Thanksgiving Special! Eagles-Ravens, Bears-Lions, Dolphins in the snow & more Week 13 matchups
01:20:32 Share

On this episode of Football 301, Charles McDonald joins me to preview Week 13. Yes, a couple games on Thanksgiving and four more from the Sunday slate of Week 13. Plus, we recap Sunday night and Monday night football, the LA games that happened from this past weekend. Really fun show. Thanksgiving special show. See you guys in a sec.

For the nearly 700,000 veterans who call Virginia home, we are dedicated to helping you receive the support you've earned. With so many resources available to you, it can be hard to know where to start. That's why we developed the Virginia Veterans Network, a free online hub designed to make it easy for veterans and service members to connect with resources and support. To start exploring benefits and services today, visit dvs.virginia.gov.

The holiday season is here, and it's the perfect time for family gatherings and celebrating with plenty of delicious food.

If you're the kind of person who loves not only preparing meals, but also watching cooking shows, reading cookbooks, and listening to music while you cook, Amazon Prime has you covered. It brings all of these experiences together, making your holidays much easier and enjoyable. With Amazon Prime, you can get one-day free delivery on tens of millions of eligible items, so everything you need arrives just in time.

♪♪♪

Hello and welcome back to Football 301. I am your host, Nate Tice. Special Thanksgiving week edition episode of Football 301. We are kind of doing a hybrid show here. A little recap of Sunday night football and Monday night football. Then looking ahead to week 12. Oh, no, I'm sorry. Week 13. Week 13.

of the NFL season. We're just chugging along. Getting to week 13, we're going to hit up six games that we thought were most interesting. Everybody's playing. We got three on Thanksgiving Day. On Thursday, we're going to hit two of those, hit four on the rest of the weekend. To help me do that, to go over week 13, to recap those night games from week 12, is my guy, Mr. Forberts, Charles McDonald. How you doing today, Charles?

- Doing pretty good. Thanksgiving is in sight. Every second that I spend here is one second closer to me eventually closing my laptop for a day, which is good. That's why I'm mad in the week. I'm just trying to get to Wednesday night. - I open up that Google Calendar and I just see some blank days on there and I'm like, it scares me. I'm like, what am I missing?

What am I missing? There's something that has to be filled up on this day. You're back home. I know you had to help out your grandma before this recording. Is the grandma the cook? Who cooks things for you? Well, my grandma used to cook. Now my mom cooks mostly. Now today, grandma needed help setting up a new email account, which was just... That's a hassle, man. I had my moment with my...

My boomer dad the other day, he's not bad with tech stuff, which is it's a sliding scale with coaches, with football coaches, how good they are with tech stuff. And he like was really good at like 1996. And then basically all of his technologies from 1996, like what, what, what he learned, like what he was one of the first guy with the laptops, he had direct TV and all that, but it's kind of stopped there. And he was trying to set up the TVs. He was having people over for Thursday night last week.

And then he was like, I only have one Roku stick that I need to set up down here. Well, I have two and I can't get the right channel on there. And I was, those are smart TVs. You can just.

download the prime app on them and you don't need a stick and he just sat there and he didn't say a word for like 10 minutes and i was like all right i didn't think anything of it i come back he goes you're absolutely right and like he i could just tell you that's it because he's just like this is what i need this is why i was told i was need i need the roku stick and they're like yeah so everything led to one but yeah dealing with older people technology is always a hoot all right

We'll get into some recaps. This is kind of fun. I had some fun games in L.A. The scores looked a little tighter on the Monday night game than maybe how that one finished. We'll start with Sunday night, which was Eagles and Rams. Eagles took this one, especially in the second half. Saquon Barkley happened. Eagles won 37-20.

What were your takeaways from this game, Charles? Was it just, oh yeah, Saquon Barkley's really good. And this was a good signing by the Eagles because that's my takeaway. Yeah, that was one of the big takeaways, like watching it live. And then once I started just like looking at the box scores and some of the numbers from the game, it really made me

like pulling the view, like how important explosive plays can be over the course of the game, because you start looking at like success rate just from the game on offense. The Rams had a 50% success rate, 50.8% success rate actually compared to the Eagles, 45.2% success rate. But then you start looking at like what actually happened within some of the individual plays, but you're talking 142 yards and two Russian touchdowns on two plays.

for Saquon Barkley. The Eagles averaged 7.1 yards per play to 4.9 yards per play to the Rams. The Eagles averaged 7.9 yards, 7.6 yards per drop back to 5.5 for the Rams. So yeah, like maybe on a per play basis, you guys are having more, more quote successful plays. But if I can get 14 points on two of my plays and in all of your plays, you got 20, like that's the,

the uh the difference i think we saw last night so uh like the rams i think are just a baseline quality football team but the eagles are someone that's chasing like a super bowl title and to me that was like like you you can kind of look at that just in terms of the like success rate versus explosive play versus epa uh within that game because yeah the rams moved the ball but not the ball enough and in the manner that the eagles were doing it at times

It felt like just the Rams ran out of gas. Like it was one of those, we get excited about the Rams front, all the pressure they can create and they create a pressure in this game too. But then it's, if they don't create pressure, then you realize, Oh yeah, they don't really can't really cover a lot of people. Oh yeah. It's a little tough to tackle Saquon Barkley on the back end.

No, it's a great point about the explosive plays. It's what you really chase. It's like because one 30-yard gain is three first downs, you know, as opposed to one five-yard gain on first down is a successful play, but still only half a first down. Like if I hit two home runs, but you hit six singles, you're

I score two runs, though. You know, like it's just that those add up over time. So it's a great point to bring up. I don't want to dive into too much of my Eagle stuff because we're going to break down one of those games later and have some stuff on that. But recapping this. Yeah, Saquon Barkley obviously grabs the headlines. 16 and 26 successful rushes. 250 yards. 255 yards. Outside runs, though. Ones that went outside the tackle. 16 runs for 206 yards. According to NextGenStats.

only stuffed once. And I think that was stopped as your gain or a negative loss or negative yard gain. I, that's where it kind of stood the difference. I think with the Rams, the Rams were doing okay on the run game too, but, you know, which is, but they got stuffed five times. Kyron Williams got stuffed five times on his runs. Those are zero yard gains. Then it's second and 10. If you're running on second and eight, then it's third and eight.

And that matters because Fangio's defense is so soft. They're tough, but they run soft boxes, I should say. So if they're getting stuffs, that's huge because they're not committing resources to stopping the run and they're still winning up front. So that's the formula for them to win. But I know this Eagles team is...

They're damn good. Like this is this is a contender all the way. I know I'm not the crazy person saying that. I know we're all seeing the record and everything, but this doesn't feel as empty calories as their win loss was at the beginning of last year. Their Super Bowl run, of course, was really good, but the defense had so many warts that he was like, oh, you can pick at this if they face the right opponent. They didn't really face that right opponent till the Super Bowl. This team feels so complete.

running the game, run ball, passing game, and then their defense is the top five defense. So I don't want to spoil too much. We'll be talking about the Eagles a little bit more, but really good team. I still feel good about the Rams, but they have some holes, which we kind of all knew. Going on to the Monday night game, which was entertaining for about

Three quarters. And then it kind of got away. That was the Ravens. Ravens win 30. Ravens beat the Chargers 30-23. Another night game in LA. Fun vibes in this game. It was back and forth. It was a very entertaining game. Charles, what were some of your takeaways from this one? I feel like this kind of felt like the Bengals game where...

Chargers well coached Ravens blue chippers you know just especially especially the end when yeah yeah when they were when they were just like all right time to get out of here Derek Henry where you at and I felt like he broke every single tackle on the first attempt uh in the second half and you get I don't know feels like Lamar's best game from just like start to finish but

Like, you still got so many high-end plays from him that still end up putting you over the hoop at the end where you actually get the win. So, like, the Ravens, they're frustrating, but I do think that this is kind of like another continuation of the defense getting a little bit better. Even without Roquan Smith out there, you still had a handful of drives that you were able to stop before they got going. So maybe that's a sign of what's to come. But again, it was kind of like...

Chargers, good. And I know the record disparity isn't quite as big as it was in Eagles, Rams, but Chargers, good. Ravens, chase the Super Bowl. And I think that that's kind of where you saw the difference between those teams on Monday night.

difference between playoff team and contender that's that's a team that wants to make it the final four and a team that wants to make the playoffs and i thought that's a great way to kind of sum up both of these teams uh or both of these games too uh yeah the ravens started getting the two back stuff with ricard at fullback and they started running power just old school lead power and it was chargers just

It's tough. That's tough. If you don't have true horses at the front seven, the day you do have good players, Tartt had a good game, Terry Tartt. But it's just that you can get caught when you're trying to tackle Derrick Henry over and over. If your DBs have to come fill it, if you use light bodies a lot like the Chargers do and nickel and dime, that can wear on you, you know, play after play after play. The Quentin Johnson drop on third down was the...

