Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire: is peace in Gaza next?
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, James Hansen and Alex Dibble. After 14 months of fighting, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah has come into force. Around 10,000 soldiers from Lebanon's army are being deployed to the south of the country, tasked with ensuring that the ceasefire holds. There have been celebrations in Beirut.

But the reaction among Israelis has been more mixed.

The truce also means those who've had to evacuate their homes in the border areas between the two countries can begin to return. Gabrielle Weinegger is The Times' Israel correspondent in Tel Aviv. Gabrielle, what are the terms of this ceasefire and how has it come about? It's taken 14 months of fighting to get to this moment. It's come about really via a very, very heavy-handed push from the United States and the Biden administration looking for some kind of solution.

after so many long months of war. What we've seen now is this agreement being signed and going back to some

semblance of what looks like a very, very precarious peace. I use that word lightly because this can be broken at any time. There's kind of a 60-day, what would you call it, some kind of escrow almost, where the Lebanese militia are set to pull back north of the Tani River

which is some kind of strategic and symbolic demarcation line, which will separate and create a buffer zone between Hezbollah, where they were very previously having a very strong presence in southern Lebanon, and northern Israel, where Israeli troops, which entered into southern Lebanon two months ago, will pull back.

and evacuate southern Lebanon. So that's all going to happen very, very gradually over the next 60 days where we'll be able to test if this ceasefire will indeed hold. And why has Netanyahu chosen this moment to agree to a ceasefire? Netanyahu says that Israel's achieved much of its goals when it comes to fighting with Hezbollah and he seeks to return security to the northern border and seeks to return the residents' homes

There's been lots of complaints, of course, about all the evacuees who haven't been able to go home and have had no information on when they'll be allowed to go back home. I've spoken to a few of them today and they've told me that they still don't feel safe to return back home. Netanyahu said that he also wants to focus his attention on what's going on in Iran and he wants to focus on the nuclear threat, which has always been his core concern in the Middle East.

He wants to say there's some kind of victory there. And the focus has been so much on Lebanon over the past two months since the Israeli ground invasion that, you know, Gaza has gone down in the news headlines. But the war in Gaza is still very much continuing, especially in northern Gaza, where fighters are still posted there. So he is looking to end the war in the north, bring back some of those reservists because the economy is decimated and a ceasefire with Hezbollah will start to revive the economy and

pull Israel back. They're in a recession, but pull them back potentially from a financial crisis where he can focus all his attention on Gaza. And Gabrielle, you mentioned Gaza. What

What chance is there of a similar ceasefire agreement being reached there? That's the million dollar question. I don't think that we are close at all. Then again, I think everybody was very sceptical even about this agreement happening because the idea of a ceasefire after such a long war seemed a bit like a dream. And I think it still is a dream for Gaza. I think Netanyahu says he wants to bring the hostages back.

The Biden administration will certainly be pushing for that. And Palestinians in Gaza will certainly be hoping for that, as well as families and civilians across Israeli spectrum. But there are hardline forces in the Israeli government, including Itamar Ben-Gavir and Bezalel Smotrich, who do not want to see a ceasefire in Gaza. And that was a red line for them when it comes to

making any kind of ceasefire agreement. And that wasn't a red line for them with the ceasefire with Hezbollah. They didn't leave the government. And Netanyahu seeks to stay in power and he seeks to keep those more hardline elements of the government inside the cabinet so that it doesn't break down. I think we are a long way off from a ceasefire there. I don't see the Israeli forces pulling out of there anytime soon with no plan in place, military plan,

social plan, political plan for who is going to control Gaza, especially given that there is no support for what America thinks would be a good idea to prop up the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Authority. There is nobody there to govern. And with a vacuum like that, it can only be the Israeli military continuing to try and fight Hamas there and stay in control of the Gaza Strip.

Gabrielle, thank you. That is The Times' Israel correspondent, Gabrielle Vinegar. Well, as Gabrielle mentioned, de-escalating the situation in the Middle East is a priority for Joe Biden, who has just weeks left in office now. Alistair Dorber is The Times' Washington correspondent. Alistair, is it fair to say Joe Biden is a man in a hurry? He's very much a man in a hurry.

Joe Biden has, I think for my last count, 55 days left in office. He never wanted to get embroiled in the Middle East. It was one of the things that at the start of his presidency, he was quite happy to accept the status quo and move American priorities on to other things. Obviously, with the October 7th attacks last year, that changed everything. And then the wider conflict in the Middle East has essentially sucked up the possible exception of Ukraine.

all of Joe Biden's foreign policy agenda. He doesn't want to leave office with the Middle East in flames. The deal yesterday that brings an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah is a coup. There had been a suggestion that that might be kept alight until Donald Trump came back to office. But I

Of course, that's only one element of what's happening in the Middle East. We've got the war in Gaza still going on. We've got the hostages that are still being held there. And it doesn't really feel as though there's much sign that that's going to end. And of course, over time, we've seen Iranian proxies attack Israel. We've seen Iran attack Israel. We've seen the Houthis in Yemen become more active and attack American interests. So this whole region, Biden looks like he's going to leave office with nothing.

Joe Biden's legacy appears very important to him.

How worried will he be, do you think, that he'll have laid the groundwork for a peace deal in Gaza, but it will be Donald Trump who eventually claims the credit for it? Well, the legacy is an interesting thing because I think you can divide it into two things. The war in Gaza and the American inability to put an end to it, I think, contributed significantly to Robert Harris losing the election. So I think that that's part of his administration's legacy. But like you say, looking to the future,

I think it's entirely possible that within the next two, three years, there is a deal to end the war in Gaza probably before that. The hostages that are still alive and being held by Hamas are released and the lot of the Palestinians in Gaza improves, all of which is likely to happen on Donald Trump's watch now. And Donald Trump has always said, well, look, I'm

I'm the guy who, when I was in office first time, no war started. Vladimir Putin wasn't invading Ukraine. Hamas wasn't launching terrorist attacks on Israel. The region was relatively stable. So again, if all these things happen under Trump's watch, then I think that'll be a deep frustration to Joe Biden and the people around him who spent pretty much all year trying to put an end to this war.

And I suppose Donald Trump would argue, Alistair, that he may be in a stronger position than Biden to secure a ceasefire in Gaza because it was under Trump that the Abraham Accords were agreed and also it appears to be that he has a better relationship with Netanyahu than Biden does. I think both of those things are true. I mean, Joe Biden was able, I think, to pivot towards his priorities in Asia, partly, and it is only partly, but partly because the situation in the Middle East was calm. The Abraham Accords had been signed between Israel

Israel and various previously hostile states in the Middle East. These are recognition deals. The Saudis were talking to Israel through back channels and everything else. So yeah, exactly. I think if Donald Trump comes back into office, as he will do, and peace does break out or a version of peace breaks out in Gaza, he'll be able to turn around and say, look, you know, all these

foreign policy so-called experts, the foreign policy establishment that's been around in Washington for decades, they don't know what they're doing. This is the way to conduct diplomacy and to achieve peace in hostile areas of the world. Alistair, thank you. That's The Times' Washington correspondent, Alistair Dorbath. And that is it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow. At Leidos, a brilliant mind is smart, but a brilliant team is smarter.

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