Final predictions for every AFC team: Jets, Titans, Steelers & more
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On this episode of Football 301, Charles McDonald joins me as we pick our win totals for the AFC. And we pick them.

Because it's a juicy one for you guys. It's a meaty one. Over two hours of picks, plus some preseason chatter to start the show. See you guys in a sec. Credit Karma makes building your credit straightforward and stress-free with help from our credit builder. Sign up today at creditkarma.com and start enhancing your financial health. Credit Karma, your partner in building a brighter financial future. Credit Builder Plan is serviced by Credit Karma Credit Builder and requires a line of credit and savings account provided by Cross River Bank member FDIC.

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Hello and welcome back to Football 301. I am Nate Tice. We have win total predictions today. Overs, unders, 16 teams in the AFC. We got a juicy one today. It's a meaty episode of Football 301. To help me do that is Mr. Virts himself, Charles McDonald. How are you doing today, Chuck?

Doing good. There's some construction going on next to my apartment. And I wouldn't really call it construction. I would say around eight o'clock every day. Since before we went to LA to record the shows, I'm awakened around eight o'clock every day by just like tank fire. And it's just awful. Because they're in the building next door. Yes, in the building next door, they are completely dismantling it. And I mean, there's bricks like strewn all across the street. It's a mess.

It's really, really, really loud. It's really annoying, but they're done for the day now. So we have this beautiful podcast to record. That's perfect. You said you're like, there's literally bricks like laying here. Oh yeah. Yeah. There's actually sidewalks.

I don't know what they're doing, but the guys over there seem to be having a ton of fun just literally taking sledgehammers to walls and beams. It looks pretty cathartic, but it's really, really damn annoying. Yeah. Who needs a shrink? Just break some stuff. Hit some walls with a sledgehammer. That would get some venting out right there. I also...

I think this is just another kind of look behind the curtain. I was just very curious about that whole experience that you had because you're like, hey, I need 15 minutes. I was like, oh, no, we're recording like an hour. And he texted me. No, no, no. I'm already anticipating that we're going to need 15 minutes after that hour because I'm seeing where this thing is going right now. But I could I could hear the beeping from they have trucks inside the building right now that are taking debris out and I can hear them beeping and hitting against my wall.

All damn day. So yeah, couldn't quite record earlier. Also, it gave us a nice little bit of time during waiver wire cuts because...

a former member of your Georgia Bulldogs was cut today. And it feels like you had a nice little rant in the group text about this, about what happened to those Georgia Bulldog national, those vaulted, like those national championship defenses that had all these first rounders and all this speed. And Louis Scene gets cut, former first rounder for the Vikings. The famous Louis Scene after the Vikings traded out of the Kyle Hamilton spot was,

with their own division mate, the Lions, so they can get Jameson Williams. Just by default, Jameson Williams ends up being the better pick there. Ends up being the winning of the trade there. No, no, no. The Vikings traded down, so they won.

Yeah, exactly. That's how that works. And didn't the draft models even say it was like, oh, no, this draft model said they won that trade. Now the draft models are like, actually, that didn't look that good. Yeah, not the best first go around from that regime from Kweesey, Kweesey. But also, what do you think about the Georgia Bulldogs and the pros? Like, you just go by player by player there off the top of your head. Yeah.

Well, it's not so much a rant because I personally emotionally benefited from this greatly for two years in a row. It's the most fun I've ever had watching college football. But we are at a point where I think we can talk about, hey, most of you guys haven't done anything in the NFL. Quay Walker and Devontae Wyatt are just hanging out in Green Bay making mistakes.

It completes so far. Yeah. The people who said N'Kobe Dean was too small were right. Louis Dean got hurt immediately as a rookie, and that was it for him. He never really bounced back. Channington Dahl, he was kind of an interesting player at Georgia because he ran a 4-3, but you could tell he had to be pointed in which direction or where he needed to go. Jordan Davis, he's 340 pounds. The 4-7 doesn't really matter if you can't stay on the field. Trayvon Walker. Just relax.

Quality number two defensive end for now. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, he is. He has a role. He's never going to live up to number one pick, I don't think, but he's going to have a nice role in this league. I think like just what I think he's going to end up being. Yeah. Nolan Smith is like 215 pounds. I'm out on him. Yeah. Keely Ringo is a backup corner for the Eagles, but we got Jalen Carter.

The one that we all said was the best one. The one that we all said was the best one the entire time is the one that is the best in the NFL. But it is kind of crazy to me. That defense was legitimately historically good. Especially in 2021, they had a case for maybe being the best defense ever. It's kind of crazy that none of these guys have really hit.

Yeah, because the other defenses that I think of in college are like the old Miami defenses and USC a little bit too. Like early 2000s. Like 20 times Alabama? Yeah, them too. But those guys hit a good chunk of them. It wasn't every single one. The Miami guys kind of felt like that, but it was kind of more of a mixed bag. Here, it was just one after another. It's just not even where they're like, oh, this guy's useful. It's like, oh, I don't know if this guy's going to stick around. I feel like Kirby Smart...

He almost did it like justice where he found like the meta and then he just got a bunch of 99 speed guys. He hacked the system and then like, he just, yeah, I just had a bunch of creative players, much of 99 speed guys. He found all these simulated pressures that no one in college can protect and no quarterback can read out. And then he just,

gamed up the system. It makes me a little worried about having Michael Williams number one overall on my big board, but we'll address that in a couple months once we get to that point. Kurt, you still coached Roquan and Tyson Campbell. Yes, he did.

But the funny thing is, don't go to hell of a coach, but it's as an NFL evaluator. Yes. Right. This is the last bit on Georgia before we move on. If you look at the players who have been drafted under the Kirby smart era, the offensive players are way better than the defensive players that made the NFL like defense. You're looking at like, like I said, Raquan Tyson, Campbell, Jalen Carter. Yeah, it's about it.

Maybe Trayvon Walker gets there, but on offense, they just put Brock Bowers and the Marys Mims. Andrew Thomas went to the NFL. James Cook. Samir White's going to get a chance to play this year. That side of the ball has been pretty good in the NFL. Defense, not so much.

You got Pickens, you got A.D. Mitchell by proxy, you know, via Texas, you know. Nick Chubb. Nick Chubb. Oh, all the backs. You can just go one after another there. But no, that's a great call. I kind of feel that way. I mean, even guys like Darnell Washington, who I'll talk about later in the show. But yeah, no, I just want to kind of mention those Bulldogs because it just always feels like

I'm not seeing any of them stick to how I wanted them to. I also want to pour one out real quick for Desmond Ritter, who's got, got cut for the Cardinals and my mentions today. He was outplayed definitely this preseason by Clayton Toon. And it was classic Ritter in the first preseason game that I don't

maybe the only one I watched. So in my head, it's the first one. He drives down the field, does some nice things, almost tweets some plays, then misses a wide-open cross around third down in the red zone. And he just hangs his head. And I was like, this is him. I'm sorry. He's going to do some nice things, can run the offense well, can run a little bit. But he just can't have those bonehead mistakes, especially in the red zone, man. I think he just tightens up.

I think he just goes, I have to do it perfect. And he just messes up every single time. It's so weird because you go back and I really, I think the way that Steven Ruiz described Ritter on his quarterback rankings is just perfect. Just a sentence. There's a starting quarterback in there somewhere. Yeah. Because you watch him and he's making throws.

Still making plays, but then, dude, just so many interceptions. Interceptions and fumbles. The one that he threw in Carolina that set up their game-winning drive to lose to the 215 Carolina Panthers. You could just see. And as soon as he let that ball go, everyone knew, nope, we're done here. Can't do it anymore.

So the path for him, for me, this is how it just gets overblown over time, but I just got to learn to live with this. I was like, oh, he's a second round pick. He's my QB one in that class because that class sucked. And it was just, you know, I was like, oh, there's a viable quarterback here. And like you said, Steven had the best way to put it. I thought it was like a Diet Coke of golf with wheels.

Like, you know, that's kind of what I was picturing there. But I learned he taught me a few things, though, like about kind of QB evals. Wait, wait, does matter. Like it matters. It still matters. Even if I want to make an exception because I was like, oh, he runs a four, four, eight. I'm going to make an exception for him. Well, no. How many times you got pulled down the pocket, the fumbles like you mentioned?

I just thought other things too. It was like the pressure to sacrate carried over to the pro. So it's like, it was a good learning experience for me. But that archetype was a good lesson that you have to be safe. Like you can't have turnovers. Even if you don't get all those explosive plays, you can't just be, you know, turning it over, over and over and over. Like, so nice little learning lesson for me. I just feel like sometimes it gets a little,

on a little too much more than other guys in that class for some reason. All right. Also, better news, though, if you do like money instead of maybe Desmond Ritter stock, Yahoo Sports and NBC Sports are teaming up for a million dollar sweepstakes. All you got to do, sign up for a Yahoo Fantasy League for instant entry. Someone's got to win a million bucks.

after week one of the NFL season. Details at yahoo.com slash fantasy million. We're actually drafting for our show versus in a show versus show league on Yahoo right now as we speak with a little assistance from Stone, our producer.

but yeah that's literally as we're doing so you might hear us calling out some picks as the show goes along but what this the meat of the show is and this will be juicy we're doing the afc today we're doing the nfc on thursday i'll be with matt matt harman on thursday but we're going to go division by division the afc then team by team uh we're going to start with the team with the lowest win total so say we're doing afc out first we're starting with the titans at six and a half and then we'll work our way up

the ladder for each division, have some superlatives, you know, why I think they maybe go over, why they can go under some players, yada, yada, you hear us get going on that. So let's start us off, Chuck. We're going to go with the AFC South. We're going to go with the Titans. They are at six and a half wins. All these are from BetMGM, by the way. So yeah, check that out for your betting needs, I guess. But also we'll start with the Titans at six and a half before you make your pick kind of break down maybe why you think they could go over to start and what you'd like about the Titans, Chuck.

Um, I think they could go over, I mean, a lot of it depends on Will Levis, right? But the framework of this team in a way kind of reminds me of, uh,

Like where the Vikings were a couple of years ago when they had that insanely fraudulent run to the postseason and got knocked out by the Giants in the wild card who went on to get absolutely... Who also had an insanely fraudulent run to the postseason. Yes, and were promptly dismantled by the Eagles. I remember I covered that game, that playoff game, Giants-Eagles, and by second half, by second quarter, I was like, you know, get me out of here. This is awful. But back to the Titans, I do think when you look at this team,

You've got stars, right? DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Jeffrey Simmons. Then they have guys that they're developing on the offensive line with JT Latham and Peter Skowronski.

If all of this works out, and I think especially if you get the hits on the offensive line, that's not a bad core where you're going into games feeling like, oh man, we don't have a chance today. You got some real good NFL players. I think the depth falls off pretty quickly. Like really, really, really quickly. Yeah, it does. So Will Levis is going to have to really put on his big boy pants this year. But they have enough top-end talent where they can be feisty each week. Like 7 and 10, that kind of sounds right to me.

Yeah, that I, yeah, that really does. They, I keep coming back to this team that I like them more and more. And I think the personnel improvement you already hit on, but yeah, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd, like,

That works for any room, works for any type of offense. The offense aligned is really where I think we're going to see so much improvement with J.C. Latham, who watching this preseason looks great in the run game. Some speed guys are going to give him issues in the passing game, but man, he's a weapon in the run game. That's why they drafted him. Him and Peter Skoranski are going to be awesome on the left side. Blake Cushenberry looked great in the preseason at center. He looks worth all the money they spent on him. Defense, Simmons, McCreary, Snead, they've got so many new faces that

that I like it a lot, but also it's scary when you have a bunch of new faces because I can just...

you know, it takes a while to gel, especially on a defensive unit. You want to say, Oh yeah, just drop these guys in. They pick it up like an NBA team in a couple of weeks, but it's like, it takes time. But no, I I'm with you. I just think that they have so many good, talented players. Levis has more flashes than maybe I'd even thought before I studied him. And they have just interesting things. And I think they're going to just have so much improvement with bill Callahan. I think the offense is going to be more cohesive. I just, there's just all these like little small things that add up for me. So yeah,

Like they're kind of like a sneaky solid team, like a good bad team is kind of how I'm feeling about them right now. But yeah, but having said all that, what are some of your negatives with them? Maybe why they could go under weaknesses, maybe some things you don't like. We're going to kind of do this for every team. This is my excuse, by the way, before we get into 15 more teams to do a preview on every fricking team. So make sure I don't miss anybody. So this is a way to do it right here, but we're going to capture it, package it into an over under win total pick selections. Yeah.

Yeah, I like this. This is a good idea. We're going to be held accountable for the entire season, all the recent teams. I want to check every flag I planted. That's what it is. And then when people say, well, I didn't see you say that, you can say, well, listen to our lovely podcast. And they definitely do. They check out when you say Desmond Ritter has a small chance to be the 18th best quarterback this season. They definitely listen to that. Way too spicy. But where the Titans...

it's tough because where i looked at it earlier it kind of fixed this big spot that i had concerns over i'm getting traded for doing the trade for ernest jones from the rams because

I want to talk about him later, but we're also highlighting some younger players. And I just remembered that I put down Cedric Gray for the Titans because at the time, Kenneth Murray was in front of him. And I was like, hey, that's doable. That's possible. And Gray's a little favorite of ours. He was a little pet favorite of mine in the draft. So no, that's a good call. Was he? Yep.

And I really do think it's the depth here. Like if you're going to look at, especially a defensive line, you got Jeffrey Simmons, who is probably one of like the five best defensive tackles in the league. Maybe even higher depending on how you're ranking them. So we get underrated by the way. I would agree. So we, cause new game, there's so many good defensive tacklers right now, but he's like slowly kind of getting, you know, just drop down list where I feel like he's more of that. I think he's easy top five for me, even top four, maybe.

Well, the Titans stopped playing the playoffs. Yeah. Sorry. Sorry, Nash Vegas. You're not the national draw. But you look at Jeffrey Simmons, then beyond him, it's Sebastian Joseph Day. Like that ship sailed a few years ago. Devandre Sweat has had a really, really rough offseason in terms of just getting ready for the NFL. So I'm not really sure how much you can expect out of him.

the address situation is like man i i keep waiting for them to like give harold landry like a real number one at rusher to play with because i feel like he's ideally a really strong number two but he's gonna be playing across from arden key this year like i i i do think while like seven and ten is possible

You still might need some heroics and really heavy lifting to get there from your big players. So like we're talking about a team where the margin for error is razor thin. Cause like if Jeffrey Simmons misses time, your, your defense is cooked, dude. Yeah. That's how I feel about it. It feels weird to kind of be back with this, with the Titans, where I was like, I was starting to kind of rely on their defense and also them always being hurt as well, but also just like kind of being good and frisky. But yeah, that's,

Not a lot of depth on defense. I just had defensive holes is why I put it. And just like, and whenever you have a bunch of new faces, it's just hard to gel. Like I referred to earlier. It's just hard. It's just, especially with a new defensive coordinator. So it's just, everybody's learning at the same time. I think they're going to have good games and it's just going to be, it's going to be volatile. Even if I like a lot of the players, but the other thing too, and this is just more of my, my offensive brain always just comes back to what you can't do. Like I'm always like, all right, they don't have this. And that's running back size. Right.

