Episode 420 - Gotham, NYFCC, NBR, EFA Winners, AFI 10, Spirit Award Nominations, Golden Globe & CCA Nomination Predictions, "The Gorge" & "Snow White" Trailers
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and that's really embarrassing, but thank you. This is nuts. It's a tie. I'm the king of the world! And the Oscar goes to... And the Oscar goes to... Gentlemen, my only object in being here is to try and get at the truth. Where shall I go? Where shall I go?

You hate bloggers.

Welcome to the Next Best Picture Podcast. And may I see Oppenheimer? Yes!

Hello everyone and welcome to episode 420 of the Next Best Picture podcast. I am your host Matt Neglia. The time of recording is 10.03am on December 8th, 2024. We are in the thick of awards season. Like truly, like in it, in it, in it. We had our first big week.

Good.

Good morning. And Lauren LaMagna. Wow, episode 420. You would think that we would have done something special, but you know, this is special enough. All right, so like I said, so much to get through. Gotham Awards, New York Film Critics Circle, National Board of Review,

Let's go. Oh.

♪♪

But first, what have we been watching this past week? Can you guys tell, like, I sound, like, manic in my tone? I mean, I don't know. Just a bit. How much coffee have you had this morning? Don't ask me such questions. Lauren, what did you watch this past week? Okay, so it's been an exciting week. I am still doing a little bit of catch-up, as we all are in the season, but I'll keep it short and sweet. I finally saw Conclave.

and absolutely loved it as someone who is not religious in nature, spiritual in nature, and definitely did not grow up in the Catholic world. It was really interesting for me to see it, but I absolutely loved everything from the screenplay to the production design to the editing to even the performances to the screenplay and the score. Absolutely loved it. It definitely shot up into my top 10 of the year, so I'm excited to see if it stays there.

And then I also finally saw Flow, which I have a bone to pick with all of these animated films that make me have anxiety attacks because I was super duper stressed the entire time about this goddamn cat. But I absolutely loved it. I thought the storytelling was beautiful and just pun intended or pun non-intended flowed so well. And yeah.

But yeah, I just want a nice animated film that will let me just relax and take a deep breath because I cry all the time during these films. But I absolutely loved it and highly recommend it to everyone. It's

It's so funny you say that. Yesterday, Giovanni came over and we did a triple animated feature of Lord of the Rings, The War of the Rohirrim, Flo, and Memoir of a Snail. Oh, my God. And while we were watching Flo, he too was so, so stressed while watching it. Yeah. Super into it. And then like Memoir of a Snail, he was like, this is kind of fucked up. Who is this Adam Elliot guy? Like...

The amount of times I was screaming, you guys got to get along. We have to get along, guys, about these dogs and cats.

The world is underwater. Of those animals. I can't like even think about those animals and not start to tear up. Like it's bad. But no, Flo had a really good week this week and we'll touch upon that more a little later and what it means for its award season chances for best animated feature. But Lauren, do you have anything else to add? Nope. That's really the big ones this week. All right. Dan Baer, how about you?

The first thing I saw was a documentary called Obsessed with Light, which is about Loie Fuller, who was a theatrical artist and dancer around the turn of the 19th century. And.

It's really, really fascinating for what it tells us about her. But I will say, like, you know, she pioneered this form of dance called serpentine dance, which is basically if you've ever seen someone dancing with a

these like fabrics around them and they make patterns with them. That's basically what that is. And hearing how she developed it and how she went beyond that to develop like theatrical lighting scenarios and machines to make her performances stand out even more from all the people who came after her imitating her is really cool. But yeah,

That said, like, I am the exact target audience for this movie, and even I found it esoteric and kind of standard. It's very talking heads documentary, but.

all of the talking heads are artists who were inspired by her work. So that's at least an interesting through line. But for someone who was such a groundbreaking person and artist, like she lived, she did so much at a time when women were not allowed to do these sorts of things. And it's always just kind of disappointing when documentaries about groundbreaking people are so standard and kind of generic, but yeah,

Really interesting stuff. If you have, if you are interested in dance or the theater in any way, I highly recommend you check it out. Uh, for the first time, I also saw Armand, which is the, uh, Norwegian selection for international feature this year. I think anyway, Roda runs fee is incredible, uh,

There are whole scenes in this that go on for far longer than they have any right to, and they really only work because she is amazing. She's maybe the most compelling actress of her generation, and this movie goes to some really weird places, but she makes it work. She's absolutely incredible.

Yeah, I wish more people were talking about this movie outside of just international feature, predominantly for her, because she is one of the best leading performances I think I've seen this year. Oh, yeah. Absolutely incredible stuff that she's giving in this movie. And a really good...

Directorial debut to the grandson of Liv Ullman and Ingmar Bergman. I mean, you would imagine that they would make a good movie, but this it's it is good stuff.

And I also saw Queer for a second time. And let me tell you, that movie gets even better on rewatch if you liked it the first time. I admit that that is one of the more divisive movies of this year, but I...

Absolutely adore it. And I loved it even more on a second watch. There's so much more nuance and little things that I missed the first time, especially in Daniel Craig and Drew Starkey's performances. I hope people don't sleep on this because if nothing else, it's one of the most unique films of the year. All right. For myself this past week, I'm really, really sorry to say I don't really have much to add. Yeah.

I was very busy this past week with some more rewatches. As I mentioned before, rewatched three animated features this past week, rewatched Queer. I was at the same screening as Dan. That was a good time. That was actually a rewatch, to your point, Dan, that I think I also really needed, not because I didn't like it the first time I did, but upon a rewatch this time around, I think now knowing like

what to expect in terms of the flow of the movie and what happens. I really, really enjoyed it even more on the second viewing. And I would not say it's a lesser Luca Guadagnino, like by any stretch at all. Um, it's definitely one of his more complex ones, uh, and as a, and it's a lot to take in, but there is, uh,

hopeless romantic within me that finds that movie absolutely devastating to sit through. And Daniel Craig is just extraordinary in it. So yeah, I agree. I highly recommend people check it out and that they don't sleep on it, hopefully. You know, there is one thing I did want to mention. I watched The Glassworker this week.

Have you guys heard of this movie? That's... It's Pakistan's animated feature. Well, their international feature entry for the Oscars. Yeah, that happens to be animated. But it's also the country's first ever 2D animated film, period. Oh, that I did not realize. Wow. Dan, the making of this thing is absolutely extraordinary. This young kid, the director of the movie,

23 years old when he first started working on this. He's 33 years old today. He's given 10 years of his life to...

Pitch this movie, raise funds for this movie. They had a Kickstarter. They got like a hundred over a hundred thousand dollars at first. He was inspired by Grave of the Fireflies, Hale Miyazaki and like all the great 2D animated. Say less. Imagine. Say less. This kid single handedly took all the CG animators in Pakistan.

And built the first ever 2D animation studio and taught them all how to do 2D animation. Wow. Just so that they can make this movie. It's like mind blowing. The movie itself is good. I wouldn't say it's great, but I'll tell you this right now. This kid, this director, he is going to make a great movie someday. That I have no doubt of, like at all. That's really cool. Yeah.

It is on my list of things to see. I have heard it's good, but haven't gotten around to it yet. And I want to just make sure everybody knows the name of this director, too. Usman Riaz.

I'm telling you, in a couple films down the line, I think he's going to be a titan in animation. He was just so well-spoken, carried himself so well, spoke to the film so beautifully. I mean, I was so, so impressed by him. And like I said, for a debut feature, the first coming out of a country that has never made a 2D animated film before, this was kind of mind-blowing. And then you hear what his influences are, and it's like,

Kid's on the right path. Do you think it stands a chance for animated feature? I mean, it could because nowadays international, I'm sorry, animated feature is so international that, you know, I'm not ruling out the possibility of this or Chicken for Linda coming in and crashing the party. It's just a question of what does it replace? And I've said this on the previous podcast episodes, and I'm going to say it here again. I'm pretty set in my five. Like, I am not going to change my predicted five. Right.

I really think it is Wild Robot, Inside Out 2, Flow, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace and Gromit. Like, I just, I can't move off of that. But we'll see. We will.

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What we saw this past week. Let's dive into what happened this past week. Now, I'm not going to go through this category by category because I just think it will be here forever. So let's go in chronological order. And first up was the Gotham Awards held in New York City. And as always...

They threw us for a lot of curveballs. It was a lot of fun watching the ceremony and watching Twitter melt down. We all did. As it went on. Well, that's the thing about the meltdowns. First of all, it's week one of major precursors. Come on. Everyone needs to stop being so reactionary about everything. And everybody just needs to calm down. It's more about the general consensus when we get a couple weeks in.

And we're going to know that by the time we get into probably mid-January, like around the time of the nominations, basically. Like, we'll see, like, who's really ahead at that point. And we'll be able to draw conclusions probably from there or start to draw conclusions. But until then, these are all very nice moments for Sing Sing. I think got a massive boost from the Gotham Awards. Wins for Coleman Domingo, Clarence Macklin, and a tribute to the cast. That was pretty amazing. Nickel Boys.

