What Trump’s win could mean for Israeli settlers
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A firefighter soaks a burning car on the outskirts of Ramallah in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Local resident Alma Tasrabila Omar says he was awoken by the sound of explosions and found a group of Israeli settlers torching cars. We were ready for them to march in and shoot us and kill us. That was what we thought was going to happen.

Amal Abdel-Haleem, a Palestinian American, was doing schoolwork at her family's house in the West Bank when her home was attacked. We heard gunshots and windows breaking. It was terrifying. I've never experienced something like this in my life. Violence by Jewish settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank has drawn international condemnation and sanctions by the U.S. and European countries.

Now, the leaders of the settler movement reject this violence and say it has no place in their cause. They say this expansion is essential to the survival of Israel. And their hope and belief is that the next US president agrees. It touches on one of the most contentious issues between Israel, the Palestinians, and the international community in this decades-long conflict.

Most countries deem Jewish settlements built on land Israel captured in 1967 to be illegal. Israel disputes this and cites historical and biblical ties to the land. On today's weekend episode of Reuters World News, the jubilant view of Donald Trump from Israel and what, if anything, we can glean from his staunchly pro-Israel cabinet picks about his stance in the Middle East.

Will the Israelis find a fierce defender in the 47th president? Or will he go his own way? I'm your host, Jonah Green. Settlement construction in the West Bank reached record levels in 2023.

But since the war started in Gaza last October, that activity has exploded. Criticism from the Biden administration has done nothing to stop it. Essentially, it's a dispute where you have international law butting up against claims of biblical entitlement. And it's a microcosm of the broader regional conflict.

Our senior political correspondent, Jonathan Saul, spent some time with the leaders of this group in these settlements and joins us now from Jerusalem. Hi, Jonathan. Hi, Jonah. So you've written a piece about the view from Israel and these settlements in particular over Trump's victory. And I want to unpack that view and whether it's an accurate read as to what Trump might in fact do in his second term in this region. But I first want to talk about these settlements.

You spent the last few weeks speaking with the people there. How do they view the incoming president? Yeah, so I visited one of the settlements called Shiloh, which is a biblical ancient site that's revered in Judaism and the Jewish Bible and also by Christians. And essentially that's one of the places where Jewish settlers live. And essentially they see their role very much as being part of also creating facts on the ground.

And since October the 7th, they see their role as becoming very much more important to the security of the state of Israel. We believe that a strong America will mean a strong Israel. So one of the people that I met and spoke to is somebody called Eliana Pasantin. She's a resident of one of the settlements called Eli. And she also works at the Binyamin Regional Council, which is one of the big council organizations that looks after a lot of the settlements. And

And her view is very much unequivocally on the importance of the settlements and the future of what they call Judea and Samaria as being pivotal to the security of the state of Israel, but also ensuring that Jews have the right and ability to live in those areas and actually extend and expand their ability to live in those areas.

Many of the people in the new administration have been here to Shiloh with us, have prayed with us, have toured with us, have come because they understand the biblical significance and how important this is to Israel.

Palestinians view what Israeli settlers are doing from a completely different perspective. They want to create a future state under what is termed the two-state solution, and their aim is to create a state in the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital. All these areas were captured in the 1967 war. Palestinians say Jewish settlements and their expansion in the West Bank fatally undermine that aspiration. So, Jonathan, tell

Tell us about these two conflicting visions, the Palestinian and Israeli view of this land. What do these settlers say? The two sides of the issue really comprise the Israeli view and the Palestinian view. The Israeli view essentially is one where they see their divine and biblical right to settle in areas

under Judea and Samaria, which is the biblical name for the areas in question. And they see that as very much their role and their right to do so. The Palestinians see it completely differently. They see those areas as areas where there are lots of Palestinian villages and towns, and essentially they want that as part of the rump for a future Palestinian state. So if land is taken

and settlers and settlements are expanded, that's going to compromise any possibility for them to have their own contiguous state, which would be called Palestine. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, one of the most prominent pro-settler government ministers, has said he hopes Israel could absorb the West Bank as early as next year, with the support of the Trump administration.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not announced any official decision on the matter, and a spokesman for his office declined to comment.