And that concerns me a little because they were just about to bring up Pollard and Spears. Yeah, they're built to be bully ball. And then they got a guy that doesn't run between the tackles and Spears will run between the tackles, but he's small. So it's just a weird combo, I think, to have with those two in there. But that just has me concerned over the long term of the season because they're going to be a run and play action type of team. And also just...

What if Levis doesn't improve? What if it's just, he is boom bust and takes a bunch of sacks and it just doesn't, doesn't come along. I think he, he's better than that. He's shown some nice things in the preseason and when he played last season. And I think the coaches like them. So, you know, just have to be realistic about it. Next thing player or thing, a noun you're most excited to watch or something you're keeping track of. I'll be a little smoother asking this with other teams, but just something you're kind of keeping an eye on for yourself or just want to kind of like share with other people.

Latham and Skowronski, I think that's the key for their offense. If those guys click and Skowronski plays well and Latham can kind of, you know, I think Latham's had a good preseason, but like you can see times where like his weight

can be just a smidge of a problem for him. Big. But at the same time, like when he gets his hands on you, it's over. So if Skowronski can take that next step from last year, you got Latham already playing well, left tackle. Like he switched from right tackle to left tackle and is ahead of the curve from other guys who have done that recently and still ended up with good careers. So I think you should feel good about that. If those guys click, I think that this offense, the Brown game can kind of take off.

Yep. Really, that's it for me is offensive line improvements. And just really the whole offensive thing that they got going on. Like, that's really what it is because it's just –

It's weird in a good way. It's just this cool offensive line coach with some improvement there. You got pedigree there. And then you got also receivers. You got Levis and his thing. So, yeah, just everything there is what I'm keeping an eye on. Also, for each team, we're going to do a rookie or a second year guy. It's kind of hard with rookies sometimes that if we haven't mentioned before, or maybe we just want to double down that you're watching this year. So we can maybe mention a couple if you want to nerd out. But Chuck, who for the Titans, first year or second year guy you're watching?

there's the big 306 pound left tackle i'm i'm actually still gonna put cedric gray here nice i mean because if the titans like if you're gonna run two off-ball linebackers you got ernest jones that's a big big upgrade from what you had um even if he's just like i don't know like a b b level linebacker that's still a humongous upgrade uh so you're still looking at like

Probably him starting with Kenneth Murray to start things off because they just signed him this year. I mean, I don't want to be mean, but like Cedric Gray, if he is kind of on his game, he should be able to push Kenneth for playing time this year. So I would keep an eye on that. And also just to boundary Sweat,

Like I was kind of baffled with the 360 pound nose tackle at the top of the second round. It had a rough off season. I just don't really see where the value is there. Maybe I'm wrong. Hopefully I'm wrong because those guys are kind of novelties when it works out. It just seemed like they're moving on from like the high risk guys that they have kind of prioritized. Sometimes it turns into Jeffrey Simmons and sometimes it turns into the few other guys that they've cut recently. I like the, I like the shout out right there.

I think the linebacker situation, Ernest Jones could be interesting in this defense just because of the defense coordinator and everything, because of what Denard Wilson can do. And I think Ernest Jones kind of fits that. So I like that too. Yeah, Latham was mine. And then Josh Wiley, tight end, second-year tight end from Cincinnati. Big, long, gangly guy.

Had some nice moments. I think he could be a cool little tight end for them, especially with their offense going to do. I think they'll use tight ends a decent amount with the three receivers. So look out for him with Chig in that tight end room. All right, your pick over or under six and a half wins for the Titans. I think I'm going to go just under at six.

Now that I think about it, it's just second year quarterback, razor thin margins. It just seems like, I do think there'll be a tough out, but actually getting wins, I don't know.

I, I, I'm right there with you. I think I'm going to go over, but I'm going to say it's just more like a smidge over. It's a seven and 10 over, not like an eight or nine or playoff team. I just, I think they're just gonna be feisty every week. And yeah, and I think there'll be pretty well coached. And I'm excited to actually watch the Titans more than I thought maybe a couple months ago. All right, moving on. AFC South.

The Indianapolis Colts are next projected because actually they're tied with the other team, but at eight and a half wins. All right. With the Colts, what do you like about them? How could they hit the over? What are their strengths, their team, Chuck? If Anthony Richardson takes the next step, like there it is right there. I still think they have some, some, some problems on defense, probably in the secondary that that might be an area struggle for them, but you got Stuyken with the quarterback that he wanted.

I, they almost made the playoffs for Gardner Minshew last year, like going from the fourth pick to being literally a game away from making the playoffs is, is pretty damn impressive. It's like the base for a good team is already there. And they were kind of unusual from normal teams with a pick that high, because you still have guys like Quentin Nelson, Jonathan Taylor, DeForest Buckner. Like there's still some guys on this team. But the key here is obviously Anthony Richardson. If he,

Just turns into be like the overwhelming physical force that he's projected to be in the past and takes another step. I mean, that's going to be a pretty exciting offense. That's it. We did the top 10 offenses. I legit think that they could sniff that this year because just Richardson, the play caller, the offensive line has it solid across the board and has a little bit of depth. And so that's what I like. And also the

the play calling just because they use so many RPOs, use so much play action, use the run game as well. Tempo. Sometimes they can kind of lift the floor up of whoever's playing there. So I just, that's what, even if they have injuries, they can find ways. That's what I like about it, which is what you got matter for 17 game season and the playoffs is,

Even with the downs injury at receiver, it's that I like this beefy 11 personnel they got going. They got A.D. Mitchell. They got Alec Pierce. They got Michael Pittman. All of them are above 200 pounds. Two of them above almost like 220. And then they got Anthony Richardson at 250 plus. Jonathan Taylor at 225. They got tight ends Mo Alley-Cox. He's like 270. So it's really – it's not just a me going like, oh, yeah, beef size. It's a little bit of that.

But it matters for how they run their offense because what's cool about Steigen is just that he'll run the same run, all their receivers just block. And then he'll run the same run, and then they'll run a bubble RPO. Then they'll run the same run, and then they'll tag two slants on the RPO. So he'll just package different things out with the same runs and

What's cool with this kind of big size receivers is that they can block the head up stuff. But when they run like a bubble and you sound the preseason game where they run the bubble against the Bengals, they're

to A.D. Mitchell and there's out there there's Pierce and Kyle Granson blocking for him and he gets 12 yards on just a bubble because they're just road grading the quarter like these plus size receivers and these tight ends it's kind of yeah they're interchangeable they can work in the slot they can work outside so yeah with Angie they're interesting combined with that and all the

Everyone saw him throw on sidearm, and I thought that actually was workable sidearm throws. He's working on stuff and changing arm slots, and it's actually pretty cool to see. Yeah, that's why you've got to be excited about this team, because that's what's going to lead this team. And I'll get maybe to the negatives about some of the defensive stuff. But the defense, I think, will be fine stopping the run, maybe not stopping the pass. But I'm pretty optimistic about the Colts this year. Flip side.

Why could they go under? Why should we be worried about the Colts? What could be the downside of this team? You might end up in a spot where you're relying too much on a rookie edge rusher that's trying to cover for, yeah, with Laetitia Latu, trying to cover for a secondary that, you know, everyone has said they kind of really needed to improve this offseason and

They didn't really. They just said, okay. They said, okay, we're going to roll it back again. Gus Bradley had been doing the same thing since 2009 and it's fine. So I really do worry that

They could find themselves in shootouts. And I'm not sure that's where you want to be with Anthony Richardson having so little NFL experience so far. But then again, like even in the limited action, we still got the Rams game last year where he's making big boy plays all over the field to keep them in the game.

So it's doable, but man, it just seems kind of like the Titans a little bit to me, lesser so, because I think they're more complete on offense, where you're like, man, you got some dudes on defense, but it could get ugly in a hurry if your front's not winning. And I think it's fair to be concerned about that. I don't think...

Like Grover Stewart's not quite the player that he used to be. Quidipe is just like the biggest NPC edge ruster in the NFL. That break will happen one day. When he got his option picked up, I was like, I have no opinion on this whatsoever, which is probably not a good thing. He's the DJ Humphries of edges. Yes, yes. Because I had a bunch of people ask me, like people who watch football, is Quidipe good? I was like, I don't know. I don't know. Is he? It just seems like it might be

a little bit too much for this defensive line to overtake these games and find the cover for the secondary that they need. Kenny Moore's still a good player. Outside of that, they just need some of these guys to develop. They're just so, so young in the secondary, and I guess they just want to get better with reps. That's really it. It's just the defensive back end. Are they going to get shootouts, or is this just how they're rolling? Gus Bradley's kind of run the same defense as always. He has some tweaks, but it's kind of the same stuff.

that usually requires some dudes on the outside because they have to play singled up so much. I like Juju Brents a little bit, but he's kind of incomplete. He was just like flashes, so who knows? And yeah, they kind of just decided they're going to run him back and I guess hopefully improve on just bet on traits. If Anthony Richardson flatlines, of course, that's going to be a negative and also just kind of like, oh shoot, what do we do now? I don't think it'll happen, to be honest. I really do think that just even some of the stuff they use like

Even all the RPO stuff, he throws it so quickly and gets the ball on the guys so quickly that they can just start running. Just little things. That's what's really nice about having an all-world arm, like a generational arm strength and actually better accuracy than people think. But yeah, if he gets flatlines or gets hurt again, they have to go to Flacco. Yeah, that's going to stink. If they don't get anything out of Latu, he's just beating up on backup offensive linemen in the preseason. I do like...

I didn't like him for everybody, but I liked him for the Colts because they have so much big guys with size that maybe aren't the best pass rushers. There's pocket pushers. And now they got a guy that can do some stuff. So it worked for them really well. But yeah, that's, that's really it. Like it's, I really do think this offense got some high end stuff in store for him this year, which is wait until they get some game designs in there, but just whatever this defense is, it's a big question mark for me.

All right. So what is something or a player or something that you are keeping track of this year? Excited to watch.

uh juju brents is one of them all right yeah because he's a guy that had some hype coming out like i think physically looks like your ideal cornerback that you want a gus bradley corner yeah right a gus bradley corner i was i was thinking i was because i felt like we just fell so hard to that meme like in the in like the mid 2010s oh we need the six three corners i was trying to avoid that but yeah he looks like 32 inch arms yeah 32 inch arms you know big dude

And the funny thing is, like, you know, this secondary is so young, but Juju Brents is like the highest drafted player of the unit. He was drafted in the second round. Everyone else is third round or below. Looks like they're starting Jalen Jones at nickel, who was drafted in the seventh round last year. So they're going to need Juju Brents to move up to a second round price tag immediately. I don't know if he can do it, but I will be watching and see and find out.

Yeah. I know. That's, I think everybody is because that's how I am with him. I'm like, are you something like, are you alive? Like, are you something? But yeah, no, great call there. Uh, but I, for me, it's just the entire offense, which is going to be, that's kind of how I am anyways. But it,

I think this run game is going to be cool. I think just the play action stuff is going to be cool. I just want to see Richardson's growth. I want to see what Steichen, the run game stuff he's going to implement because I don't think he's going to back away from using it even after Richardson's injury. So just the entire offense in general. All right. Rookie or second year player that you are watching this year?

I like to a lot to an 80 Mitchell chalk picks first and second round picks, but especially with the Josh Downs injury, 80 Mitchells is going to matter. And on the flip side, on defense, they kind of need a lot to to be not not an ace, but to show some real, real deal flashes this year. They do. Yeah. Can you get?

can you be an 8-10 sack guy every year? That's what I always show like life of it. Maybe not the Vic Beasley rookie year where you're like, eh. But, I like not too much better. But I had Juju Brandts actually as mine. And then, yeah, A.D. Mitchell just because I'm,

They're really using them. They have to right now, but I'm excited. I think this offensive system is going to be good for him and just how they use these guys. And I'm telling you, like, watch the Colts and watch how big they are. Their receivers are just so big, and they have some juice. A.D. Mitchell is one of them. I think it's going to be a really cool season from him. Yeah.

Oh, last thing I have on Colts young guys. Talk about the secondary real quick. Like four of their guys have been drafted. Four of their starters have been drafted since 2020. So the only person who's not on a rookie deal there is Kenny Moore. As far as the starter goes, Juju Brents was drafted last year. Jalen Jones was drafted last year. Nick Cross was drafted the year before that. These guys have not played a lot of football together. So we will see what happens there. And all the backups. Rodney Thompson, Thomas, who I actually kind of like, but seventh rounder.

Jalen Simpson, fifth rounder. Mike Abraham, sixth rounder. It's not like there's a lot of pedigree here. And usually a corner is one of those positions that's like, all right, oh, all pro team, first rounder. Pro bowler, first rounder. Pro bowler, first rounder. Like it's not a lot of Richard Shermans walking through that door. All right, your pick for the Colts. They're at eight and a half wins over or under Chuck.

I'm going to go over. I think that this team can make the playoffs. They almost did last year. I think Anthony Richardson to be a good deal better than Gardner Minshew. And I know that some people were complaining about his performance against the Bengals. Personally, I thought it was fine. Maybe you're pissed off, has some throws towards the end of his time in the game. But, dude, he started off red hot. I thought he looked good. Decisive, accurate, arm strength was cooking.

I think he might have just enough where they can go like 10-7 again and make the playoffs. I think the offense is going to be pretty good. Yep. I'm right there with you. Over 8.5 wins. I'm excited about the Colts this year. We'll see how the defense is, but the offense, I think, is going to be really, really fun. Richardson, dark, dark horse MVP pick. I might be a year early on that, but it's just...

