cover of episode Russian conscripts and Ukraine's Kursk offensive

Russian conscripts and Ukraine's Kursk offensive

2024/8/17

The Naked Pravda

A

Alexander (Conscript)

K

Kevin Rothrock

M

Mark Krutov

S

Sergey Dobrynin

V

Vladimir Putin

Kevin Rothrock：对乌克兰在库尔斯克发起的突然袭击进行了概述，重点关注其进展、平民撤离以及普京对此事件的反应。他还强调了使用应征士兵这一敏感问题。 Mark Krutov：详细分析了乌克兰军队突破俄罗斯边境防线的过程，指出俄军主要由缺乏战斗经验的应征士兵把守边境，他们无力阻止乌克兰军队的快速推进。他还讨论了负责边境安全的部队，例如北方集团，以及他们当时在哈尔科夫地区的部署情况。他分析了库尔斯克攻势的责任归属问题，认为可能是由于俄罗斯情报不足或指挥官未能重视情报。他还比较了库尔斯克战况与哈尔科夫反攻和顿巴斯战线的相似之处，指出乌克兰的攻势已经减缓，并讨论了未来可能形成的固定战线。 Sergey Dobrynin：深入探讨了俄军不同类型士兵（应征士兵、合同兵、动员兵）之间的区别，并解释了俄罗斯法律对使用应征士兵的限制。他分析了克里姆林宫为何不愿将更多战斗部队从顿巴斯调往库尔斯克，以及使用应征士兵的政治敏感性。他还讨论了应征士兵家属可能采取的行动以及克里姆林宫对这些抗议的应对策略。 Vladimir Putin：普京在2022年3月发表声明，声称只有职业军人参与特别军事行动，没有应征士兵，也不计划动用应征士兵。 Alexander (Conscript)：一名应征士兵讲述了他们在乌克兰军队袭击时的混乱和缺乏指令的经历，突显了俄军指挥失误和士兵缺乏准备的情况。 Mark Krutov: 对库尔斯克战役中俄军防御薄弱的原因进行了深入分析，指出俄军在边境部署的主要是缺乏战斗经验的应征士兵，他们无力阻止乌克兰军队的快速推进。他还分析了俄军指挥系统的问题，认为情报不足或指挥官未能重视情报可能是导致此次事件的主要原因。此外，他还比较了库尔斯克战役与之前哈尔科夫反攻的相似之处，指出俄军在两场战役中都存在兵力不足和指挥不力的现象。最后，他还对乌克兰在库尔斯克战役中的进展进行了预测，认为乌克兰的攻势已经减缓，未来可能形成固定战线。 Sergey Dobrynin: 详细解释了俄军不同类型士兵（应征士兵、合同兵、动员兵）的定义和区别，并分析了俄罗斯法律对使用应征士兵的限制。他认为，克里姆林宫不愿将更多战斗部队从顿巴斯调往库尔斯克的主要原因是出于政治考量，因为使用应征士兵的政治风险较高。他还分析了应征士兵家属可能采取的行动以及克里姆林宫对这些抗议的应对策略，认为克里姆林宫有能力控制这种局面，但仍会感到困扰。

Deep Dive

Ukrainian forces advanced about 17 miles into Russia's Kursk region, surprising many. They encountered Russian conscripts stationed in trenches along the border, who were quickly taken as prisoners. The responsibility for the border's defense falls on the FSB border guards and the Sever Group, but their effectiveness has been questioned.

Ukrainian forces made a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region.
Russian conscripts were the first line of defense and were quickly captured.
The effectiveness of the FSB border guards and Sever Group is under scrutiny.

Shownotes Transcript

It’s been almost two weeks since the Ukrainian Armed Forces smashed through Russia’s border defenses in the Kursk region and began a surprise offensive that has advanced about 17 miles at its deepest point, according to Meduza’s estimates. Regional officials in Kursk have evacuated towns along the Ukrainian border, and more than 120,000 people have been forced to leave their homes. Vladimir Putin has met several times with top national security officials, but Russia’s president hasn’t yet bothered to make a national address, even though part of the country — a real part of the country, not just Ukrainian lands that Moscow claims — is now under foreign occupation.

At the same time, Russian troops are still attacking Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas, where Kyiv remains vulnerable after months of slow Russian advances. The world is watching to see if the Kursk incursion can force the Kremlin to pull soldiers from eastern Ukraine.

One of the most sensitive issues inside Russia related to Ukraine’s Kursk offensive is the use of conscript soldiers. To discuss the course of the Kursk incursion and to understand why sending conscripts into Russia’s new conflict zone is so tricky, The Naked Pravda spoke to RFE/RL journalists Mark Krutov) and Sergey Dobrynin), who have tracked the war closely and recently wrote an article) addressing how the Russian military plans to use conscripts amid Kyiv’s offensive in Kursk.

Timestamps for this episode:

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(3:04) How Ukraine penetrated Russia’s border so easily

(9:10) Comparisons to previous incursions and Ukraine’s Kharkiv counteroffensive

(16:10) The role and impact of conscripts

(29:00) Political sensitivity and Russian public reactions

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