International Traffic in the Taiwan Strait, China's Interests in Ukraine, Shigeru Ishiba Elected in Japan
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Welcome to China Insider, a podcast from the Hudson Institute's China Center. I'm Myles Yu, Senior Fellow and Director of the China Center. Join me each week for our analysis of the major events concerning China, China threat, and their implications to the U.S. and beyond. It's Tuesday, October 1st, and I'm Phil Hegseth alongside Hudson Institute expert Myles Yu.

We start this week in the Taiwan Strait, where for the first time ever, a Japanese destroyer sailed through the strait. On the same day, naval vessels from Australia and New Zealand also sailed together through the disputed waterway. Add in that in September, Germany sent its first ever ship through the strait as well, and you've got a new international pattern developing in a potential regional flashpoint. Miles gives us the background behind the Taiwanese Strait and its importance for setting the tone with regard to international partnership against Chinese aggression.

Second, with President Zelensky meeting both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump last week, we asked Miles what the state of the Ukraine war is, but specifically through the lens of how China is seeing and fueling the conflict, and what the CCP's interests are when looking at any kind of resolution to the war. Finally, Miles profiles the newly elected Prime Minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba.

where he lands on the U.S.-China axis, and whether we can expect the Japanese lurch towards international involvement and global leadership to continue. All right, good to see you, Myles. Good to see you, Phil. Good morning. So we jump into the Taiwan Strait first this week. So last week, it was very busy in the Strait, and we actually saw for the first time

A Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer transit the Taiwanese Strait. That was last Wednesday. On the same day, you also saw Australian and New Zealand ships transit the Strait together. That was a first for the Japanese. Also in September, a warship from Germany transited the Strait for the first time. So lots of firsts.

So, Myles, we understand the significance of the Strait, but let's dig into two things. One, the role that the naval patrols in particular play. And then second, what the status quo is of the Strait right now. So let me just start with why naval presence in the Taiwan Strait by the Allies is very important. First of all,

This is a deterrence. You have to really have a show of force to be there. And this kind of show of force started in June 1950, the day after the Korean War broke out. President Truman ordered the 7th Fleet, which was the end station in Japan, to...

enter the Taiwan Strait to prevent further escalation of warfare because mainland China, they want to invade Taiwan at that time. That's why deterrence is very important. But also operationally, it's very important to have a constant naval patrol in the Taiwan Strait in the face of China's constant threat provides an invaluable early warning operation. Thirdly, to have a constant

US and allies naval presence in the Taiwan Strait is an operational necessity because this naval presence could connect Taiwan and Penghu Island with Taiwan-held offshore islands, which are very close to mainland coastline. You know, the US defense pledge

for Taiwan always consists only Taiwan island itself and also the Pescalores also known as Penhu. But not the offshore islands close to China including the Kimoi and Matsui. So therefore if you have a warfare China is going to take Kimoi and Matsui first and you have a naval presence over there and then you can really serve to much

much better to connect the Taiwan Islands and the Pascualas Islands and with Chemo and Machu. That has always been an operational necessity. Now, even though there's no treaty obligation or legal obligation for the U.S. to defend the offshore islands, but the Congress specifically authorized the president to use operational discretion.

to use force to defend those offshore islands. So that's why operationally it's very important for us to have a constant naval presence. But most importantly, really, Taiwan Strait is an international water. Everybody, including United States, Japan,

Canada, Singapore, all the navies have the right to pass through. So it's not China's territorial water. So that's why it's very important to uphold the international law. Okay. Humor me. So the Taiwan Strait is about 130 kilometers wide.

at its narrowest, and how far out into international waters do the territorial claims of China and Taiwan respectively reach? 130 kilometers. Phil, I didn't know you have gone intercontinental. Oh yeah. I mean, we use miles.

We use a interior system. I'm reading all these intercontinental news sources, so that's what I'm running off of. Yeah. It's somewhere around 19 to 110 miles apart. I appreciate that. It depends on which points of contact you're talking about. So it is not really wide straight, but it's significant. So this is a natural barrier for Taiwan's defense. Ever since the US 7th Fleet had patrols

the Taiwan Strait with a regular frequency and with capital ships. So that did not change until September 1969. The newly elected president, Richard Nixon, advised by his national security advisor Henry Kissinger, decided they want to make China happier. So they ordered the suspension

of the regular patrol with the capital ships by the 7th Fleet. Instead, they changed it to patrol "on intermittent basis" with smaller ships. CSB, of course, exploited the Nixon-Kissinger weaknesses masqueraded as detente and outright made the Taiwan Strait a taboo region for decades for the US Navy to pass through.

