Mark Halperin on Why He Thinks Trump Will Win and the Left’s Mental Collapse
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Welcome the tucker carlson show. We bring you stories that have not been showcased anywhere else. And they are not sensitive, of course, because we're not gatekeepers.

We are honest brokers here to tell you what we think you need to know and do IT honestly ly check out all of our content. And tucker crosson dock com, here's the episode. So where, like where are we? So or three, I think three weeks out today, what's the state of the race?

Well, people say it's gonna close for sure. I don't agree with that. I think he could be one. One of them could win easily. And I think today, that's more likely to be trump. All the variables that you would look at to say who's gonna win point towards chop, with four big exceptions that I think I know is what the democrats are lying on. So barring these four things coming, the other I think trump l win and I think he might win easily um but he is still a number one is abortion.

Just don't know a how big of vote will be now I say of people, why wouldn't that be showing up in the polls now? Why would be a secret? But the reality is there a, there's A A, an emotion to that issues. You know, politics is about emotion more than anything else. There's an emotion that issue that may be bigger than is currently measured.

Number two is but to be clear, that's not showing up in the public polls right now. Well, I mean.

by definition, it's not showing up. And in the two places you look for, one is in the so she's not way ahead in the horse race. And number two, when he asked people, what's the most important issue to you? Abortion is well behind the economy, inflation, immigration.

But, uh, but we've seen its electoral power and we know the funnel. Trump thinks it's a big issue because he's struggled to neutralized. He's not doing that for fun. He's doing that because he sees the same data that there is a power to this issue and maybe beyond the current measurements. That's number one.

Number two is simply is a gender gap just the the um the reality that women bought more than men and again they made this connection abortion but it's not just about abortion because women don't like them. A lot of women don't like that. May just power of Victory.

Three is her her grand game, right? The mechanical process her campaign is run a chair, the chair of her campaign, someone who grew up as a field person. I don't think that ever happened in a major presentin campaigning.

And they have way more money. And present tram has gone out of his way to demons. Early voting, trying change now. But the mechanics of that, if IT is in fact close, people say they could be worth three points. Three points could well be significantly bigger.

And then lastly is, is the notion that he has a ceiling that if if the third party vote is very low and it's much more likely to be low, like IT wasn't twenty than I like IT was in sixteen from libertarians and the Greens and and a corner west, then IT may be that he can get above forty seven percent, that this simply we call trump h fatigue, or january six, whatever you want to call IT, which puts off limits to him some number of voters, that that he may, in two, effectively a two person race on the seven states, maybe able to get to forty eight, forty nine, and he can't. Those four things are what give democrats hope that they can win. But in my reporting over the last week, republicans are not are not measure in the draft and picking the cabinet, but pretty close to a not at the level they worth the convention when job and was still their opponent.

But there's extreme confidence that they're going to take the house, take the senate, take the way. Has democrats are somewhere between worried and freaking out and her conduct and her capabilities as a candidate are not reassuring them. If they were honest about IT, they would say, as some of them had started to say, how could we have dump ed joby in for someone who has a few advantages over him but has many of the same problems and by the way, some additional problems of their own. And I think they're recognizing that when you choose a candidate like that, you're taking a bit of a risk and the risk may not just may not pay off for them.

So on what basis are they evaluating a race? Like what polls are, both sides people you listen to smart people um with predictive success over time. Like what are they looking at?

Well they're looking at the reality that the race may be back, as some trump people told me immediately after he became the omi. We may be looking at a situation where she's back to where the parties back to where they were when biden was nominee before the debate. Before the debate, he had one electoral code path, which was to win the three great lake states in the nebraska congressional district.

And that's IT. No one's ever won when they had one lector cog path. S S. No margin. Very, but not impossible. But they would have to be all in on that because biden was not gonna in the force and built banal ground.

She's edged back closer to that SHE SHE may be able to win them or one or two of them, but it's possible that those are going to be as off limits to her eventually as they were to to biden. And she's weaker in the great lake states than he. So if you look if you look at the private data and where things stand, these races are close.

And if it's if it's within two points, if trump has consistently has a two point lead or a three point leader or four point lead, does that mean he cast when the state IT doesn't? But it's a consistency that, that has come in the last couple weeks in both parties data where SHE has come down and he has come up a little bit that make them worry that he simply hasn't done enough to win. Her problem is, I say, the p problem of policy people, just that the undecided voters just don't understand what he is about and SHE has not done.

Did some of them find IT insulting? How little she's explained, what she's about? And we really don't know.

I've known a long time. I've covered her a long time. I've study to her positions and and our public policy engagement.

I don't really know what he stands for. I don't really know what you do is present. I don't really know what he believes in her, why she's running.

And you contrast this with trump, where even his enemies can tell you right away what he stands for, what he would do in a second term est, the big picture and his promise personality. And he's done almost as little to address that issue as she's done to address her. And that means i'm amazed people said for so long, no one, so many people, the elector don't want trump or buy.

They want a third choice. You don't really hear that now as nearly as much. But but it's it's almost as true, not as true because SHE satisfies a lot of democrats who are not satisfied biden, but a lot of democrats and certainly lot of independence and centers, and they don't like either of these choices.

And that's part of what democrat looking at because I think in the end, as much as she's not satisfied a people's desire for knowledge of Better, they won't vote for truth. They just simply don't want four more years of trumping. She's turned to that message in the last twenty four hours, the way biden did. Now I don't shall stick with that, but she's now oversizing this notion of we can go back to somebody this unstable and this um and this unattractive in .

terms of personality changing your personality is hard, will be impossible in any attempt to do IT comes off as false. So there's of course, a cost and risk, but coming up with a platform is not hard. You just sit in room with your pollsters and your policy guys and like pick three topics and take out positions that contrast with your opponents and I like why why meant they done that?

Yeah a lot of the questions about things she's doing and not doing um our mystery is even to a lot of democrats, even some people close to her, you've named one. But why is he doing one event a day? Some days? Most states.

Why isn't SHE flying to three battleground states in the day when people ask me why I think SHE she's more likely to lose than that. Her great weaknesses. SHE is indecisive.

SHE doesn't like to make hard decisions. And coming up with policy choices is difficult. If you think of everyone has been like to present since H.

W. bush. So CNN onward, they've all put at the center of their campaigns a set of policy proposals, and need those of the things to start with.

The sense what my parties gotten wrong is x right? They, they have. So they seized, done some things that they really believe their parties at a step with the country and wrong on the substance.

So bilk linton, ninety two, supported the death penalty, right to work, nata, uh, and welfare reform. And he would say, my party is wrong on these x right? And you tell this for the rest, ict, what they did.

Now he has SHE not said that. I'm not sure he believes that. I'm not sure that he thinks the party's out of step with the country on anything. And when you see government funded Operations, Operations for illegal immigrants who want, who want to change your sexual identity, no, no way would build clint or brock obama or hillery clinton or john kerry. No way would they have said, i'm fun for that.

What is is not strong public support for that?

No, to see that. So, so, so we say, why can't SHE come up with the platform? Any position SHE takes is going to be uh, criticized if SHE moves the center by the left and if and even on the left, even if he takes something further to the left as he has some of the things she's come up with, new government spending programs and tax programs, they're still subject to be criticized. And SHE doesn't like to be criticized. Sh'd rather try not to take positions now the other day.

but can ask, even within the democratic party, which I routinely dismisses, crazy and evil and poisons bad, but paying for six changes for legal alien, that can be a hugely popular issue.

even within the party that IT isn't. But IT is a popular position for the loud, angriest, most influential part of the part.

But if you do, this is a soldier that actually works. So if your goals to get elected, and and and this is a moral evaluation of this, right, but you just denounce the unpopular, what s in your party is not hard yeah right?

Well, it's it's hard for her because she's indecisive. SHE doesn't like that. That is that is I think what explains that you know her big sister soldier moment was to say, I want I want to cut raised the capital gains tax rate less than joe ban that was a big sister so german um SHE also, uh, you know you look at her career, she's not really been a fond of policy ideas, no.

And that she's stolen a lot of trump's ideas, which you know trump people don't like. But I guess it's smart. It's the other sides got a smart idea and you can claim to do, but terms of original ideas is just not been her thing. And again, I think partly as SHE doesn't like to go onto terrain where people might shoot at her from the left or the .

right or both and he is in a complex position just because of the the nature and he got to where he is now, the fact that there's a sitting president sort of in the shadows behind her. Um what is your relationship like with garden?

Well, it's goten a little bit afraid of late because I don't think he I think their people say he doesn't wanted to win. I think he just wanted to win. There are people who say, um he only wants her to win without disrespecting him even though he is said privately to her and the teams have said at each other if SHE needs to do what he needs to do to win I mean, you know, I saw his mental decline in in twenty twenty. I saw him to a public event for a book in twenty and I said after the vent, thank goodness he's off the public stage. Thank goodness this didn't happen or and so .

those of us who knew him before and speaking for myself, I was like them um in a very shallow way but you know he's a fun to beer around totally and sort of large personality touchy irish guy and I like people like that and but those who know him, I was immediately obvious that he had some sort of cognitive decline emotions .

so I think the things he's done of late that that the press is hurting her I just think he's doing because he's you know he's not he's not super sharp is come out of and the staff is as they have when he was still that I I need being deferential to him. But there is a again, just recently the last ten dayers.

So there have been a number of things like he went out in the briefing room right when he was starting her of that no one's really explained that that happened. Uh, it's hard to coordinate right between the west wing, wilmington and the vice present office like those are three entities, busy people doing other things besides cording. So I think they're drop some stitches. I think they're determined to stop dropping stitches .

the rest way you don't think is .

passed aggression. I don't think IT is many people I respect to think that. I think I think it's hard and he's not up to doing hard things. And she's even though you not campaigning very much, he's still on the road. And if I just think they are dropping stitches, i've really don't think there's a pass of aggressive or or even a mixed feeling about I think he wants her to want.

What I mean, the tougher question for her that I have seen is how will you be different from from job? no. Why can't? Why haven't they thought you a Better answer?

Again, it's hard to get a straight answer about that. I think if there are three things at playing, number one, SHE doesn't want to hear this loyal and and that is something he does care about. As I said, he wants her to win, but he wants her to win his way.

He doesn't want her to win at his expense. That that that is an ambivalence ance but not the fundament question that does he wanted win. So number one, he doesn't.

He doesn't want to disrespect him. Number two, taking different positions from him involves risk. There could be, there could be a backache, right? And SHE doesn't.

