cover of episode 美国防官员:美国尽可能建立威慑阻止中国武力攻台 - 12月 19日,2024年

美国防官员:美国尽可能建立威慑阻止中国武力攻台 - 12月 19日,2024年

2024/12/19
logo of podcast 每日视频新闻 - 美国之音

每日视频新闻 - 美国之音

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克里斯托弗·迈尔
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克里斯托弗·迈尔:中国凭借其广泛的工具和相当大的影响力,对美国国防部构成重大挑战。中国的行动不仅限于灰色地带或常规领域,也常常以更传统的方式运作。台湾问题是重要的军事关注点,未来可能面临中国武力攻台的风险。 美国正在学习乌克兰战争的经验教训,积极参与台湾自卫能力建设,但两者之间存在根本差异。美国的策略重点在于威慑,这是一种认知层面的博弈。美国正在谨慎调整策略,力求建立尽可能有效的威慑,以阻止中国对台湾采取军事行动。然而,美国也认识到中国是重要的贸易伙伴,这使得问题变得更加复杂。 中国和俄罗斯会在信息空间采取更具侵略性和风险的行动,试图通过信息手段削弱美国的战斗意志。虽然这些行动可能会在短期内取得一些优势,特别是发生冲突的情况下,但我对美国民众有信心。我相信,当美国民众面对事实,特别是来自美国政府或主要盟友和伙伴的事实时,他们会做出合理的判断。

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中文

The reason China is the pacing challenge for the Defense Department is because they have such a range of tools and considerable leverage that they can draw on.

It's rarely, at least in my experience, something that's exclusively in kind of this gray zone or regular space that they're operating. They often operate in more traditional ways as well. And I think the two flashpoints that we often focus on from a military perspective, of course, Taiwan and the concern that at some stage in the not too distant future, there may be a decision by the PRC to retake by force Taiwan. And so

as we look at some of the lessons we've gathered and I'm sure the PRC have gathered as well on Ukraine, there's certain aspects of how Taiwan would have to defend itself that we're actively leaning in on and I know others are as well. But there's fundamental differences as well. But at the end of the day, this is about

deterrence, I think, from our perspective. And that's a cognitive thing. And so here, I think we're carefully calibrating what we're doing at any given time to as much as possible establish that deterrence dissuade from a military operation into Taiwan. But recognizing China is an important trading partner of ours, too. And this gets out of my depth, not my job, but this is where this gets particularly complex. Jeff Selden with VLA.

- You talked about the information space and some other US agencies have warned about China in particular, but other countries like Russia, ceding the information space in an effort to really debilitate the US will to fight should there be a crisis, whether it's Taiwan or somewhere else.

How far ahead or how advanced are the Chinese efforts to cede the information space or the Russian efforts to do that in ways that would limit the ability of the U.S., whether regular warfare or regular warfare, to respond to a crisis? - I think Russia and China, yes, they're gonna be a lot more aggressive. They're gonna take a lot more risk. They're gonna try to message our population in ways that, frankly, we would find completely inappropriate and threatening.

How much that actually lands is, I think, a big open question. I tend to be very bullish on the U.S. population that when presented the facts, particularly presented the facts by the United States government or key allies and partners, they're going to take that as a given. It nonetheless doesn't mean that there won't be short-term advantages that the PRC and Russia can extract, particularly in a conflict situation.