Senior Palestine Liberation Organization official Wazel Abu Youssef said any such action by the Israeli government, quote, will not change the truth that this is Palestinian land. Now, Jonathan, we opened our show today talking about these violent attacks by Israeli settlers against Palestinians, which the group's leadership condemns. But if not through violence or intimidation,

How exactly are these settlements growing so rapidly on disputed land?

In principle, the idea is that they are using land which has been appropriated by the State of Israel, and they purchase the land to build settlements. That's the official, authorised, so to speak, way of doing it. But there's also these so-called outposts, essentially they're illegal gatherings of people, either farms or caravans that just appear in areas of uninhabited land between Palestinian villages, towns,

and Israeli settlements, and they just turn up and start living there. And then the next step is to try and establish themselves as a recognised small area, a small village, and then gain status. Once they gain status, then it becomes easier to put, as they call, so-called facts on the ground, where they become a recognised settlement. But in principle, expansion is already taking place de facto by the state, by appropriating land, which then becomes controlled by the official institutions

Israel land authority, and then it's up to the groupings, whatever they might be, settlers or potential buyers of land, to acquire that from the state. They don't see that as illegal in any shape or form because as far as they're concerned, they're buying land that's recognised by the state. Of course, international law and the international community takes a different view on that, but that's how they perceive their acquisition of this land. What is the current US view of this expansion and

And how might that soon change? The Biden administration, like every single successive US administration apart from the first Trump government, has been opposed to expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank on the basis that they see it as a disruptor to any peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians, but also that it takes away any possibility for a contiguous Palestinian state. Trump, on the other hand,

completely uprooted that principle by tacitly acknowledging the Jewish right to settle in the West Bank. And he also recognised the sovereignty of the Golan Heights. So he already created a change in the legal structure and legal parameters of what previous US governments have held. The big question is, what is he going to do next when he comes into power? He certainly appointed very pro-settlement figures the next generation.

ambassador for the US to Israel is Mike Huckabee. Mike Huckabee has unequivocally said he only recognises Judea and Samaria. He does not recognise Palestinian state or any Palestinian rights or claims to the West Bank. Whether that has any impact upon Trump and Trump's decision makers is a big question mark. Huckabee himself has said it in interviews in the past couple of weeks.

He cannot dictate the course of action that Trump will pursue. But certainly all the indications and signs are that they're certainly much more open to the idea of it than Biden's administration or previous Democrat and previous Republican administrations as well, who certainly held a level of caution, if not alarm at growth of settlements by Israelis.

So you're in Jerusalem. What's been the reaction to Trump's victory there? Across Israel, when the results started to filter through of Trump's victory, there was a sigh of relief across many parts of Israel, rightly or wrongly, the perception being that Trump was much more supportive of Israel. There was even a massive banner across a building in Jerusalem which said, "Trump make Israel great again." That very much encapsulates and sums up the mood of a lot of Israelis.

Within Israel, you then have to break it down into the ones who are supportive, if not directly involved in settlement expansion. And they see this as their best opportunity to consolidate their control over the West Bank, but also that they see potential for greater support by the Trump administration for them to carry out a lot more activities which will not just expand, but also consolidate their control over that area.

Trump has not revealed his plans for the region. His transition spokeswoman, Caroline Leavitt, did not answer questions about policy, saying only that he would, quote, restore peace through strength around the world. Jonathan, there are risks to Trump giving his full support to the settlers, right? It would bury any hope of a two-state solution of an independent Palestine and complicate efforts to

to resolve the war in Gaza and Lebanon. And it would also put at risk a potential deal with Saudi Arabia. There's certainly a perception that Trump is going to be a lot easier than Biden. But Trump is essentially a businessman, and he certainly takes that approach to his negotiations. And he's not going to jeopardize the potential for a full peace accord with Saudi Arabia and Israel, which will certainly catapult him into superstardom in terms of being able to make peace, especially after reaching the Abraham Accords with other Gulf

