Trump's First Campaign Manager Paul Manafort Breaks Down the Current State of the Presidential Race
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So who's get even in politics with ford campaign seventy six .

seven started.

who's going to win .

this race .

culture that you some pretty sorted about .

that I think kids his to lose at this point type.

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We are honest brokers here to tell you what we think you need to know. And do IT honestly check out all of our content and talker croson doc count. Here's the episode. Why do you say that?

Well, you look at the composition of the undecided voter. And in some background states, the undecided voter of overwhelmed thinks the country has been going in the wrong direction. They feel like they have not benefited in the last four years. They remember, because trump was president just four years ago, what I was like when he was president preak of IT. And so they can compare his record verses by hair record.

And and you look at the undecided, a isu 觉得 it's a it's the first issue of ender of what issues the economy， the inflation number two is the border and illegal immigration and crime uh and third issue is safety in the world. And somewhere there's abortion, somewhere there is is is fear for democracy. But when you look at how the voters feel on the issue of democracy is split fifty, fifty, and we have the country is fearful because of what biden has been doing.

And the other half is fearful because of what biden says truck will do, except trump has been president. So you can say, truly do something beyond what he did as president before. So the issue doesn't cut with the remaining and decides what cuts is, the economy, the border, the wars in in ukraine and in the gulf. And there he has a tent twelve point league. When those major issues overheads among the undecided.

So what kind of that simple? I mean, so their issues, Harris is issues are trumps personality abortion in january six. Trumps issues are the economy, the border crime and the threat of nuclear war. IT seems like he's got A A stronger hand and he does yeah I mean.

if he had run a different campaign, IT might have been more difficult for job, but he basically gave trump his issues to be the deciding issues of the campaign. She's realized that I think you've see now when he talks about SHE is the closing narrow of her campaign is chop is on hinge, he's unstable uh, and and she's using for a republicans is advocates to make the point. She's doing that because the undecided voters left out there isn't vote that isn't client torture for the reason I just said.

And so she's got a peel off soft vote from trump or people who would not be for, would not be for her but don't like true so they are not kind of vote and so she's trying to get that sort of, I guess, the the right of republican than the the anti trumper, the suburban women, uh, republican women uh and so she's her job is to get for those type of people to come out to vote for her. But the people are undecided in an argon vote in the election are the ones that have the profile that i've described. And if so, its longest st job stays on message.

You know, they're gonna break in at my judgment in favour. It's, you know, because I ve been around a long time, but in one thousand nine hundred eighty was involved in one thousand nine hundred eighty reagan campaign at a senior level. And in that campaign was there a lot of parrots to this race.

You had a failed in democrat present, enduring Carter. The issues were economic and the issues were the the iran host situation um and um uh and but reagan was an unknown commodity. He had been governor california.

But he did. The current campaign against him was he was a cowboy. He was reckless. He would there be world or three and uh h but the issue agenda was an economic issue agenda and uh and like with throp this year so regan had to prove himself as being capable.

Value of president trump doesn't have to do that because he's already been president so that first little that regan had uh h trump doesn't have uh, although he is trying to make that into a negative hurdle uh but once regan was able to demonstrate he was he could be president, which he did in the the only debate that he had with garter. The undecided vote just all moved over to trump in the last ten days of the campaign. Rain, I mean region the last ten days of the campaign because they saw regan as a strong leader and they they were voting against carly's economic recker. Um you've got that same kind of dynamic in this race right now.

So forty five years later, I think very few people remember that the Carter reagan race in the fall of one hundred and eighty was considered too close to call war, maybe Carters to lose. correct? That is correct.

right? That is correct. And IT was a IT was that slight Victory?

IT certainly was, I mean change american politics for the next thirty years at least. right. So um you're in IT was IT obvious to you that regan was going to win.

We knew the last week of the campaign was going to wait. Data was all a very, very clear and we didn't know the lands that would be as big as I was, but we knew was gonna a big win. We we actually started spending time covertly at some of the senate races because we are looking and we we want a number senators that were words posed one hundred and eighty because the tide was that strong.

Uh, but the but what had happened in the eighties, all the polling companies national poll shut down the last week of the campaign because he showed cara waiting and the author is going to win. And so there was no point in the last week of the campaign except for us. We were doing our our targeted states from the from the gap and the and so we saw the break we saw was happening and and so we weren't surprised on which the every um legacy media account .

I read of the state of the race today tells me that is just too close to call is that you don't seem to think that is too close to call.

Why are they saying that? Well, I think it's no, I think it's a close election. I think that the undecided when they break are gonna break three two to the one for for true.

Uh, I he's ahead now in all seven battle ground states and in fact, you know, I draw your tension to start watching Virginia, minnesota and maybe even new mexico where the races have gotten closed. Close me in a couple points. Uh, and the movement is against terrorist in those states.

Now do I think they'll close for Harris? Probably, but we could see happening in those states. What we do see happening in the several ground states and the the differences of the background states were already ahead in every one of them. And so any breaking disproportionate to to trump will enhance the lead as opposed to Virginia urban to odwar.

We need to take the lead from the breaking but it's possible I mean, in the the clues you say yeah is is when you look at what's happened this past weekend in some of the key democrats senate combat races in the blue wall states, a in kinsman in the michigan and pencil you you have in complete democrat centers running who are in dead heat races with republican chAllengers and by public point and you look, they've all put up ads this weekend, all three Graces, where the democratic senators are endorsing trump policies by name in their political advertising. The world down, try using the world out. They support the trump border plan.

They support the trump Frankie plan. They support the trump tariff plan, depending on the states. A, uh.

they would be of a democrats supporting the trump border planet. That's like a violation, the catheter. M, that's a big deal to say something like that.

And the truck terf plan in in mi gan is not something that Harris is supporting at all. And yet slaking is. And they are interconversion sing when you see that kind of evidence you know they're seeing and they're private polling when we're seeing in in our private polling, which is that the undecided that are left in the race um probably theirs at our since the they're tracking um are on the same issue of they wouldn't be the meaning and economic transition and tariff s and micron transposition and fracking pencil um and uh if so, you see IT empirically in there.

You see in our data we feel like watching the shift in the in the narrative that hair was taken in the past week since the fox interview where SHE now is totally on this personality cold attack and that he's too dangerous to be president. Giving up all the issue she's giving up the issue agenda uh in in making her race all about why would you do there? Because I think he believes he sees what we see, which is that the the main issues SHE has not sold her case. And trump, as they ve view trump is Better on dealing with inflation by twelve inch in in some of the public posts they say trump on the board by over twelve points over fifteen points over um yeah in trusting him to deal with overseas issues by ten points. He says that so you it's too late in the campaign now to change that that direction so she's got to throw the hail mary pears, which was the other core of part of her strategy which is job is unhinge and unstable and she's focusing on the soft vote in republican vote or the republic of that's not voting which is suburban women uh and targeting them the message and using list jane and and others .

so if if you're pulling out the chinese as the democratic presidential canada in the last moments, I mean, first, you know you deserve to lose more than anything for doing that. But but if someone told you five years ago that the most left wing american senator would become the democratic s presidential canada and drop the chinese out, what I mean.

you can make that. So yeah, no, that is the thing is both parties, i've got their base. I mean, we truly getting into all the public is not between ninety and ninety three percent of the republic lan vote.

She's getting between ninety and ninety three, two percent of the democrat. So this is not a base election anymore. The base, you know.

But what she's trying to do is mix up the base a little bit by try some of these anti trump republicans who are not voting for the most part or I had and trying peal those votes over her because she's not confident he can win over the undecided voter in west pension venia um um because of where the drop position over her is on the economy and fracking uh this is this is where SHE failed in her debate with throw. And her job at that debate was the introducers off to the country. But to also show that he had a plane, SHE didn't do that.

And by going dark without with the media for so long, SHE never defined herself. Uh and in what the top campaign is done using her and her public appearance isn't recorded. The statements from twenty and nineteen as well as ood well, vice present, we've defied her using her and her positions and that worked. And and as a result, you have A A lot of the room he's Carry the independent phone is is we could Carry the his spending phone .

like the majority.

like majority in a couple of the battle ground states, yes, like a majority he's getting twenty five percent .

of so that's the history changing, a change in politics .

that happened. It's for a lot of reasons, but all of them make sense. It's independence in diva in arizona. Uh it's because of the border, it's because of the crime, is because of the impact of illegals and their communities. Um but it's also cultural values in in voguish uh you know family values uh is a schoolboy issues and transgender and things like that where in the history ic families it's a culturally tight family situation. These issues are Better.

I think of that his majority heping ic now were it's pretty close or yeah close for sure. Um and so the idea was that people with his panic class named love illegal immigration, but that turned out not true at all.

