Final 2024 season predictions: Super Bowl, MVP, more awards
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On this episode of Football 301, we give out our awards and our previews for each division. Matt Harmon and Charles McDonald join me as we finally launch into the season with our final predictions. See you guys in a sec.

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Our last preview prediction before preseason show, before we hit the NFL regular season, which starts on Thursday with the juicy Chiefs Ravens matchup. But today we're going to be giving our last little predictions here. Let's a little breaking the bottle before we get into the season. MVP offensive player of the year,

comeback player of the year, division winners, Super Bowl champion, all the good stuff to help me do that for a three-man weave.

As we get into this season, we have Matt Harmon. How are you doing today, Matt? I'm doing good. Yeah, it feels like we've been making these predictions for about five months now. So I'm ready to put the prediction business aside and actually start talking about some games. But for one last ride, I'm happy to be here. One last ride is right. And the third person on that last ride, Mr. Virts himself, Charles McDonald. How are you doing today, Chuck?

I'm doing good. I just got up off the couch for the first time since Thursday. So I've watched so much football this weekend. I literally did not leave my apartment. Got a bunch of food delivered. The mighty Georgia Bulldogs have once again, they have claimed their path towards dominance on the rest of you feeble college football fans. So we are fully back, my friend. And it's a beautiful weekend. Jalen Walker, Jalen Walker, number 11th.

Standing out. He made my top 20. Yeah. If I hit one of them, at least. They went too far last year in the game by doing the double spies on Jalen Milrow, but just let him cook off the edge. He's good. I went to the USC-LSU game, which was a lot of fun. Good showing from USC fans, which makes sense being in Vegas, but LSU fans, of course, traveled

Very, very, very well. Got some good quarterback play, too. So that was fun. Good. That's an upside living in Vegas. Just get these games. Just get these random. Oh, want to go to USC, LSU? Oh, yeah. Me and my dad figured that out like six days ago. It was great. But anyways, like I said before. Who was the drunkest LSU fan you saw? Oh.

There is an old man, I would say over 70. I was coming out of the bathroom and I just see a wheelchair and I see all these medics. I'm like, oh, God, like the guy's like 70. And I'm like, oh, man, this guy's dehydrated. And he was hot in Vegas and all that. And then I just saw, you know...

you know, a little urine stain going from, you know, the crotch all the way down. And his son, his son's just gone. His son's just gone. We just get you water pops. We'll just get you water. And I was like, oh man, you know, it's, it was hot and everything. And the daughter just goes, we shouldn't have been doing those shots.

And then that's, and then that's all I heard. And as I walked by and I was like, Oh, that was an hour before the game, 45 minutes before the game started. It was right when we got to the stadium. So yeah, that was, that was a good one. I mean, you got a four 30 kickoff in Vegas. Anything past one is dangerous. Yeah, I know it's, it's dicey there, but.

Yeah, that was good. Yeah, yeah. Plenty of good games. We'll get to plenty of college talk later. But this is the NFL's time. Of course it is. It's always the NFL's time. It's a year-round sport. But this is our final predictions for the season. Like I said before, we're going to do awards, all the good ones, do some division winners, do some other stuff in there if we have the time.

Also, if you have the time, there's big news. If you like money, hurry up. We only have a couple more days. Yahoo Sports, NBC Sports. That was like an 8 out of 10. All right, teaming up for a million-dollar sweepstakes. All you got to do is sign up for a Yahoo Fantasy League for instant entry. Someone's got to win a million bucks after week one. Only one more day by the time you hear this. So, yes, go check it out. Details at yahoo.com slash fantasymillion. So we are going to pick each award. We'll start with some good ones.

as my old co-host Robert would say, the best actor, best supporting actor, best actress before we got to the best picture as we get through these awards, which is MVP and all that good stuff. And then we're going to have our little dark horse selection for each one. So

If you didn't have like a chalky pick or someone that's under 20 to one, we'll call it. No. So anywhere from favorite to 19 to one. Okay. That's going to be your normal selection. And then you'll have a dark horse. If any, any bombs 20 to one or more, we use bad MGM for all of these. Okay. We're going to start off enough to housekeeping. Let's get to this offensive player of the year, Matt Harmon. Who is your pick for offensive player of the year and your dark horse? If you want to throw it in there as well.

Yeah. My pick for offensive player of the year is going to be CD lamb Dallas Cowboys wide receiver, because I mean, my God, if they're going to have a functional offense, maybe just a functional football team, he's going to have to go absolutely berserk this year. He already went absolutely berserk last year. So we know he's capable of that kind of season. My dark horse though, is Garrett Wilson, who,

I think is talented enough to make a very CD lamb type of jump where last year I would have put CD lamb kind of at the top of the tier two receivers in the league. He was right there. Like the first guy left off the tier one list. I think that guy's probably Garrett Wilson this year, uh, who is right up there at the top of tier two to me, but I think has the talent ability and potential to make that jump to tier number one. Uh, so I think if, again, if the jets are going to make the playoffs, which I,

Spoiler alert, I do have them as a playoff team. If they're going to make that jump, it's going to be because the Aaron Rodgers-Garrett Wilson connection was as on fire as it possibly could be, and I think that's probably what's going to happen this year.

You're extrapolating that one drive from preseason last year. It should look good. It looked awesome, man. It looked great. I can picture it in my mind. I'm like, oh, this is going to look just like Devontae Adams. This is going to look great. I like that pick a lot. That one was staring at me at the Dark Horse selection. I did not go with it, but I really do like that pick. Charles.

Offensive player of the year. Who you got? I went with B. John Robinson from the Falcons. I didn't really feel like this was a homer pick. I just think he's going to have a huge season. Even if you're moving away from a scheme that seemed ideal for him last year with Arthur Smith and moving forward to Zach Robinson, I think just having Kirk Cousins just

It alleviates so much pressure from the offense. Even if he's not like, you know, a bona fide elite quarterback, just like having an adult in the room makes a whole, like a big amount of difference from where they were last year. So I'll go with B. John Robinson. I think he's going to have a big year on the ground, big year through the air too. Hopefully he's figured out how to run some of those choice routes that he really struggled with. Oh, man. This dude. Hug that sideline, man. Holy crap. His GPA on those looked like mine in college. He is...

insane at so much and it's just this one weird thing this one weird trick he can't do it's like yeah the weirdest thing yeah I don't know but I think this is gonna be a big year for him my dark horse I didn't look quite at the odds for the dark horse but I so I don't know exactly where he is but I went with Nico Collins from Houston Texans

All right. It's pro football 301 favorite, Nico Collins. Very, very, very pro Nico Collins podcast. The only thing that kept me like,

be a little more hesitant on this. I'm not sure if he's going to have all the targets he needs to put up the numbers for offensive player of the year, but at the very least, I think this could be probably the most efficient wide receiver season in the league this year, outside of whatever's going on in San Francisco, because they've hacked it.

That's what you never know. Odds wise, Diggs has better odds to win this award than Nico does. So it's that's a first pick. And Bijan technically counts as a dark horse because it's 20 to one. So you're giving all the dart throws. You never know. I'm with you on the Nico Collins. I think we're all fans. It's the usage is just that those Shanahan offenses, sometimes the X receivers, Andre Johnson usage is.

Or Julio usage. You know, of course, those guys are all-time guys. I'm not saying Nico Collins is a Hall of Famer quite yet. Or sometimes it's Ayuk.

you know, where it's it's hyper efficient, but it's X amount of targets that are way, way lower amount of usage than than maybe the other top guys. So I kind of split you guys here. Now, I feel kind of like a fraud. My pick, though, is CD lamb at ten to one. Also, just looking at the Cowboys, what they did last year using CD and moving him around or using him more on the outside would say when he was outside, they used him more. It wasn't like he'd lined up more on the outside.

But also just looking who else is with the Cowboys offense going, where else are all the targets going? Okay, Ferguson or a little bit of Cooks, Tolbert.