Absolutely. And it's doing well so far.

No Overland and All We Imagine is Light continue to sweep through a documentary feature and international feature. I do not expect that to change. As they should, really. But now the question is, we know one of them is definitely not getting nominated. Will the other one not get nominated too? Don't put that. It's too early to talk about that. Yeah, we'll see. I will say, though, another thing that also made me really happy was Azizel Jacobs winning screenplay for History Daughters. That

That made me so happy. That film in general needed something, so I'm glad it got that. Yeah. And we'll get to the other announcement about that film, but really happy that that's not being forgotten this year because it was one of my favorites at, not this year, but last year's TIFF. And Vera Drew, breakthrough director of The People's Joker. That made me so happy. Fun fact.

Vera Drew was one of the few people, along with Pablo Lorraine and Sebastian Stan, who closed out the after party. It was like 2.30 in the morning. They were still out, still drinking, still talking to people. I love that. Mm-hmm. It was a good time. Honestly, I would expect Vera Drew to be the last person standing. Yeah.

I would. Yeah, we all had a really, really good time that night. So Gotham Awards are always fun because nobody's taking anything too, too seriously at that point because it's so early in the season. Everybody gets up, gives their speeches. You know, there were speeches from Timothee Chalamet, Angelina Jolie. I mean, it was a huge, huge net cast of like who's in the award season this year, which was pretty exciting overall. Yeah.

The Best Feature Award went to a different man. I was going to say, what was the feeling in the room when that happened? Wow. Because obviously they could have given it other awards, but they didn't. It was a bit of a shock to everyone when that happened. But was the feeling in the room like people really liked the movie and were happy to see that happen? Or was it just surprise? Yeah.

You know, you have a lot of the publicists in the room who are thinking about this in terms of the rest of the campaign for award season. And so they're all like, well, that's nice, but it's a nonstarter and kind of a waste. Then you have our people who genuinely love the movie and are like, this is great exposure. I hope more people see it. Then you have people like me playing 3D chess and thinking, well, this doesn't help a different man, but this definitely helps Sebastian Stan. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah.

I mean, that was one of the things that movie, I feel like it really needed something like this to sort of get it back into the conversation. Conversation for what, though? Just in just the general awards conversation. Like people were talking about, have been talking about for months how, you

you know, awful the Sing Sing rollout was and how it's dead and blah, blah, blah. And like the fact that Coleman and Clarence both won when Sing Sing was already winning a performance tribute award at the Gotham's, I think says a lot about how much people are responding to this movie. Um,

And they, A24 never really dropped the ball on Sing Sing in that rollout and how that was going out. They always, they had a plan and they've stuck to it and I think it's working for them. But a different man, they really kind of did pass over a little bit, I think. They kind of left this one out to dry in terms of how much they were supporting it. So I was really happy to see that. Really, honestly, the big takeaway from Gotham's for me was A24, right?

Well, I mean, it feels like it's like that every year, to be honest. That is true. I mean, what I would say is this. I would say for a different man, I was thinking about it more in terms of how it helps Stan. But I would also go so far as to say this helps to put it on people's radar for a makeup nomination. Yeah. Which is something that I have never ruled out and I still think is very, very possible for the shortlist.

And anytime Adam Pearson can get any kind of recognition, that's also a good thing, too. Yes. And shout out to Adam if he's listening. He tells me he listens every week. So, dude, we love you.

Right. You know, it was really funny when Adam Pearson did say he listens to the podcast, Sebastian Stan leaned in and he was like, wait, he's got a podcast. And I love that. I had a heart attack when you said that to us. I swear to God. So hello, potentially, Stan and Adam. Anyway, moving on. New York Film Critics Circle.

One of the biggest precursors of the season, mostly because they get a lot of press and attention, and they also make some really good picks every year. This year was no exception. In fact, actually, they continued their tradition of throwing us at least one acting curveball, which was Carol Kane for Between the Temples. I can't. That's so cool. I can't.

I love it. I thought it was great. Like, why not? They're so cool. It's the most New York pick, also. Like...

Otherwise, wins for Adrian Brody, Kieran Culkin, Marion Jean-Baptiste, these were pretty expected, I would say. Nickel Boys winning cinematography and some sort of a combination of picture and director or director rather was also expected. In this case, they went with Rommel Ross for director and The Brutalist for film. I actually predicted it would go the opposite. I thought they would do Corbett for director and film Nickel Boys, but...

You know, either way, the New York taste was the New York taste as it usually is. And what else was a call out here? Flow, one animated feature. I think that was also pretty expected. All we imagine is light international feature, no other land, nonfiction film. You know, pretty predictable, I would say, for the most part. If you understand like the New York Film Critics Circle taste, like all these, I think, were other than Carol Kane, like pretty predictable. Yeah.

And Carole Kane really only not predictable because that movie is not an awards player. It's not, but it's got its champions. It does. And it's such a New York thing.

and she is such a New York performer that it makes complete sense. It's just wild to me that enough people saw it to vote for it. Well, the New York film critics see like every movie. I know, I know. So this isn't the Academy. And thank God for that. Yeah, truly. Brutalist winning best film.

Are we expecting a continuation of this across other groups as the season goes on, like Power of the Dog? Or are we thinking that this is Killers of the Flower Moon like last year? Like, what are we thinking here? I think that there is a good chance that we get a lot of different films winning this

just in general throughout the season. Well, it certainly started off that way so far. But I think for the trifecta, The Brutalist is looking pretty good. Yeah, if any film's going to have the majority of the critics' picks for best film, it's The Brutalist. So let's continue over to the National Board of Review, another New York-based group. And to Dan's point, in terms of picking different winners, man, oh, man. National Board of Review...

They National Board reviewed harder than they've ever National Board reviewed. I feel like people had opinions about this. Yes, did they ever. People thought this meant a lot more than it does. I completely agree with you. I mean, listen, at the end of the day, National Board Review, like the New York Film Critics Circle, does do...

An award ceremony where the winners do get together and they give speeches and sometimes those speeches get placed online and it can help with certain levels of exposure and such.

But once again, I need everybody to calm down. Like, this is not a one-to-one predictor. Like, these things might add up. Like, for example, Kieran Culkin winning both New York Film Critics Circle and National Board of Review? Yeah. Potentially a good sign. Maybe he's the Divine Joy Randolph of this year and he just sweeps the whole category, right? But then you have Elle Fanning for a complete unknown. Like, literally a complete...

From left field. And then I just like, nobody saw that coming. Them going for VA 24 horny leads of Daniel Craig and Nicole Kidman. Good for them. I love it. I love it for them. It's just like, wow. No, like who saw this coming? You know, wicked. I, you know,

I had a feeling Wicked would do really well here because if there's one thing that you can probably predict National Board of Review to usually do, it's usually to go for something more populist. They will tend to go back and forth between something that is really popular that plays broadly. And then every now and then they'll pick something that...

doesn't do that but for the most part like if you're looking for your populist movie that combines art and commerce like this is where Top Gun Maverick wins best film this is where Green Book wins

If you all remember that, in fact, actually, that was the last time that the National Border Review winner went on to win Best Picture. Yes. Remember that the fact that Wicked got in here, it's Top Gun Maverick. It means that it's getting nominated for Best Picture. It does not mean that it's winning.

I'm not shocked about the best film, per se. I know Wicked's pretty strong, but it's really the best director and the spotlight, because that was also Wicked, that just shows the strength of the film overall for me. So I wouldn't even say it's a bottom five at this point. My read right now on John M. Chu for director is this.

I think he's going to get the Globe nomination tomorrow. I think he's going to get the Critics' Choice Award nomination. I think he'll get a DGA nomination. I do not think he's going to get the Oscar nomination. And I say this because we have so much evidence in recent years of these populist films, their directors get overlooked by the director's branch.

We have so many examples of this. John Krasinski for Top Gun Maverick. Danny Villeneuve for Dune Part 1. James Cameron for Avatar The Way of Water. Need I go on? Yes, it's a Part 1. Right. Right. If anything, they'll reward him for completing the story next year if Part 2 lives up to the hype. Yeah. So...

That's my current read on it. But yeah, I agree. Wicked. Good for a nomination. Another thing I also like really started to take very seriously in combination with Gotham Awards, New York Film Critics Circle and National Board of Review, Mike Lee winning original screenplay for Hard Truths. I think that that's much stronger in screenplay than people are giving it credit for.

He has gotten nominated there before. It would not surprise me. And especially if Marion Jean-Baptiste keeps doing well, I think that bodes very well for people seeing the film and thus honoring it that way. Yeah. I don't think it gets in the picture, but for its chances in lead actress and in screenplay, that also had a really good week this week. What else can we look into here?

Once again, No Over Land picked up a prize, not documentary. That went to Sugarcane, which is another one that I think we're all in agreement is definitely going to probably get an Oscar nomination. And Flo picked up another animated prize. It is very clearly going to be the critics pick for animated feature. So let's like rethink this really quickly. If critics are not passionate about Inside Out 2, and from what I've gathered from the industry, they're not either. Yeah.

