cover of episode WTO Negotiations, life inside State Department, and the peak of American unipolarity — with Susan Shirk

WTO Negotiations, life inside State Department, and the peak of American unipolarity — with Susan Shirk

2024/12/5
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Susan Shirk详细描述了她从学术界进入克林顿政府,参与对华政策制定的经历。她从担任加州大学全球冲突与合作研究所所长开始,逐步参与到国防政策委员会,最终成为国务院负责对华关系的副助理国务卿。她回顾了在克林顿政府期间,美国对华政策的重点,包括核不扩散、人权和贸易。在核不扩散方面,她认为美国取得了显著的成功,促使中国改变了其对外政策行为。然而,在人权方面,她认为美国所做的努力收效甚微,人权的改善需要来自中国的内部需求。在贸易方面,她认为中国加入WTO是推动中美贸易关系发展的重要因素,但克林顿政府对中国加入WTO后政治变革的预期过于乐观。她还详细描述了中国加入WTO谈判的内幕,包括克林顿政府内部的权力博弈,以及与中国谈判代表的交锋。她认为,虽然美国在谈判中做出了让步,但这对美国来说仍然是一笔划算的交易,因为美国获得了比中国更多的经济机会。最后,她总结了克林顿政府对华政策的总体战略,即通过接触和合作,促进中国的和平发展,并降低中美之间潜在的冲突风险。 主持人Leo引导Susan Shirk讲述了她从学术界到政府部门的职业转变,以及她在克林顿政府期间参与对华政策制定的经历。访谈涵盖了多个方面,包括她如何进入政府部门、她在国务院的日常工作、克林顿政府对华政策的重点领域(核不扩散、人权和贸易)、以及中国加入WTO谈判的内幕。访谈中,Shirk分享了她对美国对华政策的看法,以及她对中国政治和国际关系的深刻见解。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Susan Shirk decide to join the Clinton administration?

She was offered the position of Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, which she felt was a manageable role focused solely on China, unlike a broader regional role.

What was Susan Shirk's primary goal when she joined the Clinton administration?

To improve relations between the US and China and to align China's foreign policy behavior more closely with the global order, particularly in areas of non-proliferation, human rights, and trade.

How did Susan Shirk feel about the human rights efforts during her time in the Clinton administration?

She felt discouraged, believing that external pressure had little impact on internal human rights improvements in China, which had to come from internal demand.

What significant event in US-China relations occurred during Susan Shirk's tenure in the Clinton administration?

The negotiation and eventual signing of China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), which was a major diplomatic achievement despite significant domestic political challenges.

Why did President Clinton initially decide not to sign the WTO deal with China during Zhu Rongji's visit?

Domestic policy advisors recommended delaying the signing to avoid the perception of rushing the deal and making excessive compromises, which could harm its Congressional approval.

How did the relationship between the State Department and the National Security Council (NSC) impact Susan Shirk's work?

The NSC hoarded information and treated the State Department as their staff, which was frustrating and hindered effective interagency coordination.

What was Susan Shirk's view on the impact of China's WTO accession on its economic and political development?

She believed it was not a bad thing to help China attract more foreign investment and that the goal should be to induce China to behave responsibly rather than slowing its growth.

How did Susan Shirk describe her first day at the State Department?

She was worried about adapting to a hierarchical structure and having a boss for the first time, but found her immediate boss, Stanley Roth, to be respectful and supportive.

What was Susan Shirk's typical day like during her time at the State Department?

It involved dealing with press guidance, attending meetings, coordinating with various agencies, and engaging with Chinese diplomats, including weekly lunches with the DCM at the Chinese Embassy.

Why did Susan Shirk feel that the WTO negotiations were a significant achievement?

Despite challenges, the deal was seen as beneficial for both countries, opening up economic opportunities for the US and helping China attract foreign investment, which she believed was a positive step.

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of Peking Hotel, China scholar Susan Shirk discusses how she joined the Clinton administration, negotiated the WTO deal, and lost faith in the U.S. ability to improve human rights in China. Get full access to Peking Hotel at pekinghotel.substack.com/subscribe)