Deep Dive
What are the key challenges Syria faces after the fall of Assad's regime?
Syria faces internal divisions among armed factions, control over key resources like grain and oil, and the uncertain loyalty of Assad's former supporters. The country also needs to address governance and inclusivity to avoid social unrest.
Why might a decentralized approach be better for Syria's future?
Syria is a diverse country with various religious and cultural groups. A decentralized approach could promote inclusivity and avoid the use of brute force, which was a hallmark of Assad's regime.
How has Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) positioned itself in the post-Assad Syria?
HTS has taken control of much of central Syria and has been pragmatic in maintaining civil services and striking deals, including with former enemies like Russia, to stabilize the country temporarily.
What role do international actors play in shaping Syria's future?
International actors like Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the U.S. have deep knowledge of Syrian factions and have been negotiating behind the scenes for years. However, resolving material interests and geopolitical fault lines remains challenging.
How might Trump's policy of staying away from Syria impact the region?
Trump's policy could lead to a U.S. withdrawal from northeast Syria, allowing Turkish-backed rebels to take control. This could destabilize the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration and escalate tensions in the region.
Why might Trump's hands-off approach to Syria be considered sensible?
By not meddling, the U.S. avoids complicating the situation further. The Syrian process has largely been driven by Syrians, and minimal foreign interference could allow them to resolve their issues internally.
- Victory Day marks the fall of Assad's regime but doesn't guarantee peace.
- Various factions, including Kurds and loyalists, still hold significant power.
- Syria's diversity complicates the establishment of a unified governance.
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