That was tough. I know. That was kind of the ball game right there. You could just feel that because that's when the Ravens were starting to roll. Chargers are like, we need to score this drive. Get the drop on whatever it was, third and four. And then that kind of like all the air, all the sails. And then the Justice Hill touchdown.

which was really nice. It was a third down. The chargers don't blitz a lot, but they blitz on late downs on third, fourth down. And so that was a great way to go like, oh, you're going to run some funky pressure. Look, all right, we'll just run it on you. It just goes out the gate, like, which is one of my favorite plays in football. I love a team that runs on like third and four, third and five against a blitz and just catches them. It's like, I love that. So yeah,

Ravens offense is just tremendous. Again, we're going to be talking about both of these teams later, so I don't want to spoil too much, but this was a good game. It really was, even if the Ravens pulled out at the end because, like you said, they kind of just have that little blue chips. I mean, they're throwing up to Mark Andrews, and you're like, oh, yeah, Mark Andrews. They got this guy, too. So it's a really good offense that we're watching against a stout Chargers team, but still some holes there that they can pick at. All right, we're going to take a quick break, and then we're going to start.

with our breakdowns for week 13. Things we're thankful for. I think that's how we're going to encapsulate this. Games that we're thankful for, thankful to watch in week 13. But we're going to take a quick break and see you guys in a sec.

With Kingsford Match Light, all it takes is a match. No lighter fluid needed. So, whether it's a backyard barbecue or a parking lot tailgate, nothing gets the party started like Kingsford Match Light Charcoal. It's the perfect charcoal for on-the-go get-togethers. Give your food a smoky barbecue flavor and give your crowd something else to cheer about. Kingsford Match Light Charcoal. Kingsford's fastest lighting charcoal. Visit kingsford.com.

Target Circle 360 makes holiday shopping and gifting easier than ever with unlimited same-day delivery and more for just $49. That's 50% off a one-year membership, a deal you don't want to miss. From festive decor to groceries for your holiday meals, get what you need delivered to your door. But hurry, 50% off your first year of Target Circle 360 ends December 2nd. Happier holidays from Target.

Restrictions apply. New members only. Unlimited same-day delivery applies to orders over $35. See Target.com slash Circle for details.

We are back after that quick break. We're going to start with two of the three games on Thanksgiving. We crossed out Giants Cowboys. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Drew Locke, Tommy DeVito versus Cooper Rush. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm just not going to commit brain resources to that. I will be watching it, though, because I'm a junkie, but I will not be coming to a breakdown of that game. But the morning slate for Thanksgiving is

in a traditional matchup. We got the Bears at the Lions. The Lions are 10-point favorites at home. And I said this on our show, our Sunday recap show, which we will be doing again this week. I said, I was like, this Bears team isn't bad. They're actually pretty decent. It's just that they can't get out of their own ways. And this Lions team, though, is a juggernaut. So I think if we look at this, we'll go...

Do you want to just look at the whole game or do you want to look at one side of the ball to start? I kind of want we can start off with the Bears offense. OK, it's a line defense. Yes, Bears offense against the Lions defense. And my my thing that I want to see is to do it again because you're at the point where, OK, you got one good offensive outing. It had been about.

you know, a month, maybe a little bit longer since that it happens. So you're kind of in prime, like you have to do it again territory, which is, you know, pulling Vikings and then lions in a, you know, a four day span is, is pretty tough. But I do think that at least the bears showed on Sunday that they're a little bit better equipped at this point in the season, maybe to take on a tough defense. Yeah. I thought they had some nice answers. Yeah.

versus the Vikings. Because a lot of people, when they want to play these blitz-happy schemes, they'll call screens, and sometimes you don't actually get anything out of them. So you're still behind the sticks. But they're actually getting some stuff out, like the DJ Moore screens that they called. And I remember even Jory last week

our coworker, Julie Epstein, she wrote a story. I think she talked to Thomas Brown and he was talking about like how he liked to use screens to set things up and it worked against the Vikings to a degree and they were able to, to weather the storm, at least put up 27 points against a really good defense. So like you have some proof of concept that that is possible.

for this team that has just been in total disarray. It had been theory for a while because we've been sitting here saying, like, Doug, I promise you, this Caleb Williams guy, he's actually playing pretty well. And I know it wasn't perfect. Some people are pointing out a few misthrows that he had.

you know, on Sunday. But like when you, you drop back 54 times as a rookie quarterback against an elite defense, the fact that like the majority of your plays are, were positive and helping your team win, that's a, that's a really good sign. So the Lions defense is pretty banged up. There's going to be chances to kind of make something happen again. We saw in the Colts game that

There were chances to make plays against the Lions defense, but just about all of them got called back or dropped. All of them. Like over 200 yards called back of offense. Oh, yeah. Oh, my. And there was a touchdown that Anthony threw that was a straight up drop off the tight end, just bounced off the middle of his shoulder pads. And when he was on the goal line. Yeah.

So I find it hard to believe that they would get that lucky two weeks in a row where you're just like penalties, sloppy play, just pulling plays out from the other offense, like big time chunk plays, fourth down plays, scoring plays. So I think there's going to be opportunity for the Bears there. It's just like him to keep up on the other side because it's

uh you just gave up 27 points to an offense that's not as good as the lions offense which is a little bit scary and you know that dan dan campbell in a thanksgiving game i feel like he's just gonna have some tricks up his sleeve and ready to go for national tv but uh the bears i just i just want to see him do it again i thought that was just it was a it was a good start good proof of concept start that we can do some of this against elite defense but you know you got the lines in four days right after that so

For some reason, as you just said, Dan Campbell on Thanksgiving, my brain thought about... Do you remember when Jack Harlow did the halftime show last year? Oh, my God. In Detroit? Yeah. And he just had some hype man next to him just like yelling. It was just like a brutal...

brutal setting. It was so bad. It's tough. It's so tough. Those halftime shows are tough on the performer, man. But like, it was bad. Yeah. Because it's just hard. You're a rapper and you just are on your own there. Like, with no light show, nothing behind you. So, sorry, but for whatever reason, that just clicked in my brain. And Detroit, they always have someone...

like really old, like Motown famous, do that national anthem. So it's like, here's Gladys Knight. Here's Aretha Franklin, Jack Harlow. And they had another one the year before that was like goofy as hell too. God, I don't know. I want to remember it now, but,

Yeah, that was just really funny. I hadn't thought about that in 365 days. And then you just said it and it just popped right in my brain. But no, the Lions defense, though, they're second in DVOA, which is a really, really good defense. But like you said, there's spots that you can get them. Colts actually had a good game plan against them. They just couldn't capitalize on a lot of the stuff. I feel bad for whatever guard or the center that has to block a Lee McNeil.

He's very good. He's dominating games. He might be. He's the leader for a second team all pro for me right now. So interior pressure, you know, that's going to be something. I thought the Bears aligned did some nice things last week. I thought some of the protection stuff was really good. Caleb showed, you know, being able to drop back like you said that many times against the Vikings defense is saying something and looking sound and progressing on stuff.

it's just that this Lions defense is tough and they're able to match big bodies. Like they do the base defense stuff and I'm starting to study it a little bit. And so what they're doing is creating like five man surfaces against spread looks. So like they'll walk the Rodriguez linebacker down. And so it's called over will on or under Sam on and technical terms. Actually, you would know that your defense alignment over on it. So just when the linebackers walks downs and they'll run zone coverage behind it.

But they're going to make it a slog to run against. So that's where it's like, all right, it might be more Caleb chucking the ball again. And then it's man coverage. And now these guys, these receivers, DJ Moore, Roman Duzay, Keenan Allen, they have to beat man coverage, depending on the health and everything. But that's just what the game plan is always going to have to be against this Lions defense. Yeah, I know. It's just like you said, can you do it again? That's it. It's...

That's what the NFL is all about. Consistency. Can you do it every play, every series, every game? That's what we have to see out of them. And again, not a bad team. But the other side of the ball is interesting because situational football is going to be huge in this game, like third downs and red zones. So the Bears defense, Bears defense gives up a lot of explosives.

But believe it or not, this team that's given up a Hail Mary and a run at halftime along the touchdown run is really good in situational football. Believe it or not, they're sixth right now in third down defense. The Lions are fourth in third down offense. Red zone efficiency bears defense. Third Lions offense. Fourth goal to go efficiency. So inside the 10 yard line.

Bears third, Lions second. So it's not so much going to be, it's going to be just these high leverage plays that I think it's going to be the real crux of this side of the ball and a little bit strength on strength, but the Bears defense, you can get them with big plays. It's just that they usually tighten down once you get them in the red zone. So Lions second,

they'll cook some stuff up. So, but I'm curious too, is if it tightens down, does it become a field goal game? Like all those types of things. So I, that's when I'm watching this side of the ball, it's really just going to be a lot of that. You know, it's just when they tighten down the red zone, they tighten down a third down. Last year, the bears did a great job of like finding the tendencies that this lion's offense had. And I actually thought the bears defense really stood out. Frank Ragnow wasn't playing in the one game I studied last year, but it just feels like it's a little harder for them now that for this bears defense. So yeah,

Any thoughts on this side of the ball? I think it's going to be pretty. I think this side of the ball is going to be pretty fun. Anytime it's the Lions offense, it's pretty fun to watch. Yeah, I just you want to see the Bears defense is kind of get out of their own way for once because they like I I get a little confused like sometimes with the explosive play stuff because they do have enough talent for that not to quite always be a thing for them. Right, right. Like you have you have like someone good at basically every level of your defense. I'm

I thought even Kyler Gordon has some really nice plays on Sunday. He continues to just be one of the better young nickel slot guys in the league. I still just struggle to kind of get there because against the Lions offense, there's just so much they can throw at you because they can march down the field and literally just move people out the way. It's the easiest way to score. That's tried and true in the NFL. If you can pick someone up and move them out of the way and run behind them.

that's going to work out. And the Lions can do that just as well as any team in the league. So I still expect the Bears to have some nice counter punches, but...

