cover of episode OpenAI’s GPT-5 Is Behind Schedule. What Happened?

OpenAI’s GPT-5 Is Behind Schedule. What Happened?

2024/12/23
logo of podcast WSJ Tech News Briefing

WSJ Tech News Briefing

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Deepa Seetharaman
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Nicole Nguyen
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Nicole Nguyen: 数字礼物并非只能是千篇一律的礼品卡。通过选择合适的订阅服务,例如Netflix、iCloud存储空间或语言学习应用Babbel,可以使数字礼物更有意义和个性化。 对于追求创意的用户,可以选择旅行应用Time Shifter或生产力工具Forest等。 除了订阅服务,还可以选择一次性付费的应用,例如烹饪应用Crouton Plus或游戏Animal Crossing Pocket Camp Complete。 为了提升送礼体验,建议打印礼品卡并进行包装,并附赠一些与礼物相关的物品,例如瑜伽毛巾或法棍面包。 Deepa Seetharaman: GPT-5的研发面临诸多挑战,主要体现在以下几个方面: 1. 数据挑战:模型规模的扩大需要不成比例地增加数据量,而高质量数据的获取日益困难。OpenAI尝试使用合成数据,但这存在模型崩溃的风险。 2. 人才需求:需要高水平的软件工程师、数学家甚至理论物理学家来解决复杂的研发问题,并将其解决方案反馈到模型中。 3. 评估标准:目前对GPT-5的评估主要集中在代码和数学方面,对于其他方面的评估则较为主观,缺乏统一的标准。 4. 成本高昂:GPT-4的训练成本已超过1亿美元,未来模型的成本预计将超过10亿美元,这给OpenAI带来了巨大的财务压力。 GPT-5的延迟发布可能对OpenAI的业务造成影响,因为高期望值会带来更高的风险。虽然OpenAI可以继续改进模型,但在创造下一个数量级的突破方面,仍存在不确定性。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why has OpenAI delayed the launch of GPT-5?

The delay is due to several challenges, including the need for more data, the complexity of model design, and the risk of synthetic data causing model collapse. OpenAI is also grappling with defining what GPT-5 should achieve, as current evaluations rely heavily on gut feelings rather than clear metrics.

What are the key challenges OpenAI faces in developing GPT-5?

The main challenges include a data gap, the need for synthetic data, and the difficulty in defining the model's capabilities. OpenAI is also hiring specialized talent to help solve complex problems and feed that knowledge into the model.

How much does it cost to train a model like GPT-4 or GPT-5?

Training GPT-4 cost over $100 million, and future models like GPT-5 are expected to exceed $1 billion in costs. The expense is primarily due to the computational resources required for such large-scale AI models.

What is synthetic data, and why is it important for GPT-5?

Synthetic data is data generated by AI, which is then fed back into the model to help it grow. It’s crucial for GPT-5 because there’s a significant gap between the projected size of the model and the available real-world data. However, synthetic data carries risks, such as causing model collapse if the wrong type of data is introduced.

What are the expectations for GPT-5's capabilities?

Expectations are high, ranging from automating tasks like booking flights and appointments to predicting user needs and reducing mistakes. The model is expected to 'wow' users with its capabilities, but there’s no clear consensus on what exactly GPT-5 should achieve.

How does the delay in GPT-5's launch affect OpenAI's business?

The delay could impact OpenAI’s competitive position, as the company has set high expectations for GPT-5 as a significant step forward. If the model fails to meet these expectations, it’s unclear how the business will respond, though there’s still potential for incremental improvements.

What are some creative digital gift ideas for the holidays?

Creative digital gifts include subscriptions to apps like Time Shifter for travelers, Babbel for language learning, and password managers. One-time fee apps like Crouton Plus for cooking and Animal Crossing Pocket Camp for gaming are also popular choices.

How can digital gifts be made more personal?

Digital gifts can be made more personal by printing out gift cards, wrapping them, and including a related accessory. For example, a yoga app subscription could come with a yoga towel, or a Netflix gift card could be paired with popcorn.

Chapters
This segment explores the potential of digital gifts as thoughtful presents, challenging the conventional view of gift cards as impersonal. It offers various examples of digital gifts, ranging from subscriptions to apps, and suggests ways to make them feel more personal.
  • Digital gifts can be as thoughtful as traditional presents.
  • Examples include Netflix subscriptions, iCloud storage, language learning apps, and password managers.
  • Presentation is key; wrapping the digital gift card and adding a small, related physical item enhances the experience.

Shownotes Transcript

OpenAI has delayed the launch of its highly-anticipated GPT-5 model. WSJ tech reporter Deepa Seetharaman explains why and what this means for the company at ground zero of the AI boom. Plus, why a thoughtful digital gift) might be the way to go if you’re still doing your Christmas shopping. Danny Lewis hosts.

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