's so fun. They also, because those safeties fly down to fill the run, they actually are susceptible to play action plays.

They're 30th and explosive pass plays allowed against play action. They're 28th and scramble EPA per play allowed. And I was like, why is that? You know, they got some speed up front. Like it's because they're so aggressive. They do all the games and stuff. And because their linebackers and safeties are so aggressive to fill the run that then they have to do the classic, like, Oh, where, where they go, you know, rally backwards.

So look for some Kyler scrambles, look for some explosive shot place. They're pretty good defending tight end. So Trey McBride might be, but it might be a Marvin Harrison jr. Greg Dorch, you know, maybe Michael Wilson. I can't remember Michael Wilson, I believe he's practicing, but, but those guys like look for those guys to get chunk placed. Cause that's what you're going to go out. So run the ball classic chunk place, but I do have one interesting on the other side of the ball.

Also, the Jets have 500 million injuries. Morgan Moses, Tyron Smith just sat out practice because he's old. Jake Hansen, John Simpson, Elijah Barry Tucker are all offensive linemen that did not practice on Wednesday. So not even a limited practice, just did not practice. Five offensive linemen. Not ideal. This is my one little stat, though, on the other side of the ball. So I'm giving you two things for this, everybody. Quick passes.

Aaron Rodgers throws more quick passes than anybody. That's defined as two and a half seconds or less. 174 pass attempts. Not very explosive, but very efficient out of them. Cardinals, bad against quick passes because they do all the funky blitz looks. Second to success rate allowed. Second to EPA for drop back allowed. So I was kind of like looking at that side of the ball. It's how the Jets counteract the funky looks because some of their protection stuff is still not good.

We'll get ready for a lot of Rogers quick passes, get a lot of Garrett Wilson over the middle, a lot of Devonta Adams kind of smoke stuff. So get ready for a lot of quick balls because they don't want to try and block up these kind of funky Cardinals looks that give some pass protection, some issues, give the bears a lot of issues last week. So that on that side of all, it's pretty interesting as far as like, it's going to be Rogers having to be a very quick operator, which you can do, but I have to see it for 60 minutes going on.

To one of your games, we have the Steelers at Commanders. Commanders are three-point home favorites.

What are you checking out in this game? This game could have been a game of the week. Yeah, this could have been a game of the week. I know. I know. It's actually a better game. So sorry, Steelers and Commanders fans. We can extrapolate here a little bit. Yeah. I mean, when you just look at the numbers, this is one of the best offenses in the league going against one of the best defenses in the league. And I think that this will actually be a fun litmus test for the Commanders again to see where they are. I

I know that the Bears were supposed to be basically their first big test in terms of defense a couple weeks ago. We saw how undisciplined that ended for Chicago, and it feels like that one play might unravel their entire season. This is still just a

a fun matchup. And when you look at the numbers for the commander's offense, third in yards per play, third in net yards per attempt, first in points per drive, second in turnover drives, like success rate, they're all top five. He paid for play, they're all like top three. This is an offense that has been, I mean, easily the most surprising unit, I think, in the league. And then the Steelers having a good defense, that's,

That's just kind of what they do. But I did, you know, I was looking this up. I remembered that Mike Tomlin had a crazy record against rookie quarterbacks in his career. He's 25 and six against rookie quarterbacks as a head coach in the NFL. Do you want to take a quick guess on who the last rookie quarterback to beat Mike Tomlin was? It was last year, last year.

It happened twice last year. I'll give you the first one. The first one was C.J. Stroud last year. Texans actually trounced the Steelers. Then later in the season, he lost to another one in division.

