Qatar - the quiet power broker
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Welcome to the world in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Stuart Willey.

The tiny country of Qatar gets outsized attention compared to its size. Despite being about as big as Yorkshire or Connecticut, this week it's hosted the director of the CIA, as well as Israeli negotiators as the long push for a Gaza ceasefire goes on. And it's Qatar's role as mediator between Israel and Hamas that has prompted criticism from some for hosting members of the Palestinian militant group.

Those criticisms have reached such a pitch from Republicans in the US Congress that Qatar's prime minister is reassessing the country's long-held role in mediation. But why is Qatar so often involved in regional diplomacy? As well as Hamas, it has been in the middle of complex negotiations with Iran, the Afghan Taliban and Russia.

Now, one person who could perhaps help us better understand is Dr. Bada El-Saif. He's a specialist in the Arabian Peninsula at Kuwait University and a fellow at Chatham House. Bada, many in the West perhaps worry about Qatar hosting Hamas leaders. What's behind the country's desire to mediate? Let me start with the beginnings. This time in December of 1971, around this time, Qatar gained its independence from the United Kingdom.

And one can trace the second comeback, if you may, of Qatar to 1995, when the father, Amir, he assumed power in 95. His name is Hamad bin Khalifa. He

He decided to boost the country with a full-time renaissance, if you may. So he wanted to put the tiny Qatar on the world stage throughout various platforms. He started with culture. You see a big focus on Islamic art and the arts in general. You see the media focus. Al Jazeera started around that time. And then you also see a focus on education.

And you have in Qatar an education city with various western branches of universities and homegrown entities as well. And the same thing could be said also about its own connections to different parties. So they unleashed their own gas explorations around that time. And that necessitated opening up with Iran even further because they share one of the largest gas fields offshore.

And also they've hosted since then the U.S. Al-Udeid base, which is the biggest U.S. base in the Middle East. So you could see how flexible, nimble, agile the policy has been. And to tie that to the foreign policy element, mediation became a very big thing for Qatar. And the constitution that came out in 2003 had in its entirety

a text in Article 7, a whole focus on mediation. Qatar sees itself as a friend of all, and it feels that it can give back to the world community, given how much it's been endowed with when it comes to both financial and human capital. And it's been playing this role for many, many years. What's been...

Problematic, I think, in the coverage of the last year with the war on Palestine and the role of Qatar is many spectators just focused on 2023-24 without looking at that history. But Qatar has been mediating with various factions and parties. They've done it with Lebanon. They've done it in Sudan. They've done it with various Palestinian factions. They even mediated between the U.S. and Taliban.

So what they're doing right now is not because they're picking sides, but they have been, again, as I said, a friend to all. And they would like to make sure that this world is attentive to an international-based rules order, that they can move things around.

And remember, they were the only ones that were able to release hostages back 12 months or 13 months ago in November of 23, along with the support of, of course, the US and Egypt as mediators. What is the benefit to Qatar of being a mediator in these global security events? After all,

We've seen a lot of suspicion and pushback recently. Sure, sure. So let's be in the shoes of the Qatari policymakers. I think Qatar knows that it is a small state surrounded by larger states. And for it to have a stake in its own stability, it wants to play a role of good towards other states in the sense that its soft power can transcend its geographic limitations.

so that there would be a need for Qatar in various conflicts. And that, in a way, is a safety valve for Qatar and Qatari policymaking and foreign policy in general. So I think this is a brilliant move. And you see this with small states throughout. My country, Kuwait, has played a similar role

earlier in its history in the 60s and the 70s and other countries in the gulf region and the middle east do play that role keeping in mind that that could present them with further credentials that would you know intensify or reinforce the branding of the country so the qatar brand uh

Maybe that hasn't come out as much as they should do. They should be putting that out there on why they're doing this. And hence, to alleviate any kind of suspicion that spectators might have about their role. So effectively ensuring their own stability and security. Is that a position the big powers might regret perhaps giving to Qatar?

