2024 analysed: Putin's year
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Learn more at apu.apus.edu slash military. Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and James Hansen. As the year draws to a close, we're bringing you a series of episodes that analyse 2024 from a security perspective and from the perspective of individual world leaders.

And to kick things off, we're looking at Vladimir Putin. It's been another eventful year for the Russian president. His forces have continued to sustain heavy casualties in Ukraine. And part of his own territory was invaded when Ukrainian troops launched an incursion into Kursk.

Meanwhile, he's grown closer to North Korea and Iran, but he's lost a key ally with the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Our guest today is Mark Gagliotti, Russia expert and honorary professor at University College London. Mark, how do you think Vladimir Putin will be reflecting on the past 12 months? I mean, to be honest, I think he's probably leaving it fairly cocky despite his reversal in Syria.

But from his point of view, this is not a man who necessarily thinks very far ahead, and it's certainly not a man who seems to have a problem with burning through Russia's future in the name of advances today. And so he goes into 2025 with his forces continuing to advance in the Donbass and the Kursk regions with the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency that even if he's not –

necessarily sort of providing Russia with what it wants. He is the disruptor in chief, so we can imagine all kinds of shenanigans in the West. A lot of European countries are in crisis, Germany heading towards elections, French President Macron undermined by his troubles holding on to a prime minister. Put all that lot together, and although absolutely there are storm clouds gathering, he's not really one to look for them. So I think he feels probably fairly positive.

In August this year, Ukraine, as we mentioned, launched that incursion into Russian territory by invading Kursk. How significant a moment was that, do you think? And what lessons will Putin have learned from it? Well, to start with the learning, the lessons, some things the Russians are able to and have demonstrated their capacity to learn lessons from, others not so much. And I think this falls into the not so much category.

There was a lot of talk made about the importance of territorial defense forces or proper sort of anti-tank defenses and all the rest of the stuff along the border. But in some ways, precisely because it's a pretty long border, that northern border between Ukraine and Russia.

And it's hard to see any kind of real sustained effort being put into it. So, I mean, I'm not entirely sure. If a similar assault was launched in Belgorod region or whatever, I don't think the Russians would necessarily be that ready for it. Except in one term. I mean, the Russians did have some forewarning that the Ukrainians were planning something.

They just, with great complacency, assumed that it was going to be another one of these very minor little incursions. Rush in, take a village, to put it very bluntly, take some selfies and some pictures and then quickly leave for morale purposes more than anything else. They had basically decided that the Ukrainians wouldn't be launching anything as major as actually happened. So they may well actually be rather less complacent next time.

But in terms of the overall impact of it, in some ways I think that its impact is less than it might have been because in some ways Putin made the decision to not care. And that was a bit of a gamble at the time.

Because, you know, it was something... It was a big deal. It was a large chunk of the Kursk region. It was the first time we'd actually had foreign troops in occupation of Russian territory since the Second World War. But actually, by trying to sort of normalise it, by essentially saying, look, it's no big deal. It's soon going to be dealt with. Let's focus on the important stuff. And above all, by not...

falling prey to the temptation of diverting his battle-hardened veteran troops away from the Donbass front, where they've been continuing to make slow but steady movement, to essentially try and quickly address the Kursk issue. He managed to maintain his military momentum. Now, I think if he is able, and already I think the Russians have taken back about 40% of the salient, if he is able, by the time of a potential ceasefire, to have pretty much pushed the Ukrainians out,

then I think he will feel pretty happy with the outcome. And yet, in the wake of the Kursk incursion, the value of the Russian currency, the ruble, dropped significantly, and there remain big questions about the weakness of the Russian economy. Will that be a major concern for Putin? Yes, it should. And I think...

The thing is, I think Putin has an almost kind of Bolshevik approach in a way. Not that he's in any way a communist, quite the opposite. He's in some ways a kind of a nationalist capitalist. But in that sense, ultimately, economics can always be shaped by the state. Well, you know, how many British Chancellor of the Exchequer would love to have thought that that was the case? The fact of the matter is, yes, there are some serious underlying issues with the economy.

The ruble's wobbliness is a factor. It certainly leads to inflation. It's not, again, crucial in many ways because if you look at the key deals, for example, the ammunition that the Russians are getting from the North Koreans, that's actually being handled through swaps largely. It's not being done in money. It's in terms of grain and technology and whatever else.

