cover of episode How Russia Views China: A Conversation with Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor

How Russia Views China: A Conversation with Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor

2024/9/26
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Andrea Kendall-Taylor
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Bonnie Lin
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Andrea Kendall-Taylor认为,俄罗斯与中国加强关系,是出于对美国及其盟友的长期对抗的准备,以及对乌克兰战争中军事和经济支持的需求。俄罗斯希望通过与中国进行军事演习等行动,来展示其实力,迫使西方让步,并表明自己并非孤立无援。她还指出,俄中两国在将美国视为主要威胁的评估上达成一致,这构成了他们关系的动力。尽管两国在某些问题上存在分歧,但共同对抗西方的目标使他们能够忽视这些分歧。 她进一步分析了中国对俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中的支持,指出中国一直是俄罗斯的关键生命线,为其提供西方制裁和出口管制所切断的技术和物资。她还讨论了有关中国向俄罗斯提供致命援助的报道,并指出如果中国越过向俄罗斯提供致命援助的红线,美国将采取严厉措施。她认为,俄罗斯为了维持中国等支持者的支持,可能会提供越来越先进的技术,例如潜艇、航空和导弹技术。她还指出,许多此类交易可能发生在公众视野之外。 关于乌克兰,Kendall-Taylor认为,乌克兰对中国在结束战争中发挥建设性作用的期望是不切实际的,因为中国的立场明显偏向莫斯科。她认为,中国不太可能对俄罗斯施加压力,迫使其做出违背其核心国家安全利益的让步。她还讨论了俄罗斯关于可能与中国联合对抗共同威胁的声明,认为这些声明旨在展示实力,但这种联合不太可能发生,因为两国军队缺乏互操作性。 最后,她认为美国几乎没有手段来破坏俄中关系,因为两国有能力将分歧隔离开来。她建议美国应该关注如何应对俄中关系深化可能带来的负面影响,例如准备应对两线作战的可能性,并与中间国家建立更密切的关系。 Bonnie Lin主要负责引导访谈,提出问题,并对Andrea Kendall-Taylor的观点进行总结和回应。她还提到了乌克兰方面试图争取中国在结束冲突中发挥作用的努力,以及有关俄罗斯面临与中国打交道时经济障碍的报道。

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Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor joins us to discuss the evolving relationship between Russia and China. Dr. Kendall-Taylor discusses the broader geopolitical factors driving Russia’s desire to strengthen ties with China. She analyzes Russia’s increasing dependence on China in the context of its war in Ukraine, and recent reports that China may be providing lethal aid to Russia. Dr. Kendall-Taylor also explores the dynamics between Putin and Xi, highlighting how their close relationship shapes the strategic coordination between the two countries. Finally, Dr. Kendall-Taylor addresses potential challenges for Europe and the United States in responding to this growing alignment.

Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor is a senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS, specializing in national security issues, particularly regarding Russia, authoritarianism, and the transatlantic alliance. She previously served as deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). She also served as a senior analyst at the CIA, focusing on Russia, autocratic regimes, and democratic decline. Outside CNAS, she is a distinguished practitioner in grand strategy at Yale’s Jackson School, and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Her work has appeared in numerous prominent journals including Journal of Peace Research, Democratization, Journal of Democracy, Foreign Affairs, The Washington Post, The Washington Quarterly, and Foreign Policy. She holds a BA from Princeton and a PhD from UCLA. Kendall-Taylor was also a Fulbright scholar in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.