Do we think this race is between the wild robot and Flo? I have thought that for a while. Okay. Because I was honestly a little surprised to see wild robot not win here particularly. But...

It'll be very interesting to see because last year we kind of had this similar face-off where the international pick of Boyan Heron went up against Spider-Verse, and we saw how that turned out. So if Flo can go on a similar trajectory where it could win the Globe, BAFTA, that'll be very interesting. But then again...

Love Flo, love the director, love everything about that movie. I mean, Boy in the Heron had Hayao Miyazaki tied to it. That counts for something. So I'm not ready to declare Flo as the number one film for animated feature quite yet, but it definitely showed a lot of strength this past week. Yeah.

And then the last thing I just want to call out because it deserves being called out. Actually, no, two things. Sorry. Nosferatu for achievement in cinematography. Hell yes. Yes. Yes. That made me so happy. And thank you, critics, National Board of Review, anyone out there who continues to vote for Furiosa, a Mad Max saga to remind people that this film existed. Good movie.

And for the stunts, which is something that it unquestionably deserves. Yeah. I think the other important thing to point out about NBR is that we got the first international feature win for Seed of the Sacred Fig. We did. Yes.

And not all we imagine is light. Yep. That is a good call out, something to definitely take note of. You know, I think at this point in the week, people were starting to wonder if Amelia Perez was, you know, looking a little weak. But I think that that also got dispelled a little later on. Yeah. Which we'll get to in a bit here. I guess the final call out is Sing Sing, Adapted Screenplay.

Yeah, which again, like, I don't know if that necessarily means that it's now any sort of frontrunner in screenplay, but it means that people really like this movie and it is on their minds. If Sing Sing can just continue to have presence with all these major groups to some degree or another, whether it's Coleman, Macklin, the film, Adapted Screenplay, a special award, anything at all. Mm-hmm.

It bodes well, and it helps to solidify that Sing Sing, despite what people said about it earlier in the year with its rollout and so on and so forth. I need to really hammer this in. I think this is very, very important. A24 has really learned, I think, their lessons from what people criticized them for, for specifically the 2018 Oscar year. Mm-hmm.

And I think that when they do stuff like this with Sing Sing's rollout, everybody is ready to crucify them and bring out the pitchforks. They do have a strategy. They know what they're doing. They also are human, and mistakes can be made. But this idea of...

We're going to roll it out in the summer. Whatever it does, it ends up doing. And it didn't do much. People didn't go to see it. Now, granted, you could say it's because it didn't go to as many theaters. But is this the kind of movie that you would spend a lot of money on to roll out to a tremendous amount of theaters? No, you would try to platform it, which is what they tried to do.

Then the plan was for it to come back during the film awards season, which it is. And they're going to re-release it in theaters now in January. They're keeping it alive and consistent throughout the rest of the season. So...

I mean, like question it all you want. But at the end of the day, A24 knows how to get those nominations. They really do. I actually think they are one of the smarter indie like label campaigners out there. It isn't like a major Hollywood studio, but people just don't seem to give them enough credit for it. Well, I think also people just want to see the movie, which, you know, I can't blame them for. No, I can't either. That's a good point. All right. Following that.

Independent Spirit Award nominations happened. So much happened this week. Oh, did they? Jesus Christ, Indie Spirits.

They're always fun. I lost my shit when I saw the substance get in for best feature. I knew you would. Um, where's Coralie Farge in the director conversation now? Again, like the spirit of words, just they, they never make sense. No, they don't. Come on. Um,

Also, too, The Brutalist is only getting one nomination for director. Although that I truly think just that not a lot of people have seen that movie. Like if you did not go to a film festival where it played, you have not seen it. That doesn't apply to the voters for Spirit, though.

Matt, when did screeners go out? I think that... You really think that A24 said, oh, we'll get screeners for The Brutalist out just to the independent spirit voters when we haven't given them to anyone else? I think that there is enough independent spirit voters who saw the movie. Okay, that's maybe different. I'm saying that I'm not sure there are, or at least...

I'm not seeing it only show up where it did. I'm not surprised. Just got to remember, too. These are also jury voted categories again as well. So, yeah, there is that to consider. So but anyway, Nora did really well.

I saw the TV glow did really well. In fact, this is probably, I think for, I saw the TV glow, like, you know, this is the place, you know, for it to do extremely well. And if a Nora loses steam throughout the award season, this might be the, like the place where it has its day in the sun. Um, it depends. Of course, nickel boys also showed up here as well. Although it didn't do as strong as I thought it would.

Only got nominated for Best Feature in Cinematography. So that, too, was also missing in Director. But you know what kind of like came back here in a very surprising way? The Apprentice. Yeah. Nominations for Director, Sebastian Stan, and Editing. And people might look at that and think, oh, well, it's just a non-starter. It doesn't matter. I'm telling you, I think this all does matter for Sebastian Stan. Like, I definitely think that he still...

in this to a certain degree. But when I say a certain degree, I mean, it looks like from what I can tell, the critics are trying to push both the apprentice and a different man. And at some point we got like, this has to happen sooner, rather than later. At some point we all have to like collectively decide, are we pushing a different man or are we pushing the apprentice? Cause if you continue to split it, Stan has absolutely no hope.

of getting into the final Oscar five for director, for actor. He has no hope for getting in for director. But a different man also picked up nominations for screenplay, Adam Pearson for supporting performance. What were a couple of very interesting call outs? Night Bitch? Hello? I was shocked. Me too.

Although, you know, just rewatching the movie again for the podcast recently, the editing nomination is really deserved. Yeah. And, you know, Amy Adams, that's another one, too, where it's like, I don't know how far this goes. Maybe she just gets the Globe nomination and maybe SAG because SAG really loves her. But it's nice to see that she has some presence for a performance that is not being heavily ridiculed and is pretty good coming from her.

Yeah, it's this movie has been so quiet on the buzz front recently that I was starting to get worried about her. Yeah.

And it was nice to see her show up unexpectedly here, honestly. The other thing that made me really happy in the best lead performance category specifically was Ryan Destiny for The Fire Inside. Yes. Because she is phenomenal in that movie. Really happy to see her show up there.

I'm really glad Danella Deadweiler got in for the piano lesson. So I'm glad that she finally, she's got something officially on the board. And same with Jesse Eisenberg's screenplay for A Real Pain. So he is also officially starting. Same thing with Joan Chen for Dee Dee. Happy to see you. Yes. Oh, gosh. There's Carol Kane again. I will say I am...

Not concerned, but sad that Saoirse Ronan's nowhere right now. Yo, for real. Yeah, I would have thought I would have seen her here. I expected her here, so the fact that she's not here in any category for lead or supporting is upsetting. I'm not concerned. I don't think she's going anywhere right now, but it's just...

Interesting that she's not here. Here's the unfortunate reality about the outrun. Everyone that I've talked to, all voters that I've talked to about this movie have all said the same exact thing. She's amazing. Don't really like the movie. Yep. And she's the only nomination prospect for the movie. So this is a real struggle, especially when she's going up against the

with Cynthia Erivo or Nora with Mikey Madison, Amelia Perez with Carla, like... Angelina Jolie. Yeah. And even her, even Angelina, I think is, you know, might... Yeah, she might face an uphill battle here too because...

You've got to prioritize the women who are tied to the Best Picture contenders first and foremost. That's true. So one other thing to call out, at least before I probably recognize something else off the top of my head, but June Squibb for Thelma. Love it. Love that so, so, so much. Get that Globe nomination, June. Come on. We're rooting for you. I really, really want that for her. The other thing that made me really happy was seeing Blum,

Both Yura Bordasov and Karen Karnalian get in for a supporting performance for Inora. I've been out there on the Yura Bordasov train ever since NIF, but that whole ensemble is great. And I was really, really happy to see another one of the henchmen get nominated as well, especially because Karen is so funny. Yeah.

In that movie. My God. He's hilarious. I will hear that. No. Forever in my head. Yeah, he's he's my favorite supporting performance in that movie. I got to meet him the other day and just just a gentleman, you know, really, really nice guy.

Those guys were having a good time at the Gotham Awards. All three of them. Good. They should. They were having a fantastic time. Yes.

What else? What else? What else? What else? September 5th for editing, only nomination. But that stood out to me. Oh, something that made me really, really, really happy. Best breakthrough performance nomination for Mason Alexander Park for National Anthem. Oh, yeah. That's your film. National Anthem, one of the best movies I've seen this year, last year, any year, plus.

please seek it out if you can. And Mason Alexander Park specifically, fantastic supporting performance. Absolutely love them in that movie. The only movie that I saw that got, I think, two nominations that I have not seen is Big Boys. Oh, and Jazzy. And Jazzy, I was going to say for me. I missed that during Tribeca. Yeah. History Daughters got the Robert Albin award.

Jinx. Yep. Perfect. Well-deserved. Great way to recognize that movie and its ensemble. Really, really happy for all of them. Documentary feature. You know, a lot of people look into Spirit Awards for documentary feature contenders. And I think the two movies that got a boost here were Gaucho Gaucho and Soundtrack to Akutata. Yes, I would agree. And an international film, Hard Truth, showed up again, which is awesome. Yeah.