As I said, that's her main problem. SHE doesn't like to take risks. And then finally, um there's a there's a um there's just a basic performative question with her.

That's not our only bad 的 answer， right? That's the one that people focused on the most. But she's just not good at delivering sound bites or complicated messages in a way that that, that is helpful to her.

You know, he does his interviews where nothing bad happens, and they give five, five that nothing bad happened, or only a few bad things happen. None of these interviews has SHE come out of our people said, wow, now I get IT. Now I get why this person should be my president and that's, again, just estimates. She's just not that good at this thing called the answering questions that are hard or easy. Well.

what are the donors who put her their think of all of this.

So i'd say impressionistic ally, because I haven't talked to them all. But impressionistic ally, about eighty percent of them are just, we got to look forward, the elections coming up. Trump, muslims.

We have to do everything we can to help. Twenty percent say, how could we possibly have replaced we all said the only democratic could lose to robot to with joe biden. How could we have possibly play a role in replacing him with apparently the only other person who could lose the control?

Now joe bin ni and comber Harris would say these other democrats would have be struggling as much or maybe more than SHE would, even though they wouldn't been osberne with the biden Harris record. So what they're saying is this is the best we could do. This is Better than the pollsters in the public polls are saying he can still win IT let's put her head stand in win but there will be a lot of soul searching about how possibly could have placed her in this role without without the benefits of i've actually beating a trip.

How did that um I I think you were the one of the very for maybe the first person to report that this was coming by. I was gonna p decide how do you know that .

by the way I predicted .

IT but just predicted you reported IT. And so how did you know that and how how did that happen?

I reported IT against my instincts. Ts, because I did not believe joba and would give the nomination up first of all, as embarrassin, and was staying on his legacy as much as they built IT up as great for his legacy, but also he believed that he would become nominee in all likelihood, and that he could not be final drop, and that if somehow SHE didn't become nomini, he didn't think I have a new subgroup with more any these other people could be trouble.

And I think I didn't think common Harris could win or .

be a good president as I understand IT. So he was really yeah he he from the day from the transition forward, he told ron plain and everyone else SHE needs to meet with foreign leaders all the time and he did I mean, she's had an unprecedented kind of tutorial in that. SHE needs to be, you know, supported and all that.

We all know what happens. SHE did not run a good Operation. There was leaking and and her approval were ridiculously low. He he part of IT was his own, you know, pride himself.

But yeah but but the people are around them to a person would would not have told you that he could be tonal job um so my point is I reported on IT uh thinking he's not going to step down and and I had lots of people who we know you and I both know very smart who say you're you're wrong. He's gonna a have to step down. Particularly republican said the party can't be that irrational.

They can be say we're going to continue along with the guy who is who seventy percent of the democrats won't be nomi, but he didn't have to give IT up. So I think I can obviously say exactly how I broke up, but I started with a tip about the wedding of vice presidential prospects by her. And one of the stories that hasn't been written yet.

I'll take that out here. Enough fly someday, someday will give a big enough book contract I can write. Is he started maneuvering for the nomination well before the sunday morning when he called her and said he was not onna run.

And part of that was vetting of potential animates, which her team knew that couldn't wait, that had to get underway. You know, Normally takes months. So i've got a tip that, that was happening.

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I mean, that's more than vying for the job in that is measure in current you're vetting your VP canada when you're the VP.

But but because he knew as as my sources said, that he was strongly considering getting out and more than strongly considering there was a period of us of at least a week and maybe more where amongst very small circular people, the default was he's getting out and he just a matter of when and how you're call he got cove IT and that kind of delayed things a little bit.

Was that actually cove IT?

I don't know if any reason to believe IT wasn't. I know there's lots of speculation about IT, but I think IT was. So so on one track, you have him sort of starting to realize he needs to. And then you have the policy track.

And the policy track is part of why I was able to report when I to report because SHE was determined to get him out and he saw that hacking jeffries and and check summer and the donors, we're not doing enough to get him out. And so he felt he had no choice but to get him out. But again, not reported yet.

SHE didn't want to become Harris. He wanted to peer out a run, a governor, pennsylvania. So SHE intended there to be a two step process. And i'm not sure because I don't know this from her and I would take IT only from her. I'm not sure if he knew the outcome, whether he still would have been for IT, I think so.

But i'm not sure what would the remember hearing people told me the exact same thing. They that obama want a two step process. What would that have looked like?

Well, lots of people talk about a publicly right? There were people like James carvel and try to the other prominent people who talked about IT. There's others who who wanted basically either in the run up the convention or add the convention like one proposal was that obama bill clin would pick six people and that those six people could run for the nomination by giving speech and having the delegates vote. And they didn't rule that caller Harris.

But the clear kind of the salt of IT was this is a way to stop calling Harris yeah the delegates were were biden Harris delegates she's saying, come advice president, she's a black woman of color and the the campaign money could only transfer to her so those are pretty big advantages, particularly this question to deletes, right? They're biden Harris delegates where they going to a vote for somebody else in a competitive contest. So the assumption was even if you couldn't get to stand down and they knew they probably couldn't get her to stand down, who's going to run against that? Who's gone to run in somebody with all of those advantages.

And so I think part I think some people don't take efficient into a country. The clock was ticking. If you'd had a year to figure this out, maybe things would have gone differently, but they didn't have much time.

And the minute he made a clear to people, he was going forward, and he ask these other people where you run against her, none of them wants to. None of them want to. So wasn't a matter of of.

and who didn't I thought question what more wanted to?

not. Well, first of all, my sense of of the people who get talked about the half dozen, none of them are in a john adwords brack obama, George w. Bush school.

Love, I must be president. And of course, bosh was relatively ambivalent. But he he is like, yes, that's something I want.

I think if you look at the six of them now, the ambivalent about running, let one running against an incoming at vice present. I'm not sure if you offer red them the presidency, any of them would take IT like that. And some people think i'm naive about that.

Their politicians who are ambitious, think about the White house. But just from knowing them in the people around them, I don't think you could say that any of them automatic. Here's hear the keys to sixty hundred. I don't know that they would take IT. And I say that without hoping I don't stand naive if they're politicians who we have aspirations but they're all they're all relatively Young. If that someone have Younger kids, they recognize the um the downsides of how changes your life forever and none of them are um again in the bills or classic bill clinton like i'm a George town plotting how to gets the White desk, just not like that. So so I I absolutely strongly .

agree with what you just and and and i've seen that I saw Christie, I saw actually there are many of people it's a yeah .

it's a life changing that if you've got Younger kids, it's just like for some mm, it's a non starter where you've got a spouse's ambivalent. We're exactly to do. And and and if you look at the politics of the error we're in now, like a democratic president is going to be attacked every minute on social media, no matter how good a job they do, unless I can revolutionize our political culture, they're just going to have now constantly bombarded none of them that national security experience like to a big jobs.

So so in some ways, in retrospect, or is a fantasy to think anybody would run against her to say i'm going to, i'm going to tear away biden, Harris, delhi, oz. In addition, Harry, and design in a system really we're bill clinton brack obama get to pick they will ever put a premium on and he did on the domination wasn't handed to her and IT really in some ways IT wasn't SHE. SHE earned in the sense that he figured out with the worlds the game more and SHE won the game.

Yeah, I mean, if you had obama and clinton just make the decision, you have to admit publicly that IT really isn't all rect.

And so would they pick bernie Sanders? You know, he might win if they take berny?

Yeah, they face that problem twice before you.

So so I was able to figure out that he was underway, and then I was able to figure out that he was working on a withdraw plan, and then I was able to figure out that he had decided to withdraw as early as that weekend. This is on the thursday night, the final night of the republican convention. And, you know, people said, how could you risk you know, I don't work for a big legacy neural zing with the lawyers and you know, P, R. People, how could you risk reporting IT? I had a just completely nailed IT wasn't IT wasn't um IT wasn't IT wasn't IT wasn't like a tough call to report IT I reported that he was not going to endorser which when I reported IT was true um what happened after I reported that was he there were people her camp who didn't want him to endorse or because he didn't want to seem like a coordination, they were confident that you'd be the omi and they didn't want to be. The president chose the vice president, but he got a lot of heat from the minute I reported that from women close to her who felt differently about IT and some women in congress, he said IT would look horrible for you not to endorser so from the time I reported, I think because I report IT till sunday, he changed his mind and decided yes he would endorse er others as you know did not because I wanted did not create the impression that this was just A A lead you know selection of the new .

onomea how did he I still don't fully understand how he dropped out. So the media which had cheering for him, obviously, but had stopped not only stopped, started attacking. So there's that I felt that was a big deal just as an observer um but by himself was resolutely less in public but also every story you read said in private he was resolute and then I just seemed to change well.

you know it's a Normal thing is this happens gradually and then all of the site exactly. So i'm very frustrated with our business and with kind of our political media culture that that for seven years there could be this cover up of all the major how many years if you've been in this business since one thousand nine hundred and eighty seven long, long time.

we have been told for okay. yeah. So just I think this is the worst scandal .

and journalists, american journalist history, because because anyone .

knew .

what was happening, the public knew what was happening. And yet the cover up continued. And when the cover up was exploded, a cover up of the decline, he spoke to a day congress woman.

I mean, what more do we need to know? He, a congresswoman who died. You know them? Yes, OK. He speaks to a day country man and his preselected ary.

He says he spoke her because he was top of mind, because he was going to be meeting with her family. That's not forgetting somebody's name. That is of a loss of quality, which would disqualify him from being a museum docent.

much less having access .

the nucleus. So that cover up goes because some affection for biden, the bullying of the staff, but primarily because of of the desire to make sure down trump doesn't win. And then when there becomes no choice but .

to say we .

got to get rid of him now because he's a threat, the republic is trump could be them. They turn against them. They never acknowledge their participation as cocos spirits in a seven year long cover up.

And then the same people get to cover the the new candidate and and drop. It's it's staggering to me like after weapons of mass destruction, there was some all searching. After the muller investigation, there was some not more than five percent, but some acknowledged that, that perhaps the coverage was a little bit off.

There's been zero, as I see IT zero soul searching acknowledged. We we wrote story after story about how will trump me speaks to and well by, you know, the days when he's good. And there are days still to this day, the days when he's fine.

But we all have seen people in decline. They have good days and bad days. Course they shouldn't president and that's not a partisan statement that just a statement about the the rigors of the job. But but the press turned on him and then acted like they had not propped up for .

seven years in one day, in one hour, and watching my former colleagues on CNN pivot like, yeah, incredible. I was my job. I couldn't. So I was out, i'll say I was out of the country when that happened, and which made IT even weirder to watch, you know, your country from the other side of the world and wonder what is going on here. And I looked very much like a set up, very much .

like a set up. I think that because .

they also the same thing and exactly the same moment yeah.

