cover of episode DOP 294: Looking Back on Our 2024 Predictions

DOP 294: Looking Back on Our 2024 Predictions

2024/12/18
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Darren Pope和Victor Farsen回顾了他们在2023年做出的2024年技术预测,涵盖了AI、平台工程、本地部署和WebAssembly等领域。他们对AI领域的一些预测较为准确,例如AI投资的增长和本地运行AI模型的发展。然而,他们对平台工程完全取代Kubernetes的交互方式、完全自托管的本地部署成为主流以及WebAssembly成为常见工作负载类型的预测则不够准确。他们认为,虽然Kubernetes和云原生技术的热潮已过,但其重要性并未下降。在AI领域,巨额投资将迅速带来回报,大型公司可能会出于数据安全和成本控制的考虑从云端迁移到本地部署,但需要大量投资和人力。小型初创公司则可以选择更经济的云服务或本地部署方案,并应专注于业务发展而非基础设施建设。他们还讨论了IBM收购HashiCorp这一意外事件以及2024年科技行业对AI的关注。 Darren Pope和Victor Farsen对2024年的技术发展趋势进行了深入分析,并对之前的预测进行了总结和反思。他们认为,AI领域的预测相对准确,尤其是在AI投资和本地运行模型方面。然而,在平台工程、本地部署和WebAssembly方面,预测结果与实际情况存在偏差。他们指出,平台工程虽然在Kubernetes领域占据重要地位,但并未完全取代Kubernetes的交互方式。本地部署的趋势有所增长,但并未成为主流,大型公司可能会出于安全和成本考虑进行本地部署,但需要付出高昂的代价。WebAssembly则并未达到预期的发展水平。总的来说,他们认为2024年的技术发展主要集中在AI领域,其他领域需要证明其盈利能力。他们还强调了初创公司应专注于业务发展而非基础设施建设的重要性。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why didn't AI assistants displace jobs in 2024?

AI assistants primarily helped people rather than displacing jobs. While there may have been some impact due to lack of skills with AI, no one was fired directly because of AI in 2024.

Did the explosion of AI certifications happen in 2024?

It's unclear if there was an explosion of AI certifications, but the demand for AI-related books suggests a growing interest, which likely extended to certifications as well.

Why is AI the most lucrative area in 2024?

AI is the most lucrative area because of the massive investment and rapid changes in the field. The constant evolution of models and the high demand for AI-related content make it a profitable focus.

What is the current state of platform engineering within Kubernetes?

Platform engineering is the dominant focus within the Kubernetes space in 2024. While Kubernetes hasn't moved to the background, the way it's interacted with has shifted towards platform engineering.

Why are some companies moving back to on-premise solutions?

Some large companies are moving back to on-premise solutions because they understand the cloud better and believe they can achieve a higher return on investment by managing their own infrastructure.

What is the outlook for WASM in 2024?

WASM struggled in 2024, with no clear use cases emerging. It remains a niche technology, and its relevance is questionable as AI dominates the tech landscape.

What unexpected event happened in the tech industry in 2024?

One unexpected event was IBM's acquisition of HashiCorp, which was surprising given HashiCorp's recent public listing. This move was not anticipated by many in the industry.

How did the tech investment landscape change in 2024?

Tech investment in 2024 was heavily focused on AI, with other areas needing to prove their profitability. IPOs and Series A funding were scarce, except for a few notable exceptions like Klaviyo and Laravel.

Shownotes Transcript

#294: Here we are at the end of 2024. Darin and Viktor look back at the predictions they made back in episode 244.

Let's see how they did.

 

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