No because their pain they're suffer the most um and won because the of their jobs. Two because the impact and limited community resources three, the crime is in their neighbors ods and um uh and and you've had hair out there three and half years saying there is no problem, there is no border problem there not recognition that not even visiting IT be an empathetic uh and that has resonated in the espana community uh and and we're seeing that in the espana places like pensylvania as well.

And so that that framework of the electorate is totally tilt in away is some of these suspending vote in a lot of the black vote. That's the favorite. Trim is IT has too is a tool for for us because it's one vote out of the democratic candidate, one vote for the republican. It's it's not just A A swing voter that you know for grabbing that she's losing a voter every time we gain a black vote.

Uh you know the SHE Normally would have pen as democrat omino and again the the reason these people the the profile of the trump black voter this time are black men under twenty five, a men on four thirty five and it's for reason they've suffered economically theyve given up and the ah the promises democratic party and and trump in some ways as a clinic figure to them uh and and but he they he definitely gets them they and they see that he gets them um so it's that that vote is not vote. It's going to slip away in the next two weeks as we get close, uh, close to the election. That's why she's targeting this affected women republicans who don't like trump. The personality .

it's just kind aware that should be running on trump's personality because it's the single most in fact, in all american politics with Donald trump's personality is like because we've talked about IT every single day for ten years. So is a really room for movement on that questions or anyone thinking, oh wow, trump is kind of vote I .

had no idea.

I think I won't vote .

for him actually and that's why the the undecided voters, if you look at any focus groups that are out there, you'll see they are saying, yeah, I don't like his personality, but I was Better for the under his IT would he was present and I don't know what he stands for and I don't want to risk for more years uh, and these are people who traditionally vote democrat because .

they told this member they would always or remember, I mean, it's all they talked about for the Better part of a decade. Trump is a racist. Trump is a races, not me.

Repeat, trump is a racist and no is like on track to win. The majority of his panic voted a huge chunk black men. I guess that didn't work. We can say.

no, I didn't. I mean, it's that we could have worked if he was part of a strategy, but not the word because it's this strategy, uh, that's all that she's offering. People who have had a very lousy .

three years, did they even say that anymore?

Trump's race member, that was the only thing they said they will get that raw again because that's the stage that they're at in the campaign. So I think it's gonna a very ugly close by the hair campaign that that they will be tossing around hit lern and racism and things like that as if they were that is that the kind of powerful words that they are?

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reference, man.

Yeah, they're much less powerful than they used to be, though I remember the first time someone said something like that called him hit lura said he was a White supreme es to raced him, being really shocked by IT. Now it's like .

a shut up people are more immune again, my personal inie she's got to vote that's going to be moved by that right? Uh that's not going to be the last five percent and the ah and so trump is running a closing campaign that's dealing with what the other silence want to hear um SHE is running a closing campaign that's based on fear and trying to right trying to make the underside of fear trump and therefore just reside to say, okay, i'm the risk for more years of this because I fear truck right I don't think that's a winning close and uh and I don't see in the the data and and I don't see IT in my experience of politics of being the kind of thing in a close races you will um that will be allow people to vote against their economic interest uh because that's what the these undecided people are says I ve had a miserable four years I believe truck can do a Better job but for me but i'm going to a vote against him I don't see that happening .

do you feel confidant enough to bet on IT if .

I were Better? Man, yes, do. Do you believe in the .

predictions markets of betting markets?

Well, I mean, if I pay attention to them and and if you look at the betting markets today, there at the highest point in the in the all the years, trump is Better politics saying that sums going to win. It's like the the average I think today is like fifty eight, fifty nine percent of of the bedding market is same truck now.

And and you can track how that bedding market has gone since SHE came into the race when he had the first announce, when we through the sugar high and the the debate I made, the the the bedding markets followed her and were favoring her. But over the last month, as the campaign, the campaign strategies have impacted the elector at the grassroots level, you started to see a ticking up for trump and now it's dramatically up for truck um going into the closed last two weeks of close. And I don't see any major october surprises we call IT that's going to come up uh that can change that trajectory now um the hurray season is almost over yeah uh, the the war situation, I think, is the war.

They're waited IT out for the next two weeks to see winds. I could be wrong, but me, if israel does something in striking in iran, I I D doesn't hurt trump. I could hurt hairs.

Uh, the economy is not going to get Better in the next two weeks. So there's no event that's going to change the projective. The race like the debated in thousand nine hundred eighty reg versus Carter, allow the undecided to vote their economic interest.

There's nothing that's going to change. I don't believe that will allow the undecided to vote against the economics for um that's been an end again, drop is ahead in all seven states right now by the by the public uh uh submarine. So the the foundation is there and you also have what we call the the unknown trump factor, where historically, trump is one or two points Better than the polls show him to be, and in some cases, dramatically more than water two points.

You look at the national polls today, here is up by about a point a half nally. A national polls of of of voters is very is not a good measure any longer of what's going to happen to IT at election day. Plus you have people voting now. So it's not just voting an election day. The changes that we're all seen happen in transferor.

It's happening context business with people actually get the votes uh and you know one of the you know the hair campaigns had the money at village um but they've also been too big money big money advances but but too much money advances meaning that if we don't need as much money as he has to win we were a deary clinton now overspent, outspent trump but by almost half a billion dollars in twenty sixteen loss um so she's gonna not be much more than if you won't be that much ahead of trump in the end um and but her money advantage and her quote, field advantage know was always make the difference. Well, he doesn't have a field advantage that's one of the miss that the mainstream media dance campaigns that trump has no ground game and hair says this jog at. Well, the last time I heard that was in twenty sixteen, when I was told that the campaign we had put together, terrible grass roots campaign, and the hilly clint, head of most professional field Operation in history.

Well, we know what what happened. There is the same thing, the same, the same thing. Today we have a very good ground. Everyone you look at the early voting that's happening and the millions of votes have been cast by now a between the early voting and an abcd voting. And you were everyone's mostly in that stuff.

And the democrats turned out advantage on early voting is dramatically lot less than it's ever been again over the last eight years. But guess and so we're holding our own or doing Better than our own in the early voting. But then guess who has an advantage on election day? We do because that's where we've always had to all of our vote out because we always worry against the early voting until this cycle.

SHE doesn't have a good organization for the election day and SHE has for early voting, but she's not winning the margin SHE needs so far in the first two weeks of the early voting that happened. So the field organization is another advantage at this point time. We ve got the issue advantage uh and um and we've got more than enough money to do.

We need to do at our campaign. Therefore, looking at all the pieces of election, her race is counting on her getting people to vote against the economic interest because the trouble is a threat to democracy. I don't see .

that happening. I agree with you. Um looking back over the last three months, really sense junes once the debate between trump in biden, what are the things that the trump campaign is done, right? Do you think?

Well, they were ready for her hairs. I mean, we saw going into after the debate, joe, the possibility that a bit might not be a canary. I didn't believe that I thought he would never quit um but but camping a possibility and so they did the research on Harris and then the other potential candidates that could have been the the named so that when biden did drop out, we were ready.

If we had ads ready and and we knew how we wanted define all of the potential porters we might have, we didn't think that they would get rid of biden and give us hairs and we reviewed Harris, the weakest of all the potential in its because you'd have to live on the record of the administration exactly um and but that was so band's gifted from uh because bind was so upset with the democratic good at a against him uh that he told him he was going to endorse his vice president when we had native policy and obama wired an open primary of all the leading candidates so they can control who become out of the democratic convention. SHE didn't they didn't get that by announce on sunday he was quitted announce monday he enters to get couple layers and then he became impossible for anybody to run again. Again.

you think that was an active aggression against his own party? I do really .

so diminish .

though he is you think that joe biden was angry enough at policy and obama that he decided to grow the democratic .

party by gifting them I O and you know how he's always failed to search by the democratic establishment including obama, including the animal specially the obama ah and when he didn't want to quit he he felt and there's a case we made today that he couldn't Better, Better candidate than errors because he felt all along that the democratic base which was against, which was the reason why is truly badly after his debate, would have no choice but to come together after labor day and support him and then he thought he could beat be a trump again.

You look at the, if you want to, analyzed through his his eyes, he's probably right that the base would have come back to him. The media would have had to come back to him uh um against a trump because they were always gonna against trump uh and he would be a much Better candidate in pensylvania. He be a much Better candidate uh in the in the midwest because he's got working class routes you've got in the latest democrat liberal uh, as the democratic nominee when the battle ground states are in the midwest.

Yeah and so you could make the case that he would have been at least as strong as hair. But but the plosser tragedy was never to have hair. Oh, is they? They are superior or a whitmire even to knew some could have had certain appeal in the midwest that a Harris didn't have see.

The obama and policy never thought they were getting common Harris .

when they pushed by them to. And that was job in's gift to them and return for the gift they gave him .

and nothing him.