I think that they just I don't I don't think the conspiracy is that discuss. They just all have the exact same orientation and they're. So I don't know that they have to and react the bullying the same way. So I don't know that they had to discuss that. I do know that um when I would talk to White house reporters privately for major news orange ation, they would acknowledge buying the security decline with substantial they they saw they just were in news rooms that where that was IT was impermissible .

to say and how could you .

not reply on that but no one did except for except for people from places like news max and fox, no one did. I really do. I really, I really do wonder how people look back on that because, again, theyve moved on. You know, very well. I don't know how.

Think about Better way for people don't know this stuff, know people are watching this. I mean, I should just say the obvious, which is you are not just part of the news business, but really at the center of the political news business for now.

many decade seems .

like decades because I think IT was was there. So you know, every single .

person personally, I mean, I just know well, I know a lot of them.

anyone over thirty, you know, so what do they say? I don't understand like how they could explain that you know, the presidents now, but you don't tell your views. Are readers that .

the ones who go for explanations playing their bosses, that their editors and their executive producers and their anchors didn't want to hear IT and that they would say IT. And I just didn't become part of that. The the the coverage, some of them have said that.

But again to me, the failure to acknowledge IT what what they did, I won't. It's worse than the original crime, but it's pretty bad. It's pretty bad.

And and of course, along with long fare IT helps trump extraordinary because people say sometimes in our business. So I trust american people their way ahead of us on this one. It's true. It's not just A A trope. Yeah american people, including democrats, they saw what was happening.

They saw the clips on social media and that period leading up to the debate, like when he was overseas, when the White house said, oh, this is was the word they had for a cheap fake, that these clips are are selectively edited. I say he talked to a dead congress woman. We don't need more examples.

Yes, we sure. Are there some republicans and some red people online who who choose bad examples? There are, but we do.

We don't need good or bad examples. His mental acuity decline is obvious. And so they.

everybody knew just to bottom. And everybody who covers politics in washington covers the presidency.

No, of course. How could you not? Now they might have had a different sense of how bad IT was, right. But, but, but, but I was I giving an example of the lack of accountability. Not only have they not ignored during their own role, what about the role of the people around the president who to this day say he didn't fail, he didn't decide not to run, because he had to acknowledge that his loss of mental acuity made IT unlikely he could be trump. They continue to say he didn't think he could win, or he was going to divide the democratic party, the people, the story of how they protected him. They've been some piercing of that with foreign leaders saying, you know, anonyme sly that he had this by this problem that problem you had the wall street journal piece, which is actually we t about um about mostly republicans and absurd peace yeah was a ridiculous but but I know many examples, most of which I can't describe because the terms in which they were excited with me but democratic members .

of congress knew full well and that all street journal piece know the editors of the wall street journal um just say I think they are very just honest but I know that they are but some of them but that peace was really the only piece in a big from big publication to make the point that make people talking about his body. But that piece was so water down that IT like, what was the point of even running now .

i'm surprised they spend so much time on IT, and that's what they came up with. But I can IT helps IT helped by them, because I was certain bias. Now IT hurt the democratic party, because if bite of trump's history's gona show, of course, if theyd replace them sooner with anybody, including here, as they would have had a Better chance, rather than rushing her into this, but but how there could not be, I mean, she's not been asked about if he wasn't the town hall the other day, but SHE is not explained. Her connection to this cover up kind of incredible, but her connection.

what is the truth?

I don't think he was heavily involved with IT because that wasn't her responsibility, right? SHE wasn't in charge of making sure the presence. Okay, you could R E you.

They should have been, but that rely, not the role of any vice present, let alone this one. Again, he had good days in bad days, and he good hours of the day and bad hours of the day. So I my guesses when he saw most of the time he was fine. But i'm sure if just bite love averages, i'm sure he saw when he was not.

Well, he must have known, yeah, remember when I was a kid? And going into this business and hearing people speak decisively of the White house press cord during the one thousand hundred and thirties, which covered up the fact supposedly that after year was a wheel irr, and thinking, you know, how could that? You know, I mean, that's so north korean. And that could never happen again.

I ve long been a critical, critical, the press, I think ree, to which trump has helps from fifteen onward with the press hostile is obvious. But this one really frightens me IT really frightened me that it's it's beyond, just like, you know, north korea or communist china, it's beyond that. It's the, it's the fact that it's occurring in a society with alternative media and social media and and White house breaths.

And reporters presumably want to make their bones by getting big stories. No one reported IT when I was clear they need to turn. They just turned against him. No accountability for themselves or for the people in the government who engaged in the cover up with them. I just find a frightening, not just it's fun to say it's a big media scandal and .

provocative to say.

but I find IT frightening that that could happen in this country. Now I find IT friending with all the media we have different from back when other present Kennedy, rose elt, etra Wilson. This is now, this is the age of transparency. And had he not had a bad debate, he'd still be running for president. I find a frightening.

How did he have? How did that debate happen? Well.

I had to. There are a lot of republicans who say was to set up, and there were people who knew he do badly and they made him debate to force them out. I just don't believe that based on what I know, he was on track to lose.

okay? And there was no recipe. There was no intervening ing event with that they saw could turn things around.

He was on track to lose before that debate. He had one path to win, which was to win the three great lake states in nebraska, C. D. And he was behind in pensylvania.

I don't remember her reading that story. Also, there seems like there's a lot of pressure not to report what the data show, which is, you know if a democratic canada presidents behind no one wants to report that yeah is that you .

think is true well, so if it's a democrat.

yes, i'm saying.

oh yeah he was on track to lose. He lost all seven, diagram says and he was and he was he was he was in troubled in new mexico and in um and Virginia and in minnesota not as bad troubles as he was after the debate. But before the debate, things were very great, really. Oh yeah, he had one electoral college path, and he IT was not.

not instant again. I just remember ever reading that .

it's true then not to .

make a too personal. But I should say, for those who don't remember, I always thought that you were liable demand, no idea .

what your products are.

not going to ask you if I just never even I didn't think if you was going to right active because you weren't. But I remember in two thousand sixteen when you said wrote before the election, I think trust got a pretty good short of winning and you and that was, I think just like you're announce and look.

I covered trump allies and thirty states and talk to voters across the counter that clear he could .

win and he did yeah. So you are right now, but you were attacked, you were denounced for saying that.

yeah, I think covering trumps is really hard. Covering trump s is really hard, even if you want to be fair, because he does say a lot of things that are untrue, he does break a lot of norms that at least cause reasonable people to wonder whether those are good, norms are bad and he doesn't place straight with the kind of decorum of of um of interactions with the public in the press and january six and some of the things he said publicly that are hateful and handful, okay, makes them very hard to cover but he is also hard to cover because that the most the press covers him in a way that is unfair and that the american people, not everyone, but anyone who doesn't watch M S N B C prime time knows is unfair.

It's it's right there with the law fair. It's unequal treatment that's hostile to him. So cover him really hard.

But but you should be allowed to analyze the poll numbers.

Well, of course. But also to me, it's more more good. To me, it's more it's more to appreciate that the things that people like to about him who like them in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen are legitimate things.

They they don't believe washington stands up for them, that they don't believe. They believe there's too much government regulation. They believe that there's no plan to deal with china.

Were there were serious things he talked about that the border needs to be secure. There were serious things he talked about that are, he talks about them some, often, almost always in a cartooned way. But those, those are aspirational things and worries of the american people that other politicians in both parties weren't addressin.

So you can you can realize the on a bb, you can also say, as I said in twenty eleven, which is really how I met trib, he's talking about stuff to people we have responded to virally that aren't being addressed and they're not incidental things. They're core things for tens of lions of americans. So when IT wasn't to me, when people say, how did you know he was not IT was not hard.

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But if I agree with you completely, and I also wrote a story in political making, some of these points, but I wasn't attack for IT because that was already on the outside. You were you worthy inside? And I just thought he was. The response was so interesting in two thousand and sixteen because really the demand was not that you know U B, like a democratic tisa. The demand was you just deny observable reality and that's a different thing.

So so I have great empathy for the people who support trump and who are angry that the establishment media and universities and all these liberal cultural institutions are hostile to them. I appreciate and and to see their candidate get foreign team. And that are poorly political.

But you can know some of the underlying actions were wrong, but holy political and diamonds. But I also have some athi for the people, have trumpet arrangement synergy. I get why they think this is the worst thing that could happen to america.

And I heard from democrat all the time we say dal trumping president is not the worst thing that's ever happened in my life. Politically, it's the worst thing that ever happened in my life. I I don't want put myself on a pedestal, but not I don't believe there too many people forget just journals. I don't think there are a lot of people who have empathy and understanding for both those groups. And I think that's the core chAllenge for the country right now is for all of us to try to understand both group.

But why do you I mean you from washington, N. D. C. Your father worked high levels of government. Um you're very much from that maybe from literally from that culture .

and then you spend .

most of be your life in high establish nis five I was there totally accurate ah so how do you wind up with empathy for trump voters?

Um because three things one is I covered bill klein was the first presented al candidate I covered and I went to forty six states with him and listen to people unhappy with the status quote. Not just a short term economic pain, but the long term dislocation. We've seen this surveys.

Are your kids going to add the same economic future did now? Do you do you understand your place in the world in terms of the economy? Are you confident that you'll have A A career that you like? Our social changes? That is, the society changing ways that are offensive, new york or unsettling to you? So I saw the importance of getting out of washington in new york and watching presentin candidates talk to voters and talking to voters.

And I saw some people like bill clinton and Donald trump and ronal reagan. I put those three ahead of the others, saw the mood of the country and saw that their party was not necessarily addressing everything they needed to be addressed and they did so that number one is I just understood the concept of someone speaking against the status. Q in the number two, um i've always seen liberal media bias, even one in my early in my career, Peter jennings was my mentor.

He saw IT too. He was ahead of his time. And understanding half our potential consumers or conservative.

And so you have to constantly be questioning whether your news product and your and your analysis appealing to the entire country and not just people on the upper west side of manhattan. And then lastly, um i've always A A been concerned that the. How do I explain this to like you, you you have to be honesty as journalist.

You can just go, not just not go with the upper west, washington, C. L. But you have to be constant questioning the assumptions that's that's core to to the job.

