China's Nuclear Arsenal is Growing
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Today, China expands its nuclear arsenal, Brazil's currency hits a record low against the dollar, and the US government faces a partial shutdown after Trump's intervention. From TLDR News, this is your daily briefing for Thursday 19th December 2024.

China's nuclear warhead arsenal has surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads, according to the Pentagon's latest China Military Power Report, representing an increase of 20% in a year and a near tripling since 2020.

The Pentagon says that China will probably continue to modernise, diversify and expand its nuclear forces rapidly, will have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030 and will continue growing its force through at least 2035. While China's growing nuclear arsenal is certainly expanding pretty rapidly, it's still dwarfed by the arsenals of the United States and Russia, who each have more than 5,500 nuclear warheads.

with roughly 1,500 deployed each. In fact, in total, the US and Russia possess nearly 90% of the world's nuclear warheads. The Pentagon's report also assesses the progress of the Chinese military, the People's Liberation Army, or PLA, in its modernization and reform efforts.

Despite its progress, the report says the force still has significant deficiencies, including in commander proficiency, long-distance logistics and urban warfare. The PLA is in the midst of a new anti-corruption purge carried out by the Chinese government beginning in 2023. Between July and December 2023, at least 15 high-ranking military officers and defence industry executives were removed from their posts, according to Pentagon Analysis.

This includes the removal of then-Defence Minister Li Shang-fu. There's more on the way, but remember to subscribe and ring the bell for more Daily Briefing tomorrow. Plus, if you want to support the channel like Diego Bias, then consider joining the TLDR Daily Membership Programme for just £1.99.

In economic news, Brazil's currency crash is adding fiscal reform pressure to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, commonly known as Lula, whose left-wing government is attempting to push through cost savings after its tax and spend policies prompted resistance from business leaders. This week, Brazil's currency, the real, has fallen almost 2%, touching a record low of 6.21 against the dollar on Tuesday.

This means its year-to-date decline has reached 21%, making it the worst performer of 2024 in JP Morgan's Emerging Markets Currency Index.

To try and prop up the real, on Tuesday, Brazil's central bank, the BCB, took emergency measures and sold off more than $3 million in back-to-back operations, its third consecutive day of currency trading. For context, investors have been concerned by Lula's stimulus measures and rising levels of government debt, which is close to 10% of GDP, which economists say risks pushing public debt to unsustainable levels.

While Lula's measures have boosted growth, they've also contributed to higher levels of inflation. In response, the BCB has increased borrowing costs, lifting its main interest rates by a bigger-than-expected 1 percentage point last week. Policymakers have also hinted at continued interest rate hikes in 2025, which economists say may help protect the real by encouraging foreign investment, but will also cool demand and deliver short-term economic pain across Brazil.

President-elect Donald Trump has sent Washington D.C. into panic mode by delivering a likely death blow to a bipartisan budget plan just days ahead of a potential Christmastime government shutdown. The bipartisan bill would fund government agencies at current levels and provide $100 billion for disaster relief and $10 billion in farm aid, as well as a range of unrelated provisions like a pay rise for lawmakers.

On Wednesday, billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk tapped ahead the Department of Government Efficiency, jumped into the debate and stirred up outrage at the bill, with a torrent of posts to his more than 200 million followers on X, writing, among other things, stop the steal of your tax dollars, urging his followers to call lawmakers to oppose the bill, and said those that vote for the funding bill should lose re-election.

Donald Trump later issued a joint statement with his vice president-elect, J.D. Vance, opposing the current bill and saying that a streamlined stopgap bill, quote, without Democrat giveaways should be passed, adding, anything else is a betrayal of our country. Trump also demanded that the bill raise the debt ceiling, which would give him more room for spending and tax cuts when he comes into office.

However, with the House narrowly controlled by Republicans and the Senate narrowly controlled by Democrats, a bill without Democratic support cannot pass. Trump's intervention is probably most difficult for Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, who negotiated the bill, but now looks in a shaky position ahead of the speakership vote on January 3rd.

Trump's political brinkmanship, Musk's significant influence and tensions between Congress and Trump are perhaps a sign of things to come for Trump's incoming administration. Moving to the UK now, where the Bank of England has released more inflation data, showing that it is once again rising. The latest data showed that the figure had risen to 2.6% in November, up from 2.3% in October.

The big implication of this is that the Bank of England will not lower interest rates this week, with them likely to hold them at 4.75%. This follows two interest rate cuts this year. It seems that one of the biggest drivers of inflation was transport, with the price of a litre of petrol up by 0.8p. This news has caused consternation among economists and politicians, with numerous outlets suggesting that Starmer is on track to miss his milestone for the economy.

Ian Stewart, an economist at Deloitte, explained that the big declines in inflation are behind us. Next year, inflation is likely to run closer to 3% than to its 2% target. Wage growth of over 5% and a surge in government spending could keep inflation higher for longer.

Moving to Israel now, where the Human Rights Watch, or HRW, has accused Israel of an act of genocide over their restriction of the water supply in Gaza. The HRW has accused Israel of deliberate actions that were intended to cut off the availability of clean water so drastically that the population has had to resort to contaminated sources. They claim that this has led to the outbreak of lethal diseases, especially amongst children.

Therefore, the HRW has argued that Israel's actions is tantamount to an act of genocide. This report comes on the back of an Amnesty International report that was published earlier this month that also accused Israel of an act of genocide. Israel has previously rejected any such accusations, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calling them false and outrageous.

This is just one of many major stories going on, with 2024 marking a major year for both news and elections. In fact, with the majority of the world heading to the polls, 2024 has been a pretty unique and important year. So in the latest issue of our magazine Too Long, we discuss these elections, diving deep into the 29 biggest elections of the year, making sure you understand what really happened, and commemorating one of the biggest years in news.

We don't just discuss elections, though. We also run through China's trade issues, Biden's successes and failures, the UK's new opposition leader, and the state of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Plus, the fact it's a magazine also means we're not constrained by the time limits or algorithms imposed by YouTube.

Unlike fleeting news cycles and algorithmic feeds, TooLong offers thought-provoking analysis and comprehensive coverage that's truly worth holding. Purchasing is also a great way to support the channel. Running TLDR this year has cost just under £800,000, so if you've enjoyed our coverage in 2024, then picking up a copy of TooLong doesn't just get you high-quality reporting, it also allows you to invest in independent journalism.

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