Man, just not enough where they can actually get home. It's just hard, yeah. The Bears... So I was actually just, as you were talking, I was looking up. I was like, maybe in the second half they get tighter because I feel like a lot of the first half big pops happen on the Bears. But the Bears' defense is first in EPA per play allowed in the second half. So they adjust really well. And that's what... And the Lions...

one knock on ben johnson he's been way better this year and some of the last year was once he gets outside the opening script can kind of get a little iffy if he's not in a very positive game script he's i mean the lions haven't really had to face that this year and their offense is just cooking everybody so maybe look in the second half seeing if that bears you know the bears tighten down a little bit but they still give up explosive plays it's just a conundrum it's so weird like i watch them i'm like oh they do some sound stuff and they but every week

they give them some big play even outside the hill mary and stuff they just do that so yeah uh it's it's tough against the lines but i do think this can be i think it's gonna be a little more interesting are you do you think the lions cover 10 points

10 points seems like a bit much after what we just saw from the Bears on Sunday. I know. I'll be a coward and say they get nine, the cover by one point. Sorry. Just as we're wrapping up, Dan Campbell says he thinks David Montgomery will be good to go on Thursday. Lions cover then. Lions cover. That's enough for the last one-up point.

I go Lions win. I'll say Bears cover. I'll say they'll keep it within 10. But no, I think the Lions will be in pretty decent control in this game. All right, going to the night game. The one, man, I think Thanksgiving night game has been happening for like over a decade now, which is crazy. This one's fun. Dolphins at Packers. Packers are three-point favorites at home. And I even looked up the weather for this game because it matters based on one of the teams.

Weather forecast in Green Bay on Thursday night, 28 degrees at kickoff and a chance of snow showers. So speaking of when you hear 28 degrees at kickoff and possible snow showers, let's talk about the Dolphins offense.

Going against this Packers defense. Because, yeah, what are your thoughts on that? Especially if they have to go in a little bit of cold weather against this Packers defense. Because I want to just keep coming back to the, because they've been so pertinent every week. I feel like the hashtag since Tula came back stat. Because they are. They're pretty good. Right. They're really good. Yeah. Yeah.

They're averaging three points per drive. They're averaging their third in EPA per offensive play, first EPA per dropback, second in success rate, first in success rate on dropbacks. They're a top two, third down team. They're first and third in long conversion, first and fourth down conversion. I mean, they have just been bullying people. Basically, in every aspect except for consistently running the ball, they've been just about elite as you could be since Tua got back. But...

I did not fly to Kansas City and watch them and myself freeze their asses off in negative 30 degree temperatures to have any faith that they'll do it again in the cold. And, you know, I kind of don't get this to a degree because not all of these guys are from Florida that are...

Oh, here we go. Some guy getting defensive. No, I'm not getting defensive because I played football in Maryland, Pennsylvania too. That's true. That's true. So I, I kind of don't get like why they go, like, you know, it's going to be cold when you go to Lambeau in, in,

in November. And you know what cold feels like for the vast majority because I kind of just don't get why they lose their minds and forget how to play football. But it's a thing at this point. And I always wonder if it's a thing sometimes, and this is just getting into like psyche stuff because they just...

don't have like the normal bravado toughness, masculinity stuff that other football teams have. It's more like, yeah, we're going to out game you and we're going to be quicker and faster than you. But then sometimes someone just punches you in the mouth and you need to have a recourse for that. And they don't always do that. And I think what is a little concerning about this game is

The only flaw since Tua got back, really, is that they haven't run the ball all that efficiently. I think Edgerton still has moments where he can get something done for you, and overall, he's still one of the better backs in the league, but that's still an area that's lacking. Now, against a Packers defense, like,

They're gettable in terms of explosive plays and stuff like that. But again, as we saw this past weekend, they are like the ultimate bend-don't-break defense where you can probably just get down the field on them and then all of a sudden Xavier McKinney is making his 100th turnover of the game and you're looking back and you're like, damn, we averaged five yards a play and we scored seven points. And that is where the Packers defense can be frustrated to play against. It really does just come back to...

can you get it done in an area of the calendar of the year of the country where you haven't been able to do it yet? Because when I just, when I start comparing just like the football aspect of it, I would say, shoot, I think the Dolphins could score 30 points on Thanksgiving, but they never do when it gets down to this part of the season. It was in two, it becomes like,

Like Tua, especially coming back, like he's as accurate as ever. He's got some of the timing throws up in the middle was what like teams like the Bills did last year in the regular season. But then the Chiefs in the playoffs, they said, all right, push it outside the numbers. All right, do it again. All right, do it again. They just pack the paint over the middle and they're like, all right, try and push everything. And they were just daring him to do that. But it's kind of.

Easier said than done, first off. Second off is the Packers like to be in a lot of single high. Last week against the 49ers, they were in cover three 40% of the time. 49ers offense and the Dolphins offense have some similarities. So I'm curious if they lean into the same thing. The other thing, too, is now the Dolphins and some Matt and I have been kind of talking. We won't shut up about this guy. John Smith with the Dolphins is down.

That he's this is he's a great answer for what the Packers want to do on defense and some of their weaknesses, you know, linebacker coverage stuff over the middle stuff up over the flats to because that's just a good answer against single high. And the other thing is the Packers as their changeup will do some cover six cover two, which is good against the Shanahan offenses for outside runs because in the corner gets involved.

And John Smith is good against that too. Tight ends are good against cover two, cover six. So I think it's another John Smith game. But, you know, then it's going to come down to Packers tackling, all that type of stuff. And I actually thought the Packers were doing some interesting stuff against the 49ers. Like they're changing up their fronts.

They're walking their linebackers down. And the 49ers in the second half, what they started to do until the game got out of hand, they tried to do a lot of split zone stuff and crossing the tight end. So I'm curious. It's good film for the Dolphins coaches that probably just go, all right, we could just do this if they try to do that. We do this if they try to do that. But yeah, it's a good parameter test for the Dolphins to just kind of go like, all right, it's like a frozen monkey on their back.

You know, can we get this off? Like, get this, like, we can't win in the tundra. We can't win in the cold because that's going to become a thing until you show that you can beat that. So this is a great chance for them. They have answers, I think, natural answers to find on offense.

you know and i think the packers defense isn't bad they do some really cool blitz look stuff but they're more middle of the pack i think no just kind of no matter how i kind of parse them so yeah i don't know this could be a really good proving ground game for this dolphins offense to really show what they are because like i i'm glad you robbed the two of stats because when you look at him on the field it's like first second third first second third first first first like just everything so

This is what we expected out of this offense anyways. I mean, not what they were the first eight-ish weeks. The other side of the ball, Packers offense, Dolphins defense. What are you focusing on this side? I like watching the Dolphins defense because I think this style of defense, we just kind of have to, especially if you're coming from whatever they're doing in Baltimore, Mike McDonald and that tree, we've got to call it the give it time tree because we're

Because one of the things that I remember we talked about before the season started with Weaver going over there, I think you were like, well, you know, there's not really so much in this game. They just want to be good at everything. And it takes time to be good at everything. If you want to run everything, it takes time. It takes time to kind of figure that out. And I know, I think one interesting thing is the Dolphins' defense hasn't been as consistent as they were since Tua got back. Because before he...

while he was gone, like they were kind of the only thing giving them a chance to actually have tight games while Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson are trying to remember what a football is every single play. You know, the Dolphins defense is out there actually fighting. And they've fallen back a little bit, but

I actually think that they've done some nice things. Like, I've liked how they started to deploy Jalen Ramsey as a blitzer and as someone who can play a little bit more downhill. I don't know, because I don't... I'm sure it's intentional, but I don't know how much it is, like, to his...

whatever gifts he has as an outside corner is starting to decline a little bit, or if that's where he's felt more comfortable because that's where he has some of his best years playing for Brandon Staley. But I think he looks really good. And I think that matchup, if they decide to put him in the slot for his Jaden Reed, that could be...

just an all like a big time Thanksgiving night matchup because dude, I, I know I posted our group chat the other night, but when Christian Watson dropped that Hail Mary, I'm not the Hail Mary, but just to go route. I was like, dude, you, you,

You split both defensive backs that were guarding you. You are wide open. Like, you have four or five yards to step to anyone. And it hits him right in the hands, right in stride. Like, you could not ask for a more perfect route, setup, and throw. And he just dropped it. Like, to me...