And so I do that whether politics or not. Just is are we thinking about this thread way? I covered the gaming industry for a little bit and have fascinated by IT. And I think the way we covered the gaming industry in these countries saying and IT needs to be uh, IT needs to be different. If you look at most coverage of IT, it's not so he said about what what does that mean?

I mean not to have too track, but I misted .

it's a huge business that's completely unscrutinised that are you part .

of my total ignorance because I hate all of IT. Yes, we think my .

gambling or computer, no, well, say about both. But I say about I, I say two about social media and about kids on ipad. So what I was talking about, caso S A betting gamble.

How was IT covered that you .

think is was barely covered? And it's the the the fact that it's like a aggressive you know, that IT hurts poor people, the fact that these businesses are extremely powerful and their lobbies and they rarely have rules that are delicate ious to their interest and and the fact that they create economic opportunities.

Some places uh that that has been successful, but just it's one of the biggest businesses in in the world and it's you pick up the new work times while the journal washing post to say, depress the networks. They're barely covering IT. And when they do, they're not covering to me the essence of of what it's really like. So when I covered IT, I got backlash from the people in the business, both in the journalism business covering and from the gaming industry because I was coming in and and questioning assumptions. How how, as a society, are we thinking about this?

I don't think thinking about not.

but we should be both, both the post, but also the negative their lives and destroys and the the percentage of people's householding income that they use on IT. I find IT insane. I find insane.

So I am embarrassed that I haven't again, I only get such. But since you said that out loud, i'm i'm one of the people is ignored IT.

And think about how much think about how much coverage you've ever read in the york times about the gaming industry.

I learned the other day that is really common for Young men in their twenty years. Recent college graduate, by definition, money made them uh, to spend a lot on sports camping ling.

yes, it's a huge thing. And the and the recruitment of athletes to have raise the brand identity of the individual companies. It's a massive business and just uncovered and it's it's massive.

I forget how bigger is, but huge. It's like bigger than like hollywood something combined. So it's huge.

It's huge. So again, I just always, as a journalist have said, people say trump kin win. Well, I saw speaking and see back in twenty eleven that I could win. And so just going to question.

but they did in my misremembering this you were attacked to viciously just for observing that, correct?

Not in twenty eleven. I was a two row in twenty six, oh, in twenty sixteen. Yes, yes. I was a technician saying I saw in twenty eleven 呢 as I started my relationship with crop， I saw speak to see back where, you know, mr.

Daniel and a bunch of potential presentation can book and I went on TV the next morning and and said, trump was the best speaker. They are not just because of the performance, but he got the best reaction. And you may not take him serious with the presidential candidate, but you need to take what he's running on and talking about seriously.

And I say always Donald trump is in some ways a complicated man but in some ways is simple. If you say nice things about him on television, he he likes you um so he called me up and write me over to trump t tower and I mean, he wouldn't my best friend but I talked to him about politics then pretty consistently from two thousand and eleven to twenty fifteen. And part of why I had some access to him was because when people on the networks were interviewing him and and talking about because his great box office, but democrat notion that he could, right when I would, took him seriously, incredible. And then took heat for the obvious, left when he actually.

big, big heat. no. So how would just I keep getting side track, and my apologies. But how exactly did that happen that biden went from telling the world, telling people around him and that he was gonna stay in um with the full support I think of his wife son yeah to announcing that he was .

not running again um the data was very grimm and are you able yeah and he was presented with a lot of IT but Nancy poli who as I understand that has not spoken to him since um he got out the race has we sit here today really as which he said I believe in an interview I just read um SHE knew where the pressure points were. She's extremely skillful, right SHE knew what you would take to get him to cry uncle.

And i'm not sure exactly what that included except more and more governors and members of congress saying he had to step down donors saying they would not write a single additional check, right? So if you're the incumbent president and your fundraising drives up pretty completely because he wasn't raising small dollars, right, he was reliant on big jacks, could you stand the race if leading members of your party called free to resign? Could you stand the race if um you had no money to run a campaign and and really had to lay off tons of your staff, not be able afford advertisement, not be able to fly around and do big rally? Could you stay in? He could.

But if Nancy plosser is same to you, you will have no money, you will have almost no one supporting. You're continuing on donor celebrities, members of congress, governors, you will lose and you will be blamed in history for having stayed in and lost to download p or we can celebrate you at the convention. We can say your like George washington and you can salvage your reputation. I think presented with those choices he didn't have a choice.

What was obama's .

role um to talk to polite and humor and others climbing and others about how you get him out, how you design a process to replace and the maximized the chances of the party winning and to try not to get his back up right the psycho drama between him and obama is real. I don't think IT is between him and comair s but between .

one one was my neighbor many years telling me more than once when I was vice how much they despised barack obama.

He despised barack obama. Well, what he did joe, by in twenty sixteen, a man who run for president twice, he thought IT was his birth right to then be the nominee in in sixteen to say we're going with salary clinton in the biden family that as bad as I get that this stretch as a gets so um and then in twenty twenty he didn't really support him until he had to when he was just him in berne so so obama had to worry and this is why polo sy was singular.

If I hadn't been financial policy, I don't think this would have happened. He had to not get bindings back up. Biden had to see this as as inevitable able but not um but not but minimizing the embarrassment. And so obama was very careful to not be end and like to be public anyway at this point, but he was careful to not have biden think that he was engineering IT. But he was, he was, he was strategizing about how do we put the pressure on him publicly and privately, and how do we end up with the strongest possible.

Nomi, this is not a elemental group. I've noticed. I mean, loyalty, personal affection, wrong lasting friendship, assume that even exists in that world. None of them play any role in any of this.

I think there's some affection between bill clinton and job and I am sure um so there's some there. I mean, this is high stakes politics. I don't think I don't think that Nancy policy, I don't know this from her.

So i'm speculating based on just observing her and knowing a little bit. I don't think that he took pleasure in this. I think he felt bad for him.

So in that sense, I think there was some humanity to IT. There was just a problem that had to be solved. They were trying to switch from zero chance to win to a decent chance to win. And so I I don't know that there's room for some mentality that, that would stand in the way of that.

So they call on heard to bring the dog to the that well.

they didn't really call on her. SHE stepped up because SHE saw in cliburn and and jeffries and tumor and obama and clinton, both in SHE, didn't see sufficient effort and the clock was taking.

Did you see I just I know i'm fixed on this, but I am fixed. Did you see prior to june of this year, any story in any major news outlets saying, hey, job items gonna lose.

well, my own work, yeah, OK my .

work and from the world?

I mean, no, because they couldn't. I mean, you saw stories in this before, before they agreed to debate. You saw stories that said his fundraising was a real problem.

He saw stories that said that he was having no problems in like new hampshire, Virginia and new mexico and minnesota. You saw stories saying um um uh he has some problems with over these reward. You even saw the press covering immigration like you've never covered IT before not not the way they would ever were on the other foot.

You saw the coverage of inflation. Yeah you there was the coverage part of why he had to regreted the debate was the coverage was was they turned on in to say they were trying to drive me the race except for a few commons. But yeah, the coverage of biden from february so onward was quite negative.

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What's the underlying illness that he suffers from? No idea. Why don't IT.

How crazy is that? That a nation on the cost of nuclear world, which you are to this, could have a commander in chief suffer from some illness. And nobody demands to crazy find out what .

IT is and and the fact the fact that I mean again, this goes to the press course part of the conspiracy his doctor was never made able able to answer questions .

that is that a parkinson .

specialists and although that still bit .

y but they're totally market.

But but but how how they could explain to any White has reported satisfaction why they weren't given access? The present doctor, I can understand IT just should have been an alarm bell and they should have brought the brief ing room to a halt. We d demand to talk to the present doctor, as we've talked to pass president doctors when this present spoke to a dead congresswoman. We need to access the present to .

just the way the stuff, like walking and everything, just you turn the sound off and you could .

tell that many american people know that and that's why, you know, I forget exact numbers but like seventy percent said he shouldn't be running you know like there's a reason why the the press had to say the ampera looked fantastic in his new clothes. Not no, I liked the shirt, but I don't like the pants. I had to be all in on the emo looked fantastic because they could not. They couldn't show any weakness.

I like this shirt, but not that exactly. I couldn't .

show any weakness. why? Because they couldn't do anything to be accused .

of helping trump in what is not my imagination. This is the press always, obviously been liberal, always been ciphered to democrats. But this posture of, like total denial of absolute big lie, deception, that's a new thing.

It's a new thing. It's it's covering trumps hard and and just as people on the right I say again have have are revolted by the the slanted press coverage, the law air um the unequal treatment, I think people on the left have proper grievances about the things trump has done that are again anathema to a lot of what america's stands for. They're right about that. He's hard to cover. But but the way that most of the press shows to deal with IT is to just focus on the negative trump and disregard the grievances of the other side.

But honesty just I mean, even leaving aside the ideology or how you think trump fits into american history, just like I don't know if it's raining out, you can say it's Sunny out cause .

that's lying, I agree. But but they they there, besides liberal media bias and besides just the emotional trumpet arrangement syndrome, they've decided that january eleventh and stormy Daniel and documents of malloc and his comments about immigrants are more important, are are so important that they have to cover those, the exclusion of americans being killed by people in the country illegally. That's just what they've decided.

Is there any sense from within those big media organizations that there they've committed suicide?

No, their their their cultural personal institutional orientation is towards covering the news for half the country.

That's but IT as a business. It's like they're they've destroyed themselves. That's my read on. And anyway, I work for all those.

I mean, the neuk times is created word and recipes so they haven't destroyed themselves. Um there's always gonna a demand for news and you know they all adapted like you know whether you I discuss ve adapted way too late. But there there's it's it's an industry in crisis, but some of the legacy players are finding their way towards yeah digital survive. So I don't think they're all gona disappear.

and I think that for sure. But there the weaker ones. Cbs I think I mean, cbs is like done. I think N B C C N N I don't think they have bright futures, but know what I could be wrong.

have to, have to know very late. The game adapt to digital sales and different models. Besides people paying for subscriptions, people paying for advertising or cable systems paying for carriage, you have have to find different sources of revenue and have to make products to appeal to enough audiences. That there, there's.

there's this mass there, but somebodies got to fill the assigned, the intended, all of the media, which is to inform the public about things, factual things. 嗯。

yeah, it's a crisis and not just crisis in america. Obviously, other countries have this problem, but but there is a market for news. People do want new to have IT. Yeah so so we just need whether it's legacy places to find their way or new places like what you're doing, what i'm doing that that, that say we're gonna money off of quality content that some number of people like. And we're going to find business models that work and we're not going to be welded to the old business baLance, which is just not going to support journalism.

How long you A B.