I don't know if it's others giving Qatar that position. Qatar has been carving very hard for itself to claim that position. And so far it's been working. But let me tell you, it takes a lot of work. You have to be aware and conscious of the various geopolitical challenges and shifts.

And shifts there are in the Middle East. You know, we have frozen conflicts surrounding us, whether in Yemen and Libya and Syria, and some of them are unfreezing themselves as we speak. So movements of, you know, positions, actors, new actors on the page, that requires a lot of focus and attention.

And look, I think for Qatar and others, the more the merrier. I think more people should be playing that role. If anything, that's not a spoiler role. It's a role in which you go into someone who you can trust that can speak to other parties. And look, the Qataris have been rewarded, I would say, quite well. Most recently with the U.S., they've been granted the non-NATO status.

They've been added a few months ago, by the way, as one of, I forgot the naming, but you can enter the U.S. without a visa. There's like an online system that you fulfill. No other Arab country has that status. Qatar does. So it's been paying dividends for Qatar so far.

Paying dividends under the Biden administration, at least. How is Qatar and the rest of the Middle East perhaps looking ahead to the arrival of Donald Trump as US president? Is it something they're worrying about? No, I think Qatar, along with the other Gulf states and the Gulf Cooperation Council are very attuned to

to dealing with Trump, and they have been dealing with him in his first administration in an able manner. And I think they would need to factor in the various elements of his economic policy so that they don't lose out in the long run. You know, there is an issue, though. I wouldn't say so much on trade, although the tariffs could be problematic for rising economies like the ones in the Gulf. But I would think...

The whole notion of increasing oil production and increasing drilling, we're betting on ambitious national vision plans in the Gulf, including Qatar. And those are premised on high oil returns. Now, if the Trump administration will be pumping more, and they are the number one oil producer today, thanks to shale and all new technologies. So that could lead to lower oil prices, which could jeopardize the movement of some of these economic plans. That's right.

So Qatar has by some measure the highest per capita carbon emissions in the world. In a world that seeks to reduce the use of fossil fuels, will Qatar as a big gas producer be pushed to change its policies? You know, this is an interesting question because Qatar was the first Gulf state to host a COP.

many years ago, which is about climate change and the environment. And then Dubai did last year as well. And I know that the Gulf states collectively have targets for net carbon emission, you know, eliminations by say 2060, 2070 for some of them. So they're aware that they need to also lead in gas

and alternative energy. Although I would say natural gas is a bit cleaner than oil per se. And if anything, Qatar's market has been eastward most of the time. Now with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Qatar has appeared as a major player in the gas network market.

or the gas supply for Europe. So this is an interesting development to watch. Look, we're all in it together. I don't think it's one country's efforts. All countries need to come in to work on this very serious threat. And I would frankly say the alarming thing now where we need to focus on is with an incoming Trump administration.

There is no belief in the science behind climate change. He pulled out from Paris agreement last time. Biden returned the U.S. I think there will be another pullback. So you'll see a lot of, you know, alternative and competing discourses on this issue in the coming years. Bara, many thanks for being with us. That's Dr. Bara El-Saif from Kuwait University. He's also an associate fellow at Chatham House.

That is it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow. ACAST powers the world's best podcasts. Here's the show that we recommend.

Hey, everybody. I'm Naomi. And I'm Andy Beckerman. We're a real life couple and a real life couple of comedians. And we're the hosts of the podcast Couples Therapy. We're the only comedy relationship podcast ever. Yeah, I said it. And we're so good. We've been written up in both The New York Times and we made Grindr's list of top pod

Yes, we're giving you that high-low appeal. Trust. On the show, we talk to guests like Bob the Drag Queen, Angelica Ross, Bowen Yang, Janelle James, Danny Pudi, Darcy Carden, Paul F. Tompkins, and more. All about love, mental health, and everything in between. And we answer your relationship questions.

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