Solana Weekly #26 - Short Term Bad, Long Term Gud
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What’s up everyone! This is Thomas Bahamas and you are here for Solana Weekly episode 26!

Solana Price - $19.10, down 7.7% from last week and looking like it wants lower. I’m going to get deep into why this is and why the sell pressure won’t stop anytime soon.

SolEth - Sitting at .01069, down 7.5% from last week. Eth not looking strong, but Sol looking weaker.

SolBTC - .0007293 - which is a decrease of 5.5%, Sol is not performing well and holding up to the rest of the market.

Why is Sol dumping you’re probably asking? Well we have major bagholders dumping.

https://twitter.com/solanobahn/status/1660465899995025408) Here’s a thread worth reading by SolanoBahn.

But in summary we have a super old wallet somewhat connected to FTX/Alameda that is dumping the f out of Sol. They had 17 million Sol and have dumped 7 million Sol of it so far. This is likely the “Wintermute Dumper” that has been TWAPing out of their position for months. They are the reason we haven’t had breakouts and it looks like the buyers at 20 have exhausted their willingness to defend it. Now we break down below support and they still have 10 million Sol to fire at us. Not great.

So short term it’s not looking great, my guess is we hit 17, bounce, then hit 13 in the short term. But all is not lost!

We’ve got a long term massive bull case for Solana thread, one that I haven’t really seen.

https://twitter.com/solbeachbum/status/1660604668332896258)

Sol Beach Bum coming out with that fire. On it’s current path this puts Solana price up 100x in 10 years, moving to a deflationary currency, a store of value, and TPS over 200k. Rarely do we see predictions like this backed up by data, and I feel like he did a good job of putting those projections together. What this means for us, is to watch out with leverage, stack your Sol’s while you can, be in it for the long term, and that Sol’s price will be stunted in the short term. Once you know this, it will set you free.

Metaplex drama - starting to tax NFT mint’s at .01 Sol per. Community up in arms.

MadLads catching a pump and I’m here for it.

Asset Dash’s Vanta NFT just dropped and sold out in minutes, good sign that there is still demand for good mints, I just haven’t seen that many.

Chat GPT coming to Solana.

NFT Fi is still exploding, people are stacking that Sol this way, still think it’s generally useless and a net negative.

FTX 2.0 gaining some steam.

Ledger - everyone is pissed at it for adding an OPTIONAL social recovery plan. Good idea and probably needed if we want secure storage for normies, but pissing off us cypherpunks.

BTC NFT’s are pumping and HGE is moving ABC over.

Drift is killing it, added mSOL as a collateral option and have 6400 mSol deposited currently.

What it all means: I don’t think we are out of the weeds with sol and sol NFT’s just yet. The plan is to dca during dips for the next few months. If we get under 15 we stack hard. We are in an era where the protocol of Solana has immense value and is hitting its stride while the value of its token will be suppressed for the short term. I don’t think Solana summer will be the Solana token mooning. I think it will be opening up access to all markets on Solana. I think NFT’s get sorted out with Metaplex capitulating or a new standard being introduced. All this leads to more transactions, more users, better use cases and strengthens Solana’s value proposition.

While beach bum’s 10 year outlook seems pretty high, I can see it happening. That’s a 100x from now. That’s $2000 Solana and 500 Solana makes you a millionaire.

We must simply look at the big picture, not waste our time playing games we can’t win. Adapt, overcome, thrive.

Stay healthy friends, This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thomasbahamas.substack.com)