Who else we got in here? You know, that's I'm trying to figure out the running game should be it. So I think it's just gonna be a heavy passage pass where you get a lot of targets, much like last year, especially the last 12 weeks last year. My darker selection at 20 to one is Bijan Robinson, which is also one that I like as just a normal pick. So I kind of feel like I'm cheating here. But everything you guys said, I also like Jonathan Taylor a little bit.

at plus 3,500. I think that run game is going to be really, really good. I'm very excited with the Colts' spoilers for the rest of the show. All right, moving on to the defensive side of the ball. Defensive player of the year, Charles

Since you play D-line, I don't know what you start with this one. Who is your pick for Defense Player of the Year? Micah Parsons. I don't think I need to explain this one. But I will say, I'm pretty excited to see what he looks like in Zimmer's defense. Not that I imagine that his role will change all that much. Please just pin your ears back and go get after the rusher. But if they're just a little bit more structured on defense...

maybe that could put him in situations where he has like just a split second that he needs to, to get home and actually make plays. Cause I remember the, like towards the back half of the season, there was some reckless Michael Parsons takes it. Oh, he's disappearing in big games. Can't count in the playoffs. Do we want to pay? Yes. Yes. He, he is that good. He absolutely do. There's no question. And I think if you go back and watch the games, like his performance didn't really fall off. It's just,

When you're a one-man show on a very leaky defense, it's pretty easy to avoid you. If we're rushing the passer, we got to look out for Micah Parsons. But like Trayvon Diggs is out, your linebackers are 190 pounds. That's pretty easy to mitigate. So I think this would be a better situation for him. I think he's going to put up some monster stats this year. I'll go with him as my defense player of the year selection. For my dark horse, I went with...

continue with the georgia bulldogs team i went jalen carter from the eagles uh yeah i i i i want that was minus a thousand that you were going to pick this one like yeah for this one yeah falcon and a bulldog so far so we're right on schedule i went i went back uh i actually went back this past weekend before like all the college football started i went back and i just watched like

Let's call it some of the first half of his season from last year. Dude, he was unblockable. He was unblockable. And then at some point, he just hit a wall, and it wasn't quite the same. So I'm going to extrapolate. Let's call it the first half of the season he had last year over a full season slate. We'll give him my dark horse defensive player of the year pick.

I think he's at 50-1 right now. It's not a terrible one, man. You got to be on a winning team. And who knows how the defense is going to be, but I like it. All right, Matt, who do you have on the defensive side, ball, defensive player that you're picking?

Yeah, I went with Aiden Hutchinson. We talked about this one a little bit on the NFC show, Nate, where I think he's got the name recognition. You know, they're shouting out his frickin parents on broadcasts. So people know who he is. I think the Lions are going to be really, really good this year. I think they're also when we're trying to parse out credit for when the Lions have a big year.

I think offensively they have so many guys who can kind of cannibalize each other. Nobody's going to give Jared Goff MVP. So it's like, well, we got to give something to the Lions. How about Aiden Hutchinson, defensive player of the year? Because he's going to have the production. I think the defense –

will take a step. Excited about some of the defensive backs that they added this year. So overall, I think they can play more of what Aaron Glenn wants. And I wanted to go something a little bit different. He's plus 1,000, so it's not quite dark horsey, but it's at least a little bit different. For dark horse, I went way off the board and I went Brian Burns just because I think that he –

is the new face there in New York and that defensive line is going to be ferocious. It doesn't really add up because I don't have the Giants being a good team this year, but that's not going to be the defense's fault. So there we go. That's kind of my feeling on them too. Yeah, Brian Burns I had a couple years ago as kind of one of my dark horse guys. He's always in that 50 to 1 range and I'm always like,

You see all those sacks like like that just to the moon to the moon. We're going to bet on this. Yeah, but no great call. I like that one. I this is always hard because you need sacks these days. Like it's hard for a DB as much as I well spoilers for my dark dark horse pick but you need sacks and you need to be on a winning team slash a very good defense or a standout defense. That's kind of been the trend. You kind of need to be a guy that's been known for this like, okay, it's a build up to you to win the award.

Why I'm saying all this is why I think it's Micah Parsons or that's my pick as well. It's chalk plus, you know, 550, you know, Charles kind of hit it. But I think in Zimmer's defense, that is a little more sound as a four, three D end. Also in those double mug looks where he's lined up over the center. I'm really excited to see him in those when Daniel Hunter was in this type of defense. He was getting 12 and a half sack season, 14 and a half, 14 and a half defense.

Daniel Hunter's good, very good. And Micah Parsons, I think, is much better as a pass rusher, as good as Hunter is. Parsons is that much better. I'm very excited. I just think this defense has some teeth, even if they do have a couple holes. But I do think he can rack up some stats. I'll put him over the top of that award. Dark Horse?

Hey, I just mentioned his name. Daniil Hunter at plus 3,500. Yeah, just the same thing. Even if Will Anderson. Will Anderson to me is more of Khalil Mack-ish where it's like eight and a half sacks. Very good against the run. Where I think Daniil can maybe get the sack numbers that get him that narrative with the Texans. Oh, look at this team. Double digit wins. The match, the star quarterback over there. The new player that we signed. All these types of things. So that...

Jalen Carter is a great one. Off-ball players, pick one. Kyle Hamilton, Fred Warner. That's if you want a dark horse, like dart throw. It's just hard. It's just hard to pick one that's not like a sack guy. No Max Crosby? I actually thought someone would throw him in there. No. I couldn't put him over Parsons. I couldn't do it. I did think about it, but I don't know. I thought that would be the alt pick.

As much as I love Crosby, there's a tear jump. Like, once you get to Micah Parsons, I feel like. He plays a lot of reps. So it's like, where can more stats come from to kind of match it? Also, like, how good are the Raiders going to be? Did not consider them as one of my wildcard picks and not have them in the AFC West. You didn't?

And again, I said the same thing about Brian Burns, but I think that's going to ultimately hold him back. So that's why I went Burns is a dark horse here. But yeah, I like good team, good, good team, probably better defense, at least improvement wise with Aiden Hutchinson. So that was my logic there. All right. Now we'll move back to offense. Offensive Rookie of the Year. This is a fun one, actually. Matt, we'll start with you. Who is your pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year this year?

It's really hard for this award to go to anything other than a quarterback. Kyler Murray had like an

all right season, you know, uh, that one year that he ended up winning it over Josh Jacobs, who was just like extremely productive. So I went quarterback here. I went boring. Uh, I went with Caleb Williams, uh, as my, as my pick, I went with Drake may as my dark horse though. And I think that, and this is not pandering to you, Nate Tice. Um, it's not, I, I think they have to just be like a mid-level team. Uh, cause again, I like,

what's the point of me coming on here and saying like, Oh yeah, I don't know. This receiver is going to do it. I mean, even Marvin Harrison's like plus 700. He's not even really a dark horse for this award, which is kind of outrageous that, that he's even that high. And I, I, I consider Marvin Harrison as just my straight up pick, but for one, I think the bears are going to make the playoffs. I think the roster is really good and he just has so much to work with this Caleb Williams. So it's,

It didn't make sense to even go for another receiver as the dark horse because Xavier Worthy is not winning this award. I think Keon Coleman is winning this award or something like that. So I just went with another quarterback and Drake Mays odds were a little bit long enough to consider there. And I think he basically just has to get on the field in like week two, week three and survive, make a bunch of big plays and survive and have the Patriots be a little bit better than their expected win total, which I think is possible. And I think he could end up winning this award.

Oh, just music to my ears. The, uh, I think if you just looked at the schedule, it's probably week five. That's that's, that looks like the prime spot, but we'll see. We'll see. I like that. They said they're assessing it. They're assessing the old line week, day by day. They said, uh,

So we'll see. I think he's too good. How do you feel if you're an offensive line on an offensive lineman on that team? We're like, when are we just, when are we just not terrible enough to get the quarterbacks killed or at least the right quarterback? Well, I've been thinking, how do you think Jacoby Brissett feels where they're just like, Oh dude, we can't put Drake behind them. They'll get killed. Yeah. Right. Yeah.

32 doesn't mean I want to get hit a bunch. This went from, oh man, Jacoby reset's our best quarterback. And like, we're going to play our best quarterback now. Like, well, we'll just play him until, you know, he's, he's, he's straight up. So he's been better. He was like, no, he's been better, but as soon as he said that, I was like, oh, okay, this is a, yeah, this is cannon fodder. This is, this is just, all right, let's eat some wraps. Make sure we're good here. Oh, okay. Drake. Yeah. So it's all sealed up now. It's all good to go. Uh,

Oh, yeah, I know. I actually, when I opened up my doc, I thought my pick, which is Marvin Harrison Jr., was going to be chalk. Just in my head, I was like, oh, this is easy. And he's plus 700.