Even he can handle the RPO stuff, which is not something I thought you can really. I was curious if they could live off that, but he can. I think his accuracy is plenty fine for it. And just getting the ball quick, I think he makes really good decisions. He mitigates sacks. I think this run game is going to be good. This was an order line top 10 run game easy, even without Jonathan Taylor last year for most of the year. So, yeah, I just think they got a lot cooking.

all right moving on or moving up i should say we got the also eight and a half wins is the jacksonville jaguars chuck jaguars why could they go over eight and a half wins uh it's like i keep flipping between like trevor lawrence and the defense but i think for now i'll say the defense only because i feel like they're better set up for success than the offense is um

I think this defense, I mean, they were pretty good last year. So I don't really see why if you're upgrading a defensive coordinator or Ryan Nielsen, why that couldn't be the case where you have a pretty good year on defense. I just think the big thing is going to be health in the secondary. Like they need Tyson Campbell to come out and actually play some of these games, especially now that they paid him. But you're looking at a defense that has Josh Allen as a strong number one,

Trayvon Walker as a quality number two. You've got Tyson Campbell at corner.

The safety room, I think, is pretty underrated with Andre Sisco, Antoine Johnson, and who did they sign from the Packers? That's Darnold Savage. Darnold Savage, yeah. Darnold Savage, right. Yeah, if you can move Darnold Savage. I'm the only person in America excited about that, by the way. Seriously. You can only ask him to do one thing, but that one role is pretty good. I actually think that Sisco and Antonio Johnson are kind of the perfect safeties for him to play with because

they can do some things that he just can't. But the defense, I'm pretty excited to watch him win this one. I think that's going to be the week-to-week strength of this team, even if the offense will have some moments. God, I actually am coming around that offense after watching the preseason just because Brian Thomas looks so much better

further along than I was anticipating and pretty dang good. Trevor also looks freaking incredible right now. I know it's backups. I know it's preseason and all that. I'll get to the negatives in a sec before I throw some more cold water on all this, but

This defense could be really, really cool. Like, I really think Andre Sisco is going to have a big year. I think the front and the personnel up front, like match Nielsen and what he prefers from his personnel perfectly, including Walker, even guys like, God, I won't say his full name properly now, Josh Hines Allen. Yeah.

Because I always wanted to say Josh Allen. I forgot about that. Yeah, Josh Hines Allen. But all these guys, it's just that those guys may not make sense for other places that want many bendier guys, not pocket pusher types. But this defense that does so many simulated pressures, does so many twists and just movement after the snap, these guys are great for it because they can kind of just do all that and

do stuff in the middle where they can slam inside and push guards and centers that are a little shorter armed and stuff like that. So I, I'm, yeah, I'm pretty, pretty excited about this defense. And yeah, I think the offense, I, I've been harsh on it because it's just fragile. And then maybe I'll, I'll just get my negatives out in the way. It's a very fragile, very fragile offense that if one injury could really just do a lot of bad things, I think they're a little,

more incubated than they were maybe in prior years. Hopefully they are because this is, you know, you're supposed to be building better rosters around your guys where, okay, maybe this guy can play inside and out at receiver like a Gabe Davis or if Christian Kirk gets hurt or something like that. The offensive front,

Doesn't have a ton of depth. And also, even when they are healthy, they're not great. They're more average-ish overall. Even if Harrison, that right tackle, is great and a really good player, that's just what has me concerned. Anytime offensive line questions are one of your main things, that...

kind of limits how high I'm going to get about you because I've seen that story too many times, no matter how much else there is. But having said all that, this defense I think is going to be reliable. The run game will be a little bit boom-busty, but it's just that this offense could have some rough weeks, some low-variance weeks. We'll also have some high highs just based on injuries and also the offensive play calling. That kind of spilled out my whole thing, but why maybe for you, could they go under maybe some negatives with them?

I think we put this perfectly a couple weeks ago when we said that Jaguars are an offense that is going to shoot long tubes. You're going to dribble into the paint. You're going to have a double team, and you're going to do the fadeaway over two people that are bigger than you. Iso Joe. It's the Iso Joe offense. That's right. It might look ugly at times, but the hope here is

that brian thompson can get you enough open threes that maybe maybe it's it's not quite as constipated as it might appear uh right now and quite honestly like it's been a public story at this point like they have to figure out what they're gonna do with doug peterson and press taylor um doug doesn't seem to be interested in calling plays at all but he probably should probably should unless he just doesn't care about getting fired which it would be the practical way to view working

Yeah, it's still weird to me. It's like he's like, yeah, I don't know. Especially because day one he called plays and then he's like, no, I don't want it anymore. And actually, maybe I might want it. They...

I will say they, in the preseason, you only can take a little, little kernels here. They had little things they were doing that was like, okay, did you learn your lessons? Meaning Luke Farrell was out there a lot. And the fact that Luke Farrell is a key player of the Jaguars offense tells you everything you need to know because he's their back. He's their second tight end. They're blocking tight end. He's actually pretty good at in that role, but it's just that he is key because Evan Ingram can't do certain things. He can't block. He's more of a glorified receiver and everything, but that's just kind of what this,

offense has gotten made out to be. So, uh, yeah, I, I, I only can get so high with it, even if I'm a little higher than maybe I was like a month ago. Um,

All right. What's something you keep track of this year or something that you're excited about with the Jags? I am excited to see the steps that Trayvon Walker takes under Nielsen. I keep trying to tell Falcons fans this. He squeezed way more than what was there in Atlanta last year. That was not a talented defense. And, you know, look at EPA and success rate. They still rank pretty high. DBOA, they were 24th.

you know that's yeah there's a lag there's a lag with dvoa i've noticed like yeah just because it's so much based on the you know defenses or opponents that you go against which matters but yeah there's just a little lag yeah they they did give up like almost 50 points in the saints at the end of the season but this is just it's this is a way more talented defense than what nielsen had in our

in Atlanta. And if we're going to go back to, you know, what people say about him with the Saints, he's a, he's an evaluator and a developer of defensive line talent.

That you should be pretty excited if you're looking at Trayvon Walker and saying, because there's still a lot athletically that's untapped there. And this could be the guy to get it out. We already see Mason Smith have a pretty good preseason after doing absolutely nothing at LSU, except, you know, for getting hurt in the Florida State game a couple of years ago, celebrating. But he's bounced back. I didn't really know if that was possible for him, but he looks like a way better player already. So Nielsen could be a dude. If with...

If Clayus Campbell could get six and a half sacks and 17 QB hits last year, 10 TFLs, like without being able to move, get out of a stance, like Trevon Walker and this defense should be able to stack some numbers in it because it should just give them a straight line into the right spots. It's just he's going to put even the linebackers who, you know, Foy is Foy and he's kind of an empty calories guy, but he's solid. He's like a nice baseline starter for you.

I don't think Devin Lloyd is, he's too up and down for me. He's too all over the place. This defense is going to be so much better for him because they're going to just go, Hey, we're running a simulated pressure here. Go get the quarterback. Like he doesn't have to think he just let him run and go. He has some pass rushing chops. It got way overblown when he was coming out of college, but they're in there. And this type of defense is perfect for him where they can just find ball, get ball. It just limit his role. And I think that's so much better for him. So yeah, it's just, their picks are just always so funny because it's just like, you look at the roster. I'm like, all right,

Strange, are you doing anything? Tank Bixby? No? Okay. All right, never mind, because that leads us into rookies, second-year players to watch. I think the easy ones are their first round. Anton Harrison, Brian Thomas for me. Harrison's a star at right tackle. Thomas is going to come along this year. But do you have any other guys? Because some of the other picks already kind of feel like they're watched. It's like they're second year. Miles Antonio Johnson. I really like him. Oh, yeah. Texas A&M. All right.

He fell to the fifth round, and it looks like he's going to be in line to start this year at one of the safety spots. That's safety. Which I think is good. I was kind of surprised he fell to the fifth round because I really liked his coverage ability on some of the bigger tight ends that he saw in college. But I think you pair him with Sisko, and if you can get the help from Tyson Campbell and you leave...

Darnell Savage in the role that was meant for him. Like this could be a good secondary. I don't know what Ronald Darby has left in the tank. That second cornerback spot is probably going to be a little bit dangerous for them, but I, man, I just, I can't get over like, this is a way more talented defense than the one that Nielsen was just coordinating. So yeah,

I'd be pretty pumped about this about the Jacks fan. You're like, I'm telling you guys, this is a better DB room. Yeah, no, it really is. No, that's a good shot with Johnson. And like I said, I'm excited about Cisco and Campbell got paid and everything, but he's, you know, he's a, he's a one, he's a true CB one. How high is it? The bat it's up for debate, but he's still very good corner that deserve to get paid. So your pick.

Do you have any? I feel on this one. This one was tough. I think I'm going to go over nine. I went over two. Let's go nine and eight. Yeah, let's go nine and eight. One win over. Hopefully they just don't have the most embarrassing collapse of franchise history like they did last year.

it feels like just yeah nothing surprised me with this franchise just this is how the jaguar show remember i was going on my rant the other day about being a mariners fan all the games i went to like guys getting hurt and everything i was a jacks fan for a little bit too so i've had some i've had some great team memories and curses that i've had i got that guy for a really lost dude because i have some somewhat some good memories with anything i

All right. Moving on to, yeah, I was also over for the Jags. Going on to the last team in the AFC South, the team that is favored at nine and a half wins, and that is the Houston Texans, the defending champions of the AFC South.

All right, Chuck, you look at the Houston Texans. What do you like about them? Why could they go over nine and a half wins? Dude, CJ Stroud, he's got the goods. They went from the second overall pick to a playoff team and won a playoff game against the best defense in football. So I think that's a good starting point.

we'll see what happens with Stephon Diggs, but if he's willing to take the backseat to Nico Collins and the offensive line improves, that could be easily one of the best offenses. You've got offensive coordinator continuity. CJ Stroud's good. Wide receiver is pretty good. We'll see what Joe Mixon has in the tank. If the offensive line takes a step forward, they're going to score a lot of points. Yeah, even because their offense, run game stunk last year. Offensive line was not good. Had injuries. All the bad stuff.

That happens to offenses that usually sinks them. And Stroud was just like a dude. And every time he played, other than the Jets game, which was like the one where he was just getting, I mean, folded in half, which is like, you know, that's what everyone was kind of happening against the Jets. Yeah, it's Stroud. It's Stroud, the pass catchers, namely Nico Collins, who is a star star. Anyone think

that keeps going with digs and tanked out. It's like, no, no, it's Nico. It's Nico should one. And those guys are auxiliary targets. And even they're running too tight and looks a lot like this is a cow Shanahan offense, even with Bobby Slug. So everyone that thinks it's just going to like, oh, they got Stefan Diggs. They're going to just pass it every single down.

They're going to run a lot and they're going to run out two tight ends and then they're going to do play action and then they'll pass on third down as the game goes along. That's just kind of the formula. But I like to upgrade at run back Joe Mixon, even if it's not prime mixing, it's still an improvement of what they had and on

on defense, I'll get to negatives, but they have a pass rush and they've Derek Stingley. That that's not bad. And especially what I think this team's going to score some points. It's good to have a pass rush as opposed to, Oh, we stopped the run. We can't stop anybody through the air. At least we have a pass rush that if teams have to chase points, start passing against us, that's a formula we want to go for Freud. So they're going to be an exciting team. They just have a lot of fun, young players. They have stars at the premium spots, receiver, left tackle quarterback, uh,

corner, all the spots that you want to have a guy, they have a star there. So it's a fun team. Why could they go under the Texans? Some weaknesses, things you don't like about the Houston Texans this year. I have a couple. Yeah. You talk about the defense. I, especially like in the front seven, honestly, maybe even on the back end too, because you're going to be pretty young, pretty young. I think the middle of the defense is pretty weak.

Especially a linebacker. Yeah, it's a spine, man. That's it for me, too. You're just kind of dealing, especially a defensive tackle, you're just dealing with journeymen like Foley, Fadukaski, Mario Edwards, Tim Settle. These are just guys. Foley was pretty good with the Jets, but it feels like he's kind of on the back nine of where he's at now. And then you pair that with the linebacker room of Christian Harris, Aziz Alshayar, Henry Totuo. Hey, Toe.

Because Aziz is, I was interested in him like two years ago, you know, and then he gets away from Fred Warner and you're like, oh no, you're just not that guy. It's fine. Yeah, it's just fine.

I'd like it better if he had a better guy next to him. Yeah, it was fine when he had Fred. Right. I wrote him on a breakout thing, and that's what I said. I was like, he's my guy by default, but I'm saying he's like a linebacker two. That's going to have to be one. It's the spine of the defense. That's it. Which is kind of what it was for me last year. But yeah, Z's I'll share. It's a lot of players I like individually. But the fact that they kind of built it out of them, I get a little...

So as these I'll share Jimmy Ward, who I really like, but is never healthy. And it was best as a slot player, Jalen Petrie, who I really like. And, and, but he's best as a slot player and move around, which I think they'll use them a little bit as, but Harry Toto is unplayable. You can't defend the pass. And I'm not as high on Christian Harris as others are. So,

So you mentioned the defensive tackles too, is that I think teams are going to be able to run on this team. And I think that's just going to be an issue that they'll have the whole year just because of who they have and what style that D'Amico Ryan's likes to play zone quarters, rotate the three. That works great when you have a cool defensive line and Fred Warner cleaning up every mess. So I think they have to get into boat races. Like every game, I think with the Texas could be a race, like a sprint sprint to 30.

And I think that's what they have to play for is maybe that's just a weakness I have with them. So that's a thorn, though. When you play good teams, the good teams can run the ball. So that's why I get a little hesitant with how far they maybe could go in the long run. Spoilers. All right. Player or thing that you're most excited or something that you're keeping track of with this team? Desmond King was cut today by the Texans, which is putting...

Another member of the Georgia Bulldogs defense. Yes. Into the starting lineup and also potentially another rookie safety into the starting lineup or at least like, you know, starter level reps. Yeah. Right. Right. Kamari Lassiter, Caden Bullock, their second and third round picks this year. That is going to be huge. Just like the, the, you know, the spine of their defense. Cause if we're expecting the spine of the defense to be weak, plus you're throwing two rookie DVs out there,

We'll just have to see what that looks like. Because I think that with rookie DBs, you just got to give them a learning curve. Because I think we've seen a lot of guys be terrible as rookies and then kind of figure it out. It's really tough. And it might look rough for them this year.

Yeah, you got to kind of want to take their lumps. It's hard. It's hard. It's a hard position that they learn. It's really hard. You got to learn. Yeah, it just layers added with Stroud in this offense. Like Stroud, he's so cool. Like preseason is so much fun to watch with him because it's like, oh, wow, you're already better. Yeah, that happens when you're really young and seem like you really love the game and work at it. So I'm excited just to watch his ascension. And can this just run game be workable? Yeah.