C from eighty seven to two thousand, seven long time, how many years is that's about twenty six years though it's a ninety seven, two thousand and seven.

Did you ever think that you would be part of independent media?

I never did. I mean, I loved working for a big powerful in one, the most powerful new organza in the world um and I assumed I always would and and I still think there's some value unit. I mean you and I both now do things for ourselves and with our small merry bands that before seventeen people would have been working on, we never would have had to think about IT. But it's a small Price to pay to not be freed from the the downsides of being, you know, in an institution where you can do what you think is right, you know all some of the time, at least our best, not necessarily right, but best like what .

looking back like can you give examples of things that you couldn't do that you think you should have been allowed to .

do um file more freedom information act requests even if they were going to annoy people recovered. So if somebody said what we're trying to book, that person you is a great guest. So please don't file that free to move information at request.

That happened to say few times yeah now there was another equity involved for the organization, right? They wanted a booking more than my fishing expected on a fora um but I I will say that that's that's an example I can give a few others but but I was blessed when I worked for abc, when I worked for time magazine, when I worked for a bloomberg. I was blessed with a fair amount of autonomy.

So I was never told by corporate the corporate side what to say. I was rarely told don't pursue something because that I gave an one of the examples but it's more just um you know do you know putting on A T V show at a major network like two hundred people are touching the product, right IT just hard bureaucracy to to to to be super creative. But I also producers, you know put from a production point of view quality stuff. That's a trade off. I'm not .

imagining without getting into A I this is my read. You may disagree, I think in the end you're very severely punished, firm, demanding to think for yourself um that's my view but I don't think you're the only one who was yeah I did seem like systematic cleansing of anybody in media not even IT wasn't in a left right divide IT was like I felt was a test host divide. But I was to people like, you know, I think this is right.

I'm going to pursue IT. Those people are all gone. I just have noticed.

Well, I mean, IT depends on on the category. I think people are particularly people who changed the left, I think are more acceptable to now. I mean, I Rachel mad out says stuff that's out there.

He criticizes her own network. Sometimes he pursues story. She's interesting. He has a lot of power and autonomy um and the other examples .

create i've always I disagree with everything Rachel mao says, but I have always admired data about but .

she's she's kind of the exception there others but she's one of the exception that proves the rule most most people don't want to to cross the orthodoxy or or their corporate bosses and and in that sense, they're not so different than you know working for j Morgan chase are working for boeing like there's not a lot of of stepping at a line. The difference is the course to state the obvious that were in the journalist in a business of truth telling and chAllenging powerful interest and holding powerful interest accountable to the public interest. And sometimes that has to be, you know, either your own employer or sometimes it's liberal .

democrat gotto be that way though, it's inherent. That's why we have first man protection like the system is set up with a free press at the really at the center of the enterprise of my opinion. So where where are we five years, ten years from now?

Those things can be more joking around in this episode, interested episode of your program, ever splay paper football or some to shake up the mood. I mean, i'm a big believer in finding consumers who want quality and that that can happen independent of of ideology. You know, my new platform that we have not start to make ton of money yet.

But but IT explicitly tries to appeal to people, not just center models and independence, but people on the left, on the right. And i'm hoping that there is a market for that that is different than the conventional wisdom is. The only way to make money is to go hard.

Left, of course, right be the york times um but how does that work?

Uh we bring uh people on who are willing to talk about the country in a way it's not position of personal destruction. I would say our model is peace, love and understanding. And then we opened IT up to citizens from across the country, and so far, organically, democrats, republicans, trump supporters, trump enemies all come on, and they all talk, and they supposed to talk in a way that is respectful. And if somebody's disagreeing with you, I say, learn from them rather than say, this platform to pro chop, well, is your opportunity here from pro trun people or this this platform to pro haris, listen to them talk and that IT almost doesn't exist in america. IT, what's the .

business model for that?

Um I well, it's a platform. It's not just bad politics. It's eventually we're going expand to sports and music and write writers. It's called two week.

All communication, almost all communication is one way right? It's you talking or writing a sub stack or writing a book or cable news. We bring people together with the people they want to hear from.

And so if if you get the best parenting experts in the world, or nf quarterbacks s or great musicians, that people are superfans of sponsorships payments, superfan payments. To that are higher than what they pay for a Normal access through live video. And then eventually the ability to be the place to people comfort for two way conversations.

But in politics, that has the additional element of all voices under one roof. And I have so hard when people say, liberals will say, I understand why people are for trump more than I ever have. The other day we had on a just by quinsan ce, we didn't book on two Young black man, both live in manhattan or live in new york city. Both of him explained extraordinary ily, well, why they for trump and why they don't like the democratic party and and they were listened to respectful ly, and the liberals could ask some questions that didn't exist anywhere. IT doesn't.

I got to say that's consistent when in my personal experience of black men specifically, not that i'm a black man all time, but actually fairly regularly you don't know that many black men who republicans, but I know zero black men who are liberals. One yeah is that that seems like a trend if the if the .

anecdotal is even close to true, trump break the record among support from black men. I know mill smash IT. If the anionic close to true, it's just it's all over social media.

It's all over my platform. It's all over every story I hear. And part of IT, you know, keep i'll give you a couple of of elements of this. I think important part of IT is trump has always had a peal with kind of a marcha rich, pretty wife.

But it's also this is example of bias coverages, the press says when trump says some Young black man identify with them and their parents because he's been persecuted, the press says that's racist. My experience is just true. They get the fact that that that the legal system comes after people unfairly.

If IT can happen to drop, IT can happen to them and IT has happen to them and their family and their communities. And then lastly, they the the failure of liberals to make life in cities for poor kids Better is also a massive scandal. Another scandal is that the republican party has done anything to capitalize on great competition.

To be mayors of these cities are sure, but but when trump says i'm for criminal justice reform and on for fixing schools and i'm for creating working on the opportunity, he did criminal justice reform the other stuff, you know his record, his body. But but he saying, as he said in twenty sixteen, when people want them, what do you you have to lose. These Young black men say, the democrat party offers nothing to me.

Trust might offer something to me. And he done criminal justice reform. I think, I think, again, you you can be the most partisan democrat in the world if youth can defend the performance of the democrat party to helping Young black man. Good luck.

But I I agree with everything that you said. But what's interesting is the black voters, including black men, are not just like part of the democratic coalition. They're the basis of the party's moral authority.

After what? After black women, their number two.

in terms of the Green support, in terms of the story that democrat tell themselves about why they're right and why they're Better than their opponents. It's all about black people. We've say black people. And so how do they like what's IT like if you are a democratic party, if you're run clean and you also know the black eyes again, against you and for trump, that must be mind blowing.

Well, of all the sort of a kenyan, the coal mine, of those who believe some of my sources in both parties do that, Harris is about to lose. And maybe somewhat decisively, she's spending three days, maybe four days, at the end of the campaign, spending the majority of time coding. Black man, that's that's mind blowing.

So what do they say? They say their little bit denial, ed, about the causes of IT, but they, but they're not denied about how big a problem is. Again, when have you seen a democratic presidential candidate with twenty days to go, spending her time day after day recording black men?

But is just weird because the one thing that everyone on planet earth knew about Donald trump was that he was a racist. That's the one, I mean, that line, I mean, that was the summary of trump.

So I had, I had a black woman whose whose lives in new york also, who came on my play from today. And when SHE was confronted, I connected her to an older black gentleman who's a haris supporter.

And he said, how can you support the man who let the birthday movement? How can you support the man who denied knowing who David duke was? And SHE said, have a joe biden he's of that generation to hang in iran with DRAM thermit supporting the crime bill know her view was joe bynes got a racist past two. I'm not going to decide who to vote for based on allegations about you .

a bigger racist. It's just the interesting of all the candidates in the history of american politics for Donald trump yeah, to increase the share of the .

black vote in and the spending vote will .

big time in that way and again.

the liberal press would say, how could a panic support the guy who's but then so racist and his redux about the border and of course, as you know, we're talking about people who have came here illegally and don't like to be lumped in with people um who who who support more open border .

and a even people came here illegally and benefit illegal who kept benefit from the eighty .

nesty for exam correct and also people who think bacon costs too much. Yeah good. Ah amazing.

So why did you set at the outset that .

everyone's .

telling us this is going to be an extraordinary close election? You don't believe that .

what might be I I think it's not a gun conclusion. I seven battleground states, six or maybe all seven could go to one candidate to could in other is if one of them wins the seven states or six or seven nearly by our recent standards, that would be an electoral college landslide. And I think that could happen.

I think whatever dynamics exist will will be some variation state to state. But if trump on all seven, I wouldn't be surprised. If he went all seven, I wouldn't be surprised. And if that happens, it's not gonna .

be close was talking to a member of congress um just a few hours ago who said i'm totally convinced this election will not be called within a week of election day will not be not be yeah I mean.

if it's closed happy it'll be litigation and we'll be you know all the Normal second guessing. Our elections are decentralized and really messy. And although there were efforts to fix that after two thousand, it's just the american way.

And in some of these states, I in pennsylvania, the state gives incredible difference, the counties to figure out how they want to run things. It's a commonwealth. yeah. And I think I think there's a real equal protection questions. We saw that and floor in two thousand, like is IT fair that one conney compared to another county or the state of floor to compared to the other states that they count differently. It's it's a great it's got political implications that are messy, but it's a great set tent amendment question.

In what sense do they account differently you know.

when you can start counting different types of ballots and what the rules are for accepting ballots that have areas in them? You know, like if one country, he says, well, they said twenty twenty three, but they met twenty twenty four, we're going to account back because we know who cares what the outside addresses like one kind account set in the other dozen.

Is that fair to the voters in our that who protection um and and even if the rules aren't differences as a matter of course, say while this county they stopped counting at midnight because the election supervisor said we have too many votes to count, we're going to go home and in this county they kept counting and so now is there some chain of custody question in the county where where the people went home and so they'll come back in the nine o'clock. We just don't have uniform rubs. That is the way amErica IT is.

So I mean, I would say my base case, unlike everybody else, is my base cases will know by the next day because I think more likely than that, I won't be close. But if your person's right a week would be delightful. If this was only a week could be significantly longer because once litigation starts, IT never stops.

At this time, the democrats are always lord of histories licence in twenty twenty, the bush campaign said, we're only gonna floria and i'm starting two thousand. They are only going to do florida. We think there's stuff in new mexico.

We could do. There's stuff in a few other states, he said, no, we're just in the door. The gore people went along with that.