Green border love. We'd love to see it. Flow getting in here was really great, too. But let's face it. That's probably going to go to All We Imagine is Light, I imagine, in the end. Yeah. I feel like everyone's going to take every opportunity they possibly can to reward that throughout the season because it's not going to get the Oscar nomination for international. But what this could translate into is this could translate into All We Imagine is Light making a play for picture director screenplay.

I would love it. I'm not holding out hope, but I would love it. Just got to keep it consistent with the award mentions and wins, and then hopefully some groups will start to slowly get on board there. One of the Someone to Watch Award nominees, Sarah Friedland, the director of Familiar Touch.

I know Matt and I saw that. I don't think anyone else has because I don't know if it's available, but like great movie. So happy to see her mentioned for that. Shocked that she got that. But Kathleen Chalfant, the lead actress, didn't get into the lead performance category. It's one of those weird things.

uh, spirit things where it's like, well, clearly like people saw this, but not enough. I also want to, uh, highlight how like much the spirit awards also recognized horror with Hunter Schaefer for cuckoo, Demi Morpher, the substance. I saw the TV glow. I got it. I got to throw this out there too, because this is just another truly great performance from this year that I'm just glad to see getting mentioned. Um,

Kiefer Cooper for. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. He brought his daughter to the Gotham Awards the other night. Yay. Oh, my God. Yeah. Like what? What a gentleman. I mean, talk about someone who's really, really grateful that this small, very personal film that features members of his own family is getting recognized. Really, really happy for his daughter. Scray in it to a nominal phenomenal film. Yeah. God, one of my favorites of this year. He's mad.

Maybe my personal favorite leading male performance. Yeah. So good. All right. Well, the Spirit Award nominations were certainly fun and they will be held on February 22nd.

Let's head on over now next to the American Film Institute's AFI Top 10 Films of 2024, which were Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Doom Part II, Emilia Perez, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, and Wicked.

Funny story. I was at an Academy luncheon for Conclave. Ray Fiennes, John Lifko, Isabella Rossellini, some members of the crew, Edward Berger were there. They did a screening for the voters, and they invited all the voters over to a lunch. They did a Q&A during the lunch. It was really, really nice. And the entire time...

I was refreshing my phone waiting for this list to drop. So I must have spent like pretty much the entire time I was there just on my phone. It was so funny to look over in the corner and see all the Focus Features people also flipping through their phones, like trying to like see, are they going to announce? Are they going to announce? And then when they did announce, I ran over to Edward Berger and I told him, I was like, hey, congratulations, your film just made the AFI like top 10 list. And he goes, yeah.

Is that good? And I was like, yeah, it's great. He goes, oh, great. Is that good? Unbothered king. Truly, I love it. This was a pretty big one this week. Along with MBR, I would say this got some of the most talking points this past week because when I look at this 10...

It eerily does look like exactly what the Academy would do for their 10 for Best Picture. No, this list makes sense. Which is why I'm very nervous because AFI has never matched 10 for 10. It's always been...

out of 10 with one of the special award mentions getting in there. And that was only one year. And that was the, um, the 2010 year with the King speech. Otherwise it's always eight out of 10, seven out of 10, nine out of 10, you know? So, well, they also kind of seem to have just gone against their own rules this year. Yeah. I don't really know what to make of that. Just put Amelia Perez in the top 10, even though it's not a,

American? I saw an explanation for this and I just was like, I don't buy it. I don't understand it. What was the explanation? It was like something to do about...

The language and I don't know. It was like... Oh, because it has English spoken? Because there's English in it at times? Yeah. I just, like I said, I didn't really like buy it. So I kind of just dismissed it. It is what it is. It's here. It's a weird way for Netflix to have a film in the list. But that's the thing though. Hypothetically, if it wasn't here...

I think we would all be saying, oh, well, you know, it's nine out of 10 and then swap. Yeah. Present. So the fact that Amelia Perez isn't here, there is evidence to point to this and say, well, you know what? Maybe this is a 10 out of 10 here. Yeah, it would be that like that's the one ever would be in that slot would be the one that we would drop probably for Amelia Perez. The only.

The only other one that is kind of giving me pause on this list even slightly is just A Complete Unknown. But the fact that it got in here, I think, says something about how much Timothy's performance is getting people to like that movie. I agree with you on that. I would also say, too, that watch it get a Golden Globe nomination tomorrow. Yeah.

Yeah. Why should get a Critics' Choice nomination this week, too? Oh, of course. Yeah. And then at that point, what else? PGA? Boom. It's locked. It's in. Hell, it might even get a SAG Ensemble nomination. Actually, yeah, that is a possibility. No, I mean, seriously, because it is really dense. Like, think of like Ford v. Ferrari of how it had all these like character actors and just really strong supporting performances. Like Mangold...

He really knows how to get performances out of his actors. And it seems like everyone has a different favorite supporting performance. Actually, yeah. When I talk to people, that is the case. Mm hmm.

It's like Timmy's the center, but then there's all these other people that you can choose from pretty much. Some people prefer Barbaro. Some people prefer Fanning. Some people love Norton. I am very nervous. I am because I don't want to say 10 for 10. I don't. But then the problem is what do I drop? And it's like –

A complete unknown, maybe. But if it wasn't that, then I'm dealing with something really, really difficult here, which is a choice between Nickel Boy's Real Pain and Sing Sing. And that hurts. That really hurts. Yeah. So it's like, I want to avoid that hurt and just go with the 10, but I'm like, something just doesn't feel right. It just does not feel right to predict this 10 for 10. I'm sorry. Especially when you have on the outside, look at what didn't get in here, right? The substance.

All we imagine is light, the seed of sacred fig, and what else is seriously in contention? Hell, you can even make the argument that the seed of sacred fig is no longer seriously in contention if you want to at this point. Yeah. But are we really expecting the Academy to really go for the substance?

Really? It was always a long shot. Well, but I also don't want to treat it like it's completely dead either. No, no, absolutely not. No, it's not dead. No. Because it's still getting mentioned. Like if you look at the regionals, it's getting mentioned across the board. Not always in Best Picture, but it's always a presence. But this could just be a quote unquote film Twitter thing. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Absolutely. So what I think is more likely is...

is the international voting bloc going to bat for all we imagine is light or seed of the sacred fig seed of the sacred fig is like literally at the tail end now where it needs to do well at either LAFCA today or

or needs to get some surprise globe nominations. But that's the thing I'm going to be looking out for with the globe nominations tomorrow is remember how they surprised us last year with nominations for anatomy and zone of interest, whatever gets that kind of a boost tomorrow, if anything gets that kind of a boost, that's what I would watch out for. I was going to say like watch Rasul if, or, uh,

Yeah, Ikepadia get a nomination for director. See, like that or say Steven Seagrafic ends up in screenplay, you know? Yeah. Like at that point, I would be pointing and saying, guys, guys, alert, red alert. Or even if Coralie Fargeant manages to get in for director or screenplay, like that could happen too. That would be great. The dream. That would be great. I know.

But at that point, then once again, why do I drop from the AFA to make it happen? Oh, tough, tough days ahead. All right, let's continue. European Film Award winners were last night and all the talk about Amelia Perez. Guys, guys, listen, I know you don't want to hear it. I know you don't want to believe it. I have been saying since day one. Yeah. The Letterboxd Reviews.

The critics reviews the social media. It doesn't mean anything if the industry loves it. That's it. How many lessons do we need to learn about this before we just accept it as fact? Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, Joker, Don't Look Up.

When they love what they love, no amount of critical bashing can bring it down because they will dig their heels in and say, you can't tell me what to love. I love this. And that's it. Best film, best director, best actress, best screenplay. What are you, Grace Randolph? For real. It's true, though. It's true. It completely swept here. And this is an industry award, people. This is not film critics.

Emilia Perez has the international voting block. It just does. That's it. Like any talk about it missing best picture because the scores, the critic scores keep sliding down or whatever. Just I'm sorry. Get it out of your head. Get it out of your head. It's here to stay. This was overwhelming. Like I was shocked that it did this well. I knew it would do well, but I didn't think it would do this well. Like screenplay. I mean,

Jesus Christ. Truly wild. And because I thought Muhammad Rasooliff would take that or, you know, or even Corley Farge. Yeah, man. Or Pedro. Wild. Absolutely wild. And look, shout out to Carla Sofia Gascon, the first trans actress to win this prize. Yes. She deserves. She deserves. And that was an incredible category that she was in.

Yeah. She's the real deal. Yep. She really is. Watch out for her this entire rest of the season because every time she wins, it's history. Every time she gets nominated, it's history. And people want to be on the side of making history, except when it's Lily Gladstone. No, no, don't. No. You know what? I'm not over it. So I'm sorry. Flo picked up another reward here for animated feature.