Like at all, like in Bobby slow, kind of like figure out the formula for him. Like he's going to pound it. Like, I just want to keep emphasizing that with people, like he's going to do it, but it's just how they make it work for them as opposed to maybe copying, maybe his past spots. And I think he he'll work at it, but we'll see. I'm going to guess for rookie second year players. Is that Lassiter? Yeah. And then I haven't thrown juice scrugs in there. The bout of juice. I had him written down to him.

Yeah, I just want to see. Yeah, this other than Stroud. I should make that exception other than him. Yeah, juice cracks. I just want to see what he's up to this year. I thought he was going to be center only in this league. They put him a little bit guard. See him back at center. But yeah, I liked him. He was a shrine bowl vet. All right. So they are at nine and a half wins. The Texans over or under nine and a half over offense. Too good.

I think I'm over too. I think I'm over for all these teams. I think AFC South's a little bit sneaky good. Way better than people are realizing. I think it's a lot of imperfect teams, which I think makes it a lot of fun. It's also fun, like good offense, bad defense combos. Should make for some good games.

All right. So that is one division as we are, what, 50 minutes in? Oh, man. We're going to have to edit some stuff here. I told you I wanted to make it meaty, but we'll take a quick break for this marathon of a show, the Irishman of previews. We'll be back with the AFC West and East after this. Forget one-size-fits-all diets. With Noom, you get a personalized weight loss plan that's tailored to your lifestyle. Have cravings? Food FOMO?

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All right, we are back. We're going to squeeze some of these categories together. Titan. Titan. Couldn't help ourselves. Couldn't help. I couldn't help myself. I had to get this all in. So just for time, so we don't go full Irishman with this preview pod. Go over four hours here. So we're going to go with the AFC West, starting with the Broncos, who are at five and a half wins. Chuck, how you feeling about the Broncos? Why could they go over five and a half? Why could they go under some younger players that you like? Everything you're thinking about the Broncos right now with this year.

Why could they go over? What? I mean, okay, the defense is not totally talentless. You have Patrick Stanton, who I think we both agree, that's cornerback in football. I think the only player who even has an argument right now is Sloss Gardner. We'll see what Derek Stingley has to say this season. The defensive line is...

Like you have a bunch of, you know, like C to like B players. Yeah. On there. Zach Allen, John Franklin Myers. I actually think that's a pretty big pickup for them. Cause I mean, if I'm going to say it's a big loss for the Jets, it's gotta be a pretty big pickup for the Broncos. And then DJ Jones, who is like the most C plus nose tackle slash three technique body ever. Yeah.

I really struggle to see where they get over five, though. Unless those guys just black out. You get something from Riley Moss. I mean, that'd be funny. Let's just be real. He's a white cornerback. Start for him, isn't he?

What? It's Sertan and Moss. Yeah. It's exactly. If you told me in 2002 that the Broncos would be starting Sertan and Moss, I'd be like, oh. Super Bowl. Oh, wow. I got to get to practice and watch that. And it would make sense. Riley Moss' kid went to, you know, Moss' kid went to Iowa. Oh, yeah. Okay. Because he grew up in Minnesota. Okay. I get that. Yeah. No, no. Different. It's a different Moss. Yeah.

And maybe they can get the over if they can run the ball. You know, Javante Williams and Audra Gaston may have a good season. But I don't know. I think that's kind of a crazy question, even though it's part of the format for this. Consolidated format. What I came back to is, like, how could they hit this over was, you've seen the Imaginationland episode with South Park? Oh, of course. Like a trillion times. And then they call on Mel Gibson. Yeah.

And they say...

You can say what you want about Mel Gibson, but the son of a bitch knows story structure. That's how I feel about Sean Payton and calling plays. It's like, say what you want about Sean Payton, son of a bitch can call some plays. That's exactly how I feel with the Broncos. It's just that this run game, I think, is going to be good. I can already see it in the preseason where they have the bootleg stuff. They have the run plays. They have Javante Williams, Julian McLaughlin, and then now Audra Kestame. Hey, that's a fun little rotation to pound the rock. So,

I like that. Of course, we've had plenty of thoughts on the Bo next off, and I'm sure we're having a moment. And then defenses, I have defensive curiosity. Sertan, Zach Allen, DJ Jones, and then who else steps up? Is it Browning? Is it Benito? Do any of these other guys step up? Because they have some, is it Moss? They have some interesting players, but how is it as a cohesive whole? And then can we build this, can the offensive line be...

It's solid. Like, and I think the Peyton's going to use them in a smart way and not mess anything up, anything up with them. Like where it's just like put them in bad spots, but it's not like an overwhelming unit. But I think again, that's going to be their high baseline, but it's just, you know, the passing game, a little worried about, like, I think it's just going to have to be like, I don't know what Nick's is going to, if he's going to move the needle for him and he's a rookie anyways, it doesn't matter what rookie it is. He still is a rookie anyway.

Like, what is this passing game? Is it hyper specific? Like, is it all going to be relying on Peyton's ball plays and his designs? Like that always just leaves me a little hesitant about how high I can get with the team. So that's maybe why I'm a little negative on it. I've been trying to figure out like what my preseason take is for like rookie quarterbacks.

Because I do feel a little hypocritical saying like, oh my God, this Bill Nix stuff, whatever. And be like, oh my God, Drake May, four hours a day, look how well he played. But here's what I've said along. I only care about rookie preseason quarterbacks if you are a great athlete.

Like if you're someone with a big arm, it's going to take big chances down the field. I would like to see you do that in the preseason. I don't like the 15 for 21, six yards an attempt. It's just not a rare skill set. I think it's going to make their offense super compressed.

uh i don't i i don't really know how the receiver room mesh as well a bit beyond courtless sudden how they mesh with bo nicks with marvin mims i'm not really sure how that one how that one turns out but i i do think they'll kind of be able to run the ball a little bit i don't think this is like comically bad you know one in 16 worst team ever but over five seems like a stretch to me isn't that weird like i don't feel bad about this setup it's just that i don't

I'm not moved. I think the baseline's decent. It's just that I don't think there's anything. The floor and the ceiling are right next to each other. That's how I feel. I feel like I'm in the Shire. But that's when I look at this team. It's just everything kind of feels scattershot. It feels like a rebuilding team. It does. But with Sean Payton at the helm, this is exactly how I feel. And a quarterback that, like you said, it's just that...

He hasn't moved me so far and just didn't move me as a college prospect either. So it's kind of a TBD with all that. Any rookie second year guys you're excited about? I'm excited about Estimé. Estimé, Riley Moss.

i'm interested to see how this marvin nimsing goes but i i just feel like he might not be a good fit for where they're moving forward yeah and then moved up for him just so weird so uh it's at five and a half wins you going over or under under like probably four and thirteen four and thirteen five and twelve that's fair that feels fair yeah i'm also going under with them moving us on

The next stop at six and a half wins is the Las Vegas Raiders, not the Vegas Raiders, like the Vegas Golden Knights, the Las Vegas Raiders, which locals do not like, by the way. They say that's kind of like a local thing. You don't say Las Vegas. You just say Vegas. Do Vegas locals care about the Raiders?

no not really it's all people from la yeah that's what i thought it's all people now from la that come in here no they love their golden knights though they basically are kicking like they're not even letting the a's take root here they're just like no like the locals they just like no you're not doing anything for you guys it's been been a whole mess but raiders how are you feeling about the raiders i know you like the defense but what else we got um

Brock Bowers is awesome. Cool tight ends. Look pretty good in the preseason. Still think the roster and draft pick allocation is a little questionable. Having a first round pick and a second round pick on tight end, back-to-back years. As a neutral, I love it. It's not my picks. It's not my money. Not my money.

I think it's in a world where like, okay, in a vacuum where I can not look at quarterback, I would be kind of excited to watch this offense.

But they are starting Gardner Minshew. You know what's funny as a joke? Not even as a joke, honestly. I put Aiden O'Connell as one of my players, one of my young Raiders players to watch this season because it's not impossible that we'd see him back in the starting lineup at some point. Antonio Pierce looked like the most defeated man in the world when he was like, well, I wanted it to turn out well for both of them, and it just didn't. So he just picked... It's not like he just flipped a coin to pick Gardner Minshew. I mean, whatever. It's the same thing.

It's the battle of D versus fault. Battle's default. Like, that's just kind of what it went down to. I know. I just... It's something we've kind of hinted at the Raiders a few times this summer. And it's just like, Max Crosby and Christian Wilkins are fun. I really like that. Patrick Graham, I think, is a good coach. And you had him as a top 10 defense. I'd like the defensive work overall. And then I look at the offense and...

Oh man. The tight, like Michael, if you told me a couple of years ago that Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers would be on the same team somewhere, I'd be like, I love the NFL. Like, that's so awesome. Who are they with? Like the Rams? Who's a Shanahan? The Shanahan get them? Like who got on the dolphin? It's like the Raiders. All right. What you got Getsy?

That's the way I'm like, all right, please do something cool. They have powers of fullback sometimes. All right, we'll see what happens there. But yeah, you just look at Gardner Minshew, a quarterback. You only can get so excited about that. He's a high-end backup. We know what he is. And then Tavante Adams, I was hoping for maybe some fan fiction three-way trade to happen with the IU thing and something like that. So was he.

I bet everybody was. I know. Everybody was keeping track of what shorts he was wearing at practice, just to see if he was... Are those travel shorts? Nothing happened there. O-line depth also.

just kind of and just this whole team the raiders team you know with the 35 member staff that they have because they're paying three steps right now it's just a it's just hard to get overwhelmed by the raiders because it's just like what what path are you going on is this just a band-aid is this something you guys are building on they have cool things but just just feel so incomplete with them even the defense which i like it's still incomplete you know

I, I, I, I've, I've talked about probably like five shows now, but I love Wilkins and Crosby. Like I am, I am locked in on that. The Ironmen. The Ironmen. And they're both good. Like I, I think they'll play well off of each other too. The Iron and Black. It's not the Silver and Black. The Iron and Black. Yeah. Yeah. There we go. You guys can have it.

You still have the dice roll with Tyree Wilson. Maybe it's worth just paying attention to that. Have you mentioned him? Their first round pick from last year. Have you mentioned him yet? I have no idea what to think about. I have no thoughts on him. I'm just like, week 10, I'll decide what he is. He just looked lost. Lost. A lot of times. So slow off the snap. Yeah. But like, I don't know. I love them coming out.

I thought he was an alien, but maybe I was wrong. Yeah, he's a freak. I just, you know, just got to speed up the process a little bit. The secondary, I think is pretty interesting. I, I, I don't know like where I'm on on Jack Jones. He kind of feels like, like a diet, like a Sante Samuel sometimes where it's like,

You know, the old Asante Samuel, I mean. Yeah. Asante Samuel senior. Senior. Yeah. Where it's like, yeah, I might not make a whole lot of good plays every game, but I might make one that can get us a ball back like every once in a while. So you pair that with the defensive line. We'll see what shakes out a linebacker. I still like this defense, even though they're incomplete. But, you know, I think that's really when you're looking at like the fringe top 10 range of defenses, that's probably what you're looking at where it's it's

It's a bunch of dudes and then some incompleteness. The problem is, I think when you mesh it all together with the offense, probably not looking at a very good team this year, which is a shame because you tell me I get an offense with Devontae Adams and Brock Barrett. I'm seated. But no, not for this. I know. That's...

I'm going to peek at them over the first month and just see if there's a heartbeat anywhere on this team. But it's just hard to get overwhelmed by. I already mentioned my kind of rookie second year guys, Mayer and Browers. Mayer looked really good this preseason, at least when I watched. So that's like, oh, yeah, you're like a really good tight end prospect yourself. And we just kind of forget about you. It's kind of what happens when you go to a team like the Raiders. That kind of stinks. Your pick, I went with the under.

I just can't trust. It's just the quarterback. I just, yeah, it's so incomplete to me, even if I do. I don't hate it. I just don't like it. It's just, there's a lot I like, and it's just overall, I just don't like it. So that's why I'm just going with the under there. I will go over. Yeah. Only because, and I mean just over, only because I do think they're better than Broncos, and they can compete with the Chargers for this year. Chiefs, no. No, no, no.

But the rest of the division, like the non-Chiefs teams, they could win those games. They're closer to the Chargers than I think people realize. Yeah. Yeah. Like, it's just, even though Herbert's five tier is better, it's just that, you know, the rest of the roster, just kind of both made out. Speaking of which, great segue. The Chargers are next on this list at eight and a half wins.

Man, I feel like we've kind of glossed over a little bit with the Chargers so far because it's just kind of, I don't know. This is a great time to kind of check back in with them. It feels like Herbert got hurt and was just like, all right, see you guys in a little bit. So with the LA Chargers, where are you at with them, Chuck, after your first trip to LA last week? Wow, it was a good time. It was a good time.

I just think they're still a year away. The thing that kind of signifies where people were at with the Chargers this offseason was when people were legitimately upset that they didn't pick Malik Nabors over Joe Ault. And I'm like, guys, you have the fifth pick. This is not a good team. How did Herbert end his season?

That's what I just kept coming back to. Hurt. Because your son's back. I feel like a lot of people thought this Chargers team was one piece away. For some reason, that piece was a rookie wide receiver. I don't know where that was coming from. But the thing was, you needed both. Yeah, you need neighbors. You need a receiver. You also need an offensive tackle. So, you know, we'll see how Joe Alt progresses. He's kind of doing like the reverse Latham going from left to right.

tackle this year. The reverse Latham. The reverse Latham. I was like, yeah, I knew exactly what you meant. My brain was just like, yep, yep, he is doing a reverse Latham. I could have said the Penne Sewell, but no, he's doing the reverse Latham. Yeah,

I don't know. This team lost 63 to 21 to the damn Raiders. And we just were just like, I don't know about that last year. I don't expect that to happen again, but it just goes to show this team is still an offseason away. I think that, you know, who they hire Jesse mentor for the defensive coordinator. I think he's probably going to be good because I kind of trust Harbaugh's eye with that stuff. But I don't know if he has the horses for that this year.

Yeah. He's a full year away. They, they need to have to restock so much there. It's not just an offense. Yeah. It's, it was such a stars and scrubs roster and that, and then they just got rid of some of the stars. They got to rid of, rid of two of their high paid receivers, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, JC Jackson never did anything. Anyways, they're trying to make sure Derwin James is still playable. They're like, you were good. Right. Just like 18 months ago. Like, okay, we're making sure that you're still good. Yeah.

But it's the same issues that the pass roster have. It's what we just talked about. No spine of the defense.