So but that's why here's but what we didn't analyze, nobody could have, is how all in the media would be to just maker into the second obama try to make into exception can speak like obama he is, but was much more articulate. Obama stood for something that SHE can't stand for. Obama was going to be the first black president.

yeah. Now she's got the first black present. But the the cause yeah, exactly. And the and she's not articulate SHE.

She's afraid of being with the media if they don't proper up SHE can't hold her wrong. And i've learned, having done enough elections, that the american people generally get IT. They they by election day they get IT and IT.

Sometimes they go with no twenty twenty. They call IT to started everything. And then the change of the rules are voting, distorted everything.

And then republicans, not knowing how to deal with early voting and participating, distorted everything. Well, this is a much more Normal election. I mean, the rules are the same, are settled rules.

We fix some of the excesses of twenty twenty in the in the number of the background states so that voter identification is gonna important. Uh, republicans are participated in early voting this time in an aggressive way. And we're seeing IT in the early voting, uh, up to results.

So in a more Normal election, having a california liberal who hasn't been out there running for president um and trying to define herself should not be a Victorious campaign. The reason she's in play is because the media has defined her for her. Is this saint and this this turning the page? Well, again, american people know turning the page from what? From the bind hair administration. How do you turn the page on yourself and give them something different? And they were, especially when SHE hasn't defined what she's gonna do or when he has, it's been contradiction to what he said he stood for before and again and that she's winning her vote and most polls show this because even in the democrat base that supporting her their antitrust uh because a lot of those people who weren't so empty I trump democrats would be voting for a republican candidate right now that name trump because of the economic failures of this administration against theirs um but trump ings out an additional kind of revote that no republican can get uh and he's changing the the the uh composition of the republic lan party into a working man's party, working class party to a middle .

american party. I think it's finally happening IT must be weird for you someone who's been in top levels of republican party for all these years, almost fifty to see all these people you know come out against trump in in some cases, for commonly heroes like the pillars of the party, dici is just one among many.

Yes, IT is. And it's and it's because of the personality that coming out. But it's also because they've they've had their time and they just they're settled in their ways and they think that trump doesn't represent the party that they were part of, uh, twenty years ago.

He does 是 well， he doesn't, but a lot of the principles he does, yes, so but they have a they have sported ated principles to how they have want the party to look, which is the exact ops of what the democrats have done. They don't care what the party looks like. It's principles that drive the democrat party. And its woke left this principles that are not in the interest of the country.

And as a result, you've had the changing of the electorate of the of the composition of the two parties where the democrats are on their leaders party from the coast and the republicans are a main street and that wall street, even though their reputations to let and the in trouble, is making IT into a really working class party. What do you think of that? Well, I think, well, I think if if you want to run a country, you have to have more than the latest as as a focus of where your policies go.

Yeah I mean, that's why I got involved in politics. So as a conservative, I I know back in the in the sixties I was upset with what was emerging. Johnson kind of big government is a social welfare program, uh, the things like that.

And so I was coming from a working class background, and I saw the republican party that is, so the leadership of the republic comparing, but the principles of what gold order was talking about, uh, as a as something that attracted my interest. Well, trump is taking that to a new level. Trump is made IT into the leadership of the party, not just the focus of the principles of the party.

And I think long term that's A A coalition that can govern for a long time uh especially when you take the the negative part of trump out of the equation and keep all the positives yeah in the equation. Uh, I think that the democrats are either going to have to folk to come back towards the other or we are going to be in powerful a long time. I mean, I think it's not inconceivable to think that trump is gonna have a republican congress.

He's gonna have a republican, said IT uh we could have fifty four, fifty five members of the republic can say that um and it's probable IT with him winning, breaking in the way I think things gonna break that will keep the house and if we do that, then something very different from twenty seventeen is going to exist. You're going to have an experience, president trump, who understands why should a lot Better than he did in twenty seventeen, where he took the author offers. And you are gonna have a republican congress controlled congress that people people that are part of the trump make amErica great again.

我见 的 uh， with the speaker of the house who actually is supportive of the economic policies that drop points to act veris what paul ryan was doing A A speaker of those convincing job not to do the things that he should have done in the first year and therefore having immigration reform and and economic reforms that truck wit put on the blackboard to never get to the front product. That second happened twenty twenty five and is so with those changes, I believe the county is gonna stronger economically. I think the world is gone to get Better, get safer.

I think we're going to have borders again. And that is gonna log in. A lot of this new support that is voting for trump because they think he will be Better for them but then they going to see that the party is a whole that trump is put together can also be Better for them after trying um and with somebody like A J D vance, even people like Michael bi or know out they're talking about the the the trump record, the trump policies, it's going to make a big difference.

And I think kismine x will be be attracted to that. I think working class americans will be attracted to that. And with trump having a government of people for him as a postal government of people that were not for him, but then one be part of the government that he created, and then under kind of this president of time and time again, that's going to be be different tissue that the people going to be put in power that will implement the truth agenda and be supportive of the truth agenda.

And that's why to all of these former republican trump administration people who are now supporting Harris, they didn't for what trump in twenty sixteen, they became part of his government after one, but they were not supported him in two thousand sixteen um they did not buy into the trump policies that troops was elected on. And so when they didn't follow his direction, he fired. But the differences, haris people and her staff is vice president, or ninety five percent of people who work for quit on her.

They can get fire. They quit other they couldn't take her because he was such a terrible boss. That's the difference. That's what you can expect on the hairs. Shit can't manage people trump. We had the wrong people in office because he didn't have a team in twenty seventeen because he was an outside according to washing.

But he's got a team now and it's a team that believes in what he wants to do and what he's campaign and and so what he gets elected on, unlike what biden and hair did in twenty twenty and then did this in as is as president vice president drop is gonna flament to policies been after to talking about and he's going to bring people in who are committed to those balls different than twenty seventeen. And I think we have chance to have a very good two years with that. A lot of these changes can decide to take .

room what a disaster if front us win, it'll be for the democratic party.

In the second he won in two thousand and sixteen that well the first thing that was resolved to put know the people who got him there, including you in prison, they succeeded um mike fly and they tried to put him in prison I mean Roger stone, I mean they really went and just tried to in prison the opposition and then they try to in person trump and I think pretty clearly stalled the twenty twenty election. That's my view. Um they limited free speech that .

stuffed enough and IT .

didn't work and that he wins in twenty twenty four after all of that. What is IT like if that happens in the democratic party?

I think the left takes over. Interesting there. I think who's gonna get get in here is the centuries in the democratic party. Uh, really, absolutely, absolutely. I think that the washington part of the party will be dramatically controlled by the Sanders. But I think standards, you know, the unspoken story here is the the guy with the network in the states, in the democratic party is pretty say, of course, yes.

And the what you saw happen with ryan regan in one thousand nine seventy seven, after he lost the nomination to Jerry ford and ford luster, the president seated Jerry Carter ragons network of people spent three years building in the states the regan organization that are elected him president. Because ragging had for seen the future issue wise. Uh, I think the Sanders people are gonna the same thing if there's a tobacco in vt in in twenty twenty four, but they're going to a be misreading the future in my judged at the issues, unlike the rain did. Uh so they as they take control, they're going to push the party further .

and further. Left to the populist left.

Think I think both the populist left a and the economic left. I think they're going to be driven by the economic left, but the populist left is gonna the way they they sell .

their message. So but like the training left, the you .

know .

the weird kind of Richard lady left, those the emphasis the sexual issues on racial division does that I mean, that doesn't seem to have .

worked at that and that's what I call the populist left. I think the economic is where they will frame IT because it's more acceptable to the the disadvantaged uh and you could make that case to the illegal migrants who may be ended up getting entrenched here uh in one way or another um but the left takes to the lesson .

if they lose to the democrats will be we didn't go left enough well I don't know that that's .

the lesson that they to them but that's the opportunity to the left within the party which is the dominant of the party. Yeah interesting.

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There's gotta be some reckoning though. I mean, they they did everything they could stop trump in and they couldn't stop him.

Look, look, is on the horizon. You've got very sander. Still get eliza with war, and still you got amy club. Your style you got could have a new some still uh, they are all they've already they sailed that ship, their ships in that direction.

Now can they change? Of course they can change um but the power based on the grass roots that they have to appeal to to emerge Victorious for twenty two twenty eight is the left and they are much more hard core. The republicans are in punishing um if if there the opposition so I I don't think there's any leadership in washington with closely and gone now uh that that that brings our move towards the center.

I think obama a IT will be where a lot of them go to. But obama, I don't this is his last fight. I I mean he he if he loses this, I mean if he loses, he loses and he doesn't want to spend the rest of his life go refining that war.

He's a former president. He's made billion dollars and she's left. Uh, no, it's up to a new leadership to take the party over.

And so I don't I don't see him. You don't even see Michelle obama out there right now campaign for her. I think SHE was the last two weeks, but SHE isn't been after this.