No Overland picked up another award for documentary. All things to take note of. No Other Land also won the IDA. My God, I forgot about that. You're right. No Other Land just had a really, really good week. And this is fantastic. It needed it. It really did. This is the kind of thing right now where I think if No Other Land...

continues this, which I fully expected to do. I think it's going to be the critics leader. Yeah, probably throughout the season. It might contend with one of the more popular ones when we get to the regionals. Maybe they go for Superman or Will and Harper a little bit more. But my gut instinct says if No Overland manages to get that Oscar nomination, it's probably winning. If it doesn't get the Oscar nomination, then well, obviously it's not. But

Now, people are wondering, like, why am I even considering the possibility of it missing? There are many, many good reasons. I was going to say, that's a very multifaceted, we do not have time to get into it conversation. But all I'll say is...

You know, the lack of distribution, I definitely think is a factor. And there's also the political divide and people within the Academy who are going to take sides on this and not even watch it. It is also like one of the few documentaries I can think of this year where I can think people just immediately going, nope, don't want to see it. And then actually not seeing it. Yeah. So, yeah.

Golden Globe nomination predictions. We're not going to do this category by category. If you guys want to know our predictions, they're up on the site. I will link it in the show notes for you. You can check it all out. But by the time you're listening to this Monday, nominations will already be out anyway. So it's all for naught. So is there anything that we want to touch on or a surprise, something like very specific that you want to just call out as like, hey, I think this will happen tomorrow?

I'll throw one out there. I think John M. Chu is getting in for director. I think that's absolutely a possibility. What about Jonathan Bailey getting in for supporting actor? Like if they're really wicked pilled. I can see it. I can see it. One thing I did notice, and I probably should change this. I think I am going to change this because I didn't realize it as I was doing it.

I have Nickel Boys getting in for picture drama, but I don't have it getting any other nominations. So I think I need to change that. I'm going to be gross. And I think Ryan Reynolds for comedy.

motion picture for Deadpool and Wolverine. They are campaigning it, aren't they? He's paying so much money to campaign it. And I just, I, it's happening. I don't know if it's fully happening cause he didn't get in for the second one. So I'm not, I'm not fully sold on it just yet, but good for you. I've accepted it. No,

No, I have Michael Keaton. I have I have Gabriel LaBelle. I think Saturday night could do well here. Maybe get in for picture and then for Gabriel LaBelle as well. I'm holding out hope for Hugh Grant to get in for heretic. I me too. Although like, I don't know that movie being in comedy is a choice. He is funny. He is incredibly funny. I

I think this is where also Edward Norton will show up for the first time for a complete unknown is my guess. I think this is where Saoirse Ronan pops up or outrun. She better. I mean, six frickin nominations across a split category. Like if she doesn't hear there's a serious problem. And, you know, kind of to that point.

yeah, we have two categories with six nominations each. If you don't show up here, I definitely think you're... You better make, like, the holiest of Hail Mary comebacks than with SAG and BAFTA. Although, like, speaking of that, I think that because of those expanding categories, there's also a

really good chance that challengers does really well here especially since it's in comedy categories but don't expect those to transfer to the academy necessarily yeah I have challengers getting in for musical comedy and I have Zendaya yeah and I think it could also honestly like it could contend potentially for one of the guys in supporting actor as well and score

Yeah, score would be great. I would love to see that happen. Mm hmm. What else? What else? What else? One thing, because this happened, the Dune part to score disqualification for the Oscars happened afterwards.

After we had already made our predictions for this, is it still eligible for the Golden Globe? It is. Globes and CCA, it's still eligible. But unfortunately, Oscars and BAFTAs, it's not. Yeah. Interesting. Yeah. It's kind of a bummer because it is my, well, one of my favorite scores of the year. I don't know if it's my favorite just yet, but I've listened to it a lot. And yeah.

I, as a massive dude fan, I just want to see that film get recognized anywhere and everywhere it possibly can. But at the same time, I kind of view it like Andrew Lesney winning cinematography for The Fellowship of the Ring and not being nominated for the other two films. And it's like, you know...

Hans got his. And if he doesn't get nominated for this or for doing Messiah, I can always just point to this and just be like, you know what? That trilogy of films like Hans got his, you know? And so that kind of makes me feel good, you know?

But with that said, I am hoping the wild robot shows up here. Yes. Yeah. Jinx. Wild robot getting a new score would be fantastic. I would really love that. I'm keeping an eye on to see if the globes do what they've done the last couple of years. And if they really do just put in a Moana two and for animated feature, I mean, this is so tricky because like, I feel like the big argument for Moana two is that is it's box office take that,

And that happened potentially after they voted? Yeah, but like they saw it before they voted. Sure, yes. Absolutely, they saw it beforehand. It's not so much that the box office is the argument. It's more like they've nominated Super Mario Brothers, Wish, you know? It's like they would do either this or say something like piece by piece. What do you guys think is getting in for the cinematic box office achievement?

I mean, Wicked. Do we have to talk about this category? It's fine. It doesn't matter because Wicked is winning. That's true.

I mean, I think Wicked's going to win the globe in general, personally. It's going to win the globes, period. Yeah, yeah. But yeah, I would imagine Inside Out 2, Deadpool and Wolverine, like we said before, Dune. Dune, Beetlejuice. Yeah, Beetlejuice makes sense. Gladiator, because then they can say Glicked got in there. If we could do a Twisters moment with Glenn Powell. Yeah, Twisters, please. Like a double hit with him and Hitman.

I do expect him to get nominated for Hitman. Oh, yes. And come on, you guys want him to scream if you feel it on the Golden Globes. You want that to happen. Oh, you know what? Just in terms of the lead actor categories really quick, I'll just throw this out there.

Watch Alfred Kingsley Ben-Adir. Oh, yeah. I think that's very likely. I do not believe, no matter what, even if they think that the performance was good, I do not think that Joaquin Phoenix is showing up. Oh, no. In the nominations or physically. Probably not. Yeah.

And then what's my other call out here? Oh, Lauren, watch out for your girl, Kate Winslet. I know. Oh, yeah. She's so... I need to watch this movie because she's so... I mean, we know this woman loves to campaign more than anything in the world. But boy, is she campaigning. She is. And Francis Fisher right alongside her. Mm-hmm. Her best friend. You know what's another thing that I'm kind of... You know, it's a little bit of an outside pick, but...

Something that I'm like, you know, not very many people are doing this. I think it could happen. I have Margaret Qualley for The Substance. I agree. I think she would get in here. I think that old Globes, especially, she would have been like a lot. New Globes, we'll see. All right. Anything else? Sebastian Stan doing The Double. Yeah, he's doing it. I have him just doing it for a different man in Comedy Musical.

They love to double dip. They really do when they have the option. They don't do it all the time, but they do like it. My problem with this is... And it's comedy drama. There's more spots. I know. I know. I just feel like Kinsley Ben-Adir is like a more...

broader, friendly performance. And that's why I'm going with him over Stan in the drama. But I have Stan getting in for comedy musicals. So it actually like that's the place where I feel like I'm not even sure that it's necessarily Kingsley who drops.

If Stan does happen, like, I'm wondering... You think Craig? It could be Craig or, like, a smaller movie, like, maybe even Domingo Misses for Sing Sing. Like... Yeah, something to consider. I did see, Dan, that you went out on a limb for Jesse Plemons in Kinds of Kindness and... I did because it feels like a more, like...

foreign Hollywood foreign press coded kind of movie. Yeah. But that's really mostly just like me being like, what's some wild thing that could happen in this? I'm not sure that it will, but I like to have one. No guts, no glory. Yeah. Yeah.

Well, we'll find out very, very soon. Tomorrow morning. I can't wait. It's going to be a lot of fun. Oh, it's going to be fun. All right. And then if we look at the rest of the week here, as I mentioned earlier, Oscar shortlist voting begins tomorrow as well at 12 p.m. right after the Golden Globe nominations are announced. One of the things that I'm really, really hoping gets a boost from the Globes that kind of leads into the shortlist voting.

I'm still hearing Fernanda Torres. Yes. Well, sorry. Fernanda Torres, yes, in general. I understand that that's not part of the shortlist voting. But there are a couple of international films at the Globes that could show up in the early morning that I think could stand to get a nice boost, right? That's one. Girl with a Needle would be another one, I would imagine. Vermilio. Yeah.

You know, kneecap if it were to show up at the Globes. How to make millions before grandma dies. So... Yeah. Pay very close attention to what gets in that morning because the shortlist voting opens up right afterwards. So...

Going off of that, we have the makeup and hairstylist guild nominations this week. I expect Wicked to do very well there. I expect Wicked to do well too. I am praying to the Lord for Sasquatch Sunset though. Oh, please. That was so good. And I'm praying to every single god under the sun.

I would like to see Sasquatch, Sunsick. I've recognized a different man. Yeah. Just give me like those kooky, weird, you know, indie films that get a makeup nomination. The Substance goes without saying. Nosferatu goes without saying. Look, we know Beetlejuice is getting nominated here, but like, do we need to shower it with so much love? Like, show it some for the other smaller movies. New, original, practical stuff. Yes. Yeah. Yeah.

Do you guys think that something like Maria would show up here? I think it could because like, don't they have like very specific categories? Yeah. Like it could show up in like, you know, best like single character makeup or something like. Another thing that's also getting announced this week, the American cinema editors, Eddie award nominations. I am very interested to see what happens with that.