And if I were a betting man, which I was, now I can't be, by the way. Yeah, but he's at plus 700. I really like that. But it's all the Cardinals' optimism. I think he's going to eat the lion's share of those targets, or at the very least, him and McBride in some way, shape, or form. I think that he can score in the red zone, so he'll have touchdown production. He'll get some of the fantasy recognition. I'm not saying he's going to break a record or do anything like that, but even if he gets over, I would say Garrett Wilson plus,

rookie season numbers something of that sort like that i think that's more than enough i do like you said though caleb williams to me is set up for a kyler murray rookie type year that's kind of how in my head i think the team will be better but production wise that's how i'm picturing it so it's so funny you brought up that example because that's how i'm picturing in my head that's those two in the long run that those are two and caleb williams is at plus 130 uh uh favorite right now and then

That's pretty heavy. It's a rookie quarterback's party. I'm excited about all these guys, but I'm still trying to temper. It's like we haven't seen our Herbert rookie year in a few years now. I know Stroud came out in the second half of the year, but let's hold on for that first month. Stroud in the first month was like little flashes that we saw it.

And that's the crazy thing. It's like Stroud won this award when there was admittedly a day three rookie receiver, but a rookie receiver broke rookie records in Pukanakua and Stroud still won the award. Garrett Wilson won in 22. No good quarterbacks in the 2022 draft class or the 22 draft class. Then in 21, the number one overall pick was Trevor Lawrence, who was stuck with Urban Meyer at the time. So yeah, that's right. That my dark horse though. And this is a timeline I think Matt likes that.

It's Blake Corum at plus 66, plus 6,600. Just as a, hey, if Kyron Williams at 191 pounds can't handle the load, it's set up for a juicy situation if they get that health right in the line. Or whoever's playing at center. Like, no one loves switching centers more. I mean, it's like a hockey team. Like, with the line change, there's just switching centers. Like, oh, then Sean McVay.

Like they like Steve Avila might be playing center now or might not. They might be switching him back to guard and figuring it out with somebody else. Now it's oh, yeah. Yeah. So we got all that going on. Yeah. A week before the season starts. Still still still optimistic about the offense at least. All right, Charles, I skipped ahead of you.

We're going to you. Offensive rookie of the year, who is your selection? First, Caleb. I mean, we've been talking about how good he is. We've been talking about how good the situation is. He's plus 130. I don't know. It feels... And we've already seen it in action, too. We have proof of concept in the preseason. So I don't really feel a need to pick anyone else there. If I end up wrong...

I don't care. Process is fine. The dark horse here. Yeah. Okay. I'm really excited to see it because you kind of hinted that this is kind of stinky, right? Okay. Because for the rookie of the year ones, I went deep cut. So like plus 10,000.

Okay. Okay, well, this is only going back to last year when before we configured the new podcast structure, did a podcast with C. Robin Jory where I said the Colts were my dark horse team to make the playoffs because I think they're at like plus 10,000 at the time and they both made fun of me and they were one game away from making the playoffs. They were? I'm coming here with some credibility to my name. I'm going with Jalen Wright.

from the Miami Dolphins. Oh, baby. That's a deep cut. And I've got to say,

Not, it wasn't a big fan of him as a prospect, but I think we talked about it on this show a couple of weeks ago where I can't think of a more perfect landing spot for a blind running back that runs fast as hell than the Miami Dolphins. Because like, bro, you ask him to get between the tackles and run a gap scheme. That's not going to look pretty. But if you put him with Mike McDaniel and Mike McDaniel says, bro, you run to your left and I swear to God,

The sea will part for you. This is a great situation for him. I don't know if he can reach like 8 chans. What was like 8, 7 yards per carry last year. But like you said about Blake Corum, 8 chans are still dinged up with some injuries. Raheem Ostertz, he's, you know, he's 30 plus years old. There's a scenario here where Jalen Wright ends up taking more carries than people expect. And if Michael Daniels is still as good as he is.

could be some explosive runs in there that's my deep cut i love that because there is a timeline no not a ton you know dr strange levels uh but there does that i because he's the only one that's over like 200 pounds first off like and those guys like you said always do get hurt i as someone that one time on a podcast said eli mitchell was my dark horse to win most russian yards before cmc trade happened that i understand building this argument

hey, there's a path. It's a Shanahan offense. He's the only one with what stands it. We've seen...

shoot Ron Dane be productive in this type of offense. So yeah, this is a new age version. I like it. I like the argument build. So I can see why you're excited to get to it. Yeah. I don't believe it too much, but it's not, I like it. Yeah. That's why it's what it's plus 10,000. Yeah. Yeah. Nice little, nice little a hundred to one shot. If anyone wants it, I mean, the guys, the guys, the third back of the depth chart, and he's been a top 50 running back taken in fantasy all summer, just because people know that this timeline does exist. So it's not outrageous. Outrageous. Yeah.

A-Chain is just like the best. Like, I wish A-Chain was 200 pounds because he actually he's a good running back. Like as far as like vision and tempo, it's just that he's just a little pint size, little pint size guy. But this is the total opposite. Yeah, just rip it and go toss him the ball and go. Oh, speaking of stinky picks, let's go to a stinky award here. Kick comeback player of the year.

Who wants honors on this one? I already gave my picks for Offense Rookie of the Year because I jumped in for H.R. I was too excited about my segue. Comeback Player of the Year. I'll start with you, Matt.

who's your pick here for a comeback player of the year? I don't even know you need a dark horse. Just give me a couple, a couple of dart throws. You guys, if you ever were the sickos to bet on comeback player of the year before the season, I just went with Rogers. Cause like, again, I have the jets making the playoffs. I think Garrett Wilson's a dark horse to be offensive player of the year. I don't think he has to do that much. Like I think he,

there's already this baked in assumption that he's just going to make the jets like go. And, but now I think there's been enough doubt built in that we haven't seen it for an entire season. All he has to do is basically be like about 85% of what people wanted him to be last season for the jets. And I think he wins this award pretty easily. Oh, after last year's chalk pick with Hamlin, I kind of felt like he kind of just,

I mean, what do you want to do? Anything is possible, right? Anything is possible here. What the hell was that last year? I thought we were all in agreement that someone who died on the football field and came back to life to play in another NFL game. What are we doing?

I mean, players get hurt. Their knees, ankles, Achilles give out all the time. That was wrong, NFL voters. I thought they were going to fall for the Disney story and they didn't do it. So maybe I don't know my colleagues as well as I thought I did. The Flacco thing is just... It wasn't even...

I thought it was great, but it wasn't that great. Like, I'm going to vote for him. Ha ha. And it's like, oh, you did. No, you really did. I think enough. Too many people did it as a bit. They must have a bunch of people that are like, let's do this as a joke. Like, it's kind of an anti Deshaun Watson thing, which is certainly acceptable to do at this point. So I think just too many people didn't realize we were all making the same joke.

Charles, do you have a joke to make for your pick? I just do. We threw character out the window when Joe Flacco got that award. That's all I'll say. They had to clarify what this award was, right? Dude, I think Flacco last year was like, eh, not sure if I deserve that, but okay. Keep it moving. When he started like five games, too. Dude, yeah. Comeback player of the year. It's supposed to be a whole year. A whole year.

- Oh yeah, everything building to that point. Not just that you were signed off the street to save a season.

uh for my comeback player of the year award i literally just flipped the coin between kirk cousins and rogers landed on rogers so rogers is going to be my comeback player of the year for for my main pick dark horse i'm going with nick chubb um oh dude i don't know what the hell this is going to look like after because it's me like this this is basically the second time in his career that he's had a knee injury like this because he had one in college too so who knows what it looks like but if he like

can do the superhuman thing again and come back and be bowling over people and still produce explosive runs. To me, that would be a hands down comeback player of the year. But the injury is just so severe. I think that's why ESP put us at Dark Horse. On the Achilles coin flip.

Yeah, that's a decent one. Yeah, the Chubb thing, I just don't know what the timeline is. I was just starting off the season with this, and it's just more serious. You're older, all these types of things. But yeah, I want to see him back, even if I have Jerome Ford on every Dynasty League I'm in. All right. I have, kind of my chalky pick is Joe Burrow.

It's just from everything that happened last year. If the Bengals have a path, you know, have a good offense, everything's hunky dory and they make the playoffs out, then that's a nice, easy pick for everything to, you know, give him another thing for his mantle along with played Patrick Mahomes. Well.

Another thing is Kyler Murray. If anyone's listened to this pod and listen to anyone talking about the Cardinals, my Marvin Harrison Jr. pick, Kyler Murray is kind of makes sense. He's at 20 to one coming back halfway through last season. No one watched the Cardinals game. Maybe outside made that Eagles game.

