cover of episode Can India Change Course?

Can India Change Course?

2024/9/6
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The Foreign Affairs Interview

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D
Dan Kurtz-Fallin
P
Pratap Bhanu Mehta
Topics
Dan Kurtz-Fallin认为莫迪政府的经济表现未能达到预期,莫迪的权力有所下降,但印度民主依然面临挑战。他提出疑问,莫迪政府的政策是否发生了转变,以及联盟政府是否更适合印度的治理模式。 Pratap Bhanu Mehta认为莫迪的权力有所下降,反对党获得授权,独立机构显示出更多独立性,为印度民主争取了喘息空间。但他指出,印度民主的安全性仍有待观察,取决于政府的行动和反对党的回应。他分析了BJP在选举中遭遇挫折的原因,包括莫迪个人威信下降、经济问题和印度教民族主义的疲惫感。他认为莫迪在六月份的选举挫折不足以扭转民族主义的浪潮,因为印度教民族主义的文化项目和暴力极化项目尚未减弱。他指出莫迪政府近期宣布的措施大多被迫转向或搁置,似乎失去了行政控制力,但仇恨言论和暴力行为持续存在。他还讨论了联盟政府的利弊,反对党的未来前景,以及印度司法、言论自由和少数群体权利的现状。他认为印度需要更好地平衡经济增长,解决不平等问题,并提高人力资本质量。在外交政策方面,他认为莫迪政府的国际形象在国内政治中仍然有影响力,但实际外交政策与自我宣传相比,延续性大于变化。他分析了“文明国家”的概念,认为印度缺乏对外军事扩张的意愿。最后,他认为莫迪的成功并非揭示了印度隐藏的非自由主义核心,而是自由主义中心左翼治理的失败为印度教民族主义提供了可乘之机。 Pratap Bhanu Mehta详细分析了莫迪政府执政十年来的表现,以及印度当前面临的政治、经济和社会挑战。他认为莫迪政府的经济政策并未取得预期的成功,反而加剧了社会不平等,中产阶级面临困境。他批评莫迪政府增加了监管和税收的不确定性,并偏袒某些企业集团,导致私人投资未能有效增长。他还指出,印度教民族主义的文化项目和暴力极化项目仍在继续,对少数群体的迫害没有减少。在政治方面,他认为莫迪政府的权力有所下降,但反对党需要证明其执政能力,并对印度教民族主义提出更精细的回应。他还分析了印度司法、言论自由和少数群体权利的现状,认为这些方面都面临挑战。在外交政策方面,他认为莫迪政府的国际形象与其实际外交政策存在差异,印度的安全形势比十年前更加严峻。他认为印度需要一个广泛的执政联盟,确保不同社会群体都能感受到政府的代表性,并需要在维护统一原则的同时,允许与这些原则相容的多样性。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Modi's third term as Prime Minister was unexpected, as his party failed to secure a parliamentary majority. This unexpected outcome has weakened Modi's authority and created more uncertainty about India's future. The article explores the reasons behind this unexpected result.
  • Modi's BJP failed to win a parliamentary majority in the elections.
  • Modi's authority has diminished.
  • The opposition is empowered.
  • Speculation surrounds the reasons for the BJP's setbacks.

Shownotes Transcript

In June, Narendra Modi was sworn in for a third consecutive term as India’s prime minister. But—in a surprise outcome—his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, failed to win a parliamentary majority. Now, for the first time, Modi sits atop a coalition government—and India’s path forward appears far less certain, and far more interesting, than seemed plausible not long ago.

Pratap Bhanu Mehta is one of India’s wisest political observers—a great political theorist and writer as well as a fierce critic, and occasional target, of Modi and his policies. *Foreign Affairs *Senior Editor Kanishk Tharoor spoke with him on September 3 about what the election means for Indian democracy and where the country goes from here.

You can find transcripts and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview).