Solana Weekly: #18 - BTC to a Milly and Rethinking Solana's Value
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What’s up everybody! I’m feeling the rush this morning and the energy is back in the Crypto economy. Bitcoin is having a renaissance and we are all going to benefit off of it. Traditional markets and finance are being tested and are getting scarier and scarier. Crypto isn’t the lifeboat, but it is alternate system with hope. My thesis is Solana plays a big part in this, but I want the theme of this episode to be how the sector is solving a problem, how the big picture comes together. This is how we make it. Going to try to get away from Twitter and charts for a bit to focus on this, honestly it’s addicting watching what’s going on.

Solana Price: 22.66 - with a low of $18.80 and a high of almost $24.00.

SolEth: .01255 - saw some pumps and dumps on this. Eth holding $1800 rn.

SolBTC: .000790- saw a ton of ups and downs, sitting at $28,710 and looking like up only.

I want to move on to some Solana cope I’ve been thinking about:

This kind of sums up the cope. Solana wins on 3, 5, and 6. Others are being worked on, but this is what we are up against. We saw Solana rip up and dump down like crazy, people making all sorts of crazy claims. But this is what it comes down to, and what people on the outside see. A fast NFT chain with a good user experience. A fun chain. But it lacks the rest. You won’t see people fleeing a USD crash to Solana, you won’t see tons of liquidity on defi protocols, and you can see 3 times the blockchain was halted.

FOMC going on right now, and expecting to raise rates by only 25 basis points, shifting from raising rates as they have been because they have broken many banks. We’ve seen 5 bank failures because they don’t have the reserves based on losses stemming from rates changing. Something like 200 other banks are at risk.

This leads to BTC going crazy and Balaji betting a million dollars that BTC goes to 1 million/coin in 90 days. He’s calling for a full collapse of the current system. It’s insane and not happening. BUT he’s not wrong to point out that there are major systemic issues. Bitcoin does solve a lot of this. Bitcoin will be a big player and benefactor of the current slip ups. Bitcoiners are insufferable, but seem to be right.

Counterparty risk - You keep your $ in a bank, they don’t keep your money in the bank. They loan that cash out to get more money back. It’s all good and dandy until they don’t make money or depositors want all their money back.

With Bitcoin you are out of the system and not relying on any institution. We’ve seen BTC go up 40% since these banks started failing and it doesn’t look like it’s stopping.

Balaji is a big voice, and the amount of impressions he’s getting for these bets is unreal.

From this, we will see risk assets go up. Fed saves banks, fed prints money to do so. Bitcoin up, crypto up, Solana up.

Solana will not be the primary mover here under this environment, and we have shifted to focusing on Bitcoin. This is not bearish for Solana, but the narratives around its value might actually be changing. It’s a fast nft chain that is user friendly. It’s down the risk curve from Bitcoin, but not that far. It becomes investable because of those features. Those features don’t bring in the value like they were.

The next billion users are not here for Solana, but the next billion dollars to invest in Solana might be here. It’s good enough for me, and we deserve a pump in price to save all the loyal degens for staying here.

Done with big picture, it’s changed, but it’s still bullish.

In NFT’s, Bitcoin Ordinals are here and I think it’s massive. This is bringing fun to Bitcoin, new development, new energy, and more importantly more users to the chain. Blockspace on Bitcoin is the most expensive blockspace, hands down. We are now using that blockspace for JPEGs. I’m in, I’m loving it, and I think that the most expensive JPEG’s belong on the most expensive and immutable blockchain.

I think we have to adjust to this, Magic Eden did and launched their Marketplace on Bitcoin. Wallets are better, I like Xverse, and Bitcoin is back in circulation.

Sol NFTs: We’ve got volume back bigly. Successful mints: Wolf Capital, Oogy, and B******s. It’s mint and print season baby. All doing well with Oogy leading the way and hitting over a 30 Sol floor.

Bullish on them and the Mad Lads coming up soon.

Current NFT meta: with Tensor taking over a lot of the volume it seems more and more like it’s a floor price meta. Mid rares matter way less than they did and you either sell instantly into an AMM at a small loss or sit and wait to sell at floor. Because of this I’m going to test out some raffles on Famous Foxes.

I think that NFT’s shouldn’t be overinvested in right now. Think about it, BTC up, Sol up, NFT prices down. So I am looking to divest some.

Been spending some time in Cyber Samurai’s discord and gotta recommend it. Top notch dao, underrated. They have charts, they have Ordinals talk, it’s stacked. Shake is dope and super smart.

Gotta talk MonkeDAO vs SMB.

They dropped their new proposal for the OMC collection and looks like it’s going to pass.

Why did they do this? They HAVE to. No royalties for SMB since December, new owner not working with them, they are essentially a high performing community pumping a collection for free.

Not sustainable.

The solution: drop a new collection, offer to buy SMB from Hades for 2 mill with the proceeds.

They don’t accept or no deal made in 2 months, we split ties. Launch OMC, pay the exec team and build out the best project for it.

I like it, it gets us out of limbo and has the potential for SMB to be the punks of Solana with whales owning them in Hades and gives a collection to MonkeDao to promote and crush.

Where it leaves my Monke? Bought in at 225, floor is 150ish. I’m down. I think I will be down more, but I’m okay with it long term. I think either way my bags get pumped and I’ll have a new monkey collection. I’ve already made the 225 back from being in MonkeDao through presale/wl flipping and getting in on Bonk early.

Either way, I’m bullish on the team, bullish on MonkeDao and bullish on Solana Monkey Business. We go up long term with either way.

Also forgot about Arbritrum airdrop, ship it. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thomasbahamas.substack.com)