They have like two guys that you can really count on the receiving game with Jaden Reed and Tucker Craft. And even Tucker Craft, not quite as much as Jaden Reed. I don't know if that's just more they just don't throw to Titans quite as much as they would like to Jaden Reed. But it seems like you've got two guys. And if the Dolphins can at least...

maybe get rid of one of them or at least put a better matchup on them. I'll be interested just to see how they respond because I think even the Packers, or not the Packers, even the Dolphins like front seven should be able to hold up against the run game a little bit to a degree. So I think that's a long roundabout way of saying Jalen Ramsey versus Jaden Reed is kind of what I'm watching. It's a really fun game. Yeah. No, Ramsey is playing hard right now. Hard, yeah. Hard. It's kind of cool to watch because he's still a freak.

And I've always had a theory that he'll go on the Charles Woodson career path and become like a safety guard.

as his career goes along. But no, he's playing really hard. He gave Drake May a shot on one. Oh, yeah. You can see May got up and was like, that would feel good. Because that's another thing with Ramsey. Ramsey is gigantic. He's 6'2", 6'3", 215. He can roll like that. It's cool to watch him again, kind of just playing like this and playing loose.

So no, great shout there. This Dolphins defense, it's one of these where I test, I keep going like,

this is like a top eight defense, right? Now every number is like 16th, 14th, 18th. So it's an eye test, better defense than maybe the numbers. And I, it's one of those trust me, bro kind of defense is like, no, it's actually a good defense. I promise. Like they make it really tough. They have good players. They have players at all three levels, which is, which really matters when you're kind of like breaking this thing down. So there's not like one area glaring weakness that you really pick at for them. But there was one thing I've tried to cut.

Cut through the numbers. The Packers like to get to a little bit of everything. Their run game is pretty fun. Actually, really fun, I should say. All the spinner stuff was two tight end looks. So you just brought up Tucker Craft. Wish Luke Musgrave was healthy. But the Packers were dropping a lot of two tight end looks, too, and do some play action out of it. And they do some really cool stuff out of it. So I looked it up. Dolphins against 12 personnel, which is two tight ends.

Twenty eighth and combined successful combined sex rates, successful play explosive play rate. Twenty eighth and defensive rushing success rate allowed not explosives, just, you know, churning, you know, those those run plays. They give up a lot of explosives to play action.

30th in explosive pass rate against play action, 25th in EPA per play against play action. So that was kind of the natural answer for her, I think, for the Packers, which isn't like twisting their arm. They do this stuff anyways. They're going to put tight ends out there sometimes. They're going to run play action out there on first and second down. So that was one area where

think they're going to try and get some of the chunk plays. Like this is going to be a classic Packers game plan. Like I don't think they're going to have to, neither side has to reinvent the wheel. The Dolphins are going to play how they play, run a little bit of everything, a little bit of zone, a couple of pressures every once in a while. The Packers are going to do what they do.

some 11, some ponies, some 21 or some 12 personnel, but they're going to run a ball, do some cool run play stuff, some play actions, try and get some chunk plays on the play action. So what'd you say with Reed? I'm just trying to even think like Romeo Dobbs or any of the receivers Watson, if he can catch the ball.

I think it's hard to kind of predict, but I think craft will be on the field a bunch. So might be some craft stuff in there. This might be his game too, if they go into more 12 stuff. So that was one path I could just see. I'm curious on early downs in this game is how, how the Packers attack. And one of my favorite offenses to watch still, even when sometimes it's not going well, they just, they just do a lot of cool stuff.

Yeah, Christian Watson, man. I needed those fancy points so bad because I was like one in five in this league and now I'm six in five with a strong chance to make the playoffs now. And I was like, oh my God, I need those points. So damn bad. And then Justin Till saved me with that 50 yard touchdown last night. I was like in the clear. Got it. I'll do it. Oh no, Watson.

I just praised Watson with mad. I was like, you know what? It's not my favorite player in the world, but he's playing well and he's playing tough. And of course he drops a wide. What's worse about that one too is Romeo Dobbs is like celebrating it. And then he turns his celebration into like, I'm making fun of Christian Watson as he's dropping the ball. You know, you know, before the play, when it should be a touchdown, usually, you know, and it's right there. I know.

Love is playing well, man. I know it's not always, he does a couple of dummy things every week, but it's, there's some throw that throw was beautiful. Like it was just perfect. And yeah, it gets dropped. So it's, I, I, I think this game is gonna be a really good game. I really do. The Packers are three point favorites. Like I said, what's your prediction for it?

I'm going to go with Packers. Lambeau, Lambeau night game bump. First to Dolphins. That's how I'm going to. I think it's going to be a good one, though. It's minus three. I think that's going to be kind of it's going to be a one score, not just a one score game, a tight game, a one, two or three point game. So I'm also going with the Packers. But things are going to be good. The Dolphins are playing good ball. They are. They're trying to rally for the playoffs. And they look good as good as anyone right now. I'm going to the last game before we take our next break.

One that's close to home for you, even though you're not there right now. Got the Chargers at the Falcons. Falcons are one-point underdogs at home to the Chargers. Only one. Only one. Only one against the fighting Harbaugh's. All right. So we're going Chargers offense versus Falcons defense. What are you keeping your eyes on for this matchup, Charles? Wow. I mean, after last, that game against the Broncos, I mean...

Wow. I hope that they have come out of that by just a little bit, not a little bit, a lot more focused than they were. Because I thought that not only did they get outplayed, they got outcoached too. Yeah. Kind of like every single level. Out-efforded it. Just everything. Yeah. Dude, it was bad. Especially when you're... I watched the Broncos-Falcons game. I'm not thinking about Bo Nix when I go into that game, right?

I'm thinking about how horrid the Falcons make me feel sometimes. But when I'm watching that game, I'm like, this is the damn Falcons' fault. Like, this is not anything that the Broncos' offense or Bo Nix is actually doing. Like,

Like, anyone can sit there and call a million screens and call, like, some fakes off of it if no one is going to be 10 yards within a player when they catch the ball on the screen. Like, that's the easiest defense to prepare for. And if you're going to play like that against Harbaugh in this Chargers offense...

dude, you don't stand a chance. Like they don't stand a chance if that's how it's going to look. I just really worried about them not having answers for like what Harbaugh comes up on offense and what Minter comes up with on defense just after

that Broncos game because they just, they, they, everyone, every single piece of that team had circles ran around it. So like, obviously we know what the Falcons defense or pressure rates really bad. I'm sure that they're, you know, they're missed tackle rates probably among the worst in the league, especially like after last week and,

you know, the other games they played this season. So I, I don't really have any faith that they get it done. I think they kind of get punched in the mouth again. I, I felt that way for the Denver game. I was like, I don't know. It was a bad matchup for him. It was a really bad matchup. I, I, I think this one might be a little bit closer. Um,

Just because, one, I don't think the other coaching staff inherently has it out for them. Some of those plays that Sean Payton called, I'm like, oh, you've been sitting on this waiting for this game. I know how I feel about Sean Payton still, so I know he still feels that way about the Falcons. I think the first touchdown that they scored where they had a leak out the backfield to the fullback at the red zone, I was like, okay, Sean.

I, I see what the, see what the deal is. Right. All of this is, that's another terrible matchup. It really is. They're not good against hard, hard discipline teams. They can just pound it on you. And that's what the chargers are. Even if their stats aren't great, they're going to find a way. They're going to poke at it. They're not great against play action. Chargers run play action more than anybody. And they're good at it. And the Herbert's cooking on those. Uh,

It's like anything I looked up, I was like, even if the Chargers weren't high in their stats, it's like, this is what we worried about the Falcons before the season. Even if they played above their weight, the defense did, at least for the first few weeks. And now it's like, oh, yeah, this is what we thought of you. No pressure. All right. There's gaps on the back end. There is. Yeah, there's two guys covering the same spot. Like they have botches now, metal laps on the back end, which you just can't have if you don't have that kind of talent level.

And going against a Chargers team that doesn't make a lot of mistakes, they're going to just pound it on you. It's like, yeah, it's a tough matchup for them. So I just wrote down it's a gut check for the Falcons. Luckily, this is an AFC game for them as opposed to an AFC game because it's just, I don't know, I just don't think they match up really well against a Chargers team that doesn't have a ton of horses but still was going to have some good game plans. They're going to pound the rock. It's going to feel a lot like how the Broncos game did. It really is.