Yeah, Will Mavity's been paying close attention to that. And, you know, there's a couple of things here like the substance, challengers. I'll be keeping a close eye on to make sure that those make it in. Because if they do, they're very much, I think, in play then for Oscar nominations. Editing is a very, very interesting category this year. I don't think a lot of people have talked about editing that much. But there's a lot of possibilities. I mean, like,

far too many. I mean, you look at just like, what would you say like the top five are? Conclave, Dune, Brutalist, Sonora, Amelia Perez, right? Yes. Like that's like a consensus. Like give or take, yeah. Like that's a consensus five, right? Mm-hmm. Sure. But then you have to throw in the possibility of stuff like Wicked and Challengers, as we said earlier. Mm-hmm. And...

Or like there's always that category is where you see things show up where like that just show overall strength and love within the Academy. Like if a real pain is a top five best picture contender, it could get in there. If sing sing is, then it could get in there. You know, yeah, it's such a weird category. I haven't had time to do this, but I would like to, when I have a moment, I want to like go back to, um,

At least 2009. So the last 15 years. And I want to look at all of the nominees for both categories. And I want to see if there was an editing nomination at the Oscars that did not get an ace nomination. I have to like double check that, though. So I don't have that information here, but that's probably something I will do in my in my spare time. Go CCA.

CCA on the 12th. Y'all ready to fill out your ballot, Matt? You know, I'm glad you asked me to stand because I want to tell people something about the CCA ballot because everybody always every year always talks about like how, oh, CCA just tries to predict the Oscars. They have very, very basic taste and in due zone of interest or an Emmy of a fall last year, blah, blah, blah. Here's the way the ballot works, people, so that everybody understands this a little bit better. There are five slots available.

For best picture, there are three slots for every other category. Now, if you're not like me and you don't do like the outside the box passion picks that you're like saying, OK, like I assume everything else is safe. So I'm going to vote for the ones I really care about that I really want to see get in because that's the way I treat my CCA ballot. Most people don't.

Don't do that. And instead, they do those obvious choices of, well, if I've only got three slots for director, I'm going with Denny Villeneuve, Edward Berger, and I don't know who's in the really obvious one. Sean Baker. I don't know, right? And that's it. You only get three slots.

But because of that, that's why it's so top-heavy, and then the ones that do get in are the likely expected ones. Yeah, because limiting the number of nominees that you can nominate on your ballot especially pushes it towards the broadest appeal. Right. So –

That's that's the way it works and that's why the nominations end up the way that they end up It's not due to lack of trying to on some people's part Like I said, I look at it from a standpoint of well You know what? I am gonna vote for the stuff that I really do love and the stuff that like I really want to see get in But I recognize it's on the outside looking in and I really want to push it in there So like I'm going to go hard for the substance. I'm gonna go hard for nickel boys knows for Ratu Yeah, absolutely

You know, like there will definitely be a couple of categories here and there where I'm like, you know, like I don't like I don't like throwing away my votes, but I like to give it to stuff that I'm like, like this could make it like this really could if enough people just do this, you know, and we'll see. Well, so thinking about all the things at play here, including what you just said, Matt.

How well do you think the Brutalist really does with CCA? I think it does well. I do. I'm not doubting the Brutalist, like, dropping. I mean, like, could I see it missing a thing or two here or there? Maybe, but I wouldn't read into it that much, honestly. You know, like I said, CCA, as a nomination predictor...

Like, it's a solid precursor, but it's not the be-all, end-all, as we saw last year with no mentions of anatomy and zone of interest and picture director, right? So I wouldn't, like, start freaking out just yet when the nominations come out. Obviously, when we get to the show and we start talking about the winners, you know, that's where we start, you know, taking it a little bit more seriously. And then Oscar shortlist voting ends.

On the 13th, 8 p.m. Wee! Crazy. Costume Designer Guilds also on the 13th. In thinking, we'll see obviously Wicked. Yes. Dune. Gladiator. And Nosferatu. Nosferatu. Blitz. I expect Blitz will show up here. Beetlejuice in the comedy, I'm sorry, the sci-fi fantasy category. A Complete Unknown probably, I would think.

Furiosa sci-fi fantasy. That would be awesome. Yes, that'd be awesome. I wonder if Conclave can get in. I've been thinking about Conclave a lot in costumes and because there are like a lot of them.

Mostly because they're just like very memorable. But they're also the same. They are also the same. But like, again, people have gotten nominated for casts of all just suits before. So yeah, but different types of suits, at least a suit is a suit. I get that. Accurate to the job that they're doing. It is. All right. Well, that's the calendar. Uh,

uh for this upcoming week it's gonna be a lot guys but uh it'll be a fun fun week not to mention all the regional critics that are going to be announcing as well so god pay attention to nextbestpicture.com our calendar is as we know it up to date as much as humanly possible we're keeping track of the precursor wins throughout the season and we will keep you informed every step of the way

Let's head on over next now to our trailers for this week. First up, we have The Gorge, directed by Scott Derrickson, which is starring Miles Teller.

Anya Taylor-Joy and Sigourney Weaver. It's going to be released on Apple TV Plus on February 14th. So a nice Valentine's Day film with two snipers. Such odd choice for Valentine's Day. But let's take a look at the trailer and get some thoughts. I have new orders that require me to go dark for at least a year, maybe more. A special assignment in an undisclosed location. As an elite sniper, are you presently under any private or military contract?

There's not a lot of reasons for me right now. What if I gave you a reason? There she is. West Tower observation post. Your home for the next 365 days. There is no outside communication here. What's that on the other side? That is East Tower. Contact with the other side is strictly forbidden. So what's the mission? To keep people from going in the gorge? No. You need to stop what's in the gorge from coming out. What the hell is that?

The Gorge is the door to hell, and we're standing guard at the gate. Two snipers and a monster. This was such a confounding trailer to me because on one hand, I think the premise is absolutely insane. On the other hand, shot by Dan Lauston, scored by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Miles Teller and Anya Taylor-Joy are compelling actors, even if they are separated the majority of the movie, it looks like.

but where this trailer kind of lost me was I'm going to flirt with you by shooting at you. Like, it's just like,

I mean, how else would you flirt as an assassin? This is so ridiculous. I can't. Come on. Matt, the gorge is the literal gate to hell. What were you expecting? I know when they said that. Truly, the release date was the big jump scare of this trailer for me. I was like, Valentine's Day? Really? Straight to streaming as well. What?

But like, I, I don't know. I love a trailer that obviously leaves the third act completely up to the audience's imagination. I appreciate it when they don't spoil everything. So I'm, I, and I'm not going to lie. I'm kind of excited for whatever is down there on the bottom of that gorge. Not going to lie. Yeah, me too. I'm expecting like, remember that movie with Chris Pratt, the tomorrow war, uh,

No. No. I'm just saying I would like to see some interesting creature design like that movie had, but sorry you guys didn't see that movie. Unfortunately, for some reason, I am like solely contractually obliged to watch anything that features a female assassin, sniper, spy, or vigilante. I don't know why. It just is part of my existence. Yeah.

And dear listener, there are so many duds in this subgenre. So I can handle anything. And so I, again, have to watch this. And I'll probably enjoy it. Scott Derrickson, though. Good director, I think. Yes, I agree. That's like the one thing that, like, even if the script sounds a little hokey, I imagine he's going to direct the hell out of this. And once again...

Shot by Dan Lauston, one of the most underrated DPs working today, or maybe not underrated. He is nominated for two Oscars. One of the best. But yeah, one of the best. All right. I don't have anything else. Do you guys have anything else? Mm-mm. Okay. Let's move over to our next trailer for Snow White. Aw. Coming out on March 21st from Disney, directed by Mark Webb, starring Rachel Zegler, Gal Gadot. Hi, home. This was my father's kingdom.

A place of fairness? Let the Queen change everything. Take him away! Your Majesty. What did you say? The people need some kindness. You know, I really don't remember you being this opinionated. Magic mirror on the wall. Who is the fairest of them all? Famed is thy beauty, Majesty. But the lovely maiden I now behold. I look at you, and I just want to be...

This literally represents everything that we've been complaining about for how many years now when it comes to the live action remakes? Like, did no one get the memo that this is not what we want? We are here encountering the undead. Snow White. I just... There's so much, like...

I know that not everything in this trailer is CGI, but everything looks CGI because of how they've shot it. And on top of that, the things that are clearly CGI are like eye-searingly bad CGI. I'm sorry, and I understand, but the dwarves look...

Straight out of the Polar Express. Yeah, it's pure Uncanny Valley nothingness. And the fact that the only real song in the trailer is a completely anonymous new song for Snow White. That also sounds like everything that I heard Ariana DeBose doing Wish last year.

Yeah, it's that. It's what Rachel Zegler herself did in Spellbound. It's what Moana did in Moana 2. It's so lazy and uninspiring and I just can't stand it anymore. I'm about to lose it. The expansion of the story, like, is that really necessary? And in everything too, how the hell do you convince an audience that

that Gal Gadot is worried about her perceived beauty. Especially when compared to Rachel Zegler. Like, ugh.