I really like Junior Coulson. He's been about some injuries in preseason and everything, but hopefully that's a guy that can help out the middle of the defense. But again, that's only so much. This isn't Luke Keighley getting dropped in there. Junior Coulson was like a linebacker one by default kind of on my board. He's kind of like a Nick Bolton knockoff, but it's not like he's coming in as this whole, yeah, he's a real going to be the quarterback of the defense. He's going to be a nice solid player for him. They need about four more of those guys. And

they're going to probably have to address Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa sometime soon, you know, not this year, but after this year. So, okay. After this year, we're going to go right back to square one. Yeah. So that's just how the roster is. They're going to be really well coached the past game. I'm curious to see, you know, Greg Roman's not the most exciting past game guy, but he's really good in the run game. Harbaugh's good in the run game. They're going to pound the fricking rock. They have some horses up front for it, but,

Passing is going to be up and down. I think Herbert's not 100%. He's come off an injury that's going to linger. So we'll see there. We'll see some QB run game, though. I'm curious to see if they do that with a little Herbo. So that's it. Minter, Harbaugh, I want to see some well-coached guys. They lack depth to really create a lot of noise, and it's not their problem. They're just trying to fix it. That's the past problem or the past regime's problem. Yeah.

yeah i'm going to be keeping an eye on mentor and colson and and what they just kind of do with her that's all keep an eye on this season and the wins are the wins however falls in uh any other rookies or second year guys you kind of keep an eye on uh lad bakanki like could earnestly leave the team on targets like if he can stay healthy through that blocking highlight god yeah he's not helping the stereotype man but dude i i okay we're looking at

We just talked, you just said Keenan Allen, Michael Williams, no longer here. First round pick from last year, Quinton Johnson, not playing. NPC. NPC, not very good. So now you're talking about an offense that lost its two best receivers that have been, you know, pretty big force for their offense over the last few years. The first round pick from last year is not doing anything.

Dude, I don't know. I think people really need to kind of back off Charters hype for a year. Let's just let them get some players first. Remember, they had the fifth pick in the draft. There weren't a good team last year. And it's not the 49ers when they got Bosa a few years ago. Top five pick where it's like, oh yeah, it's just because the quarterback are hurt and they're going to revamp. It's like, no, they're going to revamp this whole

this whole roster and they're going to be better coach. They're going to be frisky. They'll probably have a couple of upsets this year, but I mean, they're over under is at eight and a half wins. I'm going under. I think this is more of a seven, 10 team. Herbert's health has me a little worried too, to where I get overwhelmed. I think they'll have a better second half of the year, but I think they're just going to be feeling incomplete till that, which is,

Which, appropriately so. That shouldn't be disappointing to anybody. This is a total revamp, even though they have the quarterback. Would you go over or under eight and a half wins for the Chargers? Under. Don't think they have the players for it. Yep. Just lacking some horses. Okay. Going to a team that has some horses.

defending X amount years champion the of the AFC West the Kansas City Chiefs and the over over what you watch report the Chiefs this year I also I'll just know I'll get out of the way there I think they're there 11 a half or 10 and if they're 11 a half wins I also went over but why why why are you going over which is good out of the way they're gonna bloodbath the rest of the division

They're by far the best team. They have the best quarterback. They have the best coach. Maybe Harbaugh shows his chops this year again. Now he's back in the NFL, but nothing's changed here. I'm interested to see...

Some of the new guys they've added, like Kingsley Sumataya at left tackle, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, but they could not have those guys. And I would still say over 11 and a half because they have Patrick Mahomes and they play in the AFC West. Remember a few years ago when the rush trade happened and people were like, me included, oh my God, the AFC West is about to be a bloodbath. No, no, no. Here we are. You have one team still standing tall that was standing tall back then. Here we are. Several different head coaches.

Some of the quarterback changes, yeah. They still have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelsey, Chris Jones, Andy Reid. Andy, heck, their offensive line coach, who I really respect, and Steve Spagnuolo. It's kind of like, do I need to say more? Creed Humphrey, Joe Tooney.

They have other role players that are good. So I think the offensive weapon improvement, even if I'm not the highest on guys like Worthy, it's still going from crap to not crap. And that's an improvement. And they brought Juju back. And even if Juju can't probably do anything in most offenses, here have a role as probably some zone beater. I do think that there's some misconception of how much Worthy and Howard Brown will be used. I think...

the best way that they'll be used or how they will be utilized is that they'll open up space for the other guys, Kelsey and Rasheed Rice. So I think that Rice is going to eat with all the empty space that he's going to have underneath on crossers, all the zone beaters and everything, drags underneath routes. So I think what's key to this team, though, at least for

Make that offense feel whole again and a little bit more sustainable other than Patrick go do something funny. The run game's got to get back on track. Trey Smith getting back on track is huge for that because he was so inconsistent last year. I really like all the tight ends they added. They traded for Peyton Hendershot from the Cowboys.

Now they got four workable tight ends while he's been up and down, but they still got Kelsey still got Noah gray So yeah, just the offensive personnel improvement, even if it's not great You mentioned soon Matija even if it's not great some improvement I think from last year and on top of they have this defense that has cool DB's cool just Chris Jones still has spags Yeah, it's really hard to kind of like shy away and being that two down on this team Even if they're not always perfect

What do you have for the negatives though? Kind of like, kind of maybe glaring a little bit for you. I don't think this wide receiver room is actually good. You know, it's just better than what you have. It's fine. Yeah. It's not crap. It's not ass. That's kind of what I went at. You just have the Mahomes and Andy Reed curve here that is making people feel better about it. Cause like, like my take is, well,

You did it with Kadarius Toney. Why can't you do it with Xavier Worthy? All the concerns I have about Xavier Worthy and his size, I absolutely think he's a better player than Kadarius Toney. Who just got waived today after they tried him out at running back. Did you cover his rookie year? Oh, yeah. Rookie summer was the time.

They were playing his rap songs during Giants practice. Joe Judge had the idea to play his rap songs during Giants practice to get him engaged. And also, after he got drafted, he didn't want to come to anything. It's like, bro, you've got to go to minicamp. Yeah. What the hell? I just remember all the shoot. He had like a cleat disagreement. It's like always there's always something coming up with his equipment. Whenever I see that, that's a huge red alert because that only comes out of something weird that's happening.

But then also the thing with the rap music, I was like, bro, you've been in the NFL for one month and you still need to be motivated like this to come to NFL practice. Yeah. It's been one month. You haven't even played a preseason game yet.

Yeah. It's not even week 10 when you're just beat up and grinding. Yeah. We're not, we're fresh. Not even the pads yet. I was always low on him. Couldn't trust him. Yeah. The last thing I want to say about the chiefs is my homes is still getting better. You know, like he, he turns 29 in a couple of weeks, which is like, man, man, man. Like we're like, we're, we're just now entering like what has become the new prime for quarterbacks with two more steps to take. Yeah.

Right. And I don't know if this is fully correct, but in the way that Tom Brady over his career played in so many different styles of offenses from 2001 through the Arians offense when he retired, Pat isn't, obviously because he hasn't played as long, but do Pat's mastered the, oh, we got Tyree Kill. Let's go bomb it. Then in the Super Bowl, they're dinking and dunking for a lot of the game outside of one or two shot plays.

His mastery of the game is getting a little crazy. And I think, you know, when you're in the season last year and the Chiefs, like they're not scoring as many points as usual, it kind of feels like, oh, this might be a down year for Mahomes. Dude, go back and watch the games. No, he was... No. He was insane. He's better. Yeah. That's why quarterback stats and stats in football are just so wonky and so hard to always like just use it always like just as an end-all be-all. But because it's just...

Mahomes felt like a better quarterback to me, even if the offense was worse statistically, even if it's still like a top 10 offense and everything, because he was the passing game. Every third down, because there weren't so many third and longs because the run game sucked or their guys were dropping footballs, was that him going, all right, I either get this read open with a cool pass or all right, here's me making magic happen.

And most guys do that once or twice a game. It's like, wow. And he's doing it every third down for like 12 weeks. Like he couldn't rely on anybody else. And it's just him playing quarterback. It's,

Him layers of offense. They changed the cadence last year because he's calling out the fronts. He's the only quarterback doing this in the league right now where he calls out the defensive front during his cadence. And that, yeah. So if you want to talk about how locked in the quarterback is, the defensive line front he is calling out. Not DBs, not receiver play, defensive line front. So I just looked up the ages of Tom Brady turned 30 during the 2007 season.

probably started ramping up the year before that. Peyton, 2004, he was 28. So that run he had, like 03, 04, 05, 06, 28, 29, 30. This is the prime. And we're just hitting it right now with probably, I think, the best player I've ever seen. Any other young guys? I got to get my, I got to hold on, just hit my flag again of Carson Steele.

Make sure you guys all, if you didn't hear it the first time, Carson Steele, running back two for the Chiefs. And he made the roster. He's a running back, not a fullback. But yeah, that's a rookie I'm checking out this year. Any others you want to throw in there? With how Pacheco played last year, that's gettable. Yeah. Gettable. And he runs hard. Hard runners don't always stay healthy. Also, Hicks, safety they have from Wazoo. Kind of want to check him out as well. All right. This is a clear over, though.

Oh, yeah, clear over. I figured that we were going to stay that. I didn't have to say, yeah, 11.5 wins over. I'm just always going to pick over. I feel like you just pick chalk every year. You feel pretty good until somebody retires and moves on. Flipping coast, getting to your time zone, the AFC East.

We will start with the Patriots. Weirdly enough, it feels weird that they have four and a half wins as a predicted win total right now. Or I should say the betting win total on BetMGM. All right. New England Patriots, where are you at with them at four and a half wins, Chuck? This feels a little low.

Four and a half. I would take the over here. I don't know if it's by like five or six, like six and 11 kind of teams within reach. That's what I feel like. For this team. Yeah. The thing that I feel like something that people don't realize is like in the way that it's really hard to be like,

extremely otherworldly dominant and good for multiple years in a row, it's also kind of difficult to be that bad. If the Patriots were to repeat on offense and not get somewhere closer to league average, that would be a massive red flag. But I think that this offense...

I think they can finish in like the low, like around like 22, 23 maybe. It's not a good group. They still need to add a whole bunch of pieces over the next few off seasons. But I really do think that people...

concerned about drake starting and drake may starting it's like come on let's get over this you can you can get hurt at any point playing football you can get hurt in practice you get hurt in preseason game you can get hurt lifting weights we've seen players already out for the season who haven't who got hurt like not even in a regular season game um jason mccarthy got shadow punched

Right? We didn't know when he got hurt. It just happens that Teddy Bridgewater had his career altered in a free play. Right, in a walkthrough. So, like, these things can just happen. And the other thing I feel about this offensive line is people don't think about it can always get worse. Like, it can always...

always, always, always get worse. There's no guarantee that the group you see in front of you now is going to be better next year. That's just not how it works. So just throw him out there. I think he's a player. You said this the other day in our group chat. He's someone that's just going to have to learn on the go, I think. Just let him limit test. Let him go out there and make mistakes. That's what this year is for. But they're not going to win a whole lot of games.

I like the defense a lot. I really do. Even though Judon and Barmore, I think Keon White's a good player. I think they can move him around, good against running pass. They have Uche, Wise. The tight ends are good for them. Maybe not every other defense. I like the back end. None of them are...

rookies or guys past their primes. They're all kind of like young vets. They get a couple older guys, but mostly vets and they're all solidly good playing the defense that works. So I like the defense is what has me going, where it's like, I think they're too good. They're going to keep them in enough games. And like the other part of the equation for me, if I were optimistic about them, which I am, I'm with you. I think it's more of a six win team. I can't believe that they have the lowest one. I think they should be more looked at as a five and a half when I know it's splitting hairs, but it doesn't matter to me, damn it. But I, this, what you mentioned about the offense, I,

our offensive line, I wholeheartedly agree with is that everyone keeps, it's, it's a little bit narrative scouting going on where, especially the game that it was on national game Sunday night when everyone's watching may everyone's watching the offensive line, make mistake after mistake, mostly for legal formation stuff, which guess what guys is fixable. That's not a guy getting beat. That's a guy just stepping. That's a new role. They emphasized that.

But David Andrews wasn't playing their center. So yeah, some center operation stuff is going to look worse when you're backup center and really guys that shouldn't have barely played there are playing there. That Lane Robinson is a fourth rounder and I think he could be a real find for them. And I like, I keep mentioning this. I like the offensive line coach. I finally remember his name now, Scott Peters. Their rules look really good. Like their baseline's a lot higher than I think people are making it out to be. It's not great. I'm not saying this. Oh my God, you guys are sleeping on a top 10 line.

I will say, though, there are at least several worse offensive line situations right now before it even starts. I can say that pretty comfortably. So this is why, though, I want them to play May. It's going to be tough. It's going to be really hard on him. This is how he learns. Like you said, this is how he figures out what his limit is early on. And you can already see it happening in the preseason where he's throwing trick shots to Jalen Polk and all these types of things. But they also have an offensive staff or offensive system. It's not sexy. Like this offense is...

It's fine. It's a B minus offense. I can already tell. I'm not going to be enthused about it, but it's fine. It's they run a lot of play action. They run a lot of bootlegs. They do a lot of screens. They have a lot of chip out. They know how to help these guys out. That's why I'm not thinking they're going to just throw them in the deep end and go, why doesn't this offense work? They're actually going to have some answers for him. And that's why I don't.

I've come around to, at first I was like, yeah, keep May out. The schedule's so tough. And now I'm like, just screw it, play him. He's a better athlete. He can mitigate damage. Watch him get rid of the ball before the defensive lineman were getting in there the other night.

And so, yeah, that's where I think it's being over. Just a very simple fact. He's been so much better than Jacoby percent this preseason. He has. Gerard Maley even said it. So let's go. Let's go. Yeah. And I think he can mentally handle it. And that's all the rumors everyone keeps saying. And I could tell this by film is that he handles it mentally very well. Again, all the rookie quarterbacks I really do think are pretty advanced and

even as in college, he did this. That's why I'm like, I think he's, he just needs reps. He needs to handle a third down protection change. If he doesn't get it, guess what? You're projected to win four and a half wins. Like, it's not like he's costing you a playoff spot if he does mess it up. So I, yeah, just play him. I I'm excited. I I'm excited to watch him play. I'm if I had not St. Drake may, then it's Jalen Polk.

is the other guy I'm excited to play who I think is going to be a nice steady Eddie for him. Any other guys you want to give a shout out for me? I think we both are saying over four and a half wins. Yeah.

