Putin planting pro-Russia president in NATO nation

2024/12/5

World in 10

Philip Greenlove

Tom Kington

Alex Dibble和Toby Gillis介绍了罗马尼亚总统选举的背景，亲普京、反北约的候选人Kalin Georgescu可能获胜，引发西方担忧。罗马尼亚安全委员会解密文件显示俄罗斯对选举的干预。Tom Kington详细分析了俄罗斯干预选举的方式，包括网络攻击、算法操纵和金钱贿赂等。他指出，虽然罗马尼亚方面暗示俄罗斯是幕后黑手，但没有明确指认。罗马尼亚对选举电脑遭受约85000次网络攻击表示担忧，认为是国家行为者所为。Kingon还指出，Georgescu的成功也反映了罗马尼亚民众对通货膨胀和乌克兰难民的不满情绪。尽管存在社交媒体操纵的可能性，但仍有200万民众投票支持Georgescu。Kington采访了Georgescu，Georgescu否认要退出北约或欧盟，但表示希望有更多谈判空间。如果当选，Georgescu可能会试图缩减罗马尼亚的北约基地或反导系统，但这受到议会制衡。美国对罗马尼亚选举中的社交媒体操纵表示担忧。Georgescu对普京和乌克兰战争的表态谨慎。Philip Greenlove表达了对俄罗斯试图瓦解北约的担忧，并强调需要认真对待俄罗斯试图影响选举的行为，防止其进一步瓦解北约。 Alex Dibble和Toby Gillis对罗马尼亚选举结果表示担忧，认为如果Georgescu胜选，将是对北约的打击。Tom Kington详细分析了俄罗斯在罗马尼亚选举中采取的混合攻击策略，包括网络攻击、社交媒体操纵和利用民众对通货膨胀和乌克兰难民的不满情绪等。他指出，虽然罗马尼亚官方没有明确指认俄罗斯为幕后黑手，但种种迹象表明俄罗斯对此负有责任。Kington还采访了Georgescu本人，Georgescu在对普京和对俄乌战争的表态上都比较含糊其辞，这增加了人们对其真实立场的担忧。Philip Greenlove则从北约的角度出发，表达了对俄罗斯试图从内部瓦解北约的担忧，并呼吁北约采取行动应对这一挑战。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is the potential election of a pro-Russian president in Romania causing concern for NATO?

Romania hosts significant NATO and US facilities, including a NATO base and an American missile defense system. A pro-Russian president could push for downsizing these facilities, impacting NATO's strategic position and the war in Ukraine.

How did Russia allegedly influence the Romanian presidential election?

Romania's Security Council declassified documents showing Russian meddling through aggressive hybrid attacks, including manipulation of TikTok algorithms, payments to influencers, and hacking of election computers.

What are the key grievances that propelled Calin Georgescu's unexpected surge in the polls?

Georgescu tapped into public discontent over runaway inflation and resentment against Ukrainian refugees, who have been receiving more benefits than local Romanians.

What is the extent of the president's power in Romania regarding foreign policy and NATO membership?

The Romanian president has some semi-executive powers over foreign policy, but the parliament is a significant counterbalance. Georgescu has been vague about his intentions, but he has criticized NATO facilities in the past.

How might NATO respond to the potential election of a pro-Russian president in Romania?

NATO's former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Philip Greenlove, suggests that NATO needs to address Russian efforts to shift voting populations and ensure that other NATO countries remain aligned against Russian influence.

Chapters

Concerns are rising in the West due to the potential success of a pro-Putin, anti-NATO candidate in Romania's upcoming presidential election. The Romanian Security Council has released documents indicating extensive Russian interference, including manipulation of social media algorithms and cyberattacks. This raises questions about the extent of Russia's influence on voter intentions.

Pro-Putin, anti-NATO candidate likely to win Romanian presidency
Romanian Security Council declassified documents showing Russian meddling
Aggressive hybrid attacks, algorithm manipulation on TikTok, and computer hacking

Shownotes Transcript

NATO-member Romania says Russian meddling has had a huge influence in its presidential election, which looks likely to deliver a pro-Russian, anti-NATO president, who has come from nowhere. Calin Georgescu won the first round last month and is now favourite to win Sunday's run off. With Romania hosting both US and NATO facilities, and sharing a massive border with Ukraine, what does it mean for the bloc, and the war on its doorstep? Times correspondent Tom Kington analyses the concerns.

The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists.

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