cover of episode Trump's First Campaign Manager Paul Manafort Breaks Down the Current State of the Presidential Race

Trump's First Campaign Manager Paul Manafort Breaks Down the Current State of the Presidential Race

2024/10/23
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Paul Manafort认为,本届总统大选的关键问题是经济、边境安全和国际冲突,而不是候选人的个人特质。他分析了未决选民的构成,指出他们主要关注经济、边境问题和国际安全等问题。他认为,特朗普在这些问题上具有明显的优势,而哈里斯的竞选策略过于依赖于对特朗普个性的攻击,未能有效地回应选民的主要关切。Manafort还将本届大选与1980年里根竞选进行了比较,指出两者在关键议题和选民情绪方面存在相似之处。他预测,未决定的选民最终将主要支持特朗普,特朗普将赢得选举。他认为,哈里斯的竞选策略过于依赖于对特朗普的负面攻击,而未能有效地阐述自己的政策主张。他认为,特朗普在经济、边境安全和国际关系等问题上的立场更能赢得未决选民的支持。Manafort还分析了早期投票数据,指出共和党在早期投票中的表现并不落后于民主党,并在选举日拥有优势。他认为,哈里斯的竞选策略过于依赖于早期投票,而未能充分准备选举日投票。Manafort还分析了不同族裔选民的投票倾向,指出特朗普正在赢得越来越多的拉丁裔和非裔美国人选民的支持,这对于民主党来说是一个重大损失。他认为,特朗普的竞选策略成功地吸引了那些在经济上受困扰的选民,而哈里斯的竞选策略未能有效地回应这些选民的关切。Manafort还谈到了如果特朗普获胜,民主党内部可能出现的权力斗争和分裂。他认为,如果特朗普获胜,民主党内部的左翼势力将会进一步壮大,这将对美国政治产生深远的影响。Manafort还讨论了特朗普如果再次当选总统,将会如何处理与中国、俄罗斯和伊朗的关系,以及如何解决乌克兰战争。他认为,特朗普将采取更加务实和强硬的外交政策,这将有助于维护美国的利益和全球稳定。Manafort还谈到了他对美国政府机构改革的看法,他认为特朗普将对这些机构进行改革,以消除腐败和提高效率。最后,Manafort还谈到了自己入狱的经历,以及他如何克服困境并保持积极乐观的态度。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why do you say that Trump is winning moderates?

The undecided voter in some background states feels the country has been going in the wrong direction, hasn't benefited in the last four years, and remembers the positive aspects of Trump's presidency. They compare his record versus Biden's and find Trump stronger on issues like the economy, border security, and global safety.

Why is the Hispanic community favoring Trump?

Hispanic communities are suffering the most from illegal immigration, crime, and the impact of illegals in their communities. They see cultural values, family values, and school issues as better aligned with Trump's policies.

Why is Kamala Harris's campaign focusing on fear?

Harris's campaign is focusing on fear because the undecided voters left in the race are not convinced by her on economic issues. She is trying to peel off soft Trump votes or people who dislike Trump but are not for her by portraying him as unhinged and unstable.

Why do elitist Democrats hate Trump's working-class party?

Elitist Democrats hate Trump's working-class party because it represents a shift from the coastal elite focus of the Republican party to a more middle-American, working-class focus. This change in the party's composition and principles is not in line with the established ways of the Republican party they were part of.

If Trump wins, why will the left never accept the results?

The left will never accept the results if Trump wins because they have a history of contesting election outcomes, as seen with Hillary Clinton still contesting the 2016 election. They will likely use tactics similar to January 6th to challenge the legitimacy of Trump's victory.

How will Trump prevent WWIII?

Trump will prevent WWIII by knowing world leaders personally, being respected as a strong leader, and having a clear line in the sand for negotiations. He will engage directly with adversaries like Putin and Kim Jong-un, ensuring they understand his resolve and the consequences of crossing certain boundaries.

What would a Ukraine-Russia peace deal look like under Trump?

A peace deal under Trump would likely involve Crimea remaining part of Russia, eastern Ukraine having some form of autonomy within Ukraine, and concessions that save face for Putin while providing reconstruction funds for Ukraine. Trump would personally inject himself into the negotiations to ensure all parties come to the table seriously.

Chapters
Paul Manafort discusses how Trump is winning over undecided voters by focusing on key issues like the economy, border security, and international safety.
  • Undecided voters feel the country is going in the wrong direction.
  • Economy, border, and international safety are major issues for undecided voters.
  • Trump has a 12-point lead on these issues over Harris.

Shownotes Transcript

Paul Manafort went to prison for being Donald Trump’s first campaign manager. He’s out now, just in time to see Trump elected again. He’s thrilled about it. 

(00:00) How Trump Is Winning Moderates

(13:41) The Hispanic Community Favoring Trump

(22:03) Kamala’s Campaign of Fear

(38:34) Elitist Democrats Hate Trump’s Working Class Party

(52:47) If Trump Wins, the Left Will Never Accept the Results

(1:05:37) Manafort’s Time in Prison

(1:21:11)  How Will Trump Prevent WWIII?

(1:34:42) What Would a Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal Look Like?

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