cover of episode E65: Russia's Options on Ukraine Remain Varied and Flexible

E65: Russia's Options on Ukraine Remain Varied and Flexible

2022/2/4
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Mason Clark
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Mason Clark分析了当前俄罗斯在乌克兰边境的军事态势,以及克里姆林宫可能采取的行动。他指出,自2021年10月以来,俄罗斯在乌克兰边境进行了大规模军事集结,随后提出了严厉的安全要求,并与美国和北约进行了外交谈判。Clark认为,俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰的可能性较小,因为这将付出巨大的经济和人员伤亡代价,并且在国际社会上造成负面影响。然而,他认为克里姆林宫可能会采取其他军事行动,例如向白俄罗斯永久部署部队,或公开向顿巴斯地区部署部队,以削弱乌克兰军队并迫使乌克兰做出让步。他还指出,西方媒体对当前局势的报道缺乏细致的分析,仅仅关注俄罗斯是否入侵乌克兰,而忽略了其他可能的军事行动。Clark认为,俄罗斯的军事部署将对乌克兰和北约产生长期影响,这将是一个长期性的危机。 Jacob Taylor作为主持人,主要负责引导访谈,提出问题,并对Mason Clark的观点进行总结和补充。他并没有表达自己明确的观点,而是更多地扮演了引导者和信息传递者的角色。在访谈中,他主要负责提出问题,引导Mason Clark对俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上的军事部署、外交策略以及潜在的军事行动进行详细的阐述。同时,Jacob Taylor也对访谈内容进行了总结,并对访谈的重点进行了强调。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the military buildup around Ukraine since October 2021, including Russia's security demands and diplomatic negotiations with the US and NATO. It details the escalation of the situation, the Russian security demands, and the US and NATO's response. The chapter concludes with the US officially rejecting Russia's demands and anticipates potential Russian military actions.
  • Major Russian military buildup around Ukraine since October 2021
  • Russian security demands in December 2021
  • Diplomatic negotiations with the US and NATO in January 2022
  • US rejection of Russian demands
  • Anticipation of potential Russian military actions

Shownotes Transcript

Russia continues to increase its military forces poised on Ukraine's border. The situation is tense, deadly, and complicated. On this episode, ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark explains the current military picture and what he and his team believe will happen next.