But even just better quarterback play. If the Chargers can get pressure, this is over pretty quickly, I think. Yeah, so the other side of the ball, is that how you feel? Just if they get pressure, it's game over? It's kind of game over. It's funny because I feel like I'm in a spot where Becker's can't be choosers because I have grown a little bit tired of the Kirk Cousins experiment. You know, what was it, 11 games in? Almost.

although he's, he's, yeah, that's it. Like, we've reached the ceiling on this thing, I think. Dude, he still can't move. It's week 12. And, and, and I, I never expected him to be a pocket pass, or not a pocket pass, or like, you know, scrambling around like Lamar or anything like that. But like, you can't move at all. Like,

any play where the defense gets pressure, and this is why I've kind of been impressed with the Falcons pass throw to a degree because they don't get any help from the quarterback at all. So any plays where the defensive linemen break through, I just kind of ask the fact. That's

That's dead because he can't, he can't run away from anyone. So I, I, I appreciate where Kirk's done this year, but yeah, if we get someone to hear, you know, who's a little younger, faster, played for university of Washington and they're up to speed anytime soon. I'd be okay. You saw those two passes. I was like, I'm done. I'm done. I'm done. I can't do another year of,

You know Statue of Liberty back there just getting pummeled as Caleb McGarry finds a new team and Jake Matthews turned 40 years old I know it's like Joe Namath after he had his like stuff couldn't move in the pocket The no there's actually stats that back this up for a Shanahan based team, even though they're more I would say this is an offshoot tree They're more McVay offense the with the Falcons do and

They're 32nd in play action rate, 7.9%. What happened to the formula? You do all that running so you can do the play action shot plays and screens off of that stuff. They're dead last. It's because he can't move because he can't turn his back and flip his head back around and look.

Like he just can't move in my play action requires a lot of movement from the quarterback. Like you have to step up, you have to shuffle, you have to find different launch points. They're moving the pocket for you. And it's kind of crazy. Like the Chargers again, like the Chargers defense, we've kind of like, I think everyone's on the same page. It's a good defense. That isn't a great defense. They haven't played anybody, but it's a good defense. That's really punching above their weight and sound and all that stuff.

But on first and second down, they don't blitz a ton, but they can still create pressure because they still have some dudes that can create pressure. Now you got all these games. You got Caleb McGarry against Khalil Mack or Joey Bosa or Tuli Tuliapo. Not exactly what I would want. You got a backup center against Tira Tart or Puna Ford.

Like there's just, there's holes that this Chargers defense can really pick at. And there's 10, I mean, the Falcons are coming out of bi-week. So you hope that they're about to add a whole bunch of new layers to their offense. Raheem Morris already talked about the play action stuff.

And they're still like, shoot, I mean, look, they're second in rushing success rate. They're seventh in explosive play rate. Like it's a good offense. You're right there. I know. But that's what happens as the season goes along. You can the good defenses are good offense to start poking at the stuff that you're bad at. And that's why I'm just like, all right, you got to buy week.

Like what, what's next? Like what else he got? Like, cause they run so much zone. That was another thing I noticed is that they were, I mean, Bijan's good on zone, but they run so much zone. Chargers are pretty good defending zone. But the thing is too, is that if I'm Jesse Minter, who has obviously shown that he's really good at this game planning stuff. All right, you run all that zone. We're going to tee off on it. Like we're going to have a different front answer. We're going to have some, some, you know, change up. Maybe they're off a short week and,

And the Falcons catch him on that. So the Falcons have only pulled a player on a run play once this entire year. How about that stat? They've only pulled a guy once this entire year. And so that again, those are tendencies. Those are tells. I wonder if the charges tee off on that. So yeah, the Falcons are one point underdogs at home.

Wow. You feel about this one, Chuck? What's your prediction? Falcons fall to 6-6 in the playoffs, becoming in danger. Wow. Look at the scheduling. It could be interesting on the back end. That Saints loss was a big deal. I was like, you really needed that one. You really needed that one. Yeah. Luckily, this is an AFC game, but yeah, still. Yeah. I...

I think the Chargers are going to kind of pop them a little bit. I think I'm going to go with like a 24-20 Chargers win here. That's what I'm going with on this game. But we're going to take a quick break, and then we'll come back with three more games from Week 13.

With Kingsford Match Light, all it takes is a match. No lighter fluid needed. So, whether it's a backyard barbecue or a parking lot tailgate, nothing gets the party started like Kingsford Match Light Charcoal. It's the perfect charcoal for on-the-go get-togethers. Give your food a smoky barbecue flavor and give your crowd something else to cheer about. Kingsford Match Light Charcoal. Kingsford's fastest lighting charcoal. Visit kingsford.com.

This Thanksgiving, Target makes hosting easy with our lowest prices of the season. Like good and gather premium turkey for 79 cents a pound and quality green beans for 55 cents. Or classic stovetop stuffing on sale for $1.99 and delicious favorite day apple or pumpkin pie for only $4.49. Plus, get unlimited same day delivery with a free 14 day trial of Target Circle 360 to make planning even easier. Save more on hosting. Happier holidays from Target.

Restrictions apply. All right, next one up, we have Cardinals at the Vikings. Vikings are three and a half point favorites. This is the Nate Poole game. I don't know if you know that reference, but Vikings fans certainly do. So in 2003, my dad was the head coach of the Vikings. They played the Cardinals at Sun Devil Stadium. Week 17, Josh McCown was starting quarterback. I think he was either a rookie or second year guy. They had just fired their head coach.

Oh, wait, I know this game. Yeah, this is like a very big scar of my childhood here. And then they get an onside kick. It was just a slog the whole game. They get an onside kick. The Cardinals do. Bounces right off a Viking, I think like Jimmy Klein saucer's chest. Cardinals come down, get pressure. Time's running out. McCown breaks contained. Kevin Williams is chasing after him. Throws it. Nate Poole gets pushed out. And back then, they didn't have the pushout rule.

If they have ref determined that you would have came down without a push out, it would have been a complete pass. They changed a fricking rule after that season too. Yeah. So, and I was sitting in the stands cause we thought we're about to clinch the division, the Vikings and I'm sitting in the stands in second row at, and that touchdown happened right in front of me. So yeah, if you want explanations about how, like why I am the way I am, this is one of those games. But anyways, yeah,

picking at that scar like I said fun game when the Cardinals we got two you know

playoff contenders here. The Cardinals, we'll start with the Cardinals offense versus Vikings defense. What are you checking out on that side of the ball, Charles? I would say for a lot of teams that are going against the Vikings, but just how they hold up against the funky stuff that they throw at them. I think that this is kind of a funny game. There's a lot of funky in this game. Yeah, I was about to say, for both sides. There's a lot of funky on both sides in this game, yeah. There's a lot of funky stuff, but I do want to see how the Cardinals end up just dealing with that because I think they actually have

a lot of answers like the natural answer of you have Kyler Murray a quarterback and I think that maybe maybe this week wasn't the best example but for most of the season I think he's been really good on like the extended second play that the Cardinals offense needs sometimes and really that his style of play just adheres itself to sometimes because I think that you know in theory like that's where you can get

where you can get a defensive blitz a lot, especially if you can evade the first wave of defenders. Now you're looking down the field and they don't have as many guys in coverage. It just kind of becomes a math problem with who you're looking for. I think that that could end up being pretty big for this game. And also, when you look back, some of the teams that the Vikings have had trouble with, and I come back to the Lions game a lot, when you're blitzing like that and you're blitzing versus the run, if you can just get...

Sometimes all you just need is one or two blocks to end up in the right spot and you can spring that thing and go loose. And the Cardinals, like they're a team that can run the ball pretty well. So I really just like...

both phases of the run game, like the on-schedule runs plus some of like, you know, the scramble type stuff that Kyle is going to do in the backfield. I just want to see how much of that they can do to help keep them, to help keep them just alive in this game. Because I know that if you get into a spot where it's a bunch of like third and eights, third and nines, third and tens, even though like the Cardinals tackles, I think they play pretty well this year. That's still a tough ask just from,

schematic perspective so just their ability to run the ball and keep themselves on schedule uh in this game i think is gonna be key yeah this might be the hoss fight always decide the ball uh because uh vikings defense and it just keeps blowing my mind they're like the best run defense in terms of success rate right now and they don't give up explosives their third and explosive runs allowed uh but they're going against the cardinals who are first explosive runs gained

And second in combined success play rate and explosive run rate. So it's just a strength on strength there. And the Cardinals will get explosive passes. The Vikings give up explosive passes. That's what happens when you do so much funkiness on the back end. That's the tradeoff. We're going to catch you, but we can get caught if we can block it up and everything. Stop me if you've heard this before with the Cardinals. It's a duo game.

It is a duo game all the way. You know, the Cardinals like to pull people, but they also use duo a bunch too. Duo does not pull anybody, but it's just like power. Vikings, 23rd in success rate allowed to duo, according to FTN Fantasy. Vikings are the best defense in the NFL against pullers.

They only allow 20% success rate when offenses pull people, which is absurd. So only one out of five runs is a good run for the offense. Arizona pulls their guys more than anybody, especially pinpull stuff. They are first in the league in that, but they also run duo a lot. The duo, again, wads stuff up. You can get a lot of five, six yard gains.

if you can block all the funkiness that defense wants to do, colonels have good protection rules. They're, they're really well coached. Like that's the, that's the summary of the Cardinals. They're really well coached on all sides of the ball. Not as good against the blitz. I thought they would be like, the rules are good, but their execution hasn't really all the way been there. They're 29th and EPA per drop back against the blitz, which shocked me. I, I, cause I, I never watched them and gone like, Oh, they can't do this. Like, Ooh, that's bad. And so,

maybe they're just on a bad luck, some drops, you know, those types of things. Cause I test doesn't match that.

