Deep Dive
Why is the United States uncomfortable with assassination campaigns in the context of the Ukraine war?
The U.S. is concerned that assassination campaigns could escalate globally, leading to broader conflict and destabilization.
How has Russia responded to previous escalations from Ukraine?
Russia has typically responded with military action, such as missile strikes on command and control targets or attempts at counter-assassinations.
What impact do chemical weapons have on military operations in Ukraine?
Chemical weapons are less effective against prepared troops, as they can use gas masks and protective equipment. However, they slow down operations due to the difficulty of functioning in full protective gear.
Why is the loss of Russian bases in Syria significant for Putin?
The loss would be a psychological and diplomatic blow, symbolizing a major military failure. It would also remove strategic advantages, such as air and naval bases in the eastern Mediterranean.
How has Russia's credibility been affected by its military failures in the Middle East and Ukraine?
Russia's reputation for having a competent military and effective weapons has been damaged. However, if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, the impact of these failures may be lessened.
What is Putin's current stance on the war in Ukraine as it approaches the three-year mark?
Putin initially expected a quick victory but now believes Russia has the upper hand, with momentum on its side. He is relatively optimistic about the future of the war.
Why is Ukraine nervous about the potential shift in U.S. policy under a Trump presidency?
Ukraine fears that Trump may reduce or cut off aid, and his promise to solve the conflict in 24 hours could lead to a peace deal that favors Russia, such as an in-place ceasefire.
What is Zelensky's strategy for maintaining foreign support in the face of uncertainty?
Zelensky has consistently met with heads of government, spoken to parliaments, and engaged with the EU to build personal relationships and secure support, especially as U.S. aid becomes uncertain.
How is Russia sustaining its war effort despite high casualties?
Russia is recruiting heavily, offering incentives, and avoiding a second mobilization. Putin believes he can sustain the war and eventually force Ukraine to seek peace or collapse militarily.
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