And I think that this is kind of like, oh, he's back. Oh, if they have a good season, a positive offense season, you can see him as a comeback player of the year candidate if he has the ups that I think this Cardinals offense can hit, even though if it's the run game, a little more bullshit. All right, because I couldn't – I liked my segue too much. I skipped one, and that was defensive rookie of the year. And again, Charles, defensive side of the ball, I'm going to give you honors here. Who –

is your pick for defensive rookie of the year and a dark horse if you want to get a little fancy. Chalk pick, I'm going to go with Dallas Turner, Vikings pass rusher. Is that a dark horse? Because to me it feels like a... It's Chalk. Him and Lots are the favorites at 4-1.

Well, you know, Flores, he's going to have the chance to rush like that. That's that's without a doubt. So I just think if he can stay healthy, there's just going to be too many opportunities for him. Just rush a passer and put up some solid numbers. So I'll go with him for my chalk pick. I debated a lot, too, as well. But I think Turner's just a little bit more explosive than athletes. So.

Think that will help him in year one just to kind of chase some new sacks home. So I want him I for the dark horse I want the junior Colson linebacker from the charge. Yeah Because I feel like the defense is so hard to especially in the NFL like defense if you're gonna be a rookie starter at linebacker on defense

One thing that will really help you is playing with the same exact coaching staff you did last year in college. So it's not like the good transition. This is not like a whole new setup for Junior Colson. Chargers linebackers have been bad for a long time. So I doubt that anyone on that roster is even going to push him, even if he's bad.

for starting spot. So for this dark horse pick, I was just kind of like, well, who's going to put up a bunch of numbers of these guys? A starting linebacker for any NFL team is at least going to have tackle numbers. So put Junior Colson there, hoping that playing for the same staff that he did in Michigan with the Chargers is going to help him out. And that's my dark horse pick. That was my dark horse too. And it's tough just because inside linebackers, in general, off-ball linebackers used to win this award all the time.

all the time from 2004 to 2012. It was Jonathan Vilma, Sean Merriman, D'Amico, Ryan's Patrick Willis, Gerard Mayo, man, current head coach, and Brian Cushing. That was 2004 to 2009. And then, and then, yeah, right. And then Keekly in 2012, but he's the last like off ball linebacker to win it. So it, you got to really, depending on what you thought about, like what Micah Parsons was in his rookie season, but like it

It would be a bit of a stretch to see an off-ball linebacker win this, but I don't think we have that many true. I mean, there wasn't a defensive player picked so late into the first round, so we don't have that many transformational pass rushers, which is why I thought it might make sense as a dark horse. Yeah, that's kind of the same time. I just thought that he would get maybe good tackles and some empty calories tackles that can add up over the season because I'm like, who else is making tackles there?

Charles, you brought up the easy transition for the defense. That's probably why they prioritize getting them. Like, hey, we need linebackers now and we need linebackers. Hey, what's somebody to help us out? Because it might be a little rough transition this year. So right there with you guys. I, yeah, Matt, it's looking at the old history of the linebackers almost made me sad. He's like, oh yeah, this guy was great. Someone posted Luke Keekly coverage highlights this week.

I saw that too. It was like, wonderful. It was just wonderful. It's like, I miss this. It's a lot of under center. Oh, under center passes. Dropbacks probably helped out too, but yeah, man. Yeah. For your normal pick though, was that your straight up pick for defense or who's outside junior Colson?

Yeah, that was my dark horse pick. I should also mention that Shaq Leonard won it in 2018 as defensive rookie of the year. But yeah, no, Leatu Latu, speaking of the Colts, is my actual pick, which again is pretty chalky, but I think he's the exact type of edge rusher they need. I think he's polished enough, fundamentally sound enough as a pass rusher to actually really make an instant impact. And I think it's a defense that

Secondary is still pretty rough to look at on paper. They're going to need the pass rush to step up to kind of make good on a lot of the hopes that I think you, Nate, might have for them and I might have for them, too, in terms of them being a playoff team. So I think, again, the fact that he's so fundamentally sound as a player, I think is going to allow him to make that instant impact and be the winner of this award.

Yeah, both of you guys were going with Latu and Turner. Obviously, because of first-round picks, I looked at those as well. Like, for Latu, it's the perfect defense for him to go to because he's different from all the big guys they have. He's going to get set up for...

true one-on-one edge rushes because Buckner having a guy like Buckner next to him, it really helps because he just has the size and mauling stuff that you get inside him over. Cause Turner to me is like a, he's like Bruce Irvin, super Bruce Irvin. So it's like a, I know Bruce Irvin had like a bunch of sacks early on in his career, but like what he ended up being where it's that six to eight sack guy drops into coverage a bunch. That defense might be funky, but so that's why I kind of went away from maybe getting, I think he's gonna be really good for that scheme. So I'll,

I went different first rounder, went inside, went Byron Murphy for the Seahawks, 10-1. I'm really coming around the Seahawks defense. I think a lot of us have. And this is, I think with the other guys they have, same argument for Latu. A bunch of big bruisers next to him can let him just shoot the gap. He's a lot better. He's more stout against the run, even if he is quote-unquote unbeatable.

not ideal size, even though he's still a big dude. I think he's just going to get some numbers. He's going to have some explosive plays, standout plays that will help make his case as well with the numbers. And I think that defense and that team is going to be a little bit better spoilers than maybe their odds are. So I went with Murphy. Maybe again, you have to build a narrative. And I got a Seahawks defensive narrative in my head and

And we'll see that right now as we go to coach of the year. Again, another sicko award. If you're betting preseason coach of the year, seek help.

because who wants to start with this one uh we'll go we'll go with you matt yeah who is your pick for coach of the year dark horse whatever i feel like having a dark horse is kind of silly for this award just dark throws could be anybody i went with shane steichen though as the award winner because i think the offense is going to be good i think i've been making the playoffs as a wild card team and i think the the the texans are going to win the division and be

one of the best teams in the AFC. Spoiler alert for some things I'm going to say here pretty soon. But again, offense is going to be good in Indianapolis. If Anthony Richardson is an above average starting quarterback in the league, I think Steichen is going to get a lot of credit for that because the narrative around Richardson is that he is a raw developmental project. He's certainly a guy that needs some

To iron out the kinks in his game, I don't think he is as raw from a processing or pocket management standpoint as most people do. So even if some of that is just Richardson is better than people think, I think Steichen will still get the credit for that. And then again, defensively, if that unit is able to kick it up a notch because Latu is a good edge rusher, I think that Steichen is going to get it.

A lot of credit for this team being very good. And I'm just like, the more I look at the Colts receivers, the higher I get on that unit as well, too. So there's just a lot coming together here that it's pointing up for the Colts. I'll give this award to Steichen.

Yeah, don't have to twist my arm on that pick. The QB whisper narrative is, if you have a winning season, QB looks good, look at Brian Dables, Coach of the Year award. Oh, he fixed Daniel Jones. Boom. Got it. Made the playoffs. Doesn't matter. Don't look at anything else. Don't look under the hood. But hey, we're going to get that award too. Get some retroactive credit for nearly making the playoffs with Gardner Minshew last year. Right. Oh, I like that too. Yeah. Charles.

Who'd you go for? Another stinky pick. I went with Kevin O'Connell.

So I just... The Sam Darnold, yeah, there we go. No, no, no, no. Okay, it's got something to do with Sam Darnold, but nothing to do with Sam Darnold at the same time. Actually, it's got a negative Sam Darnold connotation. And I'm just now realizing... Oh, that he overcomes Sam Darnold's play to make the playoffs? Yes. Because you know how people who vote on sports look at this as fan fiction, but okay.

The people who vote on this board, they don't actually look at the best coach in the league because otherwise it would just be Andy Recall Shanahan, Andy Recall Shanahan, Andy Recall Shanahan. But we don't do that. It's based on our preconceived notions who overcame the most. And when I look at this Vikings offense, like let's take quarterback out the equation for a second. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison.