Christian Gonzalez is back. Oh, yeah. Good shout. It's obviously a pretty big deal for them. He was great before he hurt his shoulder last year and happened this year. It's a big boost for a defense. And I think the secondary could be pretty good. Dude, they're going to play a lot of rock fight games. Also, Keyon White is another guy I want to talk about real quick. Dude, his draft. I was like, dude, I don't know where you play him. Just give him the Bill Belichick or the Ravens and he'll probably work out.

Bill loves those, like the four eyes, you know, the tweeners, six, five, 280 pounds, no discernible traits, but three, four DNs. That's what he likes. Three, four, three, four base defensive ends. He loves those guys. It's because everyone else hates them because they're like, oh, they can't get 10 sacks. It's like, he's like, fine.

I'm just going to push the pocket. And you ain't going to run on us. Hey, guess what? You want that receiver to block one of these 260-pound linebackers? Have fun. Hey, it works. Yeah, four and a half wins. I say over. Over. Yeah. And I say play May. I really do. I'm going to make mistakes when I'm running out there. I think, though, he's further along than people are realizing. I'm pretty excited to watch him play. I hope our picks are mathematically compatible. Like, our over and under picks. My FC South, I think, is already screwed.

I think I went over on every single one of them. Whatever. We'll get in there somewhere. Next up in the AFC East, we have the Miami Dolphins at 9.5 wins. Chuck, what's your feeling on the Dolphins this year? What's there to say? It's the same thing we've seen the last two years. They're probably going to be one of the best offense in the league again this year. Until Christmas. Until Christmas, until it gets cold outside and maybe they'll make the playoffs, but

I don't know. I don't feel I literally don't feel any different about this team than I did like 12 months ago. I know it's even when I was kind of breaking down notes when the more extended format, it was like strength of the team, speed, offensive innovation.

I feel, I feel almost mean to dolphins fans. It's like, I dig what, what they do. And like, I love it. And it's so cool. It's unique and it's fun and it's exciting, but it's just like, it's amazing, but we're seeing it again. And, and, and they didn't do something where I'm like, okay, this time they fixed it. There, there are little things they did. Like they improve some offensive line depth, you know, like Patrick Paul and stuff like that. And I like Paul and Aaron Brewer at center. I do like that. Um,

Felicis.

I don't know. When you got a lot of fragile players, they're a little smaller. They rely on the speed. It's just... I've kind of seen this show again. And the... You know, I actually did like the Jordan Brooks signing, too. I also... Still stunned. He didn't have a bigger market because that's like a three-down linebacker and doesn't grow on trees. I have all played... Usually, these types of players, I roll my eyes at. And you can... You'll laugh at this. It's Johnnie Smith. That's because he's more of an idea than a player. But actually, in Miami, where...

ideas more than real things are perfect there it's yeah that is yeah johnny smith is great like in this offense they're already running reverses and stuff to him so i actually kind of liked a little those kind of like in between things that this this team did dude my the young player i was gonna uh point out exactly falls into the archetype jalen right the running back from tennessee that they traded of they traded a future third

to move up in the fourth round to get him. And like my eval on him at 10 T was like fast blind as a bat. He's runways. And then he landed with the dolphins. So it might actually work for him. That's it. I know he's the guy. Usually I'm always so low on. I was low. It was like, all right, he's big and can run. But it's like,

all his best plays were the cleanest path like blocked up stuff i think he had the long run against bama that i saw 500 million times again on twitter because it was like his one good run where he actually hit like in between the gap yeah i'm with you but you can take it to the house that's what that's all they care about can you take it to the house okay all right we'll get you a spot on this offense um yeah yeah i do want to shout out patrick paul though because he actually looked he's a tackle from houston

long as can be traits out of this world does not know how to use his hands like he likes the bear hug guys they fixed it already a little bit this is why I was high on him and that a guy like him is huge for them because they have so much offensive line depth issues and injuries every year or even if he's not great as a rookie even he's just he's better than what they had he has some talent some traits to work with and again that's

in between things I actually liked with the Dolphins I even liked when they signed Terry Tartt and then they cut him I was pretty geeked when they did that because I was like yeah another guy I like but that's that's not only could go so far I guess yeah anybody any other rookie or second year guys want to maybe shout out I like Julian Hill they're tight undrafted tight end second year guy I'm intrigued by him that's kind of a deep deep shout out hipster shout out because they don't have first round picks for forever

I'll go with Chuck Robinson the first round pick only because I think his job is going to be so simple this year dude they have they have a huge defensive line Clays Campbell Zach Seiler Neo Jones in the middle those guys are all 300 plus think you know Jones might be like 340 it's a

It's a big boy, but I feel like that's a big boy. That's what weaver or that's what, you know, the Ravens like to do. Let's just get biggest help front. We'll figure out the rest. So they are at least following the model in that way. And we'll see if, if Campbell has anything left in the tank, but like, dude, chop,

You are talking about Jordan Brooks. David Long is still here. Yeah. Phillips is back and ahead of schedule. Brooks and Long is like a really good linebacker pair. That's a great thunder and lightning duo. Yeah. I love it. I love it. But dude, chop. All you got to do is hold the gap and rush the passer. Cause every like dude, this front seven, I think could be, it could be like quality, maybe top half of the league. If Clay still have something in the tank, you know,

Yeah, no, I think that's a great shot. I've come around. We haven't mentioned Jalen Ramsey once, by the way, but who, when he's playing, he actually is very good still. But, but no, I I'm with you as that, that when they had that kind of size and when they have, you know, I'm interested in all these kind of former Ravens defense coordinators, like, like Weaver, like, I'm excited to see what they do because it's just like, are you going to be creative? Are you going to use these guys? Like how, how, you know,

Kind of like, could you use them like they used in Baltimore? Do you have Roquan Smith? But they actually have some interesting personnel for it. So good shout out with Chop. Another kind of like with the Colts were with Latu, where they got a smaller guy with the big guys to kind of, you know, build out the room as opposed to a bunch of small twitchy guys where it's like, oh, any of you guys hold up the run? So actually, I like that him getting dropped in there.

All right. They are at nine and a half wins over or under on the Miami dolphins this year. Over the offense is too good, but who cares? I am also on the over. I'm a little more bullish on them than I thought it was going to be. It's about the regular season now. I'm not talking about the full thing. So, uh, but yeah, I'm also on the over. All right. Next one up also at nine and a half wins is the New York jets. Charles, former team you covered. Where are you feeling or how are you feeling about the jets so far this year on their over under total?

I feel like the biggest scared loser cop-out person in the world because I just have nothing concrete on this team. Dude, the Aaron Rodgers thing, I feel like it's a way bigger question mark than people are talking about. We're kind of glossing over it, aren't we? We do. Okay, so he didn't play at all last year, right? With rehabbing from the Achilles injury. He's 40 now. The last time we saw him play,

It was not great, you know, in Green Bay. Like it was, it was fine. It wasn't bad. Right. So there's no way, because now we're talking about

The last time that he actually played good football was 2021. That was before he turned 40, before an Achilles injury, before being traded to a new team. Because that 2022 season, the Packers were like, no, it's Jordan Love time. We got to move on. It's time. But he had the two back-to-back MVP seasons right before that. So maybe that's still in there. But we're getting to three seasons removed from

from that last MVP year. You know, like this is a massive wild card. And the reason why I feel, I said, I feel like a cop out is because I don't think that any result here should be unexpected with Rogers. If he's good, you should expect that. If he's terrible, that would not be surprising either because he's had such a, you know, he hasn't, he hasn't played in two years almost. But, but,

They still got, you know, and I feel the same way about the other guys. Tyron Smith, Mike Williams, they can stay healthy. It'll probably be pretty good. But it just feels so fragile, and I don't know what's going to happen, that I'm probably going to take the under here. Yeah, the fragility of the whole operation is what I said, and a reliance on a 40-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles tear. It doesn't matter who it is. If you just took the names away, and you just made up the games they played and the injuries that they had,

Wouldn't you be freaking concerned about what this team's going to be? And wouldn't you be betting on injuries to reoccur if the guys have been hurt before, like Tyron Smith or Mike Williams, in this case, Elijah Veritaker, who a very good player if he can stay on the field. But the thing is, is even if they have more depth, like a guy like Olufushanu, who I'm very excited about.

If a guy on the inside gets hurt, inside being guard or center, okay, where's the depth there? It just gets a little dicey with any of those guys get hurt. Mike Williams goes down. Are we really going to trot out Alan Lazard?

Like, okay. And then Malachi Corley, who is, you know, handpicked as Rogers' guy. So I'm sure he'll get some reps this year. He's a gadget guy. He's a receiver fives, you know, jet sweep, crosser type of guy. That's a work in progress. No, he's Devo Samuel, actually. Oh, God. I know another one. Is this a Devo? It's, but each of these guys,

I, there's a timeline where this works and this is top five and a holy crap paired with this defense and holy crap, this is a really good team. It's just what, if you're a betting man, what would you be betting on the stuff that's happened so many times before with all these guys and, or the 40 year old within Achilles, like once you bet on that, not going as well as you planned, that's what I kind of keep coming back to. The D line depth isn't kind of what it was. It has high end talent.

Quinton Williams is a star of all stars. The linebacker is good. They play fast. They have other players. Still haven't figured out the Redick thing. Is his fine number, what, two million now? More than two. It's ridiculous now. I know. I could film an independent movie with it. I would have to imagine at this point you have to respect the idea that he might take it to the regular season. Trent Williams already said he will. Trent Williams is on Redick.

That is the big wild card here, though, because if he's not here, then you're looking at some pretty shaky defense. Some weird stuff. Yeah. The guy I wanted to highlight was Will McDonald, only because his... Dude, his...

to the NFL just like schematically is bizarre because, you know, they're playing on the ice. You're obsessed with this because you just hate big 12 defenses so much. I hate it so much. It's one thing when Georgia has, you know, 280-pound guys playing 4-I, right? I can live with that. But when Iowa State is putting 235-pound Will McDonald at 4-I and asking the whole thing against double teams, dude, what are we doing here? I know.

I feel like you would be better served. Right. My scheme. Yeah. Well, dude, put him on the edge. He's got NFL, you know, athletic ability, but my worry is he just, he's just so far behind the eight ball that it might not happen for him. Like the, the, in the first game against the commanders, he takes the widest angles because he can't,

push through someone. He runs the hoop. He runs the biggest hoop that you've ever seen. So his development is going to be huge because if Redick's not here, they're going to need to step up. I don't think Jermaine Johnson can be your number one edge rusher. So Hassan, go to work. Yeah, they just lost some of that kind of minutiae guys like this. You mentioned a few of them earlier on other teams already. They kept, it seems, on their initial 53, at least a little bit. This was reported earlier. They're keeping three undrafted free agents on their defensive line.

Eric Watts from Yukon, Leonard Taylor, Taylor from Miami and a Braden McGregor from Michigan. All players like McGregor actually kind of like, uh, Taylor was a highly recruited guy. Uh, but again, that's 300 free agents. That's kind of like shows indicates kind of where this D lines at, where it's like, this is used to be one of the strengths of all strengths. And now it's, you know, more question marks, even though I think it's still going to be very good. I still think the backend rocks that the DB room is awesome with stars and very good players at every spot. Uh,

I think you'll be able to run on this team a little bit. I think that's where, if I were an opposing offense, that's what I'd really be testing. Easier said than done. So when we're doing the more extended notes, I had player thing you're most excited to keep track of or whatever, and I just said the medical reports. Just...

Doubtfuls. That's what I'm going to be looking at every single week with this team. Yeah. I mean, anything you had. I had Fashanu. For rookies, yeah. Yeah. And then Braylon Allen. That's what I got, too. It's going to be tough to get touches away from Brees Hall, but...

I like his talent a lot. I think he looks a bit more explosive than he did at Washington. I mean, because when he was 17, starting as a freshman, I was like, oh my God. He's the next one. I don't think that that's totally gone. But if we're looking at it from a fantasy-ish perspective, it's not the best situation for him. But I do think when he gets in the field, he should play pretty well.

Yeah, I'm pretty high. I liked him in the draft process. I just got yelled at for being a homer. But I liked him. He's big. He's got nice feet. He can catch better than people made it out to be. He's not going to be running choice routes, but he can catch the ball well. So I liked him. That was the guy I had as well because Brees Hall is a star, extremely good player. But this is a really good number two that they have now. And I think their run game is going to be pretty good. Hackett and it's Rodgers' offense, let's call it Spurs.

spade to spade. But they're going to run the ball. There's going to be plenty of zone. There's going to be plenty of under center runs. That's what this offense is built off of. So they're going to get opportunities. Maybe in the red zone, they don't get the touchdowns because Rodgers just goes, oh, fade. Let's get those numbers up. But it's at nine and a half wins. You're taking over the under. Under. I think nine and eight sounds about right. Oh, man. I just don't know what to do with Rodgers. I'm torn on this one. I'm going under, but I think it's eight, nine, or nine and 18. But I...

I do like the Jets where they're at right now, but it's just so fragile that I just can't just say that. I picture the under hitting more than the over if I were looking at this. And I am looking at this. That's why we're doing this. All right. Now, last team in the AFC East. We're almost there. Five teams left, and we got this. We got this. AFC East. We got the Bills at 10.5 wins.

This one was tough, dude. 10 and a half. That's a tough number for this team. Only because like this, this is the year where, or maybe the first year where Josh Allen is like dad on offense, you know, where he's, it's him and a bunch of young receivers, you know, yeah. Uncle Josh. I got some, like some young dudes on the offensive line too, but I still think that dude,

dude, he's, he's so good. Like, like comically good in a world where, where my homes doesn't exist. Like it's him and Lamar that I think Duke can offer the best quarterback in the league. And like, I, I don't, I, I'm, I personally am a Lamar Jackson guy, but there's no problem with someone who says they would take Josh Allen over. I'm like, that's,

He's really that good. So, you know, you have like this albatross in the middle who can kind of carry you to at least like where you think you want to go. Now it's just about, all right, we got Khalil Shakir, who is going to be probably your number one receiver this year, along with Keon Coleman. Maybe there's a 1A, 1B thing there.

That's a big shift from where you've been over the past couple of years with Stefan Diggs up until like the back half of last year. It's really just about the faith in Josh Allen. And you're going through a transition period on defense, too. I would be inclined to take the under. I still think they win the division. Maybe maybe they get to like a late season game against the Dolphins that that that helps them win it. I think 10 and 7 was about right.