Like, not that Rachel's like there isn't gorgeous, but I was going to say, Dan, like, like, what's your argument here? Not that they're not gorgeous, but like you look at them, they're at least like equal levels of beautiful. Right. You know, like, I don't think there's a word we're saying, like, well, Rachel's like there is obviously extremely superior to Gal Gadot in terms of beauty. I just don't get it. No. No.

So that argument doesn't make any sense to me either. And it's just uninspiring. Like Gal Gadot, especially like she's going up after like Charlize Theron had the character and she played with that character like it was her favorite toy in the toy chest. So like it comparatively, which I know you shouldn't do this version, like no offense on Gal Gadot, but offense like there. It's just so bland. Now, there's two things that jumped out to me.

In a positive way. One, are the costumes. Sure. Yep, yep, okay. The second thing, if this is true, I will consider this a positive. Is that Gal Gadot under the makeup of the disguise of the Evil Queen? Doubt it. No, I think so. I think so. Because it certainly sounded like her. If it is, then that is awesome. I would, I, that's great. Yeah.

All I know, Rachel Zegler will be innocent from this. I will forgive her. She did not mean anything, but... Rachel Zegler herself can do no wrong. She can. And I just feel sorry for this poor girl who, like, every single project she's in, there's always something. I mean, she did criticize the original film.

And she had to roll back on that. She criticized half of the country that voted for Trump, and she had to roll back on that because I'm sure Disney said something to her about that. She's 20. That's the thing is that, yeah, she's young. She's had fame thrust upon her really, really fast. I don't hold it against her. No, me neither. She's still finding her way through this industry.

And she, by all reports that I know, she's a very lovely person. Go see her in Y2K out in theaters now. Talk about a movie that nobody's talking about. Jesus. Even I haven't seen Y2K. Which makes me so sad because it's so much fun. Yeah. Everybody go. Or you can watch Spellbound on Netflix, currently streaming. Mm-hmm.

She's selling out theater in the round on Broadway right now. Yes, she is doing really well. Deservedly. So people are showing up standing room in a Broadway theater. Yeah, that's pretty cool for Shakespeare. Yeah. All right, guys, for last week's poll, we asked everyone, which is your favorite film starring Amy Adams? Not favorite Amy Adams performance, but favorite film starring Amy Adams. We asked this for the release of Night Bitch. Lauren, you go first.

Oh, mine is easily Her. I love that movie so much. I think it's one of the best films of that decade. I am so, so close because Her is my number two, but I am giving the edge to The Master. That makes sense for you. I'll accept that. Look, I can't deny and say Her is absolutely my favorite film that she has been in. But when I think of like my favorite Amy Adams film...

Oh, yeah. Well, that's also very Dan coded. So all of our answers make sense for who we are. And none of us said Arrival. I do love Arrival, too, though. It's who we are. Like, Dan's going to do the musical theater. I'm going to do the sci-fi. That's what's happening. I'm doing the depressed. I don't know. You're doing the auteur movie. Yeah.

My guess is, as I pulled the results here, the MVP film community did arrive also. Probably. Let's see. Let's see what they did. It's a good movie. Great movie. The top 10. Here's the order. Number 10, Julie and Julia. I enjoy that movie a lot. It's fun. It just makes me sad when everyone says that her parts are the worst parts of that movie. You're going against Meryl Streep. Number nine.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. American Hustle. Team Amy. I am Team Amy. Fun movie. Number eight, The Fighter. Also a good movie. I like The Fighter. Yeah, good movie. Number seven. This is a movie I really want to revisit because I want to see how I feel about it now, this removed from it. Nocturnal Animals. Oh, really?

I really liked it when I first saw it, so I'm nervous to rewatch it. Same. I did not. I was like, ooh, she's learning a lesson. I'm pro Tom Ford needs to make another feature film. Absolutely, but I just did not like that one. Like, where is this man? He just made two films and then fucked off back to fashion. Her dresses were phenomenal in there, though. She did look amazing in that movie, yeah. Yeah.

Number six, Doubt. Great film. Great performance. Great writing. Number five, Catch Me If You Can. Yes. I love Catch Me If You Can. I don't know anybody who doesn't like Catch Me If You Can. Right? Number four, The Master. Mm-hmm. All-timer performances. I love that film. I truly love that film. Number three is Her. Her.

Yes. Number two is Enchanted. Wow. And number one, as expected, Arrival. Makes sense. Great movie. Again, no one was doing it like her in the 2010s. Truly. All right. And now for this week's poll, we are moving from one actress to another.

guys for the release of maria on netflix tell us which is your favorite angelina jolie performance i'm gonna say it maria is my favorite oh i am gonna agree with you dan and i'm gonna do a really good uh double feature for it mine's gia oh jeez i love that it's such great in gia the trajectory and the arc that that

How do we feel about her Oscar win for Girl Interrupted?

I think at the time it made a lot of sense. Like she was obviously going to be a star after that movie. I'm a girl of my generation, so I fucking love that movie. Sure. I get that. I think the movie is good. I don't think it's good. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think she is great for the time. And now I just I just don't think that the Academy would reward this same performance today.

I don't know. Well, Girl in Trump, it's also interesting because it's very easy to argue that she is not even the best supporting performance in that movie. Fair. You have Brittany Murphy doing that, and it's an incredible cast all around, really.

She was also like everywhere during the late 90s. You know, so like, for example, like Gia was what the year before and then she did this and then she was Tomb Raider. Like there's like she was everywhere. Yeah, it's a really big, showy, flashy part.

And she was she stole the movie for a lot of people and she was very obviously going to be the next big thing. It was it was clear to anyone who saw that when it was released, you know. So, of course, she won the Oscar. Billy Bob Thornton thought so as well.

Oh, God. I mean, let's not go back there. Oh, Lauren. Again, I'm a girl of my generation. Like, what don't you guys get? You are like, yeah, yeah.

A lot of the youths don't understand, like, the chokehold this woman had on us in, like, the early 2000s, late 90s. And, like, bisexual punk Angie was the coolest chick ever. Y'all don't understand the vials of blood. You know, like, you have not been around. And I'm sorry, like, teenage angst in me. I was like, cool chick. Like, those were just cool. All right, guys.

So that is this week's poll. Head on over to the polls page and nextbestpicture.com. Cast a vote. Let us know which is your favorite Angelina Jolie performance. And check out Maria, which is going to be available to stream on Netflix on December 11th. And now we head on over to questions from the MVP film community. Let's see what they had to ask us this week.

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Robert Doherty asks, a few pundits have put Hard Troops higher up in the Best Picture bubble after National Board of Review. If it slips into Globe's drama or even overperforms a critic's choice, should we start taking it more seriously as a bubble film? If it gets into Golden Globe? Yeah. Yeah, I think, you know, nobody's expecting it to crack a picture lineup right now. So if it did, you have to. You can't deny that.

Jack Murphy, given how both of them have performed so far very early on in the season, if you were a 24 and had limited funds, would you put more weight into campaigning the brutalists or sing sang the brutalist sing sing? I'm going to say the brutalist because I think the brutalist I think the brutalist gains a little bit more emotional connection and resonance in a post election world right now.

But I mean, I can also make the argument for Sing Sing towards that too. Don't get me wrong. But The Brutalist is the bigger scope film, which the Academy tends to gravitate more often towards than the smaller, more intimate scope of Sing Sing. Exactly, which is why I don't think it needs the extra money. Okay. Okay. That's a good argument too. Because they're already in the tank for it. Yeah. Yeah.

I mean, I would give both of them still an equal shot at potentially winning Best Picture, honestly. It's not the question. I know, I know. Look, we can have a problem with how the question is phrased all we want. Jacob Loves Film wants to know, which film do you think will get double acting noms in supporting this year? I mean, the easy one is like Amelia Perez has a good shot. Yeah. Anora has a shot. Mm-hmm.

does a complete unknown have a shot now after NBR? I would be a little shocked if it did, to be honest with you. But how about this though? How about one in supporting actress, one in supporting actor? I mean, yeah, maybe. Yeah. Why not? One Carlos Ollano. Can you see Amelia Perez losing international feature? Yeah.

Even if it's the only international film nominated in picture. No, if it is the only film international film nominated in picture, then no, no way. It's not losing on less. The one that wins happens to have director and screenplay nominations, which is a scenario that I could see playing out for the secret fake. I know people like want to say, well, if you have an in director, you need to predict it for picture. Um,

I don't know if I succumb to that idea as much as some other people do. But at the same time, like at this point, I am in agreeance with it. I just think that we're at a stage right now where that stat is going to break at some point in the expanded era. Mm-hmm. Sure. Jeffrey Care wants to know what possible Golden Globe snub could you see being a sign of weakness for a contender throughout the rest of the season? Kind of like the color purple missing comedy musical last year.

Saoirse Ronan. Yep, that's definitely one. A part of me does want to say Selena Gomez for Amelia Perez because I think she's going to be there for Only Murderers as well. So if one of the Amelia Perez girls can miss, it's her.