But it's a thing, though. They haven't been good against the Blitz. The Vikings blitz a ton. So I'm just curious how the Cardinals handle that. Because I do think I've seen Kyler gash this in the past. So, again, it's more just like I'm betting on that as opposed to maybe how these stats look. But great call about the third down runs or maybe just running the ball against these Blitz looks. The Cardinals love doing that. I already brought it up. I love a good third and four run. The Cardinals will do that. So look out for that, too. And then the last thing, and again, these are like

How we started this. There's a lot of shared notes on both sides of the ball on this one. The Vikings drop eight more than anybody where they drop eight into coverage, only rush three. That's the change up with all the blitz looks that they run. Cardinals are actually really good against it. Kyle, because Kyle gashes you like how you be drop eight. Obviously you run against it, but if you're throwing against it, they want you to throw quick. They want you to throw underneath and then they cloud it up and tackle how you get teams to stop doing as you beat them over the top. Oh, you want to cloud the throwing lines? All right, I'll just throw it over the top of you.

eighth and EPA for drop back against drop eight, Kyle Murray. So that is another thing that they have, again, a natural answer as well with the term we keep using, but they have a natural answer for that. So I'm just, Cardinals are one of these teams where I just want to see how they solve a problem. And Brian Flores' defense, it's a problem every week for these offenses. So I think they have good answers, but it's going to be pretty tough and I'm excited to watch it. The other side of the ball, don't look now, but the Cardinals defense is 12th now in DVOA.

Holy crap. What? Wow. They are. Apparently, I know. And then all the underlying numbers are 28, 29. So I'm going to guess it's somewhere in the middle. But they are playing better. But you're watching this Vikings offense versus Cardinals defense. What are you checking out, Charles? I just pulled up the last month of Cardinals defense football. They're basically like a top 10 defense team.

Top 10 offense, top 10 defense, and a good special teams, too. I know. It seems like the one area where you can... And this is actually where I was going to take the Vikings preview. But the one area... Especially if you're looking over the past month, that the Cardinals defense is still very much gettable is running the ball. So we just saw Aaron Jones have a good game against a...

probably tougher front than what the Cardinals have. I think that's fair to say in Chicago. And again, it's kind of the same deal, right? Where the Cardinals, they're trying a whole bunch of funky stuff out. I kind of feel like with the Cardinals, it's been like, well, oh my God, like we just, what do we have here? Like, we just got to try everything to see if we can make something. Buda Baker's pretty good, huh? All right. You just throw him everywhere. Yeah.

And also, I don't know if this is totally right, but sometimes when I'm watching the Cardinals defense, it feels like when Gannon was in Philadelphia, everyone was like, oh my God, he wrote one coverage, dude. Like, come on. You have anything else? He's like, I'll show you what I got. I can try just about everything. The rest of my menu. Yeah. I'm going through my whole playbook on the video game. I'm calling everything. Don't look at me.

I think they're probably going to have to lean into that bag of just trying to just throw at the Vikings until they can get off the field because every fan knows this. I think every player knows this. Everyone who's been a part of a football team knows this. It's just, it's tough.

when all the other team has to do is just run the ball to kind of keep things moving on track. You know, we don't have to put the ball in the air. We don't have to get into these long down distances. We don't have to like put ourselves in danger. So if, if the Cardinals can stand tall against what the Vikings want to do in the run game with Aaron Jones and, and,

you know, I know Vikings fans don't like when we say this, but if they can get into spots where Sam Donald's got to throw it, there are going to be chances to make plays on the ball and potentially get some turnovers. Um,

And, you know, it's not to say that Sam hasn't been like the best version of himself because he absolutely has this season. This has been his best year of his career by far. The Bears rewatch. He was a lot better than I thought. I test. I watched it on all 22. He actually he actually had a good game that I do want to recant some statements there. But well, yeah, I'm not going to do it, though. He's going to give you some chances. He's always going to give you chances. That's chances. Yeah. Yeah.

Now, the big thing here is I just think that Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, that's such a big advantage over what the Cardinals have at cornerback right now that the picture might just be so clear for him that there's chunk plays.

First, you got to stop the run because that's where they've been getting beat a lot. And that's where if I was like game playing for this game, say, shoot, we can just run the ball and throw to Justin Jefferson. That seems like a pretty safe bet to me. So it'll be interesting to see how the Cardinals deal with some of that stuff. And I like that we're getting these games where teams that blitz are going against teams that like to run the ball. And it's just like the ultimate chess match in that. Because I feel like when we think of chess matches, a lot of people just think like,

pass coverages, like schemes like that. But this is, this is very much a part of that too. No, there's a lot of dials that like they, you know, the, these teams could figure out. No, it's,

two of the funkiest defenses that run the most unique defenses, I should say. And while I drop a creeper pressure simulated normal blitzes, they run a lot of just goofy stuff. And that's why it's fun because all the units feel viable here. You know, it's not where I'm like, oh yeah, one, one of them is just the clown off to the side. It's like all of them feel like actually units worth talking about. So that's fun. But like on the flip side, when just talking about like the blitz,

you know, EPA against the blitz and everything. The Vikings have gashed the blitz this year. Highest explosive pass rate, second in the EPA per play. When you blitz them, Darnold's going to chuck it. I don't know. This is easier for me to say sitting in my chair in Las Vegas, but it's, if I were saying the Cardinals defense is like, make it as boom bust as possible. Like just try and make Darnold hold on the ball, try and catch him with the sack, try and catch him with a turnover and,

He might catch you three, four or five times, but maybe if you can get him five, six, seven times with sacks and all that, that's, that's, that's the formula, I guess. Again, easier said for me than not. The Cardinals, Cardinals also drop eight. Just like I said, with the Vikings defense, they drop eight, the second highest rate. Vikings are first highest rate. Again, funky, funky, funky, both teams. It's just,

It's just pretty funny, like, just to finally get them to match up against each other. So you're going to see more drop eight probably than you've ever seen in the entire NFL in this game. But again, make Darnold hold on to it and make him progress because Darnold's going to try stuff. He has the five high-end throws a game. He's going to give you three chances to make a play. And if you don't take... Some teams have taken...

great opportunities against that. But if you don't get those, it turns into a slog against this team because they can run the ball now. The Vikings, you already brought that up, but that run game is solid, man. And I was looking, I thought that would be a good answer for the Vikings. Oh, getting the two-back stuff with C.J. Hamm because that's how they got the Bears. And actually, the Cardinals are good against two-back looks, which actually surprised me because I thought maybe some funkiness and they'll just get road graded, you know? But then...

Again, this is kind of my brain, though. And then I'm like, well, and then when they played the Rams and the 49ers, that's where the Buda Baker three safety stuff comes in. So they actually have good answers against that stuff. Like the Cardinals defense, they're based to beat Shanahan offenses. Even if Kevin O'Connell is a total offshoot of it, he still kind of is a Shanahan offense. So curious of just the Cardinals have some cool answers after the motions, all the shifting, how they insert the safeties and the Buda Baker stuff. So.

I'm excited. I'm pretty fired up for this game. I think both sides are going to be a lot of fun to watch. I've been thinking about what you said about the Vikings defense being really good about pulling. And I was like, I feel like that kind of tracks. If you're going to be a team that blitzes a lot...

if you're just kind of walking yourself through it like yeah if we're blitzing we should meet you guys in the hole when you guys are pulling most of the time so you know that's a we're hopefully a second or step ahead compared to a normal run play where you're just walking off the line instead of having someone meet you and i was like that makes sense kind of yeah and it just edginess was the term my dad always used and i always use it too yeah so when you pull guys and also a defender slants it's like

In theory, you can gash it, but it's so much, that's theory. Because usually what happens is one guy's not ready for a slant or a blitzer, and it just becomes a whole mess. You get scared a little bit, like, what is going on? Like, oh no, am I going this way, am I going that way? I think I'm supposed to block down, but does the center trust I'm supposed to block down? Oh, shoot. Yeah.

And then you watch like, but then you watch like a real good lines. Like you watch the lions and like, they just wrote great. Anyone that slants against them. Cause they're all so well coached. They're like, yep. Okay, fine. We'll just wad that down. So, but yeah, it's,

I there's something to it man like oh yeah you only can do this run against us like that that you take away paper and scissors and you just have to throw a rock it's like well I become better defending rock if you just that's the only thing you could throw against us this Brian Flores guy he's pretty good uh going on oh yeah prediction for the game Vikings are three and a half point favorites uh the Vikings man I am too even though I think the card will cover that thing it's close

I'll go with the Cardinals. Just give us a little difference there. But I got instinct as Vikings. But yeah, this one's going to be a fun one. Next one. Another fun one. I feel like these teams are like kindred spirits for some reasons. Maybe because Harbaugh came from there. But we got the Eagles at the Ravens. Ravens are three point favorites at home. Actually, kind of. That might be a little tighter.