Why do you think .

there's something there? I mean, I don't know what IT is, but there's something there um but even hasn't been that aggressively out even though you know this was his good tight I mean he wasn't this really is canna but this was this good at a um is but my point is I don't see obama in the future trying to direct democratic party because he will be gone summer that the national politician is is a wise politician h kim jeffrey doesn't have any profile seriousness. The national democrats in washington are the leftist, the standard that the are the warrant, people like that. And so if .

trump gets the majority into, we will the democrats, including their army of lawyers, just kind of give up or just say you you want.

I think the january six is their playbook, right?

I was last time exactly.

So do I think that they can accept the result? As trump says correctly, hilary clinton is still contesting in two thousand and sixteen election. They will never give trump the the benefit of winning an election and no matter how bigging wins IT.

Um but he's going to be present in january of twenty and twenty five. They are going to have to do with that, but it'll make IT IT be a difficult be a transition period. They'll be a lot of protest, I mean, the week after, between people running to the the psychology services and people know running to the streets to burn things. Yeah, it's gona be a best.

But can you think of any legal mechanism they could use to prevent from from being seated as president? january?

No, no, I mean, they try to sit some of those things up when they were trying to play with electors for this time around and and rules about the stay spad having to file the results of the election. But no, this system works. Our system works.

And uh, as far against a could, if you will, a democratic today. And the difference between twenty twenty and twenty twenty four is you will have the media defining whatever the grievances are of the losing democrat party as being fair grievances. And in fact or not, whatever, I don't know which ones y'll come up with, but they'll come up with stories that through.

But that's what the good at republicans, except result for the most, by which is why trumps push back in twenty twenty was was so out of character for the world to understand. Democrats always contest results, and I can't remember a campaign actually that they didn't contest once one where something, whether was gore, where they lost and and so IT will be a contentious transition period. But I think the differences, if truth has the results that I think he is going to have, it'll be close to our over three hundred elector votes that hard to turn over before they define. You really think .

trumps getting get three hundred.

Well, I mean, there are seven background states trumps, if you trump loses all seven, I think he is something like two fifty four if you wins all seventies at three hundred twelve if you win some combination in between um you know so and the only one who is below to seventy is where SHE sweeps to the blue wall. And I don't see you're doing that. I reach we could soop the blue all right now we are living in all three of those states um and I don't see revenue .

with the blue walls.

Bu well, michigan was concerned a pencil and the three many western states.

he has to rely those democratic seats. I've never understood that at all. Those seem like natural trust states, given the resignation .

between the parties. What labor was, labor has got big hold.

And how corrupt is labor when every member of a public sector labor union overwhelmingly is for trump? Like how corrupt they .

there for hairs.

you know, for the actual, you know some of the teamsters one percent I B E W yes, exactly.

You know you right? Well, that's why we're going in those states yeah um you trump has made the economic argument to the the other workers that the bind hair administration was the worst administration for them and she'll be even worse as as president hairs uh and that's why the local members are there I mean yesterday in pittsburgh the uh the steel union h members from western pennsylvania indoors drop.

Now the the senior leadership of the union is for hairs but the ranking file workers, the, the, the, the, the union boys in the regions in the states are for trouble, and they endorsed yesterday. But in western pennsylvania, but SHE has to win all three of those states. She's got a problem with the muslim vote in, in, in michigan.

And it's their major piece of a democratic coalition to Carry that state. They're fragmented, doesn't be a lot of and vote voters in. And trouble is was indoors by the largest muslim pakistan uh organization in missionary last week um so yeah and they are doing that because they know that trump is somebody who could bring peace to them in list.

I mean, he almost did that. He had had a second term. He we wouldn't hand this war in the gulf. And at the same time, the jury support trumps getting close to forty percent of the jewish support because they know that he protected israel, and he, when he says he's going to protect them, he means what he says versus what binding says when he talks to be israeli. But, but and how right now, in a war, you can be both.

You have to be problem now, and process will drop his credibility in the israeli community, his credibility in the muslim community. It's nobody in democratic ty like that and and admission that's a real cross pressure on Harris at the base. So the three states that he has to win to be president, she's trAiling in author, that will have a long term impact. I think I regnant because trump also understands that, 喂， the leadership made, not before the ranking file is, but he makes, if he makes the ranking files lives Better, the leadership has to start to open up and be less, less impressive. And really when you look at the the the public service unions in the private sector, uh unions ah, there's a real break now at the at the grass roots level and and and the public sector unions are gonna have a hard time on the trip because he's going to make changes that going to be, I going to call government reductions.

I hope he extinguishes them, crush them. We shouldn't have a single public sector union in the united states.

The whole idea, growth task.

dollars held hostage by by federal employees or state employees at all things they they pay for their .

own politicians. Yeah, and they're not union readers. Their with union position.

You run copy machines in, man, some desk at the D. M. V.

I mean, these are not there's not labour. These are people's living off the public. Ted.

well, very well, no, right. And that's why you had people like the teams, head of the teams is nally coming.

speaking to the in .

boston and no truck and require a limit test support. He said, come to make your case. yes. And that resonates with the ranking file people that when you show respect to the union, when the union is jupiter is not taking a proposition. But that's your trump iis. I think he recognizes that every day is another day, and you build by consensus and the in communication, which is why, again, the the the global list and the leaders that the state department can handle the guy because he doesn't read from their playbook and he doesn't even look at her playbook because he thinks the playbook is wrong. And Frankly, ly, having dealt with a lot of those p kinds of people over my forty years of politics, he's right.

So given um trump sit in the seven battleground states ahead within the margin, but still ahead in all of them and given the vibe shifty and must coming out for trump bunch tech people coming out for trump, I think most people, if they're honest, thing trumps gonna in. What if he doesn't win? Will republicans accept .

that result is legitimate? The answer is ultimately yes. I think I mean, honestly, I deal with that scenario now because in my mind we're not gonna SE.

Um I will know if we lost how we lost will be relevant yeah and I don't believe that if you lose, you don't have a right to to question. But then you that comes a point when you have to move on. I don't know. So how we know what else would be relevant, but I don't see that, that happens.

A lot of republicans think that the system is worked against them.

And I understand that, 你到底。

我是谁 呢？

But the point is you you just can't give up and and you just have to be Better than you were before to to to succeed the next type. And you can complain about the past. You have to do something about the future. One of the things that i'm actually very proud of, what shop is done in the this cycle is he doesn't think you should have early voting.

He thinks election day should be election day, but he recognizes that you got ta play by the rules that are the rules today and and the what we have done past two elections cycles of ignoring early day voting is, like in baseball, have designated Better. But since is that on the field, you just don't let just go up to bed. He just taken out every time he that spot comes up in the bed in order let's what we are doing, an early voting, we were not participating in in a lot, and the democrats were.

And the two things that energized their people early IT got if IT bank votes before the campaign was over, so that we always were twenty, twenty are closing, campaign was much stronger, and then the the campaign and around the convention and in september, but so many people had already voted, that many of them would have possibly changed and voted differently if they had only been one election day. You know, right now, the rest one of the things that trump campaign did very well this time is we were doing a in october camping camp, uh program in August and september because we knew that early voting in was starting in the october. And so we had have the electorate mindset where they Normally would be on october one if they are on october first.

So that means we had to be defining her heavily in in september. We had to be defined the differences between trump and in logis ah and we had to be spending the kind of money that was necessary to have the penetration tion uh so that by now were focused on the last five percent, not on the fifty percent. We and we've done that well and that's why the campaign is closing, where you're starting to see the race tip publicly towards trump.

The bedding markets are tilting that way. The market the stock market, I think is pricing in. If you look at the kind of companies that are are going up, the companies that would deal what do well in a deregulated economy under a president drop.

Um so all that's happening because our closing campaign was happening in september and now were getting out the vote because they're ready to vote. We've talked to them and they're now voting. Um that's all suffer gave up at last time we were running our october campaign, last time in actos.

Er and by september, they made their they defined us because early voting isn't just who gets to vote, is how you to persuade them to before they vote. And they were doing their their october closed in september, getting their votes banked. And we were talking to people that already voted by the time we did our close in campaign in october that change this time trump is that a massive giant campaign.

Leadership is been brilliant at this. And putting the calendar of one people vote into the strategy of how we run the campaign, and they've done so. And and as you said to your point a year ago, this is a guy that should be have been dead five or six times games, and he's now heading into the last two weeks as the .

front room and cheerful fully and you're doing the same. And I IT does feel like that part of the key of living a successful, happy life is dealing with realities you find IT and letting go over the past. When you you've been in d case in the entire time, I was there as a very famous republic and Operative working in foreign countries and all over all of the world was all fine.

Then you become trust campaign manager for like twenty minutes. And the next year, others setting you after prison, you get sent to prison because you are for tram. Nobody, republican or democrat, ndc doubted that for one second period.