The situation did not really begin to change until the last years of the Obama administration when China began very aggressive.

particularly in the Taiwan Strait, and they claim that Taiwan Strait is their territory. That is just really alarming to everybody. Are they claiming that their territory of waters actually extend further than they do now? Do they claim the entire strait? They use the content of shelf argument to say this is actually the Chinese water. So that's why it is very dangerous if you allow China to claim the entire strait as theirs,

Also, China has a strong sense of ownership of Taiwan Strait. Nobody else could be there except as ours. This is basically a flagrant violation of international law because that is, by all definition and global conventions, is international water. Americans began to speed up its patrol, known as the freedom of navigation operation, FONOPS.

Phone-ups, of course, Obama administration started very slowly. It spiked dramatically during the Trump administration. In the last 10 years or so, there are close to 90 passages by the U.S. Navy warships, mostly destroyers. However, more than two-thirds of them took place in the Trump administration. And then when Biden team came in, they slowed down a little bit, not by much. In 2021, for example, there were only about 11 phone-ups passing through the Taiwan Strait.

That rate remains until today. So roughly about once a month. Because of the United States' constant naval passages in the Taiwan Strait, we completely defy China's so-called red line on not passing through the Taiwan Strait with the U.S. warships. And we effectively internationalized that strait, and this has provided the best defense for Taiwan.

Well, and now it's being internationalized in another way. We've had a longstanding presence there, but the story last week was that the Australians, New Zealand, and the Japanese all passed through. So what is that shift that's happening? Well, it is important, obviously, because it indicated that this conflict, this epic conflict, has never been between the United States and China. It is indeed China versus the rest of the world.

So that's why it's very important to have friends and allies to follow our footsteps and do the same because it is to uphold the international law.

Now, you mentioned about Japan and Australia. Obviously, that is very important for them to do so. But far more importantly is the participation of German warships. Not only that, we've had following American leadership, the warships from France, Canada, Netherlands. What this means is we're talking about NATO countries.

The NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, has been advocating for NATO countries' naval presence in the strait. And the foreign policy czar of the European Union, Mr.

Boral also wrote an article in France urging EU countries to constantly send naval ships passing through the Taiwan Strait. So the Taiwan issue

has been shown to the world what truly it is. It is not an original issue. It is a global issue. Everybody should be really serious about this. Just like the issue of North Korea, the issue of Ukraine is not just an original issue. Yep. Well, and we're seeing that on this show and also...

with last week's activities. Yeah, go ahead. I might also want to add that this is not just about China's only problem in the region. China has a problem with a lot of countries, particularly in the South China Sea.

that has about five or six countries angered by the Chinese claim. What's really interesting here is for the first time ever, the navies of United States, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and the Philippines are holding joint exercises in the South China Sea.

And that is happening as we speak. So this is actually a very important, significant development as well. Okay. And moving on to our second topic. Also last week, President Trump met with President Zelensky of Ukraine in what was an interesting meeting. It was covered domestically, obviously, everywhere.

Trump was a little bit critical of Zelensky calling him the world's best salesman. I don't think that's new for him. But Miles, let's talk a little bit about where the American appetite for the war in Ukraine is. And then we'll get into how this all plays into China as well. Americans obviously are hoping to have Ukraine win over Russia's aggression and, uh,

So there's no question about that. However, you mentioned about the spot between President Trump and President Zelensky. That was real, too. It's really a reflection of Americans' growing hesitancy in providing billions and billions of dollars to Ukraine at this particular juncture. What really triggered the

spat between Trump and Zelensky was Ukrainians' eagerness to jump into the American election at this time because President Zelensky unwisely sent his ambassador to show up at one of the Colonel Harris' rallies in Pennsylvania, which is a crucial state.

And President Trump was not really happy about that. He vowed not to meet with President Zelenskyy when he came to D.C. But there are a lot of issues here as to why there was growing doubt about this war. President Trump never is someone who misses his word. He just said the war has to stop.