Oh, in division? Oh, DTR? Yeah, DTR. Yeah. The Browns game. I looked up the stats for that game, and he had 160 passing yards on 43 attempts. So, like, they got nothing out of Dorian Thompson-Robinson the whole game. But, you know, quarterback wins, so that's a dub for the Rook. The other games that he's lost to Carson Wentz,

Dak Prescott. And then there was a Brandon Whedon game in 2012. And in 2007, Troy Smith, quarterback for the Ravens, Ohio State legend, beat Mike Tomlin. That's one of the six. You got Dak Prescott, you got Cesar Stroud, and then there's

I love that it's capped by Troy Smith and DTR. Right. It's like a very fitting, like those are two guys that are cut from the same cloth. So that actually works out great. Uh, both those guys can run too. Yeah. You know, this is seeing here, you got, you know, Jane Daniels. Uh, yeah, I've, I've been studying the commanders a little bit cause I want to write about them soon. But, uh,

I actually had some notes on this game because I actually think it's pretty interesting. But no, it's kind of similar. The Commanders have the best run game as far as running back runs. So even if you take out the Jane Daniels stuff, it's better than the Lions, better than the Falcons in terms of success rate. Not very explosive, but just so efficient and really effective.

I feel like I have to say this every week now. The Commander's offensive line is one of the most surprisingly good units in the entire NFL. They're legitimately good, which is just really crazy because I thought they were going to be middling this year. Steelers are sixth against...

against running back runs. So, and they're the best team in the NFL defending scrambles, which is, so I think that's very interesting. They can stop the runs or slow down at least. And they're good at kind of corralling scrambling quarterbacks. But the other thing, and I think this is so important in this game is

commanders are phenomenal on third and fourth down second in the league in terms in terms of success rate only behind the chiefs mons is always up there and he has crazy numbers this year they're best on third and long the steelers are the best defense in the nfl on third and fourth down so i think that's going to be awesome to see because that's really been like keeping the commander's team alive is how effective they've been on third down a lot of because of jayden

So now we get to see a Steelers team that's, this is what they thrive in. So yeah, very fun styles, mixed fights game here. And yeah, maybe one we should extrapolate it. That's why we try to do it right here. We give it, we give you like a little,

It wasn't a deep dive. This was like a snorkel dive. Yeah. Yeah. To get to get you some factoids here. Dude, I've really grown to love watching Jaden Daniels scramble on like somebody's third and long place. He'll be running. Then it looks like someone's got a clean, like a clean type of him. Nope. I'm dipping out the way. And then he's so fast too. So fast. His acceleration is phenomenal. Like, yeah, I,

I knew he was fast, but it's like he's been even like, just the avoidance of hits, the avoidance of negative plays is just really remarkable to me. Like, sometimes I want him to push the ball a little more, but again, I'm not going to beg you to do that if you can thrive playing like this. You know, it's one of these like, yeah, I want him to do that, but if they can't stop it,

Who cares? Who cares? No one can hit them and no one can pick them off. That's going to win. Yeah, Commanders are very enjoyable. That game's fun. I'm excited to watch that one. Last game, one of mine, Monday Night Football, Dolphins at Rams. Rams are only one point favorites at home, meaning, you know, Dolphins, Vegas likes Dolphins a little bit. I do too. Oh, okay. I'm going to give you my little, Rams are getting some offensive lineback, Steve Avila,

Audrick Jackson, two starters on the offensive line. Their skill position players have gotten healthier, even though Puka...

Looked a little banged up last week, but also like Wanda punch and get himself out of the game. That was like weak ejection, weak ejection. It was, it was, it was, it was more like a sh like it was, you know, it was close to this, but it was more like, I don't know, like not like a actual, I don't know. No, no one listening to this knows what I just did, but you know, watching on YouTube and check it out. Uh, but the Rams defense since their bi-week, they haven't played the craziest slate of offenses. So this is three games. This is three games.

This team is first in EPA per play allowed, which, okay. Well, that was not, no, not what the, not the number I expect. I was like, they are playing better, but where are they right now? When I look them up and it was like, since they're by, so three games here first, um, they've allowed two explosive runs the entire time. So that, that just, that that's remarkable to me. Um,

The young players up front, you know, Jared versus top 10 and pressure rate. He was my mid season defensive rookie of the year. I tried to find somebody else, but it was kind of like, you kind of have to give it to him default to sweet, sweetest words in the English language, but he is playing really well, but it's part of this kind of complete front up there. Him Byron young, Kobe Turner, Braden Fisk, the other rookie defensive lineman for, for the ranch, all dynamite against the past. They do a bunch of cool stuff, twisting and slanting. They do some cool things with their personnel. As far as like, they'll have Michael Hoyt,

That's kind of like a spinner, and he'll plug in, and then they'll drop Byron Young into coverage, which I think is pretty cool. But what I'm curious is, how does this Rams defense defend a Dolphins offense when they want to trot out fullback looks without Gingold? Because this is how you get them. Rams are 25th in EPA per play defending two-back looks, 31st in rushing success rate, only against above the Bengals, which is not where you want to be.