Good enough off in Devine, running back, talent. Like, you should be able to score if Sam's just not like a complete F up this year. You should be able to score some points. And on the flip side, we know that Brian Flores is like a bona fide defensive play caller. He's figured out how to min-max the NFL. We're sending six, we're dropping eight every other play. So I still think that this will be a good team, a tough out, and if they can make the playoffs, it's going to be a good team.

he makes a play so i don't see why he wouldn't win the award because everyone knows his quarterback hang the banner not complete not a complete f up that's it it's like most most passing yards most touchdowns division titles wild card retired jersey numbers not a complete f up number nine and eight not a complete f up dice roll donald that's yeah we're going with that i know it's i i get it the vikings

there's an easy path for the vikings to like their own narrative for it that's all this is this award it's what narrative you can build before and sometimes they all make sense sometimes they come out of nowhere uh steichen is my gun to head pick but the one i i want to build more of an argument for and this is maybe this is my team of the summers that's seahawks and mike mcdonald this is a oh wow they're projected to win seven or eight games they make the playoffs wow that defense is so much better the offense is actually cohesive

And he gets his reputation is as a, you know, Wunderkin coach, like as an X is no guy, a scheme guy, guy. And so I could just see that argument get built for him, especially if the Seahawks have a positive year, which I think they will. I'm really coming around on them. So but McDonald, I just think that just continues with that, even if it's.

Not like maybe to like Iverflus' chalk right now, which I understand why. Like, you know, but it's again, it has to be an overwhelming season for him to get that where I think it's more like they, you know, nine, 10-ish spoilers kind of season. All right. So enough of that. Get into best picture now. MVP, most valuable player, in case you didn't know. Matt, start us off. Who is your pick? Who's your dark horse pick for MVP in 2024? Okay.

I'm going to see just drought as my pick for MVP. I just think this offense is set up to light the league on fire this year. The personnel is so good from a pass catching standpoint. You know, not only are they really good at the top at wide receiver, I actually think they're pretty deep in the receiver room as well. They could,

Hopefully not, but they could lose one of those guys to injuries. Yeah, like throw John Metchie out there. Xavier Hutchinson is still on this roster. Robert Woods is weirdly still on this roster. I mean, is he just around for vibes and veteran leadership and to block every now and again? He's trying to hassle him a little bit.

You know, he's got he's got a little bit of that going on right now. Like check Stefan Diggs every now and again. He's complaining about targets. I don't know what he's there for, but he is still on this roster. So they're rather deep at receiver. Even Dalton Schultz is like a forgotten man on this offense, but he's perfectly fine starting tight ends.

Great way of saying he's the Kirk cousins of tight. The Cowboys have kind of majored and the Kirk cousins of tight ends of late, but he's been able to go to Houston and carry over some of that production there as well. I think the run game will be better just because they have Joe Mixon back there. I think the offensive line all being healthy, you know, knock on wood will be good as well. But this comes back to Stroud and just how incredible of a player he was in the back half, but really over the course of his entire rookie season, he was super impressive and

You know, Nico Collins is like a fringe top 10 receiver to me, if not just a bona fide top 10 receiver. Diggs can still play. Tank Dell is an awesome player who, you know, you look at like his reception perception profile was incredible. Like one of the best wide receivers in the league and just getting open on these outbreaking routes. He just loves to throw those deep outbreaking routes. So everything just comes together for me.

to make the argument for CJ Stroud for MVP, I think that they can compete to be the best team in the conference. And then on the boring, you know,

dark horse side. Like if you're looking for a boring dark horse, like you kind of have to say Brock Purdy, like everything else goes wrong for all these other candidates. Yeah, that is boring. I said it was boring. I said it was boring. I said it was boring. I didn't didn't sell it as anything but boring, but a lot of the efficiency carries over from last year, you know, and some of these other top quarterbacks don't have the year there you're expecting and the

The voters like, well, he's done it two years in a row. The efficiency, maybe that comes back in and they give it to Purdy for the pure statistical case after you didn't get it last year. That's a good argument for that one. I like the Stroud one, especially after, uh,

him in the preseason. It's like, oh, you got any better? You're even better now. Oh, God. Oh, God. That's why it's fun to watch starters play in the preseason because then you actually get to see some stuff and go, oh, wow. Yeah, this is this is even better than last year. That's scary. Yeah, he's really young and really good. Like those a lot. Even if the dark horse pick is, yeah, I will. I

I said it was boring. I get it. You can't hate me if I gave you the disclaimer. I gave you the disclaimer. It was like, oh, you're mad that there's cursing on this album? The warning was there. Good process. As Charles says, good process for that one. Charles, do you have good process for your MVP picks? I'm actually really curious the arguments you're about to make here.

Mean for the first one my homes. I'm not gonna take any time. Okay The dark horse though, I'm gonna go with Matt Stafford Oh only because

Yeah, I think we alluded to it, or I alluded to it at the start of the show. The defense, man, you remove Aaron Donald from this group and it starts to look really, really bleak, like really, really fast. So I think that this is going to be a team that's probably giving up a lot of points, which is going to put Stafford in shootout situations, which leads to big stat lines. So I think that if he can weather the storm and still push out like,

11 or 12 win season with what this defense is projected to be that would obviously i i think that would that would suggest he had a pretty monster way uh a pretty monster like way throughout the season and i'm going to give him my dark horse pick just because i do think the offense will still be good i think they might be good enough where they can boy a terrible defense maybe but it's gonna be tough

I like the argument that the defense is so bad, juices up the passing numbers. So it's like, yeah, I know that's... I watched the Falcons for 10 years. Exactly. Yeah, you got those Pro Bowl nods. Yeah, when you're hitting 4,400 yards. Whenever you get to like 4,600, 4,400 yards and like 24 touchdowns, it's always like, or 22 touchdowns, it's always like... Sam Howell?

What's going on there? Yeah, that's the Sam Howell. The Bortles. Yeah, the king of it. No, I like that. We just made the joke about good process. I think the best process in awards betting is Patrick Mahomes to win MVP and the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. I think if you do that every single year, it is the best process you can do because sometimes boredom is the best. Talk about me for boring. I didn't even bother wasting time talking.

about it. It was great. It was great. I'm glad you did it because I was like, okay, good. Because I was like, really? That's just the best, easiest pick. I am not original. I'm just going to carry over my one from last year, which is Josh Allen at plus 850. Just a, because again, narrative in the head. Even if I think he's the second best player, this is more though like, wow, he is throwing safer and making better decisions.

He lost Stefan Diggs and still producing. They lost all the defensive talent, even if they still have some decent guys. But they were so much better, and they may be surprised when the AFC East...

yada yada yada you have to have a winning team you have to be up there so that also matters with it but that's my argument for alan that's more that the narrative catches up to what his play has been as far as more cerebral more accurate not as risky as people think he is and just a supernova dragon whatever writer metaphor i want to use here but that's what i'm going with josh allen but dark horse which i've hit up 40 times can't change now anthony richardson at plus 2800

that's a classic second year quarterback, new name, new face of the NFL narrative. Colts are surprised team. The offense does go top five. Like I think they do. The defense is a little better. So they're a better team overall. He has fancy numbers to back it up. He has the real football stuff that we geek out over. So yeah,

just like the Steichen argument, that's carrying over the Richardson thing for me as well as my Dark Horse pick. It might be a year early, maybe two years early, might be forever early on this one, but maybe a little narrative for Richardson this year. All right. That was a nice little... That was not a snack pack. That was a rotisserie meal. But we... It could be a snack pack. Yeah. We're going to do some quick hitters after the break and we'll see you guys in a sec.

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All right, we are back after that main course. This is a digestif of division winners, picks, Super Bowl picks, all that good stuff, conference finalists, because I just want to hear everyone's Final Four teams as well. I feel like there's always a gap. It's like division winners, Super Bowl winners. All right, well, who do you think is going to win in the playoffs? I think winning the playoff game is huge. All right, we'll do this quick. I'll start with a division. We'll go one after another. Give your pick. Give a little one-liner, and then we'll go from there. We'll start with the NFC North.

Matt, we'll start with you. NFC North pick. Who do you pick right now to win the division of the NFC North? Yeah, I'm going Lions, like I mentioned with Aiden Hutchinson. I think this team's going to be really good this year. So much continuity and continuity in all the important spots. So if you may just continue to build on what they've been doing, they win the NFC North. That's a good one. Charles? Green Bay Packers get the best quarterback in the division.

Oh, I love it. Good logic. I love it. Good logic. Good logic. The Lions are the favorite at plus 130. I also went with the Packers at plus 210. That is, I still was torn on this even going in right to hit record, but I'm going with the Packers. I think these two are going to be two of the best teams in the NFC though. Just overall, just happen to be in the same division. So picky of those teams. I think it's going to be, I cannot wait for the NFC North. That was more than one sentence. So we are going next to the NFC South. Charles, start with you.