They stop on what condition so that's basically issue So I think there are several issues here, which is related to China as well First of all, I think the larger issue really is the war has been going on for three years Yes, Russia did not win as quickly as a plan. So this is basically also a miscalculation on Russia's side on the other hand the

Strategic stalemate in Ukraine also caused a lot of damages and lives to both sides. What really is unclear right now is the endgame. What is the victory going to be like for Ukraine? What is the Russian defeat going to be like in this conflict? So no political leader, either Russia

Ukraine or United States or even EU has provided a convincingly clear picture as to what the endgame should be like. So that's why I think there is a lot of confusion. So secondly, I think there is also, yes, there are some here victories back and forth, back and forth. But the really best example description I think about the war in Ukraine is basically it's a stalemate.

So the lack of a decisive victory for Ukraine is the pattern. Americans want to see where we're supporting, could have the potential to even win the war, the conflict. So I think the Ukrainians should really have a decisive victory to convince the Americans that Ukrainians could win. You know, the American war for independence in the late 18th century,

we had a lot of sympathizers, particularly the French and the Spanish. But they were not sure whether George Washington's Iraq Tiger Army could be the most powerful military force in the world, which is Great Britain, until October 1777, when George Washington

to beat the British in Saratoga, New York. That decisive battle, that decisive victory convinced the French and the Spanish to jump on board, officially declare alliance with the United States. So that's why we need something like Saratoga. Also, I think Americans are not very happy with the lack of sufficient support for Ukraine by the EU countries.

I know there's a lot of myth and misunderstanding about this, but overall, at least that is the impression a lot of Americans are getting. I think the biggest thing for Zelensky's ambiguous is that his dalliances with China, his illusion. He's still hoping that China could play some kind of a positive role in settlement

this war or even worse in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. That's why even though China has

openly sided with Russia on the war and provided Russia with lethal weapons and technologies to kill the Ukrainians, Zelensky has not come out openly condemning China. So he said a few words here and there critical of China, but he still is very ambiguous about his dialysis with China. Of course, it also related to United States lack of teeth.

impunishing China for its egregious action of assisting Russia in the war in Ukraine. So China is a real villain of the war, and Zelensky is not very clear on that. Therefore, in the minds of many Americans, the war in Ukraine is becoming China's proxy war in a global fight with the United States. But there's no question about it.

About the fact that Americans want Russia defeated in Ukraine. Yeah and there is also some kind of strategic calculation here too because China wants to prolong the war in Ukraine so that it could become a strategic distraction for America's focus because America's focus now is on China so they want us to shift back to focus on Europe and

And that's why it is in the interest of the United States to keep Russia defeated, to make Russia defeated in Ukraine, support Ukraine in the meantime, so that we could really go back to focus on China. Well, that was going to be my question in hearing your summary there. I think it's interesting you call Ukraine a proxy war for China. To me, that implies a heavy level of involvement and or a

at least a heavy level of interest in how it plays out, which makes sense since we've seen China doesn't skip out on opportunities. This is a big one to counter the global Western order. So they certainly have an interest in the Ukraine conflict ending a certain way. We obviously want a clear Russian defeat, as you've stated.

So what's the Chinese hope in how this conflict plays out? What's their ideal endgame here? China was hoping that United States will be pinned down in areas far away from China. So China can carry out its own plan of migration in Indo-Pacific.

and beyond. That's why I mentioned about the Ukrainian war has become China's proxy war. Not only that, China is actively supporting Iran, which is the master of all these disabilities in the Middle East. So China has to provide the Iranians, signed a deal with the Iranians seven weeks after Trump, after Biden became the president, that's worth $400 billion.

China has influenced Iran tremendously. And you know the Hamas?

China never come out to explain why there's a huge cache of Chinese made weapons in the tunnels and fortresses of Hamas in Gaza. And I don't know what kind of relationship China has with Hezbollah, but I don't think China is going to be sort of stand idly by without providing those kinds of lethal weapons or technical support for America's enemies. So not only that,

China also is behind some other rogue nations in creating trouble, most obviously Venezuela in Latin America. Venezuela wants to annex two-thirds of its neighbor Guyana and makes everybody nervous. That's why China wants to keep America's focus and assets

farthest away in all the other trouble spots and China was promoting those troubles. So this is China's strategic game. And I think our job is to make sure that we will not be distracted by that, to make sure that the rest of the world is peaceful, to focus on the aggression in the Pacific. And we have done tremendously in that during the Trump administration. In order to

make the shift effective, the shift of America's strategic focus away from Europe, the Middle East, to Indo-Pacific. We convinced and cajoled NATO allies to beef up their spending and their capabilities building in Europe. And also in the Middle East, we conducted a historic

project is called the Abrahamic Accords, forcing Israel's friends to recognize Israel's right to exist and to sign deals. So it's not necessarily kumbaya, but it's very close. That's the most

and most significant development so that the United States will be able to get out of the mess in the Middle East and in Europe with focus on Indo-Pacific with China at the center. So to close the loop on this, and then I do want to get to our final topic, but if I'm putting the puzzle pieces together that you've laid out,

Based on their interests, it essentially behooves the Chinese to assist in keeping Ukraine a quasi stalemate to try and both shift American focus and drive up our financial cost of continuing the war.

