cover of episode China-North Korea Evolving Relations: A Conversation with Dr. Feng Zhang

China-North Korea Evolving Relations: A Conversation with Dr. Feng Zhang

2024/12/19
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Feng Zhang
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Bonnie Lin: 本期节目探讨了在朝鲜加强与俄罗斯关系的背景下，中朝关系的演变。中国如何看待俄朝联盟的复兴？中国是否默许了日益增长的朝俄关系？鉴于这一发展，北京对平壤的控制力还有多大？为了探讨这些问题，我们邀请到了冯张博士。冯张博士是耶鲁大学法学院蔡元培中国中心访问学者，曾任教于清华大学、默多克大学和澳大利亚国立大学。他的研究专长是中国外交政策、东亚国际关系和国际关系理论。 Bonnie Lin: 中朝关系在过去二十年中经历了起伏，但总体呈下降趋势。自2016年以来，中国加入了对朝的联合国制裁，平壤因此指责北京“卑劣行为”和“为美国伴舞”。2018年至2019年，中朝曾五次会晤以修复关系，但疫情打断了这一进程，两国间的接触尚未完全恢复。目前中朝关系再次恶化，主要原因是朝鲜与俄罗斯的密切合作。朝鲜与俄罗斯签署军事同盟条约并向俄乌战场派遣军队，这些重大战略决策将产生深远影响。朝鲜可能对中国与韩国关系改善感到不满。 Feng Zhang: 朝鲜与俄罗斯的进一步结盟，是证明中国对朝鲜影响力减弱的最佳证据。中国对朝鲜的影响力一直有限，即使在朝鲜战争期间，中朝之间也存在诸多争议。朝鲜在追求自身认为至关重要的国家利益时，往往会忽视中国。中国视自己为朝鲜半岛的大国，希望在半岛所有重要战略发展中发挥作用，并控制朝鲜的对外政策。中国首要国家安全优先事项是稳定，而非朝鲜半岛无核化。中国希望维持朝鲜半岛的最低限度稳定，并保持与朝鲜的友好关系，因为不稳定的朝鲜会给中国带来严重麻烦。不稳定的朝鲜可能对韩国采取军事行动，或导致朝鲜政权崩溃，引发难民潮，甚至可能导致美国-韩国联盟控制下的统一朝鲜半岛。对中国不友好的朝鲜可能会利用其核导弹对中国造成破坏。友好的朝鲜可以作为应对驻韩美军的战略缓冲。中国不愿对朝鲜施加过大压力，以免激怒朝鲜，并使其成为中国的敌人。朝俄关系符合联盟的定义，中国对此感到不满。朝俄合作违反了联合国宪章和国际法，这令中国尴尬。朝俄国防合作将导致半岛不稳定，中国不希望看到这种情况。中国不想被视为与俄罗斯、朝鲜和伊朗形成“动荡轴心”，这会限制其战略空间。朝俄关系对中国弊大于利，不会减轻美国对中国的战略压力。中国对朝鲜及其与俄罗斯关系的看法存在多种观点。中国目前不愿公开表明立场，既不想公开支持朝俄的不稳定政策，也不想公开反对它们。中国对朝俄抱有一定的同情，因为它们也受到美国的压力。中国两次被朝俄利用，金正恩正在效仿其祖父的做法。朝俄之间并非一个统一的集团，中国不会鼓励朝鲜的冒险主义。中国在朝鲜半岛的首要利益是稳定，但朝鲜可能因误判而采取冒险行动。稳定并非俄罗斯对外政策的首要关注点，普京更关心的是在乌克兰战争中取得好结果。中国非常重视半岛的和平与稳定，而朝鲜在中国被广泛视为混乱的根源。中国可以通过警告平壤、利用与朝鲜的沟通渠道来限制朝鲜的冒险行为。中国仍然拥有经济方面的杠杆作用，但它不愿充分利用这些杠杆，以免激怒朝鲜。朝鲜与俄罗斯关系的加强削弱了中国的影响力。北京认为这种说法带有偏见、不公平且具有敌意。这种说法可能会促使中国在对朝政策上更加谨慎。中国的一些学者和分析人士希望推动新一轮关于朝鲜的多边对话。中国对朝鲜和俄罗斯的政策走向感到担忧，希望采取行动。中国希望特朗普政府对朝鲜采取高层外交，并希望能够发挥作用，促成外交突破。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why has China's influence over North Korea diminished?

