cover of episode China’s Relations with Latin America: A Conversation with Dr. Ryan Berg

China’s Relations with Latin America: A Conversation with Dr. Ryan Berg

2024/12/5
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Ryan Berg博士认为拉丁美洲对全球具有战略意义，拥有丰富的自然资源和清洁能源，并且在全球南方中扮演着重要的民主角色。他批评美国几十年来对拉丁美洲采取战略忽视政策，导致中国在该地区的影响力日益增强。他认为，美国在拉丁美洲的政策往往侧重于消极的“不要做”的事情，缺乏积极的愿景来吸引该地区的人民。Berg博士还分析了中国在拉丁美洲的策略，指出中国试图将自己定位为互利合作的伙伴，并在经济互补性、粮食安全和商品需求等方面与拉丁美洲建立了紧密联系。他认为，习近平对拉丁美洲的关注反映了中国挑战美国影响力，并寻求经济互补性的战略意图。Berg博士将中国在拉丁美洲的活动分为三个阶段：早期经济互补、战略性贷款和“一带一路”倡议。他认为，美国虽然仍然是拉丁美洲国家首选的安全伙伴，但中国在国防和安全合作方面正在取得进展，特别是在警察培训和打击犯罪等领域。他还指出，虽然拉丁美洲国家在言辞上表示愿意与所有国家进行贸易，但普遍认为中国比美国更重视拉丁美洲的经济发展，因为中国能够快速部署资金和建设基础设施。Berg博士还讨论了COVID-19疫情对中国在拉丁美洲的公众形象造成的负面影响，以及美国的反华信息对中国形象的削弱。他认为，美国需要提供更具吸引力的替代方案，并与中国在人工智能、电信等领域展开竞争。Berg博士还分析了习近平最近对拉丁美洲的访问，认为中国通过在APEC峰会上占据中心位置以及在秘鲁启用大型港口项目，凸显了中国在该地区的影响力。他指出，美国在安全合作方面的努力虽然取得了一些成功，但其成果不如中国的基础设施建设项目那样容易量化和可见。最后，Berg博士表达了他对拉丁美洲可能永久性地转向以中国为中心的“东西方”导向的担忧，并建议美国制定切实可行的策略来应对中国日益增长的影响力，同时认识到中国将继续在拉丁美洲发挥作用。 Bonnie Lin主要负责引导访谈，提出问题，并对Ryan Berg博士的观点进行总结和补充。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Latin America important globally?

Latin America is crucial due to its abundant commodities, including minerals essential for the energy transition, and its potential as a producer and exporter of green energy. It also plays a significant role in global food security and is home to the highest number of democracies in the developing world.

Why has the U.S. historically neglected Latin America?

The U.S. has practiced strategic neglect, viewing itself as the only significant player in the region. This neglect has allowed China to become a major competitor, undermining U.S. influence.

How does China view Latin America in terms of its strategic and economic goals?

China sees Latin America as highly important for its Belt and Road Initiative and economic complementarity, particularly in securing food and commodities. President Xi Jinping is personally invested in expanding China's presence in the region.

What are the phases of China's approach to Latin America?

China's approach can be divided into three phases: initial economic complementarity, strategic lending under Xi Jinping, and the Belt and Road Initiative. A fourth phase is uncertain, focusing on smaller, more beautiful BRI projects and other initiatives like the Global Development Initiative.

How does public opinion of China in Latin America compare to the U.S.?

China had a net positive view until COVID-19, which significantly damaged its image. The U.S. has historically been the preferred partner due to cultural, linguistic, and migratory ties, but China's quick deployment of capital and infrastructure projects have made it more attractive economically.

What were the key outcomes of Xi Jinping's recent trip to Latin America?

Xi's trip included the inauguration of the Changkai port in Peru, enhancing connectivity with South America, and signing agreements with Brazil, including a loan in Renminbi to Brazil's development bank. This trip underscored China's strategic investments and overshadowed U.S. presence.

What should the U.S. do to counter China's growing influence in Latin America?

The U.S. needs a comprehensive strategy to prevent the region from shifting its orientation from north-south to east-west. This includes realistic engagement with the private sector, development finance, and security cooperation, recognizing that China cannot be entirely extricated from the region.

Chapters
Latin America is globally important due to its rich commodities, energy production capabilities, and democratic nature. However, the US has practiced strategic neglect, focusing on a negative agenda of 'don'ts' rather than presenting an attractive vision for the region's future.
  • Latin America is rich in important commodities and resources.
  • The US has practiced strategic neglect towards Latin America.
  • The US lacks an attractive vision for Latin America's future.

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Ryan Berg joins us to discuss China’s relations with Latin America. Dr. Berg discusses both Chinese and U.S. interests in the region, emphasizing that while the U.S. has tended to approach the region with “strategic neglect,” China seems to view Latin America as highly important in terms of both its strategic and economic goals. Dr. Berg explains his view that President Xi is personally invested in the region and believes it holds high economic complementarity to the Chinese economy, specifically in relation to China’s Belt and Road Imitative (BRI). Dr. Berg notes that although the U.S. is still the preferred security partner among Latin American countries, China is becoming more competitive in this space and is viewed among many countries as providing more opportunities, specifically in the economic realm. Dr. Berg also discusses the public opinion of China in Latin America, noting that China’s image has not fully recovered since its decline during COVID-19, and describes the U.S. efforts to not only warn Latin American countries of the risks of investment and economic deals with China but also the US attempt to compete with China as the preferred economic partner. Dr. Berg provides insights on President Xi’s most recent trip to the region for the APEC Leader’s Summit, specifically discussing his inauguration of a new massive port in Peru, and other ways Xi seemed to overshadow President Biden. Finally, Dr. Berg discusses some of the concerns surrounding China’s growing presence in the region and suggestions for U.S. policymakers.

Dr. Ryan C. Berg is director of the Americas Program and head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also an adjunct professor at the Catholic University of America and a course coordinator at the United States Foreign Service Institute. His research focuses on U.S.-Latin America relations, strategic competition and defense policy, authoritarian regimes, armed conflict and transnational organized crime, and trade and development issues. Previously, Dr. Berg was a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he helped lead its Latin America Studies Program, as well as visiting research fellow at the University of Oxford’s Changing Character of War Programme. Dr. Berg was a Fulbright scholar in Brazil and is a Council on Foreign Relations Term Member.