Nickel Boys, as I said earlier. Yeah. That might start a very, very unfortunate trend. I hope not, but, you know. And then, you know, I got to throw this one out there. I don't think this is actually really going to happen. I want to be very clear about this. But if the substance were to miss comedy musical picture. Oh, yeah. I think that would just be the death nail. Yeah. And I don't think it's going to happen, to be clear. But if it did.

It's picture chances are gone. You know, there's a couple of other films that I think are on life support tomorrow, like Blitz, Gladiator 2, September 5, Saturday Night, another one like they they need in order to keep their chances alive. They would need to show up tomorrow. And if they don't, then I don't see how they rally back. I would agree with that. Scott Boyes, how do you feel about the first eight minutes being released for Craven the Hunter and Lord of the Rings, War of the Rohirrim?

I don't like it. If it gets people into theaters, by all means, by all means. Peter Rabbit's awards buzz. Do you guys think that Wicked will get the same faith like La La Land at the Oscars? Especially many predicted that this is best picture front runner right now. And the second Trump presidential look like to be blocking Wicked's victory path. I don't, I'm trying to make sense of the way this is worded. Um,

I think what they are implying is Wicked will look like it's going to win Best Picture, but then a Trump presidency creates support for something else, right? I think that's what they're basically saying. Yeah, that's what it sounds like. I don't know. I don't think...

I don't think it's getting 11 plus nominations. No. I don't think it's getting the record. That's part of the question. That's the thing. Because La La Land was really the front runner in terms of just the nomination hall. It got nominated everywhere. Yeah.

And I don't think Wicked is going to do that well. I think Wicked is going to do well. I think it's very possible that it hits double-digit nominations, but I don't think it's going to be the running away highest nominated film. S2S Movie Reviews. Is this the year Diane Warren finally gets her competitive Oscar and a Tyler Perry movie gets an Oscar nomination? You know what?

With her, you never say never. No, that is very true. That's the thing. Like. Tyler Perry movie getting its first Oscar nomination, it being for a Diane Warren song. It's like. That honestly makes sense. Yeah, honestly. Has anyone seen The Six Triple Weight? No. I'm seeing it this week. Ryan Rabideau wants to know, do you think this is a season where critics will be all over the place when it comes to Best Picture?

And then we get more clarity when the industry awards chime in. Honestly, yes. Yeah, I think they're going to be everywhere. I really do. I don't see one film winning everything. Not like last year. Which does make it fun for us. Although I could see like if...

The same like if the brutalist does win the trifecta, I think there's a lot larger possibility that we see that also happen when the regionals start announcing their winners. Because if one movie does start to gain steam, critics awards do tend to enjoy piling on to that love. Casey wants to know, how do you feel about Timothee Chalamet's chances to win Best Actor given a complete unknowns showing this past week?

Really good. It's between him and Brody. I will say my father did send me the trailer for it and said that he can't wait and he thinks the Dune boy is going to win. So that's what that was a quote. So that is like the normies consensus right now.

I just really feel that Adrian Brody is by far like so far ahead of literally everybody else in that category. But at the same time, when it comes to the critics, sure. I could see the success of Dune and potential success of this movie. Yeah. Like I, I see the vision. I mean, that's the other thing that Lauren, you know, kind of said the quiet part out loud is that like he also had Dune this year and he's really good in that movie too. Yeah.

They want to give it to the body of work. Watch out. In Yari too, or at cool dude underscore today. Do you think John M. Chu could be the Greta Gerwig of this year? Yes. Yes. In terms of like getting in everywhere and then missing the Oscar? I mean, she didn't get in everywhere, but like basically, yes. I mean, he'll get DGA. He'll get CCA. He'll get Globe. I'm convinced of this.

I don't think he gets the nomination for the Oscar. I said it earlier. I completely think that that's exactly what's going to happen. He is Greta Gerwig or John Krasinski or he's he's James Cameron for Avatar the way of water, not for Avatar. Also, too, this is something that somebody pointed out to me. Well, James Cameron did get nominated for Avatar. And I was like, well, that was also a very different Academy back then.

Mm hmm. Very different film, very different type of direction. Yep. And Avatar was a was man invented a different type of filmmaking. I hate to say this to you, Dan, but Wicked is a potential winner. Well, I know. But like when Avatar, the second it announced, it was immediate. Like people were announcing this is the greatest, like serious critics, like the best films in Star Wars, like everything.

Wicked has gotten really good reviews and positive word of mouth, but it wasn't quite at the level that Avatar was, I would say. The man shifted filmmaking with that movie. Yeah, it was truly... So you can really compare it to James Cameron directing Avatar in certain ways like that. Josie DeMarco, in honor of Flo, what are some of your favorite cinematic cats? I mean...

Does Sully and Monsters Inc. count? Kitty. Kitty. That's funny. I don't know why, but I just thought of Oliver from Oliver and Company. Yes. Mr. Bigglesworth from Austin Powers comes to mind. Yes.

What else can I think of? What else can I think of? Cats, cats, cats. Not that cats. No, I'm a dog person. The cat in Aliens? Yes. Yes. Good cat. Good cat. What's his name from Hocus Pocus? Oh, oh, oh, I should know this. Binx? Maybe. Oh, I'm like, I'm a bad person of my generation.

Keanu from Keanu. I was going to say, yeah. Cutest kitty on film ever. The cat from The Mummy. Like the white cat that just like kisses at him. Oh my God. Inside Llewyn Davis's cat. Yes. That is enough. I know there's got to be another one here that like I'm also like, oh, Pet Sematary comes to mind. Movie scarred me as a kid. Could never forget that. All right. And we're coming to the end here, guys.

Final questions. Charlie767 asks, will the industry save Blitz considering that so far critics groups have largely ignored it? I don't think so. I have been...

Probably the person who is the most convinced that Blitz is going to do well with the Academy so far this season. And this week I finally took it out of my picture predictions. Finally. Because something had to give in Best Picture because Wicked is clearly getting nominated. And I still think that Blitz could make it in, but...

I don't know. There's very, very little buzz for that movie. You don't want to just say, hey, Matt, you were right. No, no, you don't want to do that. That's OK. It's I'll let it go. I will if it doesn't get nominated. I still think there's a chance. I'm just saying that I finally took it out, even though I still think it could happen. That's fair. That's fair. All right. Final question, because it is the season from Howdy Kyle.

What's your favorite Christmas song? And can you recommend an underrated Christmas movie? I consider The Matrix Resurrection a Christmas movie. Awesome. And I love it. It's one of my favorite Christmas movies. So I recommend that. I love that so much. Thank you. I'm going to say my favorite Christmas song. Well, look.

Shout out to the Hanukkah song. Yes. Because Adam Sandler is a genius and I am Jewish. So I got to give a shout out where I can. But genuinely have yourself a merry little Christmas and meet me in St. Louis. That says Christmas to me. I've been pretty addicted to the Michael Buble Christmas sweater song since I heard it two or three years ago.

What was that movie? Silent Night was the movie I remember hearing it in. And ever since then, it's now gone on to become like one of my favorite Christmas songs. I love it. Silent Night. Good movie. Yeah. And of course, I got to give a shout out to Mariah Carey. The Queen. Underrated Christmas movie. Anna and the Apocalypse. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Oh, I love that movie so much. Yeah. Oh, pretty good.

Very fun songs. So such good songs. And I love the Tim Allen Santa Claus movies. Oh, that man. Instant nostalgia for my childhood. Yeah. I wanted to be an elf so badly. It was wild to watch the Santa Claus. I remember last year at home with my family during the holidays and

And then look at David Krumholz and be like, I literally just saw this man. Talk about like, to bring it back to Angelina Jolie with Maria. So when I first saw Gia, it like pulled me out because I was like, why is she making out with Mrs. Claus? I totally didn't understand that at the time. And I was like, what are we doing? Yeah.

All right, guys. Well, that'll do it here for episode 420 of the Next Best Picture podcast. Thank you all for sending in your questions as always.

Lauren LaMagna, tell everyone that's listening right now where they can find you on the internet. You guys can find me on the Twitter and Blue Sky at Lauren LaMango. Dan Baer. You can find me on Twitter at DansonDan on film, on Blue Sky, and Letterboxd at DansonDan. And you can find me at Next Best Picture. Thank you so much, everyone, for listening to the Next Best Picture podcast. We are proud to be part of the Evergreen Podcast Network, and you can subscribe to us anywhere where you subscribe to podcasts.

Be sure to leave us a review on Apple podcasts or on Spotify and let us know what you think of the show. We really appreciate your feedback and your support, which you can also lend on over at Patreon for $1 minimum a month. You'll get some exclusive podcast content from us, including ad free episodes. Uh,

This month we will be having reviews for Walk the Line to get us ready for Complete Unknown. And we're trying to squeeze in the Todd Haynes film. I'm not there. I don't know if we're going to be able to fit it in. The podcast schedule is pretty freaking crazy this month. But, hey, we're trying to do as much Bob Dylan content as we possibly can here. So thank you all so much for listening as always. And we will see you all next time. ♪♪♪

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