That won't happen this time. All seven states will be relatives. If if the capped .

those states are the .

recap the states, there's a three great lake states, michigan, pensylvania and with constant. And then the four sung belt states, georgia, north CarOlina, arizona and the state reality, this is that I can't pronounce correctly.

so I never do. It's nevada like lad and it's neva and in the last, say, thirty years and group going to nava and with a house in nova and everyone called IT that and now they will yellow you for calling they renny ed IT.

I have a mental block about IT I say wrong every time even though I think i'm said there so judge about they're very judged. That's why I don't even resting. I called the silver or the state were last the very real stay real t IT. Reno in the north. So excited to .

get your view of where the race is and let you start with nevada.

Yeah um it's the hardest one. Um uh the trump people think they are going to win and a democrat think they are going to win. Uh abortion unions, the ghost of read, which they still cite.

So I would say there's consensus amongst my sources that of the seven states it's it's some it's Harris's best. But I wouldn't be surprised if trump wanted economies horrible inflations been horrible, housing horrible he's got, of course, of presence in Clark county lot of rural vote. So um it's our best to the seven .

he's taken.

Alcoa we know that yes.

alcoa is. But the change in your court court is very, very heavily his panic now and the change in voting patterns of his panic voters, or least what we think is the change that kind of what they're banking on.

They are um and and their banking on the economy. Um and she's not um she's she's a western, right but people they are don't like californians. Typically, there's good reason. Yeah so again, I think it's right that it's is least likely of the seven. But the reasons to think he could win IT and um you know the biggest thing he has gone for is probably is the unions and and whether that's that's a union and a location where the gap between the leadership in the ranking file is smaller. The reason to believe that jill now shall do well.

unite here and yeah the big caso.

So I would say again, her best state. But but the state trump can still win.

Okay, let's more in mexico.

No arizon. New mexico is blue. Arizona is probably trumps best of the seven um if there's a state show, give up on and I don't think he walk because he is got so much money. There's only seven .

and um relatives so originally a uh her money advantage .

uh the democrats money advantage early on when trump is having trouble raising money was significant. Then they had a money advantage but not dispositive.

It's now potentially dispositive um not so much for the ads, although that matters too but for organizing SHE has raised a billion dollars and since he got in the race, that's extraordinary and that doesn't include like the outside money that's not directly raised a billion dollars since got on the race. She's raised more for her campaign and for the party committees that he controls. The trump has raised the whole campaign.

So you know typically when you're out raise is trump in in sixteen, they have enough to win. They they won't as much money, but they have enough to win. IT, maybe he doesn't, i'm not saying for sure, but her financial advantage over last three weeks is considerable.

Where is the money coming from?

Ug, grass roots and rich people. One of the biggest mysteries in politics for the last twenty years has been democrats capacity to raise big money online compared to republicans. Jamie Harrison, who's now sure the democratic party ran against linsey gram in south CarOlina.

No chance to win. Not a particularly good candidate, nice guy, but not, you know, not some somebody. People thought how give money because i'll be presented someday.

He raised like a hundred and ten million dollars that's more than marco rubio who should be a good web foundation, ies or social media furies or race when he ran for president. They just are great at raising money from small dollar downs. Part of IT was they started earlier with the thing act blue, but IT doesn't explain IT. And I talk people at all the time. I can explain IT, but that's a big part of why trumps being at region if they hadn't keep and dating and A B than more desperate and then there's people writing big checks.

But if they hadn't kept in dating him, he wouldn't embraced .

as much money truck a lot of his online money in the wake of illegal stuff like literally on the days of indictments, the days of bookings, court dates. That was a great equalizer for him to raise more money. But but he's badly I raised uh but again, I don't think it's dispositive. IT might be IT might be deposited, but I don't think IT will be. I think trump has just enough.

and the democratic party has rich people.

So as a republican party, the big disparity is not the rich people. The big disparity is the small dollars. There's some disparately, right? There's three kinds of money there. There's small dollars social media online. There's bunglers of people writing checks of you know thirty nine hundred whatever is now and then there's people writing super pack checks for you know ten million or you know like um truth trump is is is to doing is is I think being out raised in all three categories is my guess. But I think the biggest discrepancy is the one that's the most valuable, which is the low dollars because it's people can continue you to give to you.

And for that money, the Harris campaign gets what?

More TV ads, more digital ads, more field organizers, more offices, more get out the vote Operations, more of long signs, i've more long signs and and more so you travel, you know, just more of all the stuff you can spend money on.

And and again, no one's criticizing their Operation in terms they're going about turning people voting early, voting by mae and then election day getting people to post there their team LED by the woman who's running the campaign, gentle male dEllen who's an organizer by by trade there, there that's an advantage. Shown others is more money spent wisely. So a big advantage.

So you think trump probably does have an advances in arizona?

yes. Is as best just as as the silver status are best to the seven. My sources agree that I was on as the best, his best to the seven.

right? Let's move .

this georgia. Um it's a, it's a it's a tougher one. Um he's trump is ahead trump his favorite. I think if georgia will will be would be that the fifth or six states SHE won if she's if she's doing really well. Another is if he wins, George a IT mean she's gona win all the great lake states and probably um uh the silver state as well. Um so it's it's probably trumps third best of them probably and uh and i'd making in the favourite there and my democrat sources today with making the favorite there as well.

Okay, there is a reality of democratic politics in in southern states, which is if you can increase the the percentage of the vote that comes from black vote, which is not called the contribution to the vote, so what percentage of the number of people vote black and you can and you can get her numbers back up to where democrats typically are too big gives is so when um but trump is is doing well with the Young black man there and know the Normal way he wins states running up in excerpts in rural areas all of the seven states have a pro choice energy in the two western says ors ballot measures that will help there. There aren't in the five others but georgia know the land of metro areas. Very pro choice. Love suburban women so some combination of of her swelling black about holding on with black boat and suburban voters, particularly women, he could win IT. But trump is the favorite there.

Okay, so we've named three sofa .

CarOlina um it's funny the vice present herself, i'm told. And lot of rates have been very bullish on north CarOlina, the linchpin for replacing pennsylvania if if they lose. I have one republican source I trust immensely regarding with thalia, who says, no way, trump's ses IT.

So the storm is a variable. No, I no way to know who that helps her. Heard the governor races a bit of a variable, but my source is, now I trust the ones you say trump is likely to win north CarOlina, but vice presence put a ton of time in there. And I think you'll continue to because they need a hedge against losing pencil vania. Now puzzlin, he has more electoral vote.

So if it's just a swap, if trump wins the three sun belt states in pensylvania and SHE wins, north CarOlina at was consent and michigan SHE loses, so so if he if he wins missions and was consort and north CarOlina iner but loses a penciling, SHE needs to one of the other three thousand states, but north CarOlina is the largest, the same historicist same number. But that's kind of linchpin for them. So that's the biggest mystery.

They're very democracy. Y bullsh on IT. Republicans believe that it'll be trumps in the end.

interesting. no. What about .

washin's in um was was considered her best of the seven until he started to slip there in last couple weeks. And it's always been a close state. Uh, trumpet is convention there a lot of rural vote there.

Um a lot of the social issues cut for trump there. Less pro choice state than some of the other. So I would say if you take the combination of my sources is a slight favorite to Harris, but if trumps running, running the rest the table.

i'll win with concern. I think the whole point of tim walls was to sure up supported a place like was constant .

and running may really don't make IT before I D T. As long as you pick someone who the public says is ready to be president, it's really very martial.

That leaves michigan.

michigan. So IT is a little but have across current there because it's it's kind of the bluest of the of the seven states. But she's got problem with labor SHE got promise black man, got problem with union, with air american and muslim american voters.

And she's not gone there until recently, just the last couple days, and done the things that the locals, their demand, like the local democrats say you have to go to union holes, you have to be doing, you know, black barber shops. You have to be figuring out how to make peace with the arab american and muslim american so she's done those things the last few days um I would say, um uh it's a must win for her. It's not a must win for truth. But uh, I make IT this point just like this concert .

of mild favorite and finally .

pens ah so IT is said pena winner pennsylania will win .

by everyone.

It's almost certainly true. I'm onna do a two hour show called its all a bad pensylvania because it's sort of this now I say trump can win without pennsylvania and he can win without pennsylania and it's not far fetched. They both have reasonable path without IT so people shouldn't say it's all about IT but certainly the winner pencil ling is as a matter of demographics and electoral college math is in the driver seat.

The other person has has kind of has to circumvent conventional wisdom about where these states are to make up for the loss of pennsylvania. And trump is ahead and he's been ahead for a while now, ahead within the margin of error. But if you're consistently ahead, even within in the march, you know no one thing says states going to be one by seven points.

So she's got demographic problems there. Changing her position on fracking was absolutely sensual, whether people believed or not. SHE couldn't have won being against france. It's not as big a deal throughout the state as people think, but in the party of the state is a very big deal.

So I may trump the favorite there as as do most of my democratic forces, but she's spending an unprecedented count of money should continue to work IT there um has a democratic governor, has two democratic senators. It's more of a blue state in terms of statewide office in a red stayed trump wanted once and lost at once but he's showing strength there with White working class voters, with older voters, with black men, with the espana s suburbs around the philly. So um it's and that's and that's a place because biden was born in pennsylvania so associated with IT. That's a place where trading out biden for herri was probably a downpour de for them that there are, at least on paper, had a Better chance than .

he does of course, the loyal son of yeah they've .

also not been a super uh, big state about electing women to state White office compared to some other states for whenever reason. And she's a california liberal. You know, one of the things I don't think we've discussed in our brief talks of her is she's really liberal, right SHE really liberal SHE culturally liberal is economically liberal.

And she's not done oster soldier. She's not fleshed out a portrait of who he is, except for saying she's a capitalist in a way that has resonated with a law. These undecided about us and you see that in pensylvania as much as anywhere else, they just they see her for what is and that's not really what pensylvania is. Their governor is a pretty moderate democrat.

And as we did say the outset, you said he hasn't really made i'm come on, Harris and i'm from salon cisco by way of montreal. I'm going to make some effort to convince people why not as liberals they think I am SHE doesn't .

hasn't done a ton of that. Well, she's she's done small things on the margins and not not put them in sharp relief so that everybody would hear them because again, she's she's she's cautious and and and indecisive. So SHE surely hasn't and it's it's time short and and of course anything he does now will be seen by some voters as cry of course you know um what's the .

spread between the publicly available polls and the so called internal polling in the campaigns? Like how different .

of those number ers depends on which apple which comparing. But I would say it's just like I got back at the end of love super thing trump like, know two pots stronger. And allows the private polls, not every step in some of the states in the public house.