So I say that the fact IT is a fact IT was Andrew wise to this because you work for trump. How do you let go of that and stay cheerful and forward looking? You don't seem bit at all.

We just had breakfast. You aren't ranting about anything. How do you do? How do you do that?

But you have to have faith, which I do, have family, which I do, and believe in yourself, which I do. And the and when you're advising people on all of the contradictions of politics in the world, you got ta recognize that, that affects you too. It's so if people have gotten make adjustments because of contradictions that they see that they don't like, then I thought I needed to as well.

Look again, that's a lot easier to describe them to pull off.

Well, except it's over now for me, have gone through that crucial and pulled IT off was hard, but that's where faith and family came into account. And that was for this.

Did you make a decision not to be angry?

yes. When well, when I was in sd, a confining, when I wasn't solid confining yeah the biggest part of a crisis like what I went through was before you thrown into the fire. When you are standing by the fire and the you see in the fire flames, you can grow in in the fear of being in that fire is overwhelming.

Once you sitting in the fire, you either give up and die, when is literally, in some cases, but certainly figure timely, or you make adjustments to how to live in the fire. And I made the adjustment that the, then I had a criminal family, a lots of good friends, some people who weren't my friends anymore, but that would find that means they were a really good friends and in my faith Carried me through. Um and I decided that when I got through IT, when I was over, if I then was gonna be bitter and angry, then that means I be reliving the worst parts of IT all.

And why would I do that? And uh so I decided I was going to move on. I I mean, yeah, my wife said something that was very prophetic in the beginning.

I mean, I started my career washington with nothing. I was being from a blue color family. I, you know, no, I really had no money at all.

I made living. I did well. They took IT all away from me.

My wife was saying to me, in the Prices slip, we started with nothing. We have, we found each other. We will still have each other. And what that work out. And he was right and that that get me going.

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I watched you, uh, walk through a crowd at the republican convention of a Walker this summer and absolutely treated like an old friend and hero by everybody there. And you seem there was a lightness about you. And I thought, man, if I were paul manager red, I would just be enraged. And you didn't seem enraged, ed at all.

You seem IT was I was like the family welcome me and and a family who knew that I had given a myself for them and there was a lot of love that I noticed I said and IT may be really feel validated that I did the right thing me.

well with that said, I just I I mean this from my heart. I could not admire your attitude more um I really couldn't. I hope that I would behave as mindfully as you have and as forgivingly as you have.

That said, the forces that put you in jail because you are Donald trump's campaign manager, that's the reason um they still exist and they still have power and so if trump becomes president, what does he do about that? What does he do? But Andrew wiseman, I see on television, I can hardly believe that guy. I has any credibility.

I mean, I, what travel do trouble do? But I what I think you will do, I mean, you will remember in twenty sixteen, one of the rally is key champing slogans was locker up, locker up when he got elected present. You d never heard that word once no, he didn't. And that's because that's not who is. He's not eventual man.

No.

that's for sure. And and kid.

he can hear a little bit of a less sometimes .

but he's not in. And he put country to what cares and buy something about him. He put the country first as president. And he said that I gotto work with the democrats, but I try to lock her up.

Yeah, I will destroy my ability to to be an effective present and even when they were impeaching him, he still working with the democrat or policy stuff um so what will he do as president? The number forty seven, I think you'll do a lot, lot needed. Number forty five, we will focus on things and agenda that will make the country Better, that make amErica great again.

This is because he is, this is his legacy term now, and he doesn't wanted to be filled with the the kind of anger and and the and volatility of the first term. H, with all the impetus of thing like that. And so I think he understands getting even is not getting smart. And I will be surprised he does anything but reach out across the I O, and trying to make past the legislation that way the country Better.

What do you do about C, I and D O, J. And these institutions, which have been instruments of the democratic party's political agenda.

yes, I think he understands government Better than he did in twenty six to seventeen. And he knows the dangers that the wrong people in office can be, can cause, not just at the top level, but inside the sister as well. And so I think there will be blue, can blue room kind of commissions to, like Carter did, was stance filled Turner, C, I, A.

And when the C I was coming through all the around county stuff and things like that, uh, every reaction that 刚 直播 的 the water gates stop where he um he had a commission to put together that cleaned ed up the C I noted the cii， something I thought was Better at the time I realized was probably good, probably pretty yes. And and I think that's just to C I. I think all of the departments and agencies where you have bureaucrats who have forgot their own genders that the american people legende, I think they will all be tested.

And that's really what he's talking to. Elan mosque. I mean, government cutting government is getting rid of not just the fat of government, but getting rid of the poison of government. And uh and some of them are not just policies, are people and uh or departments, I should say in the departments are defined by the people and and and I think trump is looking to reform government that reform in a getting rid of anybody who doesn't agree with him. The reform government quit people make the system work away, this system supposed to work to protect the american people, a political party or political structure are you confident .

that he's got the right canada's for a state department for C. I. director? D.

O, D, do he is yet? I think he knows what he needs now versus what he needed last time. A, and and I think there are enough people who have manifest themselves as committed to his make amErica great agenda uh which is a enda that is pro american, not pro trump ah they'll ll be able to find the right people to do that.

You don't seem worried that the countries gonna fall into some sort of permanent conflict after november.

It'll be conflict. But I think you can let yourself be governed by the fear of conflict. First of the fear doing something right. And I I mean, I believe, I mean, I hear all these things, but I know trip. I no trump since one thousand nine hundred eighty one, since eight one, one of our first clients for ten stone and uh after reagan was elected president um what do you .

do for me?

Uh well he he he wanted we stone one of my partners and eight we handled the northeast region in new york and the course of running that Operation he got to know trump and trump would always interested in politics, uh and wanted to have a sort of ison ears. And he liked Roger so he hire us h to just be his political eyes and ears and washington and he had things we did. But this result .

we got .

here like why there are legitimate issues that we get involved. But but you just a light right over that, right? But but i've I know, I know what's IT is hard. I've seen the way people who work for him really respect him and appreciate him.

I've seen him do things that here he never hear about for for people that work in the doorman and one of his so tales or yeah, somebody worked on one of his construction sites or a family of one of his families that work for, uh, he's got a big heart. He doesn't hair. He's not motivated by venture or anger.

He's moved by getting things done. He doesn't start fights, he finishes them, doesn't know sometimes IT stop sooner. But he he doesn't live a life that's directed at revenge.

And he's not the person that the media is trying to to find a man. And if so, I think the greater good is what's gona move him in his legacy. Or what's .

the relevance of crypto currency in this election? Do you think all the Crystal people seem for trump? H is that meaningful?

Uh, the right now, I do know trump feels like the cyp to world is part of the future of our of the economic structure of the world and he sees the the biden hair administration is pushing IT offshore into the hands of china and into the hands of of the darker side of the the of the economy and his action is the best way to influence through proper growth is to bring IT onshore to regulate a properly and let IT become an american industry just like dream woods did to the dollar in the aftermath of world war two and is the support that.

I mean that seems like it's gonna happen doesn't yes does what you said .

that one of the .

reasons people um or voting for trump er one of the issues and he has the advantage is his stewardship of the rest of the world of the american empire which um you know has been in a very different place to the last four years we have run the verge of global conflict under the stewardship of bin haris non a overstatement if trump's lected, how is he going to prevent world or three from happening? What does he do? Well.

first of all, he knows the world leaders. And the world leaders know him, yeah. And they respect him as a strong leader, something they don't feel about biden or hairs. And so they know they can negotiate with him. They can talk with him, but they also know there's a fine point that there's a real line in the sand to use the obama line, red lines, logy.

And for example, in the gulf, know this message, the gulf, why did that have? Why is why is go in the kind of two modern right now? Because there's no the the countries in the gulf don't trust united states.

That's true. I think that's the bottom line. And trump understood who the enemy of the gulf states were as well as the end of the united states that was one country was iraq.

Biden is an apologist for a run here is is apologies for a they they buy into the giant Carry theory of iron uh and the sauty raia the united boris the oman oman is uh none of them buy into iran is as a country of of a leader in the gulf. What job was doing with the Abraham accords was went to being peace to the region. What he was doing with iran from day one was to define iran in poverty.

Iran is a political country, and allow the people the opportunity to rise up against the the fascist regime. But the moves are running there. And and IT was working. I mean, the abm accords, if trump had been reelected, sauty would have signed IT. Jordan was was signed in IT a israel was bound to him and they were in that was moving towards a peaceful resolution in an isolation of of a RAM.

When biden became president, he immediately, you know, the institute is less, he could be the nuclear deal with the with iran, given a even more than they add and wanted, gave them billions dollars that then use the fund terrorist activities around the world and against real, and he told, more importantly, the other gulf states that they can trust that states. So what is the, what is the ambitions of this world do? What did the emi dies do? They started reaching out to china.