And obviously, the Russian military pays its soldiers in rubles. It pays for its equipment in rubles. So it's not as if this has an immediate impact on its capacity to maintain its war machine. But it is all signs of an economy that is actually heading towards a likely sort of situation of stagflation. So high levels of inflation, but also stagnant productivity. So much of it is geared now for the military sector.

The labor market is totally overstretched. I mean, basically, it's not just that there aren't more workers available, but the defense sector is sort of vampirically sucking the blood from the rest of the sector. And all of this connects. I mean, you know, it's not just that, for example, the police force is about a quarter under strength, which is leading to higher crime rates. But we've also had news quite recently that Erzsede, Russian Railways,

is very heavily undermanned at the moment. Fewer staff means you can run fewer trains. Fewer trains mean there's fewer raw materials heading or finished goods coming out the factories and being taken to where they need. All of these connect. And this is something that Putin really has never understood. He's essentially outsourced economic management to a handful of, admittedly, on the whole, exceedingly capable technocrats.

But the point is, they do not have any real impact on grand policy. He didn't consult them before invading Ukraine. Their job is just to deal with the fallout.

And there is a limit. I mean, they're very good at working out different ways of getting around various crises. Bottom line is, so long as this war is going on, so long as 40% of all government spending is being devoted to defence and security, then no matter what kind of fiscal play you feel you have, you can't affect the core things.

But the point is, this is leading to stagflation, to a likely long-term slow decline in the Russian economy, not probably the kind of sudden implosion that would have an immediate and dramatic effect on Russia's capacity to wage war. And Mark, how do you think Putin views the return of Donald Trump, especially when it comes to potential peace talks in the new year? I mean, most analysts suggest that he preferred Trump to Kamala Harris.

But then why did he sanction the broadcast of naked footage of Melania Trump on state television last month? Surely that is a strange way to win favour with the incoming president. It is, but let's be honest. First of all, we mustn't forget that not everything that happens on Russian media has been carefully determined by the Kremlin. Some people think that they're doing what the Kremlin would like. And secondly, let's not forget the Russians can be as stupid as the rest of us.

Because I must admit, I have no good explanation for that. I mean, people have constructed all kinds of theories of it's attempted blackmail or something like that. None of it really at the moment convinces, but as I said, I don't have an alternative answer.

But I do think it speaks to an interesting ambiguity. I mean, you're absolutely right that from the Russians' point of view, they would much rather Trump to win the elections, and they were happy that he did. But on the other hand, there is also a caution. I mean, it's quite interesting if one looks at the messaging that absolutely clearly is coming from the Kremlin to the Russians themselves. It's very much trying to damp down expectations. You know,

You know, don't assume too much. And even the suggestion has been made firstly by Nikolai Patrushev, who is essentially the former sort of in effect national security advisor to Putin, still a close Putin aide, and a man who actually is so hawkish as to make Putin sometimes look vaguely liberal.

But then Putin himself suggesting that actually if Donald Trump veers too far away from the agenda of the American deep state, then he faces another assassination attempt. Now, that's nonsense. But nonetheless, again, it's nonsense that's really aimed as much as anything else to the Russians to say, look, don't think that everything's going to be suddenly wonderful. Because they know that Trump is very unpredictable. Trump is very touchy. And that he's also...

someone who, if he feels that he's being treated as a loser, probably his greatest pathological fear, that actually he could respond very badly. I mean, they do remember, for example, the point where quite literally over the course of a few hours, Trump, when he was president first time, decided to launch cruise missiles against Syria in response to a chemical weapons attack. This is a man who has a much lower threshold for the use of violence than Biden certainly did.

and who also can literally change his mind overnight. So I think from their point of view, yes, they are looking forward, shall we say, to the Trump presidency. They're hoping they can get some kind of a deal on Ukraine because it fits both their and Trump's predilections, this idea of the great powers determining the fate of the world. Of course, Kiev might actually have other views.

But at the very least, they are looking forward to what happens in terms of disruption within the Western alliance as regards Trump's policies, particularly if let's say we have a trade war with Europe or something similar. From their point of view, disruption is almost as good as agreement.

Mark, thank you. That's Russia expert Mark Gagliotti. Tomorrow, we'll be continuing our series looking back at 2024 from a global security perspective by focusing on the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, with The Times' Maxim Tucker. But until then, that is it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.

How can governments play a pivotal role as the world shifts? From decarbonizing the economy to sustainable care systems, bold government strategies are needed now more than ever. Get informed by listening to Government Insights, the new podcast from EY Parthenon. This series explores how government executives can transform their strategies into actions that are future-proof and sustainable.

Government Insights is out now. Download today wherever you get your podcasts.