And then that also explains why when Zelensky looks to China for mediation or help with settlement, they're less than helpful because to end their, what you've called a proxy war is to allow the US focus and resources to return to them. Am I putting that together right based on what you've been saying? Yeah, you're very close. And I think China is casting the United States as the ultimate villain for the war in Ukraine.

It never condemned Russia's aggression. United States is the ultimate culprit for the war in Ukraine. So that's why China is selling its phony peace plan, along with the countries like Brazil, to broker a settlement in Ukraine.

in Rochester's favor. And this Chinese plan, China-Brazilian plan, has been rejected by Zelensky because obviously it's not in his country's interest. So what really China is doing is to destroy American's leadership.

global leadership to discredit America's leadership role in war and peace. So that's why China is playing the long game and we've been hearing about this all along. The more and more you look at it and when you call it a proxy war, things like that, the more and more it feels

like we've talked before and has been mentioned many times, including at the Hudson Institute, of this feeling like a new Cold War. So moving to our final topic, there is a new prime minister in Japan, Shigeru Ishiba. Miles, with all of this pretext of our first two topics, as the environment that this new prime minister is coming into, who is this guy? Where is he on the China-US axis now?

And what else do we need to know? Well, many people are not very familiar with Mr. Ishiba and considering him a dark horse. He's a dark horse because a few people expect to win. But he did win decisively. Ishiba is a China hawk. Okay. Even though his image 20 years ago was not. He was very conciliatory to China. But China has changed. So has Japan. The incumbent president

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was considered soft on China as well. He is earlier in his life as a politician, but now he's probably most consequential Japanese prime minister in decades. And he is now a China hawk. Not only that, he has made the plan completely shifted Japan's defense posturing. He project Japan as not just a leader,

of security for the region, but also he sort of made Japan a global leader in security and peace. I think that Ichiban will continue the legacy of Prime Ministers Abe and Kishida, continue to build Japan's self-defense capability, and continue to work very closely with the United States.

But nowadays, to be a China hawk is probably the easiest thing in Japan because of China's aggression. And most importantly, Ishiba also is keen on improving Japan-Taiwan relations. He visited Taiwan more than 10 times. Last time, just a little bit over a month ago in August. As a matter of fact, it was in Taiwan when

Mr. Ishiba announced his plan to compete for the prime minister position. With the United States, he wants to be treated more equitably by the United States, but he's totally willing to even station troops in the U.S. even. He wants to send troops in the U.S. for training and enhancement of interoperability between the two militaries. But Mr. Ishiba is perhaps best known for his advocate for Asian NATO.

He wants to have a NATO-like alliance in Asia. Japan will be a member of that. So it's either expansion of NATO membership to include Asian countries like Japan, Australia, New Zealand,

Or you create a NATO-like alliance in Asia, Japan and Australia, all the like-minded countries will be in it. Miles, that sounds so familiar. I don't know where I've heard that before. Well, you hear it from me many times. I've been saying this for years. So I think that's why I think he's right. No, I love to see it.

Does he have any other key stances that you want to highlight just in closing? Well, he was not only has a very strong defense background, he was defense minister, I said. He also served in the economic sector. He was an agriculture minister at one point. So he understood domestic politics as well. Domestic policies, Japanese economic issue. So I think this is a pretty well-rounded politician. Well, he's coming into a very interesting environment. I think all of our topics blended well.

together well today and just paint a picture of how active the region and the world is and just how big of a role China is actively looking to play in it to counter the West. And so we'll be watching all this. And thank you, Miles, for your insight as always. Thank you very much. I feel so glad to be with you. All right. We'll see you next week. Thank you for listening to this episode of China Insider. I'd also like to thank our executive producer, Philip Hexeth.

who works tirelessly and professionally behind the scenes for every episode to make sure we deliver the best quality podcast to you, the listeners. If you enjoy the show, please spread the word. For Chinese listeners, please check our monthly review and analysis episode in Chinese. We'll see you next time.