Deep Dive
Why is Iran considered a significant loser in recent global developments?
Iran has lost its main terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, its state client, Assad, and much of its military capability. Additionally, U.S. and Israel defeated two Iranian missile attacks, reducing Iran's ability to threaten Israel.
What opportunities does Iran's weakened state present for the U.S. and its allies?
It allows for deeper integration and normalization between Israel and its Arab neighbors. However, there's also a risk that Iran might pursue a nuclear weapon due to its losses, which needs careful monitoring.
What is the best-case scenario for U.S.-China relations in the next four years?
The best-case scenario is 'long-term managed competition,' where the U.S. and China compete vigorously but responsibly to avoid conflict, maintain open communication, and find areas of mutual interest to collaborate.
What is the worst-case scenario for U.S.-China relations?
The worst-case scenario is a downward spiral leading to increased risk of conflict, potentially around Taiwan, the South China Sea, or an unexpected contingency.
How has the Biden administration strengthened NATO?
When Biden took office, nine NATO allies met the 2% defense spending commitment. By the end of his term, 23 allies are hitting that mark, with the rest on track to do so, making NATO stronger and more unified.
What is Jake Sullivan's hope for the future of Ukraine under a potential Trump administration?
Sullivan hopes that the incoming administration recognizes the need for continued U.S. support to give Ukraine leverage in negotiations, ensuring a just peace and deterring future Russian aggression.
Why might Putin return to attack Ukraine again in the future?
Putin's history shows a pattern of rebuilding and re-engaging after setbacks. To prevent this, the U.S. and allies must commit to long-term support, anchoring Ukraine in Western institutions for its security and deterrence.
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