Dara Massicot on Battlefield Developments in Ukraine and the Threat of Escalation
Russian Roulette
Deep Dive
Why did the Biden administration authorize the use of U.S. weapons to attack targets on Russian soil?
The decision was made to potentially impact the battlefield dynamics and help Ukraine, though the inventory of longer-range ATACOMs is not particularly robust.
What are the potential effects of using ATACOMs on the battlefield?
ATACOMs can target significant air defense systems and ammunition depots, impacting Russian artillery capabilities. However, they are not a game changer due to Russian interception and jamming capabilities.
Why are the Russians openly discussing their losses from attacks inside Russia?
The Russians are openly discussing losses to directly implicate the United States, viewing it as a communication issue rather than obfuscating the truth.
What are the structural issues affecting U.S. weapon production?
Issues include factory capacity, expense, and labor shortages, similar to challenges faced by the Russian industrial base.
How has the U.S. defense industrial base been impacted by the war in Ukraine?
The war has highlighted inadequate production rates and the need for structural adjustments to meet global obligations and support Ukraine effectively.
What are the manpower challenges faced by Ukraine's military?
Challenges include acute shortages of infantry, particularly in territorial defense and National Guard units, and a high casualty rate leading to reluctance among mobilized individuals to serve as frontline infantry.
How are the Russians using North Korean troops in the conflict?
North Korean troops are being integrated within Russian units in Kursk, aiming to push out Ukrainian positions, but they are not yet deployed inside Ukraine itself.
What are Russia's current military objectives in Ukraine?
Russia aims to push forward as much as possible, particularly in Kursk, to gain the best possible position before a potential change in U.S. administration and to regenerate its military for future conflicts.
What are the potential risks of a Russian breakthrough in Ukraine?
Ukraine uses drones and FPV munitions to hold the line, but there are weak parts of the front where manpower shortages could lead to significant Russian gains, particularly in southern Donetsk and Zaporizhia.
How has Ukraine's military strategy evolved in 2024?
Ukraine focused on holding positions and striking without building reserves, leading to current manpower shortages and the need for structural adjustments in command and recruitment.
- Limited supply of ATAKOMs
- Successful strikes on air defense systems
- Russian acknowledgment of losses
- ATAKOMs not a silver bullet
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