cover of episode Frontline Special: General Philip Breedlove

Frontline Special: General Philip Breedlove

2024/12/8
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菲利普·布里德洛夫将军
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Kate Chabot就乌克兰战争的最新局势、泽连斯基总统的策略以及西方国家的应对措施,对菲利普·布里德洛夫将军进行了深入的访谈。布里德洛夫将军认为,乌克兰目前的困境很大程度上是由于西方政策的失误造成的,西方国家未能向乌克兰提供足够的军事援助,导致乌克兰在战场上处于劣势。他批评了西方国家在之前的冲突中对俄罗斯侵略行为的纵容,认为这使得俄罗斯更加肆无忌惮。在谈到未来的谈判策略时,布里德洛夫将军主张西方国家不应一开始就向普京妥协,而应设定更高的目标,迫使普京做出让步。他强调克里米亚问题的重要性,认为俄罗斯必须放弃对克里米亚的控制。他还指出,普京比乌克兰更需要停火,以便重整军队,因此西方国家不应轻易让步。布里德洛夫将军还对西方国家在对乌克兰的军事援助问题上存在误解,他指出,这些援助并非单纯的资金援助,而是通过军火采购等方式间接支持美国经济。他还分析了特朗普政府时期对欧洲军事部署和投资的情况,认为特朗普政府虽然言辞强硬,但实际上增加了对欧洲的军事部署和投资。此外,布里德洛夫将军还谈到了欧洲军队可能在乌克兰停火后担任维和部队的可能性,以及俄罗斯对罗马尼亚大选的干预等问题。他认为,西方国家需要更加关注俄罗斯的灰色地带行动,并采取更强有力的措施来应对俄罗斯的侵略行为。最后,布里德洛夫将军还谈到了核武器扩散的风险,他认为西方国家对核威胁的回应不足,导致其他国家也试图获得核武器,这加剧了全球核扩散的风险。 Kate Chabot就当前乌克兰局势、西方对乌政策、以及未来可能的谈判和冲突走向,与菲利普·布里德洛夫将军进行了深入探讨。布里德洛夫将军以其丰富的军事经验和对地缘政治的深刻理解,对一系列关键问题发表了独到见解。他指出,西方国家对乌克兰的军事援助不足,导致乌克兰在战场上处于劣势,并批评了西方国家在过去对俄罗斯侵略行为的纵容。在谈判策略方面,布里德洛夫将军认为,西方国家不应一开始就满足普京的要求,而应设定更高的目标,从而在谈判中占据更有利的地位。他强调了克里米亚问题的重要性,认为这是谈判的关键所在。他还分析了普京的战略意图,认为普京需要停火以重整军队,西方国家不应轻易让步。布里德洛夫将军还谈到了美国对乌克兰的军事援助并非单纯的资金援助,而是通过军火采购等方式间接支持美国经济。他还分析了特朗普政府时期对欧洲军事部署和投资的情况,认为特朗普政府虽然言辞强硬,但实际上增加了对欧洲的军事部署和投资。此外,他还讨论了欧洲军队可能在乌克兰停火后担任维和部队的可能性,以及俄罗斯对罗马尼亚大选的干预等问题。他认为,西方国家需要更加关注俄罗斯的灰色地带行动,并采取更强有力的措施来应对俄罗斯的侵略行为。最后,布里德洛夫将军还谈到了核武器扩散的风险,他认为西方国家对核威胁的回应不足,导致其他国家也试图获得核武器,这加剧了全球核扩散的风险。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Ukraine struggling on the battlefield despite Western support?

Ukraine's difficulties stem from Western policy decisions that have not provided the necessary tools to win the war. For instance, the ratio of artillery fire is 10 rounds from Russia for every 1 round from Ukraine.

What changes has President Zelensky made to Ukraine's armed forces, and why?

Zelensky replaced the commander of ground forces and appointed a new deputy commander to increase combat capability and introduce innovative personnel management approaches. These changes aim to prepare for potential negotiations and improve battlefield performance.

What is General Breedlove's stance on President Zelensky's proposal for a ceasefire and NATO membership?

Breedlove believes Zelensky's proposal is too lenient and should be more aggressive, starting negotiations with demands for Russia to give up land, particularly Crimea, to avoid setting a precedent of rewarding aggression.

How does General Breedlove view the potential role of European troops as peacekeepers in Ukraine?

Breedlove sees it as sensible but warns that Russia will likely view any European force as NATO presence, which could complicate negotiations. He emphasizes the need for a strong, visible commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty.

What does General Breedlove suggest as a strong policy for the West regarding Ukraine?

He advocates for a clear policy stating that the West will not tolerate Russia's aggression, will support Ukraine in defending against it, and will provide the necessary tools for Ukraine to win the war.

How does General Breedlove interpret the impact of Russia's involvement in Syria on the Ukraine conflict?

Breedlove believes Russia's focus on Ukraine has weakened its position in Syria, leading to rebel advances. This suggests Russia is prioritizing Ukraine over maintaining influence in other regions.

What concerns does General Breedlove have about Romania's potential shift towards a pro-Putin president?

Breedlove is concerned about the implications for NATO's unity and preparedness, as Romania's border with Ukraine and its hosting of a significant NATO air base make it a critical ally in the region.

What does General Breedlove see as the biggest threat to global security in the context of nuclear proliferation?

Breedlove identifies the inconsistency between Western policies and actions as encouraging nuclear proliferation, as adversaries observe that nuclear threats can influence Western decision-making.

Shownotes Transcript

In this extended Frontline conversation, Kate Gerbeau speaks to NATO's former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Philip Breedlove, about the war in Ukraine.

The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists. 

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