Israel "takes advantage" of Assad's fall in Syria
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and James Hansen. From a military perspective, it's been a very good few months for Israel. They've killed key leaders of both Hamas and Hezbollah. They've agreed a ceasefire with the latter in Lebanon. And in recent days, the Assad regime, another key ally of Iran, has been overthrown in Syria.

But now, it seems Israel wants to further capitalise on this moment of weakness for its enemies. At the time of recording, Israeli tanks are within 20 miles of the capital Damascus, having sent troops from the occupied Golan Heights. That is according to Syrian security sources, although Israel has denied this. But Israel's movements are drawing criticism from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt.

as well as the UN Special Envoy for Syria. So what is Israel up to? And will this further escalate tensions in the already febrile Middle East? Our guest today is Professor Lina Khatib, the Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the think tank Chatham House. Lina, what is the latest on Israel's operations in Syria?

What we understand is that regardless of where Israel is exactly, it has definitely taken areas that it is not meant to be taking. So even areas in the buffer zone are not meant to be under Israeli annexation in this way. And therefore, it has definitely stepped beyond the agreement that has been in place since the 70s regarding Israel.

where Israeli military presence should be. And this is a significant change in the status quo around the Golan Heights area and the area where the Israeli-Syrian border lies. And Lina, just remind us a bit about the history of the Golan Heights. It's an area of land in southwestern Syria, but parts of it have been occupied by Israel for decades. So why is it of so much importance? I mean...

Israel, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, wants to have annexation of the Golan Heights so that it becomes Israeli territory. He said recently that he regards this as permanent. Israel is hoping that the new administration of President Donald Trump will give the green light for this kind of move.

It has been occupying the Golan Heights for decades and the area is disputed because it is Syrian territory. Although under the regime of Bashar al-Assad, there were no actual efforts by the Syrian regime to retake the Golan Heights.

So in a way, this meant that Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights all those years under Assad went largely uncontested. And a lot of people see that Bashar al-Assad had been a kind of acquiescent, almost ally of Israel on this matter, because he only rhetorically said that Israel should leave that area behind.

but didn't really, as I said, make that happen. Now, the reason why the Golan Heights are so important is because of their strategic location. This is a mountainous area that is on the border of Israel and Syria. It is, as I said, Syrian.

and it overlooks Lebanon as well. So if Israel is in charge of that area militarily, then it can have security surveillance over Israeli territory, Syrian territory, as well as Lebanese territory. And what it has done in the last few days is extend its presence into Mount Hermon, which is basically an extension of the Golan Heights area. But

as I said, it's not an area that Israel had military presence in until a couple of days ago. And that area allows Israel to be able to just see from this high position movements across southern Lebanon and also Syria. So Israel is doing this because it's

It says it wants to maintain its security and is taking advantage of the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad because the Syrian military has basically withdrawn from the areas that Israel is now taking. But then according to reports, Israel is also launching airstrikes on the Syrian capital Damascus. So what's their motivation for that?

This is part of a bigger picture in which Israel seems to want Syria to become practically demilitarized.

Israel is attacking weapons sites that used to belong to the Syrian military of Bashar al-Assad. So, for example, weapons warehouses, weapons manufacturing sites, as well as bases. There was also an attack on the port of Latakia, which is the naval port, not the civilian one, and practically eliminated Syrians' navies.

And so here we see that Israel is really taking advantage of the complete dissolution, really, of the Syrian military to force a new reality in Syria, because the new kind of rebel forces that are now de facto in charge in Syria are

will not have the capacity to rebuild this military arsenal anytime soon. So by doing this, Israel is trying to make any potential military threat from Syria obsolete. And is this not just about capitalising on the chaos in Syria, but also about capitalising on the weakness of Israel's archenemy, Iran?

Absolutely, because some of these weapons manufacturing sites, the Syrian government had called them scientific research centers, used to manufacture weapons for Iran and Hezbollah. So some of the ballistic missiles that Hezbollah and Iran had,

were manufactured in those sites, as well as actually biological and chemical weapons. And Israel, of course, is taking advantage of the military defeat of Iran in Syria, because both Iran and Hezbollah have had to now withdraw their militias from Syria after the takeover of the country by the rebels. And this is part of Israel's wider objective to weaken Iran in

the region. So it has already defeated Hezbollah militarily in Lebanon. It is now extending this to Syria. And it is likely that Israel could keep extending this campaign to weaken Iran's military capacity and its proxies military capacity, perhaps in other places in the region as well.

Israel's operations in Syria have been met with condemnation, including from the UN, from Egypt and from Saudi Arabia. But realistically, are they powerless to stop Israel? Unfortunately, beyond condemnation, it's going to be very difficult for them to get Israel to change its mind. Israel now sees an opportunity to

And it is taking full advantage of this opportunity, which is a wide open space containing targets that it can easily destroy with few repercussions beyond statements of condemnation from the international community. And as I said, Israel is banking on

the new administration of Donald Trump to, in a way, allow it to make this new status quo permanent. So here Israel is positioning itself more strongly than ever in the Middle East. If Syria is weakened significantly militarily, next door you have Lebanon, which is already weak as a state.

on the military level and Hezbollah now has been weakened, then Israel can kind of feel that the potential threats that could play out in the future were Hezbollah or Iran or any other force to try to attack Israel. Israel wants to preemptively prevent such a scenario from happening.

And how will Israel view Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group that overthrew the Assad regime? Because on the one hand, they are Islamist militants, so no friends of Israel. But on the other hand, they're not an ally of Iran.

I mean, at the moment, Israel is dealing with the situation pragmatically because it's taking full advantage of the fact that HDS led this campaign to remove Assad from power and in turn open up this opportunity for Israel to extend its power in the region. But this does not mean that Israel will want to see Syria ruled by a group like HDS.

And so, you know, I think Israel also, in making sure that Syria is weak militarily, in turn does not want Islamist jihadist groups to have access to weapons. And later on, perhaps some extremist offshoots of those groups might use these weapons to attack Israel once more. So Israel basically is trying to...

have security proofing at the geographical level and without trusting any of the political forces that are currently in control, neither in Syria nor in Lebanon. Lina, thank you. That's Professor Lina Khatib, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the think tank Chatham House. That is it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.

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