So I think this is a big out in gold game. They were getting after the bills a little bit with it. This is kind of their bread and butter. Their run game looks a lot more alive with Tua in there because they have to at least respect the pass a little bit. And really why it's good against the Rams is they do so much five down stuff, you know, five Oh stuff across the board. If you're in two back looks, uh,

that creates a lot of one, if you run a zone, so I just close your eyes and picture has five defense alignment across five office alignment, run a zone. It's all one-on-one blocks. Now you have the fullback to fit up on the linebacker. And then one guy misses their hole. It's out the gates. So,

So that is why I think, and then, you know, it's a Shanahan guy and Mike McDaniel knows all the changeups off of that, the wide back stuff, the pin pull stuff off the counter stuff off of it. So they have a nice, you know, clean answer here, a clean way to attack them that I think they're going to really lean into. So look for it to be a big Alec Ingold game, not touches, but a lot of snaps for him because I think that's how you get off this Rams defense. But yeah,

Should be a cool game. I mean, you got some Rams offenses cooking, you know, that I know they had some woes last week against the Seahawks, but man, just watch that last drive. And then, and then going against a Dolphins defense, that's pretty dang good with an offense. That's kind of now maybe finding a little bit of rhythm with two back there. So you have anything for this game, but it's, it is an interesting one. It's like pick a trend that you want to follow. You took Rams defense. I'm taking Dolphins offense, you know, like the past two weeks, uh,

They look like what they did before s*** got sour last year. Okay. Not all the way back to 70 points. No.

No, no, no, but that little middle ground there. Right. We're still good. And I think the fact that they've still been able to run the ball through this and now you have an adult under center again. Tyreek Hill's getting the ball again. They're kind of figuring it out. I think that they have obviously a much better chance than they would have had like a month ago. But I've been pretty impressed with just the overall function of the offense. They look back to looking like a competent football team. But it's got to be a little frustrating because if you're a Dolphins fan, because like, damn, waste it.

Too many games. Lost too many games. Too early. Division right now? Right. No. Right. Yeah. And this is where you see, you know, the values of winning early season games. Because now if you're a Dolphins fan, you want to make the playoffs. Well, you got to win like seven straight games or seven of your next eight, potentially eight games to make it to get to 10 wins. That's that's a tough call. But I do think that they can give the Rams a tough game on the road.

Just how their offense play right now. It's been interesting because as the offense has come back, the defense has played pretty poorly. I think some of that last week was just Josh Allen and the Bills being the Bills. Week before that against the Cardinals, a little more concerning, I think. But

They're playing at least the best football of the season. I kind of get why Vegas is on them a little bit. I think they can win this game, but it's going to be a fun one. No, this is going to be a great one. I'm glad it's Monday night. Two cool offenses. I think that's a great way to put it. Rams passing defense, you can still get after them. The DBs, and this is by design, they want you to just hold the ball and let their crazy pass rush get home. If you can hang in there, like Gino kept trying to do, hang in there for three

three and a half seconds yeah you're gonna get chunk play chunk play so that's why it's basically the rams defense that's just to hold off those chunk plays try and then not get beat up if they go big ball uh and see it but yeah rams offense the office defense is pretty cool too that rams offense can cook all right we are gonna wrap it up with one quick mailbag question

Remember, you either can send in your mailbag questions to football301mailbag at yahoosports.com or leave a five-star review and jump to the top of the pile. This week, I'm going to go with Alex Porter's question about the Chargers run game. I don't know if you have any thoughts on this.

I was wondering it from Alex Porter, like I said, was wondering if you had any opinion, any opinions on the Chargers run game and why it is still seems to be pretty inefficient. What do you think? What do you see as the issue? And is it fixable in the short term? Then for me, I would say they had some Chargers or some Chargers, some offensive line injuries early. You know, a couple of guys all got her banged up. They're still kind of figuring out that offensively.

