The delay is due to several challenges, including the need for more data, the complexity of model design, and the risk of synthetic data causing model collapse. OpenAI is also grappling with defining what GPT-5 should achieve, as current evaluations rely heavily on gut feelings rather than clear metrics.
The main challenges include a data gap, the need for synthetic data, and the difficulty in defining the model's capabilities. OpenAI is also hiring specialized talent to help solve complex problems and feed that knowledge into the model.
Training GPT-4 cost over $100 million, and future models like GPT-5 are expected to exceed $1 billion in costs. The expense is primarily due to the computational resources required for such large-scale AI models.
Synthetic data is data generated by AI, which is then fed back into the model to help it grow. It’s crucial for GPT-5 because there’s a significant gap between the projected size of the model and the available real-world data. However, synthetic data carries risks, such as causing model collapse if the wrong type of data is introduced.
Expectations are high, ranging from automating tasks like booking flights and appointments to predicting user needs and reducing mistakes. The model is expected to 'wow' users with its capabilities, but there’s no clear consensus on what exactly GPT-5 should achieve.
The delay could impact OpenAI’s competitive position, as the company has set high expectations for GPT-5 as a significant step forward. If the model fails to meet these expectations, it’s unclear how the business will respond, though there’s still potential for incremental improvements.
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OpenAI has delayed the launch of its highly-anticipated GPT-5 model. WSJ tech reporter Deepa Seetharaman explains why and what this means for the company at ground zero of the AI boom. Plus, why a thoughtful digital gift) might be the way to go if you’re still doing your Christmas shopping. Danny Lewis hosts.
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