Yeah, I... That's kind of where I ended up with them. It is. They still have Josh Allen, and I keep coming back to that. First and foremost, you have that. Okay, cool. I really like the run game. I think that'll help them keep afloat. Maybe keep... They're going to be more in glorified, ugly games. It's going to feel like... I think we're used to them sometimes with this Bills team, where I just feel... It's going to feel more like that second half of last year, where it was more 2017-ish. But I do like the reconfigured pass catchers.

they're young. We'll see. It's, it's a greater than some of the parts. I think digs would take away some things at the end there, as much as they brought along, as far as just kind of like what he was willing to do and what he wasn't willing to do. You got some young guys that are willing to do some more dirty work stuff. Keon Coleman and Don Cacade. I think it's gonna be really cool. Kind of like double slot power slot kind of thing going on. We'll see how it kind of an operation works out. I like the run game a lot though. I just, that's why I always come back to it. I already mentioned it, but it's just, they, they're pretty innovative with some of the stuff they do. Like,

I shouldn't say innovative. They're on the forefront. I guess that's the same term. Way to go, Nate. Yeah, same thing. So the dart run concept, which is the tackle pull, they'll do that. But these aren't new, but it's more of a college thing. They're one of the few NFL teams that majors in it. But then even in this preseason, they're doing a little zone tweak. Now, a zone run, nobody pulls on typically. They would in the past would have Mitch Morse pull, which is a classic thing my dad used to do with Jeff Christie.

And others, Joe Hawley, he would do it with some other guys. He would do that. Chip and Jason Kelsey. Kelsey is the primary guy with it. Yeah, all those guys that wipes, they call them. And...

They're doing the new zone thing. I've seen Wisconsin in the past do it. Oregon did it under Mario Cristobal. Other teams have done this. And it turns into a pin-pull play, and it's just a zone adjustment. It's a weak zone where guys end up pulling. So it's just also one of these schematic things. Isn't that technically pin-pull, even if it's a zone adjustment because you are pinning and pulling? But I would quality control coaches figure that out. But why I thought that was cool is that not a lot of teams do that.

obviously they're watching college tape, which makes sense because they have Joe Brady there, you know, sort of watching some college tape. So I'll

also makes sense because they like to pull their guys like Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown. They like to pull their tackles. So why not just keep them pulling, get them like, we're good at it. So let's just find other ways that we can pull our guys. So I just wanted to use that as kind of like a, you know, a little snapshot of like why I'm pretty, even if I'm not like the biggest Joe Brady guy, they do enough good things that it's interesting. And Josh Allen is Josh Allen. So, um, and the defensive coaches, I trust more than maybe some of the players that they have back there, but yeah,

Anything else that you're excited about? Any second-year players, rookies, that you're checking out for this Bills team? Just the James Cook-Ray Davis combo. I think it'd be pretty fun. Yeah, Ray Davis is another nice location. I thought he landed in the perfect role. Not going to get too many touches, but good spell for James Cook. Yep, and they need that. They need kind of the on-time back. Just the guy that...

stays on time while James Cook economy bouncing things James could got better for doing the dirty work stuff I will give him credit for it. So But the drops are pretty frustrating. Yeah for me, that's a pretty good one for those guys It's the Coleman KK. It's all the pass catchers Cleo Matt. The coolest Shakira's a third-year But I am a big fan of him and I want to see him in this defensive or an offense a little bit Also your pick so you said under I

Under, but it's not like a slight. 10.5. They're a little too green on offense. Yeah, 10.7. A little too green on offense, but Josh can get you 10. Yeah. I think that's where I'm at with them. I'll go over it just to have a little difference, but I think it's 11.6. Yeah, but I think it's 10.11. I think Josh is getting you in there, just like you said. All right, we got one more division left. We're going to go to break. We'll be back after the break with AFC North, the

AFC version of the black and blue division. Yeah, that works. Whatever. We'll see you guys in a sec.

Last division here. Trying to keep this under freaking Avengers endgame time. AFC North. We'll start with the Steelers at 8.5 wins. Charles.

Pittsburgh Steelers, who we've talked about a little bit this summer, but where are you at as we launch into the season? I mean, I would say under, but I would have said under any other year over the past few years, too. I mean, they just seem to defy logic. They're always like 10-7 with minus 500 point differential somehow. It makes no sense. I don't think that this is a good team right now.

I just don't think they... They're kind of in the middle of a rebuild that they haven't fully admitted that they're in the middle of yet. We'll see what happens with the Brandi-Iuke trade. I don't think that that's something they need to be doing right now. I don't think that makes a whole lot of sense. I can't believe we're still talking about them. Dude, I know. I know.

I will appreciate that he has at least just kind of disappeared for a little bit. That has been good. But, you know, I think the Steelers are set up to look good on offense again in like three years. I thought you were going to say next year. No, no, no. Let's not get crazy. I mean, dude, you got a long way to go, right? George Pickens.

as funny as the memes are, still got a long way to go before you talk about a true bona fide number one. His number two is either Van Jefferson, who was not good at all with the Falcons last year, or Calvin Austin, who our friend Stephen Ruiz, every time we make a Madden league, he drafts Calvin Austin and Bruce Beaver and puts him at running back because he's 5'7". It actually works. It works. It works. But here we go. We got...

We got Zach Frazier, who looked pretty well as a rookie at center in the preseason. I'm glad you mentioned him because he's looking good. Yeah, he looks good at center right now. But continue, I'm sorry. Troy Patano at right tackle. I still like to see him at guard, but looking at the composition of the offensive line, I get why he's playing tackle right now. Broderick Jones, he's still up or down, but he's still a really young guy that's still kind of growing to his body. So I wouldn't be completely out on that yet.

You might have, I would say you probably have two at least. You might have a left tackle guard, or excuse me, a left tackle center, and then Fatanu playing tackler guard for the future. That's a good setup. Everything else here is pretty bad though. Like outside of Jalen Warren, maybe. Like I'm not a really big Najee Harris guy, not a big Russell Wilson guy. Like if I were them, I would start Justin Fields and say, we're going to run for 3000 yards and only throw if it's third and seven plus.

Sounds like a fan of the old Vic Duckett work done offenses in Atlanta. Dude, I met work done. I met work done at the NFL PA party that we went to and I was trying not to fangirl like I really was.

Great guy. Great guy. Great guy. Yeah, yeah, we're done. But, yeah, Steelers has just been kicking around my brain because I want to see what it looks like with Smith and Arthur Smith and these quarterbacks. I'm with you that I feel like Fields is the better dice roll. Seems like they're going to go with Russell because maybe that gives them the play to, oh, now we're going with Justin. I feel like it's harder to go back the reverse way. You've got to think of these things with the coaches and how they think too because it's always CYA. Okay.

Cover your ass. But I'm glad you mentioned Frazier. As you can tell, I'll cut you off with it. But Frazier looked good, like really looked good in the preseason. I knew he'd kind of be ready to rock early in his career. Steelers are always not going to play their rookies early on. They make you work for it. It's kind of really good to see him kind of solidify that spot. I'm...

I'm pretty excited about the beef on offense, even if it's not going to be the sexiest offense in the world. They're trotting out three tight ends with Darnell Washington at 270, Michael Pruitt at 260, Pat Firemuth at 260. Pickens is the lone receiver. I was like, okay, all right, that'll get me going a little bit. But again, that's going to be more fun than good.

kind of thing. That's kind of what I get back to with the offense. Me as a football X's and O's nerd, I'm going to really like it. I'm learning my lesson from the Falcons last year. But it's like, yes, I'm going to like the run game. They're going to do some cool stuff. But it's just the passing game. Anytime they're going to be past third and seven, they're properly screwed. And you can't win that way. You can win some games, but you can't win. There's no reliable passing game that can get you off the field or there or keep drives going, I should say.

Yeah, that's just hard for me to kind of like really anoint you or do anything, even if I do like the run game. And I do like the defense. You still got Micah Fitzpatrick, still got TJ Watt, still got Hayward, still got plenty of second-year guys that I won't spoil too much. A lot of defensive talent that I really like. It's just that, again, quarterback is very important.

that's going to lift you up and bring you down too if it's not a great instance like here am i the the uh what's his name the wire see deontay uh johnson to the panthers for dante jackson from the panthers so they swapped the wide receiver for a cb that trade like as much as it as much as it was a desperate need for the cornerback room that they needed last year because last year we were like you got joey porter jr and what else

Okay, you got Dante Jackson, who's probably like a CB3, ideally. But it's better than what you had last year. They've had worse. But at the same time, that was a huge loss to the wide receiver group because they don't really have much outside of them. Then when you just look at the cornerback rooms, I get why you did it. Because if you didn't trade for Dante Jackson...

What were you going to do? You probably would have had to take a cornerback in the first round. I mean, they're still slated to start potentially an undrafted rookie, Beanie Bishop Jr. at Nickelback this year, according to our lads. It's like, it's like kind of like the Raiders defense that we talked about earlier. Good players, but pretty incomplete.

I will say that the Patrick Queen Landon Roberts duo is hilarious. It's min maxing like thunder and lightning duos. Yes, it really is like all the way. You just got the, oh my God, just a sawed off shotgun.

and just the sleek samurai sword that you don't know which way it's cutting like queen queen's gonna hit somebody who doesn't know you don't know what team's gonna be on like but he's gonna go full speed and hit it uh yeah in baltimore

I know that's his brain still in Baltimore. Well, you know, and they have make a Fitzpatrick like Fitzpatrick is such a wild card because he's going to kind of he is one of those guys just as a booster on everybody around. But it's a little little weird in the middle there for the Pittsburgh defense. I'm glad you mentioned it. Like my second year guys are Keanu Benton, Joey Porter Jr. I think that's easy for anybody because I think those guys are

standout players, potential Pro Bowl type players. And they're going to be both in their set, not this year, but maybe sometime in their career. But man, they hit on both of those guys from last year's draft and they look like very good starters. Another Badger mentioned, got to throw that in there. Also,

Shout out James Daniels, their guard. It's actually been okay. I have a second mention this summer about him. It's actually been okay this preseason. I have no idea if he's going to become anything, but I do want to give him a shout out. Any other guys you want to highlight before we maybe make our picks? Roman Wilson.

Not to get a lot of targets. We're going to see real quick. I mean, dude, I don't see why he couldn't get in the starting lineup at some point over Calvin Johnson or Ben Jefferson. And if he can't, he needs to draft someone else immediately next year.

I was like a dirty work. Number three for me, you know, like a third down chain mover, dirty work guy, but it's not like a, I didn't see him as like a real two, you know, like it's just more of a high end three. So I'd like it though. Under, under, uh,

Can't score enough points. I'm going to go under. I originally had over. I'm going to go under, too. I'm betting against the Tomlin Voodoo at my own risk. I hit it last year, so maybe that was my one time to go like, I'm going against the grain because it's the Steelers. We only could use it so much, but in six months, we'll be just going, God, the Steelers, they're making the playoffs. They're the seventh seed once again. Nine and eight, making the playoffs again. Next up, eight and a half wins, Browns. Cleveland Browns. Where are you at with the Browns right now, Charles?

Are they ever going to get anything out of that quarterback? They just they paid like a quarter billion dollars to fully guaranteed. I was not like, dude, if not, then who cares? The defense is going to be good. They have way too many good players on defense to not at least be like top five again. But until Deshaun Watson plays well, it doesn't matter. And we've talked about a bunch offline, but he's only played in 12 games as a Browns quarterback. 150 grand snap.

somebody she's made they if really it all comes down to that because you look at the defense even if they're not one of the best defenses the top 20 years like they were statistically last year

They still look like, like you said, look like a top five defense to me just because they have D-line and pass rusher depth. They have a competent defense coordinator, a good defense coordinator, I would say. You know, can get caught against some offenses, but still, I don't think there's going to be drop-off there. And workable linebackers. They have JOK, who's unique and good for this defense. They have a really good DB room. And the baseline for the offense is high. It's not...

It's kind of like the Bears defense a little bit where it's like there's a lot of good solid starters here. Even if I'm not super high on the receivers, like Amari I think is more of a two, Amari Cooper. I've never been high on Judy. I think he's a three. I like Tillman a little bit, but who knows? Because it seems like they want to bring everybody else in, but I'm hoping Cedric Tillman ends up being something. But it comes down to the quarterback. This team, this is a lot of money to pay for a quarterback that last year, and this is not the...

end-all, be-all stat, but it's just a nice stat right now for what I'm trying to present about how Deshaun Watson has played. He had a QBR last year of 42.9. 50 is average, okay? So below average, first and foremost. It's adjusted for season, all these things. Only players, quarterbacks that he was better than with that 42.9. Sam Howell, Aiden O'Connell, Desmond Ritter,

You know, just talk about that. Kenny Pickett, Mac Jones, Bryce Young, Will Davis, Zach Wilson, and Josh Dobbs. So you have traded, guy that backed up, is backing up Gardner Minshew right now. Traded in the cut, traded, traded. We'll see, but it looks like a pretty rough number one overall pick.

Will Levis, we'll see. That was a half season. We'll see with him. Wilson traded. Dobbs traded like 15 times. And that's fine. You just go, okay, that's the 22nd best quarterback. We got plenty around him to win games. Not when you pay this guy this much money, guaranteed money. And you're pointing at a game like the Ravens game and going like, oh, that's the game we're building off. And it's all screens and underneath stuff. Dude, that's the most overrated performance ever, man. It's just – I think his eight-dot was like three yards in that game too. Oh.

It's just, yeah. And so much with the Browns, too. Now they're doing the whole we're going to trade Jameis thing. But I really want to keep an eye on this here is when are they pulling the ripcord on this? Or what is the next step of the Deshaun Watson ordeal? When is it more than just us here on a podcast going, really, we're doing this? As opposed to them going, hey, we have to figure out an exit plan. Because it's such a crazy contract. And this season, this is the crossroad season. It has to be.

We were just talking about Aaron Rodgers earlier and how you're like, ah, it's been so long. It's been longer for Deshaun Watson. And I know obviously he's not nearly as old as Aaron Rodgers and doesn't have the injury history, but he's played 12 games as a Browns quarterback. He's played 12 games since 2020. That's four years ago at this point, three seasons ago. The guy in 2020, before all that,

Other stuff happened. He was legitimately insanely good. Like that 2020 season. Top five guy. That's a quarterback you trade three first round picks for, but he hasn't been anything close to that since then. And if he's going to keep playing like this, he'll never win a Super Bowl. No. And the thing is,

When people are getting excited about Joe Flacco, dude, Joe Flacco was not actually good last year. You just made more throws than Deshaun Watson. He was just launching bombs. He was just like, and it was just high variance play and it worked out for him. That's all it was, but it was still better. And God, I just looked at the, I looked at his contract too. And it's like, I mean, they can't even really get, I mean, they have so many void years with it because they're kind of going from the bank of Deshaun and everything. They've had to move money around. That's really move around.