Also, I think some of this is by design. They kind of want it to be ugly and everything, but they're not all the way there. I think it's more just solid and everything. Some of the tight end blocking is just okay. It's more of a mindset than actual like, oh, our guys are really good. They're like, no, this is just a philosophy as opposed to an actual thing that they can lean on.

Dobbins is still effective and all that. I think it's just that they don't quite have the horses to do what they want to do all the way. And that's why it just kind of looks as it is. I don't say it's a bad run game. I think it's sound and all that. I just think that they just don't have the horses, especially along the interior of the offensive line that can really get them over the top. And I mean, they're using fricking,

like 300 pound tight ends and everything. So when that personnel gets in there, you kind of know what's common, you know? Uh, so I think they're working on it, but that's maybe, maybe they need another, no chartered strand wants to hear this, but they need another offensive line pick next year's draft, which I think they might be doing anyways. But, uh, do you have any thoughts on this?

Yeah, I think philosophy over execution is probably where they are right now. I almost shudder to think what the numbers on this would look like if J.K. Dobbins wasn't able to pull off an explosive every now and then. Because their success rate is near the bottom of the league. They're worse in the league in terms of percent of the drives that don't get a first down, like 45%. So almost half their drives are just downplayed.

DOA. And part of that is because they want to run the ball first down and they still are not actually very good at it. So, you know, if Justin Herbert wasn't here, dude, holy crap. It'd be the worst offense in football, probably. But, you know, you can still see where they want to move with this. And when you say philosophy, like,

I think you can even see where Greg Roman's trying to match some stuff that they did in Baltimore. The Scott Matlock stuff. Number 44, the guy who's supposed to be there, Pat Ricard.

No, not exactly. He's not in the slightest way is that guy, Pat Ricard. So I do. I said it like week one or week two, go get a real fullback. And I think that some of this can can actually pop off, but they're doing it their way for now. Luckily, you have Justin Herbert in the top five defense, so you can win a bunch of games to win that. Yeah.

That's the thing. They're trying to build like a good, like none of it's sound. Like I'm not like, Oh, why are you doing that? Yeah. It's just, they just can't pull it off consistently. I mean, every time I watch them, I'm not like, man, what are you doing? What are you doing? And then I look at, I'm like, Oh, actually that was interesting. Wow. They only scored 20 points. Wow. They're like bottom five and success rate. Really? That didn't feel that way. It's maybe because there's the,

eight to 10 Justin Herbert throws that are just the best throws you'll see all week. He's playing amazing right now. And then again, the stats don't reflect how well he is playing, but yeah,

The bones for the Chargers right now are really good. The baseline that they're building right now. I mean, they're winning games. It's not like they're losing and everything. So like you said, you can do a lot. You can see remnants of that. Yeah. It's like you said, a really good defense with Justin Herbert is not a bad formula to have. It's just, yeah, they're just working at it. They got to get the other horses and let McConkie rocks. That's the other thing I got to throw out there too. All right. Closing it out today. That was a ton of fun.

Matt and Charles will be back with me on Tuesday. Three man weave superlative show in some way, shape or form, either power rankings, some awards stuff, just a stuff show. So make sure you check that out. It's going to be a ton of fun. I am Nate Tice. You can find me at Nate underscore Tice. Where can they find you, Charles? You can find me on Twitter at four verts. I, you know, just, just tweeting through life these days. I'm going to post about some football, post about some music and keep it chugging.

You got, you're making like a playlist every day. Now I feel like you sent me a, send a new one every single day. It's better than watching the world burn. Yeah. Make a playlist about the world burning. There we go. Start out with the REM of

But subscribe to us, Football 301. Follow us. Rate us five stars. If you don't want to raise five stars, just tell me on Twitter. I can deal with that. Watch us on YouTube as well, on the Yahoo Sports YouTube channel. You can follow us on Snapchat if you're into that type of thing. Thanks to Brett, Stone, and Adi, as always, behind the scenes, making us look good, or at least somewhat good, as I stumble through this ending. Thank you all so much for listening. Enjoy your weekend. We got a couple good college games, like you said. We got some great...

NFL games should be a fun weekend. Hope you enjoy it. See you guys next time.

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