China's influence has waned due to North Korea's growing alignment with Russia, evidenced by the signing of a military alliance treaty in June and North Korea sending troops to support Russia in October. Additionally, China's participation in UN sanctions against North Korea since 2016 and the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have further strained relations.

What are China's primary objectives on the Korean Peninsula?

China aims to maintain regional stability and prevent any actions by North Korea that could threaten its national security. While denuclearization is a stated goal, stability is the top priority, as China fears a destabilized North Korea could lead to war or a unified Korea under U.S. influence.

How does China perceive North Korea's growing ties with Russia?

China views the deepening North Korea-Russia relationship with concern, as it undermines China's influence over North Korea and could lead to destabilizing consequences on the Korean Peninsula. Beijing also worries about being associated with what the West calls the 'axis of upheaval' with Russia, North Korea, and Iran.

What role could China play in preventing North Korean adventurism?

China could use its diplomatic channels to warn North Korea against taking risky actions, especially during periods of political instability in South Korea. China's primary interest is in maintaining stability on the peninsula, and it could work with South Korea to prevent any reckless moves by North Korea.

How does China's economic leverage over North Korea affect its influence?

China still holds significant economic leverage, as North Korea relies on China for about 90% of its trade and energy imports. However, China is hesitant to fully use this leverage, fearing it could antagonize North Korea and push it closer to Russia. Additionally, North Korea's growing economic ties with Russia reduce China's effectiveness in using economic pressure.

What is Beijing's reaction to the 'axis of upheaval' narrative?

Beijing views the 'axis of upheaval' narrative as biased and hostile. It does not want to be associated with North Korea, Russia, and Iran in this way, as it could narrow China's strategic space. This narrative likely encourages China to be more cautious in its policies toward these countries.

What might China's approach be during a potential second Trump administration?

China may push for a new round of multilateral dialogues on North Korea, aiming to curb its provocative behavior. While complete denuclearization may no longer be feasible, China could seek control agreements to manage North Korea's nuclear program and maintain regional stability.

Chapters
This chapter explores the current state of China-North Korea relations, highlighting the recent decline due to factors such as UN sanctions, the COVID-19 pandemic, and North Korea's closer ties with Russia. The lack of meaningful interaction between the two countries is also emphasized.
  • China joined UN sanctions against North Korea in 2016.
  • North Korea's alignment with Russia is a major factor in the strained relationship.
  • There is a significant lack of interaction between China and North Korea, including people-to-people exchanges.

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Feng Zhang joins us to discuss China-North Korea relations in light of the growing Russia-North Korea relationship and deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia. Dr. Zhang discusses how the China-North Korea relationship has suffered in recent years, in part due to China joining UN sanctions against North Korea in 2016, the COVID-19 pandemic, and North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Dr. Zhang explains that China has a waning influence over North Korea, evidenced most strongly through the recent further alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow. He notes that China still sees itself as a great power on the Korean Peninsula, striving for regional stability to ensure its own national security, but that China struggles to use its economic and diplomatic pressures on North Korea, fearing that it may antagonize Pyongyang against Beijing. Dr. Zhang notes that North Korea is widely viewed in China as an agent of chaos and Beijing does not want to be viewed as a member or leader in the “axis of upheaval” with North Korea, Russia, and Iran. Finally, given China’s rising concerns about North Korean foreign policy and growing North Korea-Russia ties, Dr. Zhang predicts Beijing will try to play a bigger role in working with the incoming Trump Administration and other regional actors to curb North Korea’s provocative behavior.

Dr. Feng Zhang is a Visiting Scholar at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center. He previously held positions at Tsinghua University, Murdoch University, and the Australian National University. He specializes in Chinese foreign policy, international relations in East Asia, and international relations theory. He is the author of Chinese Hegemony: Grand Strategy and International Institutions in East Asian History (Stanford, 2015). He co-authored two books with Richard Ned Lebow: Taming Sino-American Rivalry (Oxford, 2020) and Justice and International Order: East and West (Oxford, 2022). His new book on China’s Policy toward Afghanistan since 1949 will be published shortly. His current project examines the causes and management of U.S.-China competition.