What accounts for that?

The public polls are done on the cheap. And of all the ways newsrooms rooms have cut back, pulled, the polling budget take a bit right. So a pole is only good if likely voters, if you know who a likely voter is, right? And the simplest explanation is, if you say, I want my pole to have forty percent democrats, okay, because that's what I think the elector, it's gonna.

So I think a pole that's good that has live likely voters, forty percent of my respondents are going to be democrats. So which democrats are going to filled the slots because you you're under pressure to finish the poll as quickly possible. You want four hundred responses. The longer takes, the more money at cost because you're paying for the call center to continue to make calls. So the democrats are most likely to fill the slot or Better educated democrats who are more likely to pick up a phone or answer an online survey and say, i'm a democrat and participating.

Those wealthy democrats are Better educated democrats because those are the particularly Better educated are the are, is, is that is the weight is a single trait by which you can most easily tell there, a Harris voter or a trumpet voter, they are going to failed this lots. So you say, okay, forty percent or democrats. So I I ve got over representing democrats.

You are representing democrats are more likely vote for areas then democrats are likely about for truck. And that single variable is that is going to my sources, probably the main reason, while the private polling, which is more expensively done and wants and needs an accurate polls, something know how to make decisions about the campaign compared the public polls, which just want to get the poll done so they can publish IT for publicity. They're not looking to be accurate. They're looking to get IT done as deeply as possible.

It's more expensive to do. Private polls come Harrises, as you said, raised over a billion dollars. I asked for that money when I should have pointed out to the consultation. I have noticed just having no consultation for thirty years, a richer than we've ever been. And i'm not sure the public understands just .

how rich some think is there a richer they've have been?

Yeah yeah i'll tell you one.

someone.

they are not flying.

Yeah and more so a lot of I think a lot of the change, and I don't know, like dollar per dollar, like they making forty seven cents on the dollar compared to before. But I can take the bush campaign really changed the culture that way in one in one very fundamental way. The people who make the ads used to get what was called the percentage of the right and and that was ridiculous.

2 person， so bush negotiated them down to like one percent or some. yeah. He also said, no, salaries are going to be controlled. Then when john pedestal was chair of hiller's campaign in twenty sixteen, he said, if you're one of the many people traveling between dc and new york, you're going to take the bus for twelve box is opposed to the training of the plane again.

That was a very big kind of cultural thing of we're just not going to waste the campaign's money on either spending our salary. So my senses and consults don't make what they used to particularly add virus. But my senses, even pulsars, don't make what they used to.

But they do they do make a lot polls, which is why they're Better. They just it's a quality. It's not a quantity difference, a quality of difference to say we need accurate polls so we know how to make decisions about this race.

So a billion dollars get dumped into one just one side of one race in the final months. And no one's getting rich of to getting rich.

I don't think the consultants themselves are making as much as the issue that my impression interesting. The consultation ee covered early. My career were like millionaire who had like their own planes and Operation. Has has most of them earn, if you are, but most of now they they just kind of change the culture of how much consolers get paid.

What do you make of an at, you know, our age? Is that bewildering to you to see the the shuffling of the parties you know dick change and his daughter now campaigning for hairs indorse terrorists now and then you see a bunch people you thought, you know bobbi Kennedy .

right um campaign trump but .

what do you make of that?

Well, i'll probably anger some viewers here by saying I don't think you can attribute what the chinese did to anything but their belief in the unfitness of Donald trump to be president and and and growing somewhat from january six. I don't think the chinese are gonna rich off I T. jobs.

I don't think I I think it's possible this would take them, but I don't think she's doing for that at all. I don't think they hate Donald trump for some past great personal. I've really do believe that they think what genre six and related things and chAllenging the election say about trumps character make him unfit for the job. And they're willing to support someone whose position on issues they fine to be know socialist or worse.

So I mean, I know them. And my take is that what they care about is not january six. They care about war and the foreign policy stuff.

I don't I disagree. I think I think that matters to them in terms of of ukraine and and we haven't talked about the forever worse at something you and ici to iron and and I think another huge blindspot of the dominant media is is is the is the america's bipartisan from bernie Sanders to gentle trap distained for the forever s and I know the chinese disagree with that point of view, but I don't think that's with motivating them here. I I think I think they they um and again, this won't be popular with everyone watching us, but they think that the trump makes the planet less safe by not being supportive of ukraine and and not a chAllenging putin as aggressively as I definitely think yeah but I don't think that I don't think think I don't think that the the um the characteristic of them as warm mongers or lovers of the military industrial complex, I just think they have a different point of view about how to keep the .

planet in the country safe well, they certain I mean, I think both are true.

Well, both are true, meaning they care about january six and they care about words.

I think it's overwhelmed war. I think that in their minds, they are keeping you. An international order has been very effective, intact.

And Donald trump chAllenges at order. And that chAllenges, in their opinion, like A A massive threat to the world. Well, and I think that's sincere.

They think well, but I also think they were Marks. Well, there was like, I think they think they have high motives. They may be high motives, but I also think that you know the root of their power is is planning war.

Like that's what makes agree with you on the border of objection. I disagree you about that being for laz at least whatever what's epa subordinate over january six? I think january six really matters to her a lot.

I just do in terms of terrorizing them as war mongers. I I just don't agree if I understand the term. I I don't think they love war. I don't think they I don't think they profit from military industrial complex. I don't think they are on the boards of defense .

contractors or I agree, much cheaper than are.

They have a very different conception and Donald trump and a lot of the american people about how to keep us safe. Their view of how to keep us safe is to get us and dandles worse.

Yeah I completely no no I completely agree with you. But um and I never thought I thought all the haliburton stuff was absurd. I and also a shallow analysis because I think think it's actually .

much worse .

than that.

What's well, I mean I think it's worse in the sense that that um they take their intellect and their world view and they lock us into the loss of american lives and cost and heard our reputation around the world exactly the opposite of what they think. But I don't question their intensity chinese, I don't question their belief, uh, it's not connected the self interest .

I completely agree. The reason i'm saying is worse is because IT derives not from greed, but from hubris. And I think that's much scarier than greed.

And in other words, if you think you have powers that no human possesses, for example, the power to foreseen the consequences of a big decision that you make, yeah, you know, a rational person by rational, I mean someone informed by humility, which is a realistic understanding of limit, is power. You do something big like invade a country. And an honest person says, i'm no freaking idea, really, what happens next.

And the chinese, because they are like everyone dc, by partisan, seized with this crazy tube, is like, no, I know exactly what can happen. This will start a domino effect where democracy takes root in the middle. Ast, and like that, insatiable.

The fact is we do know it's going to happen if we look at history and badly, we do know the only thing I don't like about when you say war mongers is to me, war monger means somebody who realists sending the U. S. To war. And maybe profits from IT or does IT because they're insufficiently concerned about the welfare .

of the country. No, no, no, i'm say i'm saying something different that which is someone who believes that the most important thing he does and I think ninety percent of republicans feel this way, for example, um is sort of managed the world and is convinced that he's doing a good job and this is like a high court and he understands again consequences which no human can proceed so that's deeply offensive to me because I think it's like stupid and corrupt on the most basics level. You don't understand the limits of of human forever said and that's a master problem yes.

And again, history makes. Clear, and I furious tes me, when people say trump hates nato. Trump wants to destroy nato.

He doesn't. He wants to reform IT. So that is fair to american taxpayer. S, and that its mission matches up with our security.

Me, I totally agree. I, by contrast, do hate nato and like to destroy IT. So I am the radical trump is totally moderate yeah.

on this day with you, I mean, I would only want to keep IT if they were really reformed. But I think there's A I think there is .

still purpose for IT there could be but man, as IT hurt the country said, participate, in my opinion, to eliminate their sovereign and foreign roofs on your soil like that's a big thing yeah.

The problem is they just don't have there. There is the best arrangement for maximizing our safety even even with all the flaws. If if we were reformed, IT would be IT would be IT would be even flawed. It's probably still the best arrangement. But if we were reformed.

I think it's clearly would be well, europe is western. Europe is done. Its economy is in in shambles.

but it's not going away rapping.

So to the .

martians, I dutch and are going .

to be there. You know, if someone has his part to finished that IT hurts me even to hear the word finished. Because I just think that was a country that has sovereignty that earned IT by beating in a one of the world's great powers in an actual battle, the winner war in one thousand nine hundred and forty. And they just gave IT up tannadice and they're going to be just really suffer as a result.

Yes, but I mean, what would the world be Better if they all had their own robust armies?

No, I mean.

but I I and air force.

and you could easily envision, like regional CoOperation between, say, the four hundred countries.

or each wise, but wise, that Better than A A, A kind and wide a force to deal with the realities, which is russia in china are going .

to threaten us for life, but is not a wide actually. It's there's just an of a far away empire that doesn't have any of their interesting and you know at hard and and and also IT IT degrades the spirit of a country to have foreign country on il.

With that me you look at england and like why why is IT collapsing so fast? And I think a lot of that is and I don't think anyone in meant to do this actually, I think a lot of the worst things that happen to your very wise and true point about the chinese, I think they think they're doing the right thing. And I think the people who ministry the E U.

Think they are doing the right thing. I think your average ao commander or things is doing the right thing. But the effect of having foreign roofs on your soil for eight years is to eliminate any pride in your country.

I I agree. I think you see that, jack, japan's by the country and no basis, and america's trip presence is just deleterious .

to their feeling like the country .

that I agree but but again, there are threats in the world that are serious or short that amErica cannot as easily deal deal with a deterrence and spying and uh and a action if necessary if we don't have north korea, australia, south korea, australia, japan and nato countries uh with some degree of military CoOperation yeah I just think it's it's just it's just a reality of of real estate and how long IT takes to get places you know we cannot defend and deter from the connel united states, just not gonna en to the same degree that is necessary to deal with east and russia and china and north korea yeah you know they they just a requirement geographically need to be there. But I agree with the interview.

but it's hard. It's really is kind of like one thousands by proxy. It's like we were killing .

the people we claim to love more for. If more of IT was there, I think that would be less infantilizing and IT would be theyll be more for partners are supposed to be under the american umbrella. Part of the chAllenges also the nuclear weapons, right? We don't want these other countries have not exactly. And if we're not partners with the japanese and and and south korea, s in the europeans, they're gonna nuclear web.