Gulf Arab states. The view from the Saudi side is markedly different to what Israel might expect, and it's going to influence Trump's considerations. We've seen in recent days, very strong statements coming out from the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, otherwise known as MBS, has said unequivocally that a Palestinian state must be established. He's also spoken very critically of Israel's war in Gaza. And these are all considerations that Trump will take into account as

especially seeing as he very much wants to secure and conclude and clinch a deal between Israel and Saudi. So all of these factors are going to bear heavily upon his appetite and his ability to accept a lot of the expectations that the proponents of the settlements are hoping for. So what you're saying is Trump has appointed these very staunchly pro-Israel

cabinet members, whether it's Secretary of State, Ambassador to the United Nations, and of course, Ambassador to Israel, but he necessarily is not bound by what they believe. Essentially, Trump is very much his own man. And certainly when I've been talking to people within the settlement movement, they recognize that it's not a sort of linear straight line where they propose and Trump will accept it.

And certainly he's surrounded by people who are much more favourable to the settlement movement, but that's not the same as him actually accepting it. And even the proposed ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, has said it in various interviews in the past couple of weeks, that he does not have the final say. That's up to the president to determine that.

And that's going to be a very big factor. And I think it's something that Netanyahu is not publicly acknowledging, but it's going to be a big factor whether or not it does actually translate into the way that he hopes it will. How is a two-state solution viewed within Israel?

Well, certainly inside Israel, the idea of a two-state solution is not one that's been proposed by anyone within the political spectrum. Even the mainstream centre have realised that there's no possibility of that, given what happened on October 7th. There's nobody really to talk to, there's nobody really to trust. At the

At the same time, the international community sees this as very much their effort to try and secure some kind of stabilisation, given they fear that the violence will spill over and impact upon the rest of the region, but also increasingly certain European states in favour of a Palestinian state being created. The question is whether or not it will translate into anything. We've had decades where there's

there's been efforts to try and secure a two-state solution. It's still very much a possibility and prospect with certainly Western countries and some Muslim countries. The more hardline, radical Muslim countries do not accept a Palestinian state the way it's been framed by Israel, but certainly they are also pushing for recognition of a sovereign Palestinian state. Is there any sense of how a President Trump in a second term might

rein in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ambitions in the region, whether that's in Gaza or Lebanon, given that Trump might want to be seen as a peacemaker.

Well, certainly Trump has already made very clear noises and he's made very, very sort of explicit statements about he wants everything wrapped up by that, the war in Gaza, the war in Lebanon. And Israel is mindful of that. Trump is very much unpredictable and it creates a lot more uncertainty as to the direction that he might travel in. Certainly with the Biden administration, despite all the noise and rhetoric in Israel, he's provided rock solid support for Israel, albeit he's had a lot of tensions within his own camp,

be it from the more pro-Gaza Democrats. But nonetheless, he's certainly held the line in terms of his support for Israel. The question that people are asking is how much support Trump will provide, even though he has got a number of very pro-settlement and pro-Israeli supporters and also colleagues in his cabinet and

and certainly his government. Nonetheless, notwithstanding that, he could make a complete about-face and go for very specific requirements. This will put a lot of pressure on Netanyahu, who has not only sold the idea that he's got a direct relationship with Trump. So it will be interesting to see what happens next. Now I've heard reports

I've heard from leaders of the settler movement that Trump is open-minded to all kinds of possibilities. He does not have a fixed position on the region and the conflict. But notwithstanding all of that, I think one of his main goals is to ensure that he can go down in the history books as the one who finally sealed a peace deal between the Saudis and the Israelis, and by extension, minimise the tensions, violence and conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

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Thanks again to Jonathan for his reporting and for coming on the show to speak with us. Reuters World News is produced by Gail Issa, Sharon Reich-Garson, David Spencer, Christopher Waljasper, and me, Jonah Green. Our senior producers are Tara Oakes and Carmel Crimmins. Our executive producer is Lila Dikretzer. Sound design and musical composition by Josh Sommer. We'll be back on Monday with our daily headline show.

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