cover of episode PRC Leadership Decisionmaking: A Conversation with Mr. Jon Czin

PRC Leadership Decisionmaking: A Conversation with Mr. Jon Czin

2024/10/31
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Jon Czin
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Bonnie Lin 指出,美国对中国政治,特别是精英政治的研究领域存在人才减少、活力下降和公共讨论质量下降等问题。她对当前美国对华政治分析的现状表示担忧。 Jon Czin 承认许多学者为理解中国政治做出了贡献,但他对该领域人才减少和活力下降表示担忧,认为对中国政治的理解质量下降。他认为,在习近平上台前,对中国政治的研究忽视了关键方面,未能预测习近平的权力集中。未能预测和解释习近平上台,是一种情报失败。许多观察者对中国政治的理解不完整,未能预测习近平的崛起,部分原因是将胡锦涛时代视为中国政治制度化的标志。美国研究中国政治领域人才减少的原因包括:研究难度大、政治学研究方法不适用、该领域在学术界不受重视。他认为研究中国政治更偏向人文主义而非社会科学,试图从习近平的角度理解问题。研究中国政治需要仔细阅读领导人的讲话,并理解其背后的语境。通过观察中国政治日程安排的变化,可以洞察习近平的权力和优先事项。 Jon Czin 对习近平的评价是:习近平与胡锦涛相比,权力更加集中,决策风格更加果断。习近平的领导风格是敢于冒险,善于把握时机。习近平与前任领导人的区别在于其独特的经历和冒险精神,他亲身经历了文化大革命,这塑造了他的政治观点和决策风格。习近平的决策动机是忠于党,并将其视为实现中国现代化和成为超级大国的工具。习近平早期集中权力,后期可能更倾向于授权。习近平大部分时间专注于国内政治,尤其关注党内事务,美国是中国的首要外交政策优先事项。习近平关注党内纪律问题和腐败问题,对经济问题的关注程度可能低于外界预期。中国国内政治与外交政策之间的联系在全球金融危机后加强,但目前联系较弱。未来10-20年,中国将继续保持挑战美国的能力和意愿。中国已经成为一个主要大国,其影响力将持续存在。中国可能认为美国已经过了巅峰时期,并预期未来与美国的竞争将加剧。中国在过去一年中采取了一些缓和对美关系的措施,但这可能是暂时的策略。习近平预计将与下一任美国总统进行直接对话。

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Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Jon Czin joins us to discuss domestic dynamics and leadership decisionmaking within the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC). Mr. Czin discusses what is currently missing in the conversation within the United States on Chinese politics and the fact that many analysts failed to predict the scope and concentration of power that President Xi Jinping would be able to garner. He describes his humanistic approach to studying decisionmaking by Chinese leadership, attempting to look at issues through the eyes of Xi Jinping and the context within China in which Xi makes these decisions. Mr. Czin discusses his impression of Xi Jinping and both how and why he is vastly different from his predecessors, using Xi’s unique past as a primary reason for his style of leadership. He speaks to Xi’s focus on domestic and party issues, such as widespread corruption, and discusses what he sees as the limited connection that exists currently between China’s internal dynamics and its foreign policy. Mr. Czin shares his assessment that China has arrived as a defining force in the geopolitical environment and in 10 to 20 years China will continue to have the capacity and the will to be a formidable rival to the United States. Finally, he discusses what he sees as China’s view of the United State’s internal dynamics and the upcoming presidential election.

Mr. Jonathan A. Czin is the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings Institution and a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center. He is a former member of the Senior Analytic Service at CIA, where he was one of the intelligence community’s top China experts. Jon led the intelligence community’s analysis of Chinese politics and policymaking, playing a central role in assessing and briefing senior policymakers on President Xi Jinping, his rise to power, and decisionmaking on an array of key issues and crises. From 2021 till 2023, he was director for China at the National Security Council, where he advised on, staffed, and coordinated White House and inter-agency diplomacy with the People’s Republic of China, including all of President Biden’s interactions with President Xi, and played a leading role in addressing a wide range of global China issues. He also served as advisor for Asia-Pacific security affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and overseas at a CIA field station in Southeast Asia. He holds a master’s in international relations from Yale University, graduated magna cum laude from Haverford College, and studied at Oxford University. He is proficient in Mandarin Chinese.