cover of episode Frontline Special: Times Ukraine reporter Maxim Tucker

Frontline Special: Times Ukraine reporter Maxim Tucker

2024/12/7
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James Hansen与Maxim Tucker讨论了乌克兰战争的最新进展,包括俄罗斯在顿巴斯和扎波罗热地区的攻势,以及乌克兰在哈尔科夫地区的部分反攻。Tucker分析了乌克兰当前面临的困境,包括战场上的失利、民众士气低落以及能源基础设施遭到破坏。他还探讨了西方国家对乌克兰的支持,以及即将到来的美国总统大选对局势的影响。Tucker认为,乌克兰需要在相对优势或至少不是劣势的情况下启动和平进程,并利用其在库尔斯克地区的领土作为谈判筹码。关于当前和平协议是否符合乌克兰利益存在争议,一部分人认为冻结战线符合利益,另一部分人认为俄罗斯长期存在问题,乌克兰应该继续战斗。Tucker还分析了各种停火协议的风险,特别是那些可能导致取消对俄罗斯制裁或结束其经济孤立的协议,这可能会让俄罗斯有机会重新集结并再次发动攻击。泽连斯基坚持要求获得北约成员资格,以确保如果停火协议被俄罗斯违反,北约将采取行动。乌克兰担心,如果停火协议导致取消制裁,俄罗斯将有机会重建实力并再次进攻。一个更加强大的俄罗斯可能会威胁北约领土,例如夺取爱沙尼亚的部分领土,以此来测试北约的反应。Tucker还评论了泽连斯基关于乌克兰加入北约的提议,认为该提议难以实现,因为北约不太可能直接与俄罗斯开战。他认为北约可以向乌克兰提供其他安全保障,例如在乌克兰西部部署部队,训练乌克兰军队,并实施空中巡逻任务。Tucker还讨论了特朗普第二任期对乌克兰战争的影响,以及向乌克兰提供的远程导弹对乌克兰军队士气提升和作战能力的影响。他还分析了对俄罗斯能源基础设施的打击对俄罗斯经济的影响,认为由于俄罗斯政府对经济的操控,很难准确评估其损害程度。Tucker认为,只要俄罗斯军队仍在乌克兰领土上,西方就应该维持对俄罗斯的严厉制裁。最后,Tucker讨论了卡尔蒂亚旅的成功经验,以及冬季恶劣的作战条件对前线活动的影响,并对未来局势走向进行了展望。 James Hansen主要负责引导访谈,提出问题,并对Maxim Tucker的观点进行回应和补充。他与Maxim Tucker就乌克兰战争的各个方面进行了深入的探讨,包括军事态势、政治局势、和平谈判的可能性以及国际社会的作用。他特别关注了乌克兰的战略选择,以及如何平衡在战场上取得进展与寻求和平解决之间的关系。他还探讨了西方国家对乌克兰的支持,以及即将到来的美国总统大选对局势的影响。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is the situation in Ukraine particularly challenging for the country right now?

Ukraine is losing ground on all fronts, with Russia advancing in the Donbass and massing for an assault on Zaporizhia city. Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian electricity infrastructure are causing widespread blackouts and suffering, affecting morale. Politically, there's uncertainty with Trump's incoming administration and potential pressure on Ukraine to enter peace talks.

What are the key concerns for Ukraine regarding a potential ceasefire with Russia?

Ukraine fears that any ceasefire that lifts sanctions on Russia could allow Putin to regroup and attack again, similar to previous broken ceasefires since 2014. Zelensky insists on NATO membership as a security guarantee to prevent future invasions.

How do some Ukrainians view the appointment of Kellogg as a Ukraine envoy?

Some Ukrainians view Kellogg's appointment positively as he is familiar with the situation in Ukraine and not naive about Russian intentions. They hope he can help negotiate a peace deal that doesn't just benefit Russia and allow them to regroup.

What impact have the ATAKOMs and Storm Shadow missiles had on the morale of Ukrainian troops?

The supply of ATAKOMs and Storm Shadow missiles has provided a significant morale boost to Ukrainian troops, particularly those in Kharkiv. These weapons offer new capabilities to strike Russian air bases and strategic targets further from the front line.

Why are some foreign fighters attracted to the HARTIA Brigade in Ukraine?

Foreign fighters, like a young Scottish lad, are attracted to the HARTIA Brigade because it operates under NATO command and control structures, offering a more democratic and organized approach to warfare. This method is seen as more respectful of soldiers' lives and more effective in combat.

What challenges does Ukraine face in transitioning its military command structure to a NATO-style system?

Transitioning to a NATO-style command structure is challenging due to the ongoing war and the need to maintain operational effectiveness. The Ukrainian army is still based on Soviet doctrine, and changing this requires time and training, especially during active combat.

How might the winter months affect military operations on the Ukrainian front lines?

Winter conditions typically slow down military operations due to harsh, freezing conditions and the threat of FPV drones. However, the looming possibility of peace talks in January might prompt both sides to jockey for better positions before negotiations begin.

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the current state of the war in Ukraine, focusing on the recent advancements of Russian forces and the challenges faced by Ukraine. It also discusses the potential implications of a Trump presidency and the ongoing debate about whether a peace settlement would be beneficial for Ukraine.
  • Russian advances in Donbass and Zaporizhia
  • Ukraine losing ground on multiple fronts
  • Impact of airstrikes on Ukrainian morale
  • Potential implications of a Trump presidency
  • Debate on a peace settlement
  • Concerns about lifting sanctions on Russia

Shownotes Transcript

In this extended Frontline conversation, James Hanson speaks to Times man in Ukraine, Maxim Tucker, who analyses how the war is going from on the ground.

The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists. 

Watch more: www.youtube.com/@ListenToTimesRadio 

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