cover of episode What Americans actually believe

What Americans actually believe

2024/12/13
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Foreign Podicy

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Bradley Bowman
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Roger Zakheim
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Bradley Bowman: 本期节目讨论了美国民众在国防和外交政策上的真实想法,并指出政治家们经常以自身政策为出发点来解读民意。 Roger Zakheim: 里根国家防务调查显示,多数美国人支持美国在国际事务中发挥领导作用,这一比例在年轻人中尤其高。即使是特朗普的支持者中,也有相当一部分人支持这一观点。此外,大多数美国人支持美国在海外保持军事存在,这并非对无限战争的支持,而是为了威慑和维护和平。 该调查还显示,美国民众普遍认为中国是美国面临的最大威胁,其次是俄罗斯。在对乌克兰的支持问题上,存在党派差异,但总体而言,多数美国人支持继续向乌克兰提供武器援助。 在中东问题上,美国民众对以色列的支持度存在分歧,但大多数人支持释放被哈马斯扣押的美国人质。 此外,大多数美国人支持增加国防开支,但他们对美国国防开支的实际规模存在误解。他们普遍担心削减国防开支以应对国家债务问题。 最后,该调查显示,美国民众希望军队能够同时应对多场重大军事行动,并支持增加国防生产投资。 Roger Zakheim: 里根研究所的年度民调显示,美国民众对国防和外交政策的看法与华盛顿的普遍认知存在差异。大多数美国人希望美国在国际事务中发挥领导作用,这一观点在年轻人和特朗普的支持者中尤其突出。他们支持美国在海外保持军事存在,这并非意味着他们支持无限战争,而是认为这是维护和平和威慑潜在侵略者的必要手段。 关于主要威胁,民调显示,美国民众普遍认为中国是最大的威胁,其次是俄罗斯。对乌克兰的支持度存在党派差异,但总体而言,多数美国人支持继续向乌克兰提供武器援助。 在中东问题上,民调显示,美国民众对以色列的支持度存在分歧,但大多数人支持释放被哈马斯扣押的美国人质。 关于国防开支,民调显示,大多数美国人支持增加国防开支,但他们对美国国防开支的实际规模存在误解。他们普遍担心削减国防开支以应对国家债务问题。 最后,民调显示,美国民众希望军队能够同时应对多场重大军事行动,并支持增加国防生产投资。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why do politicians often misrepresent what Americans believe on defense and foreign policy issues?

Politicians' assertions about American beliefs often reflect the policies they are trying to promote rather than the actual views of the public.

What does the Reagan National Defense Survey reveal about American views on U.S. leadership in the world?

57% of Americans believe the U.S. should take a lead role in international events, a 15-point increase from the previous year. Notably, 61% of Trump voters and 59% of Harris voters support this view.

How do young Americans view U.S. engagement in global affairs according to the survey?

Young Americans, particularly those under 30, show a significant increase in support for U.S. leadership, with a 32-point rise among those under 30 and a 19-point rise among those aged 30-44.

What does the survey indicate about American support for U.S. military presence overseas?

62% of Americans support maintaining a U.S. military presence overseas, with 62% of Trump voters also in favor. This indicates a rejection of the idea of fortress America.

Which country is viewed as the greatest threat to the U.S. according to the survey?

China is seen as the greatest threat by 49% of Americans, followed by Russia (15%), North Korea, and Iran.

How do Trump voters and Harris voters differ in their views on who the greatest threat is?

61% of Trump voters see China as the greatest threat, while 40% of Harris voters view Russia as the top threat, with China at 37%.

What does the survey reveal about American support for providing weapons to Ukraine?

55% of Americans support continuing to send weapons to Ukraine, with 68% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans in favor. This is slightly lower than previous surveys.

How do Americans view Israel's right to continue military operations in Gaza?

45% of Americans believe Israel has the right to continue military operations until the threat from Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran is removed, while 45% favor a ceasefire. There is a strong partisan divide, with 64% of Trump voters supporting continued operations and 63% of Harris voters favoring a ceasefire.

What does the survey indicate about American support for defense spending?

79% of Americans either strongly or somewhat support increasing defense spending, with 88% of Trump voters in favor. This is the highest level of support recorded in the survey.

How does the public perceive the current level of U.S. defense spending?

Many Americans overestimate defense spending, with 32% believing it accounts for 26-50% of the federal budget, and 16% thinking it's 51-75%. In reality, defense spending is at historic lows, around 2.9% of GDP.

What does the survey reveal about concerns over national debt affecting defense spending?

69% of Americans are concerned that efforts to address national debt will lead to cuts in defense spending, with 77% of Trump voters sharing this concern.

What kind of military does the survey suggest Americans believe the U.S. should have?

41% of Americans believe the military should be large enough to win separate wars against Russia and China simultaneously, and 73% support increased investment in defense production.

Shownotes Transcript

It seems a favorite pastime of leaders in Washington is telling us — Americans — what we believe and what we want. Such assertions by politicians are sometimes true, but they inevitably reflect the policy the politician is attempting to promulgate.   So what do Americans actually believe when it comes to key defense and foreign policy issues? We don’t have to guess, thanks to the Reagan National Defense Survey. The Washington Director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, Roger Zakheim, joins guest host Bradley Bowman to share the latest survey’s findings.