cover of episode E64: Iran’s Proxies to Fight to Maintain Influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in 2022

E64: Iran’s Proxies to Fight to Maintain Influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in 2022

2022/1/12
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Kat Lawler
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Zach Coles
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Kat Lawler分析了伊朗支持的代理组织在2021年的活动，以及它们对美国及其盟友构成的威胁。她指出，2021年发生了首次伊朗代理无人机袭击美国在伊拉克和叙利亚的事件，并预测在2022年，随着美国从伊拉克撤军，袭击可能会恢复，主要发生在叙利亚东部，并可能造成大量人员伤亡。她还分析了伊拉克大选后伊朗代理组织与萨德尔之间的权力斗争，以及对政府组建和美国撤军方式的内部竞争，这可能导致进一步的暴力和不稳定。此外，她还讨论了索莱马尼和穆罕迪斯去世后，伊朗对其在伊拉克的代理力量的控制力下降，导致代理组织之间目标和方法的冲突，以及对伊朗指令的服从度降低，这增加了地区不稳定的风险。 Zach Coles则关注黎巴嫩真主党面临的挑战，包括黎巴嫩的经济崩溃、政治僵局以及与以色列的冲突风险。他指出，这些都可能导致真主党行为的不可预测性，并可能使其转向军事手段来维持其影响力。他还分析了真主党正在为与以色列的潜在冲突做准备，伊朗向真主党提供了精确制导武器和其他先进武器，这增加了地区冲突升级的风险。他认为，地区冲突爆发的可能性很高，潜在的导火索包括伊拉克、叙利亚、也门、黎巴嫩和伊朗国内局势，以及以色列对伊朗核计划的潜在打击、伊朗对美军的升级以及伊核协议谈判的破裂。

Deep Dive

Chapters
In 2021, Iranian proxies launched drone and rocket attacks on US forces and facilities in Iraq and Syria. Following the end of the US combat mission in Iraq, attacks on US forces decreased in Iraq but continued in Syria. Looking ahead to 2022, a resumption of attacks in Iraq and continued attacks in Syria are anticipated.
  • First Iranian proxy drone attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria in April 2021
  • Continued large-scale attacks through end of July 2021
  • Ceasefire announced by Iranian proxies after US announced end of combat mission in Iraq
  • Anticipation of attacks resuming in Iraq and continuing in Syria in 2022
  • Concerns over insufficient US defenses against drone attacks

Shownotes Transcript

Iran-backed proxy militant networks played massive roles in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in 2021. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Researchers Kat Lawlor and Zach Coles to discuss what Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” may do in 2022. Kat and Zach will also offer insight into the challenges and opportunities facing the Iraqi and Lebanese governments.