Fun one, two really good teams, two teams that we just talked about a little bit to start the show. But we'll start with Eagles offense, Ravens defense. Charles, what are you focusing on? Dude, this is the Hoss fight. Yeah, this might actually be the Hoss fight. Because I do the Ravens run defenses. Yeah.

it's the one part that's been working the whole season, right? Where there's stalwart and the Eagles offense is also obviously stalwart. And that's going to be where there's like mini earthquakes just about every single play. Because I don't, I don't think that just because you're going against the Ravens run defense, I don't think the Eagles should like stray from what what's gotten here to this point. Like,

You have to just keep churning and running the ball because that's going to be probably the best part of your offense at this point. I mean...

I did the Gerald McCoy and Kyle Vannoy podcast again this morning, and Gerald was talking about Saquon being the MVP candidate. And if you watched last night's game, I don't think that's necessarily an unfair belief to have. There's nowhere specifically written that it's just a quarterback award. And you could say that Saquon Barkley has had as big of a positive influence on his offense as most players in the league have. So I just want to see that part.

Again, because I think, you know, when you start looking at some of the past game stuff for the Eagles, you can get got on a slant and go or slant or go to A.J. A.J. Brown at really any point in the game. I don't really hold it too much against, you know, defensive backs when that happens to them. And that's a big part of their offense. So you just have to hold tough. But the Ravens run defense as something they've been able to rely on. Eagles run game has been something they rely on. So whenever you see a big on big matchup like that, it's fun to watch.

Yeah, it's it feels to me it's like, all right, who wins the one on ones like is versus Nate Wiggins or Devante Smith, you know, base. That's how I feel about this game is because I think it's going to be each side gets their own like this Ravens run defense. You like you saw the Chargers, especially in the first half where they come a couple times, but then they just tighten and tighten and tighten and tighten.

And then you're not scared of Quentin Johnson. You know, you're not scared of, you know, Will Disley's had a nice year, but he's underneath, you know, that McConkie can only do so much. So they kind of took the charges out of their game. Obviously, when you have a good game script that happens. But yeah, I mean, it's kind of feel we've talked about the Ravens defense a ton, but they can stop the run. It's just that can you gash them through the air? So to me, it's all right. Comes down to those.

six one-on-one targets to A.J. Brown. That's what this game feels like. Can those pop? Can those turn into big explosive plays? They've done enough of them, and they can catch you at any time. Like I said before, it's like this Eagles team feels like a contender because they can score in three-play drives and score. They can run the ball for 80-yard gains. They have a lot of answers right now. Like, Hurts is...

negatives or kind of his blemishes have really been mitigated now because they just run the ball so well and so much now and it's like they're figuring out their balance you know we always use that term balanced offense and think of like 50 50 the eagles are figuring out their version of their balance and i'm liking it like it's stripping away rpo stuff it's really working for them um yeah i think they're gonna have the answers you know raven's defense again is just like

They have botches on the back end. Can you catch them? Like, can you catch those times that they do have the botches? But they're honing in a little bit. The other side of the ball, more good on good. Ravens offense is cooking everybody. I mean, shoot. And then the Eagles defense is top three, top four, however you want to look at it.

When you're looking at this side of the ball, I got a ton of notes on this one. More notes than the other side. But when you're looking at this side of the ball, Charles, what are you checking out? Because I think this one's pretty fun. Man, I guess if I didn't want to do the O-line, B-line battle again, but really, I want to see...

kind of just gut check for Coupe de Jean in this game. I feel like, cause you're going to see, he's going to see a lot of targets to tight ends with Mark Andrews. And if likely gets back into the game plan this week, I feel like he's kind of been erased a little bit, but yeah,

which is funny considering the narrative. Like, oh, Mark Andrews is done, about to take it. - Is done and now he's back. - Yeah, now Mark is back, just being Mark Andrews again. But you're gonna see like a lot of tight end targets.

You're going to see like Zay Flowers in that portion of the field, whether it's like on the design cash or whether he's sprinting backwards 20 yards trying to make something happen. You're going to see Derrick Henry in that portion of the field. So I feel like this is just a big game for Coupe de Jean. And he has been really good up to this point. But this is also kind of a different beast. It's like, all right, you've seen a lot of what the NFL has to offer. But now here's...

Here's Lamar Jackson, here's Derrick Henry, here's Mark Andrews. And those guys are gonna be attacking you a lot in this game, just by nature of how they play the game. And I kind of think that Quinion Mitchell and Darius Slay should be able to hold their own to a degree.

just against the Ravens wide receivers, but like that middle of the field portion. It's not, it's not just the gene. It's in the Kobe Dean, Zach bond, like all those guys who have kind of been thrust into the spotlight this year and I've all played really good football. It's like, here's, here's your biggest test. Um,

And I think that that's going to go a long way towards deciding how far this Eagles team can go in the playoffs. Because once you start to get to versus a team like Detroit, probably in the NFC title game, you're going to be facing some similar threats, albeit dressed up differently. So this is a good gut check for them and for a young defensive backfield that's going up against a really tough test this week. Yeah, first one.

I was looking at this. I was like, all right, how would I go against a Fangio defense? Like Fangio defense against the Ravens offense. All right. Two backs. Patrick Ricard. All right. I'm going to look at that. Ravens defense when facing two or fewer receivers.

So this is 21 personnel. This is 12 personnel. This is 13 personnel, whatever you want to do, tight ends and fullbacks. They're the best defense in terms of combined success rate and explosive play rate. They allow the fewest yards per play, 3.9 yards. They have the second best rushing success rate allowed. So then I, you know, all right, well, this is why you trade for Deontay Johnson. All right, let's try out three receivers.

How good are the Ravens offense when they have three receivers out there? I'm glad he asked Charles. They're the best in the league. First in yards per play, 7.1. Second in EPA per play, first in explosive play rate. The Eagles defense against three receivers or more. And this is not exactly what I thought when I started pulling out this thread.

You can run on them. You can run on them. You could spread to run. Just kind of opposite what the Ravens got to last game against the Chargers, where they started going more bully ball. This is the opposite. And this is why this Ravens offense is so tough, is that they are explosive and really good out whatever they want to do. You want to play single high. You want to do one-stop scrambles. You want to stop the run. No matter what you do, the Ravens have an answer for it.

All right. But the Eagles against three or more receivers, 18th rushing success rate allowed, 23rd explosive rush rate allowed, second in explosive pass rate allowed, no play actions, all those types of things. So,

I'm curious, like, is this just a big spread to run game? I'm sorry, Patrick Card, but you might have to stay off the field. You know, this might be a, we might see more Deontay Johnson out there. You know, Rashad Bateman had the big catch, but Zay Flowers and everything. So that's where I just think that might be their answer, where they spread everybody out, they get the clean looks, and then run off of that against all the light boxes that Fangio likes to do. So you brought up Cooper DeGene. He's going to have to get his ass to fit the run. He's going to have to be...

It's not going to be the coverage games, and he's a good tackler, but it's not going to be the coverage highlights that we've been highlighting him the last few weeks. He's going to have to stick his nose in there because... You're with these hoop...

Yeah. This is, Hey, he went to Iowa. He knows big time football, but Derek Henry's a, is a totally different type of thing than what you have to face against, you know, Wisconsin. We had John Clay when I was there, but he was not playing against Cooper to G in the last couple of years. So yeah, there's some, there's some cool answers. I think the Ravens can get to, but the thing is Vic Fangio is really good at this stuff. So like, how does he determine to stop this? Like what wrinkles does he throw at? Do,

Do we see more of a bunch of really mugged up, or I should say mugged up, a bunch of fronts where everything, all the double teams are taken away? Like what answer do you just take with a run game in there? Might be a big Lamar running game. Just kind of just pop some things there. So another really fun one. The Ravens are three-point favorites. What's your prediction for this one? Ah, man. I'll flip a coin in my eyes and go Ravens win. Okay. They're so close. They're so close. I don't really feel strongly either way.

Yeah, I think these are two contenders. These are two of the best teams going at it. I'm going to go with the Eagles because I just think they're cooking right now. I think they've got a good team. Can you believe the Falcons beat the Eagles week two? At Philly? In a night game? Look, what the hell happened there? Well, it's still like we always bring up when we talk about the Ravens. It's like, oh, that week two game against the Raiders.

It's like, yeah, that happened. Like that still happened. Like that's what NFL is great. Falcons losing to the saints. Oh man. It's the best. It's yeah. I, I, this, the Eagles, like I've last year, especially, I just kind of always kind of like, man, you know, they're a good team, but man, they're just kind of,

paper tigers a little bit or like they have these holes and now they just kind of patch those holes up and actually some of those holes turn into strengths it's like just a really good team so i'm gonna go with them in this game but i think the ravens are good too last game and then we'll wrap it up 49ers bills foreigners are playing at buffalo buffalo the bills are seven point favorites still uh brock purdy i believe through yesterday on monday

Still should be determined if he plays well.

