cover of episode Can Russia Rebuild Its Military? An Examination of the Russian Military's Wartime Reform Plans

Can Russia Rebuild Its Military? An Examination of the Russian Military's Wartime Reform Plans

2023/2/28
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Overwatch
People
C
Carolina Hurd
F
Frederick W. Kagan
G
George Barros
J
James Dubik
K
Kateryna Stepanenko
Topics
Frederick W. Kagan 认为俄罗斯在乌克兰战争期间宣布的大规模军事改革计划，旨在重建俄罗斯地面部队，并对部队结构和构成进行重大调整，包括扩大军队规模，重建军区，组建新的部队，但其可行性值得商榷，需要与美国和苏联的军事改革经验进行比较。他还指出，俄罗斯的军事改革需要其保持战时状态，这需要其持续的战争状态和民众的支持，并需要大量的资金和物资支持，这在非全面动员的情况下难以实现。此外，俄罗斯对时间和空间关系的判断存在偏差，这将影响其军事改革的成功。其军事改革的目标可能是为了应对北约，但这在短期内极难实现。持续支持乌克兰是阻止俄罗斯重建军事力量的关键。 James Dubik 认为俄罗斯的计划与其说是改革，不如说是对现有军事力量的调整和适应。他指出，美国在越南战争后的军队改革是一个长达12到15年的过程，而俄罗斯计划在三年内完成类似规模的改革是不现实的。俄罗斯军队实际兵力与计划兵力之间存在差距，领导力的缺乏是其军事改革面临的主要挑战。重建军区相对容易，但三年内组建12个新的机动师极具挑战性。俄罗斯的训练体系主要侧重于个体训练，而非集体训练，这将影响其新部队的战斗力。俄罗斯需要改进其集体训练模式，并协调个体训练和集体训练的进度，以确保新部队能够及时投入作战。俄罗斯可以通过精挑细选领导干部，并依靠高超的战略战术水平来弥补部队质量的不足，但这需要精密的协调和计划。低迷的士气将成为俄罗斯部队组建和部署过程中的一个重要阻力因素。 Carolina Hurd 指出俄罗斯军事改革计划的实施需要其训练体系的同步改革，尤其需要关注训练机构的吞吐能力，需要同时满足人员补充和新部队组建的需求。 Kateryna Stepanenko 提出俄罗斯如何在已有大量兵力投入乌克兰战争的情况下，实施大规模军事改革的问题。 George Barros 关注低迷的士气将如何影响俄罗斯的部队组建工作。

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Shownotes Transcript

Russian leaders have set forth a plan to significantly expand the Russian military in the coming years. This ambitious plan involves the creation of numerous new units and military districts as well as significant improvements in organization and capability. On this episode of Overwatch, Critical Threats Project Director Frederick W. Kagan and Retired Army General James Dubik discuss the feasibility of the Russian plan and its likely goals. They also discuss the challenges and benefits that come with undertaking this reform and expansion while the Russian military is actively engaged in a costly war with Ukraine. Dubik and Kagan assess the Russian plan by comparing it to Soviet and American training and reform efforts during and between other wars of the 20th and 21st centuries. This discussion also considers the Russian plan's implications for NATO.