Nice job. Nice job. I know. Shoot. Weren't you looking at, because we're doing the first and second year players. I had said your Tillman as, because I, I, that last year draft class or yeah, 20, that, that draft class in 2023 with the receivers, it was not a great draft class. He was the only like X that I thought could maybe be something, but that's all I had. And you kind of were looking at the Browns draft history and kind of going not much overall to pick from here. It's really, it's,

There might be legitimately zero hits in two years for the Browns. If you go back since 2022, when the first round pick deficit started after the Sean Watson trade, your best two players are Emerson. Emerson won. And I would say Cade York, too, the kicker.

Yeah. Their third round pick from last year, Siak Iko, was cut today. Already cut. Cedric Tillman, they traded for Jerry Judy. Do you remember David Bell, the Purdue receiver? Almost cutting him, right? I don't know if he made the team, but he was drafted in the third round. Yeah, yep.

So, dude, they like now now you're if you're the Browns, like you're starting to get to a point where this is this is getting fragile. I don't know if I don't know if it's going to show this year. But like when you whiff on two straight draft classes, plus the quarterback you traded three first round picks for isn't any good. That creates a very fragile ecosystem, even in a world where you have Miles Garrett and probably the best TV trio in the league.

Right. And secondary pass rushers that other teams would die for. It's funny. They built...

a final four roster, like a roster that I would say if they had like, I know this is different, but like say we got like Jordan Love was the quarterback here. We should just go like, holy Super Bowl Browns. Yeah. And we're saying I'm going to pick over under eight and a half. I am saying that they're going to hit the over, but I think it's a nine and 18. But that's the difference. That's the difference of what the quarterback play, because I don't even think it's average. I think it's a below average quarterback at best.

And that's, I get it. He's only played 12 games. That's the problem. When you're playing a guy like this, you know it when you see it. You know what a guy looks like. They're cushioning him and trying to make it as easy as possible for him. And it's still up and down. So, yeah, we'll see. It's such a unique situation with it all because they have so many nice pieces on that team. So, yeah. But we're still over 8.5 wins. Over. Didn't we both have the Browns as number one defense? Or item number one? I think you had number two. Number two. Number three. Yep.

I know. We're still optimistic about it. So I know. You got a defense. The O-line's good enough. We'll see what happens with Nick Chubb. Got some okay play callers. You got a lot here. I know. But that's how bad he's been. It's whatever. It's almost like quarterback's important. It really is. Moving on to the next team is the Cincinnati Bengals at 10 and a half wins. Charles, Cincinnati Bengals.

Or are you going to start with them? I think this is tough because this division is tough. I don't... This is the only AFC division where every team has at least eight and a half predicted win totals. As we know, the AFC North is no slouch. It feels like it's never really actually been bad at any point in my life. The Browns have been bad. Because we've both grown up on what? Ravens, Bengals, and Raven Steelers our entire lives, right? Yeah. Dude, I miss going to...

Dude, going to the Raven Steelers games in like early 2010s. Man, they were hitting. How many points did you see? 10? 10. Dude, I was at the game where Mike Tomlin tried to trip Jacoby Jones and then played dumb. Dude, I didn't know if Mike Tomlin was going to make it home that night. I lived in Pittsburgh when that happened.

I was at a bar in Pittsburgh when that happened. Because it was like a Thursday night game, I want to say. I remember I was home visiting. I was visiting home for some reason. Me and my friend from high school went to the game. And when Mike walked out on the field during the kickoff, I thought people were going to kidnap him before the game was over. But that's what makes us so beautiful. Back to the Bengals though. I don't know. Because like I said, it's tough because the division's good. I would probably go under...

Just because, you know, the defense might struggle. Joe Burrows is coming back from injury. But I do see them in like that nine or maybe like the 10 and seven, 11 and six tier because they're going to be able to score points again. All right.

If they can copy and paste the offense they ran last year with Jake Browning and put Joe Burrow in there, that should score a whole lot of points. Jamar Chase is back at practice, so it looks like he's going to play even without having the contract resolved. Makes you feel better. Yeah, this is...

This is still a quality team. There's a whole lot of stars on it. I don't know how to feel about the defense, but I do think they can score enough points to get to 10-7. And if Amarius Mims can get healthy and lock down that right tackle spot, that would be absolutely huge for their offense.

Burrow is Burrow, and they have some real weapons. There's been some brain drain with the offensive staff, but this offensive staff has earned a lot of respect from me. It's not been my ideal offense or anything, but they, from what Taylor first did with Burrow when he was that first year of the starting Super Bowl run, I

i always thought it was a the term i always came back to is a super siloed offense if they were under center they were running the ball and i guess i bet you money they're running a zone run if they were gone they were passing the ball and they were just like a second down they're under center it was like 100 percent run it was it was just crazy their tells and tendencies and it's because joe burrow does not like to throw the ball from under center um as a long-legged bad athlete i kind of just want to be like burrow you're

much better athlete than me like go get your ass under center go do it man you could do this this is much easier but it's not fun it's hard to do it's a lot harder than people realize that's why golf gets a little bit more respect for me because how good he is at it whipping his head back and everything um but i i just thought that this bangles coaching staff every year they the next year in 2022 they started doing more gun runs and it really added to it last year i feel like they were going to try to do some stuff the 49ers game you could see some tweaks

I want to say they played the Cardinals as well. And you can see they did some tweaks as well, which is what they're putting Jamar Chase more in the slot, more than the number three spot. You know, they do like a one by three formation tight ends, a solo receiver. And then they they put slot or chase basically where a tight end would normally be. And that worked a little bit. And I just like that they added stuff that they're just going, hey, status quo is OK.

The thing is, is Burrow healthy? Is he? I know we can say that he is and he's going to play and everything. It's just that there's a lot of warning signs here. He was messing with a glove, I believe. There's it just he keeps getting banged up with some stuff. So I just have some concerns with that. I do trust him. I do trust the staff, though, that they're going to do some fun stuff. I think the run game will still be efficient no matter who's the running back because of just the looks they get because of Burrow and these receivers, the respect they get from other teams. So.

But my negatives is, is Joe okay? How will the back end play on defense? They gave up so many explosive plays last year. One of the most leaky defenses in the league. Can they stop the run? Not really the questions you want. Is your quarterback healthy? Can you stop the run? And can you stop giving up explosive passes? So not really the questions you want to have, but I do like him. I do like the offensive layers, move and chase around. I like Mims, like you mentioned him. He's a little nice insurance, even if he's battled injuries already.

um but i'm still gonna go under 10 and a half wins even if i think this team is more of a nine win ten win team that still is technically under ten and a half so that's how i ended up on the bangles yeah the young player outside of like ameris mims and maybe miles murphy to watch i would say this is this might be a deep cut chase brown their fifth round last year uh good shout dude if if

I remember I started looking into him because I traded him to Solak in our fantasy league. Solak always starts mad. Yeah, dude, he was taunting me about it. I was like, man, what the hell is this? Let me go check this guy out. And yeah, he's not bad. And I think that

Zach Moss did not play well last year when he was in for Jonathan Taylor with the Colts. I think that this running back room is not all that inspiring, but maybe Chase Brown can be a guy that the fantasy nerds and the stats nerds would say, see, this is why you should never, ever take a running back before the fourth round. Hey, I don't know who's advanced, who's part of the money ball trend and

It was the old Mike Tice. Took a bunch of running backs in the fourth round, drafted a bunch of defensive linemen, the Randy ratio. You know, check it up to your best player. Yeah, he was on the forefront. I was a big Muelde Moore guy in Madden. Legitimately one of my favorite.

Legitimately, like, it's kind of a little bit of a meme or running joke for me, but legitimately one of my favorite football players ever. Just one of the smartest football players I've been around. Yeah, running back, too. And just could do everything. Love me some Wildey Moore. All right, we got one more team. Oh, you did. Yeah, I do. Charlie Jones, their second year receiver. Good returner. I do want to give him a shout out. All right, last team. We almost did it. 15-16. We're on 16 now. That is the Baltimore Ravens. 10.5 wins. The defending...

AFC wins total winner. AFC North champion. AFC North champion. Thank you. They won the President's Cup, which is, you know, they got the most wins. We'll go with the Ravens. Where are you at with them right now, Charles, with the Ravens? I'm thinking slightly over. They're in the same conundrum as the other three teams where they all have to play each other. So, you know, you're going to start beating each other to death a little bit as the season goes along. But

I know we talked about the offensive line concerns. I'm still concerned. I don't really get why it's crazy to be concerned about the offensive line. Like, dude, you're telling me you're starting a guy who was who's a second year seventh round pick next to Ronnie Stanley. Yeah, I'm going to be a little concerned about that. But they have Lamar Jackson. They have Derrick Henry.

i would say if you needed to any two players in your backfield to deal with a terrible or a shaky offensive line those are probably two of the best things you can get literally one of my bullet points you verbatim took it right off yeah thank you god but literally a point i was gonna make too because dude honestly what what i love as you know as as a millennial football fan someone who started watching the game in

Like 2000, that Ravens first Super Bowl year was basically I started watching football. I still love these guys who can take like 300 carries every year and they keep coming back. And do Derek Henry still a good player, even with all the mileage on his body? Now you get concerned, like, could you fall off a cliff at any second? Maybe. But I do think that even playing with someone like Lamar will help, you know, make his career a little bit longer.

Receiver room a little shaky. We'll see what happens with Rashad Bateman and Dave Flowers. But I still love the defense. I don't see why Trenton Simpson can't just come in and do the same exact thing that Patrick Green was doing last year. Point somewhere, you go there, and you be fast and hit someone. Pick the center. Thank you. That's what he was really good at last year.

Yeah, the negatives first, I'll start with them, is the offensive line. I put it as lack of offensive line solidification, just to change up the terms. But they're trying to figure out how to get their best five out there. I know Linderbaum's battled some injuries and he's coming back. But, you know, they're starting Roger Rosengarten, the tackle from Washington, who I liked him, but I wasn't as high as some other people. Some people were acting like Mel Kiper as a first-rounder. I looked at him, kind of where he ended up going.

And he's solid. He has some pedigree with him, and I like him. But also just – Ronnie Stanley isn't what he used to be, which was, to me, one of the best non-quarterbacks in the league. It was just unfortunate. It was just the injury and everything. He's still up and down with that. So it's just questions there. Like you said, though, they have the best quarterback to mitigate this and the best running back to mitigate this. This is what these two do in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. I'm so excited to see this run game, see the layers that Todd Munkin adds to the offense.

How the receivers shake out, as anyone guess. Of course, I like Rashad Bateman, but he's a great route runner, but it's all just about being on the field, all being reliable and being out there. How the defense handles a brain drain. I like Zach Gore for great things, but it's just really hard to replace that many assistants. It's just hard. It's just being an organizational leader, right?

It's just a really hard thing. It's being a victim of that success. So that's why I just have concerns. But then I look at the back end, it's Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton, two actual star players.

biggest needle mover defenders in the entire league. And then they got Marcus Williams, Eddie Jackson behind that to make plays. They still got Humphreys. They got cool DBs. I forgot they signed Eddie Jackson. Right? And that's cool. Because they're going to do so much funky stuff that they can just... They're going to make some plays. They might get caught a couple of times, but they're going to be able to really do some damage. So...

I struggle with them because it's not like I hate them or I'm super low on them. I think they take a step back, but I still think this is a really good team because they have a freaking quarterback and they have some good play callers and some good pieces on both sides. Just want to see what the layers that they're adding. I want to see how Rosengarten plays, how the whole offensive line plays. I ended up

Originally had under and then I chickened out went over because it's like am I really gonna bet against Lamar? They're really gonna bet against this wrong game that I think will be fun and really bet against these defensive players that I really like so I end up being it over even if the playoff run might be sketchy Still thinks it's a good team. How'd you end up over on it over on over? Yeah, I think like 11 and 6 sounds right It's just a tough division

uh but man i i i still get so excited when i look at the defense man i i know that i'm concerned about the brain drain but they might just have enough good players where they could protect against real dudes like not just like oh that's a good player it's a guy that it doesn't matter who the coach is helps you out 99 overalls you know yeah yeah yeah and and because man like

Because I go back 20 times, maybe even more than 20, probably close to like 40 or 50 times. I've gone back and I've watched that Mahomes to Kelsey touchdown on Kyle Hamilton.

in the AFC title game. And dude, it's just a perfect play by three players, you know? It's 399. You can't cover it. Right. You can't cover it any better than that. But then you get, like you said, getting the Marcus Williams, getting the Marlon Humphrey, Roquan Smith is still here, Trent Simpson, who the young player I wanted to point out,

I don't see why he can't just do the same thing that Patrick Queen was doing. It's kind of the same thing. Yeah, no, that's a great call. No, Simpson's a great call. He's a good player. That was a great shout-out with you. Yeah. We didn't mention Matt BK, Owe, like all these guys. Our Collie Collivan. Collie Collivan. Yes, yes. I know. We didn't even give him a shout-out. So Yahoo's very own. Travis Jones.

Like, you know, they have guys. That's why I come back to it. It's like, oh, yeah, they're taking a step back. Who's stepping up? Well, all right. That works. That's better than most. So, yeah, sticking with that over there. All right. Wow. Wow. Thank you, everybody that stuck with us there as we got through 16 AFC teams.

Hopefully, you know, got through a couple of commutes on this pod. We'll be back on Thursday, which will last us probably till, you know, next year through these two podcasts. We'll be back with the NFC on Thursday. I'm Nate Tice. You can find me at Nate underscore Tice on social media. That is Charles McDonald. You can find you where, Charles? At 4vert. 5.3. Kind of lying low a little bit until the season starts. I like that.

By lying low, you're creating a new college football coach. Yes. I literally have a huge spreadsheet with builds that I've been running through for our dynasty. I just found out there's a couple of board games I like on Steam. And so I'm going to try and talk to some people to buy these $10 games and play with me maybe once or twice and then never play it again. But if you like this, if you like two hour shows about the AFC, subscribe to us.

Follow us, rate us, watch us on YouTube, on the Yahoo Sports YouTube channel. You also find us on Snapchat too, if you're into that kind of thing. But it's Football 301. These are lectures. Of course it's going to be out there. But hopefully it was a little bit fun. Send in some mailbag questions to football301mailbag at yahoosports.com. Emails are great. Voice notes are better. Thanks to Brett Stone and Adi.

who survived. I always stoned it. Stone survived this entire journey that we took through the AFC. But thank you guys behind the scenes. Thank you all for listening. We will see you on Thursday with the AFC. Thanks again. See you guys later. Oh my goodness.