Foreigners have the ball against the Bills' defense. Let's assume Brock Purdy plays. Okay. Because I'm about to say, if Brock Purdy's not playing, what I'm looking for during this is literally anything else to watch. Anything else to watch. I know. We broke down the Foreigners-Packers last week, and all of it just got thrown out the window because Allen was playing. I was just like, oh, this isn't as fun. Yeah, and I did try to watch that game, but...

after a while it was like all right scott hansen you got the keys i'm going to red zone there's there's just nothing there after a while but show me the way yeah if brock purdy plays you know i i still want to see if he can just kind of keep up the past production that he's had this season um because like on an efficiency basis and honestly with the eye test too like i think this is probably the best property he has played um in his career just like in terms of

Actually just playing quarterback without everyone being superheroes around you. And I'm sure like, you know, having Kyle Shanahan scheme has helped a bunch, but you know, I don't know if he's $60 million good, but he's good enough where I would like, we can entertain the idea of you being a long-term quarterback for a few years. And I, I think that that's kind of really their only chance in this game. Because I know like you, we watched Christian McCaffrey play,

and he doesn't look quite like the same. The run game hasn't really quite been all that explosive for what we've been used to this year. So if Brock Perry doesn't play, there's not much here, but if he does play, I just kind of want to see if they can continue to throw the ball down the field, and if he's going to be able to still make some of those second-chance plays that he's been good at this year. I still think that some of the throwing and structure is a little shaky, but the one thing I'll never take away from Brock is that

he's just not scared out there. It's just not scared, not afraid to get hit, not afraid to make a tough throw, even if it's something that he shouldn't be making. So if they're going to have a chance in this game, when, when he comes back, if he's able to play this week, like that's going to be it. Like the Brock's a kiddo. What can you get out of the Debo Samuel connection? Um,

that's really all I got because this 49ers team it feel it feels bleak like that that I know I know they're five and six but like that game on Sunday felt like the end of their season they're five and six and like they're one game behind the NC South winner but it just felt like the end of the season it's just that what are they leaning on and like that's the thing it's it shoot I'm watching that Packers game Allen's in there so I'm like all right you know

Anytime there's a backup quarterback, I usually take everything with a kilogram of salt of how they do. So it's opening script. Kyle Shanahan is notorious for his immaculate opening script stuff. Packers run a front, and I could see the foreigners off in Salima, probably an unscouted look, had no idea how to block it. And two guys were unblocked. So why I'm bringing this play up is it has nothing to do with Allen.

And they run a base run play that they've run a million times and guys are going to the wrong spots and two guys are unblocked. You just don't see that in a Shanahan offense. That's what like, uh, that's something I think just gets misconstrued with it all the time is the tension, the detail with this offense is insane. Like Shanahan's really good with, Hey, receivers, you have to go block this guy tight ends. You have to block this guy, everything working in unison. And so to me, seeing an opening script play, meaning they practiced it all week, I

the defense, you know, I mean, they haven't played this defense coordinator, but they played the Packers before. And then it's nothing crazy new, but it was just a new look. I guess the Packers run, but it,

It was just like the 49ers had no idea what to do. And I'm not used to that with the Shanahan offense. Usually I see them, they're like, no matter what you run at them, it's just like, ah, page behind. Like, you run this up, guess what? You just have to catch up. So just kind of saying, it's just like, again, it just doesn't feel right. I mean, obviously when you're starting quarterbacks down there and CMC is playing at 75%, but it just doesn't look the same. It just doesn't look as dangerous as you would think. And this Bills defense,

which plays a lot of cover too um that's been an answer that a lot of teams have gotten to against this foreigners offense where you get the corners involved all right we'll make you nickel and dime passing game wise you're trying to limit some of the bigger plays but then getting the corners involved in tackling so you can't run outside um so you take away the outside zone runs and other runs that they want maybe some pin pull stuff so again the bills have answers they have speed at linebacker

do the foreigners try something new in here? Like if Purdy doesn't play, then it's just whatever. But you know, if he is playing, it's like, all right, so we're like, what's the new evolution that you're going to throw on? I know they're running more gap scheme stuff and pullers and stuff, but it's like, all right, where, where is it? Like, where's the teeth? Like where, where I know you're getting four or five yard gains. Where are the 15, 20 yard gains that this offense I'm so used to. It's just, you know, so those have good answers for it. So it's just that if Purdy doesn't play, I'm just like, oh man, that's tough. On the other side,

I mean, it's just the same story. Like the bills can do so much personnel wise that I get the linebackers on the field for the 49ers. All right. If Nick Bosa is not playing, we're just going to pound the rock on you.

like they're they're going to pound the rock and throw in slot areas like the seam areas like i can already just see how you attack this defense um but i i think you see plenty of jumbo personnel from the bills um i think you see a lot of zone runs i think they just try and catch fred warner leaning and they just take advantage of that i think they have good answers i mean and they are maybe healthy too coming off the bye week and everything getting some of the receivers back but

When you're looking at that side, anything else stand out to you? I just think it's a, Bills kind of have to do what they have to do against this kind of 49ers defense. Yeah, that's what I'm feeling. If you're looking at like a two guys going at it, probably Josh Allen versus Fred Warner type of deal. Cause yeah, yeah. That's, you know, two of the best players in their position going at it. So yeah,

Besides that, like you said, I think you just got to do what you got to do, man. Just get across the finish line. It's not like this 49ers defense is just dripping with talent. I expect any offense quarterback by Josh Allen to just kind of beat up on a defense like this.

Yeah, especially if Nick Bosa is not out there. They can kind of get to the runs that they want to get to. So that's just tough. Weird. If you don't have your defensive player of the year out there, it's really tough to play defense. I don't know. It's kind of crazy how that works. And on offense, even your best receiver is out, your best running back is crippled, your offensive line isn't all that good. It's kind of tough to even sustain that on that side. Who knew? Even Kyle Shanahan needs good players.

I know. I'm seeing just the offensive line. Like that's, it's never been a, it's never been good talent unit, but they never, they play better than their, their parts. Like that's all the dolphins offensive line is too, man. It's just rough right now. It's like, that's the thing that stands out. We just did that mock draft. And I was like, make sure they, they, they should need alignment. Like they, they, they, they need something there. Like they need somebody to just turn it through. So, um, all right, wrapping it up. That was it.

Thank you, everyone, joining us for our special Thanksgiving week hybrid show. That's what we're calling it. I'm thankful for you. Just so you know. Thankful to everyone listening. You being Charles, I should say.

Well, thank you for you too. I wasn't sure if you meant. You, me, Charles. I'm thankful for you. Thankful. Now I was just talking to my TV. Thankful to Stone as well. And Brett, thankful for you guys. Thank you for everyone for listening. There's no show on Thursday because it's fricking Thanksgiving. So just listen to this one again, if you want to, you know, want something new in there in your ears, but we did show it to your family too. Yeah. Yeah. Your friends. Hey, Hey, you know that Wednesday night where everyone's out at the bar and you'd be like, no, I don't need my seventh drink. Yeah.

I'm going to be listening to Football 301. Well, if you listen to Football 301, this is Charles McDonald saying, get that seventh drink, pal. And respectfully, respectfully, you know, the person you've been crushing on, keep it tasteful. But this is your shot, you know. Wednesday before Thanksgiving, keep it tasteful.

Turn off the podcast when you get to drink six, go on to drink seven, keep it tasteful out there. People. And now they hear that. And that's going to see, see the end of the podcast just with that. And they're going to feel good when they go talk to Amy at the bar. But Charles and I will be back on Sunday, recapping week 13 day games. I am Nate Tice. You can find me in a underscore Tice. That is Charles McDonald. Where can we find you, Mr. Verse? I just spelled it anyways.

You can find me on mostly blue sky now at four words. So be sky that social Twitter account. So up at a four words on Twitter, but I haven't posted there in over a week now and I don't really see a reason to go back. So mostly on blue sky. And then I don't even remember what I wrote this week, but I will be done with it. Yes. Before Thanksgiving, but we'll have a mock draft. We will. We're doing, we're comboing a mock draft. So I'll be fine.

That's a, that'll be out by the time you guys hear this. We just finished it. Who was our number one pick? We went, we went jacks. Oh, Travis Hunter. Travis. Oh yeah. Travis Hunter. Star talent. Yeah. I know that one's tough too, because it's just like, there's even some guys I think are going back to school. Dang. And I L but anyways, check that out. Mark draft. It'll be up on Yahoo. By the time you guys hear this, also send in your mailbag questions, a football three or one mailbag at Yahoo sports.com. So,

Subscribe to us, follow us, rate us, watch us on YouTube, on the Yahoo Sports YouTube channel. Make sure to check that out. Thanks to Brett and Stone behind the scenes. I told them I'm already thankful for them, but I am again. Thank you for everyone for listening. Hope you have a great Thanksgiving. Hope you have a great week 13. We'll see you guys on Sunday.

you

With Kingsford Match Light, all it takes is a match. No lighter fluid needed. So, whether it's a backyard barbecue or a parking lot tailgate, nothing gets the party started like Kingsford Match Light Charcoal. It's the perfect charcoal for on-the-go get-togethers. Give your food a smoky barbecue flavor and give your crowd something else to cheer about. Kingsford Match Light Charcoal. Kingsford's fastest lighting charcoal. Visit kingsford.com.

Target Black Friday deals are here. Get up to 50% off tech, video games, toys, small appliances, holiday trees, and more. Plus save on the essentials to get your house ready for the season. Save more on gifts with Black Friday deals. Happier holidays from Target. Restrictions apply.