NFC South, who you got here? Begrudgingly pick the Falcons. Oh, wow. Kind of the same thing. Best quarterback, but I really don't feel good about it. I don't think the defense is going to be good. I think Tampa Bay has a more complete team, but Falcons might have a higher ceiling. I like that. Matt?

What about you for the NFC South? I do agree that the Falcons have the higher ceiling, but like we talked about on the NFC wins show, Nate, I'm back to being Bucks-pilled, I guess. So I will stay consistent and I'll go Bucks in this spot. I am also Bucks-pilled. Just another summer team. I keep hitting at Bucks and Seahawks, man. As I just stared at it and stared at it and thought about it and rethought about it and re-rethought about it.

Bucs at plus, they're at 3-1 right now. The Falcons are the favorite at minus 140. I think it's these two. The Saints are just, you know, the Panthers are just, so yeah. I'm going with the Bucs. Just everything you said there, Matt. Just more of a complete team than maybe I even realized. Putting your eggs in the Baker Mayfield bag.

Gotta love it. Nothing feels good here. Gotta love it. You buy high on Baker, right? Always. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Pick him at number one. When he doesn't have anything to prove, when he's paid on a contract. Buy high. That's what you're supposed to do on Baker. Yeah, exactly. Find some chip to put on his shoulder. All right, now we're moving on to the West Coast. NFC West. Charles, start with you. Again, NFC West. Who are you going with the division winner? 49ers. Until proven otherwise. Trent's back. Ayuk's back. 49ers back. 49ers back.

That's all I got. Matt.

Same. I mean, what a waste of the last month has been like, are you freaking out about this? Are you freaking about that? And then, hey, everything's ready to go. And I'm ready to pick them to win the division again. Same. Our number one offense. Yeah. Still feel that way. I'm with the 49ers. My is 200. I really, the NFC West is going to be a lot of fun, a lot of frisky teams in there, but 49ers are still the class. The third team to me as the favorite in the NFC with those two NFC North teams. But

But yeah, still have some questions about that defense though. We'll see. It might be the Achilles heel for them. All right. MC East. Matt, we'll go with you. MC East pick. I'm going Eagles. I've been consistent with this since our top 10 offenses pod that I think this team's just a little bit too big to fail. I think the defense will be bigger than it was last year. I

like very low bar to clear, but I think it will be better. It was better than Matt Patricia. Um, how about the fact that Bill Belichick has a show with underdog, a shout out to them for getting Bill Belichick and then just five seconds into the sneak peek of the first episode. Matt Patricia's just there. Yeah.

I mean, hey, talk about getting your boy a job, man, just to get in the game. That was a shock reveal, man. That was pretty shocking. But anyways, yeah, I didn't think I mentioned Bill Belichick here. Ed McMahon role. Yeah. Got to get your boy a gig. That's just the way it goes. But yeah, no, I think that...

Patricia out the door, Vic Fangio in that's good for the defense, but really the offense is just too talented to fail. I'm, I'm with a lot of people that they're coalescing of ideas is going to be interesting to see with Jalen hurts. That's one of my biggest, like week one storylines I'm watching, but overall think these players are just too talented to totally fall apart here. Yeah, I know. That's an argument. I keep fighting with myself. So we'll see Charles. How about you with the FC East? Well,

You know, I don't know if you guys saw this weekend, but Mike Zimmer was back in the news talking about basically like his exit from the Vikings and someone asked him to the effect, like, did you speak to Mike?

The vikings players after you got fired. He basically said hell no, they gotta be fired and that One quote made me fully zimmer pilled all over again So i'm rolling with the dallas cowboys to win the nfc east the defense is gonna be better dac's still here They haven't really resolved much outside of cd's contract, but that seemed to be okay. We're just gonna roll through Dak's gonna you know, absolutely run jerry's pockets for like the third time after the season's over uh, but

we're all good here. I think I'm going to go roll with the Cowboys. It's funny because I was off of them so hard to start the offseason. And then like, I just kept staring at the roster. I was like, this is not a bad group of players. And if Mike Zimmer is still a good coach, they're probably going to win the division again, I think.

He said, I don't want to be thought of as a bad coach. And I was like, okay, yeah, I'm back in. I'm fully with this. You heard the Michael Parsons argument. I am also with the Cowboys. They're at plus 170. Eagles are minus 150. It's between these two. I don't want to spoil anything. But I do think that the Cowboys win this division. Everything Charles just said just kind of bought back more into it

just seeing those rookie offense alignment not be bad and actually just be at least startable. They're not going to be perfect. I know that, but that made me feel a lot better because there's more answers.

Just don't look at the running backs. That's all I ask. That's it. That's all I know. I just closed my eyes. I'm like, defense, Dak, C.D. Lamb. Defense, Dak, C.D. Lamb. Zach Martin, Tyler Smith. Okay, I like that. I like that. Jake Ferguson? All right. But yeah, I don't see East. But I don't want to spoil anything. I'm going to Eagle stuff. I do think they will make the playoffs. But I just...

They're, like I said, too good, but it's just still feel empty in some spots there. I'm sure we'll talk plenty about the Eagles as the season starts. All right, over to the AFC. AFC North. Matt, start us off with the AFC North pick.

Yeah. Again, to bring it back to our top 10 offenses pod, I still had the Ravens in there and I'll have them winning this division as well. I really do think that while yes, there's turnover on the offensive line and yeah, there's some questions about, you know, can Rashad Bateman be like a starter for this team and stay healthy and how deep are the pass catches really beyond Zay Flowers and the tight ends? Year two, Todd Monken, like there's a lot of stuff I think that

they can, a lot of things that went quote wrong. I mean, the quarterback still won the MVP with this offense last year. Like I think overusing Zay flowers is a design touches player, you know, not getting a Bateman involved as a first read player. I think a lot of that is like, that's year one offensive coordinator, like trying to figure his players out, stuff like that. Those things getting more maximized going forward, adding Derek Henry to the mix. I think the defense will take a step back, but I think the offense can be good enough that they still win the division. Charles. Yeah.

This is a fun one to handicap. I want the Ravens, too. Yeah. As we all have the same pick, I also want the Ravens, but go on, Charles. I wanted to be like, you know, pick the Bengals or the Browns, but I just couldn't do it. I think the defense coming back basically fully intact is a big deal, I think, for a first-year defensive coordinator. And at least...

Like there's going to be some brain drain, especially with like losing guys like Mike McDonald, Anthony Weaver in the offseason. But Zach Gore has been here. He's been around this organization like his whole life. So if there's anyone who had like a realistic shot to be poached from like another team to run their defense, because it's not like he's like some unqualified guy. I do think that this is probably the best case scenario for like an in-house defensive coordinator position.

They only block one, you know, like they can block all the guys, but they kind of have to prioritize like, well, we can't block everybody. Like so anyone that does know NFL rules, it coordinator, a quality control coach is the same as a coordinator to the NFL size. You are an assistant or a head coach. That's the two designations. So they say a, if you're a D line coach, that can maybe be a defense coordinator. They can block that a team can. So, but anyways, the fact that they picked him as all those other guys left is signify some things. Yeah. Yeah.

Right. So, look, it might be the best secondary in football. You still got Roquan Smith, Matabuke up front. If they can just get some juice from guys like Trent Simpson or Ole takes another step or David Ojaba, who's been on the bench for a few years with injuries. Any of those guys can take a step. The defense should be raucous again. And you got Lamar and Derrick Henry on the other side. So I'm going to take them to win the division.

Yeah. I also went with the Ravens. I just came around on it. I still have some offensive line questions, but I trust the run game. I trust Lamar. Uh, they will help mitigate that offensive line stuff. I do have still receiver questions, how they use Bateman, just like Matt was saying, but the thing was last year, the receivers were inconsistent because of injuries. I mean, fricking Nelson Aguilar was the best receiver for a little bit because he had to, everybody else got banged up, you know, Zay Flowers got in there too, but then Mark Andrews was hurt most of the year. So it's just that they had woes there last year and it's still worked out. Uh,

With Lamar winning MVP. So I think that it's just hard for me to go away from that when I kind of trusted the most. The Bengals for me, it's like I have to see it for a month before I kind of like want to say anything about them. So I also went with the Ravens. They're the favorites at plus one at 35. The Bengals were 165. Browns are five to one. Steelers at seven to one. Moving on, going to the South AFC South. Matt starts off. What do you have for the AFC South?

