Why Trump is the Slight Favourite Heading into the Election
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We're just a few days away from the US election, and the polls are truly within margin of error with both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on the knife edge from winning in a landslide. In this video, we're taking a look at the polls, and why, despite it all, Trump is still the slight favourite.

Harris' and Trump’s Paths to 270: https://youtu.be/k12zwybGlX8 Why Trump has (Sort of) Overtaken Harris in the Polls: https://youtu.be/CJXe8n0wyE4

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Sources:

Election models: Nate Silver’s election model: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model 538’s aggregator: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ Economist’s election model: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-harris-polls/ https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president/

Betting markets: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/ Predictit: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election Bet365 and SkyBet https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election/winner

2016 forecasts: Huffington Post: https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president Princeton: https://web.archive.org/web/20220109180314/https://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/08/final-mode-projections-clinton-323-ev-51-di-senate-seats-gop-house/

Actual results: 2016: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election 2020: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election

New York Times Comparing Poll Errors From 2022 And 2020: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/21/upshot/trump-harris-polls-election.html

Why You Shouldn’t Pay Attention To Early Voting Data (Except In Nevada) https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/please-dont-pay-much-attention-to-early-voting-numbers

Jon Ralston Nevada Early Voting data blog/forecast: https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024