cover of episode Getting China’s Defense Spending Right: A Conversation with M. Taylor Fravel, George J. Gilboy, and Eric Heginbotham

Getting China’s Defense Spending Right: A Conversation with M. Taylor Fravel, George J. Gilboy, and Eric Heginbotham

2024/10/10
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Taylor Fravel 指出，现有分析高估了中国的国防开支，主要原因在于没有对中美两国的国防开支项目进行一致的比较，以及在将人民币换算成美元时使用了不恰当的购买力平价（PPP）方法。他认为，应采用一种更透明、更精确的方法来评估中国的国防开支，该方法应明确列出所包含的项目，并使用与具体项目相对应的PPP汇率进行换算。 George Gilboy 详细解释了他们所采用的评估方法，包括纳入哪些项目（如官方预算、武警、海警、国防建设、国防研发等），以及如何进行PPP换算。他强调，进行比较时，应选择中美两国相似的国防开支类别，并使用与具体项目相对应的PPP汇率，而不是简单地使用整体经济的PPP汇率。他还指出，在某些技术和设备领域，中国的购买力平价反而低于市场汇率，这意味着中国在这些领域获得相同装备的成本更高。 Eric Heginbotham 认为，仅凭预算数字难以准确评估中国的军事优先级，但可以从有限的数据中看出一些趋势，例如中国军费开支中用于装备的比例有所上升，而用于人员的比例有所下降。这表明中国军队正变得越来越资本密集型，人力密集型减少，这与中国军队现代化的目标是一致的。他还指出，中国军事现代化是一个全面的过程，虽然中国在数量和质量上仍落后于美国，但在其周边地区仍构成重大挑战。 Bonnie Lin 总结了讨论的主要观点，并强调了准确评估中国国防开支的重要性，这对于制定有效的美国国防战略至关重要。 Taylor Fravel 认为中国国防开支主要用于应对周边地区潜在冲突，特别是台海冲突，同时也在提升其在更远距离上的作战能力，但其全球军事存在仍有限。他指出，中国国防开支的增长受到经济发展、中美关系以及中国对自身安全环境的评估等多种因素的影响。 George Gilboy 强调了经济因素的重要性，认为中国经济面临的挑战可能会限制其国防开支的增长。他还提到了中国日益强硬的地区政策所带来的地区联盟和结盟加强，这可能会对中国的国防开支规划产生影响。 Eric Heginbotham 指出，中国军事现代化是一个持续的过程，中国将继续投资于军事领域，以弥补其在某些领域的不足，例如潜艇作战、反潜作战以及某些技术领域。他预计中国的国防开支将继续增长，但增速可能放缓。 Taylor Fravel, George Gilboy 和 Eric Heginbotham 都强调了准确评估中国国防开支的重要性，并指出现有分析中存在许多缺陷。他们认为，应采用一种更透明、更精确的方法来评估中国的国防开支，并对中美两国的国防开支进行更合理的比较。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter discusses the challenges in accurately estimating China's defense spending, highlighting discrepancies between official figures and other estimates. The experts explain the need for an apples-to-apples comparison by using purchasing power parity and including similar line items for both China and the US.
  • Estimates of China's defense spending vary greatly, with some suggesting it's approaching US levels.
  • The experts challenge these high-end figures, suggesting a more accurate estimate is around $474 billion.
  • They emphasize the importance of comparing like-for-like items and using appropriate exchange rates for accurate comparison.

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Taylor Fravel, Dr. George Gilboy, and Dr. Eric Heginbotham join us to discuss their recent article) assessing China's defense budget. They challenge widely cited figures that estimate China's defense spending at $700 billion and provide an apples-to-apples analysis based on purchasing power parity. They assess China's defense spending is around $470 billion, about one-third of the U.S. defense budget, and detail what categories they included and excluded. The conversation explores the analytical shortcomings of current estimates, emphasizing the need for appropriate exchange rates and like-for-like item comparisons between China's and the U.S.'s defense budgets. They also discuss China's military priorities and modernization efforts and key factors that may determine the future trajectory of Chinese defense spending.  

 Dr. M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the Security Studies Program at MIT, specializing in international security with a focus on China and East Asia. He is the author of Strong Borders, Secure Nation and Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949, with numerous publications in leading journals like International Security and Foreign Affairs. A Rhodes Scholar and Andrew Carnegie Fellow, he holds degrees from Middlebury, Stanford, LSE, and Oxford. Fravel also serves on the board of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and leads the Maritime Awareness Project. 

 Dr. George J. Gilboy is a senior fellow at the Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). George concurrently heads Woodside Energy’s Tokyo office. From 2013 to 2018, George was chief economist and vice president of business environment in Perth, leading Woodside’s corporate forecasting team. George lived and worked in China from 1994 to 2013 in roles with Woodside, Shell, Cambridge Energy Research, and Tsinghua University. George holds a BA from Boston College and a PhD in political economy from MIT. 

 Dr. Eric Heginbotham is a principal research scientist at MIT’s Center for International Studies and a specialist in Asian security issues. Before joining MIT, he was a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he led research projects on China, Japan, and regional security issues and regularly briefed senior military, intelligence, and political leaders. Prior to that he was a senior fellow of Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. After graduating from Swarthmore College, Heginbotham earned his PhD in political science from MIT. He is fluent in Chinese and Japanese and was a captain in the US Army Reserve.