They started reaching out to russia. why? Because they needed protection against an unreliable united states, and they didn't want to be find themselves isolated, uh, in some kind of access of the world against that.

That is literally true. I mean, the ever was attacked by proxies, and the U. S. Was incredibly slow to respond to protect them. These are small countries that great.

So this is an area where trump immediately has credibility as the right leader in the gulf with everybody but iran.

I mean, I happen to think that iran is always measuring what it's going to be like to be under president and trump and they're back in off certain things right now um and they're right to do that because trump is to come in and reinstitute to drop out is around around I mean, there were two countries that were enemies of the united states in trump size, uh that needed to be empower shed in order to then be brought into the world community. Iran was one of those two and the other was russia and um uh and he was with iran. He couldn't the rules wouldn't talk to him with russia.

Coulton was smarted after to know you talk to trump. And that's why a dialogue was existing that could grow into some kind of a relationship. And for all of these, to people who accuse trumpy and soft on putin, one, they know that that true.

But two is part of the philosopher at the at the state department and in the davos world that you if you just ignore your enemy, it's gonna get Better. And from that is if you don't engage you, your enemy or your adversary, uh, or your competitor, whatever the case might be, uh that the that you're never gonna get Better and that things will find a way to get worse. Ah and so that's why he would cross over the dmc to see kim jon and his own without state department freak out that he decided waking up that morning that he wanted to do IT.

Um I was with him. I saw that yeah yeah, yeah that that was a kind .

of ad hawk trip yeah but he understood. Let kim soon look in my eyes. Let pun look in my eyes. Let this on. Look my eyes. I mean, the message said the decision that was the most impact for message sent to china during his old presidency was when he was having the state, a state dinner for decision ping.

And he was sitting right next to an ping, and he leaned over in the middle of the dinner that I just want you to know, we just killed, uh, some money. If you look at the the cameras, SHE is jumping. Face turned White.

I mean, here, the president in united states, before any of the people in that room who are part of his government, U. S. Government, no present choppers letting you on pink.

Now, this is how we treat our enemies. And the world got the relationship between china and in the U. S.

Under trump, tens of times. But IT worked. The relationship worked. They were dealing with issues. Uh, no. But they were solved in everything, but they were dealing with them.

Uh, and the same thing was going on with putin, same thing was going on with the with iran, although he wasn't communicate with them directly, but indirectly, he was letting to know that we're gna impose sue, and we are going to do everything we can until you become A A reliable nation of the world. But more important than that, the way he was treated around was giving confidence to the allies in the gulf. That will be your friend, uh, and will be there for, you know what is what is you know what is the B A, E.

And and so we want in the future, they're trying to bring their countries into the modern world. They're trying to expand the petrol dollars into improving their their economies in each of them is doing a different, different way. But all that is looking at how do we protect ourselves against our number one enemy, which is iran ah and that's the us.

What do they want? They want an umbrella of peace. How do they get an umbrella? The abril hama, he was part of IT.

The studies IT would like to have the kind of commitment from the united states that we gave to japan after world war two. Well, we said that we would. You are under our protection. And uh uh, is that to have a military force there, not to be fighting wars there, but just to be under our protection because that sends sufficient signal to the incentive in the gin south east asia and it'll send IT in the gulf to iran to not mess with the the soon .

how is he going to end the warn ukraine, which doesn't seem to be .

helping anybody, I think so. I think. I think he understands that you cannot have this work continuing, and I think he will sit down with all sides if he's got mean, do that, giving you to say anything out of school. But he's going to make them all understands in the world's best interest and their best interest to put this war behind and he's there's some tools that he can use to make each side come to table and seriously negotiate um but he will personally inject himself into IT he won't is give IT to a third party person to do that. He will make this on the front end his responsibility.

And I think he believes that without getting way too complicated, all the parties as the table, the europeans, the free, the russians, the ukrainians, all have have reason to want this thing to end and there are pieces that can forget the public generic and the public decision. There are, there are things that can happen that all sides can, except if they know that is going to be pushed on them by somebody who will enforce IT bitings. Like that person doesn't scare a person when he sits down in fact they would surprises at the table as opposed to in a sare behind the table uh is just not a leader um and a and so that presence of of the president hovering over everything, injecting himself into plus relationships with all of those people me even slinky h was there when trouble was the present the first time.

Will have a lot more impact right now. There's nobody run in the ukraine peace process. Nobody a their peans don't have the the vision or the will to take a position against putin that will force pun to give into ukraine and they don't have a strong opposition against putin that will force ukraine to give into you to but I .

mean europe, if you look at europe, just go to europe um over the last almost three years now, since this war started in february twenty twenty two, europe has declined in every sense. I mean, this was a poor, more chaotic place than IT was three years ago. I mean, this is crushing europe. So I don't understand why there's no european leader who can particular in germany, but not just and take control and bring this to an end because .

it's killing our consequent who's european .

litter unfair.

And so they're all just a bit mission, their own self survival inside their countries. I mean, marcal head is sort of more european oriented reputation, but germany is not the one to leeuwen in the way this is disaster. Yeah and yeah and there's nobody else. There's no thatcher. There's no even bird soni ah who could have press certain things uh you know shells probably on his way out a in germany mccoy is on his way out. Um you know the spanish, you know they did not even knows in office these days you know the italians but one is emerging she's she's becoming one of the more forceful leaders in europe but she's doing IT gradually SHE has not immersed as a pan european .

no he is in but she's .

get IT but he is emerging because she's been willing to do certain things. And then the eastern europeans are frozen out by the western europeans where you have some of the struggle leaders. Um so there is nobody to solve the problem even though it's the european union. It's really the european disunion because all the countries have their own interest and they they always they use the barac I of the eu enhance their interest to the diminishment of the other members of the european union uh times but so none of them he have this statue to lead a united front against putin or against the lines.

Do you think that they sense that their content is dying?

No, because they've created this world and so they think is the right world. Yes, I mean that you go to davos and you sit around and you realize that people live in a bubble. Yeah, they have no idea.

They have no idea. And but but the bubble is the bubble they created. And and so i'd like you'd see on the with the left here in the the united states, they think transgender is the future.

They think that the women mention be able participate in in female sports of their transgender well safety in europe with with global ism. They think this is the right way. And of just everybody will do what we say, what we say, then they'll be Better off. And IT is that that talk yeah well.

there are joke to the rest of the world and I guess they're always the last ones to know that they are um so you think trump what what would peace terms look like in new ukraine? And I should say for those who don't know you spent I don't know at least ten years, how long did you spend working ten years working in ukraine on the most powerful outside political figures in in ukraine, deeply knowledge about IT you an office there um not on the progress IDE I should say uh but what given your knowledge of that country and region, what would a settlement realistic settings look like?

Well, I mean, I I think they will. A lot of the pieces may neto be a part of, you can with other things that russia might feels important to them in russia or in dealing with certain other parts of the world uh or or some of their technology needs of things like that. There are pieces to a game that that will interest button that you can facilities getting to russia sooner than later in a peace process negotiation um to the porters of .

ukraine change do you think? Well depending .

how you look at premier, ukraine still accepts says premier belongs to craine russia says no crime is part of russia. I think crimea probably stays where they currently are positioned right now for sure. I don't see that happening, but slinky in the ukrainy say, we got to have .

you raine back, you cry me up. But that are silly. I mean, are going to give up the base right now in that.

yeah, I mean, yeah, poor things. One of the biggest mistakes in the history of the soviet union was when crush jeff, who was from ukraine in in a moment of of enthusiasm, gave ukraine independence from russia. As know, the independence in the soviet union was not really independence, but I gave them the ability to be considered a country on their own, not a vessel state of the soviet union.

Important never accepted that um so when he became into power, one of the first things he wanted to do was get ukraine back into russia where you think I belong as you know, kv was the first capital of of russia uh and and and crimea which had an important the military component for for russia where they had their their basis and where he was an access to the black a um that was and was a very russian enclave. As supposed to ukrainian, that was the first place he struck when he had thought saw the opportunity under obama. And if so, I think that will be, I be surprise, anything changes.

And crayon that's too much of a swallow without russian losing the war yeah and happy no, I don't I don't see them winning the world, but I don't see them lose in the world. Um I think that is their economic issues of of rehabilitation of the country in reconstruction because eastern ukraine destroyed both the industry and the and the whole infrastructure. Um I I think eastern ukraine IT will be in some capacity still part of ugine, whether they have autonomous zones at, but as a part of ukraine, an versus autonomous zones as a to truly autonomous, you know that will be part of negotiation silence he can give up with eastern eukaryotic, but silence sky and the the center of ukrainian universe is key and west that east of cave um and so the destruction allows for some creativity.

