cover of episode China's Interest in an Expanded BRICS

China's Interest in an Expanded BRICS

2024/11/20
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China Global
People
A
Alexander Gabuev
B
Bonnie Glaser
Topics
Bonnie Glaser概述了金砖国家（BRICS）的起源和发展，以及最近在俄罗斯喀山举行的BRICS+峰会。她强调了中国在该集团中日益增长的领导作用，以及理解BRICS+如何适应中国外交政策战略和BRICS机制未来作用的重要性。 Alexander Gabuev深入探讨了BRICS的起源、目标和演变。他指出，BRICS最初是高盛提出的一个经济概念，后来在俄罗斯的推动下发展成为一个政治组织。他分析了BRICS如何适应中国的外交政策目标，特别是在中国日益重视全球南方的大背景下。他认为，中国对全球南方的态度是模棱两可的，既是全球南方的一部分，又是一个独立的实体。Gabuev还讨论了中国在BRICS中的主导地位，以及它如何与其他成员国（如印度和巴西）的利益和观点相协调。他指出，自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，俄罗斯已成为中国的反西方力量和支持者，进一步增强了中国在BRICS内部的影响力。他还分析了俄罗斯和中国在BRICS+中的利益是否完全一致，以及它们在全球治理改革方面的差异。Gabuev认为，中国希望在塑造后单极世界中发挥更重要的作用，但其倡导的规范并不清晰，存在一些矛盾之处。他指出，俄罗斯的目标是推翻美国在现有国际体系中的领导地位，而中国则希望对其进行调整。Gabuev还讨论了扩大BRICS对中国议程的影响，以及中国在领导一个多元化且成员利益不同的多边组织方面面临的挑战。他分析了喀山宣言中值得注意的内容，以及它对BRICS未来行动方向的启示。他还讨论了创建BRICS货币的可能性，以及中国在这一问题上的立场。Gabuev认为，中国更感兴趣的是创建一个绕过SWIFT等国际体系的交易结算基础设施，以减少美元的作用，增加人民币的作用，并使其经济对美国制裁更具免疫力。他指出，虽然创建BRICS货币的可能性很小，但并非完全不可能。他还讨论了美国国内金融状况对其他国家减少对美元依赖的影响，以及BRICS为非西方国家探索减少对美元依赖的解决方案提供了一个平台。最后，Gabuev讨论了特朗普的回归对中国和俄罗斯如何利用BRICS+来推进自身利益的影响，以及美国应该如何回应日益多极化的世界和中国在全球治理改革中的主导地位。他建议美国应该解决其财政状况问题，并在数字货币等领域赶上其他国家，在国际组织中寻求更广泛的代表性，并与那些希望维护现有体系的BRICS成员国合作。 Bonnie Glaser对金砖国家（BRICS）的起源和发展，以及中国在该集团中日益增长的领导作用进行了简要概述。她强调了理解BRICS+如何适应中国外交政策战略和BRICS机制未来作用的重要性。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the origins of BRICS, highlighting its initial conception by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill as a framework for investment and its subsequent transformation into a significant geopolitical bloc driven by Russia's initiative. It discusses the goals and purposes of BRICS and how these have shifted over time, particularly in relation to the underrepresentation of developing economies in global financial institutions.
  • BRICS initially conceived by Goldman Sachs as an investment framework.
  • Russia's pivotal role in giving BRICS a political life.
  • The global credit crunch of 2008-2009 as a catalyst for BRICS's growth.
  • BRICS's aim to address underrepresentation of developing economies in the IMF and World Bank.

Shownotes Transcript

The BRICS+ summit was held in the Russian city of Kazan this past October. The original BRICS comprised four countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The first meeting that they held was in 2009. South Africa joined in 2011. BRICS has now grown to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. The recent summit also invited 13 countries to the group as partner states. Countries that have expressed interest in joining BRICS include Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand (which is a U.S. treaty ally), and Turkey (which is a member of NATO).

As countries in the Global South flock to form an increasingly significant geopolitical bloc in which China has assumed a leading role, it is important to understand how BRICS+ fits into China’s foreign policy strategy and the role that the BRICS mechanism is likely to play going forward. To discuss these issues, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center which is based in Berlin. His research focuses on Chinese and Russian foreign policy. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:37] Behind the Creation of BRICS

[04:08] BRICS+ in China’s Foreign Policy Objectives

[06:20] Domination of China in BRICS+

[09:13] Russian and Chinese Interest in BRICS+

[14:16] China and the Expansion of BRICS

[18:07] Noteworthiness of the Kazan Declaration

[21:10] Possibility of a BRICS Currency

[28:11] BRICS+ and U.S. Policy Under Donald Trump

[30:26] Responding to BRICS+ and a Multipolar World