cover of episode Why AI’s Next Leap Forward Is ‘Long Thinking’

Why AI’s Next Leap Forward Is ‘Long Thinking’

2024/12/13
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WSJ Tech News Briefing

People
D
Danny Lewis
一名专注于技术和未来趋势的记者和播客主持人,目前工作于《华尔街_journal》。
S
Stephen Rosenbush
Topics
Danny Lewis:通用汽车公司关闭Cruise项目为Waymo带来了绝佳的发展机遇,使其在自动驾驶出租车领域占据更显著的领先地位。Waymo目前在该领域几乎没有竞争对手,这使其拥有先发优势。然而,Waymo的成功扩张仍然面临挑战,包括盈利能力和安全问题。Waymo的运营成本很高,包括技术、传感器和计算机等方面,这给其盈利能力带来了挑战。此外,安全问题也是Waymo需要持续关注和解决的关键问题。Waymo正在积极扩张其自动驾驶出租车服务,并与Uber合作,目标是覆盖更多城市,但其能否在全国范围内复制其在旧金山的成功仍存在疑问。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is General Motors shutting down its Cruise robotaxi program?

General Motors cited competition, time, and the high costs required to scale the business as reasons for shutting down Cruise.

What impact does General Motors' decision to shut down Cruise have on Waymo?

General Motors' decision to shut down Cruise significantly widens Waymo's lead in the robo-taxi industry, as Cruise was one of Waymo's biggest competitors.

What challenges does Waymo face in expanding its robotaxi services?

Waymo faces challenges in making the service profitable due to high costs associated with technology, sensors, and computers, as well as maintaining safety and avoiding accidents during expansion.

What is 'long thinking' in the context of AI?

'Long thinking' refers to AI models that take more time to reason and solve complex problems, inspired by the human cognitive system known as system two, which involves effortful mental activities.

How does 'long thinking' improve AI capabilities?

'Long thinking' allows AI to solve more complex problems in areas like math, coding, and science by taking more time to reason, step back, and try different approaches, reducing errors and hallucinations.

What are the potential benefits of AI with long-thinking capabilities?

AI with long-thinking capabilities can tackle more complex problems, such as predicting weather, advancing genetics, and improving personalized medicine, by dedicating more computing power over extended periods.

What concerns are raised by the development of long-thinking AI?

Concerns include the potential misuse of the technology to create societal problems, the need for guardrails, and questions about public oversight versus company-level control.

Chapters
General Motors' decision to shut down its Cruise robotaxi program presents a significant opportunity for Waymo, widening its lead in the industry. Waymo's success in San Francisco, expansion into Los Angeles, and partnerships with companies like Uber are discussed, along with challenges such as profitability and safety concerns.
  • General Motors shuts down Cruise robotaxi program
  • Waymo's expanding operations in Los Angeles, Austin, Atlanta, and Miami
  • Challenges for Waymo include profitability and safety

Shownotes Transcript

A new generation of artificial intelligence models will take its time) to reason, providing more reliable answers to increasingly complex questions. WSJ bureau chief and columnist Steven Rosenbush joins host Belle Lin to talk about why ‘long thinking’ could be part of the long game for AI. Plus, what General Motors’s decision to scrap its Cruise) robotaxi program means for Waymo, the robotaxi company owned by Google parent Alphabet. WSJ’s Danny Lewis looked into it as part of a special podcast series “Driverless: Waymo and the Robototaxi Race).”

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