Destruction of the east lot of creativity and and the resolution are we to find the your structuring of IT? I don't think I don't think they give IT up, but there may be some kind of concessions that can be made that will save face or putin, save territory for ukraine and get money into reconstruction part of the world. Um but there there's a way there's a play there there is a way to to get a ceasefire and to get the people talking and everybody wants that. Just nobody is the leadership do IT trump is the leader who can do IT um and this there's the nato factor too which will be relevant to putin uh and some kind of commitment that ukraine, even as part of the european trade union trade association would ever be wouldn't be part of nato. I think that's something that's on the table.

We did a live tour last month. One of the funnest things we've ever done, coastal, coast, sixteen different cities speaking well next week, our grand, finally, halloween, october thirty first, twenty twenty four in lendon. Our special guest that night, days before the first election, Donald trump, all proceeds donated to hurricane lief, were proud to do IT hope to see you there.

So for the years that you worked in ukraine, was ukraine joining nato something that most ukrainians wanted or that europe wanted?

No, nato is a political issue. Joining the european union is an economic issue, right? And what do ukrainians cared about was the economic issue? Um yes, they wanted their independence, but there wasn't they weren't fearful of russia invading before, uh, at that point. Uh and the russians didn't want nato, the border of ukraine. Oh yeah.

So why did the bite administration? So if ukrainians weren't begging to be in nado and nato didn't want ukraine in nato, which I think is all true, crack me from then. Why was the by administration common hair specifically calling in public for ukraine to join nato? What would be the point of that?

Because yeah, I think you I can't justify a policy that the your paints didn't want, the ukraine don't want. And the russian dione and the U. S.

Was four. okay. So then maybe if putin says says out loud and certainly suggest IT again and again, if ukraine joins nato, I will move militarily against ukraine. Everyone knew that. Even I knew that living a long way from ukraine and the by administration says, no, we want ukrainian ado and says that two zeeland ski in public in early february twenty twenty two. Maybe they wanted russia to invade ukraine.

Maybe they are just stupid. Because there was no, but I mean, that was the red line. Yeah, there was.

And nobody wanted IT IT suffered. Biden, you know this much of approach to things and I truly a lack of understand. It's not like i'm telling you what you that was a secret. This was all publicly known yeah and in an university .

known in ukraine, right right .

and and very few people would have ever suggested that and that's what cause well, the afghanistan tobacco, right, coupled with the threat of nato in ukraine and the lack of respect that putin here for anybody, part of the the foreign icy oppress biden that were part of the obama, uh, uh, government, was all that was necessary to light, light the Spark that create the fire. And but there was no reason for IT. IT was an unforced era of mac, of incredible consequence. Well, yeah.

how many people do you think have died in ukraine?

All i'm told, over hundred thousand ukrainians and over three hundred, a thousand russians. I don't know that, but i'm told that.

So you are there. You are working in ukrainy in two thousand and fourteen when made on happened um we were told by our media that was a popular uprising against a rationalize government IT was totally organic now IT looks like IT was a coup or castrated by the CIA what was IT? And did you know what .

I was at .

the time? I was okay. IT was not her again.

He would be option be then IT was IT was there were forces that saw an opportunity to unseen a democratically elected president had a coverage who acted in ways that were entire democratic 嗯。

And um where was the obama administration onside?

Were they on? They were supporting. What was the revolution? T I was going out decay.

yeah. okay. So so the U. S. A department was on the side of extinguishing democracy, overthrowing a democracy like the leader.

effectively.

as yet. Where um did you want into Victoria noon?

I did.

Yeah what what was her and he was, I think living there part time .

overseeing all this .

he was a the resort .

been in washington.

You're very diplomatic. Um so I I think the overwhelming evidence points to her role in a coup against the democratic collected president of that country. And coverage you work for um and then he comes back to dc and gets an even Better job in the by administration and then she's now retired making a ton of money you by contrast, want to prison for. Can you remember why and fake reason that doesn't bother you at all?

Well that .

seems very unfair.

IT is unfair. Yeah and and and and that this is SHE gets rewarded and I get punished. But we shouldn't be medical in situations that are constitutional right democractic republics, uh countries that uh we don't like the outcome of an election. And uh, look, you had a coverage proved himself, in my judgment during the term of his presidency to be committed to europe. There were issues he was dealing with that if they had been supported by brussels, uh, to help ease ukraine's entrance into the european trade association agreement that we wouldn't have the the mess we have today in ukraine um if we had respected the will of the people and the will of the government elected by the people and worked with that government to bring them into ukraine as posed to punishment for being the wrong guy to win the election uh then they wouldn't end the environment that putin took advantage of that cost them crimea and cost them the destruction in eastern ugine and the billions of dollars that we spent uh you know, in support of the war that could have been spent for much how .

hard is IT for you to and listen to these exact same people, the ones who over through a democracy, elected government in a foreign country with a cup using the C I A and georgian snipers those people telling you that Donald trump is a, quote, threat to democracy. They must become on hard to watch that.

Well, it's why I got back in the settle of this election to election prison because we can't let those people win the elections. That's that's how I believe you fight. You fight elections and and and I believe, if you like, i'm A A fake.

I believe that this divide, he and and a lot of stuff, and sometimes we may not understand where's leading us. But if you think you know what's right, then you follow the course that consistent with that and ukraine, the mess that you that was created in ukraine in twenty fourteen, we are still paying the Price for today. And the the solution is not have the same people who cause the problem stay in power to manage the issue, what to change you? And by happenstance there was an intern period between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty when there was A U.

S. President who he was strong enough to keep piece in that region, even though there was a screw up in fourteen and the iraine that was supported by the west of changing power. And the opportunity now exists to bring that person back and they focus back and finish cleaning up the mess. And and that's what keeps me going, that what glow, what the Victoria nuland and reward was for creating the mess, but just helping to fix the clean up for good.

It's just the unfairness level is all time high .

in unfairness is we all know. Is that the way to drag your life?

Now that's true. Did you run in the hundred by in ukraine?

I didn't heard what steps did.

What was he doing there? Did you know at the time?

Well, joe biden was the link between the obama administration and the anchor administration and and he turbine was showing in lots of interest in ukraine. And and are you actually negotiate with what his people, the, the, the other, the removal of all nuclear efficient materials in ukraine as part of the world conference that was trying to collect all the vicious efficient materials from from the form of of soviet republics.

And but there was always more interest in ukraine from some of these people, which I attributed to hunter, although I didn't know was actually hunter, but some of the people who was part of this doing business in ukraine, and I didn't do any business in ukraine. Other the politics I specifically didn't because ukraine is it's it's a corrupt country, not one side of the other is a corrupt country that has a soviet mentality. It's getting Better, but it's still it's not good. So I felt that if I wanted to have the influence to help bring ukraine into the into the west, if I wanted to do the kind of policy things that got me involved in ukraine in the first place, I shouldn't do business. Even though I could have .

done business, I was to say, to be tempting.

you must have energy deals come on across the and and big money, fast money. And I said no to all of them. And because I knew that would undercut me at the reason that they had trouble when they went after, when White man, when mother went after me, finding something to stick me with is because they kicked over every rock they could in ukraine, and they didn't find one single thing.

And so I thought I was on, told the hottest firm was openly solicit business. And I was being an assured we do this, should do that. But my, not hunter himself, I did that. I that I was heard enough.

And I all the in a coach administration, I said, look, if IT makes sense to use them, the part of a group that is the democratic side on the republican inside, it'll help your country. They have relationships on both sides. But I didn't know what they were doing. I didn't know about the brisk thing at the time. I didn't now some of the other activities they were tried to undertake.

But I mean, IT seems by definition like influence peddling great. What they were .

doing well. They had the power. They were the government in other states. And ah it's one thing to do. Business is another thing if if you are related to the people with power to be doing business the way they were doing yeah and the ukrainians again, because of the corruption streak in ukraine, were first to realize the opportunity.

Tory knew and announced in a hearing, a senate hearing in response to question from mark rubio a few years ago that we had a bunch of bio labs, quote, bio labs in ukraine apparently been a while. Did you ever hear anything .

about that when you're there.

when you're for in a coverage? How vigorous was U. S. Government activity in ukraine like intelligencies military CoOperation .

we and CoOperation and intelligence Operations they had us was given a listening post in parts of ukraine that they were never given under any previous government. Um the CoOperation level very high, the moving of allowing U. S. Businesses to invest easily into ukraine ine was was wide open. They weren't of which had given the word we want to make the united states a strong partner is so why the U.

S. Overthrow and threat his .

life because of two things. Number one, he was the candidate of kuchma and the establishment in two thousand four, when you shank le one the election or property tly, one, the election. And then in two thousand and two eleven, after he was elected president, he did something which I vigour, sly told me shouldn't know, which was he he arrested his opponent polio opponent uh ulia timeh cho for corruption when he was prime minister that even uh anko acknowledge was corruption and and thought that the indication was appropriate uh of of timeshare co well timing anko was part of the albright miracle clinton you .

click and they .

could shoes female well that was one ready to find them um and that and they took great umbrage to get a coverage doing that even though he made his case no very factually .

wait so so he made Hillary clinton mad and that's why he got overstrong.