I can't have thought. I have an idea. I can't have CJ Stroud winning the damn MVP and them not winning their division. So like I said, I think that offense is set up to go and got a lot of faith in the defense taking some steps forward as well. Yeah, that's a pretty easy argument to make there. It's a fun division too. More fun than people think. Charles, AFC South. Texans. Bye.

We've talked about the spine of defense being weak, but hey, you got CJ Stroud, two of the best head rushers in the league, and Derek Stingley. That should be enough to get you past the other teams at AFC South.

Yeah, I wanted to be fancy and go with a different team here. I went with Texans. My Colts argument is for wild cards, so that's how I snuck down one of their. But I went Texans. Minus 105 favorites. Trust the quarterback. The line has to be healthier. Trust the pass rush. That's a good makeup for a good team, and they have all the auxiliary stuff building up. Even if I have questions with the defense, I do think this is a good team with a really, really good quarterback. So they are my favorites or my pick for AFC South. Now moving on to the AFC West. Charles.

We'll go around. We'll do snake draft here. Who's your pick for the AFC West? Chiefs. Shock Chiefs. Yeah. Matt, anything to add? Here's why I really think the Broncos. No, yeah. I'm with the Chiefs as well. I am also with the Chiefs until something changes there. Until number 15 is not there. I am also the Chiefs. Minus 300. You can get worse odds other places. AFC East, though.

It's a little fun. Charles, let's go back to you. I'm not going to let you get away easy here. Who's your AFC East pick? This one was tough because I really do feel like three teams have a credible claim to actually saying, yeah, we can go out and win the division this year. But I went with the Bills just because I still believe in the floor that Josh Allen gives you as an offense. I know you're going through a transition at wide receiver. You're going through a big transition on defense as well.

And that very well may end up biting them this season and it ends up looking more like a tradition year than a year where they're really competing. But I keep coming back to like, man, we got Josh Allen and we're going to be able to run the ball. That should be enough to win like 10 games, which is pretty crazy. And also, I just, I really hope that this kind of comes to fruition because the poll that came back with Josh Allen as most overrated quarterback in the league, like, dude, what are we even talking about here? Like,

That's crazy. What are we talking about here? That guy plays in Cincinnati. Okay. Not Buffalo. Two parole shots on one pod. Incredible. Yeah. Anything to add there, Matt? You want to complete the trifecta there? No, no, no, no. I,

I know that it's an easy argument. I'll just, I'll jump in before I kick the mat. I also went with the bills here because it's the thing I trust the most. I trust him the most of this in this division. I trust the defensive coaches the most. I make Dermot kind of take a more reign of plays. I trust that even with the Matt Buono injury, I just, they always find the answers, even if it's always not pretty, but they have a run game. They have Josh Allen and they have good defensive coaching. That's yeah. Again, a good formula that I trust the most, but Matt,

AFC East, who did you pick? Yeah, very competitive division. No question about it. But I'm with you guys where I'm going bills. I think Josh Allen is one of the best players in the league. And it's like you said, Nate's the thing I trust the most. And I also think that he can make that transition of going to more of a balanced offense. The run game was really good last year. And I think he can make it work with these pass catchers. Like, I don't think they have a bad receiver room.

Right. They're getting so much zone, and that's why Kincaid got all those upticks and catches, those little five, six-yard stick routes and out routes. That's why Coleman, you really like him as a power slot, which I've been like, yeah, I really like that idea too. But they can work both of those guys inside. They need zone beaters. They need guys because that's what they're facing. You don't want to run man coverage against Josh Allen. Even if you do need guys that can beat man coverage, don't get me wrong. That's where Kincaid comes in. But you need guys that can –

be steady targets can be big targets at that short intermediate range. So this offensive structure, it's going to be, it's going to be interesting kind of merging nickel and dime pass game with a run game, a strong run game. But that's why you have Alan to bring in. All right, chaos time. Like that's, that's your explosive place. So I'm excited to see it. I think it's going to be more cohesive than people realized. All right, before we go to a break, who are you guys wildcard teams? Uh,

We'll start with you, Matt. Want to go AFC, NFC? I was really hoping you were not going to ask me first. Okay, I'll go Charles. No, no, no. It's fine. It's fine. I was called on. I'll answer. AFC was the hard. Actually, both of these were really difficult. I went with the Jets, the Bengals, and the Colts in the AFC. So Dolphins was the hardest cut, but just went with...

I'm a little more nervous about the fragility of that team. What a stupid thing to say when I pick the Jets and their quarterback is coming off an Achilles injury. Dolphins fans can feel free to eat me alive for that one. For NFC, I went Packers. I'm with you that I think that the Packers and the Lions are going to be right there neck and neck. Ultimately, just

when the line's just a little more complete of a team. The Bears I also have making, and then the Cowboys. I'm like you where you said, you know, you're seedy, defense, like Dak, and that was enough for me to get them to wildcard. Not win the division, but get them as my final wildcard team. It's the hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil. It's like, all right, I don't listen to Jerry Jones. I don't look at Ezekiel or Oli yet.

And I don't speak about the contract stuff or where Jack ranks. And I feel good about the Cowboys. All right. I like those. I'm writing it down. So, Charles, wildcard picks? The AFC is, like, impossible because you just feel good. And this is why I've said it off on a bunch. We need to reorganize the NFL. It's just way too tough. Realignment? Yes. We need some realignment because all these quarterbacks in the AFC, it doesn't make any sense. Because we have the four division winners, right? Ravens, Texans, Chiefs, Bills.

And then there's like, there's still like a bunch of quarterbacks, a bunch of teams that should, and in like in a normal distribution year, I feel like, even though we might not have a normal for a long time because all these guys are so young. It just, it's just hard to customize teams. But I whittled it down to the Dolphins, the Bengals, and the Colts.

The Dolphins, I know they have their faults every year, and I don't believe them to actually go on a run. But if you score that many points, you're probably going to make the playoffs, more likely than not. And I don't really see a reason to believe that the offense is... Maybe you don't score 70 points in a game again, but you should still be one of the top three units this year. The Bengals, Joe Burrows, if he's healthy, they're going to score points again, too. And then with the Colts...

I'm just a big believer in what Anthony Richardson's doing and what they've built around him in Indianapolis. The offensive line should be quality. Get some skilled players. The defense does worry me a lot, but I think once you get into the wild cards here, you're not looking at any perfect teams. So...

I would just run with the upside there and go with Anthony Richardson. The Jets were a tough cut for me, though. I will say that. It's a tough cut because the roster is still pretty good, even with Hassan Oretic still has not showed up to work yet. Has no plans to. I mean, it's I've been checked since that last game, but it's got to be once you factor in like the game checks plus $50,000 per day. Like you're probably looking at close to like five and a half million dollars.

And now he's going to be getting charged because in preseason, I looked all this up by now. In preseason, it's like one 18th of a game check. But once the regular season starts, it's full game checks. So now we're talking millions of dollars like a month that he's losing, which is Hassan. Go to work, dude. Let's put it in perspective. Caleb Williams signing bonus this year was 6.3 mil.

That's the number one pick. That's how much of a sign bonus he gets this year, how much it's prorated this year. Then people ask me, why do you care so much about this story? He could just make it back. No, he can't. The rules are very explicit this year that he cannot make this money back. And also, I learned that in two years in 2026, the fines go from $50,000 to $60,000 a day, which is wow. Cap goes up. Everything's going up, baby. Everything's going up. Yep. Everything. They're getting that money back.

Call me. I'll be your union rep. We just won't sign anything ever. Stand tall. Stand strong. What are you guys giving up all this stuff and not getting anything in return?

I've been reading more about baseball front office stuff this offseason and reading about that. Major League Baseball Players Union is just so powerful. The Players Association, so powerful. The strongest union in any of the sports. All that tracking, bat speed, pitch velocity, RPMs, that can be used against you. Arbitration and all those types of things. And all this GPS data in football, I'm kind of wondering, NFLPA, NFLPA.

step up here? Like, are you guys going to say a word here? Major League Baseball went, nope. NFL's like, yeah, let's everybody get it. So, yeah, just don't want to spoil anything there, but yeah, just curious. Charles, your NFC? NFC?

Okay, NFC Wild Cards. Since I went with Kevin O'Connell for Coach of the Year, I put the Vikings here for one of my slots. And I'm also going to put the Lions here for three NFC North teams to make the playoffs. We did have, last year, we did have three AFC North teams pick the playoffs with the Ravens.

the Steelers, and the Browns. So this is not like uncharted territory already, even for the expanded playoffs in the 17-game season. So I'm going to go with the Lions and Vikings, filling two of those spots. For the last one, this one was tough because I don't feel particularly strong about leaving the Eagles off, but I think I'm going to go with the Buccaneers here.

as two NFC South teams. Two NFC South? Only because you get to beat up... I wanted to put the Falcons, but... Beat up on each other? You get to beat up on the Panthers and the Saints.