Well, in japan are especially because japan, I think people that sounds like you, I can go no to the area. But with the one thing i'm not no expert in asia, but having spent time there, the one thing i'm always shocked by is how totally freaked up by japan. Every other country is, particularly china. Yes.

the south korea to there for sure you .

don't think of japan is a martial. Paris is not. Twenty wasn't .

and that's and that's again, there's downsides to our religious people now can now hate the united states answers for our military presence. But the upside is we have we have effectively restrain them and allow them become part of the community of nations and develop our relationship with south korea. That's stronger now when the things but has done successfully important, Polly, it's stronger now that it's been sent into the war in part because they do not have a military that's threats to these .

other countries. Yeah, the japanese are so elaborately nice, they are such wonderful people. It's hard to imagine what they .

were not that it's amazing to turn in one generation. And I mean, if anything, they could use a little bit more of the fiercely I am and they in the current generation, but they've been turned into just completely defended in a way that I think is heard the society, but had to be done to some extent because the the spectre of the end of the war and the strong feelings, as you said, in china's south korea, wow, to this day really a really john is japanese bob Kennedy predicting or explaining? Bobby Kennedy is like predicting, explaining come jing on I mean, he's just a he's a material man at bobbie Kennedy.

Why is he for trump? I think he's anti and he believes that the the current uh military situation, uh food safety um a foreign wars, all of that is is requires profound change. And so I think there's some really stronger ideological ties to trump.

I think he also angry the democratic party for keeping him from being to run for the nomination fairly and for attacking him personally. So I think that's part of the too and I think trump offered him the Better deal for what I would mean to to endorse. But but I think it's a mistake to just say he's a coucou who wanted up a bay role.

I think food safety, foreign wars, military industrial complex, yeah all that is if he were if he were fifty twenty years Younger, had a Normal voice and stayed on message, I think he would have been a formidable, formidable his announcement speech was on the best and most important speeches the last five years by any politician. But he simply doesn't have the discipline to do this. And and in that sense, he's a great campaign. Prada tal truck to also lacks the discipline to say, focused on the core issues that have a man spill across party lines, not just a friend .

so he told me um I think a lot of them think your analysis is fair, but he told me that the democratic party didn't even consider talking to him. Um and you know clearly he's got a real constituency, an energetic man and he's got a lot going for him despite you know the deficits. And so like why wouldn't you make a good faith effort to bring him over to the .

party that he grew up? And I don't understand that. I think that .

I M after he he got out dering, we knew that was gonna happen to like why would the common of people try for him?

They just decided to not elevate him by treating him like a serious person decision. They made a just random as a cook. Um i'd love to see a para university. Biden hadn't run and he had run for the democrat nomination. I would be curious to see how he would have done um but they just decided when he was running for the nomination to destroy him and he made IT easy through his past and his present but having done that, I think they just felt they couldn't something change and decision was .

a good guy IT IT. IT does seem like in berny standards obviously felt that's very personally twice but IT seems like the real sin in the democratic party is trying to bring any kind of change yeah being .

the establishment being populist um you know bernie had had berne played under fair rules I think he would have been the only at least one of the two times but um that you know that's politics and whether you ve got an incumbent like dubai nor quasi incumbent like glary clinton um you know the party establishments gone to do what he does and pretend p that would have happened as well in the republican party .

so okay which I got two more big questions for you. Um purse should have asked you earlier who is running the country right now, do you .

know um yeah joe biden and what has chief of staff and senior advisers the present and definite tony blinking and jack Sullivan. Um if you manage show by this time, if you recognize when he's up to IT and when he's not, he can still make a lot of decisions and I believe does. So I don't think there's any barack obama or all these things back, ally Better, but the way has chief of staff has to manage that. And then there's a few very close personal aides. The president aren't famous people, but they they help figure out when the into this and and minimize the prospect that a big decision will be need to be made at a time when he's not equip to make IT. It's not a great situation but but IT is IT is as evidence the fact that that you know the number of times he's displayed uh object in ability is probably twenty five times for this object given the circumstances that reality of these more its testament to not just the fierce and and so the conspiracy but the the degree to which is well managed you know have to have to understand under the circumstances if they're not going to be an invoking the twenty to demand, if he's not going to resign, we have to be grateful that it's well managed.

Let's say trump wins um three weeks from today. What happens if the democratic ties mean? As you said, um a lot of democrats, maybe the majority believe that trump becoming president and is the worst ever could happen.

I say this not flippantly. I think I will be the cause of the greatest mental health crisis in the history of the country. I don't.

I think tens of minds of people will question their connection to the the nation, their connection to other human beings, their connection to their vision of what their future for them and their children could be like. And I think that will be require an enormous amount of access to mental health professionals. I think you'll lead to a trauma in the workplace.

I think they'll be some degree of three being hundred percent series, hundred percent series. It'll be alcoholism, it'll be broken marriages. They'll be yeah they they think he's the worst person possible to be present.

And having won by the hand of jim coming in flu in twenty sixteen and then performed an office for four years and denied who won the election last time in january six, the fact that under a fair election, amErica shows by the rules reagent to downal trump again, I think I will cause the biggest male health crisis in the history of america. And I don't think that will be kind of a passing thing that by the inauguration will be fine. I think you will be sustained, an unprecedented initials, and I don't think the country's .

ready for IT. So mental health crises often manifest in violence.

Yeah, I think it'll be some violence. I think they'll be they'll be workplace flights. I'll be fights at birthday with kids birthday parties ah. I think they'll be protest that will turn violent.

I hope they are not but I think there will be some but I I think IT will be more it'll be less anger and more um A A failure to understand how IT could happen. You know like like like the death of a child or your spouse announcing that that that you your wife anounced she's a and she's leaving you for your best friend. Like like like something that's that's so traumatic that IT is impossible for even the most mentally healthy person to truly uh process and incorporate into their daily life. Hope i'm wrong, but but I think I think that it's going to happen for tens of million of people because they they think that that that that their fellow citizens supporting trump is a sign of fundamental evil at the heart of their fellow citizens and of the nation. That's how they do IT.

Well, that's very heavy. yeah. So that's .

one thing. I think what happened? And then I hope the trump handles IT well. I hope that he recognizes his, both his responsibility in his self interest and that he chooses, in his words, and he is A A cabinet and White house appointments, nominations and in his initial legislative agenda. I hope PC a confluence of interest between minimizing that mental health crisis and the success of presidency. And I think he might, I bullishness on him seeing the alignment .

of those two things wow um and if he loses, what happens?

Um well, it'll depend on how he loses this. It'll depend on if it's close and if he and his supporters see wrongdoing in casting accounting baLance in the seven states, it's very difficult to for me to imagine her winning by enough that, that doesn't happen. I've been disappointed in the efforts in the states.

There are some in every one of the seven, but they're not mature enough to prepare, to explain to people. Elections are messy, but this one wasn't stolen. Our electoral votes were awarded correctly to come. Alice, I think if that somehow goes well and if final trump himself doesn't chAllenge your response, twitter can do what IT wants to do.

I think um I think that um the the negative impact of her winning on the psychology of of the losers will not be as great, but I don't think it'll be been nothing and I think they'll be all sorts of things. Love air. We're placing biden with her after, you know trumped spent millions trying to beat biden. Um uh um the um the media completely there for body on the scale. I think all those things will lead to mass kept ism that the election was fair and I think it'll be up to luck that that the result is clear cut enough that that people don't feel reflexively IT was unfair.

I think about to what trump's attitude is and I think you'll be up to the governors of the states, whether the republicans or democrats and most the battle battleground take governors are democrats to um to tabbas transparent and and clear about any irregularity and and its potential impact on the outcome if all that happens uh and calla Harris is decides to in the transition and in her not girl address and in her legislative agenda to um to be uh gracious I think I think that we could be in a decent place. I think we'll probably be a republican senate and I think people have failed to game out if there's a republican senate, democratic house, democratic president, all of mega and and those unhappy with her winning will put their chips in the senate and say it's up the senate to keep her from turning this into a far life country. And that goes first and foremost in the initial instance to nominations. I think i'll be very difficult for heard to nominate anyone acceptable to the left. You can be confirmed by the senate.

so i'll just keep people in place.

Well, I mean, you can't be acting forever. It's a very, very limited. What you can do is an acting secretary and show on her people. So I worry a lot about that.

Um you know we one of the huge diffunce tions in this country regardless of party is is the and every president we'll tell you this and probably has is the difficult they are getting your your people in place because of the background checks in the confirmation process. You think about her. SHE started run for president not that long ago. SHE hasn't had time to start a regress transition. I really do worry about her, even if he emerges from the selection with the country in love with her. Not a whole country, but enough to have a honeymoon, if SHE raises the occasion, if SHE, if, if world leaders don't seem poys to take advantage of her in some way, even if all that happens, I really do worry about her getting a government in place, because I don't think your republican senate is going to confirm the kind of people who elisabeth warn in berny centers and aoc are going to demand her dominate.

You hear people motor darkly about some kind of civil conflict, the possibility of that, you worry about that less than most.

But I don't dismiss IT entirely. Again, i'm a big believer. S in governors, right? Civil conflict will take place in the state of some governor by definition.

I hope the governors all have great bipartisan plans for minimizing this and for policing. Peaceful protests are not allowing them to escalate, but not tramping on the first amendment. Um I think I think we could have violence regardless of who wins.

I think both sides are capable of that. I think the chances of an are minimize if the losing presidential candidate makes a clear they don't want that to happen and if the governors are vigilant and devising plans to to to baLance public a safety with first amendment. Um if those things happen, I I really am not all that concerned about about violence. If those things don't happen, i'm deeply concerned .

about IT mark out. I am grateful I mean that you are still powerful voice in media after .

all these years. Well, you're very nice. It's it's great to be here and your uh your um place in the world.

As you know, we have lots of mutual friends who have said to me and other people, you know, what's happened to talker? What has happened to talker and and I say, let me go find out. I'll be back so i'll go report back.

You're you're right here, right here. Good nature, iconic, classic, interested in the world. And as we say, i'm afraid to stand up when you agree and disagree.

My my cousins all say that what happened to talk? Worried about him? Yeah.

I know. I have dinner all the time with people who have knowing you for longer than I had known you and they just .

all what happened to I .

have happened to docker. I just IT was .

too corrupt for my head .

to leave yeah but so i'm i'm glad I I can go back to new york and maybe i'll do a room give .

the bob I say.

I say here, here's what happened to talker. It's got a nice desk, nice table with some good microphones. Study exactly beats right exercises when possible. You are nice to see me.

I love. Thank you. Good to see. Thanks for listen and tucker cross and show. If you enjoy IT, you can go to talk to cross in the calm to see everything that we have made the complete .

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