Sorin Ioniță and Eto Buziashvili on the Pivotal Elections in Moldova and Georgia
2024/11/1
Russian Roulette
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Eto Buziashvili
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Sorin Ioniță
Sorin Ioniță分析了摩尔多瓦的总统选举和欧盟公投。他指出，公投结果出乎意料地接近，显示出亲欧盟派和亲克里姆林宫派之间的激烈竞争。他详细描述了俄罗斯通过金钱贿赂等方式对选举进行大规模干预的情况，并指出这种干预对选举结果产生了重大影响。他还分析了第二轮总统选举的形势，认为现任总统桑杜的胜算虽然较大，但仍面临挑战。他认为，如果亲克里姆林宫派候选人获胜，将会对该地区地缘政治格局，特别是与乌克兰的关系产生重大影响。
Eto Buziashvili讨论了格鲁吉亚的议会选举。她指出，执政党“格鲁吉亚梦想”党赢得选举，但反对派指控选举舞弊，国际社会对此也表示担忧。她详细描述了格鲁吉亚当局对她住所的突击搜查以及对她的电子设备的没收，这引发了对其言论自由的担忧。她还分析了反对派对选举舞弊的回应，指出反对派在收集证据的同时，也在等待国际社会的回应。她认为，格鲁吉亚已经深陷俄罗斯的势力范围，当前的选举关乎格鲁吉亚能否摆脱这一现状。她还指出，格鲁吉亚执政党利用各种手段，包括与俄罗斯情报机构合作，试图压制反对派声音。
Deep Dive
The Moldovan presidential elections and EU referendum were more dramatic than expected. The referendum, with constitutional powers to incorporate EU law, surpassed the validation threshold despite concerns about low diaspora turnout. Allegations of significant Russian interference, including vote-buying schemes orchestrated by a fugitive oligarch, emerged.
- Moldovan EU referendum passed with less than 1% above the threshold
- Allegations of significant Russian interference in the elections, including vote buying schemes
- 10-12% of votes were manipulated
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