cover of episode The sudden rush for an Israel-Gaza hostage deal

The sudden rush for an Israel-Gaza hostage deal

2024/12/18
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Lynette Nusbacher
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Lynette Nusbacher:就当前以巴冲突的谈判而言,美国政府希望在权力交接前达成协议,避免谈判停滞。然而,尽管各方都在努力,但以色列的立场并未发生根本性改变,他们愿意在一些问题上让步,例如释放部分人质和延长停火时间,但坚持保留在加沙的军事走廊。她认为,当前冲突是更广泛的以色利-伊朗战争的一部分,但随着伊朗在叙利亚的影响力减弱,地区局势可能出现缓和。然而,加沙的缓和需要时间,以色列在获得人质之前不会停止行动,而哈马斯坚持不切实际的条件,利用人质来对抗以色列,并会尽可能长时间地扣留人质。此外,内塔尼亚胡为了避免下台和面临起诉,有动力将战争继续下去。内塔尼亚胡政府内部也存在意见分歧,一些极右翼成员希望战争持续。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is the Biden administration pushing for a Gaza ceasefire deal now?

The Biden administration is keen to maintain momentum in the negotiations before transitioning to the incoming Trump administration, ensuring no loss of traction in the talks.

What are the key sticking points in the Israel-Gaza negotiations?

Israel insists on keeping forces in Gaza, particularly the corridors that split the Gaza Strip, while Hamas opposes this. Additionally, the number and conditions of hostage releases remain contentious.

How does the conflict with Hamas fit into the broader Israel-Iran war?

The conflict with Hamas is seen as a theater in the broader Israel-Iran war, with Iran's influence in the region playing a significant role in the dynamics of the Gaza conflict.

What role do the hostages play in Hamas' strategy?

Hamas uses the hostages as leverage to keep Israel engaged in the conflict, as confrontation with Israel is central to Hamas' purpose and existence.

Why does Netanyahu have a vested interest in continuing the war?

Netanyahu needs to maintain the war to avoid resigning and to protect himself from prosecution, using his parliamentary immunity to stay in power and claim security successes.

How do Netanyahu's coalition partners impact the negotiations?

Netanyahu's coalition includes far-right parties with extreme views, such as recolonizing Gaza, which adds significant political baggage to the negotiations and complicates his ability to make concessions.

Shownotes Transcript

Negotiators say they’re closer than ever before to a deal that could see hostages released and a stop to fighting in Gaza. Amid whirlwind discussions in Middle Eastern capitals, strategist and national security specialist Dr Lynette Nusbacher unpacks the intricate dynamics at play.

The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists. 

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