Maybe split one with the Falcons and the Bucs. And then the rest of the NFC, dude, this conference sucks. It's still not a great conference in terms of overall talent, which is why the AFC, when you're cutting down AFC teams for playoffs to seven, it's painstaking because it feels like you can make a legit case for 12 teams to make the playoffs. But that's not the case with the NFC. I think the Bucs can play well in their non-division schedule, and I'm going to take that seventh seed. The Bucs do have...

The commanders, the Broncos, the Giants, the Chargers, the Raiders, all on their schedule on top of their division. Plus the NFC South. Right. You know, the wins are there. Wow. That was unexpected spice. Like I was just sitting here ready for some salt and pepper. And then, yeah, you just threw a little Tampa Bay spice in there. What kills me is like when we see these lists like before the season where it's like,

Oh, the Falcons and the Buccaneers and the Panthers all have the easiest schedule in the NFL. I wonder why that is. Same teams, huh? Same teams, wow. It is worth noting, though, that the NFC East gets to beat up on the Giants and the Commanders and the Eagles also play. They also play the Panthers and they play the NFC South. The Philly fans don't deserve that, so I'm going to pick the Buccaneers instead.

He went, we'll take the big glitter, throw in there. My wildcard teams, I believe I have the exact same AFC teams as Charles. I had the Colts, the Dolphins, and the Bengals. The Jets were my first out. That one was so hard. I mean, shoot, you can look at AFC North teams and make an argument. There's just, yeah, there's plenty of teams to shoot.

Jaguars, too, if you do believe in any of the offense and who they still haven't announced who's calling plays, by the way. But the defense, you know, I think that defense could be really good. You got a good quarterback. Don't have an offensive line or run game, though. So that's a little dicey. NFC Seahawks making the playoffs in that tough division. Lions, I did say, you know, one of the better teams in the NFC. They'll just get stuck with being that five seed.

And then I went with the Eagles. Again, I just think the team's too good. Even if I do think, again, playoffs might be a little different story. I think they're going to win, beat up some of the bad teams like Matt just mentioned. Those are the wildcard teams. That's all the playoff teams. We're going to take a quick break, and then we'll have our final four teams, the conference finalists and the Super Bowl winner. See you guys in a sec.

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Learn more at klaviyo.com slash BFCM. All right, Final Four teams, conference finalists. Matt, who do you have?

I have the Lions of 49ers back in the NFC championship game. And then I have the Chiefs and the Texans in the NFC championship game. I think the Chiefs now can be in their board era where they don't need the number one seed now. I kind of think they found some pleasure in going on the road last year. And I think they might want to do that again. Make things a little more difficult this year. Why not? I like that. The board era. Yeah, the Golden State Warriors.

Kind of bored. They're the only ones that can crank it up in NFL playoffs. And we're going to start trying again. We really need that loss against the Raiders in week 17 to really amp us up. It's like, oh, no one believes that must be nice. God, most guys are just trying, like killing for a win, just any type of win. And they're just like, yeah, we'll crank it up right now. I like that. Charles, final four teams.

Yeah, I went with the Chiefs and the Ravens. Honestly, I think it's going to be the same exact. Chiefs at Ravens, Chiefs go on to the Super Bowl, which would be excruciating. But like you said, they've reached the we're not trying mode. I don't think any play encapsulates that more. Really two plays. The first, it's the Travis Kelsey catch on Kyle Hamilton in the first quarter of the AC title game. And then it's the...

marching down the field in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl. Here comes Travis Kelsey. He hits the afterburner. It's like he's back in Cincinnati in 2012. Yeah. You know, sprinting down the field full speed. Any Travis Kelsey playoff catch could fit into this. Right. Where was this already in the season, dude? I don't know. Remember that Chargers one a couple years ago? Not the playoffs, but the night game late in the season? Oh, my God. Yeah. No, this is good. Yeah, they can crank it up.

Yeah, for me, I'm going to go 49ers Packers. 49ers again. So I'm getting a repeat of the Super Bowl from last year. Just the most chalkboard you can imagine, but it feels right in my brain. You guys were talking earlier, just the Matt Patricia stuff. We were talking to Eagles, and it popped in my head, like him with the Belichick show, but he's on his ATV.

Remember when he was hurt and he was always riding his ATV around a practice. I was like, that just, someone's got photos. I wish I was better at Photoshop, but I, my final four teams kind of just, yeah, I wish I had a little bit, a little variance here, but I kind of, I'm repeating what you guys said here. Chiefs Texans. I tried to find some argument for another AFC team, but they just, again, pass rush, good quarterback, uh,

That does a lot for me like that. And I just think they have some auxiliary stuff that's going to let them get there. I think they need one more year to boost up that defense and get over the top. Then on the NFC Packers Lions, I think it's a NFC North battle in the NFC championship game. That 49ers defense maybe just gets stuck by one of these teams in the divisional round. That's the argument I'm going to make. I have Packers and Chiefs as my Super Bowl finalists.

And a repeat of the first two AFL NFL championship games. And I'll just go with my, just because I don't want to ruin a segue here, transition here. I have the Packers as the Super Bowl champions, just because they can't just do the Chiefs for the three-peat as much as that's the easiest argument to make. Going with the Packers just to feel a little bit spicier. And then your guys' Super Bowl picks, of course. Matt, did you say...

Yeah. I said Lions over 49ers, Chiefs over Texans. And my God, am I praying for the mental health of Kyle Shanahan and everybody involved in that 49ers organization in this situation? And listen, this is a new podcast.

We're going to need one dumbass on the show to be the guy that picks Jared Goff to beat Pat Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Oh, my God. I guess I'll be that dumbass here. So Lions win the Super Bowl. Jared Goff over Patrick Mahomes. What a disgusting. You know, I only say this because I kind of fell ass backwards into making this prediction on the fantasy show, on our bold prediction show. And it's like, well, now I have to be consistent. So, you know, journalist integrity.

same journalistic integrity on this podcast the show that we've openly admitted we've like takes have been swayed like the last two weeks doesn't matter about the previous six months hey that like that one preseason throw look pretty good now i mean we're all we all had a separate algorithm for our win totals i know we really worked hard on really hard pick by pick yeah i've been working the phones trying to make my picks you know

Charles, did you do a Chiefs-Mahomes double again? Yeah, of course. Yeah, of course. Yeah. Dude, it's good. It's the best process of this entire show. They won on hard mode, and now they're playing on medium, you know? So...

I know. But they're also, they're saying the right things too. It's kind of like they're fine. All these guys have to find an edge. It's hard, you know, all of these things and they're just finding stuff to get ticked off about. So it's like, yeah, it's a little scary. At least I went with Jordan Love as my winner. I can see it.

There's one little, there's a, there's a timeline where I actually believe that one, but closing it out today, Charles and I will be back on Thursday to preview the week. Once slate, our first weekly preview will be doing that every single Thursday this year. So check that out. I'm Nate Tyson. Finally find me at Nate underscore Tice. That is Matt Harmon. Where can they find you, Matt on social media at Matt Harmon underscore B Y B. I can't believe week one is finally here. Thank goodness.

I always love it. All right. And Charles, where can I find you? You can find me on Twitter at four verts. And yeah, I'm going to be trying to go ghost until that game starts. Let me try. Oh my God. I wish that must be nice. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, on Twitter, on social media, on social media, not fair. Like actual work. I had an article idea that sounded great three months ago. And now that's the week of the season. I'm like, why did I volunteer for this? So check that out later this week on Yahoo.

Spoilers. I've been watching some Patrick Mahomes, Texas tech tape. Yeah, it should be fun. But subscribe to us. Football 301. Please do. It'll slow down. It's going down to the trickle. Let's get that thing back to a roar before the season starts. Follow us. Rate us. Watch us on YouTube at the Yahoo Sports YouTube channel. Follow Yahoo Sports on Snapchat if you're into that.

Also, send in your mailbag questions. Football301mailbag at YahooSports.com. Emails are great, but let's hear those voice notes as the losses start trickling in as well. Thanks to Brad Stone and Adi. Thank you, everybody, for listening. Football is here. Week 1 is here. See you guys soon.