cover of episode Antony Blinken on American Foreign Policy in a Turbulent Age

Antony Blinken on American Foreign Policy in a Turbulent Age

2024/12/18
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Dan Kurtz-Fallin
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Antony Blinken: 本次访谈主要回顾了过去四年美国外交政策的实践与挑战,重点关注俄乌战争、中美关系、以及中东地区冲突,并对未来美国外交政策走向做出展望。Blinken 认为后冷战时代已经结束,世界正处于一个新的竞争时代,美国面临来自多个修正主义国家的挑战,这些国家试图重塑国际体系以符合自身利益。他强调了美国在拜登政府上任初期面临的经济、健康和联盟关系等多重挑战,并指出通过国内投资和外交努力,美国已经恢复了实力。他还分析了中俄伊朝联盟的潜在威胁,以及美国如何通过与盟友合作来应对这些挑战。关于乌克兰战争,Blinken 阐述了美国对乌克兰的援助策略,以及在避免与俄罗斯直接冲突的同时,支持乌克兰抵抗侵略的平衡策略。他还谈到了对华政策,强调美国的目标不是改变中国的政权,而是通过与其他国家合作来限制中国的行为。在中东问题上,Blinken 认为结束加沙战争和实现两国方案对实现以色列与沙特阿拉伯关系正常化至关重要,并阐述了美国为实现这一目标所做的努力。最后,Blinken 对未来美国外交政策的走向表示乐观,并强调了联盟和伙伴关系的重要性。 Dan Kurtz-Fallin: Dan Kurtz-Fallin 在访谈中主要扮演提问者的角色,引导 Antony Blinken 阐述其对美国外交政策的观点,并就俄乌战争、中美关系、中东冲突等问题进行深入探讨。他向 Blinken 提出了尖锐的问题,例如美国对乌克兰援助策略的有效性、对华政策的局限性,以及两国方案的可行性等。他的提问帮助 Blinken 更清晰地阐述其观点,并使访谈内容更加丰富和全面。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why has the geopolitical landscape changed so dramatically since Joe Biden took office?

The geopolitical landscape has changed due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Hamas's attack on Israel, and Chinese aggression in the Taiwan Strait, all of which have reshaped global conflicts and shifted focus to potential theaters of combat.

What role has Antony Blinken played in shaping U.S. foreign policy during these turbulent times?

Antony Blinken has been at the forefront of U.S. foreign policy, engaging with allies and adversaries, negotiating, and helping to redefine American engagement with the world through strategic initiatives and alliances.

What are the key challenges the U.S. faces in the current geopolitical environment?

The U.S. faces challenges from revisionist powers like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, who seek to reshape the international system to their advantage, as well as the rapid pace of technological change and the perception of U.S. decline.

How has the U.S. responded to the perception of decline and restored its position of strength?

The U.S. has made historic investments in infrastructure, technology, and energy, restored alliances, and re-engaged with partners, which has restored American competitiveness and leadership globally.

What is the significance of foreign direct investment in U.S. foreign policy?

Foreign direct investment reflects trust and confidence in the U.S. economy and future, reduces dependencies on countries like China, and strengthens economic ties, which are crucial for maintaining global influence.

How has the U.S. managed the risk of escalation in its support for Ukraine?

The U.S. has provided Ukraine with necessary support while carefully balancing the risk of direct conflict with Russia, ensuring that NATO remains a strong deterrent against Russian aggression.

What is the U.S. strategy for dealing with the adversarial grouping of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea?

The U.S. aims to build bridges between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific theaters, strengthen alliances, and de-risk from China, while exposing the alignment of these countries to weaken their partnerships.

What is the future outlook for Ukraine if the U.S. and its allies continue to support it?

Ukraine has a future as a strong, independent, and integrated Western nation, capable of defending itself militarily, economically, and democratically, with continued support from the U.S. and its allies.

How does the U.S. view the role of China in the global order?

The U.S. sees China as a competitor that seeks to reshape the international system, but it aims to compete responsibly, avoiding regime change, and finding ways to coexist while countering China's aggressive policies.

What is the U.S. approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the two-state solution?

The U.S. supports a durable ceasefire in Gaza and a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, which is essential for Israel's security and regional integration, despite the current challenges to the two-state solution.

Chapters
Secretary Blinken reflects on the current geopolitical challenges, highlighting the end of the post-Cold War era and the rise of revisionist powers. He emphasizes the impact of rapid technological change, past crises, and the perception of U.S. decline on the current state of global affairs. He also notes the steps taken to restore U.S. competitiveness and re-engage with alliances.
  • End of the post-Cold War era
  • Rise of revisionist powers (Iran, North Korea, Russia, China)
  • Rapid technological change
  • Past crises (economic, health, democratic divisions)
  • Restoration of U.S. competitiveness
  • Re-engagement with alliances

Shownotes Transcript

In the four years since U.S. President Joe Biden took office, the geopolitical landscape has radically changed. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought war back to Europe. Hamas’s October 7 assault on Israel sparked a widening conflict in an already chaotic Middle East. And Chinese aggression in the Taiwan Strait has refocused attention on the Indo-Pacific as a possible theater of combat.

Through it all, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been at the helm of U.S. foreign policy: shuttling between capitals, negotiating with allies and adversaries, and helping shape a vision for American engagement with the world—a vision he laid out in a recent essay for Foreign Affairs

Now, on the eve of Donald Trump’s return to office, Blinken reflects on the geopolitical challenges facing the United States today—and offers lessons from his own tenure for American foreign policy going forward.

You can find sources, transcripts, and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview).