cover of episode 2024 Election Postmortem

2024 Election Postmortem

2024/11/14
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迈克尔·谢默对2024年美国总统大选的结果进行了分析,特朗普以312张选举人票和超过300万张普选票的优势战胜哈里斯。谢默认为,特朗普的胜利并非仅仅因为哈里斯的失误,更重要的是特朗普的竞选策略和能力非常出色。他分析了几个导致民主党失败的关键因素,包括哈里斯未能参加乔·罗根的节目,未能与激进的跨性别活动家保持距离,未能有效反驳特朗普对美国经济的负面评价,以及在移民和犯罪问题上的回应不够强硬。他还提到,一些极端左翼的行动反而损害了民主党的形象。谢默认为,民主党需要在未来的选举中吸取教训,纠正错误,才能重获选民的支持。他还对特朗普政府的一些潜在政策,如结束乌克兰战争、与以色列和谈、与朝鲜和中国对话以及精简政府机构等,进行了分析和评价,并表达了对未来政治局势的乐观态度。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What were the final electoral and popular vote results in the 2024 presidential election?

Trump won 312 electoral votes and 75,243,164 popular votes, while Harris secured 226 electoral votes and 72,037,991 popular votes.

Why did Michael Shermer suggest that Democrats should not panic after the 2024 election loss?

Shermer pointed out the historical pattern of the political pendulum swinging between Republicans and Democrats, suggesting that Democrats could regain power in the 2028 or 2032 elections.

What advice did Shermer give to Democrats to avoid alienating voters?

He advised Democrats to distance themselves from radical trans activists, avoid extreme rhetoric, and focus on centrist policies to appeal to a broader audience.

What did Shermer criticize Kamala Harris for during the campaign?

Shermer criticized Harris for not appearing on the Joe Rogan show, failing to counter Trump's economic and crime narratives effectively, and not addressing immigration issues adequately.

What did Shermer suggest about the role of visual data in changing public opinion?

Shermer emphasized that visual graphs can be more effective than verbal arguments in changing minds, citing research that shows humans respond better to visual evidence.

What optimistic view did Shermer have about Trump's potential foreign policy initiatives?

Shermer suggested that Trump could potentially end the Ukraine war and the conflict in Gaza by negotiating with Putin and Israel, saving American taxpayers money and reducing civilian casualties.

What did Shermer propose regarding government efficiency and tax deductions?

Shermer supported the idea of reducing the number of government agencies and allowing tax deductions for parents who opt for private or homeschooling for their children.

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the historical pattern of power shifts between Democrats and Republicans, reassuring Democrats that their party will likely return to power in the future. It emphasizes the importance of both parties in a healthy political system and encourages Democrats to remain engaged rather than resorting to extreme measures.
  • Mill's Maxim: a party of order and a party of progress are necessary for a healthy state.
  • Historical data of presidential power shifts between Democrats and Republicans.
  • Encouragement for Democrats to remain engaged and optimistic about future elections.

Shownotes Transcript

In this special solo episode, Michael Shermer reflects on the 2024 election.