Ah effectively yes, effectively because he had not done that. If you are not invited to masanobu, I think we should have been the right thing not to do. We shouldn't have done IT, not from a legal standpoint, but from a geopolitical standpoint. And given the history of yana coverage, IT was Better as trumped with hilary clinton to not lock her up. Ana coverage should have just moved on and not locked up to machines.

Le, how many foreign leaders did Hillary clinton killer overthrow because they annoyed her?

I don't know. I've never totally that up.

but you really think that that that was the key mistake he made.

That's what turned the west against the west machine.

A man and not friends with have been different .

outcome probable.

Let's scary what you you're describing.

But so she's part .

of a girl's clubs so he can .

be arrested for corruption I am wasn't t the is ironically to mechanical was the russian candidate for president against and coverage um which is what was the cause of the corruption right and and yet the west blame the ana coverage and accused him to be in the russian candia uh and so i'm sure putin was just laughing in the kremlin at the markarian way use manipulating in the west in this little game um but that was the critical is again a coverage media president that uh affected a series events that we are still dealing with today in ukraine IT sounds like the U.

S. Government was just so way up into the internal affairs of this country like this country had no sovereign doesn't well, the first will now, are you worried that this war, if he continues, could lead to a global conflict or nuclear? Why .

don't body nuclear war could important and important right now is learning a good life, and isn't the sense that his economy is stronger than .

has ever been? Pom, and for we d destroyed the russian economy with sanctions that we stroyer .

trump hand to put the pressure on and buy on did IT all. And I mean, when trump can be became present, he shut down north stream to which was the pipeline that that was going to be the solution for germany to become partners with the energy sector in russia. Uh, and uh and he put sanctions on, uh, some sanctions.

And thanks for on putin for things he was doing that were causing problems. And as a result, putin baked off of everything and was A. Uh, an active player, but not an aggressive player out, you know, he is a national st.

Leader of russia. A IT was when trump left office that puttin became. The aggressive leader was under obama that LED him to take in crimea under obama and with the same cast of players now in charge of view and four spiles U.

S. Foreign ality under by naas, he saw the Operation to finish the job. And that's what IT.

And when in afghanistan happened and nato became the, the, the, the the crazy thing that biden IT said, uh, was the basic golf of you for the U. S. Policy for ukrainy.

That was all he needed those two things, the afghanistan tobacco and the in the nato threat to justify going back, going to finish the job, uh, with policy blunder after policy blunder with no fourth. One of what IT might mean, I mean, even the polls were not pressing for ukraine to be in nato at that time. And there are the front line after after ukraine and dealing with russia. So biden, his administration was filled with on four stares and foreign is.

you know, tony blinking. How would you describe him?

what? He's a staff guy. Twenty banking is the staff guy who in the old organization book the Peter principal by dr.

Peter, you rise up to your level of incompetence. Well, he's reason to beyond this level of a governance as as jack, solvent and server. The other people.

they seem like medals. They seem like medals.

They're staff. There are staff who now have policy making. They have no creativity, no strategic thinking and and so you get a lot of inconsistent things based on what paper crosses the desk. And then when you have somebody like biden who was not in his best health, even in his and uses president, and who when he wasn't his bett health going to people like Robert gates never made a forever post decision that was right, uh, compounded the the dangers that the blinkin of the world could do. And we're in the the world is a must.

because IT certainly is.

Second .

question, do you you hear people say that kicking russia at a swift, the sanctions all accelerated the demise of the U. S. dollar.

Do you think that's eminent? No, why? I mean.

first of all, there is no competition to the taller. The R, M, P is less than one percent of four and trade. And there is the biggest economy in the world.

Uh russia is economy is is not at all an impact for it's a third world economy. The euro as A A as a european currency has value um but there too many leaders of of the european union to ever have a consistent foreign economic policy. So there's really no competition.

Look what brick has been chinese been trying to do with the brick's organization in trying to get a so kind of digital currency that could be a replacement for the dollar in foreign in forever trade is fAiling miserably because the end of the day, nobody wants to hold the weak currencies in their treasury as part of the foreign trade system. So it's never gonna work. And, uh, so, and this is what trump is very smart.

Trump say, okay, crypt world, this is, this is the future economic policy of potential of the world well, we did have the fourth cks of bitcoin sitting in the united states night in beijing uh, and so what happens when truck make that statement on the campaign trail where he is is onna have a crypto foreign reserve uh in the in the united states by immediately cells off twenty percent of its bit of the U。 S. Is bitcoin that so it's told in and guess we buy IT china, it's hope.

But china, in a bit binding, an attempt to distinguish himself from trumps for new economic policy. The U. S makes china's stronger in the process. That's a good kind of mentality that we deal with uh um in this administration.

But trump understands that having gypt regulated in having a reserve currency here you know will make you become A U S based economic uh uh structure and therefore like a dollar can become part of the economic power of the U. S. worldwide.

So again, trump is scene around the corner ahead of people's vision and is not seen. No, the black chain, the black chain is the most transparent thing you could have. Uh, you know.

So if you worried about money laundered and things like that, there are so many ways to, you know, uncover money. London in the crypt to the world, it's going to be regulated. So things to set up the right way, trump sea said.

He doesn't know what the right ways are, but he knows, he knows conceptually, making the potential future economic, uh, uh, make means of the world transactions in non U. S. Structure is probably not good.

No, probably not good. Probably the end of something big. Okay, my final question. You've run all these campaigns of your whole life in the final week. What are the markers, the measurements that the rest of us can look at to determine who's gonna win publicly available information?

Well, the problem is publications ailed information may not be publicly rect by design. So is that true?

okay. So let me say that to what extend our public polls manipulated to sway public opinion.

But it's just public polls be that is how they're interpreted because what happens, people don't know how to read pose. People know how to read two things, who's the first place? Who's in second place? So in a ballot who's winning, that's all they know how to do.

And when you have a race set is arguably close um and you have one side who may be losing, having all of the means to communicate a different message. It's hard for american people who don't pay attention beyond what they see in morning the united news of what IT means. I have no doubt my mind that the media, until election day, we will say that haris is gonna win, or is leading or can win, is IT gna win. I think what will be signs of what's happening?

What why would they say that, do you think?

Because by defining things they're hoping to make IT correct yeah and IT affects turnout. IT affects uh for example, IT affects motivations. Um right now the public data shows trump in in all seven battleground states. That's that's an improvement over the last two weeks.

Everybody recognizes that the move is towards trump, yet you've got the media sane because they need a hook that here is new campaign strategy of the saying that the trump is unhinged, unstable and unsafe is going to change the the, the trajectory and the undecided voice are going to break for trump. Well, why would they? Why would that happen? There's nothing to say.

Why would that happen after the media things can happen? Because here is a saying that there is no evidence that indicate that that message is working with undecided. If you look at the data because they're saying what's important to them is their life has gotten worse.

They're not Better off than four years ago. They think trump is Better on economic policy for them personally. They think trump Better for them safety wise. They think trump is Better for them to uh h to secure the border and they are saying these are the most important issues but we're onna vote against trump because he's unsafe and unhit that's a campaign message that's not a direction of things are going.

The media divides the campaign message for errors now, so that's why I mean, what I mean when I say it's gonna hard to interpret unless the public polling starts to grow, but with the two person stand to be three and four percent for job in in states, and the four percent become five or six. Now interestingly, you can see any national polls this weekend. why? I don't know well, but maybe because the last two weeks, the national polls and the staples were all showing moving to trap. And so therefore, will they hit a week off and then set things start to change again? Um now if .

you're in the polling business, now is a weird time to take off.

I mean.

there was a subtle I mean.

I think they'll be some pose they going to do polin this week. And then if the things are opening up for trump the way I think they, they will start to show we'll have to start tempering in their state with little bit, but you're not going to be able to tell it's the racist close enough that there's not going to be like with rain and Carter. I can read something out there that says it's over.

We got one thousand nine hundred and eighty four and not one thousand nine hundred and eighty where they would do with in one forty nine states. Um so I think what you wash for is incremental changes in the ballot, but it'll be hard because everybody's methodology is different. So you'll have you know raced word trumps down one point in replace and up three points in the same place in a different poll. So are going to be confused.

Are there any polls that you think you're consistently more accurate?

the. Others um I I think. Most likely, what's gna be important going into the last week is the the reti c of Harris. If if there's no discussion of economic issues and SHE know she's lost because that's gonna the decision for that the last time. But I think just watching the trend of some of the public polls will give you some sense of things.

All my effort, I would sure appreciate your taking all this time. Thank you. Thanks for listen and stuck across some show. If you enjoy IT, you can go to talk to cross and that com to see everything that we have made the complete library after cross.