cover of episode How China Might View a Second Trump Administration: A Conversation with Mr. Rick Waters

How China Might View a Second Trump Administration: A Conversation with Mr. Rick Waters

2024/11/8
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Rick Waters: 中国将特朗普第一任期的评估分为两个阶段：早期阶段是寻求交易的交易关系；2020年以后，由于特朗普对新冠疫情的愤怒，更多意识形态化的内阁成员追求对北京有重大影响的议程。从战略角度来看，中国认为美国对华共识贯穿两党，差异主要在于策略层面。中国最初的目标是与新政府建立沟通渠道，了解其具体意图。特朗普政府初期，美中对话机制精简，主要围绕外交、经济、执法等领域进行内阁级会晤，旨在支持领导人层面的外交。但该机制并未持久。2018年贸易战升级后，中方焦虑加剧。2017年，中国最初对贸易摩擦的担忧大于对人权和价值观相关问题的担忧。2020年，新冠疫情、中美之间的言语冲突以及沟通渠道的恶化加剧了中国的焦虑，导致误判。领导层沟通渠道对中美关系至关重要，只有习近平才能授权开启或维持这些渠道。中国将观察特朗普政府的举动，以判断其是想达成协议还是单方面脱钩。中国目前尚不清楚特朗普政府的目标是达成协议还是单方面脱钩，需要通过官方渠道了解。中国对特朗普政府的评估将取决于关键内阁职位人选及其对中美关系战略的解读。中国曾试图与特朗普政府在芬太尼问题上合作，但效果有限。中国对特朗普第一任期的整体评估取决于评估的时间点，早期较为乐观，后期则因国内经济挑战而变得谨慎。中国认为美两党对华战略相似，主要差异在于策略层面。中国持续通过宣传等渠道塑造美国政治体系混乱的形象，并进行网络行动，但其目的并非干预美国大选。中国关注特朗普政府的目标是达成新的协议还是单方面脱钩。中国专家主要从经济角度讨论与特朗普政府达成新协议的可能性。中国意识到其经济增长模式不可持续，并开始讨论如何应对贸易壁垒。中国对新关税的回应将取决于其对美国意图的解读，以及其自身对脱钩的准备程度。中国对美俄关系以及潜在的亚太版北约扩张感到担忧。中国认为美国不太可能将台湾问题作为交易筹码，其主要关注点在于台湾岛内的局势。共和党掌控参众两院可能导致美国取消对华永久正常贸易关系（PNTR），这将被中国视为重大的经济挫折。中国将寻求与特朗普政府建立沟通渠道，并根据美国政府的行动采取相应措施。 Bonnie Lin: 积极引导讨论，提出问题。

Deep Dive

Chapters
China viewed Trump's first term in two phases: an initial transactional period focused on deals, followed by a period marked by increased ideological clashes and actions from the cabinet after the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite initial expectations of a Biden reset, China now sees a bipartisan US consensus on China, with differences being mainly tactical.
  • China viewed Trump's first term in two phases.
  • Early period focused on transactional relationship seeking a deal.
  • Post-COVID period saw more ideological agendas pursued.
  • China now views US consensus on China as extending through both parties with differences being mainly tactical.

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Rick Waters joins us to discuss what the recent U.S. presidential election results mean for China. Mr. Waters shares that China viewed President Trump’s first term as largely divided into two different phases, a more transactional phase in the first half of the administration and a second phase shaped by U.S. anger at China over Covid-19. Mr. Waters also explains that during the recent U.S. presidential election, Chinese scholars did not see large strategic differences between the Trump and Harris campaigns regarding China, and instead saw the differences as mainly tactical. Similarly, he speaks to China’s view that changes in which party controls the U.S. Congress will not cause significant changes in the overall U.S. trajectory on China, as both U.S. parties are increasingly concerned about the challenges and threats China poses. However, he notes Beijing may be concerned that a Republican dominated House and Senate may lead to the end of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China. Mr. Waters also speaks to how China may approach the new Trump administration and assesses that China is waiting to see the first moves from the United States and whether those signal that Trump is willing to bargain with Xi or if the United States will take a greater turn towards unilateral decoupling. Finally, Mr. Waters speaks to possibility of NATO expanding into the Indo-Pacific and the growing ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, and what these changing geopolitics will mean for the future of the US-China relationship.

Rick Waters is the managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice. Drawing on his decades of experience in the US foreign service, Rick leads the firm's China expertise and client offerings. His research interests include China's global and regional diplomacy, US-China relations, and China's domestic political economy. Rick joined Eurasia Group after a 27-year career as the US State Department's top China policy official, overseeing the creation of the Office of China Coordination, informally known as the China House, and concurrently serving as deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan. Rick also held multiple roles at the US embassy in Beijing—including during the period between the accidental US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and the Hainan Island incident in 2001.